2025 Oscar Nomination Predictions

1.

Seems the safest now, despite the strong backlash as of late. Still, #1-#4 are your win contenders, with #5-#8 pretty safely in.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

8.

9.

After those top eight, there are about another eight or so that have a legit shot here. Of the bunch, A Real Pain feels like it's on the firmest ground. It's been a consistent presence throughout the season, got a big PGA nomination, and has an almost certain acting win. Clearest road in.

10.

There are a lot of options for the #10 spot. September 5 got the PGA nomination, and has the "important" subject matter that typically wins out. It could very well score the spot, but there are some big strikes against it. First, there are no are clear nominations for this film. It's not getting director, it's (likely most importantly) not getting any acting nominations; no score, sound, costumes or production design. It's got a real shot at editing, but that's a very crowded field. Screenplay should be a given, considering that it's in original and that's a pretty thin field this year. But it's underperformed there all season. It got a critics' choice award nod, but it was ineligible at WGA and snubbed by BAFTA. It could prevail here, but it just doesn't seem to have the passion behind it.

Passion typically translates to smaller films, which is where I'm heading. With the last spot, I think it's probably coming to that passion vote, which leads me to go with Sing Sing here. I had Nickel Boys, which has had some incredible notices, in for a while, but with, seemingly, one spot left here, it's A24 sibling just makes more sense. It's got a sure-fire acting nomination, and is pretty likely for a screenplay nomination, too. Nickel Boys could done surprisingly well nomination morning (Picture, Director, Cinematography, Screenplay), or it could come away empty-handed; Sing Sing just seems to have more broad support.

Other Possibilities

11.

12.

13.

Could international voting push this one in? Most would put All We Imagine as Light as the second potential non-English language player here, but it not being in the International Language lineup (India did not submit it), and it not really having any other prospects (if Director were less stacked, Payal Kapadia might have a shot at shocking), gives me pause. I'm Still Here is in the International Feature race, has some notoriety after that surprise Golden Globe win, and could surprise in a few categories this year. I don't expect it to happen, but it's not totally out of the realm of possibility.

14.

If it had scored a PGA nod maybe, but it looks like this is just a down the line contender.

15.

It's a critically acclaimed hit with a bevy of likely nominations down the line. Is it being slept on? I don't expect it, but late breaking hits have shocked the race before.

1.

Brady Corbet- The BrutalistA sprawling, personal, three-and-a-half-hour epic shot on film; he's the favorite unless he loses DGA.

2.

Jacques Audiard- Emilia PerezTotal lock, could very well win.

3.

Sean Baker- AnoraProbably safe. He's been nominated everywhere, and the film has been pretty prominent throughout the season (including a wild SAG ensemble nod). I could see him being the big snub this year, but I really doubt it.

4.

Edward Berger- ConclaveHe was snubbed a few years ago for All Quiet on the Western Front, but that felt more like a non-auteur/first-timer test; if you've got the goods, you'll be back. He's scored all of the major precursors (including DGA) and Conclave is a legitimate contender. Probably safe.

5.

Coralie Fargeat- The SubstanceMangold got the fifth DGA spot, but they always go more populist. Odds are, the last spot is of the auteur-driven variety. And Fargeat has consistently been the fresh, new-kid-on-the-block auteur player this year. The Substance has been a breakout out success, a legitimate contender in various categories, and it's a singular, audacious work, i.e. it'll sway a lot in the directors' branch. RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys) and/or Payal Kapadia (All We Imagine As Light) could fit this bill too, so don't be surprised if one of them sneaks in.

Other Possibilities

6.

James Mangold- A Complete UnknownThe DGA nomination is big, and the movie seems very well-like by the guilds, but I think it'll be too mainstream for this branch's tastes. Could be wrong though.

7.

Denis Villeneuve- Dune: Part TwoThe BAFTA nomination brought him back into the conversation, but I think this will be a LOTR scenario; if he's going to be honored, it'll be for the last of the trilogy.

8.

RaMell Ross- Nickel Boys

9.

John M. Chu- Wicked: Part 1Maybe, but despite the film being so successful, he's only managed a Critics' Choice nomination; if he couldn't even score a Globe nomination, or a DGA, I'd be surprised to see him score here.

10.

Payal Kapadia- All We Imagine as Light

1.

Mikey Madison- AnoraNot the overwhelming favorite to win necessarily, but the least likely to be snubbed. She's in.

2.

Demi Moore- The SubstanceI don't know if she's winning, but that surprise Globe's win speech showed she wants it. Might be enough this year. SAG, BAFTA noms to boot; she's in.

3.

Karla Sofía Gascon- Emilia PerezLocked in for a historic nomination.

4.

Cynthia Erivo- Wicked: Part 1Only one of the "locks" that I could see missing. It wasn't a universally beloved performance, and this is a category loaded with passion-picks that could gain momentum over her. But she's gotten in at all of the major precursors (including SAG), and the movie is a hit, i.e. she's probably still in.

5.

Fernanda Torres- I'm Still HereI hate to put much emphasis on a Globes win, but it was both great publicity and a reminder that the international branch of the Academy has been growing over the years (particularly Latin voters). Plus, the competition is a bit wobbly here, too. Pamela Anderson is having a great comeback, and her film has some surprising prospects in multiple categories (more later), but I just don't know if it'll be enough to both break the stigma of her bombshell days, and/or be able to coexist with the more prominent comeback in this category (Demi Moore). Kidman was acclaimed, again, but the film never took hold. Jolie was acclaimed, but her film never took hold. Jean-Baptiste could be a real spoiler here (she scored a big BAFTA nom), but Hard Truths just hasn't taken off either, even in home Britain (when Mike Leigh can't score a BAFTA screenplay nomination, you know it's not hitting). Ronan scored the other BAFTA slot, but that felt like a category filler, and The Outrun has no other prospects but her.

Other Possibilities

6.

Marianne Jean-Baptiste- Hard Truths

7.

Pamela Anderson- The Last Showgirl

8.

Angelina Jolie- Maria

9.

Nicole Kidman- Babygirl

10.

Saoirse Ronan- The Outrun

1.

Adrien Brody- The BrutalistStill early to call him the winner, but he's probably the safest bet thus far.

2.

Timothée Chalamet- A Complete UnknownIf he wins SAG, which looks pretty good, he might be able to pull off his first win.

3.

Ralph Fiennes- ConclaveLock.

4.

Colman Domingo- Sing SingA lock. The movie's small, but beloved, and he's quickly becoming and Academy favorite.

5.

Sebastian Stan- The ApprenticeThis one really seems to be down to Craig or Stan. The both scored Globe nods, but split the other predictors. Craig got the SAG nod, but missed a gimme BAFTA nomination, where as Stan missed SAG and got a surprise BAFTA bid. Lately, SAG has been the stronger predictor here, but I just don't know if Queer has the heat to score on him alone. Meanwhile, The Apprentice is a legit player in a couple of categories, including another acting spot, and Stan got a little boost from a Globe win for another film. He could split with himself, but I think the notoriety of the Trump origin tale will give him the edge.

Other Possibilities

6.

Daniel Craig- Queer

7.

Hugh Grant- HereticOr Grant could surprise. He, too, scored a BAFTA nod, as well as Critics' Choice and Golden Globe nominations. I might've gone with him if Heretic had any juice in another category (screenplay, for example, would've been a smart push), but this feels like a beloved performance that was just too niche for Academy tastes.

8.

Sebastian Stan- A Different ManIt's likely the more acclaimed performance, from the more acclaimed film, but if he gets in, The Apprentice feels like the likelier culprit.

9.

Jesse Eisenberg- A Real PainMaybe? If the movie's got more juice than expected and/or his costar's likely win can lift him up. Probably not, but it's not totally out of the question.

1.

Kieran Culkin- A Real PainThere are a lot of ways that this category could shake out nomination-wise, but Culkin is winning this thing anyway.

2.

Edward Norton- A Complete UnknownProbably the safest of the non-winners. Nominated everywhere else, the movie's well-liked.

3.

Yura Borisov- AnoraAfter the top two, there are about five or six guys for three spots. Of the bunch, Borisov, surprisingly, seems to be the safest. He's been nominated at all the major precursors (BAFTA, Critics' Choice, Globes, SAG), and Anora is a major BP player, i.e. his work will have eyes on it.

4.

Guy Pearce- The BrutalistThat SAG miss was big, and could be a sign of weakness here, but I'm still inclined to go with Pearce here. The Brutalist is one of the biggest players this year, and he's potentially seen as being due for some consideration. I'd honestly be a bit surprised to see him miss, but not exactly stunned.

5.

Jeremy Strong- The ApprenticeI kept Denzel as long as I could here but, as good as he is in the movie, Gladiator II was just not beloved enough, overshadowed by most other late-year pics (particularly Wicked). If even SAG wouldn't nominated him, then it may be time to pack it up. With that in mind, #5 comes down to Strong or Maclin for me. Maclin is in a movie I'm predicting to score a BP nom, and it's a breakout performance, but Strong has a big, showy role in a big, notorious movie. He also has precursor backing; BAFTA, Globes, SAG. It's very close, but my gut is leaning towards Strong.

Other Possibilities

6.

Clarence Maclin- Sing Sing

7.

Denzel Washington- Gladiator II

8.

Jonathan Bailey- WickedHe got the last SAG spot, but boy would it be a stunner to see him make it in, especially in a field this packed. It's possible, but SAG's tastes tend to be broader than most voting bodies.

1.

Zoe Saldana- Emilia PérezProbably the winner.

2.

Ariana Grande- Wicked: Part 1If she wins SAG, we could have a race.

3.

Monica Barbaro- A Complete UnknownAfter those two, who knows. Barbaro isn't the name brand that the others here are, but the guilds seemed to love A Complete Unknown, and she's a major part of the film's success. She could split votes with her costar Elle Fanning, and the bigger names could overtake her, but the SAG nod was enough for me.

4.

Isabella Rossellini- ConclaveShe doesn't have a particularly juicy part in the film, but it's beloved, and she's a screen veteran who's never been nominated before. This feels like a career achievement spot.

5.

Jamie Lee Curtis- The Last ShowgirlThis last spot, for me, comes down to Curtis and Jones. Jones is in the bigger player, and has been predicted here for months, but there's been rumors that have been floating around that many voters aren't watching this movie, or only watching the first half (she's in the second, prominently). I don't trust many Academy rumors, but I do when it comes to voter laziness. This fact, mixed with a few other elements (Curtis's clear love and momentum for her performance, the SAG and BAFTA nominations, and the extended voting period), lead me to believe that Curtis is scoring her second nomination. It's exceptionally close, though.

Other Possibilities

6.

Felicity Jones- The Brutalist

7.

Selena Gomez- Emilia PerezResponse to her performance has been mixed, but so too has the response to her film; momentum is momentum. If this film cleans up on nomination morning, don't be surprised to see her in (the BAFTA nod is a strong plaudit).

8.

Danielle Deadwyler- The Piano LessonThe SAG nomination is important, as is the perception that she's due after the Till snub a few years ago, but The Piano Lesson just never hit. Netflix botched the rollout, and this is a movie that needed a little more push to stay in voters minds; an early-November dumb wasn't it.

9.

Margaret Qualley- The SubstanceShe needed a SAG and/or BAFTA nod to stay in this, but it feels like the love for this film has consolidated around Moore. Could still surprise, but it seems unlikely now.

10.

Elle Fanning- A Complete UnknownNBR winner, and in a beloved film, but if she couldn't score a SAG bid, it seems unlikely. Fun spoiler potential, though.

1. Sean Baker- Anora
2. Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold- The Brutalist
3. Coralie Fargeat- The Substance
4. Jesse Eisenberg- A Real Pain
5. Justin Kuritzkes- Challengers

#1-#3 feel like absolute locks, with Eisenberg not that far off. That leaves the #5 spot. September 5 seems to be the consensus pick here, but I'm just not sure if it's a Writers' branch screenplay. They go for fact-based dramas quite a bit, but does it have the pop that Challengers has? I'm not sure. Granted, many could just write off Kuritzkes screenplay as a mere blueprint for his director to go off (and he did), so this could be close. Leigh's another name here, but if he couldn't score a BAFTA nod, I'm not convinced. Kneecap did get a BAFTA nod, and could be a fun spoiler, but I just don't know if it has the heat on this side of the pond. Could be wrong.

Other Possibilities

6. Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum, and Alex David- September 5
7. Mike Leigh- Hard Truths
8. Rich Peppiatt, Naoise Ó Cairealláin, Liam Óg Ó Hannaidh, and JJ Ó Dochartaigh- Kneecap
9. Payal Kapadia- All We Imagine As Light
10. Alex Garland- Civil War

1. Jacques Audiard- Emilia Pérez
2. Peter Straughan- Conclave
3. Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar- Sing Sing
4. RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes- Nickel Boys
5. Murilo Hauser and Heitor Lorega- I'm Still Here

#1 & #2 are the only real locks here, though Sing Sing feels pretty safe (it scored a BAFTA and Critics' Choice nod; I have it in BP). I feel pretty okay with Nickel Boys here, too. It score BAFTA and WGA nominations, and it's POV-infused narrative is the kind of feat of writing that this branch should go nuts for. So then, what's #5? I expect Dune: Part Two to get Two Tower'd, missing the major categories and scoring down-the-line bids. A Complete Unknown got the BAFTA and WGA spot, and this is a year where it could really slip in, but it just doesn't scream "screenplay nod" to me (good script; better songs). Hit Man scored a WGA nom, but it feels more like a fill-in-this-space nod than a passion pick (lotta WGA slots open from disqualification). Wicked, despite being a major player throughout, would frankly stun me here. It got a WGA slot, but musicals have never had a great record here, let alone Broadway adaptations; Chicago is the last one, 22 years ago. With all of this in mind, I'm going with a wild card and taking I'm Still Here. Non-English language pictures have been doing well here as of late (including this year at #1), and Walter Salles films have been here before (The Motorcycle Diaries did 20 years ago). Plus, it feels like more of screenwriters' film than any of the other contenders here. Gut play.

Other Possibilities

6. James Mangold and Jay Cocks- A Complete Unknown
7. Denis Villeneuve and Jon Spaihts- Dune: Part Two
8. Winnie Holzman and Dana Fox- Wicked
9. Richard Linklater & Glen Powell- Hit Man
10. Pedro Almodóvar- The Room Next Door

1. No Other Land
2. Sugarcane
3. Daughters
4. Black Box Diaries
5. Dahomey

Other Possibilities

6. Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat
7. Will & Harper
8. Porcelain Wars
9. The Bibi Diaries
10. Frida

1. Emilia Pérez (France)
2. I'm Still Here (Brazil)
3. Kneecap (Ireland)
4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany)
5. The Girl with the Needle (Denmark)

Other Possibilities

6. Flow (Latvia)
7. Vermiglio (Italy)
8. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (Thailand)
9. From Ground Zero (Palestine)
10. Touch (Iceland)

1. The Wild Robot
2. Flow
3. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
4. Inside Out 2
5. Memoir of a Snail

Other Possibilities

6. Moana 2
7. The Glassworker
8. Look Back
9. Kung Fu Panda 4
10. Piece by Piece

1. Daniel Blumberg- The Brutalist
2. Volker Bertelmann- Conclave
3. Camille and Clément Ducol- Emilia Pérez
4. Robin Carolan- Nosferatu
5. Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross- Challengers

The top three are all locked in, but after that there seems to be a consensus that there's three films for two spots. Strangely, I feel safest going with Nosferatu. It's come on strong in the home stretch; the film is a hit, and it's going to do well come nomination morning. The score, also, nabbed a major BAFTA nomination. Feels like a late-breaker in a rather thin field. After that, it's two of the most acclaimed of the year battling it out; Challengers and The Wild Robot. The former won the Golden Globe, which many would think is a guarantee, but that body has gone their own way before, with five winners in the past 25 years missing the Oscar nomination entirely. It, also, has a film that is a fringe nominee at best, while The Wild Robot is still the presumptive favorite in it's major field. But it's also an animated film. While animation has found success here, even lately, the last couple of years have had some major animated snubs here (Across the Spider-Verse, The Boy and the Heron, Pinocchio), and Dreamworks animation films, in particular, have had a pretty rough track record here. Only once, in fact, has a Dreamworks animated film been nominated here; 2010's How to Train Your Dragon. It's a 50/50 call, but my gut tells me to bet on live-action.

Other Possibilities

6. Kris Bowers- The Wild Robot
7. Hans Zimmer- Blitz
8. John Powell- Wicked
9. Alberto Iglesias- The Room Next Door
10. Bryce Dessner- Sing Sing

1. "El Mal"- Emilia Pérez
2. "Mi Camino"- Emilia Pérez
3. "The Journey"- The Six Triple Eight
4. "Like a Bird"- Sing Sing
5. "Kiss the Sky"- The Wild Robot

The top two are locks, with #3 looking pretty much set (it's the Diane Warren spot). After that...? Sing Sing's a BP contender, so it felt right. Unlike score, I went with the animated song over Challengers, which I think will end up being to music-y for this branch, not enough words, not varied enough from the score. This is a category for spoilers, though, so anything could squeeze in.

Other Possibilities

6. "Compress/Repress"- Challengers
7. "Will and Harper Go West"- Will and Harper
8. "Never Too Late"- Elton John: Never Too Late
9. "Sick in the Head"- Kneecap
10. "Winter Coat"- Blitz

1. Lol Crawley- The Brutalist
2. Jarin Blaschke- Nosferatu
3. Greig Frasier- Dune: Part Two
4. Stéphane Fontaine- Conclave
5. Jomo Fray- Nickel Boys

I'm pretty safe with #1-#3, though I could buy the argument that Fraiser's win for the first Dune, coupled with the early release date, makes him weaker here (very possible). I had Fontaine out for a while, but Conclave is just an immaculately crafted film, I that includes some terrific compositions. With that in mind, it comes down to Nickel Boys and Emilia Pérez. The former is clearly the more beloved picture in the industry, but continues to falter in this category; it missed ASC, but did score a BAFTA nod. Meanwhile, Fray's work feels like the kind of ambitious, compelling camerawork that this branch will celebrate (think El Conde, Bardo, Tár, The Lighthouse). Lot of options here, so nothing's set. But please, please, please, no Wicked

Other Possibilities

6. Paul Guilhaume- Emilia Pérez
7. Edward Lachman- Maria
8. Alice Brooks- Wicked
9. Phedon Papamichael- A Complete Unknown
10. Michał Dymek- The Girl with the Needle

1. Paul Tazewell- Wicked
2. Linda Muir- Nosferatu
3. Arianne Phillips- A Complete Unknown
4. Lisy Christl- Conclave
5. Janty Yates and Dave Crossman- Gladiator II

I'd wager that #1-#4 are pretty safe at this point, which leaves Gladiator II my lone wobble pick. While Ridley Scott films haven't hit too hard here lately, and his epic sequel has not proven to be the most beloved, I think the work on display here is just too big to pass up. The classic Roman empire garb, the bold colors, gold armor, sandals; it's just so flashy. Taking it means I'm leaving Dune: Part Two out, but I feel like that movie's gonna whiff in a lot of places, and there wasn't a big difference between the work from the first one. Lot of options here, though.

Other Possibilities

6. Jacqueline West- Dune: Part Two
7. Jacqueline Durran- Blitz
8. Emmanuelle Youchnovski- The Substance
9. Massimo Cantini Parrini- Maria
10. Colleen Atwood- Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

1. Nathan Crowley and Lee Sandales- Wicked
2. Judy Becker and Patricia Cuccia- The Brutalist
3. Craig Lathrop and Beatrice Brentnerova- Nosferatu
4. Suzie Davies and Cynthia Sleiter- Conclave
5. Patrice Vermette and Shane Vieau- Dune: Part Two

I hate to go with the BAFTA five, but this list feels pretty strong. Gladiator II could sneak in, maybe over Dune, but it just doesn't seem like it has much juice.

Other Possibilities

6. Arthur Max, Jille Azis, and Elli Griff- Gladiator II
7. François Audouy and Regina Graves- A Complete Unknown
8. Emmanuelle Duplay and Cécile Deleu- Emilia Pérez
9. Beth Mickle, Bradley Rubin and Lisa Sessions Morgan- Megalopolis
10. Guy Hendrix Dyas and Sandro Piccarozzi,Nóra Talmaier- Maria

1. Juliette Welfling- Emilia Pérez
2. Nick Emerson- Conclave
3. Joe Walker- Dune: Part Two
4. Dávid Jancsó- The Brutalist
5. Coralie Fargeat, Jérôme Eltabet and Valentin Feron- The Substance

Other Possibilities

6. Sean Baker- Anora
7. Andrew Buckland and Scott Morris- A Complete Unknown
8. Hansjörg Weißbrich- September 5
9. Marco Costa- Challengers
10. Julian Ulrichs and Chris Gill- Kneecaps

1. Dune: Part Two
2. Wicked
3. A Complete Unknown
4. Emilia Pérez
5. Gladiator II

Other Possibilities

6. Blitz
7. Deadpool & Wolverine
8. Joker: Folie a Deux
9. The Wild Robot
10. Alien: Romulus

1. The Substance
2. Wicked
3. Nosferatu
4. Emilia Pérez
5. A Different Man

Other Possibilities

6. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
7. Dune: Part Two
8. The Apprentice
9. Waltzing with Brando
10. Maria

1. Dune: Part Two
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
3. Wicked
4. Gladiator II
5. Civil War

Other Possibilities

6. Twisters
7. Better Man
8. Mufasa
9. Alien: Romulus
10. Deadpool & Wolverine