Predicting the Winners of the 2013 Oscars- RESULTS

And the nominees are...


*Amour
*Argo
*Beasts of the Southern Wild
*Django Unchained
*Les Misérables
*Life of Pi
*Lincoln
*Silver Linings Playbook
*Zero Dark Thirty

And the Oscar goes to...

**Argo**

[Update: After sweeping at the Globes, the Critics Choice, and every guild award out there, it appears that Argo is the overwhelming favorite to take the big one. Lincoln could still sneak in, but if anything were to dethrone Argo it would be Silver Linings Playbook, given it's strong momentum and a hard push from Harvey Weinstein.]

What I Said Earlier

All year, it looked like the Best Picture race would be one of the closest, most competitive ever. With at least three different films having a legitimate shot at the gold. Argo, Lincoln and Zero Dark Thirty looked as if they would be bitter rivals until the very end, that is until two of them, Argo and Zero Dark Thirty, missed out on the director category. Once again, the Academy has blown what could have been an exciting night, essentially crowning Lincoln already.

ZDT and Argo's chances look even worse when you stack them up against history; Not since Driving Miss Daisy in 1989 has a movie won best picture without recieving a nomination for it's director. Life of Pi scored big, coming in second overall with 11 nominations, but it really doesn't have much of a shot outside of some technical categories. Silver Linings Playbook also wowed with an impressive 8 nominations, but doesn't have the scale of the others. ZDT is pretty much a goner at this point, leaving Argo the only other candidate (it won the Critic's Choice and Golden Globe Award for Best Picture). Voter's might try to make up for snubbing Ben Affleck by awarding the film, but like I said above, without a director nod, it's chances are slim. The other four have really no shot at winning, leaving Lincoln the victor.

Was I Right: Damn skippy!

And the nominees are...


*Michael Haneke- Amour
*Ang Lee- Life of Pi
*David O. Russell- Silver Linings Playbook
*Steven Spielberg- Lincoln
*Benh Zeitlin- Beasts of the Southern Wild

And the Oscar goes to...

**Steven Spielberg- Lincoln**

[Update: Spielberg is still the favorite, but this is a category where a number of scenarios could come into play, except Zeitlin winning. Ben Affleck's snub will easily go down as one of the biggest ever, especially if Argo does win, but one thing that many pundits seem to froget is how many times the Academy screwed Spielberg. Giving him an Oscar this go around would make up for that, at least in their minds. Lee had arguably the most difficult task, taking a book that was considered by most to be "unfilmable," and turning into blockbuster, something the academy could take notice of. The, of course, there's David O. Russell, who could benefit from the Academy's percieved love of SLP. Haneke already has Best Foriegn Film in the bag, but enough love or the film could send him in.]

What I Said Earlier

I already talked about this above, but I'll reiterate. With the snubs of Ben Affleck and Kathryn Bigelow, this one basically is a lock for Spielberg. Zeitlin was the most shocking nod possibly of the entire race, but that shock value won't add up to much else. Haneke's already guaranteed an oscar for Amour in the Foreign Language Film category, so he's essentially out. If Silver Linings Playbook cleans up in the acting department, then O. Russell may have a shot, but it's highly unlikely. Life of Pi is in that weird state of being heavily nominated, but not really being on the radar, and is expected to win a few technical prizes, so Ang Lee might win, but it would take a miracle to beat Spielberg.

Was I Right: No. Ang Lee rigthfully won for his masterful direction of Life of Pi.

And the nominees are...


*Bradley Cooper- Silver Linings Playbook
*Daniel Day-Lewis- Lincoln
*Hugh Jackman- Les Misérables
*Joaquin Phoenix- The Master
*Denzel Washington- Flight

And the Oscar goes to...

**Daniel Day-Lewis- Lincoln**

[Update: This one's the same, his closest competitors, Jackman and Cooper, are still miles away.]

What I Said Earlier

All that I'll write here is that barring some collossal upset, Day-Lewis will become the first actor to win Best Actor three times.

Was I Right?: I think everybody with a brain was right on this one, and several who don't.

And the nominees are...


*Jessica Chastain- Zero Dark Thirty
*Jennifer Lawrence- Silver Linings Playbook
*Emmanuelle Riva- Amour
*Quvenzhané Wallis- Beasts of the Southern Wild
*Naomi Watts- The Impossible

And the Oscar goes to...

**Jennifer Lawrence- Silver Linings Playbook**

Update: The two woman race turned into three. Not only do Chastain and Lawrence have a feasible chance at winning, but now Emmanuelle Riva has emerged as a threat. Chastain's chances have diminished substantially since her Golden Globe win, but that doesn't rule her out completely. Riva could benefit from the percieved Oscar love for Amour, and the fact that this may be her last chance to win one, she's 86 years old. I still think Lawrence walks away with it though. The Academy obviously loves SLP, and they also love awarding young starlets.]

What I Said Earlier

It's a two woman race. Jessica Chastain vs. Jennifer Lawrence. It's really a coin toss between the two, but judging from the love that the Academy thrust SLP's way, it looks life Lawrence is the favorite. It still over a month until the awards are given out, and it will be an extremely close race until the end. Wallis will have to settle for being the youngest Best Actress nominee ever, not too shabby. Riva has an outside shot if the voters would split between Chastain and Lawrence, but the chances of that happening are slim. Watts has zero chance.

Was I Right?: Yes.

And the nominees are...


*Alan Arkin- Argo
*Robert De Niro- Silver Linings Playbook
*Philip Seymour Hoffman- The Master
*Tommy Lee Jones- Lincoln
*Christoph Waltz- Django Unchained

And the Oscar goes to...

**Robert De Niro- Silver Linings Playbook**

[Update: Silver Linings Playbook's late box office surge, as well as some heavy campaigning by the Weinsteins' lead me to beieve that De Niro will walk away with his third gold man. This category is still as up in the air as ever though. Tommy Lee Jones is still a tough competitor, and Arkin could ride the Argo train to a win. Waltz's late push could give him his second in three years. Seymour Hoffman probably had the toughest performance, but easily has the worst odds, but don't count him out.]

What I Said Earlier

This is easily the most up for grabs category in the race, with all five nominees having a shot. Christoph Waltz won the Golden Globe, and Django is highly successful, but he won the award just three years ago for a role a bit similar to this one. Philip Seymour Hoffman won the Critic's Choice, but The Master is just too polarizing a film, no matter how good he was. Arkin's in the same boat as Waltz, winning the award six years ago, and his role isn't as flashy as the others in the category. If Harvey Weinstein campaign's hard enough for Playbook then De Niro could easily take the gold, but with Lincoln being the overall favorite, it seems like a safe bet to go with Jones.

Was I Right?: No. Christoph Waltz took his second in three years for Django Unchained.

And the nominees are...


*Amy Adams- The Master
*Sally Field- Lincoln
*Anne Hathaway- Les Misérables
*Helen Hunt- The Sessions
*Jacki Weaver- Silver Linings Playbook

And the Oscar goes to...

**Anne Hathaway- Les Misérables**

[Update: No change, Hathaway's a lock.]

What I Said Earlier

She's won just about every award on the planet, it would be one of the biggest upsets ever if she lost.

Was I Right?: Yes.

And the nominees are...

*Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola- Moonrise Kingdom
*Mark Boal- Zero Dark Thirty
*John Gatins- Flight
*Michael Haneke- Amour
*Quentin Tarantino- Django Unchained

And the Oscar goes to...

**Quentin Tarantino- Django Unchained**

[Update: Tarantino is still my pick, but anything but Flight has a legitimate shot.]

What I Said Earlier

This one is a bit of a toss up. While QT has already bagged a Critic's Choice and Golden Globe for his screenplay (even more impressive when you factor in the Globes not classifying between Original or Adapted), he did virtually the same thing with Inglourious Basterds three years ago, only to lose to Mark Boal for The Hurt Locker. On the other hand, Zero Dark Thirty doesn't have the same momentum as The Hurt Locker, missing out on several of the categories it was supposed to have in the bag. I think they go with Tarantino this time around, simply because of the buzz currently surrounding Django. Moonrise Kingdom or Amour could easily sneak in if the top two split the vote, but that rarely happens. John Gatniss should just sit at the bar and start drinking early, because he has zero chance of winning.

Was I Right?: Yes.

And the nominees are...

*Lucy Alibar & Benh Zeitlin- Beasts of the Southern Wild
*Tony Kushner- Lincoln
*David Magee- Life of Pi
*David O. Russell- Silver Linings Playbook
*Chris Terrio- Argo

And the Oscar goes to...

**Chris Terrio- Argo**

[Update: If Argo is going to win Best Picture, then it'll have to win a few other awards, and given the fact that Terrio won the WGA award, it seems highly likely. SLP and Lincoln still have a viable shot, but Argo's momentum is just too powerful.]

What I Said Earlier

It's essentially a three movie race here. Beasts of the Southern Wild and Life of Pi are viewed as more visually oriented movies, and therefore are at a disadvantage when it comes to a writing category. With how much love they dished out for SLP, it wouldn't shock me if David O. Russell walked away with a trophy. Chris Terrio has an outside shot if Argo cleans up, but at this moment Kushner seems to be the favorite, having won every other adapted screenplay award.

Was I Right?: Yes.

And the nominees are...

* "Before My Time" from Chasing Ice- J. Ralph
* "Suddenly" from Les Misérables- Alain Boublil, Herbert Kretzmer and Claude-Michel Schönberg
* "Pi's Lullaby" from Life of Pi- Mychael Danna and Bombay Jayashri
* "Skyfall" from Skyfall- Adele Adkins and Paul Epworth
* "Everybody Needs a Best Friend" from Ted- Seth MacFarlane and Walter Murphy

And the Oscar goes to...

** "Skyfall" from Skyfall by Adele and Paul Epworth**

The movie Skyfall and the song "Skyfall" were such monumental hits, that it would be pretty shocking if this lost. Though, I will say to keep and eye out for "Suddenly", the Academy has never been very good with song choices, and this type of bait goes right up their alley.

Was I Right?: Yes.

And the nominees are...

*Mychael Danna- Life of Pi ---- Listen
*Alexandre Desplat- Argo --- Listen
*Dario Marianelli- Anna Karenina --- Listen
*Thomas Newman- Skyfall --- Listen
*John Williams- Lincoln --- Listen

And the Oscar goes to...

**Mychael Danna- Life of Pi**

[Update: Danna's been cleaning up as of late, including winning the Golden Globe. Williams has a great shot, but having already been awarded five puts him at an disadvantage. If Argo starts doing better than previously thought, Desplat could take his first.]

What I Said Earlier

Darionelli, Desplat, and Newman all composed some wonderful scores, but this one's down to Mychael Danna and John Williams. Williams walked away with the Critic's Choice, while Danna took home a Golden Globe. It's close, but at this point I have to go with Williams. Lincoln is the favorite to win Best Picture, and Williams last win was nearly 15 years ago. Danna could still win, but Williams' chances just look too good right now to deny.

Was I Right?: Yes.

And the nominees are...

*Anna Karenina- Seamus McGarvey
*Django Unchained- Robert Richardson
*Life of Pi- Claudio Miranda
*Lincoln- Janusz Kaminski
*Skyfall- Roger Deakins

And the Oscar goes to...

**Life Of Pi**

One of several two way races. Including this year, Roger Deakins has been nominated a whopping ten times without winning and unfortunately, I believe he'll be going home empty-handed again. Claudio Miranda has won various awards already, and Life of Pi is the visual-friendly Best Picture nominee. Deakins still has a strong shot, the Academy could see it as an opportunity to give him a lifetime achievement, but the opposition is just too strong this year.

Was I Right?: Yes.

And the nominees are...

*Argo- William Goldberg
*Life of Pi- Tim Squyres
*Lincoln- Michael Kahn
*Silver Linings Playbook- Jay Cassidy and Crispin Struthers
*Zero Dark Thirty- Dylan Tichenor and William Goldberg

And the Oscar goes to...

**Argo**


Was I Right?: Yes.

And the nominees are...


*Brave
*Frankenweenie
*ParaNorman
*The Pirates! Band of Misfits
*Wreck-It Ralph

And the Oscar goes to...

**Wreck It-Ralph**

[Update: I'm just guessing at this point, any of them, excluding Pirates really have a shot. If you want to play it safe, bet on Brave, but I'm going with my gut.]

What I Said Earlier

Another category where anything could happen (with the exclusion of Pirates winning). Brave is, at least in my mind, is the favorite, simply because of it's Pixar pedigree. Wreck-It Ralph and Frankenweenie are nipping at it's heels, with Ralph being a surprise critical and commercial success, and Frankenweenie possibly giving Tim Burton his first ever Oscar. ParaNorman has an outside shot if those three split the vote.

Was I Right?: No. Brave won, making it clear that even Pixar's weakest offerings are still more likely to win awards than the best of other companies.

And the nominees are...

*Amour (Austria)
*Kon-Tiki (Norway)
*No (Chile)
*A Royal Affair (Denmark)
*War Witch (Canada)

And the Oscar goes to...

**Amour**

Amour wins. End of story.

Was I Right?: Yes.

And the nominees are...

*Argo- Erik Aadahl & Ethan Van der Ryn
*Django Unchained- Wylie Stateman
*Life of Pi- Eugene Gearty & Philip Stockton
*Skyfall- Per Hallberg & Karen Baker Landers
*Zero Dark Thirty- Paul N.J. Ottosson

And the Oscar goes to...

**Skyfall**


Was I Right?: Kinda. Skyfall tied with Zero Dark Thirty.

*Argo- John Reitz, Gregg Rudoff & Jose Antonio Garcia
*Les Misérables- Andy Nelson, Mark Paterson & Simon Hayes
*Life of Pi- Ron Bartlett, D.M. Hemphill & Drew Kunin
*Lincoln- Andy Nelson, Gary Rydstrom & Ronald Judkins
*Skyfall- Scott Millan, Greg P. Russell & Stuart Wilson

And the Oscar goes to...

**Les Misérables**


Was I Right?: Yeah.

And the nominees are...

*Anna Karenina- Sarah Greenwood & Katie Spencer
*The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey- Dan Hennah, Ra Vincent & Simon Bright
*Les Misérables- Eve Stewart & Anna Lynch
*Life of Pi- David Gropman & Anna Pinnock
*Lincoln- Rick Carter & Jim Erickson

And the Oscar goes to...

**Lincoln**


Was I Right?: Yes.

And the nominees are...

*Anna Karenina- Jacqueline Durran
*Les Misérables- Paco Delgado
*Lincoln- Joanna Johnston
*Mirror Mirror- Eiko Ishioka
*Snow White and the Huntsman- Colleen Atwood

And the Oscar goes to...

**Anna Karenina**


Was I Right?: Yep.

And the nominees are...

*Hitchcock- Howard Berger, Peter Montagna, and Martin Samuel
*The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey- Peter Swords King, Rick Findlater, and Tami Lane
*Les Misérables- Lisa Westcott and Julie Dartnell

And the Oscar goes to...

**Les Misérables**

I really know nothing about how the Academy selects their Best Makeup award, but since there hasn't been a Best Picture nominee in the category since The Curious Case of Benjamin Button four years ago, I expect Les Miz to take it. The Hobbit is a strong candidate as well, and has an outside shot at the gold. Hitchcock really shouldn't have a shot, but seeing as The Iron Lady won with similar subject matter last year, it wouldn't surprise me if it did win.

Was I Right?: Si.

And the nominees are...

*The Avengers- Janek Sirrs, Jeff White, Guy Williams, and Dan Sudick.
*The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey- Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton, and R. Christopher White.
*Life of Pi- Guillaume Rocheron, Erik-Jan De Boer, and Donald R. Elliott.
*Prometheus- Richard Stammers, Trevor Wood, Charley Henley, and Martin Hill
*Snow White and the Huntsman- Cedric Nicolas-Troyan, Philip Brennan, Neil Corbould, and Michael Dawson.

And the Oscar goes to...

**Life of Pi**

Three words: Best Picture Nominee. One Name: Richard Parker.

Was I Right?: Like everyone, yes.