My Way Too Early 2020 Oscar Predictions

And the Nominees Could Possibly Be...

*Ad Astra
*Ford v. Ferarri
*Harriet
*The Irishman
*Knives Out
*The Last Thing He Wanted
*Little Women
*Lucy in the Sky
*Nomadland
*Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

How many will I get right? How many will I get wrong? Will anybody give a damn? Let's get started. Of this year's crop, The Irishman appears, this early on, as the likeliest nominee. Netflix finally broke into the main competition last year and were, likely, close to taking it. With this film, they got a murderer's row of powerhouse names; Scorsese, Zailian, De Niro, Pacino, Pesci. It would be stunning if those names, together, didn't produce something noteworthy. After that, I took the smoothest road and went with high-profile filmmakers with buzzy new titles. While The Hateful Eight didn't perform as well as expected, Tarantino's coming to Hollywood for his next film (always an aid come awards season), and he's bring some of it's biggest stars with him. If the movie is as good as it's loaded cast and starry setting promise, then I can't imagine it isn't a major player. Same goes for Gerwig, too, who broke through big time with Lady Bird, becoming the only woman this decade nominated for Best Director (along with a Best Picture nomination, of course). This time, she's bringing her own style to a story that's been told numerous times; if it's as fresh as her first film, we're in for a treat.

Speaking of female directors, this year looks like it could be a major turning point for them in BP. Where most year's are lucky to get one, I've got four listed for this outing. Coming off of Mudbound, most eyes will be on Dee Rees to see if she can build off of that film's success. It scored four nominations, and came close to the BP cut. With The Last Thing She Wanted, she's got a star-fronted political-thriller with Netflix backing. While I'd say that it's one of my shakier picks here, I'm banking on Rees talent. Mudbound showed she could do a sprawling ensemble saga; I expect that she can make an expert thriller. Another name I'm going with is Chloé Zhao. She's making the leap to larger-scale independent film after micro-budget ones. Both of her previous features have scored raves, and she's moving into a larger arena for Nomadland. With Frances McDormand starring, fresh off an Oscar win (and continued respect), Fox Searchlight backing, and a timely story ("A woman in her sixties who, after losing everything in the Great Recession, embarks on a journey through the American West, living as a van-dwelling modern-day nomad"), I see a prosperous awards-season for her film. While I could very well see Harriet end up being much more of an actor's showcase that a larger player, the first major biopic of the legendary Harriet Tubman should draw major attention. There's always a biopic in the race, and this year looks pretty light on them; if it's strong enough, it may be able to make it in on sheen alone. Plus, if it is good, the backlash would be deafening if it wasn't a contender.

My remaining picks are the type of curios that could make huge impact, or become blips on the radar. Holdover picks aren't usually great for me (Thank You for Your Service banged me up for a couple of years), but Ad Astra, on paper, looks like it could really be something big. It's got the cast, the crew, and the story to hit voters hard. I think it could do some damage. I, honestly, didn't have Lucy in the Sky in this lineup, at first. I reconsidered after that mesmerizing trailer, though. If the actual film is as engrossing as it's trailer, and if it isn't too opaque, it could burst into this race in a big way. As could Knives Out, an all-star modern-day whodunit from Rian Johnson. Johnson hasn't had a miss yet and, with this cast in this story, I think it could be enough of a critical darling to make the cut. Finally, there's Ford v. Ferrari. It would be, likely, the most stately of the nominees; the kind of movie that would've gone over big a few decades ago, but now will settle for respect and nominations. It got pushed back from the Summer to November; i.e. the studio sees a contender on their hands, or they think it'll be easy to sell over the holiday season. Mangold's track record (he's coming off a nod for Logan, no small feat), the exceptional cast, and the old school story were enough to sway me on this one's potential.

The Next Five

*The King
*The Laundromat
*The Report
*Us
*The Woman in the Window

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
**The Irishman**

And the Nominees Could Possibly Be...

*James Grey- Ad Astra
*Noah Hawley- Lucy in the Sky
*Dee Rees- The Last Thing He Wanted
*Martin Scorsese- The Irishman
*Chloé Zhao- Nomadland

The Next Five

*Rian Johnson- Knives Out
*Kasi Lemmons- Harriet
*Greta Gerwig- Little Women
*Jordan Peele- Us
*Quentin Tarantino- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
**Martin Scorsese- The Irishman**

And the Nominees Could Possibly Be...

*Amy Adams- The Woman in the Window
*Cynthia Erivo- Harriet
*Frances McDormand- Nomadland
*Lupita Nyong'o- Us
*Natalie Portman- Lucy in the Sky

If the performances here, somehow, match the level of hype around them, then this may be the best group of Best Actress nominees that this category has ever seen. If they all live up to their potential, it'll still be a major headache whittling this down to five nominees next January. Still, I went for it, and I expect to see all five of these women in the running. Adams, Erivo, McDormand and Portman seemed like the safe bets for me (well, Portman made it when the trailer for her movie dropped). Erivo had a, minor, breakout year in 2018, and she's playing Harriet Tubman in her first genuine lead role; if the movie gets enough attention, she could be your winner. Adams, too, could finally break her drought here; director Joe Wright usually does well by his actors, and Adams is one of the most consistently great ones out there. As is Portman, who looks to get a major showcase in Lucy in the Sky; just watch the trailer and try to convince me that she won't be in the running this year.

McDormand is one of the most respected women in Hollywood, and she's coming off her second win; even if Nomadland doesn't meet expectations, I'd venture to say that she's got enough respect and admiration to make the cut (if it does though, she could be looking at a potential third Oscar). While there are a number of contenders, the last spot came down to Nyong'o and Robbie. Both have been nominated before (N'yongo's won before), and both have hotly observed projects; Robbie as Sharon Tate, and Nyong'o in a duel role that is, already, garnering her buzz. It was a coin flip, really, but Nyong'o seems like the more viable contender here; Peele's last movie scored a lead nomination, and she's already getting incredible notices. Also, while race isn't key to her nomination, the lingering fact that only 11 women of African descent have been nominated here in 91 years will likely play a role in the next awards season, with both her and Erivo have prominent roles. Robbie will likely give a strong performance, but Tarantino movies don't have a great record in lead categories (John Travolta is the only person that's been able to breakthrough), and there's always a shot that she could end up going in the supporting category.

The Next Five

*Anne Hathaway- The Last Thing He Wanted
*Melissa McCarthy- The Kitchen
*Margot Robbie- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
*Saiorse Ronan- Little Women
*Meryl Streep- The Laundromat

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
**Cynthia Erivo- Harriet**

And the Nominees Could Possibly Be...

*Christian Bale- Ford v. Ferrari
*Robert De Niro- The Irishman
*Tom Hardy- Fonzo
*Eddie Murphy- Dolemite Is My Name
*Joaquin Phoenix- Joker

Lead actor is, as always, likely to feature mostly return contenders. De Niro was the easiest pick; he and Martin Scorsese have crafted some of cinemas finest characters, and I'm optimistic that they'll do it again this time. Bale could easily be swapped out for Matt Damon (whoever get's the juiciest material in Ford v. Ferarri will be the nominee), but he's got the better track record for acting nomination, so he feels the safest. The Joker is always a character that draws attention, and Phoenix's spin on the character will be no exception. While I'm not sold that the movie will be much of a player, Phoenix is a respected actor who looks to have gotten deep in an psychologically complex character.

The same appears to be true of Hardy, playing the explosive and unpredictable Al Capone. The Academy loves makeup-heavy performances, and Hardy will likely get a lot of big, crazed moments to impress voters. There were a few contenders for the fifth spot, but Murphy was the one that caught me eye. Dolemite Is My Name looks like the kind of film that could be a sleeper hit. There's some surprisingly strong names behind the camera, as director Craig Brewer aided Terrance Howard to an Oscar nom for Hustle & Flow; writers Scott Alexander & Larry Karaszewski have a long list of impress films, several that gave their leads a lot to work with. This early out, that's enough for me.

The Next Five

*Timothée Chalamet- The King
*Matt Damon- Ford v. Ferrari
*Leonardo DiCaprio- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
*Taron Edgerton- Rocketman
*Tom Hanks- A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
**Robert De Niro- The Irishman**

And the Nominees Could Possibly Be...

*Willem Dafoe- The Last Thing He Wanted
*Joel Edgerton- The King
*Damon Herriman- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
*John Lithgow- Fair and Balanced
*Joe Pesci- The Irishman

Both supporting categories are, almost always, messy. They're such odd categories, ones that fluxate better genuinely great performances and, just, okay ones from overdo actors. With that in mind, the easiest choice here is Pesci. It's his first major role in a film in almost a decade, and his first re-team with Scorsese since Casino in 1995. Considering his only two Oscar nods, and one win, came from working with the director, it's widely expected that he'll have another banner performance in the film. That said, there are so many guys in The Irishman that could contend that it isn't unreasonable to see him miss out in favor of one of his costars. After him, I'd say I feel okay with putting Dafoe here. He's scored two straight nominations, and is gaining a reputation as someone who's due for an Oscar. We've seen that Dee Rees can direct Oscar-level performances, and pairing her with someone as strong as Dafoe, in a prominent and, likely, scene-stealing role, could work out well for both of them.

Lithgow's been doing quite well lately, and he's scored another high profile, makeup-heavy, character for Fair and Balanced; Roger Ailes. He's a respected character actor playing a real life figure, which is catnip for voters. That said, Ailes was such a vile person that one wonders what the film's characterization will be. If he's one-note monster, than it may be a tough sell to voters; if there's some complexity to him, than Lithgow could find himself nominated. Here's to assuming it's the latter. Edgerton's been on the cusp of a nod for a few years now, slowly but surely scoring strong roles in film's that don't quite pop. The King could change that. He's playing Falstaff, a larger than life character that could give the actor several chances to steal scenes (the fact that he co-wrote the script could help insure this). If the film hits hard enough, he could be a major contender (though he's got a few costars, one of which is mentioned below, that could steal his thunder). Quentin Tarantino usually has one major contender in the supporting categories; Christoph Waltz won twice, and five of his films have scored supporting nominations (four in supporting actor). While there are a stunning number of possibilities for his new film, I suspect the focus will be on Damon Herriman, who is playing none other than Charles Manson. While it's unclear how much he'll factor into the film, my gut says that Tarantino will have some queasy, unsettling scenes in store with the character. It also bodes well for the performance that Herriman is playing Manson for two high-end directors; he's not just playing him here, but in Mindhunter for David Fincher. It could just end up being a cameo, but I'm willing to play a hunch this early on.

The Next Five

*Tommy Lee Jones- Ad Astra
*Ben Mendelsohn- The King
*Al Pacino- The Irishman
*Brad Pitt- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
*Dan Stevens- Lucy in the Sky

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
**Willem Dafoe- The Last Thing He Wanted**

And the Nominees Could Possibly Be...

*Jamie Lee Curtis- Knives Out
*Nicole Kidman- Fair and Balanced
*Janelle Monáe- Harriet
*Elisabeth Moss- The Kitchen
*Meryl Streep- Little Women

This is always a tough category to predict, even when actual voting commences. I've gone six for 25 in the last five lists I've done; I'm bad at this, so expect that trend to continue. Thankfully, Meryl Streep in the mix will, likely, give me one right guess. She's nominated for, almost, everything she's in, and Little Women looks to be a major contender. It's possible that she splits a few votes with some of her costars (the movie's cast is stacked), but history has shown that it's unwise to bet against Streep. After that, Kidman is a solid bet, as long as she goes supporting. The Fair and Balanced cast is loaded with big names playing real people, in a movie condemning Fox News; much like this year's Vice, it feels destined to make an impact. While I don't think it'll be as successful as that film (it feels like too opportunist to the current #MeToo movement to hit organically), I expect, at the very least, one female acting nod, and Kidman's been on a hell of a run the past few years.

With The Handmaid's Tale being one of the most high profile series around, Moss has seen her profile tick up in the past few years. While I'm unsure how much of a factor The Kitchen will be this awards season, it'll likely be an excellent showcase for several women, and the logline of her character ("a timid wife of an abusive husband who falls in love with the violence of her new life") stands out as being the most award-ready. Monáe has picked up some big roles lately, with her performance in Hidden Figures, likely, getting her close to a nomination. While her role in Harriet is unknown so far, I expect that the film will give numerous women of color the chance to shine, and her performance to be chief among them. My last spot comes down to Fanning and Curtis; both are in films that I expect to be major contenders, working from scripts by two auteurs. It was close, but my gut said Curtis; she's never been nominated before, and I suspect her role in Knives Out will be a standout. Fanning has a solid shot though, as long as she's in the film for more than a scene, which was the main reason I left her off; there are so many people in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood that I'm not sure who's getting the juicy roles, and who's getting the oddball cameos (though her role as Squeaky Fromme seems like a bigger one than most).

The Next Five

*Laura Dern- Little Women
*Dakota Fanning- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
*Tiffany Haddish- The Kitchen
*Margot Robbie- Fair and Balanced
*Debra Winger- Untitled Miranda July Project

Will Win if She Goes Supporting

*Margot Robbie- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
**Nicole Kidman- Fair and Balanced**

And the Nominees Could Possibly Be...

*Ad Astra- James Gray & Ethan Gross
*Knives Out- Rian Johnson
*Lucy in the Sky- Brian C. Brown, Elliott DiGuiseppi and Noah Hawley
*Once Upon a Time in Hollywood- Quentin Tarantino
*Us- Jordan Peele

This early out, it appears that original screenplay won't be as strong as it's sibling for a second straight year. That said, there's some tantalizing prospects here. Peele and Tarantino have both won this category before, and are coming in with some major contenders (Peele's is already getting raves). While I'm not quite sure either can win this time out (Tarantino's got two, so voters might not be that enthused to give him another one; Peele's direction appears to be getting more press than his script this time out), I can't imagine that their names won't be in contention. Johnson came close to a nomination here with Looper, and the idea of him mounting an Agatha Christie-like whodunit seems too good to pass up. If he can pull it off, his hater's will be eating crow all season. Ad Astra and Lucy in the Sky, being the two of the three other original BP contenders in this category, feel like natural picks, though I think the former has a better chance; Grey's scripts explore big ideas at a ground level, and, if his work isn't too opaque, that can really connect with voters. Lucy looks, very much, like a director's film, with distinct filmmaking valued over screenwriting. If it doesn't connect here, I could definitely see Harriet swooping in to take it's spot.

The Next Five

*The Farewell- Lulu Wang
*Harriet- Gregory Allen Howard and Kasi Lemmons
*My Name Is Dolemite- Scott Alexander & Larry Karaszewski
*Untitled Miranda July Project- Miranda July
*Untitled Richard Linklater Project- Richard Linklater

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
**Quentin Tarantino- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood**

And the Nominees Could Possibly Be...

*The Irishman- Steven Zaillian
*The Last Thing He Wanted- Dee Rees and Marco Villalobos
*The Laundromat- Scott Z. Burns
*Little Women- Greta Gerwig
*Nomadland- Chloé Zhao

I expect The Irishman and Little Women to be major contenders here next year; if the former is going to compete for BP, it'll have to score a screenplay nod, and the latter is going off of a wave of support for Gerwig's last film. If I'm going with my expect Picture nominees, then The Last Thing She Wanted and Nomadland would be the ones to make the cut. Ree's last film scored her a nomination here, and I've got her in for best director; it's like putting two and two together. While Zhao's previous films have, certainly, been more director-oriented, over say writerly, Nomadland is larger film, and one, I suspect, to have broader appeal in the writing department. After that, things get a bit messy. I've got Ford v. Ferrari and The Woman in the Window in BP, but there are, typically, a few top nominees that miss out on screenplay; last year, two missed (Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody) and, overall, no year since the expansion has had all of the top prize nominees in for script.

So then, which won makes the cut? I'm going down the middle and going with neither. Both have strong shots, but head is telling me that they'll forgo both for Scott Z. Burns' work on The Laundromat. I'm not sure that the film with be as big a player as many do (it's been a long time since a Soderbergh movie was a player here), but I think Burns' work, which is usually at it's peak when paired with Soderbergh's direction, will hit all the important beats (respectability, timeliness, overdo-ness) and score the last spot. Still though, this category has a lot more contender's than it's sibling, so it's conceivable that none of these ten listed films will be players.

The Next Five

*A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood- Micah Fitzerman-Blue & Noah Harpster
*Ford v. Ferrari- Jez Butterworth, John-Henry Butterworth & Jason Keller and James Mangold
*Jojo Rabbit- Taika Waititi
*The King- David Michôd & Joel Edgerton
*The Woman in the Window- Tracy Letts

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
**Steven Zailian- The Irishman**

And the Nominees Could Possibly Be...

*The Addams Family
*Frozen 2
*How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
*Toy Story 4
*Wish Dragon

The Next Five

*Abominable
*The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part
*Missing Link
*Sonic the Hedgehog
*Spies in Disguise

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
**Toy Story 4**

And the Nominees Could Possibly Be...

*Terence Blanchard- Harriet
*Nathan Johnson- Knives Out
*Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross- The Woman in the Window
*Max Richter- Ad Astra
*John Williams- Star Wars: Episode IX

Williams has been nominated for the last two Stars Wars films, surprisingly so The Last Jedi (most expected his nod to be for The Post), and, considering he's a living legend who get's nominated nearly every time he composes a score, you should expect to see him nominated for the final film in the series. After that, it's a bit of a crap-shoot. Blanchard's coming off of his first nomination for BlacKkKlansman, and has another contender in his work on Harriet. If the film has as much pull as I'm expecting it to, I think he'll be in. Reznor & Ross have a win for 2010's The Social Network, but failed to score nominations for their following two, prominent David Fincher collaborations (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo and Gone Girl). Could they, finally, see themselves back in for The Woman in the Window? Director Joe Wright's got a solid track record here, with half of his six previous films scoring nominations here, including a win for Atonement. If they can strike a balance between their usual propulsive scores and a, more, classical one needed for this Rear Window-esque film, then I suspect they'll be major players.

More than most of the behind-the-camera categories, Best Score often adds some fresh blood to the mix; six of the nine winners this decade have been first time nominees. With that in mind, Johnson and Richter look, to me, to have the most potential here. Johnson's got a mystery film, one that'll, likely, tap into genre staples. If he can add some fresh and inventive notes, or simply arrange the old ones to precision, then I expect him to be a real threat (as long as the film is a player; maybe more than any other movie here, Johnson's film needs to be good for him to have a shot). Richter's been on the cusp of a breakout for awhile now, with his popular music and, recently, making the jump to feature scoring. I see Ad Astra as a major contender everywhere, including here; space films have a long history of doing well here, and I expect that to continue this year.

The Next Five

*Marco Beltrami- Ford v. Ferrari
*Christophe Beck- Frozen 2
*Carter Burwell- The Good Liar
*Randy Newman- Toy Story 4
*Jeff Russo- Lucy in the Sky

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
**Max Richter- Ad Astra**

And the Nominees Could Possibly Be...

*Frozen 2
*Frozen 2
*The Lion King
*Toy Story 4
*Waves

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
**Frozen 2**

And the Nominees Could Possibly Be...

*Adam Arkapaw- The King
*Roger Deakins- The Goldfinch
*Hoyte Van Hoytema- Ad Astra
*Polly Morgan- Lucy in the Sky
*Joshua James Richards- Nomadland

More than most categories, the Cinematographer's trophy is usually chock-full of returning nominees; essentially, I just went through the list of previous winners and nominees, and picked the ones with the most exciting projects. This'll be a real test for Deakins; now that he's, finally, won one, will the Academy continue to nominate him for every single project he does? I'm leaning towards yes, but I could easily see many who usually vote for him going with someone new. Of the rest, Hoytema's collaboration with James Grey sounds incredibly enticing; Grey's work is always visually lush, so pairing him with someone who's work is as striking as Hoytema's, on a space epic no less (he also shot Interstellar), is just too good sounding to pass up.

Morgan's work is the only that we've actually seen bits of, and she appears to have done some truly mesmerizing in Lucy in the Sky. If the film hit's, she may be a hell of a contender for the win (potentially becoming the first woman to do so). Arkapaw has been doing exceptional work for years and, even if the film doesn't deliver, it's hard for me to see that not continuing for The King, a historical epic. Richards has only a few credits to his name, but his work with director Chloé Zhao has been first rate, and with, likely, more eyes on their next collaboration, I think he'll start to get some serious recognition.

The Next Five

*Bruno Delbonnel- The Woman in the Window
*Mike Gioulakis- Us
*Rodrigo Prieto- The Irishman
*Robert Richardson- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
*Christopher Ross- Cats

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
**Hoyte Van Hoytema- Ad Astra**

And the Nominees Could Possibly Be...

*Colleen Atwood- Dumbo
*Julian Day- Rocketman
*Jacqueline Durran- Little Women
*Jane Petrie- The King
*Arianne Phillips- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

With this category, there's a pretty strong way to get a nomination; stay away from contemporary costumes. Period/Fantasy costumes, or hybrids, kill here, as do previous nominees; only eight of the 45 nominees this decade are first timers. With that in mind, Atwood and Durran look like they'll score another nomination; Atwood's won four, including one for Tim Burton's Alice in Wonderland (she also scored nominations for his Sleepy Hollow and Sweeney Todd; four of Burton's films have been nominated) and Dumbo looks to, again, give her space to craft some beautiful, vivid costumes. Durran's got a, likely, BP contender on her hands, and is a name brand here; 'nuff said. Petrie is, likely, the most unheard of name here (she has an Emmy for The Crown), but she's got a big shot with The King, working in a time and setting (England in the 15th/16th centuries), with some major backing behind it. If the film proves to be strong, she'll contend for the win; if it's only "okay", she'll, probably, still be a major contender.

The closer we get to now, the less likely I am with my last two picks. Quentin Tarantino's movies have never been a player here, even with his period westerns. The 1960s, too, has never had a real presence here (2007's Across the Universe is the only film firmly root in the decade to score a nomination). That said, Tarantino's vivid, distinct filmmaking, as well as some early shots of Phillips' designs, make this a pretty strong contender. The combination of late-60s and Hollywood styles may prove too hard to pass up. There are a lot of contenders for my last spot (for what it's worth, the other four would be ranked #1-4), but my gut says that Day's work for Elton John biopic Rocketman will make the cut. He came exceedingly close for the similarly themed Bohemian Rhapsody this past year and, based off the trailers for this one, he's designed some even more flamboyant and "big" costumes for this music-drama.

The Next Five

*Mark Bridges- Joker
*Alexandra Bryne- The Aeronauts
*Ruth E. Carter- Dolemite Is My Name
*Paco Delgado- Cats
*Paul Tazewell- Harriet

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
**Jacqueline Durran- Little Women**

And the Nominees Could Possibly Be...

*Ad Astra- Kevin Thompson and Karen O'Hara
*Cats- Eve Stewart and TBA Set Decorator
*Dumbo- Rich Heinrichs, John Bush and Cosmo Sarson
*The Irishman- Bob Shaw and Regina Graves
*The King- Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton and Nóra Talmaier

Period, science fiction-laden and fantasy, or some combination of the three, often go over like gangbusters here, and that'll be no exception this year. Films with spaceship designs have been doing well here lately (Gravity, Interstellar, The Martian, Arrival, Passengers, First Man), leading me to believe that Ad Astra will continue the trend. You've gotta have a major period piece, particularly documenting British history; The King will be that contender this year (it doesn't hurt that two of it's potential nominees, Crombie and Felton, lost in a close on last year). You'll also, likely, have a period/fantasy hybrid; enter Dumbo. Disney movies have been doing quite well over the past few years (Alice in Wonderland, Into the Woods, Beauty and the Beast, Mary Poppins Returns), and Tim Burton films have an exceptional record here with four films winning (Batman, Sleepy Hollow, Sweeney Todd and the aforementioned Alice in Wonderland). Trailers and production stills promise another beautifully made film; if it's any good, it's sure to factor in here.

While I am expecting Cats to be something of a clusterfuck, I'd say it'll do well in the craft categories, just as Tom Hooper's last three films (The King's Speech, Les Miserables, The Danish Girl) have. The last spot has some major contenders, but I'm leaning towards The Irishman; there's usually one restrained, unfussy nominee here, and I expect there to be strong, respectable work coming from this one. Plus, Scorsese films have a solid record here, with two wins from six nominations.

The Next Five

*The Aeronauts- David Hindle & Christian Hubbard and Sophie Hervieu
*Little Women- Jess Gonchor and Claire Kaufman
*Lucy in the Sky- Stefania Cella and Jon J. Bush
*Once Upon a Time in Hollywood- Barbara Ling and Nancy Haigh
*Rocketman- Marcus Rowland and Judy Farr

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
**Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton and Nóra Talmaier- The King**

And the Nominees Could Possibly Be...

*Ad Astra- John Axelrad & Lee Haugen
*Ford v. Ferrari- Michael McCusker
*The Irishman- Thelma Schoonmaker
*The King- Peter Sciberras
*Lucy in the Sky- Regis Kimble

The Next Five

*Harriet- TBA
*Knives Out- Bob Ducsay
*The Last Thing He Wanted- Mako Kamitsuna
*Once Upon a Time in Hollywood- TBA (Probably Fred Raskin)
*Us- Nicholas Monsour

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
**Thelma Schoonmaker- The Irishman**

And the Nominees Could Possibly Be...

*Ad Astra
*Ford v. Ferrari
*Lucy in the Sky
*Six Underground
*Star Wars: Episode IX

The Next Five

*Avengers: Endgame
*Gemini Man
*The King
*Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
*Terminator: Dark Fate

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
**Ad Astra**

And the Nominees Could Possibly Be...

*Ad Astra
*Ford v. Ferrari
*Lucy in the Sky
*Rocketman
*Star Wars: Episode IX

The Next Five

*Avengers: Endgame
*Cats
*Gemini Man
*The King
*Six Underground

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
**Lucy in the Sky**

And the Nominees Could Possibly Be...

*Cats
*Fonzo
*Rocketman

This category is, always, a mess, though there is, usually, a pretty solid template to guess by; big studio films with heavy prosthetics, historical films (particularly British) that turn famous people into historical figures, and/or a foreign film. Cats seems like the obvious "big" one. Tom Hooper's films have been a presence here before (Les Mis won), and it'll have a lot of big stars made up in cats makeup; sounds like a potential winner to me. Rocketman could, possibly, pick up a category that Bohemian Rhapsody couldn't; this one appears to have more hairstyling, instead of wild wigs and a mustache. The last spot came down to Fonzo and The King, and I went with the former. While The King hits the historical notes that, usually, go over big here, Fonzo has the Best Actor connection that could help; merging of performance and actor has always done well here (that may help Joker, too).

If There are Five

*Joker
*The King

The Next Five

*Hellboy
*The Irishman
*Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
*Sextuplets
*Star Wars: Episode IX

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
**Cats**

And the Nominees Could Possibly Be...

*Ad Astra
*Avengers: Endgame
*The Irishman
*The Lion King
*Star Wars: Episode IX

Ad Astra, Avengers, The Lion King and Star Wars all feel like no-brainers here. That fifth spots has a lot of big contenders, but I'm going with The Irishman. It remains to be seen whether or not Scorsese and his VFX team have successfully de-aged the film's cast, but I'm leaning on the optimistic side (and looking at all the money Netflix has sunk into the film) and guessing that they have.

The Next Five

*Alita: Battle Angel
*Call of the Wild
*Gemini Man
*Godzilla: King of the Monsters
*Lucy in the Sky

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
**The Irishman**