Predicting the Winners of the 2017 Oscars

And the nominees are...


*Arrival
*Fences
*Hacksaw Ridge
*Hell or High Water
*Hidden Figures
*La La Land
*Lion
*Manchester by the Sea
*Moonlight

And the Oscar goes to...


The biggest lock that this category has had since Slumdog Millionaire burst onto the scene; La La Land is winning.

Power Rankings
1. La La Land
2. Moonlight
3. Hidden Figures
4. Manchester by the Sea
5. Arrival
6. Hell or High Water
7. Fences
8. Hacksaw Ridge
9. Lion

Was I Right?: No; in a historic upset/clusterfuck, Moonlight won, but only after La La Land was announced. This was madness, maybe they won't fuck up the cards next year. Hopefully.

And the nominees are...


*Damien Chazelle- La La Land
*Mel Gibson- Hacksaw Ridge
*Barry Jenkins- Moonlight
*Kenneth Lonergan- Manchester by the Sea
*Denis Villeneuve- Arrival

And the Oscar goes to...


Chazelle's won every award on the block. He's pretty locked in. If there's a spoiler, maybe it'd be Jenkins, but La La is such a big achievement that it would be a surprise.

Power Rankings
1. Chazelle
2. Jenkins
3. Gibson
4. Lonergan
5. Villeneuve

Was I Right?: Indeed, the envelope was correct and Chazelle won.

And the nominees are...


*Isabelle Huppert- Elle
*Ruth Negga- Loving
*Natalie Portman- Jackie
*Emma Stone- La La Land
*Meryl Streep- Florence Foster Jenkins

And the Oscar goes to...


After taking the Globe, SAG, and BAFTA, Stone is in the top spot here. There's a lot of love for La La Land, and that will be shown off once again here. The only one that I think could get her is Huppert; she's been acting for a long time, is just now getting respect, and foreign actresses have surprised here before (Marion Cotillard surprised everyone when she upset Julie Christie in 2007). She's got power, she surprised everyone with her Globe win over Portman.

Power Rankings
1. Stone
2. Huppert
3. Portman
4. Streep
5. Negga

Was I Right?: Yes, the envelope was apparently right an Stone took it. She also won a write-in for Best Picture, so that's an accomplishment.

And the nominees are...


*Casey Affleck- Manchester by the Sea
*Andrew Garfield- Hacksaw Ridge
*Ryan Gosling- La La Land
*Viggo Mortensen- Captain Fantastic
*Denzel Washington- Fences

And the Oscar goes to...


Easily the most contested acting category of the night; this one's coming down to Affleck vs. Washington. Both give powerhouse turns, both have the precursors, both have momentum. Denzel shocked most people by taking the SAG Award, subsequently leading many to jump off Affleck's bandwagon; SAG has only missed here four times, and not since 2003 have they not correlated with the Oscars. Washington, however, had somehow never won a SAG award, so there is a solid possibility that the actors wanted to award one the best at their craft ever. Also, the SAG were quite progressive this year, championing non-white performers in both fields. It must be said though, that the acting branch makes up the largest of Academy voting, therefore Washington likely is the favorite.

Affleck has been the favorite all season, despite lingering sexual harassment claims (though that may have cost him the SAG, though probably not). He's taken the Critics' Choice, Golden Globe, and BAFTA award, all key precursors to Oscar win. While the BAFTA-Oscar correlation isn't as strong as SAG, there's a pretty strong overlap, and the fact that Washington wasn't even nominated there, despite being eligible, tells us that the British voters are much more keen to the Manchester star. Plus, the stats help him too; only once has the combination of BAFTA, BFCA (Critics), and HFPA (Globes) not won the Oscar. However, the one time that that stat didn't hold was in 2001, when Denzel Washington (Training Day) beat Russell Crowe (A Beutiful Mind). In the end, it comes down to a coin flip, and my gut tells me that it's going to be Affleck.

Power Rankings
1. Affleck
2. Washington
3. Gosling (who could sneak in if #1&2 split)
4. Garfield
5. Mortensen

Was I Right?: Yes, though Denzel is likely questioning the outcome now.

And the nominees are...


*Mahershala Ali- Moonlight
*Jeff Bridges- Hell or High Water
*Lucas Hedges- Manchester by the Sea
*Dev Patel- Lion
*Michael Shannon- Nocturnal Animals

And the Oscar goes to...


Ali looks pretty strong here. After winning the SAG, and giving a pretty memorable speech, he's got the actors, and the only, seeming, competition he really had (Aaron Taylor-Johnson won the Golden Globe for Nocturnal Animals) didn't even get nominated. Patel did win the BAFTA, and the BAFTAs have predicted a few spoilers in recent years; Alan Arkin beating Eddie Murphy in 2007, Waltz winning in 2013, and Mark Rylance taking it over Sylvester Stallone. There are a few differences there though; Murphy missed a BAFTA nomination (Which Ali didn't), and the release of Norbit (though it would be disputed today) certainly couldn't have helped; Waltz didn't get in at SAG, and he was in a class of all previous winners, as well as Django Unchained having had a solid amount of momentum at the time; Stallone was a sentimental favorite, but missed out at the only two precursors that really matter, the SAGs and BAFTAs. Rylance did not, and was nominated at all of these, and had a movie with broader support. Ali has been nominated everywhere, and won the most important precursor, the SAG. Probably Ali, though don't be surprised if it's Patel; the Brits really look after their own here.

Power Rankings
1. Ali
2. Patel
3. Shannon
4. Bridges
5. Hedges

Was I Right?: Yes.

And the nominees are...


*Viola Davis- Fences
*Naomie Harris- Moonlight
*Nicole Kidman- Lion
*Octavia Spencer- Hidden Figures
*Michelle Williams- Manchester by the Sea

And the Oscar goes to...


This is Davis's. Nobody else is coming close.

Was I Right?: Everybody was.

And the nominees are...


*Damien Chazelle- La La Land
*Giorgos Lanthimos and Efthymis Filippou- The Lobster
*Kenneth Lonergan- Manchester by the Sea
*Mike Mills- 20th Century Women
*Taylor Sheridan- Hell or High Water

And the Oscar goes to...


While La La Land has a lot of love in every category it's nominated for, most would agree that it's script is not the strongest of the bunch (hell, I'd venture to say that it's the weakest in the pack). Manchester by the Sea, however, would likely be at the top of most lists. It's an intimated, keenly-observed script that always seems like it's not even there (the film is incredibly natural). Chazelle could certainly win, Globe winners have a surprising Oscar-correlating rate, but it's hard to overlook the power of Lonergan's script (the BAFTA win is a strong helper too). Both are pretty close though, and if they split it would likely fall to Hell or High Water.

Power Rankings
1. Manchester by the Sea
2. La La Land
3. Hell or High Water
4. 20th Century Women
5. The Lobster

Was I Right?: Yep.

And the nominees are...


*Luke Davies- Lion
*Eric Heisserer- Arrival
*Barry Jenkins and Tarell Alvin McCraney- Moonlight
*Allison Schroeder and Theodore Melfi- Hidden Figures
*August Wilson- Fences

And the Oscar goes to...


While Hidden Figures is popping at just the right time, and Arrival represents an incredibly tricky narrative feat, Moonlight the only possible Picture winner here, and that'll likely carry it over. It doesn't hurt that the movie is well-loved, scoring eight nominations and mountains of praise. Getting moved to the Adapted bunch was the best thing that could've happened for Moonlight's script. Both won WAG awards; Arrival for Adapted and Moonlight for Original (it was moved because it was inspired by a non-produced play). While that does add some tension here, Moonlight has the momentum. Both could win though.

Power Rankings
1. Moonlight
2. Arrival
3. Lion
4. Hidden Figures
5. Fences

Was I Right?: Indeed, a Moonlight that was announced correctly!

And the nominees are...


*Kubo and the Two Strings
*Moana
*My Life as a Zucchini
*The Red Turtle
*Zootopia

And the Oscar goes to...


Zootopia has won nearly every award leading up to the Oscar, except the BAFTA (who went with Kubo), and is timely enough to sway even those who aren't too keen on as a political statement. While they clearly like most of this film's a lot, Kubo and Moana both have two nominations, Zootopia is the likely winner.

Power Rankings
1. Zootopia
2. Kubo and the Two Strings
3. Moana
4. The Red Turtle
5. My Life as a Zucchini

Was I Right?: Yes.

And the nominees are...


*Land of Mine
*A Man Called Ove
*The Salesman
*Tanna
*Toni Erdmann

And the Oscar goes to...


While Erdmann has been the odds-on favorite for most of the season, Trump's travel ban, and The Salesman's director's subsequent banning, has certainly swayed support for the Iranian film. Erdmann could certainly still win, but The Salesman just has the momentum and relevancy.

Power Rankings
1. The Salesman
2. Toni Erdmann
3. A Man Called Ove
4. Land of Mine
5. Tanna

Was I Right?: Yes.

And the nominees are...


*Fire at Sea
*I Am Not Your Negro
*Life, Animated
*O.J.: Made in America
*13th

And the Oscar goes to...


An exceptionally close race between O.J. and 13th could net either a win. Both got superb reviews, both are socially relevant, and both are crossover hits. While a lot of voters could see this as an opportunity to award Ava DuVernay, 13th's director, I think the Juice is once again loose. Stories about O.J. Simpson have been incredibly lucrative lately, and that timeliness, as well as the epic nature of Made in America's 7-and-a-half hour runtime, I believe will tip O.J. to a win.

Power Rankings
1. O.J.: Made in America
2. 13th
3. I Am Not Your Negro
4. Fire at Sea
5. Life, Animated

Was I Right?: Yes.

And the nominees are...

*Nicholas Britell- Moonlight --- Listen
*Justin Hurwitz- La La Land --- Listen
*Mica Levi- Jackie --- Listen
*Thomas Newman- Passengers --- Listen
*Dustin O'Halloran and Hauschka- Lion --- Listen

And the Oscar goes to...


Hurtwitz's win is preordained here. While the songs are quite good, the score gives the movie it's soul.

Power Rankings
1. La La Land
2. Nothing.

Was I Right?: Oui.

And the nominees are...

* "Audtition (The Fools Who Dream)" from La La Land- Music by Justin Hurwitz, Lyrics by Benj Pasek and Justin Paul
* "Can't Stop the Feeling" from Trolls- Music & Lyrics by Justin Timberlake, Max Martin, and Karl Johan Schuster
* "City of Stars" from La La Land- Music by Justin Hurwitz, Lyrics by Benj Pasek and Justin Paul
* "The Empty Chair" from Jim: The James Foley Story- Music & Lyrics by J. Ralph and Sting
* "How Far I'll Go" from Moana- Music & Lyrics by Lin-Manuel Miranda

And the Oscar goes to...


"City of Stars" seems pretty strong here. It took the Globe and the Critics' Choice Award, and has been the film's signifying song since the first trailer. It could also be, very easily, "Audition"; both create a well of emotion and ingratiate themselves to listeners. It's easy to think that "Audition" would find a place in listeners hearts. There's also the very real possibility that they split, and another song will sneak in. If that were to happen, I'd say it'd likely be "How Far I'll Go" from Moana. It's a big, emotionally-longing song from a very hot property, Lin-Manuel Miranda. People may want to see him EGOT early.

Power Rankings
1. "City of Stars"
2. "Audition (The Fools Who Dream)"
3. "How Far I'll Go"
4. "The Empty Chair"
5. "Can't Stop the Feeling"

Was I Right?: Ja.

And the Nominees are...


*Greig Fraser- Lion
*James Laxton- Moonlight
*Rodrigo Prieto- Silence
*Linus Sandgren- La La Land
*Bradford Young- Arrival

And the Oscar goes to...


Despite it's shocking loss at the ASC awards, I'm still sticking with Snadgren's work. The long takes, pastel coloring and lighting tricks check off boxes that a winner for this category usually needs. It's no lock though; the ASC went for a surprise and picked Fraser's work on Lion, and the oscars could certainly follow suit. It's got an epic sweep to it that so many winners here have had before, and he's got Weinstein backing working overtime in an attempt to keep his flick from going 0/6. We've also got Bradford Young's Malick-evoking work in Arrival, who could also pick up a couple of votes thanks to a more progressive attitude than in recent years (he's the first African-American to ever be nominated here).

Power Rankings
1. La La Land
2. Lion
3. Arrival
4. Silence
5. Moonlight

Was I Right?: Sim.

And the Nominees are...


*Colleen Atwood- Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
*Consolata Boyle- Florence Foster Jenkins
*Madeline Fontaine- Jackie
*Joanna Johnston- Allied
*Mary Zophres- La La Land

And the Oscar goes to...


I'm with a sort-of upset here and taking Fantastic Beasts. La La Land will be the night's big winner, and could very well win here, I'm not sure that this category has ever gone for a contemporary design; they like classical design that take more "effort" to recreate. Most, with this thinking, are going for Jackie's work; it took both the Critics' Choice Award and, more importantly, the BAFTA, who's winner often correlate with Oscar (they've been right for the past nine years). It's just that Jackie seems so plain here; it's par for the course. Beasts is too, but there's a vibrancy to Atwood's work that I think will attract people. Voters go big here, not subtle.

Power Rankings
1. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
2. Jackie
3. La La Land
4. Florence Foster Jenkins
5. Allied

Was I Right?: Indeed, I picked the surprise winner here. Clearly, this was the biggest surprise of the night...

And the nominees are...


*Arrival- Patrice Vermette and Paul Hotte
*Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them- Stuart Craig and Anna Pinnock
*Hail, Caesar!- Jess Gonchor and Nancy Haigh
*La La Land- Sandy Reynolds-Wasco and David Wasco
*Passengers- Guy Hendrix Dyas and Gene Serdena

And the Oscar goes to...


Yet another likely La La Land victory. The whole film has some wonderful sets, but the last 10 minutes feature the kind of lovely, classical sets that this category usually champions. I wouldn't call it a lock though; Hail, Caesar! also has what some would call "traditional" designs, and more of them too. Fantastic Beasts too has strong sets, and it has BAFTA backing; while that's likely a benefit of homecourt advantage, it could indicate that the film's got a stronger chance than most had expected. The Wascos likely have nothing to worry about though; everybody loves their film, and that'll likely carry it over here.

Power Rankings
1. La La Land
2. Hail, Caesar!
3. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
4. Arrival
5. Passengers

Was I Right?: Ken.

And the Nominees are...

*Tom Cross- La La Land
*John Gilbert- Hacksaw Ridge
*Jake Roberts- Hell or High Water
*Nat Sanders and Joi McMillon- Moonlight
*Joe Walker- Arrival

And the Oscar goes to...


I'm going with the upset here, and going with something other than La La Land. While the technical side of the hit musical is beyond reproach, the editing isn't as noticeable as other departments (namely the cinematography). Usually here, the most edited film wins; if that's true, then it'll probably be Hacksaw Ridge. The war scenes, the action, the frenzy; it all takes some very cohesive cutting to work, and Gilbert's work certainly hits the desired effect. However, I'm picking the work with the most meaningful editing, and that's Arrival. Without the Walker's skill, the impact of the ending just doesn't work. Sure, you can chalk that up to the writing, but without everything falling into place, then Arrival isn't the movie that it is.

Power Rankings
1. Arrival
2. La La Land
3. Hacksaw Ridge
4. Moonlight
5. Hell or High Water

Was I Right?: No, Hacksaw Ridge took it.

And the nominees are...

*Arrival- Sylvain Bellemare
*Deepwater Horizon- Wylie Stateman and Renée Tondelli
*Hacksaw Ridge- Robert Mackenzie and Andy Wright
*La La Land- Ai-Ling Lee and Mildred Iatrou Morgan
*Sully- Bub Asman and Alan Robert Murray

And the Oscar goes to...


One of the few categories where La La Land isn't the favorite to win, though it certainly could. I'm going with Hacksaw though; war/action movies do incredibly well here (creating bomb noises is likely more difficult than tap noises), and Hacksaw Ridge has the most sound effects here. Really though, this a category where any movie could probably win (well, expect probably Sully). Arrival could pull a surprise, but I'm still going with the war flick.

Power Rankings
1. Hacksaw Ridge
2. Arrival
3. La La Land
4. Deepwater Horizon
5. Sully

Was I Right?: No, this was Arrival's only win of the night.

And the nominees are...

*Arrival- Bernard Gariépy Strobl and Claude La Haye
*Hacksaw Ridge- Kevin O'Connell, Andy Wright, Robert Mackenzie, and Peter Grace
*La La Land- Andy Nelson, Ai-Ling Lee, and Steve A. Morrow
*Rogue One: A Stars Wars Story- David Parker, Christopher Scarabosio, and Stuart Wilson
*13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi- Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers, Jeffrey J. Haboush, and Mac Ruth

And the Oscar goes to...


This one seems pretty locked in. Musicals and music-themed films have an excellent record here, and La La Land is the most lauded musical ever. Arrival did take the BAFTA, but it'd be a pretty big upset here.

Power Rankings
1. La La Land
2. Arrival
3. Hacksaw Ridge
4. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
5. 13 Hours

Was I Right?: No, Hacksaw Ridge surprised here too. Maybe this should've been the one that hinted that La La Land wasn't gonna be the hitter many expected.

And the nominees are...

*A Man Called Ove- Eva von Bahr and Love Larson
*Star Trek Beyond- Joel Harlow and Richard Alonzo
*Suicide Squad- Alessandro Bertolazzi, Giorgio Gregorini, and Christopher Nelson

And the Oscar goes to...


Really, this could go to any of them; this category is wonky. There's no Best Picture nominee here this year (usually a clear winner), so it's likely that they go for the biggest work. That would mean Beyond or Suicide Squad, but Squad was so poorly received as a film that I'm inclined to go with Star Trek. They could go the surprise route and take Ove; the clearly like it (it's a Best Foreign Film nominee). For now, I'll take STB.

Power Rankings
1. Star Trek Beyond
2. A Man Called Ove
3. Suicide Squad

Was I Right?: They made bad movies, but they earned a profit and beat Marvel to the Oscar-punch; Suicide Squad won, giving the DCEU some validation.

And the nominees are...


*Deepwater Horizon- Craig Hammeck, Jason Snell, Jason Billington, and Burt Dalton
*Doctor Strange- Stephane Ceretti, Richard Bluff, Vincent Cirelli, and Paul Corbould
*The Jungle Book- Robert Legato, Adam Valdez, Andrew R. Jones, and Dan Lemmon
*Kubo and the Two Strings- Steve Emerson, Oliver Jones, Brian McLean, and Brad Schiff
*Rogue One: A Star Wars Story- John Knoll, Mohen Leo, Hal Hickel, and Neil Corbould

And the Oscar goes to...


It's a strong category, but this is looking like a win for The Jungle Book. The CGI creations of both characters and environments is a stunning technical feat, and I expect it to win out. If there's a spoiler, I'd probably tip Doctor Strange. It's trippy visual effects are the finest to come from the Marvel brand, and make the movie stand out from an otherwise pedestrian story.

Power Rankings
1. The Jungle Book
2. Doctor Strange
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
4. Kubo and the Two Strings
5. Deepwater Horizon

Was I Right?: Jes.