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Predicting the Winners of the 2019 Oscars

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Best Picture

People who added this item 277 Average listal rating (196 ratings) 7.6 IMDB Rating 7.7
Roma (2018)
And the Nominees are...

*BlacKkKlansman
*Black Panther
*Bohemian Rhapsody
*The Favourite
*Green Book
*Roma
*A Star Is Born
*Vice

And the Oscar goes to...


After an insanely unhelpful January, the last month or so has firmed up the field. While unexpected early in the season, Roma has had a strong month post-nominations, winning top prizes at the BAFTA, DGA and Critics' Choice Awards. With these major victories, it has a narrow lead over the rest of the field. Following closely on it's heels is Green Book, which shook up the race early with a Golden Globe win and, more importantly, the PGA award, which is often the precursor that predicts BP winners. Coming in third with a small, but still viable, shot at glory is Black Panther, which beat some major contenders to win the SAG ensemble prize.

Panther is, obviously, a possibility, but the fact that it missed directing, acting, writing and editing nominations is a bumpy hill to climb. Missing one of those is a tough hurdle to overcome; missing all of them is a killer. It, also, probably won't fare that well in a preferential ballot, where it'll likely show up in the middle of the pack, if not the bottom.

That preferential will also pop up in the main title bout between Green Book and Roma. Roma is easy to near the top of most lists; if it doesn't get all of the #1 votes, it's hard to see it sliding that much further down the pack. Green Book, however, has had a lot of vocal dissent, with some rejecting less for the filmmaking itself and more for the questionable racial politics found in it. I can see a lot of #1 votes, but also a lot of deliberately tanking #8 votes too. With that in mind, I'm going with Roma, because I see it as more of the consensus pick.

Outside of those films, do any of the other five have a shot? Had The Favourite won the BAFTA, I'd have been tempted to predict it. The fact that that group, too, went with Roma leads me to believe that it'll be a hard film to beat. BlacKkKlansman has had too much of an up and down season to take it, and seems too incendiary to achieve the broad support it would need. A Star Is Born has been beaten down all season, and I don't see that trend changing. Bohemian Rhapsody had a stunningly good run, including a win at the Golden Globes; that said, I just can't see a film with as mixed a response as this one winning in a preferential ballot. If it does, it will immediately become one of the worst films to ever take this prize. Vice isn't winning. I could say more, but it isn't.

Power Rankings
1. Roma
2. Green Book
3. The Favourite
4. BlacKkKlansman
5. Black Panther
6. A Star Is Born
7. Bohemian Rhapsody
8. Vice
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Best Director

People who added this item 331 Average listal rating (238 ratings) 7.3 IMDB Rating 7.5
And the Nominees are...


*Alfonso Cuarón- Roma
*Yorgos Lanthimos- The Favourite
*Spike Lee- BlacKkKlansman
*Adam McKay- Vice
*Pawel Pawlikowski- Cold War

And the Oscar goes to...


No frontrunner is guaranteed a win, especially not this year, but, of the precursor winners, Cuarón not winning would be huge shocker. He's won every other award so far this season, including the all-important DGA prize. Another thing going for his is that there really isn't a clear potential spoiler; it's not going to be McKay, who really shouldn't be here, or Pawlikowski, who's film missed a BP nom (not since the 2nd Oscar ceremony has a director won without a BP nominated film behind him). That leaves Lee, who could surprise to become the first African-American winner here, or Lanthimos. They're big longshots though, and this is Cuarón's to lose.

Power Rankings
1. Cuarón
2. Lee
3. Lanthimos
4. McKay
5. Pawlikowski
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Best Actress

People who added this item 331 Average listal rating (233 ratings) 7.2 IMDB Rating 7.7
And the Nominees are...


*Yalitza Aparicio- Roma
*Glenn Close- The Wife
*Olivia Colman- The Favourite
*Lady Gaga- A Star Is Born
*Melissa McCarthy- Can You Ever Forgive Me?

And the Oscar goes to...


After that surprise Golden Globe win, Close has won every other major prize, including a very important SAG win. Add to that the fact that this is her seventh nomination, with no previous victories; i.e. it's time. That's not to say that she's the runaway favorite here, as The Favourite star looks like a strong possible spoiler. She won on the comedy side of the Golden Globes and, more importantly, took the BAFTA award. Granted she was always going to take BAFTA, but enough support from the foreign voting body could spell enough BAFTA-signaled upset. Still, Close feels like the gut pick here, and her consistent snubbing on the American side feels like it should be enough to push her to the finish line.

Power Rankings
1. Close
2. Colman
3. Gaga
4. Aparicio
5. McCarthy
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Best Actor

People who added this item 142 Average listal rating (103 ratings) 6.2 IMDB Rating 7.2
Vice (2018) (2018)
And the Nominees are...


*Christian Bale- Vice
*Bradley Cooper- A Star Is Born
*Willem Dafoe- At Eternity's Gate
*Rami Malek- Bohemian Rhapsody
*Viggo Mortensen- Green Book

And the Oscar goes to...


After taking SAG and BAFTA awards, Malek has become the odds-on frontrunner. Historically, it's a tough combination to compete against, and it looks as though he'll be awarded for carrying Rhapsody on his back all season. That said, this isn't a lock, not like other times with a BAFTA/SAG combination. This season has been topsy-turvy, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a major upset; hell, I'm even expecting one. With Picture and Supporting Actress being clusterfucks regardless, and Director and Actress/Supporting Actor looking, more or less, solid, this is really the only spot for a genuine surprise. Bale performed yet another of his customary body transformations for Vice and has propelled that film to the success it achieved this year, and there's been growing vocal support for Cooper, who many believe deserves some sort of recognition for his work on A Star Is Born; i.e. he's not getting Screenplay or, likely, Picture, so this is really the only feasible spot he could win. I still, fully, expect Malek to win (when in doubt, go with history), but nothing's over till it's over.

Power Rankings
1. Malek
2. Bale
3. Cooper
4. Mortensen
5. Dafoe
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Best Supporting Actor

People who added this item 307 Average listal rating (218 ratings) 7.1 IMDB Rating 8.2
And the Nominees are...


*Mahershala Ali- Green Book
*Adam Driver- BlacKkKlansman
*Sam Elliot- A Star Is Born
*Richard E. Grant- Can You Ever Forgive Me?
*Sam Rockwell- Vice

And the Oscar goes to...


The only true acting lock of the night, Ali should cruise to his second win here in three ceremonies.

Power Rankings
1. Ali
2. Grant
3. Elliot
4. Driver
5. Rockwell
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Best Supporting Actress

People who added this item 324 Average listal rating (227 ratings) 7.5 IMDB Rating 7.6
The Favourite (2018)
And the Nominees are...


*Amy Adams- Vice
*Marina de Tariva- Roma
*Regina King- If Beale Street Could Talk
*Emma Stone- The Favourite
*Rachel Weisz- The Favourite

And the Oscar goes to...


Easily the toughest acting category to call, this awards has had the rockiest ride to Oscar Sunday. King won both the Critics' Choice and Golden Globe, but was snubbed by the Screen Actors Guild and British Academy. Eyes then turned to Amy Adams to take the SAG award, likely becoming the favorite; she lost however, to Emily Blunt for A Quiet Place, who didn't even score an Oscar nomination. Then came the BAFTAs, who were the only award to follow the expected course, awarding Rachel Weisz for her work in The Favourite. Most see King as the favorite, and she likely is; she's an exceptionally well-respected figure, with three Emmys and countless credits to her name, who gave some impassioned acceptance speeches for the two awards she won. That said, in the 24 years that the Screen Actors Guild have given out awards, only once has an eventual Oscar winner not been nominated; 2000, when Marcia Gay Harden won with only the Oscar nomination (Jennifer Connelly was not nominated in supporting at the SAGs, but at in lead. She did, however, go on to win the BAFTA for supporting).

Weisz, while only winning one major precursor, has been nominated everywhere else and her film is, clearly, the more well-liked. This category brings me back to the supporting actor race of 2015; Sylvester Stallone won the Golden Globe and Critics' Choice Awards, but was snubbed by the BAFTAs and SAGs. The SAG winner, Idris Elba, went un-nominated at the Oscars, leaving the BAFTAs as the only precursor with Oscar voter overlap. That year, the BAFTAs went with Mark Rylance for Bridge of Spies, who had been nominated by all the major precursors, but who had only won the BAFTA. Most, including myself, still saw Stallone as the favorite, and were surprised when Rylance won. The only difference from this year's supporting actress category is that Weisz already has an Oscar, meaning that many voters may want to spread the wealth. That said, history is too hard for me to ignore in this category, and I see Weisz surprising to win her second Oscar. I would, absolutely, not be surprised to see King take the award though (or, even, one of the other women here, particularly Adams).

Power Rankings
1. Weisz
2. King
3. Adams
4. de Tariva
5. Stone
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Best Original Screenplay

People who added this item 130 Average listal rating (89 ratings) 7.5 IMDB Rating 7.1
And the Nominees are...



*The Favourite- Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara
*First Reformed- Paul Schrader
*Green Book- Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie & Peter Farrelly
*Roma- Alfonso Cuarón
*Vice- Adam McKay

And the Oscar goes to...


The precursors have been all over the place with this category. Golden Globes went with Green Book, Critics went with First Reformed, and the BAFTAs went with The Favourite. The WGA award, the best predictor of this award around, went with the un-nominated Eighth Grade, more or less rendering it null. With WGA, BAFTA is, likely, the best predictor; as such, I'll take the wickedly entertaining and wrenching script for The Favourite. This is a category that values originality, and The Favourite is, most assuredly, a singular work (so is First Reformed, but the award hasn't gone a non-BP nominee since the Best Picture expanded). Green Book is a movie that has, clearly, connected with voters, and could be seen has a shot to give the movie it's "due" (a Globe win is nothing to overlook either). Roma could, also, score the award, as BP winners frequently take this category. That said, Cuarón's filmmaking work behind the camera has, mostly, relegated his screenplay to the backseat. It's a close category that could go to, really, any nominee.

Power Rankings
1. The Favourite
2. Green Book
3. Roma
4. First Reformed
5. Vice
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Best Adapted Screenplay

And the Nominees are...


*The Ballad of Buster Scruggs- Joel & Ethan Coen
*BlacKkKlansman- Charlie Wachtel & David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee
*Can You Ever Forgive Me?- Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty
*If Beale Street Could Talk- Barry Jenkins
*A Star Is Born- Eric Roth and Bradley Cooper & Will Fetters

And the Oscar goes to...


Historically, BlacKkKlansman should be the runaway favorite; only three times in 90 years has a movie that wasn't nominated for Best Picture won here (The Bad and the Beautiful, Sling Blade and Gods and Monsters). Seeing as it's one of only two BP nominees here, and A Star Is Born isn't winning this, and it won the BAFTA, it should be over. That said, If Beale Street Could Talk seems to have a very good shot. While it was, mostly, snubbed everywhere else, Jenkins' adaptation has been universally praised. Can You Ever Forgive Me?, too, has hit a momentum wave as well; it won the WGA award, a highly sought after precursor that has been highly predictive of Oscar glory (it's only missed twice this decade, and that was only because two winners weren't eligible). In the end, I still see Klansman winning; as I mentioned, it is the only of these three major contenders nominated for Best Picture, and it scored a very valuable BAFTA award, as well as the fact that it will be seen by many as a chance to finally give Spike Lee a win. That said, this is a category that could certainly see a major upset.

Power Rankings
1. BlacKkKlansman
2. Can You Ever Forgive Me?
3. If Beale Street Could Talk
4. A Star Is Born
5. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
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Best Animated Feature

And the Nominees are...


*Incredibles 2
*Isle of Dogs
*Mirai
*Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck-It Ralph 2
*Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

And the Oscar goes to...


This is an exceptional lineup of films, with a few films that were, genuinely, better than some of the BP nominees. That said, Spider-Man has been a runaway success so far, winning the Critics' Choice Award, Golden Globe and, most importantly, the Producer's Guild Award, which has lined-up with the Oscars all but three times (and two of those time the PGA winner was snubbed for a nomination). I wouldn't rule out a shocker here though; several votes might go with muscle memory and vote for the Pixar film (as they did the one time the PGA and Oscars split with the same nominees, going instead with Brave of PGA winner Wreck-It Ralph), Incredibles 2, or decide to finally give Wes Anderson an Oscar, for Isle of Dogs. Still, Spider-Man is the favorite here.

Power Rankings
1. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
2. Incredibles 2
3. Isle of Dogs
4. Ralph Breaks the Internet
5. Mirai
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Best Foreign Language Film

People who added this item 138 Average listal rating (93 ratings) 7.5 IMDB Rating 7.6
Cold War (2018)
And the Nominees are...


*Capernaum
*Cold War
*Never Look Away
*Roma
*Shoplifters


With it having won this category at every other major precursor, and looking like a possible BP winner, Roma is certainly the favorite. That said, there's a slight possibility that voters may want to throw a bone to Cold War, having nominated it in some major categories where Roma is likely to win (also, how many Oscars does Cuarón need?). Roma is, still, the probably winner.

Power Rankings
1. Roma
2. Cold War
3. Shoplifters
4. Never Look Away
5. Capernaum
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Best Documentary Feature

And the Nominees are...


*Free Solo
*Hale County This Morning, This Evening
*Minding the Gap
*Of Fathers and Sons
*RBG

And the Oscar goes to...


With Won't You Be My Neighbor out of the race, this looks to come down to Free Solo and RBG. Solo is a critically acclaimed box office hit, while RBG has crossover appeal from notoriety alone. With that in mind, I'm going with RBG. Many voters tend to skip the nominated docs and vote, if they vote at all, for the most notable one, or the one that'll have the biggest show moment; going for RBG seems right up that alley.

Power Rankings
1. RBG
2. Free Solo
3. Hale County This Morning, This Evening
4. Minding the Gap
5. Of Fathers and Sons
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Best Original Score

People who added this item 78 Average listal rating (46 ratings) 7.7 IMDB Rating 7.2
And the Nominees are...


*Terence Blanchard- BlacKkKlansman
*Nicholas Brittell- If Beale Street Could Talk
*Alexandre Desplat- Isle of Dogs
*Ludwig Göransson- Black Panther
*Marc Shaiman- Mary Poppins Returns

And the Oscar goes to...


This is, yet, another category where the winner won’t have won any precursors. The Critics’ Choice and Golden Globe Awards winner, Justin Hurwitz for First Man, was snubbed, and BAFTA winner A Star Is Born was ineligible. How, exactly, does one go about predicting this one? First, I’d suggest rooting out the one’s that won’t win. Isle of Dogs isn’t winning, Desplat’s got two already and this wasn’t his finest work; Mary Poppins Returns probably isn’t winning, as it hasn’t taken any precursor, and it’s momentum died a long time ago. That leaves Beale Street, BlacKkKlansman, and Black Panther. Britell has been seen, throughout most of the season, as the likely frontrunner, and his beautiful work would be a worthy winner. Unfortunately, If Beale Street Could Talk has been undervalued all season long, and his will, likely, get less views than his closest competitors. On the flipside, Panther and Klansman are both BP nominees (only twice in the past 20 years has a movie not nominated for Best Picture won this category), and both recently won Grammys. With all of this in mind, I think the film’s visibility and the category’s lack of a favorite will give Black Panther the win. It’s exceedingly close, with any of the last three having a strong chance (particularly Britell and Göransson) to take the Oscar.

Power Rankings
1. Black Panther
2. If Beale Street Could Talk
3. BlacKkKlansman
4. Mary Poppins Returns
5. Isle of Dogs
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Best Original Song

People who added this item 22 Average listal rating (14 ratings) 7 IMDB Rating 7.5
RBG
And the nominees are...

* "All the Stars" from Black Panther- Music by Kendrick Lamar, Sounwave & Anthony Tiffith; Lyrics by Kendrick Lamar, SZA & Anthony Tiffith
* "I'll Fight" from RBG- Music & Lyrics by Diane Warren
* "The Place Where the Lost Things Go" from Mary Poppins Returns- Music by Marc Shaiman; Lyrics by Marc Shaiman & Scott Wittman
* "Shallow" from A Star Is Born- Music & Lyrics by Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando & Andrew Wyatt
* "When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings" from The Ballad of Buster Scruggs- Music & Lyrics by David Rawlings & Gillian Welch

And the Oscar goes to...


"Shallow" should be locked in here; it’s won all of the major precursors, including a Grammy, and has the most important usage in it’s film. Note how I said "should be" instead of "is" there; with how banged up A Star Is Born has gotten throughout this awards season, it wouldn’t completely surprise me if voters decided to kick it down one last time. I’m not sure what would be the spoiler, probably "All the Stars" or "I’ll Fight", but it could happen. That said, it would be an all-time upset; i.e. expect “Shallow” to take it until it doesn’t.

Power Rankings
1. "Shallow"
2. "All the Stars"
3. "I’ll Fight"
4. "The Place Where the Lost Things Go"
5. "When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings"
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Best Cinematography

People who added this item 23 Average listal rating (15 ratings) 6.4 IMDB Rating 7.7
And the Nominees are...


*Alfonso Cuarón- Roma
*Caleb Deschanel- Never Look Away
*Matthew Libatique- A Star Is Born
*Robbie Ryan- The Favourite
*Lukasz Zal- Cold War

And the Oscar goes to...


While Roma has been the favorite here all season, Cold War's win at the ASC awards propels it into a close race. Zal is a solid alternative if voters want a black and white film, as well as a reprieve from the Cuarón-dominated ceremony. Cuarón's still the likely winner though; his film has the momentum, he won the BAFTA (who have a, slightly, better record when it comes to matching up with the Oscars) and his criticism of the Academy's excising of this category from the live show will likely garner him even more respect.

Power Rankings
1. Roma
2. Cold War
3. The Favourite
4. A Star Is Born
5. Never Look Away
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Best Costume Design

People who added this item 732 Average listal rating (517 ratings) 6.8 IMDB Rating 7.3
And the nominees are...


*Alexandra Byrne- Mary Queen of Scots
*Ruth Carter- Black Panther
*Sandy Powell- The Favourite
*Sandy Powell- Mary Poppins Returns
*Mary Zophres- The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

And the Oscar goes to...


While both categories have strong contenders, I expect both design categories to come down to Black Panther and The Favourite. The latter is a traditional winner, with lavish period designs that enliven and enrich every scene. The former is something of an outside-the-box choice; a superhero movie set in a contemporary world. That said, Panther is certainly one of the most finely-crafted of it’s genre to date, with it’s afrofuturism adding a cultural specificity that is, often, missing from blockbuster filmmaking in this age. With all of this in mind, I expect to see the categories split; I think both are too well-made to edge the other out both times. While I could certainly see one winning both categories, I’d say that Sandy Powell’s typically outstanding work will score her a fourth Oscar. While Carter’s work for Panther is beautifully rich, this category is too period-centric and genre averse.

Power Rankings
1. The Favourite
2. Black Panther
3. Mary Poppins Returns
4. Mary Queen of Scots
5. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
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Best Production Design

And the Nominees are...


*Black Panther- Hannah Beachler and Jay Hart
*The Favourite- Fiona Crombie and Alice Felton
*First Man- Nathan Crowley and Kathy Lucas
*Mary Poppins Returns- John Myhre and Gordon Sim
*Roma- Eugenio Caballero and Bárbara Enrı́quez

And the Oscar goes to…


As I mentioned above, I’m predicting a split in the design categories between Black Panther and The Favourite. Where the costumes category has been a bit myopic in it’s love of period dressing, production design has shown that it’s more than willing to go for more sci-fi/fantasy work. I also think that this where the quantity issue comes in; while there some great period details to be found in The Favourite, the film mostly takes place in about five or six different locations. Beachler and Hart have a lot more to do, merging the contemporary outer world with the afrofuturism of Wakanda. Speaking of Wakanda, the world itself has become such a massively popular and culturally significant location, real or unreal, that it may seem fitting to many voters to award the artists how design the world. It’s close, but I think Panther will snag it.

Power Rankings
1. Black Panther
2. The Favourite
3. Mary Poppins Returns
4. Roma
5. First Man
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Best Film Editing

People who added this item 428 Average listal rating (325 ratings) 6.7 IMDB Rating 8
And the Nominees are...

*Barry Alexander Brown- BlacKkKlansman
*Hank Corwin- Vice
*Yorgos Mavropsaridis- The Favourite
*John Ottman- Bohemian Rhapsody
*Patrick J. Don Vito- Green Book

And the Oscar goes to...

Fuck if I know. But if I had to pull one out of my ass...


I mean no offence to the editors here, but this has to be the weakest Editing race in decades. Your two frontrunners, Bohemian Rhapsody and Vice, weren't all that great, and one could've been edited by anyone, Green Book. BlacKkKlansman and The Favourite feature some exceptional work, though neither seems to have the momentum here. Well that's not exactly true, as The Favourite did take the Editors' Guild Award for Best Comedy/Musical editing, beating eventual BAFTA winner Vice; Rhapsody took the Editors' Guild Award for Dramatic editing. Historically, no film that has ever lost on the comedy/musical side of the Editors' Guild has ever went on to win the Oscar, which should rule Vice out. That said, it did surprise at the BAFTAs, beating out the exceeding Britishness of The Favourite and Rhapsody. Add to that the fact that the most edited film usually wins here, and I've got enough to, apprehensively, go with Vice.

Power Rankings
1. Vice
2. Bohemian Rhapsody
3. The Favourite
4. BlacKkKlansman
5. Green Book
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Best Sound Editing

People who added this item 481 Average listal rating (344 ratings) 7.1 IMDB Rating 7.5
And the Nominees are...

*Black Panther- Benjamin A. Burtt and Steve Boeddeker
*Bohemian Rhapsody- John Warhurst and Nina Hartstone
*First Man- Ai-Ling Lee and Mildred Iatrou Morgan
*A Quiet Place- Ethan Van der Ryn and Erik Aadahl
*Roma- Sergio Díaz and Skip Lievsay

And the Oscar goes to...


In a just world, First Man and/or A Quiet Place would take this in a walk. Both feature some of the most superb work of the decade, evocatively breathing life into their film's world. Both feature the most essential use of sound editing in the category. They are, unfortunately, the only two nominated films that did not score Best Picture nomination. At a glance, there wouldn't seem to be much need for a nomination in the top category to do well in the tech categories. Looking at the winners of this category, however, and you see a very major trend. Since the BP category expanded nominees, only one winner here didn't, also, score a Picture nomination (2012's Skyfall, but even it had to settle for a tie with a BP nominee (Zero Dark Thirty). In fact, in years when at least one film is also nominated for Best Picture, only four non-Picture nominated films have prevailed. While this is a wonky year, I see history winning out here. That narrows it down to Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, and Roma. Roma, while also having a beautiful sound design, is the smallest of the three, always a hindrance here. Rhapsody, with it's extensive and propulsive Queen soundtrack, is likely to have a stronger shot in Mixing, as the Editors create the sounds, whereas the Mixers arrange and rearrange; i.e. the editors didn't create the most important sounds here. That leaves me with Black Panther; it doesn't have the best work, but it's big enough, and voters unaware or uncaring of the specifics of these sound categories may just check the box of the biggest movie. Any could win though; this is another category that is, truly, up in the air.

Power Rankings
1. Black Panther
2. A Quiet Place
3. Bohemian Rhapsody
4. First Man
5. Roma
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Best Sound Mixing

People who added this item 219 Average listal rating (151 ratings) 7.1 IMDB Rating 7.3
First Man (2018)
And the Nominees are...

*Black Panther- Steve Boeddeker, Brandon Proctor and Peter Devlin
*Bohemian Rhapsody- Paul Massey, Tim Cavagin and John Casali
*First Man- Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño, Ai-Ling Lee and Mary H. Ellis
*Roma- Skip Lievsay, Craig Henighan and José Antonio Garcia
*A Star Is Born- Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic, Jason Ruder and Steve Morrow

And the Oscar goes to...


This is a category where music-oriented films do exceptionally well, and it's looking to come down to Bohemian Rhapsody and A Star Is Born. Born's been the favorite here all season, but Rhapsody has slowly, but surely, inched closer and closer, with it eventually overtaking the former to win the BAFTA for Best Sound. Sure, it was always going to take BAFTA (it's Queen music for fuck's sake), but it's win there brought to reality a lingering feeling that it was going to walk away with this one. It's the bigger effort of the two, and BAFTA has only missed an eventual sound winner in either editing or mixing once this decade (The Revenant over Mad Max), and Rhapsody probably isn't winning editing. It's a close race, but hit song mixes is usually the ticket to victory here.

Power Rankings
1. Bohemian Rhapsody
2. A Star Is Born
3. First Man
4. Black Panther
5. Roma
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Best Makeup & Hairstyling

People who added this item 93 Average listal rating (54 ratings) 5.7 IMDB Rating 6.3
And the Nominees are...


*Border- Göran Lundström and Pamela Goldammer
*Mary Queen of Scots- Jenny Shircore, Marc Pilcher, and Jessica Brooks
*Vice- Greg Cannom, Kate Biscoe, and Patricia Dehaney

And the Oscar goes to...


Not quite a lock, but Vice has won all of the major precursors, and is the only BP nominees here (which is a, historically, strong predictor). Looks pretty strong.

Power Rankings
1. Vice
2. Mary Queen of Scots
3. Border
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Best Visual Effects

People who added this item 855 Average listal rating (593 ratings) 7.4 IMDB Rating 8.5
And the Nominees are...


*Avengers: Infinity War- Dan DeLeeuw, Kelly Port, Russell Earl and Dan Sudick
*Christopher Robin- Christopher Lawrence, Michael Eames, Theo Jones and Chris Corbould
*First Man- Paul Lambert, Ian Hunter, Tristan Myles and J. D. Schwalm
*Ready Player One- Roger Guyett, Grady Cofer, Matthew E. Butler and David Shirk
*Solo: A Star Wars Story- Rob Bredow, Patrick Tubach, Neal Scanlan and Dominic Tuohy

And the Oscar goes to...


With BAFTA and the Critics' Choice Awards going with Black Panther, the only precursor that one has to use here are the Visual Effects Society Awards. They went hard for Infinity War, giving it four, including their top prize. It also helps that it has the most visual effects, something that's usually a major bellwether for this award. However, First Man also won the society's second best prize for Best Supporting Visual Effects. While only one film that has won that prize has ever taken the Oscar (Hugo), First Man also has the benefit of being the most nominated film here, with three other nominations. It's a close race, one that easily could go either way (or to any of the other three), but I'm leaning towards Avengers. Taking into account that this year's nominees have leaned harder towards populism than usual, as well as how poorly First Man has done this season overall. It's one of my shakiest picks of the night though.

Power Rankings
1. Avengers: Infinity War
2. First Man
3. Ready Player One
4. Christopher Robin
5. Solo: A Star Wars Story
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Total Awards

*Roma: 4/10
Black Panther: 3/7
The Favourite: 3/10
Bohemian Rhapsody: 2/5
Vice: 2/8
Avengers: Infinity War: 1/1
BlacKkKlansman: 1/6
Green Book: 1/5
RBG: 1/2
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse: 1/1
A Star Is Born: 1/8
The Wife: 1/1

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