Predicting the Winners of the 2015 Oscars

And the nominees are...


*American Sniper
*Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
*Boyhood
*The Grand Budapest Hotel
*The Imitation Game
*Selma
*The Theory of Everything
*Whiplash

And the Oscar goes to...

**Birdman**

Update: After taking top prize at the PGA, DGA, and SAG awards, the momentum is definitely behind Birdman. It's still very close between this and Boyhood, but with those stats backing it, Birdman is definitely in the driver's seat.

Earlier
The toughest Picture race in years. Boyhood has been the favorite since it premiered at Sundance over a year ago, but the last few weeks have been tough the film. Birdman, having spent most of the year nesting around third or fourth place, has come out as a legitimate threat, having won the PGA and SAG awards' top prize. The SAG doesn't usually correlate with the Oscars, but the winner of the PGA award has won best picture the past seven years (they gave Littler Miss Sunshine the top prize in 2006). Add in The Grand Budapest Hotel, which is tied for the most amount of nominations, The Imitation Game with the Weinstein's backing, and American Sniper, a box office powerhouse, and this is a legitimately thrilling race. Ultimately though, I'm sticking with Boyhood. It's frontrunner status will probably hurt it, but I think voters will be taken away with the technical achievement. I will definetly be watching the DGA and BAFTAs closely though.

Power Rankings
1. Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
2. Boyhood
3. The Grand Budapest Hotel
4. The Imitation Game
5. American Sniper
6. Selma
7. Whiplash
8. The Theory of Everything

And the nominees are...


*Wes Anderson- The Grand Budapest Hotel
*Alejandro González Iñárritu- Birdman
*Richard Linklater- Boyhood
*Bennett Miller- Foxcatcher
*Morten Tyldum- The Imitation Game

And the Oscar goes to...

**Richard Linklater- Boyhood**

Even though Iñárritu took the DGA award, I'm still leaning towards Linklater. He took the BAFTA, and even people who don't like the movie respect his effort. The smart money is on Iñárritu though, so if you want to win your pools, heed my advice.

Power Rankings
1. Richard Linklater
2. Alejandro González Iñárritu
3. Wes Anderson
4. Morten Tyldum
5. Bennett Miller

And the nominees are...


*Marion Cotillard- Two Days, One Night
*Felicity Jones- The Theory of Everything
*Julianne Moore- Still Alice
*Rosamund Pike- Gone Girl
*Reese Witherspoon- Wild

And the Oscar goes to...

**Julianne Moore- Still Alice**

This has got to be the biggest lock of the night. After numerous nominations in the past, this is when Moore will get her due. Don't expect a shocker here.

Power Rankings
1. Julianne Moore
2. Reese Witherspoon
3. Felicity Jones
4. Rosamund Pike
5. Marion Cotillard

And the nominees are...


*Steve Carell- Foxcatcher
*Bradley Cooper- American Sniper
*Benedict Cumberbatch- The Imitation Game
*Michael Keaton- Birdman
*Eddie Redmayne- The Theory of Everything

And the Oscar goes to...

**Eddie Redmayne- The Theory of Everything**

Update: I haven't changed my pick. Redmayne took the BAFTA, and only once has someone won the BAFTA and SAG and lost the Oscar (Daniel-Day Lewis in 2002 lost to Adrien Brody). Still, there's a part of me that wants to have the balls to go with Keaton (maybe that's just me hoping he wins). If Birdman starts cleaning up early though, he's got a shot.

Earlier: This is the most unpredictable Best Actor race in over a decade (or so it currently seems). With Redmayne winning the Golden Globe, SAG, an presumably the BAFTA (can't imagine hime losing in his home country), it would seem that the love for disabled or diseased characters at awards shows is still very strong. He's not a lock, but the momentum is definitely in his favor. Still a major threat and, depending on who you ask the, frontrunner is Michael Keaton. He's defintely well respected, winning both the Globe and the Critic's Choice award, and this is being called a career defining performance. Some have even speculated that SAG voters voted for Redmayne in Actor, knowing that Keaton would get an ensemble trophy. With Birdman currently surging, it would be surprising for the Academy to give it best picture without honoring Keaton, so he could ride that wave to a win. Either way, it's incredibly close. Another actor to possibly lookout for is Cooper who, while not receiving any precursor attention, is starring in a box office phenomenon. While in any other year something like that wouldn't matter, this year is so unpredictable that anything could swing the vote. If Keaton and Redmayne split, it will likely be Cooper who benefits.

Power Rankings
1. Eddie Redmayne
2. Michael Keaton
3. Bradley Cooper
4. Benedict Cumberbatch
5. Steve Carell

And the nominees are...


*Robert Duvall- The Judge
*Edward Norton- Birdman
*Ethan Hawke- Boyhood
*Mark Ruffalo- Foxcatcher
*J.K. Simmons- Whiplash

And the Oscar goes to...

**J.K. Simmons- Whiplash**

Power Rankings
1. J.K. Simmons
2. Edward Norton
3. Ethan Hawke
4. Mark Ruffalo
5. Robert Duvall

And the nominees are...


*Patricia Arquette- Boyhood
*Laura Dern- Wild
*Keira Knightley- The Imitation Game
*Meryl Streep- Into the Woods
*Emma Stone- Birdman

And the Oscar goes to...

**Patricia Arquette- Boyhood**

Another of three acting locks. It's a dangerous game betting against Arquette, so be warned.

Power Rankings
1. Patricia Arquette
2. Emma Stone
3. Keira Knightley
4. Meryl Streep
5. Laura Dern

And the nominees are...


*Armando Bo, Nicolás Giacobone,Alexander Dinelaris, & Alejandro González Iñárritu- Birdman
*Richard Linklater- Boyhood
*E. Max Frye and Dan Futterman- Foxcatcher
*Wes Anderson & Hugo Guinness- The Grand Budapest Hotel
*Dan Gilroy- Nightcrawler

And the Oscar goes to...

**Wes Anderson & Hugo Guinness- The Grand Budapest Hotel**

Update: After Anderson took the BAFTA and WGA, it would appear that The Grand Budapest Hotel is the current frontrunner. Birdman is still a strong contender here, and with BP oscar looking likely, they may just want to give it more hardware. Fun fact: if my predictions are correct then Wes Anderson, Alejandro González Iñárritu, and Richard Linklater all walk away with oscars, which would be an excellent result.

Earlier: Maybe the most hotly contested award of the night. Birdman, Boyhood, and The Grand Budapest Hotel are vying for the top spot, each a legitimate threat. Out of the three, I feel like Boyhood has the weakest chance. The film is much more a directorial achievement than a screenwriting one, and it just can't match the originality of the other two. Narrowing it down to these two, it's fairly neck-and-neck. Both have their merits, but with Birdman surging this late in the game, I feel like it's got the momentum.

Power Rankings
1. The Grand Budapest Hotel
2. Birdman
3. Boyhood
4. Nightcrawler
5. Foxcatcher

And the nominees are...


*Jason Hall- American Sniper
*Graham Moore- The Imitation Game
*Paul Thomas Anderson- Inherent Vice
*Anthony McCarten- The Theory of Everything
*Damien Chazelle- Whiplash

And the Oscar goes to...

**Graham Moore- The Imitation Game**

Another category with no lock. I'm going with The Imitation Game simply because it's the most awards-friendly, and out of the four BP nominees here, it looks the most likely to contend. Chazelle's got a strong shot too though, with Whiplash getting the added bonus (maybe even respect) of essentially being an original script, one that voters could really recognize. Sniper's script isn't particularly great, but the movie is so big that I have a feeling it's gonna shock somewhere.

Power Rankings
1. The Imitation Game
2. Whiplash
3. American Sniper
4. The Theory of Everything
5. Inherent Vice

And the nominees are...


*Big Hero 6
*The Boxtrolls
*How to Train Your Dragon 2
*Song of the Sea
*The Tale of The Princess Kaguya

And the Oscar goes to...

**How to Train Your Dragon 2**

Let's face it folks, this category is a whole lot less exciting than it would have been with The Lego Movie included. Having said that, in it's absence there's no real lock. How to Train Your Dragon 2 appears to be the favorite, but sequels have historically not been very fruitful here, and with the love that the GKids flicks have gotten, this seems a bit uncertain at the moment. I'll go with Dragon 2 for now, but I wouldn't be surprised to see another winner.

Power Rankings
1. How to Train Your Dragon 2
2. The Tale of The Princess Kaguya
3. Big Hero 6
4. Song of the Sea
5. The Boxtrolls

And the nominees are...


*Ida
*Leviathan
*Tangerines
*Timbuktu
*Wild Tales

And the Oscar goes to...

**Ida**

I'm taking Ida here. Foreign films that make it into other categories usually do well, and the movie's been the favorite for a while. Watch out for Leviathan though, it's coming on strong and it recently won a Golden Globe.

Power Rankings
1. Ida
2. Leviathan
3. Tangerines
4. Wild Tales
5. Timbuktu

And the nominees are...


*Citizenfour
*Finding Vivian Maier
*Last Days in Vietnam
*The Salt of the Earth
*Virunga

And the Oscar goes to...

**Citizenfour**

With Life Itself out of competition here, it looks like a lock for Edward Snowden pic Citizenfour.

Power Rankings
1. Citizenfour
2. Virunga
3. Finding Vivian Maier
4. The Salt of the Earth
5. Last Days in Vietnam

And the nominees are...

*Alexandre Desplat- The Grand Budapest Hotel --- Listen
*Alexandre Desplat- The Imitation Game --- Listen
*Jóhann Jóhannsson- The Theory of Everything --- Listen
*Gary Yershon- Mr. Turner
*Hans Zimmer- Interstellar --- Listen

And the Oscar goes to...

**Alexandre Desplat- The Grand Budapest Hotel**

Another category that could go a couple of ways. With two nominations this year, and six previous, things are looking pretty good for Desplat. As to which film he has the strongest bid with, I'm going with Grand Budapest simply because of the surprise love it's gotten this season. Another serious possibility is Jóhannsson, who won the Golden Globe and could benefit if both Desplat's nods split his votes.

Power Rankings
1. The Grand Budapest Hotel
2. The Imitation Game
3. The Theory of Everything
4. Interstellar
5. Mr. Turner

And the nominees are...

* "Everything is Awesome" from The Lego Movie- Shawn Patterson
* "Glory" from Selma- John Legend and Common
* "Grateful" from Beyond the Lights- Diane Warren
* "I'm Not Gonna Miss You" from Glen Campbell: I'll Be Me- Glen Campbell and Julian Raymond
* "Lost Stars" from Begin Again- Gregg Alexander and Danielle Brisebois

And the Oscar goes to...

**"Glory"- Selma**

This is a pretty strong category; one where each song has a shot. Will the academy atone for snubbing Selma and The Lego Movie? Will Dianne Warren finally win after six previous nominations. Can Harvey Weinstein grab a Begin Again win? Or will they honor Alzheimer's stricken Glen Campbell for his (likely) final song? I'm genuinely not swayed in any one direction, but I leaning toward "Glory". It won the Golden Globe and Critic's Choice award, and following the controversy of Selma's lack nominations, this could be a way to save face.

Power Rankings
1. "Glory"
2. "Everything is Awesome"
3. "I'm Not Gonna Miss You"
4. "Lost Stars"
5. "Grateful"

And the nominees are...

*Birdman- Emmanuel Lubezki
*The Grand Budapest Hotel- Robert Yeoman
*Ida- Łukasz Żal and Ryszard Lenczewski
*Mr. Turner- Dick Pope
*Unbroken- Roger Deakins

And the Oscar goes to...

**Birdman**

This is one of the biggest locks of the night. Lubezki's work is so integral to Birdman's success that it can't be ignored. If anyone can beat him, it would be Deakins, this being his 12th nomination without a win, but that's a pretty big longshot.

Power Rankings
1. Birdman
2. Unbroken
3. The Grand Budapest Hotel
4. Mr. Turner
5. Ida

And the nominees are...

*The Grand Budapest Hotel- Adam Stockhausen and Anna Pinnock
*The Imitation Game- Maria Djurkovic and Tatiana Macdonald
*Interstellar- Nathan Crowley and Gary Fettis
*Into the Woods- Dennis Gassner and Anna Pinnock
*Mr. Turner- Suzie Davies and Charlotte Watts

And the Oscar goes to...

**The Grand Budapest Hotel**

I can't honestly see any other outcome than The Grand Budapest Hotel sweeping both design categories.

Power Rankings
1. The Grand Budapest Hotel
2. Into the Woods
3. Interstellar
4. Mr. Turner
5. The Imitation Game

And the nominees are...

*The Grand Budapest Hotel- Milena Canonero
*Inherent Vice- Mark Bridges
*Into the Woods- Colleen Atwood
*Maleficent- Anna B. Sheppard
*Mr. Turner- Jacqueline Durran

And the Oscar goes to...

**The Grand Budapest Hotel**

1. The Grand Budapest Hotel
2. Mr. Turner
3. Into the Woods
4. Maleficent
5. Inherent Vice

And the nominees are...

*American Sniper- Joel Cox and Gary D. Roach
*Boyhood- Sandra Adair
*The Grand Budapest Hotel-Barney Pilling
*The Imitation Game- William Goldenberg
*Whiplash- Tom Cross

And the Oscar goes to...

**Boyhood**

Power Rankings
1. Boyhood
2. Whiplash
3. American Sniper
4. The Grand Budapest Hotel
5. The Imitation Game

And the nominees are...

*American Sniper- Alan Robert Murray and Bub Asman
*Birdman- Martin Hernández and Aaron Glascock
*The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies- Brent Burge and Jason Canovas
*Interstellar- Richard King
*Unbroken- Becky Sullivan and Andrew DeCristofaro

And the Oscar goes to...

**American Sniper**

Power Rankings
1. American Sniper
2. Birdman
3. Interstellar
4. Unbroken
5. The Hobbit: Battle of the Five Armies

And the nominees are...

*American Sniper- John Reitz, Gregg Rudloff and Walt Martin
*Birdman- Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño and Thomas Varga
*Interstellar- Gary A. Rizzo, Gregg Landaker and Mark Weingarten
*Unbroken- Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño and David Lee
*Whiplash- Craig Mann, Ben Wilkins and Thomas Curley

And the Oscar goes to...

**American Sniper**

Power Rankings
1. American Sniper
2. Whiplash
3. Birdman
4. Unbroken
5. Interstellar

And the nominees are...

*Foxcatcher- Bill Corso and Dennis Liddiard
*The Grand Budapest Hotel- Frances Hannon and Mark Coulier
*Guardians of the Galaxy- Elizabeth Yianni-Georgiou and David White

And the Oscar goes to...

**The Grand Budapest Hotel**

This is a very tough category. Any of the movies could win, but taking into consideration Hotel's momentum, I think it takes it here, and in several other below-the-line categories.

Power Rankings
1. The Grand Budapest Hotel
2. Guardians of the Galaxy
3. Foxcatcher

And the nominees are...

*Captain America: The Winter Soldier- Dan DeLeeuw, Russell Earl, Bryan Grill and Dan Sudick
*Dawn of the Planet of the Apes- Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, Daniel Barrett and Erik Winquist
*Guardians of the Galaxy- Stephane Ceretti, Nicolas Aithadi, Jonathan Fawkner and Paul Corbould
*Interstellar- Paul Franklin, Andrew Lockley, Ian Hunter and Scott Fisher
*X-Men: Days of Future Past- Richard Stammers, Lou Pecora, Tim Crosbie and Cameron Waldbauer

And the Oscar goes to...

**Interstellar**

Being totally honest, this may be a stronger category than this year's Best Picture race. Each one of these movies is strong, and in any other year would likely be a frontrunner. This year though, it boils down to two; Dawn and Interstellar. Either could honestly win, but with Interstellar's 5 total noms, it looks like the favorite, and I'll stick with it for now.

Power Rankings
1. Interstellar
2. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
3. Guardians of the Galaxy
4. X-Men: Days of Future Past
5. Captain America: The Winter Soldier