Final 2016 Oscar Predictions

1.

Still the front runner, but no as heavily as it once was. Guaranteed a nomination.

2.

The Big Short has come on incredibly strong over the past month, scoring top prize nods at the BAFTAs, SAG, Golden Globe, PGA, and Critic's Choice awards. If there's a movie that could usurp Spotlight, it's sure looking like this is it.

3.

Been a strong presence all season; seems pretty locked in.

4.

Another movie that's surged over the past month, with top prize nods everywhere except the BAFTAs. Should make the cut.

5.

Not the critical hit that many had expected, The Revenant will still likely make the cut.

6.

Carol has scored a boatload of nominations everywhere except the PGAs, but seems like a solid bet. Not a lock, but probable.

7.

Bridge of Spies has showed up everywhere that it needed to and while it isn't the flashiest property here, it one of the more widely agreeable.

8.

A pretty 50/50 season. Made the PGAs, but missed out at the BAFTAs and Golden Globes. This could go either way, and this category could end up with ten nominees, but I think that Brooklyn takes the final spot. It's a period romance that will likely worm it's way into many voters hearts. But...

Other Possibilities

9.

Straight Outta Compton has a surprisingly excellent season, securing nods at several guild awards, including the all important PGAs and SAGs. Could make the cut, but it just doesn't seem like the Oscars cup of tea. I could be (and likely am) wrong.

10.

Room hasn't really had that great of an awards season; it started out strong, getting a couple of Golden Globe and SAG nods, but it's momentum has only gone down since, and it missed out at the PGAs and BAFTAs. It could rally, but so many other films look to have more momentum.

11.

Sicario has been chugging along all season, picking up big nods without much notice. It may shock a lot of people, or not (even if it does make it in, I'd say people still won't notice; it's kind of like the child that keeps doing well in school, but the parents don't seem to notice).

12.

Could rally, but hasn't made much of an impact.

13.

Has had surprising legs this season, picking up a PGA nod for best film. It's still likely too small and too genre-y to make the cut, but in a year like this there are a lot of possibilities.

14.

SAG nod, and its a movie about Hollywood (voters love patting themselves on the back). It hasn't showed up anywhere since though, and the film itself got a rather muted response from critics and audiences.

15.

Picked up a surprising SAG nod for best ensemble, but hasn't really factored in much since.

Result: 7/8 Carol, Room in.

1 .

Ridley Scott- The Martian
He's been nominated everywhere else, and he's due. Potential winner.

2.

George Miller- Mad Max: Fury Road
Fury Road has been cruising over the last month, and it's Miller's vision that brought to the screen. He'll be in.

3.

Tom McCarthy- Spotlight
Even though he missed out at the BAFTAs, he's got the BP front runner and I highly doubt that he'll get Afflecked.

4.

Adam McKay- The Big Short
His movie has been inching higher and higher to the top over the last month, and he was recently nominated for a BAFTA. Yes ladies and Gentlemen, it would appear the man behind Anchorman and Step Brother has a strong shot at a best director nomination.

5.

Alejandro González Iñárritu- The Revenant
The Revenant has shown up pretty much everywhere, but the movie isn't getting the praise that many were expecting. He's still likely here, but not as much as he was a month ago, and it doesn't look like he'll be repeating.

Other Possibilities

6.

Todd Haynes- Carol

7.

Steven Spielberg- Bridge of Spies

Result: 4/5 (Ridley Scott out, Lenny Abrahamson (Room) in)

1.

Leonardo DiCaprio- The Revenant
Still looks like the front runner, and by a pretty wide margin.

2.

Bryan Cranston- Trumbo
A highly respected actor playing a real life Hollywood legend; I should've predicted this earlier. His made the cut at every award show thus far, and looks likely to continue it here.

3.

Michael Fassbender- Steve Jobs
Also made the cut at every award ceremony, and it would pretty surprising for him not to here.

4.

Eddie Redmayne- The Danish Girl
He's a Brit playing a LGBT character; if the movie'd been more warmly received, he'd be the favorite to win. As it is, he still looks likely.

5.

Matt Damon- The Martian
Missed out on a SAG nod, but has been nominated everywhere else since. There are a couple of strong potential spoilers below, but he looks more probable.

Other Possibilities

6.

Johnny Depp- Black Mass
SAG and Critic's Choice nominations, but the movie really didn't make much of a splash. He could break in because of his "comeback" narrative, but I'm not very certain.

7.

Will Smith- Concussion
Got a Globe nod, but the movie pretty much came and went.

8.

Steve Carell- The Big Short
The movie has been skyrocketing over the last month, and he could benefit from it.

Result: 5/5

1.

Brie Larson- Room
Even with Room sliding in th BP race, Larson still appears to be a lock here, and possibly even the favorite.

2.

Cate Blanchett- Carol
Unless Mara breaks into the category, expect to see Blanchett here.

3.

Saoirse Ronan- Brooklyn
Even with Brooklyn having an odd season, Ronan is likely a lock.

4.

Alicia Vikander- The Danish Girl
With all the talk of category fraud this year, I think at least one of the performers will end up in a category that they didn't campaign in, and I think it's gonna be Vikander. Many were shocked when she went in supporting, as many believed that she was the central figure of the film. I could be and probably am wrong, but I just have a feeling that she's going to have a strong showing this year.

5.

Charlotte Rampling- 45 Years
This could go several ways, but I'm going with Rampling. Globe and Critics' Choice Awards nominations, in a film that was well received.

Other Possibilities

6.

Jennifer Lawrence- Joy
Joy just hasn't had the impact that many were expecting, and Lawrence has missed out on both the SAGs and the BAFTAs. While she's certainly got her fans, a good enough performance just might not be enough.

7.

Charlize Theron- Mad Max: Fury Road
Mad Max has been gaining momentum over the last month, and she made the cut at the Critic's Choice awards, so she could surprise.

8.

Maggie Smith- The Lady in the Van
BAFTA nod, but it feels more like the Brits giving one of their best a shout-out.

Result: 4/5 (Vikander's work for The Danish Girl was recognized for Supporting, not lead.

1.

Rooney Mara- Carol
It would appear that the claims of category fraud haven't really bothered Mara, as she's been nominated in this category at the BFCA and SAG awards, and at the BAFTAs. The only place that she went lead was the Globes, and they always go their own way with awards. Still, if she makes it in, I think she's the favorite.

2.

Kate Winslet- Steve Jobs
Throughout the awards season, Winslet has really been the category's only constant. I doubt she'll win, but it seems that she's going to be nominated.

3.

Jennifer Jason Leigh- The Hateful Eight

4.

Alicia Vikander- Ex Machina
This is probably my most out-there pick, but I think that Vikander gets two nominations this year. Both the BAFTAs and the HFPA awards have put her in lead for The Danish Girl, and nominated her this in supporting. With both categories being a bit wobbly on the back end, I think that she surprises here. I'm probably wrong, so follow me at your own risk.

5.

Rachel McAdams- Spotlight
Spotlight will have a healthy showing come nomination morning, and I think this will be a part of it. McAdams has been having a great year with this, something of a minor comeback, and I think it'll help her make the cut. But...

Other Possibilities

6.

Helen Mirren- Trumbo
She picked up nods at the SAG, BFCA, and Golden Globe awards, but the film isn't the most well liked out of this group, and her miss at the BAFTAs (always kind to Brit actors) is worrying. She's still in the hunt, but I'm just not feeling it.

7.

Jane Fonda- Youth
Golden Globe nomination, but buzz for her has really died down in the last month or so.

Result: 5/5 for the women, 4/5 for the movies (Vikander was in for The Danish Girl.

1.

Mark Rylance- Bridge of Spies
This is one of the most frenzied categories I've ever seen. There at least ten guys here that have a legitimate chance at a nomination, and even a win. Now, taking all of the previous nods this year and looking at them, it would appear that the only man seemingly locked in is Rylance, and I wouldn't even go that for (there's still a chance he misses out). He's the only one who's made the cut at the SAG, Golden Globe, BFCA and BAFTA awards.

2.

Idris Elba- Beasts of No Nation
BAFTA, Golden Globe, and SAG noms, as well as a likely hard push from Netflix, give me confidence the we'll see Elba's name on the ballot. Plus, they're not going to let an #OscarsSoWhite incident happen twice in a row.

3.

Christian Bale- The Big Short
Surprisingly, he's been nominated in some capacity at almost all of the major award show, including supporting actor at the SAGs and BAFTAs. With the film looking like a genuine threat, it appears he's the strongest shot at an acting nomination.

4.

Sylvester Stallone- Creed
While he missed out at the SAGs and BAFTAs, I think the Academy will put him in. Older actors always do strong here, and this was a genuine comeback performance. He's the sentimental choice.

5.

Mark Ruffalo- Spotlight
It would just be too surprising to see no male Spotlight star nominated here, especially considering the film's status as the front runner. Considering Ruffalo has been picking up steam as of late, BFCA and BAFTA nomination, I think it'll be him. Still, this is a pretty shocking category, and I'd be incredibly surprised if all of my picks were correct.

Other Possibilities

6.

Michael Shannon- 99 Homes
SAG, Golden Globe, and Critics' Choice nods propelled him into the conversation, but I think 99 Homes is just to small of a film to keep him ahead of such bigger name titles.

7.

Paul Dano- Love & Mercy
Golden Globe and Critic's Choice nods; he is playing a real person with mental health issues, and he's an actor who's been on the cusp in the past, but like Shannon above, I don't think Love & Mercy has the legs.

8.

Michael Keaton- Spotlight
Once considered the favorite, now seemingly unlikely to make the cut. Could surprise, but it seems pretty unlikely. Should've campaigned in the lead category.

9.

Jacob Tremblay- Room
SAG nod, but Room seems to be on the way out.

10.

Tom Hardy- The Revenant

Result: 4/5, Hardy rode The Revenant's, then, love to overtake Elba, who seemed like a lock (he won the SAG for cryin'-out-loud!).

1.

Tom McCarthy and Josh Singer- Spotlight
I'm calling it; they're winning.

2.

Josh Cooley, Pete Docter & Meg LeFauve- Inside Out
Seems pretty solid. Pixar has a solid track record here, and the movie got excellent reviews.

3.

Matt Charman and Joel & Ethan Coen- Bridge of Spies

4.

Quentin Tarantino- The Hateful Eight
The movie hasn't gotten the play that most expected, and there are more likely BP contenders down the line, but Tarantino has always fared pretty well here, and I'll take his history vs. the unknown.

5.

Alex Garland- Ex Machina
There are a lot of potential nominees here, but none of them have the originality of Garland's script. While that's never really mattered much, "original" (based on actual events, but not previously written text) scripts make the cut every year, and are going to win the category this year. But, in such a crowded field, I think a genuinely unique piece of work will stand out. It also helps that the film has had surprising legs this season, picking a PGA nod for best film. Plus, any script that can make time for an impromptu dance sequence while talking about human existence is deserving of recognition.

Other Possibilities

6. Jonathan Herman and Andrea Berloff and Alan Wenkus- Straight Outta Compton
7. Taylor Sheridan- Sicario
8. Amy Schumer- Trainwreck
9. Laszlo Nemes and Clara Royer- Son of Saul

Result: 4/5; Tarantino didn't have the love, and Compton's team beat him out.

1.

Adam McKay and Charles Randolph- The Big Short
As previously stated, the last month or so has brought this one into the forefront. As such, it's stake in this category has only grown. With a smart, funny and blisteringly timely screenplay, McKay and Randolph have jumped to the top of this list, and are starting to look like strong bets to win.

2.

Aaron Sorkin- Steve Jobs
WGA, HFPA and BFCA nods have boosted what appeared to be a wobbly proposition following the film's financial troubles. Still not necessarily a lock (I'd say #1 is the only film here with that distinction), Sorkin's work appears safe.

3.

Emma Donoghue- Room
Even with the film not looking the strongest for Best Picture, it still looks relatively strong here, though I wouldn't be surprised to see it miss. I'm going with my gut here though, and expect to see Donoghue make the cut.

4.

Drew Goddard - The Martian
The Martian has hung in all season long, as has Goddard's script. WGA and BFCA nods, while not conclusive, make it appear that the script has love from both critics and fellow writers alike, and in such a frenzied award season, that's enough for me to go with.

5.

Phyllis Nagy- Carol
I've really got no clue here. Carol has been a mixed property all season, as has this script. It did get a WGA nod, but in an incredibly depleted field (Brooklyn and Anomalisa were ruled ineligible). Yet again, another gut call, but I think it makes it in.

Other Possibilities

6. Nick Hornby- Brooklyn
7. Charlie Kaufman- Anomalisa
8. John McNamara- Trumbo
9. Mark L. Smith and Alejandro González Iñárritu- The Revenant
10. Cary Joji Fukunaga- Beasts of No Nation

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

Other Possibilities

6.

7.

8.

1.

Easily the favorite.

2.

3.

4.

5.

Other Possibilities

6.

7.

8.

9.

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

Other Possibilities

6.

7.

8.

9.

1.

Emmanuel Lubezki- The Revenant
Its looking like a three-peat.

2.

John Seale- Mad Max: Fury Road
Was already a favorite here before Fury Road's awards run, and now looks to be a solid contender to win.

3.

Roger Deakins- Sicario
Deakins has been nominated four out of this decade's five years, including three straight. Yet another nomination is looking good for his strong work here. Is it good enough to win though? Questionable.

4.

Edward Lachman- Carol

5.

Robert Richardson- The Hateful Eight
The Hateful Eight didn't get the praise that many were expecting, and much of Richardson's discussed use of 70mm was relegated to one room (but that room did look good). Still, I'll take it at five; Richardson is a favorite here, and his last two collaborations with QT netted him noms. Still, it's close.

Other Possibilities

6.

Janusz Kaminski- Bridge of Spies
Recently picked up an ASC (Cinematographer's Guild) nod, and is always an Academy favorite (2 wins from 6 nods). It'll all depend on Bridge of Spies staying power, and it's been a little iffy at the moment.

7.

Dariusz Wolski- The Martian

8.

Danny Cohen- The Danish Girl

9.

Dan Mindel- Star Wars: The Force Awakens

1.

Ennio Morricone- The Hateful EightMorricone has yet to win an Oscar (he does have an honorary one, but...) and his work here is getting huge praise. In a seemingly wide open field, this looks like the early favorite.

2.

John Williams- Star Wars: Episode VII- The Force AwakensIt's John Williams. The fact that it's a Star Wars film is only icing on the cake.

3.

Carter Burwell- CarolBurwell's been around for a while without a nod. In a category without a genuine favorite, he seems like a lock to at least get a nomination.

4.

Thomas Newman- Bridge of SpiesNewman's been nominated 12 times without winning, and could very well go for a 13th here. While it's not as showy as some of his earlier work, and at times hues too heavily towards a John Williams sound-alike, its solid, respectable work from respected composer. Overall love for the movie will likely help too.

5.

Michael Giacchino- Inside OutHe was nominated twice before for Pixar films, and won for Up in 2010. My wobbliest pick here, but it looks like a strong pick.

Other Possibilities

6. Howard Shore- Spotlight
7. Alexandre Desplat- The Danish Girl
8. Daniel Pemberton- Steve Jobs
9. Harry Gregson-Williams- The Martian
10. Michael Brook- Brooklyn

1.

"See You Again"- Furious 7Appears to be a lock.

2.

"Til it Happens to You"- The Hunting GroundBig, strong contender.

3.

"Simple Song #3"- YouthHFPA and BFCA nominations keep this firmly in the hunt.

4.

"Love Me Like You Do"- Fifty Shades of GreyYep, it appears that Fifty Shades of Grey will be an Oscar nominee. After scoring nods with the HFPA and BFCA, it looks like a solid bet in a weak field.

5.

"Writing's On the Wall"- SpectreEven with mixed reviews, the song has been popping up all over this category all season. Not a lock, but looking solid at the moment.

Other Possibilities

6."Earned It"- Fifty Shades of Grey
7."So Long"- Concussion

1. Margaret Sixel- Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Stephen Mirrione- The Revenant
3. Pietro Scalia- The Martian
4. Hank Corwin- The Big Short
5. Tom McArdle- Spotlight

#1-3 appear to be the locks here, with Fury Road looking strong for another technical award. The Big Short is popping at exactly the right time, and features a number of difficult, precise cuts from Corwin. At #5, I'll go with McArdle; while he missed out on an ACE Eddie award, and Birdman proved that you don't need an editing nod to still be a BP favorite, the movie is still incredibly respected, and this category is already flush with blockbuster fare. But...

Other Possibilities6. Maryann Brandon and Mary Jo Markey- Star Wars: The Force Awakens
7. Joe Walker- Sicario
8. Michael Kahn- Bridge of Spies
9. Elliot Graham- Steve Jobs
10. Claudia Castello & Michael P. Shawver- Creed

1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. The Martian
3. The Revenant
4. Star Wars: Episode VII-The Force Awakens
5. Inside Out

#1-4 appear to be fairly locked in, with #5 wide open. There are a lot of choices here, but I'm leaning towards Inside Out. Pixar has always been a strong presence here, with seven previous nods, and a win for The Incredibles.

Other Possibilities6. Sicario
7. The Hateful Eight
8. Creed
9. Spectre
10. Jurassic World

1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Star Wars: Episode VII-The Force Awakens
3. The Martian
4. The Revenant
5. Straight Outta Compton

Just like Sound Editing, #1-4 seem like pretty solid locks at the moment, with Fury Road the runaway favorite. #5 could go to a number of different films, but I'm taking Straight Outta Compton. The film has showed surprising legs this season, and music centered movies have always been strong here (Whiplash, Ray, Dreamgirls, Walk the Line, etc.).
Other Possibilities6. Jurassic World
7. Inside Out
8. The Hateful Eight
9. Sicario
10. Creed

1.

Carol

2.

Bridge of Spies

3.

The Danish Girl

4.

Star Wars: Episode VII- The Force Awakens

5.

Crimson Peak

Other Possibilities

6.

Mad Max: Fury Road

7.

Brooklyn

8.

Cinderella

9.

The Revenant

10.

The Martian

1.

Sandy Powell- Carol

2.

Sandy Powell- Cinderella

3.

Paco Delgado- The Danish Girl

4.

Odile Dicks-Mireaux- Brooklyn

5.

Kate Hawley- Crimson Peak

Other Possibilities

6.

Jenny Beavan- Mad Max: Fury Road
Could definitely jump in. It's been having such a wonderful season that appears it has a lot of support. While I have it on the outside looking in, it's certainly close.

7.

Jacqueline West- The Revenant

8.

Courtney Hoffman- The Hateful Eight

9.

Michael Kaplan- Star Wars: The Force Awakens

10.

Kasia Walicka-Maimone- Bridge of Spies

1.

Mad Max: Fury Road
Following the cut of several high-profile makeup work in this category (Star Wars, The Danish Girl, The Hateful Eight, etc.) it now appears to be Fury Road's to lose. There are a couple that could contend though...

2.

Black Mass

3.

The Revenant
This is always a wonky category, but a presumed BP nominee is always a safer bet than several indies.

Other Possibilities

4.

The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared
Such an out-there pick that it could be a fun dark horse for a lot of voters.

5.

Mr. Holmes

6.

Concussion

7.

Legend

1.

Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Looks like a strong bet to take the category.

2.

The Martian

3.

Mad Max: Fury Road
With the film's awards prospects rising significantly over the past month, this could be a potential winner.

4.

Jurassic World

5.

Avengers: Age of Ultron
The same, but I could definitely see this missing the cut, especially to No. 6.

Other Possibilities

6.

The Walk

7.

The Revenant

9.

Ex Machina

9.

Ant-Man

10.

Tomorrowland