Predicting the Winners of the 2021 Oscars

And the Nominees are...

*The Father
*Judas and the Black Messiah
*Mank
*Minari
*Nomadland
*Promising Young Woman
*Sound of Metal
*The Trial of the Chicago 7

And the Oscar goes to...


It's probably going to be Nomadland. It's won all of the precursors, sans SAG, and, most importantly, there's no one spoiler. This is what shivved presumed frontrunners Roma and 1917. While the former was a bit shakier (it lost PGA and wasn't nominated at SAG), Green Book was the clear competition. Sam Mendes's war epic is a better comparison. It won all major precursors, except for SAG; just like Nomadland. The SAG winner last year, Parasite, eventually took the Oscar in a historic night. This year, The Trial of the Chicago 7 won the SAG. Some may see that as a sign of an impending upset, but I don't. While it's the most obvious competitor, Chicago 7 isn't the clear spoiler; Promising Young Woman or Minari have clear champions, with the latter scoring the more prominent nominations that lead to BP (it got directing and editing nods; Sorkin missed the director nod), and the former being the kind of sentimental player that could score.

Plus, the hype that surrounded Parasite's upset was deafening. It had been building throughout the season; Chicago 7 has just sorta been there. Parasite also had clear victories (it was winning screenplay and international film), 7 doesn't (maybe editing, but Sorkin's looking a bit wobbly for screenplay). Another factor hear is the pandemic. While in a regular year you can have backlash and shifting momentum, this year it's just sort of been a shrug; i.e. "Sure, Nomadland. That's fine." It's not getting the backlash, and no other film is getting the love it needs to overcome that. I can't rule out a surprise. Despite the paragraphs above, Chicago 7 does have a path to victory (if it wins editing and screenplay, then look out), but, again, I think voters are going to check off Nomadland, and look ahead to next year.

Power Rankings
1. Nomadland
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7
3. Promising Young Woman
4. Minari
5. Sound of Metal
6. Judas and the Black Messiah
7. The Father
8. Mank

And the Nominees are...


*Lee Isaac Chung- Minari
*Emerald Fennell- Promising Young Woman
*David Fincher- Mank
*Thomas Vinterberg- Another Round
*Chloé Zhao- Nomadland

And the Oscar goes to...


Even if Nomadland loses picture, it would be an all-time stunner if Zhao doesn't win this. While Sam Mendes won every major precursor last year, like Zhao has this year, there's no Bong Joon-Ho waiting in the wings. No other director has any real momentum here.

And the Nominees are...


*Viola Davis- Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
*Andra Day- The United States vs. Billie Holiday
*Vanessa Kirby- Pieces of a Woman
*Frances McDormand- Nomadland
*Carey Mulligan- Promising Young Woman

And the Oscar goes to...


I can already feel myself face-palming here, but I'm sticking with Mulligan. All of the major precursors have split this year; Critics' Choice went with Mulligan, Day surprised at the Globes, Davis took SAG, McDormand took BAFTA (i.e. Kirby's the only one out here). Despite glowing reviews, and the first surprise of a surprise season, I don't see Day pulling this one off. Billie Holiday has zero buzz, and couldn't even make the cut in any other categories (even gimme's like costumes or makeup). McDormand's BAFTA win is important, as they have a more accurate record here than even SAG (9/10 versus 8/10), but with the juried nominee format they went with this year, I just don't know if she won for being the best, or simply the best of what was left. Plus, though she's the lead in the BP favorite, that fact may hurt her chances here; she's a producer on that film, and would win another Oscar if it wins. In a close race like this, they may just want to spread the love.

That brings it to Davis and Mulligan. Davis won the SAG in somewhat of a shocker. Typically, that would make her the favorite here, but I'm not sure. Firstly, SAG just really loves Viola Davis; she's won five individual trophies, including three for film. I'm not discounting that as a strength, but I do think Oscar voters are a bit more leveled with their love. Secondly, SAG liked Ma Rainey much more than the Oscars did, giving Actor and Actress, and nominating it for ensemble; the Oscars snubbed in Picture and Screenplay, and it's momentum has seemed to stall. It scored five nominations, which is strong, and is likely to win to win three, excluding this one. That's another thing that gives me pause; I just don't see a non-BP nominee leading overall wins, winning the majority of it's nominations over more beloved films.

That's why I'm sticking with Mulligan. Promising Young Woman was never supposed to perform as well as it did, continuously scoring major nominations at every major voting body. Now, statistically, it's one of the strongest players for BP, and it's hard to see how that happens without Mulligan's central performance, such much so that it's been stunning just how little she's won for the film. BAFTA's juried voting system prevented her from a key nomination though, and I'm not exactly sure how she was left out (maybe she was too obvious, or the fact that she had two performances to choose from, Young Woman and The Dig, splitting support), but I do believe that she would've won had she been. Now, I think the British voting block that didn't get the chance to reward her there will come out to give her this one, along with voters other voters who've help propel Promising Young Woman into one of the most beloved films of the season.

Power Rankings
1. Mulligan
2. Davis
3. McDormand
4. Day
5. Kirby

And the Nominees are...


*Riz Ahmed- Sound of Metal
*Chadwick Boseman- Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
*Anthony Hopkins- The Father
*Gary Oldman- Mank
*Steven Yeun- Minari

And the Oscar goes to...


This race has certainly tightened. I still think that Boseman will take it. SAG, Globes, Critics' Choice; a strong triumvirate that rarely fails. Also, obviously, this is the only chance to reward a talent that was taken too soon, in a tremendous performance that caps his career. That doesn't make him a guarantee, however, as Anthony Hopkins took BAFTA, and is in a more beloved movie, and gives a performance that has been called the best in his illustrious career. Some voters may, to put it glibly, way this in a simple mantra; only chance versus last chance. I think Boseman's narrative is a bit stronger, as well as his love and respect within the Hollywood industry. It's close though (if ever there was a year for a tie, this would be it).

Power Rankings
1. Boseman
2. Hopkins
3. Ahmed
4. Yeun
5. Oldman

And the Nominees are...


*Maria Bakalova- Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
*Glenn Close- Hillbilly Elegy
*Olivia Colman- The Father
*Amanda Seyfried- Mank
*Yuh-jung Youn- Minari

And the Oscar goes to...


After this category looked a bit frenzied earlier in the season, Youn's wins at SAG and BAFTA have moved her to the front of the pack. She's given well-received speeches, and her film appears to be the most beloved. I wouldn't rule out Close, as I think a few people just want to give her the Oscar and be done with it, or maybe even Bakalova, who had enough love to make it in for a broad comedy.

Power Rankings
1. Youn
2. Close
3. Bakalova
4. Colman
5. Seyfried

And the Nominees are...


*Sacha Baron Cohen- The Trial of the Chicago 7
*Daniel Kaluuya- Judas and the Black Messiah
*Leslie Odom Jr.- One Night in Miami
*Paul Raci- Sound of Metal
*LaKeith Stanfield- Judas and the Black Messiah

And the Oscar goes to...


Kaluuya's taken every precursor prize, and Judas has proven to be a very strong player. The only concern for him is his costar. While vote splitting is likely not a major concern here, we haven't seen these two go head to head this season, so it isn't out of the realm of plausibility that Baron Cohen could sneak in thanks to the lead/supporting conundrum caused by the Judas costars. It's, again, unlikely that this will happen; Kaluuya is the heavy favourite.

Power Rankings
1. Kaluuya
2. Baron Cohen
3. Raci
4. Odom Jr.
5. Stanfield

And the Nominees are...


*Judas and the Black Messiah- Will Berson and Shaka King, Keith Lucas & Kenny Lucas
*Minari- Lee Isaac Chung
*Promising Young Woman- Emerald Fennell
*Sound of Metal- Abraham Marder & Darius Marder and Derek Cianfrance
*The Trial of the Chicago 7- Aaron Sorkin

And the Oscar goes to...


While I think Sorkin has a strong shot here (if 7 takes editing, it could signal a BP swing and take screenplay, too), Fennell took BAFTA and WGA, a fairly lethal combination. This category, also, likes to reward the "original" of the category's title, and Promising Young Woman is the category's most singular in construction (Sorkin's is, obviously, the more singular in terms of dialogue). It's close, but I think Fennell's taking it.

Power Rankings
1. Promising Young Woman
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7
3. Minari
4. Sound of Metal
5. Judas and the Black Messiah

And the Nominees are...


*Borat Subsequent Moviefilm- Sacha Baron Cohen, Peter Baynham, Jena Friedman, Anthony Hines, Lee Kern, Dan Mazer, Erica Rivinoja & Dan Swimer and Nina Pedrad
*The Father- Christopher Hampton & Florian Zeller
*Nomandland- Chloé Zhao
*One Night in Miami- Kemp Powers
*The White Tiger- Ramin Bahrani

And the Oscar goes to...


It's likely down to The Father and Nomadland, and I'm giving the tip to the former. Zhao's script took the Critics' Choice, but the Critics have a pretty mixed track record here (since 2009, they only correctly predicted this category four times), while it and The Father were both ineligible at WGA, where Borat took it. BAFTA is, too, rather mixed here (they've only picked five in the same time as the critics), but it does give it some momentum here. It's also one of the presumed Nomadland wins that feels wobbly, largely due to the film's near-documentary filmmaking (also why I don't quite see Borat spoiling). Hampton and Zeller's script, by contrast, is meticulously designed; a true writer's picture. That's why I see it prevailing.

Power Rankings
1. The Father
2. Nomadland
3. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
4. One Night in Miami
5. The White Tiger

And the Nominees are...


*Onward
*Over the Moon
*A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
*Soul
*Wolfwalkers

And the Oscar goes to...


Soul's won all of the precursors, has the most nominations and was the only one here even remotely in the Best Picture conversation. If Wolfwalkers, the biggest potential spoiler here, couldn't even squeak out a BAFTA win (Soul won there, too), I doubt the broader Oscar voters will shun the most widely beloved film here.

Power Rankings
1. Soul
2. Wolfwalkers
3. Onward
4. Over the Moon
5. A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon

And the Nominees are...


*Collective
*Crip Camp
*The Mole Agent
*My Octopus Teacher
*Time

And the Oscar goes to...


This category typically goes it's own way, but My Octopus Teacher has some solid support. Winning both the BAFTA and PGA trophies, and scoring a nomination at DGA (the winner there, The Truffle Hunters, missed the Oscar cut), it seems like the safest bet of the bunch. I wouldn't rule out Time or Collective though.

Power Rankings
1. My Octopus Teacher
2. Time
3. Collective
4. Crip Camp
5. The Mole Agent

And the Nominees are...


*Another Round
*Better Days
*Collective
*The Man Who Sold His Skin
*Quo Vadis, Aida?

And the Oscar goes to...


Considering it's the only film here to show up in any major category, this looks like Another Round's to lose.

And the Nominees are...


*Da 5 Bloods- Terence Blanchard
*Mank- Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross
*Minari- Emile Mosseri
*News of the World- James Newton Howard
*Soul- Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross and Jon Batiste

And the Oscar goes to...


Soul is a lock here. It's won everything else and there's no consensus spoiler. Plus, it's just the best of the bunch.

And the nominees are...


* "Fight for You" from Judas and the Black Messiah- Music & Lyrics by H.E.R.; Music by D'Mile; Lyrics by Tiara Thomas
* "Hear My Voice" from The Trial of the Chicago 7- Music & Lyrics by Celeste; Music by Daniel Pemberton
* "Husavik" from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga- Music & Lyrics by Rickard Göransson, Fat Max Gsus & Savan Kotecha
* "Io sì (Seen)" from The Life Ahead- Music & Lyrics by Diane Warren; Lyrics by Laura Pausini
* "Speak Now" from One Night in Miami- Music & Lyrics by Sam Ashworth and Leslie Odom Jr.

And the Oscar goes to...


You know what? I'm taking one from the heart, and going with "Husavik". "Speak Now" and "Io sì (Seen)" have the stronger narratives. The former is in a more well-liked film, with an acting nominee (Leslie Odom Jr.) as the singer and songwriter; if we're not gonna give him supporting actor, why not song? The latter comes from Diane Warren, on her 12th nomination. She wants it, the Academy wants to give it to her, why not let her have it in a wobbly year like this? Either could take it, and it wouldn't surprise me, but listen to the nominees here. Only one has any actual staying power; "Husavik". The stupidity of the film itself could hinder it's chances, but I think that voters are going to go nuts here, and reward the most clearly deserving song.

Power Rankings
1. "Husavik"
2. "Speak Now"
3. "Io sì (Seen)"
4. "Fight for You"
5. "Hear My Voice"

And the Nominees are...


*Sean Bobbit- Judas and the Black Messiah
*Erik Messerschmidt- Mank
*Phedon Papamichael- The Trial of the Chicago 7
*Joshua James Richards- Nomadland
*Dariusz Wolski- News of the World

And the Oscar goes to...


Messerschmidt took the ASC, a very strong precursor, but that guild often goes for the cinematography with the most visible work, were as the Oscars, and other awards, usually go for the most visually striking. That's why Nomadland will probably win. Outside of ASC, it's taken all of the other major precursors, including BAFTA, and Richards' work is likely seen as the most influential to his film, the presumptive BP favorite.

Power Rankings
1. Nomadland
2. Mank
3. News of the World
4. The Trial of the Chicago 7
5. Judas and the Black Messiah

And the Nominees are...


*The Father- Peter Francis and Cathy Featherstone
*Ma Rainey's Black Bottom- Mark Ricker and Karen O'Hara & Diana Stoughton
*Mank- Donald Graham Burt and Jan Pascale
*News of the World- David Crank and Elizabeth Keenan
*Tenet- Nathan Crowley and Kathy Lucas

And the Oscar goes to...


Not a lock, but this looks likely to be Mank's only win of the night. It's taken all of the precursors, and 1930s Hollywood is more enticing to voters than the old west or 1920s Chicago.

Power Rankings
1. Mank
2. News of the World
3. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
4. The Father
5. Tenet

And the Nominees are...


*Alexandra Byrne- Emma.
*Bina Daigeler- Mulan
*Massimo Cantini Parrini- Pinocchio
*Ann Roth- Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
*Trish Summerville- Mank

And the Oscar goes to...


Roth's taken every costumes award thus far (CDG, BAFTA, Critics Choice), so she's in the driver's seat here. I wouldn't rule out Emma.'s 1810s, pastel-tinged work sneaking in, though the fact that it couldn't win at BAFTA makes it an unlikely surprise. Mank, too, has potential.

Power Rankings
1. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2. Emma.
3. Mank
4. Mulan
5. Pinocchio

And the Nominees are...

*Alan Baumgarten- The Trial of the Chicago 7
*Yorgos Lamprinos- The Father
*Mikkel E.G. Nielsen- Sound of Metal
*Frédéric Thoraval- Promising Young Woman
*Chloé Zhao- Nomadland

And the Oscar goes to...


This is a close one. They split the Critics' Choice Awards, Sound of Metal took BAFTA, and Chicago 7 took the Editors' Guild. 7 has was a semi-favorite all season, before Metal gained steam, then took back the momentum after the ACE award win. It could easily take it, but I think Sound of Metal wins. The reason; this category and Sound often go for the same film (since 2013, a sound winner, either Editing or Mixing, has won Film Editing). Sound of Metal is winning sound. That's it.

Power Rankings
1. Sound of Metal
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7
3. Nomadland
4. The Father
5. Promising Young Woman

And the Nominees are...

*Greyhound- Beau Borders, Michael Minkler, Warren Shaw and David Wyman
*Mank- Ren Klyce, Drew Kunin, Jeremy Molod, Nathan Nance and David Parker
*News of the World- Oliver Tarney, William Miller, John Pritchett and Mike Prestwood Smith
*Soul- Ren Klyce, Coya Elliot and David Parker
*Sound of Metal- Nicolas Becker, Jaime Baksht, Michelle Couttolenc, Carlos Cortés and Phillip Bladh

And the Oscar goes to...


This is Sound of Metal in a walk. Probably the biggest lock of the night.

And the Nominees are...


*Emma.- Marese Langan, Laura Allen and Claudia Stolze
*Hillbilly Elegy- Eryn Krueger Mekash, Matthew W. Mungle and Patricia Dehaney
*Ma Rainey's Black Bottom- Sergio Lopez-Rivera, Mia Neal and Jamika Wilson
*Mank- Gigi Williams, Kimberley Spiteri and Colleen LaBaff
*Pinocchio- Mark Coulier, Dalia Coli and Francesco Pegoretti

And the Oscar goes to...


Ma Rainey's won all of the major precursors leading up to this, and it checks the "famous person playing historical figure" box, so it should be fine. The only possible competition here are Hillbilly Elegy or, the wildest of wild cards, the nightmare fuel of Pinocchio.

Power Rankings
1. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2. Hillbilly Elegy
3. Pinocchio
4. Mank
5. Emma.

And the Nominees are...


*Love and Monsters- Matt Sloan, Genevieve Camilleri, Matt Everitt and Brian Cox
*The Midnight Sky- Matthew Kasmir, Christopher Lawrence, Max Solomon and David Watkins
*Mulan- Sean Faden, Anders Langlands, Seth Maury and Steven Ingram
*The One and Only Ivan- Nick Davis, Greg Fisher, Ben Jones and Santiago Colomo Martinez
*Tenet- Andrew Jackson, David Lee, Andrew Lockley and Scott R. Fisher

And the Oscar goes to...


This one looks to be a race between The Midnight Sky and Tenet. Sky won big with the Visual Effects Society, while Tenet took BAFTA. While VES is a big prize, BAFTA has a better record here (they've only missed four times in the past 20 years). That said, Nolan and Warner Bros. botched a lot of Tenet's rollout, both theatrically and for awards season (they didn't upload the film on the Academy's streaming portal until very late).

Power Rankings
1. Tenet
2. The Midnight Sky
3. Mulan
4. The One and Only Ivan
5. Love and Monsters