Predicting the Winners of the 2022 Oscars

And the Nominees are...

*Belfast
*CODA
*Drive My Car
*Don't Look Up
*Dune
*King Richard
*Licorice Pizza
*Nightmare Alley
*The Power of the Dog
*West Side Story

And the Oscar goes to...


CODA or The Power of the Dog. The Power of the Dog or CODA. CODA's momentum is hard to ignore. SAG and PGA are an incredible combo, and the marketing is positioning it as the little film that could; everyone loves an underdog. Dog has been the favorite all season, is likely winning director, and is the most nominated film. It's classic, artistic cinema vs. heartwarming filmmaking. Statistically, it's Dog by a wide margin; CODA would be the least nominated film in nearly a century to win this award, and it's missing big ticket categories like director and editing (only two films in history have won without nominations in either or both of those categories, and 1932's Grand Hotel was the last one). With that said, stats are stats; they're helpful, but sometimes you have to look at the present. This year, I don't think the stats are going to matter that much. I'm taking The Power of the Dog for the same reason many are going with CODA; the preferential ballot.

The preferential ballot started in 2010, with a ranked balloting system that gives weight to not just #1 picks, but also #2 and #3. In short, a more broadly admired film has more of a chance than a film with the most #1 votes. On it's face, this would seem to benefit CODA and limit The Power of the Dog. To those thinking this, it's entirely possible, if no probable. In practice, though, the preferential ballot has benefited the more auteur-driven work. After Argo's win, the only winning film that could be considered a broad, down-the-middle pick would be Green Book in 2019. 12 Years a Slave is not an easy film, especially compared to competitors American Hustle and Gravity; the small-scale Spotlight doesn't have the filmmaking heft of The Big Short or The Revenant; Moonlight's win over La La Land is an all-timer; The Shape of Water strikes the right balance between crowd-pleaser and filmmaker-driven; Parasite over 1917; Nomadland never even sweated Trial of the Chicago 7 or Minari. Harder movies are winning because they're getting first-place votes and second and third; even when they aren't beloved, they're respected. CODA has a great shot and is considered the favorite. It has a great deal of momentum. It'll score a ton of #1 votes. Will it do well with people who don't love it? I just don't know if it'll have the respect it'll need. Now, watch me be wrong.

Power Rankings
1. The Power of the Dog
2. CODA
3. Belfast
4. West Side Story
5. Dune
6. Drive My Car
7. King Richard
8. Licorice Pizza
9. Don't Look Up
10. Nightmare Alley

And the Nominees are...


*Paul Thomas Anderson- Licorice Pizza
*Kenneth Branagh- Belfast
*Jane Campion- The Power of the Dog
*Ryûsuke Hamaguchi- Drive My Car
*Steven Spielberg- West Side Story

And the Oscar goes to...


Whatever way the wind blows in most of the CODA vs. Power of the Dog battles, Campion seems to have director in the bag. Despite that terrible Critics' Choice speech, she won every precursor, and there doesn't seem to be any clear spoiler. If she loses, it'd be an all-time upset.

And the Nominees are...


*Javier Bardem- Being the Ricardos
*Benedict Cumberbatch- The Power of the Dog
*Andrew Garfield- tick, tick... BOOM!
*Will Smith- King Richard
*Denzel Washington- The Tragedy of Macbeth

And the Oscar goes to...


If Smith could win the BAFTAs, over Cumberbatch, then I can't imagine him losing the Oscar. He's won everything leading to this, and King Richard appears to have the kind of broad support he needs for a win.

Power Rankings
1. Smith
2. Cumberbatch
3. Garfield
4. Washington
5. Bardem

And the Nominees are...


*Jessica Chastain- The Eyes of Tammy Faye
*Olivia Colman- The Lost Daughter
*Penélope Cruz- Parallel Mothers
*Nicole Kidman- Being the Ricardos
*Kristen Stewart- Spencer

And the Oscar goes to...


Chastain is the favorite. It's been a wonky category this year, but her SAG win cemented her as the frontrunner, as does the fact that the film is likely winning Makeup. So why then am I going with Cruz? In the modern, more precursor-heavy era, no woman has ever won this award without a nomination, anywhere; no BAFTA, SAG, Critics' Choice or, even, Golden Globe nominations. A small film that few people outside of the film industry will have seen, how can it have the broad support of voters? Well, it's been playing in L.A. for months on end, and there seems to be a great deal of passion behind it; case in point, she got nominated without any precursor love. And while you shouldn't glean too much from these anonymous ballots being shown (it's a very small portion of voters), the fact that Cruz's name keeps popping up is startling, overwhelming even. This is a close race, one that could render any winner possible (none of these women are out of it), but I've been predicting one major stunner this year and I think this could be the one.

Power Rankings
1. Cruz
2. Chastain
3. Colman
4. Stewart
5. Kidman

And the Nominees are...


*Ciarán Hinds- Belfast
*Troy Kotsur- CODA
*Jesse Plemons- The Power of the Dog
*J.K. Simmons- Being the Ricardos
*Kodi Smit-McPhee- The Power of the Dog

And the Oscar goes to...


Kotsur and CODA are on a real momentum wave, and I expect it to continue here. He won the Critics Choice, BAFTA and SAG awards; pretty strong. Smit-McPhee could score the surprise, as he was the early favorite and could still have some residual love. It just doesn't seem likely though. Expect Kotsur.

Power Rankings
1. Kotsur
2. Smit-McPhee
3. Hinds
4. Plemons
5. Simmons

And the Nominees are...


*Jessie Buckley- The Lost Daughter
*Ariana DeBose- West Side Story
*Judi Dench- Belfast
*Kirsten Dunst- The Power of the Dog
*Aunjanue Ellis- King Richard

And the Oscar goes to...


It would be an all-time upset if DeBose lost this. She's won every precursor, and is likely WSS's only real threat. Dunst is a very slim spoiler shot, simply because Dog is so well-liked by voters and there's bound to be one major upset this year.

Power Rankings
1. DeBose
2. Dunst
3. Ellis
4. Buckley
5. Dench

And the Nominees are...


*CODA- Sian Heder
*Drive My Car- Ryûsuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe
*Dune- Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth
*The Lost Daughter- Maggie Gyllenhaal
*The Power of the Dog- Jane Campion

And the Oscar goes to...


While I do think this race is closer than current thinking dictates, I think CODA is probably winning here. Dog, unwisely, is seen as more of a directors' film, aided by the sparseness of the dialogue. I also think this is a chance for the Academy to recognize Heder, who was the chief creative voice behind what is, clearly, as film that has resonated. Think The Father vs. Nomadland last year (even if that analogy makes more sense with The Lost Daughter; if the film had more heat, I'd be adventurous and predict it).

Power Rankings
1. CODA
2. The Power of the Dog
3. The Lost Daughter
4. Drive My Car
5. Dune

And the Nominees are...


*Belfast- Kenneth Branagh
*Don't Look Up- Adam McKay and David Sirota
*King Richard- Zach Baylin
*Licorice Pizza- Paul Thomas Anderson
*The Worst Person in the World- Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt

And the Oscar goes to...


One of the tougher races of the night. No one is a clear favorite. Belfast won the Globe and Critics' Choice Awards, Licorice Pizza won BAFTA, and, gulp, Don't Look Up won WGA (where Belfast was ineligible). No one seems to have broad momentum here, meaning that any winner, sans-King Richard, is plausible. On sheer originality of concept, Don't Look Up has, but are voters really willing to go with what is wildly considered the worst script nominated this year, Original or Adapted? I wouldn't rule it out, but my head is telling me to stick with Branagh. Belfast seems to have a great deal of support, and I'm thinking that DLU's WGA win was more a result of Branagh being ineligible that of broad support for the satire. Plus, if Licorice Pizza was going to run away with it, it would've won WGA. That said, the Brits went hard for PTA's flick, so there could be international support for that film. We'll see. Worst Person seems to have international traction, too, so a big surprise there is possible. Belfast seems like the safe bet, though.

Power Rankings
1. Belfast
2. Licorice Pizza
3. Don't Look Up
4. The Worst Person in the World
5. King Richard

And the Nominees are...

*Drive My Car
*Flee
*The Hand of God
*Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom
*The Worst Person in the World

And the Oscar goes to...


I wouldn't rule out a Worst Person in the World surprise, but Drive My Car clearly has deep love within the Academy, becoming only the 13th non-English language film nominated for BP. It's the favorite.

Power Rankings
1. Drive My Car
2. The Worst Person in the World
3. The Hand of God
4. Flee
5. Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom

And the Nominees are...


*Ascension
*Attica
*Flee
*Summer of Soul
*Writing with Fire

And the Oscar goes to...


Flee has clear love, scoring three nominations, and Attica scored a surprise DGA win, but this has been Summer of Soul's category to lose all season. It's won all major precursors, sans DGA, and has the most broad appeal.

Power Rankings
1. Summer of Soul
2. Flee
3. Attica
4. Ascension
5. Writing with Fire

And the Nominees are...


*Encanto
*Flee
*Luca
*The Mitchells vs. the Machines
*Raya and the Last Dragon

And the Oscar goes to...


This should be Encanto's. It's the most broadly nominated film here (I put more stock in it's crossover music nominations than Flee's nominated in documentary and international film), and it's won almost all of the precursors. The Mitchells did win the Annie Award, but they don't have the stats here that the PGA does.

Power Rankings
1. Encanto
2. The Mitchells vs. the Machines
3. Flee
4. Luca
5. Raya and the Last Dragon

And the nominees are...


* "Be Alive" from King Richard- Music & Lyrics by Beyoncé Knowles-Carter & DIXSON
* "Dos Oruguitas" from Encanto- Music & Lyrics by Lin-Manuel Miranda
* "Down to Joy" from Belfast- Music & Lyrics by Van Morrison
* "No Time to Die" from No Time to Die- Music & Lyrics by Billie Eilish & Finneas O'Connell
* "Somehow You Do" from Four Good Days- Music & Lyrics by Diane Warren

And the Oscar goes to...


It's entirely possible that Encanto could surprise here. The animated hit was lauded for it's original songs and, with three total nominations (including in a stacked score category), it clearly has crossover appeal. I can't help but feel, though, that it having the wrong song here will kill it's chances. "Dos Oruguitas" is a lovely little song, but "We Don't Talk About Bruno" probably would've taken it in a walk. While I wouldn't rule out the Academy giving Manuel-Miranda his de facto Oscar for "Bruno" (he did write every song in the soundtrack). More likely, I think, is that they award the actual nominated song, and go for "No Time to Die". It's won all of the precursors (including a Grammy, before the film was even released), and 007's last two themes have won here, and if "Writing's on the Wall" can win, so can this one. Don't count "Dos Oruguitas" or even "Be Alive", though. This category can be wild sometimes.

Power Rankings
1. "No Time to Die"
2. "Dos Oruguitas"
3. "Be Alive"
4. "Down to Joy"
5. "Somehow You Do"

And the Nominees are...


*Nicholas Brittell- Don't Look Up
*Germaine Franco- Encanto
*Jonny Greenwood- The Power of the Dog
*Alberto Iglesias- Parallel Mothers
*Hans Zimmer- Dune

And the Oscar goes to...


Zimmer's won all of the precursors and hasn't won an Oscar in almost 30 years, despite being nominated 10 times since. It's probably time for another. Greenwood's has an okay spoiler shot (if he does win here, the Dog team may be in for a better than expected night).

Power Rankings
1. Dune
2. The Power of the Dog
3. Encanto
4. Parallel Mothers
5. Don't Look Up

And the Nominees are...


*Bruno Delbonnel- The Tragedy of Macbeth
*Greig Fraser- Dune
*Janusz Kamiński- West Side Story
*Dan Laustsen- Nightmare Alley
*Ari Wenger- The Power of the Dog

And the Oscar goes to...


Despite winning the ASC and BAFTA awards, I still wouldn't call Dune a safe bet. There's been a weird apprehension to make this one a clear favorite in several categories. I'm giving the edge here, but I feel very conflicted. The Power of the Dog could take, making Ari Wegner the first female winner here; it'd be a deserving, historic win that I could see some voters going for. I could also see them going wild and giving Delbonnel his first for his stunning black-and-white Macbeth (a trend they've been going for for the past few year). Hell, I could see Kaminski sneaking in for his third for his beautiful staging of WSS's musical moments. I'll take Fraser here, because of the stats and his personal momentum (he's been getting a ton of additional praise for his work on The Batman), but it's close.

Power Rankings
1. Dune
2. The Power of the Dog
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth
4. West Side Story
5. Nightmare Alley

And the Nominees are...


*Dune- Patrice Vermette and Zsuzsanna Sipos
*Nightmare Alley- Tamara Deverell and Shane Vieau
*The Power of the Dog- Grant Major and Amber Richards
*The Tragedy of Macbeth- Stefan Dechant and Nancy Haigh
*West Side Story- Adam Stockhausen and Rena DeAngelo

And the Oscar goes to…


I had Dune for the longest time, but something stuck out to me going through previous winners; period wins. Fantasy does well, fantasy/period slays, but period is a killer. Also, heavy VFX films don't have a great history here either (Avatar, Alice in Wonderland, Fury Road and Black Panther are exclusions). Nightmare Alley, to me, strikes the right balance; there's CGI, but it's hard, period-noir sets. del Toro has a strong record here, with two winners; Villeneuve has three nominees, but no winners. It's 50/50, but I'm just leaning towards Nightmare Alley.

Power Rankings
1. Nightmare Alley
2. Dune
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth
4. West Side Story
5. The Power of the Dog

And the Nominees are...


*Cruella- Jenny Beaven
*Cyrano- Massimo Cantini Parrini and Jacqueline Durran
*Dune- Jacqueline West and Robert Morgan
*Nightmare Alley- Luis Sequeira
*West Side Story- Paul Tazewell

And the Oscar goes to...


This one has been Cruella's for nearly a whole year. Dune's a very, very slight spoiler possibility, but I expect Beaven to win her fourth.

Power Rankings
1. Cruella
2. Dune
3. Nightmare Alley
4. Cyrano
5. West Side Story

And the Nominees are...

*Belfast- Denise Yarde, Simon Chase, James Mather and Niv Adiri
*Dune- Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill and Ron Bartlett
*No Time to Die- Simon Hayes, Oliver Tarney, James Harrison, Paul Massey and Mark Taylor
*The Power of the Dog- Richard Flynn, Robert Mackenzie and Tara Webb
*West Side Story- Todd A. Maitland, Gary Rydstrom, Brian Chumney, Andy Nelson and Shawn Murphy

And the Oscar goes to...


Dune's won all the precursors, so it's the overwhelming favorite. Musicals are always spoilers here though, so don't be too surprised if West Side Story takes it.

Power Rankings
1. Dune
2. West Side Story
3. No Time to Die
4. The Power of the Dog
5. Belfast

And the Nominees are...

*Don't Look Up- Hank Corwin
*Dune- Joe Walker
*King Richard- Pamela Martin
*The Power of the Dog- Peter Sciberras
*tick, tick... BOOM!- Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum

And the Oscar goes to...


Who the hell knows. BAFTA went with No Time to Die; un-nominated. Critics took West Side Story; un-nominated. Editors' Guild went with King Richard and tick, tick... BOOM!; nominated. So, by that logic, it should be either of those two; precursors are the best at predicting future winners. But Richard and BOOM! would be such atypical winners. The Williams biopic has some strong work, but it's not incredibly noticeable. In theory, that should make it the runaway favorite, but this is a category that values most editing (which is why something as frantic as Don't Look Up has a legit shot here). The Jonathan Larson stage adaptation, in contrast, has some very noticeable editing, but the film isn't nominated for BP; only once in the expanded BP field has a film not nominated for Best Picture won this award (2011's The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo). Neither have sound nominations either, which the winner here has had for the past 15 years.

Dune and The Power of the Dog do, but neither have won precursors. The former, a sci-fi epic that is going to win numerous awards this year, was the presumed frontrunner going into the season, but has, wildly, not won anything. The latter is in the race for BP, and is slow and measured; not typically a winning formula. BAFTA and ACE are pretty strong predictors, especially the British award; only nine times since 1967 has the eventual Oscar winner not been nominated. Dune and Power were the only two here to score BAFTA nominations. I'm playing safe and taking Dune. I think the film's scale and action will, finally, win out. Don't be surprise if any of these films win though, (even Don't Look Up).

Power Rankings
1. Dune
2. King Richard
3. The Power of the Dog
4. tick, tick... BOOM!
5. Don't Look Up

And the Nominees are...


*Coming 2 America- Mike Marino, Stacey Morris and Carla Farmer
*Cruella- Nadia Stacey, Naomi Donne and Julia Vernon
*Dune- Donald Mowat, Love Larson and Eva Von Bahr
*The Eyes of Tammy Faye- Stephanie Ingram, Linda Dowds and Justin Raleigh
*House of Gucci- Göran Lundström, AnnaCarin Lock and Frederic Aspiras

And the Oscar goes to...


Though I still think Dune has an okay shot here, The Eyes of Tammy Faye took BAFTA, and is another in a recent trend of heavy-makeup biopics. The category has slowly evolved into Best Re-Creation of a Famous Person, and Tammy Faye's team should benefit from that.

Power Rankings
1. The Eyes of Tammy Faye
2. Dune
3. Coming 2 America
4. Cruella
5. House of Gucci

And the Nominees are...


*Dune- Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor and Gerd Nefzer
*Free Guy- Swen Gillberg, Bryan Grill, Nikos Kalaitzidis and Dan Sudick
*No Time to Die- Charlie Noble, Joel Green, Jonathan Fawkner and Chris Corbould
*Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings- Christopher Townsend, Joe Farrell, Sean Noel Walker and Dan Oliver
*Spider-Man: No Way Home- Kelly Port, Chris Waegner, Scott Edelstein and Dan Suddick

And the Oscar goes to...


Maybe the lock of the night.