Predicting the Winners of the 2020 Oscars

And the Nominees are...

*Ford v Ferrari
*The Irishman
*Jojo Rabbit
*Joker
*Little Women
*Marriage Story
*1917
*Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
*Parasite

And the Oscar goes to...


1917 has won everything it needs to to be considered the runaway favorite to win (Golden Globe, PGA, DGA, BAFTA), and is the safe bet here. So then, why am I going with Parasite? Both have a great deal of momentum going right now, and each have major precursors that bode well for them. Parasite, though, has a major one in that SAG ensemble win. It wasn't an unexpected result (the rest of the field, while strong, seemed to safe, in hindsight, to be winners), but the fact that it beat films with such sprawling, legendary casts showed it's got some major love from the acting branch, the largest voting branch in the Academy. Another major bit from the SAG was that 1917 received no nominations, not even for it's stunt ensemble. While that can likely be attributed to the film's late premiere date, it's still a major crack in the frontrunner's armor. The Shape of Water and Green Book showed that you can win BP without a SAG Ensemble nod, but only Braveheart has won the top prize without any love from the actors' branch. Couple that with Parasite's booming momentum, overall love for the film (it'll definitely do well on a preferential ballot), and the Academy's increasing efforts to globalize these awards, and I think that's a perfect recipe for a surprise that makes Parasite the first non-English language feature to win this prize.

The rest of the field has thinned out as the season went on. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood was the favorite for a bit, winning the Critics' Choice and Golden Globe (Comedy) awards, but has lost the last several races. Whether the film was too on-the-nose even for Hollywood, or Tarantino's arrogance in his acceptance speeches rubbed voters the wrong way, it doesn't look like it's coming back. The Irishman was the early favorite, but it's a film that's proven to be more respectable than lovable. Joker leads the nominations this year, but I can't see it having a high enough level of admiration to win on a preferential ballot. Jojo Rabbit is likable, but a bit too amiable to win (plus, it's taken no major precursor). Ford v Ferrari, Little Women and Marriage Story were always going to be "happy to be nominated" films.

Power Rankings
1. Parasite
2. 1917
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
4. The Irishman
5. Joker
6. Jojo Rabbit
7. Marriage Story
8. Little Women
9. Ford v Ferrari

And the Nominees are...


*Bing Joon-ho- Parasite
*Sam Mendes- 1917
*Todd Phillips- Joker
*Martin Scorsese- The Irishman
*Quentin Tarantino- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

And the Oscar goes to...


After things looked tough here, with a roster of such huge names on the list, Mendes has taken every major precursor, including the all-important DGA, which has failed to predict the future Oscar winner only seven times in 71 years. Joon-ho, considering Parasite's growing momentum, is the only potential usurper here, but I think love for his is likely to be rewarded elsewhere.

Power Rankings
1. Mendes
2. Joon-ho
3. Scorsese
4. Tarantino
5. Phillips

And the Nominees are...


*Antonio Banderas- Pain & Glory
*Leonardo DiCaprio- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
*Adam Driver- Marriage Story
*Joaquin Phoenix- Joker
*Jonathan Pryce- The Two Popes

And the Oscar goes to...


He's won every major precursor, and he propelled a divisively-received picture to over a billion dollars and the most nominations this year; Phoenix has this one. It's a strong field, and I wouldn't rule out a shocker (Phoenix isn't a wholly beloved figure), particularly from Driver, who is buzzing at the moment, but I expect Phoenix to have the last laugh (sorry) for his powerhouse work.

Power Rankings
1. Phoenix
2. Driver
3. Banderas
4. DiCaprio
5. Pryce

And the Nominees are...


*Cynthia Erivo- Harriet
*Scarlett Johansson- Marriage Story
*Saoirse Ronan- Little Women
*Charlize Theron- Bombshell
*Renée Zellweger- Judy

And the Oscar goes to...


Zellweger is winning this. This is a down year for the category, and she's won every precursor around. Theron looked like a player early, but nobody gives a shit about Bombshell; Erivo's on the radar, and will be a contender going forward; Ronan will win one one day, but doesn't have the juice to take this one; Johansson would probably win if Marriage Story didn't forget about her after the first act.

Power Rankings
1. Zellweger
2. Johansson
3. Theron
4. Ronan
5. Erivo

And the Nominees are...


*Kathy Bates- Richard Jewell
*Laura Dern- Marriage Story
*Scarlett Johansson- Jojo Rabbit
*Florence Pugh- Little Women
*Margot Robbie- Bombshell

And the Oscar goes to...


After winning every precursor around, Dern looks to take her career achievement award for her role in Marriage Story. The only slight threat I see here is Johansson, who's dual nominations may extend her some voter sympathy (nobody wants to be a two-time loser in one night). That's a longshot though; this one is Dern's.

Power Rankings
1. Dern
2. Johansson
3. Robbie
4. Pugh
5. Bates

And the Nominees are...


*Tom Hanks- A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
*Anthony Hopkins- The Two Popes
*Al Pacino- The Irishman
*Joe Pesci- The Irishman
*Brad Pitt- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

And the Oscar goes to...


It's Pitt's to lose. He was the heavy favorite coming into the season, and his charming acceptance speeches for every precursor that he's one have only added to that. I can't see anyone else here beating him.

And the Nominees are...


*The Irishman- Steven Zaillian
*Jojo Rabbit- Taika Waititi
*Joker- Todd Phillips & Scott Silver
*Little Women- Greta Gerwig
*The Two Popes- Anthony McCarten

And the Oscar goes to...


While it isn't written in stone just yet, Waititi's wins from the BAFTA and WGA have got to make him the favorite. Of the eight times that BAFTA and WGA have lined up since 2000 (essentially the year that BAFTA broadened it's nominations to American films), seven have went on to win the Oscar (the outlier being Precious's stunning upset over Up in the Air a decade ago); i.e. history is, very much, on the Holocaust satire's side. Gerwig or Zaillian could rally though; a win for Gerwig would be seen as a makeup for snubbing her in directing, and The Irishman is clearly a well-respected film. Jojo is probably seen as the most singular, though; while it's the most divisive film of the three, Little Women, despite Gerwig's voice shining through, could be seen as just a great adaptation of a classic story, and The Irishman as a Scorsese film, where he is the main conductor behind all of the film's successes. It's probably close, but Waititi definitely has the momentum.

Power Rankings
1. Jojo Rabbit
2. Little Women
3. The Irishman
4. Joker
5. The Two Popes

And the Nominees are...


*Knives Out- Rian Johnson
*Marriage Story- Noah Baumbach
*1917- Sam Mendes & Krysty Wilson-Cairns
*Once Upon a Time in Hollywood- Quentin Tarantino
*Parasite- Bong Joon-ho and Jin Won-han

And the Oscar goes to...


Tarantino won the Critics' Choice and Golden Globes Awards, but Parasite has just exploded in the past month. While Tarantino's script is beloved, Joon-ho and Wan-han's is too, and many see it as a major contender to win the BP Oscar. It's close between Hollywood and Parasite, but the noise is to overwhelming to not go with the South Korean hit. Baumbach may have an outside shot if those two titans split.

Power Rankings
1. Parasite
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
3. Marriage Story
4. Knives Out
5. 1917

And the Nominees are...


*How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
*I Lost My Body
*Klaus
*Missing Link
*Toy Story 4

And the Oscar goes to...


I've got no clue. Klaus took the Annie and BAFTA awards, Missing Link took the Golden Globe, and Toy Story 4 won the Critics' Choice and, more importantly, the PGA award. While I had been leaning towards Toy Story, that BAFTA win for Klaus is big; BAFTA has only missed twice since it introduced the award in 2006, and one of those years their winner was snubbed by the Oscars (The Lego Movie). Then I checked the Golden Globe winners, and found that they've never snubbed an eventual winner, and Klaus was not nominated, where as Toy Story was. It's flimsy, but that gives me a hint that Klaus might not have the viewership numbers that the Pixar behemoth does.

Power Rankings
1. Toy Story 4
2. Klaus
3. Missing Link
4. I Lost My Body
5. How To Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

And the Nominees are...


*American Factory
*The Cave
*The Edge of Democracy
*For Sama
*Honeyland

And the Oscar goes to...


I don't know. American Factory has been in the mix all season, but the Brits really went hard for For Sama (it received four BAFTA nominations; the most ever for a documentary). Sama, also, has the heaviest subject matter (a couple trying to raise their child in Aleppo), and voters really go hard for that kind of thing. With that in mind, I'll go with a For Sama upset.

Power Rankings
1. For Sama
2. American Factory
3. The Cave
4. Honeyland
5. The Edge of Democracy

And the Nominees are...


*Corpus Christi
*Honeyland
*Les Misérables
*Pain & Glory
*Parasite

And the Oscar Goes to...


There's a very strong chance that it wins BP; it's, at the very least, winning this one.

And the Nominees are...


*Alexandre Desplat- Little Women
*Hildur Guðnadóttir- Joker
*Randy Newman- Marriage Story
*Thomas Newman- 1917
*John Williams- Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

And the Oscar goes to...


I was waiting for the BAFTA awards to settle this, and it did; Guðnadóttir is the one to beat. While longstanding bridesmaid Newman could score an upset, the Joker composer has the BAFTA, Critics' Choice and Golden Globe awards on her shelf; she's in the driver's seat.

Power Rankins
1. Joker
2. 1917
3. Marriage Story
4. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
5. Little Women

And the nominees are...

* "I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away" from Toy Story 4- Music & Lyrics by Randy Newman
* "I'm Gonna (Love Me Again)" from Rocketman- Music by Elton John; Lyrics by Bernie Taupin
* "I'm Standing with You" from Breakthrough- Music & Lyrics by Diane Warren
* "Into the Unknown" from Frozen II- Music & Lyrics by Kristen Anderson-Lopez & Robert Lopez
* "Stand Up" from Harriet- Music & Lyrics by Joshuah Brian Campbell and Cynthia Erivo

And the Oscar goes to...


Rocketman, I guess. It won the Golden Globe and Critics' Choice Awards (technically it tied, but still a win). Of the eight times that they've aligned since the Critic's started giving this award, six of them have won the Oscar; Alfie's "Old Habits Die Hard" and The Wrestler's title track won both, but weren't nominated for the Oscar. So, really every eligible dual winner took the Oscar. Add that to the narrative that this would be the first time that John and Taupin have won an award together, and it looks like the favorite.

Power Rankings
1. "I'm Gonna (Love Me Again)"
2. "Stand Up"
3. "Into the Unknown"
4. "I'm Standing with You"
5. "I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away"

And the Nominees are...


*Jarin Blaschke- The Lighthouse
*Roger Deakins- 1917
*Rodrigo Prieto- The Irishman
*Robert Richardson- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
*Lawrence Sher- Joker

And the Oscar goes to...


Deakins has had this one in the bag since the film was announced. After winning every precursor in sight for his work, it's a forgone conclusion that, after decades of snubs, he'll take home his second Oscar.

And the Nominees are...


*The Irishman- Sandy Powell and Christopher Peterson
*Jojo Rabbit- Mayes C. Rubeo
*Joker- Mark Bridges
*Little Women- Jacqueline Durran
*Once Upon a Time in Hollywood- Arianne Phillips

And the Oscar goes to...


Precursors are a bit tougher in some of these craft categories. You've got the Critics' Choice Awards, the Costume Designers' Guild, and the BAFTAs. The Critics have the best record here, only missing once in the past decade, but they're a moot point this time, as their winner Dolemite Is My Name was snubbed for a nomination. The CDG went with Jojo Rabbit in the Period category (Knives Out won for contemporary design and Maleficent took the fantasy category, but neither of those films were nominated) and BAFTA went with Little Women. Of those voting bodies, BAFTA has the better record when it comes to aligning with the Oscars, but they're only about 50% (10 out of 19 years). CDG, since it's first awards in 1996, have also predicted 10 winners. That said, they also have a habit of nominating the Oscar-winning film, something that BAFTA doesn't always do (take last year's winner Black Panther, for example). In fact, CDG hasn't missed nominating the eventual Oscar winner since 2001. The stats make this one all over the place, so I'll go with my gut; Little Women is the typical winner, and has the fancier costumes. Rubeo is still in though, and could easily win, as could Arianne Phillips, who was once seen as the favorite.

Power Rankings
1. Little Women
2. Jojo Rabbit
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
4. The Irishman
5. Joker

And the Nominees are...


*The Irishman- Bob Shaw and Regina Graves
*Jojo Rabbit- Ra Vincent and Nora Sopková
*1917- Dennis Gassner and Lee Sandales
*Once Upon a Time in Hollywood- Barbara Ling and Nancy Haigh
*Parasite- Lee Ha-jun and Cho Won-woo

And the Oscar goes to…


1917 took the BAFTA award; The Art Directors Guild took Parasite in Contemporary design and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood in Period (they went with Avengers: Endgame in Fantasy, but it's un-nominated); Critics' Choice Awards also went with Hollywood. While some are going for a surprise Parasite win here, I'm just not that bold; this category goes for big and/or pretty fantasies or period films and, as fun as it is to see it here, Parasite's nod is an anomaly. That, to my mind, narrows this race to 1917 and Hollywood. BAFTA and CDG have a fairly similar record for predicting Oscar winners lately; BAFTA's missed four times (2010, 2012, 2016, 2018) and ADG twice (2010 and 2012). While Ling and Haigh's Hollywood work is the more traditional winner (i.e. period, pretty), I'm leaning towards the technical feat of 1917. The sets had to be built and constructed with specific time limitations; if a scene was 10 minutes, they had to craft a set that could be used and gone through in ten minutes. It's a close one, but this is another that I see 1917 swiping.

Power Rankings
1. 1917
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
3. Parasite
4. The Irishman
5. Jojo Rabbit

And the Nominees are...

*Ford v Ferrari- Andrew Buckland and Michael McCusker
*The Irishman- Thelma Schoonmaker
*Jojo Rabbit- Tom Eagles
*Joker- Jeff Groth
*Parasite- Jinmo Yang

And the Oscar goes to...


This is another year where the precursors are all over the place. The Editors' Guild went with a surprise in awarding Parasite for drama and Jojo Rabbit; Critics' Choice punted and gave 1917 the award, un-nominated for Oscar; BAFTA threw another curveball into the race, awarding Ford v Ferrari. Hell, even the un-awarded have a shot; Joker's clearly well-liked, and this could be a one that Groth could surprisingly take, and Schoonmaker is a three-time winner and a legend, editing a three and a half hour epic. The Editors' Guild has the better record, accurately predicting the winner 39 out of 59 times, though BAFTA has a weird knack for predicting the surprise winners here (Hacksaw Ridge, Whiplash), and, since 1968, have failed to nominate the eventual editing Oscar winner 5 times (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Unforgiven, Born on the Fourth of July, The Right Stuff, The Towering Inferno, Patton). It's that stat there that gives me pause about going for Parasite, and instead makes me feel a bit better about going for Ford v Ferrari; it's the bigger film, and the most editing usually wins this category. I suppose it's possible that Jojo Rabbit could stun, but boy does that seem like a longshot. Look, I know this is a bullshit rationale, but I can't figure this category out, so here you go.

Power Rankings
1. Ford v Ferrari
2. Parasite
3. The Irishman
4. Jojo Rabbit
5. Joker

And the Nominees are...

*Ford v Ferrari- Donald Sylvester
*Joker- Alan Robert Murray
*1917- Oliver Tarney and Rachael Tate
*Once Upon a Time in Hollywood- Wylie Stateman
*Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker- David Acord and Matthew Wood

And the Oscar goes to...


I wrestled with this one a bit; both 1917 and Ford v Ferrari live or die by their sound, and these editing really killed it. Either could win, or even both (we've seen a tie here before), but 1917 just has too much momentum. Plus, I'm just not sure that voters know the difference between sound categories; i.e. editing and mixing are irrelevant, just "sound" itself. Ford v Ferrari is still a very strong contender though, so don't be surprised to see it take the prize.

Power Rankings
1. 1917
2. Ford v Ferrari
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
4. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
5. Joker

And the Nominees are...

*Ad Astra- Gary Rydstrom, Tom Johnson and Mark Ulano
*Ford v Ferrari- Paul Massey, David Giammarco, and Steven A. Morrow
*Joker- Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic and Tod Maitland
*1917- Mark Taylor and Stuart Wilson
*Once Upon a Time in Hollywood- Michael Minkler, Christian P. Minkler, and Mark Ulano

And the Oscar goes to...


This is the sound category I feel a little more confident about. Combining all of the different sounds and implementing them for a film structured to be a one-take film makes is a very high degree of difficulty, but the 1917 team knocks it out of the park. While Ford v Ferrari's got an excellent mix, the war picture's filmmaking conceit means that every sound has to be perfectly placed, or the trick doesn't work. It's a close one, but my gut says 1917 has it.

Power Rankings
1. 1917
2. Ford v Ferrari
3. Joker
4. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
5. Ad Astra

And the Nominees are...


*Bombshell- Kazu Hiro, Anne Morgan, and Vivian Baker
*Joker- Nicki Ledermann and Kay Georgiou
*Judy- Jeremy Woodhead
*Maleficent: Mistress of Evil- Paul Gooch, Arjen Tuiten, and David White
*1917- Naomi Donne, Tristan Versluis, and Rebecca Cole

And the Oscar goes to...


If BAFTA was willing to go for a film as little-seen and little-adored as Bombshell, it would be a surprise to see Oscar fail to do the same. Historically though, I wouldn't rule out a Joker or, even, 1917 spoiler (of the 18 times at least one BP nominee was also nominated here, only five times has the winner not been the, or one of the, BP nominee(s)).

Power Rankings
1. Bombshell
2. Joker
3. 1917
4. Judy
5. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil

And the Nominees are...


*Avengers: Endgame- Dan DeLeeuw, Matt Aitken, Russell Earl and Dan Sudick
*The Irishman- Pablo Helman, Leandro Estebecorena, Stephane Grabli, and Nelson Sepulveda
*The Lion King- Robert Legato, Adam Valdez, Andrew R. Jones, and Elliot Newman
*1917- Guillaume Rocheron, Greg Butler, and Dominic Tuohy
*Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker- Roger Guyett, Neal Scanlan, Patrick Tubach, and Dominic Tuohy

And the Oscar goes to...


Jesus, I don't know. The Lion King won with the Visual Effects Society, as did The Irishman (for supporting); 1917 took the BAFTA; Endgame won the Critics' Choice Award. The only thing that this tells me, definitively, is that Rise of Skywalker isn't winning. I don't think Endgame is, either; outside of Black Panther, Marvel is not beloved by the Academy, even outright loathed. I don't think it's going to be The Lion King, either. While the effects were heralded, the film itself didn't make much of a critical impact and, historically, when nominated, BP nominated pictures win this thing when nominated (since the award's inception, 20 years have featured at least one BP nominee; 19 of those years where won by BP nominees). Of those two, BAFTA is the stronger benchmark, and The Irishman's effects are still relatively divisive. I have no faith in it, but I'm taking 1917.

Power Rankings
1. 1917
2. The Irishman
3. The Lion King
4. Avengers: Endgame
5. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker