Predicting the Winners of the 2016 Oscars

And the nominees are...

*The Big Short
*Bridge of Spies
*Brooklyn
*Mad Max: Fury Road
*The Martian
*The Revenant
*Room
*Spotlight

And the Oscar goes to...

Final: If you're smart, go for The Revenant, because it has a hell of a lot of momentum, but if you wanna be crazy, like me, go for The Big Short. Out of all of the precursor awards, none have been better in the modern era than the PGA, which is the only one who uses a preferential ballot, where a a second or third place vote has about as much weight as a number one pick. The PGA this year went with The Big Short, which is a movie that I expect will do quite well with number two and three votes (I'd say it'll pick up a few No. 1's too). But I'm certainly not 100%. The Revenant has the momentum, winning at both the DGA and BAFTAs. Momentum is a big part of these awards, and it's certainly got it. My biggest pause with The Revenant is that it lost the PGAs, didn't score an Ensemble nod at the SAG awards, and didn't get a screenplay nomination. No movie has ever won with that combination.

Earlier: For the moment, this is the most up in the air best picture race in quite a while, with three legit candidates and just as many potential spoilers. The three "legit" candidates would be The Big Short, The Revenant, and Spotlight. The Revenant kicked off the awards season with a surprise win at the Golden Globes that had everybody racing to update they're picks; they really shouldn't have. While the HFPA can give something momentum, they're often incorrect win it comes to predicting Oscar nods. While Revenant could surprise, it's lack of a screenplay nod and best ensemble nod at the SAGs (two noms that you really need to get support) doesn't bode well.

That brings us to the two heavy hitters in the category. The Big Short's got the momentum; a big win at the Producer's Guild Award, which has predicted the BP winners every year since 2007 and has the same preferential voting system that the Oscars do. Add in the timely subject matter and the big, splashy filmmaking style and you've got a pretty heavy favorite. But it's not a foregone conclusion though. PGA voters claimed that the race was incredibly close between around five movies, presumably The Revenant and my pick, Spotlight.

Spotlight hasn't had the incredible awards season that most (including myself) were expecting, only picking up a best picture prize at the Critics' Choice Awards. But the movie has an important story, the type that'll have voters clamoring to give it the award, and an excellent ensemble cast. Actors are the largest voting branch, which is why any time a movie wins best ensemble at the SAG award, that movie jumps to the top of many lists; and it would be truly surprising to see this cast lose best ensemble. It's also the type of classic awards movie that people can't help but respect. It's a tight race, but at the moment I see Spotlight winning.

Power Rankings
1. The Big Short
2. The Revenant
3. Spotlight
4. Mad Max: Fury Road
5. The Martian
6. Room
7. Bridge of Spies
8. Brooklyn

Was I Right?: I was with my initial predictions, but missed when the stats got in my head. I was wrong, and Spotlight rightfully took Best Picture.

And the nominees are...


*Lenny Abrahamson- Room
*Alejandro González Iñárritu- The Revenant
*Tom McCarthy- Spotlight
*Adam McKay- The Big Short
*George Miller- Mad Max: Fury Road

And the Oscar goes to...

Final: Well, Iñárritu won the DGA and the BAFTA, so it appears that he's in the driver's seat here. If he loses, and after winning three last year voters may shift away from him, I think it'll either be McKay or Miller that takes it, but chances look fairly slim at the moment.

Earlier: Another race that seems like it could go to any of the nominees (though likely not Abrahmson), we'll have to wait for what the DGA does, which is the best at predicting this category (61 out of 67 times). At the moment, Im going with Miller; the last few years have been very kind to directors at the helm of cinematic spectacles, and few are as spectacular as the action on display in Fury Road. I suppose that an argument could be made about Iñárritu's grand scale in The Revenant, but the movie seems to be losing momentum and him winning last year puts him at a disadvantage. If Spotlight has stronger legs than we think it will, McCarthy could surprise, but his work isn't as pronounced as many others in this category. If there's going to be a spoiler to Miller this year, I think it'll be McKay. The Big Short has been skyrocketing recently, and is even now considered to be the BP favorite. A win at the DGAs wouldn't mean a lock, but combining it with the PGA award, would be a hell of a strong statement.

Power Rankings
1. Iñárritu
2. Miller
2. McKay
4. McCarthy
5. Abrahamson

Was I Right?: Yep.

And the nominees are...


*Bryan Cranston- Trumbo
*Matt Damon- The Martian
*Leonardo DiCaprio- The Revenant
*Michael Fassbender- Steve Jobs
*Eddie Redmayne- The Danish Girl

And the Oscar goes to...

This appears to be the lock of the night. On his fifth nomination, DiCaprio is finally going to get his Oscar. His closest competitors, likely Damon and Fassbender, are about a mile back.

Power Rankings
1. DiCaprio
2. Damon
3. Fassbender
4. Cranston
5. Redmayne

Was I Right?: Who wasn't?

And the nominees are...


*Cate Blanchett- Carol
*Brie Larson- Room
*Jennifer Lawrence- Joy
*Saoirse Ronan- Brooklyn
*Charlotte Rampling- 45 Years

And the Oscar goes to...

Almost as much of a lock as best actor; it's Larson's to lose. She's been the favorite all season long, and Room's surprise windfall can only help. If you're looking for a spoiler, I'd guess maybe Ronan. Many say that's it's the type of charming performance that could steal many voters' hearts. The rest of the field doesn't have much of a shot; few people like Lawrence's film and she won just three years ago, everybody loves Blanchett but she's already got two, and any hope for a Rampling upset was squashed with her recent statements on the #OscarsSoWhite controversy.

Power Rankings
1. Larson
2. Ronan
3. Blanchett
4. Rampling
5. Lawrence

Was I Right: Si.

And the nominees are...


*Jennifer Jason Leigh- The Hateful Eight
*Rooney Mara- Carol
*Rachel McAdams- Spotlight
*Alicia Vikander- The Danish Girl
*Kate Winslet- Steve Jobs

And the Oscar goes to...

Final:Vikander is still the favorite, but Winslet has really been gaining a lot of momentum after her BAFTA win, and the fact that she's defeated Vikander twice out of four showings. But, to be fair, she's yet to win against her for The Danish Girl (BAFTA and Globes nominated her for Ex Machina supporting), and I don't think she will here either. Winslet is highly respected, and will likely win another one at some point, but there just doesn't seem to be that much passion for her film, which only managed one other nod. When she does win again, I assume it'll be for a bigger film, and she'll have a lot more momentum than this.

Earlier: Probably the closest acting race of the night. Winslet won the Globe, but the HFPA seemed to have loved Steve Jobs a lot more than the Academy did; missing both the score and screenplay nods (and win for the script). The Hateful Eight didn't end up having the impact that many were expecting, and her performance wasn't as central as previously thought either. McAdams does solid work, but Spotlight has such an excellent ensemble that it was tough for anybody to really stand out. That leaves the main two competitors for the top prize; Mara and Vikander.

It would appear that the cries of category fraud didn't amount to much, as both have been pretty prominent in this category throughout the season. Their only head-to-head faceoff here, so far, has been the Critic's Choice Awards, where Vikander won. If she takes the SAG too, she'll look pretty locked in, and the fact that 2015 was a breakout year for her will likely have an impact. But don't rule Mara out just yet. Carol was the more warmly received of the two, and her previous nomination might look good to some voters wanting to reward a body of work (kinda). It could go either way, but Vikander does seem to have the momentum, which is good enough for me.

Power Rankings
1. Vikander
2. Winslet
3. Mara
4. Leigh
5. McAdams

Was I Right?: Indeed.

And the nominees are...


*Christian Bale- The Big Short
*Tom Hardy- The Revenant
*Mark Ruffalo- Spotlight
*Mark Rylance- Bridge of Spies
*Sylvester Stallone- Creed

And the Oscar goes to...

Final: After SAG went with Idris Elba, snubbed here, the only other nominee in this category to win anywhere was Mark Rylance at the BAFTAs; the only one nominated at all of the major award ceremonies. Stallone's still the favorite hear, and I doubt anyone wants to derail his lifetime achievement tour, but Rylance is quite respected, and Bridge of Spies clearly has more overall support than Creed. I don't think it'll happen, but an upset isn't out of the question. Neither is any of the other three nominees taking the prize; all if them are in films duking it out for the top prize. It's unlikely, but if Bale, Hardy, or Ruffalo win here, than that'll be a pretty strong indication of where BP will go.

Earlier:Whatever happens here, this will have been the oddest race that this category has had in years. There were about ten to fifteen potential nominees coming, and none of them look like the favorite. There's no J.K. Simmons or Jared Leto this year. Sometimes you just have to go with your gut, and my gut (along with a glut of others) is with Stallone. Most comebacks don't result in gold, but this one seems more sentimental. As Balboa, Stallone crafted the ultimate underdog; even when it was obvious he would win. In a year without a clear favorite, maybe an underdog is what we need. He's picked up a couple of trophies along the way (Golden Globe and Critics' Choice) but not the ones that signify a lock. In fact, he missed a nod with the SAG awards and BAFTAs (though Creed hasn't been released in the U.K. yet).

The only two actors that did get nods there (SAG & BAFTAs) were Rylance and Bale, with Rylance being the only one to get nods at the four televised shows. If Rylance wins both, I think Stallone still takes it; while Rylance is strong in Bridge of Spies, he doesn't actually have that much screen time. If they split, still Stallone, but if Bale takes both, then we have ourselves a genuinely exciting race. The Big Short has got the momentum now, and with support for the actors and Brits would go a very long way for making a case for Bale.

Ruffalo could snag his first for Spotlight, but like I said for McAdams; it was really a team effort. If there's someone who could pull off a real shocker, it'd likely be Hardy. The Revenant is clearly well liked, and Hardy had a phenomenal 2015. But the numbers just don't add up for him; the only other place he made the cut was at the Critics' Choice Awards, and nobody has ever won with just the backing of the critics.

Power Rankings
1. Stallone
2. Rylance
3. Ruffalo
4. Hardy
5. Bale

Was I Right?: Nope; Mark Rylance pulled off a mini-shocker for his subtle turn in Bridge of Spies.

And the nominees are...


*Charles Randolph and Adam McKay- The Big Short
*Nick Hornby- Brooklyn
*Phyllis Nagy- Carol
*Drew Goddard- The Martian
*Emma Donoghue- Room

And the Oscar goes to...

With the movie now seeming to be a formidable threat to take the top prize, The Big Short almost looks like a lock. They clearly have a lot of love for Room though, bringing it back into the discussion after it looked like it was fading away. Still, TBS has the momentum. Dirty Mike and the Boyz for the win!

Power Rankings
1. The Big Short
2. Room
3. The Martian
4. Brooklyn
5. Carol

Was I Right?: Yes.

And the nominees are...


*Matt Charman and Ethan Coen & Joel Coen- Bridge of Spies
*Alex Garland- Ex Machina
*Josh Cooley, Ronaldo Del Carmen, Pete Docter & Meg LeFauve- Inside Out
*Josh Singer and Tom McCarthy- Spotlight
*Jonathan Herman and Andrea Berloff, S. Leigh Savidge and Alan Wenkus- Straight Outta Compton

And the Oscar goes to...

One of only two best picture nominees here, and the only one that has a genuine chance of winning; Spotlight looks to have this one pretty sown up. Inside Out seems like the closest competitor here, but aside from animated feature (which it'll win) it's had a pretty lackluster season. Many think that with the most recent controversies that they'll give it to Straight Outta Compton as a sort of "sorry 'bout that" type thing, but considering all four writers are Caucasian, I think they have to understand that would likely create more friction.

Power Rankings
1. Spotlight
2. Inside Out
3. Bridge of Spies
4. Straight Outta Compton
5. Ex Machina

Was I Right?: Yes.

And the nominees are...

*Anomalisa
*Boy & the World
*Inside Out
*Shaun the Sheep Movie
*When Marnie Was There

And the Oscar goes to...

With box office success, critical acclaim, and every precursor under it's belt; Inside Out seems to be the runaway favorite. Anomalisa seems to be the closest potential spoiler, but it's had a fairly disappointing awards season, never popping the way that many expected.

Power Rankings
1. Inside Out
2. Anomalisa
3. Shaun the Sheep Movie
4. When Marnie Was There
5. Boy & the World

Was I Right?: Yes.

And the nominees are...

*Amy
*Cartel Land
*The Look of Silence
*What Happened, Miss Simone?
*Winter on Fire: Ukraine's Fight for Freedom

And the Oscar goes to...

Amy has been the favorite for a while, and everything that has happened in this award season so far has supported that.

Power Rankings
1. Amy
2. The Look of Silence
3. Cartel Land
4. What Happened, Miss Simone?
5. Winter on Fire

Was I Right?: Yes.

And the nominees are...

*Embrace of the Serpent
*Mustang
*Son of Saul
*Theeb
*A War

And the Oscar goes to...

This one really looks like Son of Saul's lose. It's won every precursor, and was the only one mentioned in Best Picture talk (not really, but slightly). Aside from maybe Mustang pulling a genuine surprise, I can't see many taking it down.

Power Rankings
1. Son of Saul
2. Mustang
3. Embrace of the Serpent
4. Theeb
5. A War

Was I Right?: Yes.

And the nominees are...

*Carter Burwell- Carol --- Listen
*Jóhann Jóhannsson- Sicario --- Listen
*Ennio Morricone- The Hateful Eight --- Listen
*Thomas Newman- Bridge of Spies --- Listen
*John Williams- Star Wars: The Force Awakens --- Listen

And the Oscar goes to...

A strong category with a lot of strong narratives. This is Newman's 13th nomination without a win, and he's way passed due. But it's hard not to think of John Williams when you hear his score, and the movie itself isn't getting the most love. On the opposite end of the spectrum, this is Burwell's first nomination in a career that goes back 30 years. It's a lovely score, but Carol also doesn't seem to have much momentum here; neither does Sicario, but Jóhannsson might get a few votes from his loss last year (The Theory of Everything). The race really seems to be between the two oldest, and most legendary, nominees in the category. This is Williams 50th nomination, but his only won five of them, and his last win was in 1994 for Schindler's List. They may want to reward him at least one more time, though it's likely he'll be here next year (for The BFG). Despite all of that, I think Morricone has the best chance. At 87 years old, with dozens of classic score under his belt, he's never won a competitive award (he does have an honorary one). Add in the general quality of score, it appears that he's the favorite.

Power Rankings
1. The Hateful Eight
2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3. Carol
4. Bridge of Spies
5. Sicario

Was I Right: Sì.

And the nominees are...

* "Earned It" from Fifty Shades of Grey- The Weeknd, Ahmad Balshe, Jason Daheala Quenneville and Stephan Moccio
* "Manta Ray" from Racing Extinction- J. Ralph and Antony Hegarty
* "Simple Song #3" from Youth- David Lang
* "Til it Happens to You" from The Hunting Ground- Lady Gaga and Diane Warren
* "Writing's On the Wall" from Spectre- Jimmy Napes and Sam Smith

And the Oscar goes to...

After a couple of relatively exciting years for the category, we're back to a pretty boring Original Song field this year. "Til It Happens to You" has gotta be the favorite here; it's the most "important" and, to be fair, likely the best overall. Plus, the song marks hit maker Diane Warren's eighth nomination (i.e. she's due). Nothing else seems like a real winner here, though I could see some residual Bond love for the subpar "Writing's On the Wall".

Power Rankings
1. "Til It Happens to You"
2. "Writing's On the Wall"
3. "Earned It"
4. "Simple Song #3"
5. "Manta Ray"
Was I Right?: No, "Writing's On the Wall" won, proving just how sad this category was this year.

And the nominees are...


*Roger Deakins- Sicario
*Edward Lachman- Carol
*Emmanuel Lubezki- The Revenant
*Robert Richardson- The Hateful Eight
*John Seale- Mad Max: Fury Road

And the Oscar goes to...

This one really looks like Chivo's to lose. These are all excellent candidates, but The Revenant is just on another level here. If there's gonna be a spoiler, it'd likely be Deakins, who's on his 13th nomination without a win, of Seale, who came out of retirement to shoot one of the most visually impressive action films ever.

Power Rankings
1. The Revenant
2. Sicario
3. Mad Max: Fury Road
4. Carol
5. The Hateful Eight

Was I Right?: Yeppers.

And the nominees are...


*Bridge of Spies- Adam Stockhausen, Rena DeAngelo and Bernhard Henrich
*The Danish Girl- Michael Standish and Eve Stewart
*Mad Max: Fury Road- Colin Gibson and Lisa Thompson
*The Martian- Celia Bobak and Arthur Max
*The Revenant- Jack Fisk and Hamish Purdy

And the Oscar goes to...

This is one of my more questionable picks. While most of the movie is in the wilderness, there are a number of sets and designs that I think will garner a lot of respect (especially that mountain of skulls). This is a strong category though, where really anything (minus The Martian) could win. If their going for the flashiest (and that's pretty frequent) then it'll be Fury Road. If they go for the most subtle, it'll be Bridge of Spies

Power Rankings
1. The Revenant
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. Bridge of Spies
4. The Danish Girl
5. The Martian

Was I Right?: No, the Academy went a little mad this year and Fury Road took it, one of it's six wins of the night.

And the nominees are...


*Jenny Beavan- Mad Max: Fury Road
*Paco Delgado- The Danish Girl
*Sandy Powell- Carol
*Sandy Powell- Cinderella
*Jacqueline West- The Revenant

And the Oscar goes to...

I tough category to call. The "prettiest" costumes usually take top prize here (i.e. the british period pieces or fantasy), and best picture nominees don't have the best track record; only two of the last ten (The Artist and The Grand Budapest Hotel) winners were nominees. Having said that, I think it'll change this year. The Danish Girl is lovely to look at, but it just doesn't seem to have that much support. The Revenant clearly has the love this year, but not many people walked out of the theater talking about the costumes. Sandy Powell is up for two and I think that it'll probably cancel her out, but I think Cinderella would be her winner if she takes it. Plus, she already has three trophies. In the end, I think that the love for Mad Max, and it's immaculate dystopic garb, will be enough to sway voters.

Power Rankings
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Cinderella
3. The Revenant
4. Carol
5. The Danish Girl

Was I Right?: Yeah.

And the nominees are...


*Mad Max: Fury Road- Lesley Vanderwalt, Elka Wardega, and Damian Martin
*The Revenant- Siân Grigg, Duncan Jarman, and Robert Pandini
*The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared- Love Larson and Eva von Bahr

And the Oscar goes to...

This is a category that alternately goes to the showiest and subtlest of work. Fury Road is the most evident, while The Revenant's work is more subtle, with grizzly hairstyles and mauling wounds. It could go to either one, but I think Fury Road's work is pretty hard to ignore.

Power Rankings
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. The Revenant
3. The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared

Was I Right?: Yes.

And the nominees are...

*The Big Short- Hank Corwin
*Mad Max: Fury Road- Margaret Sixel
*The Revenant- Stephen Mirrione
*Spotlight- Tom McArdle
*Star Wars: The Force Awakens- Maryann Brandon and Mary Jo Markey

And the Oscar goes to...

Final: Sixel has won the ACE, Critics' Choice, and BAFTA award for editing, and is the safe bet here, but if I'm The Big Short in Best Picture, then it's likely going to have to win more than two. But this certainly is a battleground category; if either TBS, The Revenant or Spotlight win here, they're taking the top prize. Mad Max, likely the favorite here, winning would just set all back to even stakes.

Earlier: Yet another below-the-line category that seems destined to go to Mad Max. Sixel's work on the film is incredibly crucial to the flow of the film. So is, arguably, her closest competitor, Corwin. The Big Short is such a rapid fire assault, that I could easily see it stealing the prize. The Revenant is obviously a tricky act for Mirrione, but so much of the praise for film's flow has gone to it's cinematography that I see it getting passed over for the more showy work. Star Wars just seems to niche too win here, even though it's a deserving nominee. If somehow Spotlight wins, expect a good night for the film.

Power Rankings
1. The Big Short
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. The Revenant
4. Spotlight
5. Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Was I Right?: No; once again MMFR took it.

And the nominees are...

*Mad Max: Fury Road- Mark A. Mangini and David White
*The Martian- Oliver Tarney
*The Revenant- Martin Hernández and Lon Bender
*Sicario- Alan Robert Murray
*Star Wars: The Force Awakens- Matthew Wood and David Acord

And the Oscar goes to...



Power Rankings
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. The Revenant
3. Sicario
4. The Martian
5. Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Was I Right?: Indeed.

And the nominees are...

*Bridge of Spies- Andy Nelson, Gary Rydstrom, and Drew Kunin
*Mad Max: Fury Road- Chris Jenkins, Gregg Rudloff, and Ben Osmo
*The Martian- Paul Massey, Mark Taylor, and Mac Ruth
*The Revenant- Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño, Randy Thom, and Chris Duesterdiek
*Star Wars: The Force Awakens- Andy Nelson, Christopher Scarabosio, and Stuart Wilson

And the Oscar goes to...

I had Fury Road here, and many predictors still do, but The Revenant took best sound at the BAFTAs, which has been right in this category since Slumdog Millionaire won here in 2009. They don't put a distinction between sound awards (Editing/Mixing), but this award usually aligns with Mixing more than editing, so I'm taking it. MMFR is still a strong bet, but with Revenant having the momentum, I'd say they split.

Power Rankings
1. The Revenant
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
4. The Martian
5. Bridge of Spies

Was I Right?: No, Fury Road once again, proving that I really should've just stuck with my early predictions.

And the nominees are...


*Ex Machina- Mark Williams Ardington, Sara Bennett, Paul Norris, and Andrew Whitehurst
*Mad Max: Fury Road- Andrew Jackson, Dan Oliver, Andy Williams, and Tom Wood
*The Martian- Anders Langlands, Chris Lawrence, Richard Stammers, and Steven Warner
*The Revenant- Richard McBride, Matt Shumway, Jason Smith, and Cameron Waldbauer
*Star Wars: The Force Awakens- Chris Corbould, Roger Guyett, Paul Kavanagh, and Neal Scanlan

And the Oscar goes to...

One of the closest categories of the night (and the night has several toss-ups). It's seems like a three-way rumble between Mad Max, The Revenant and Star Wars. If we go by history, than it's down to the best picture nominees; only once has a non-best picture nominee defeated best picture nominees (1970, Tora, Tora, Tora defeating Patton). But I think that knock's out The Force Awakens a little too swiftly. The franchise is an institution, and the most recent installment brought the series roaring back to life. Mad Max has a lot of respect, and the bear attack in The Revenant is one of the most thrilling in recent memory, but I think the Star Wars pulls out it's only win of the night.

Power Rankings
1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. The Revenant
4. The Martian
5. Ex Machina

Was I Right?: No, Ex Machina pulled off the shocker of the night winning for it's smaller scale (but no less impressive) work over it's bigger rivals.