Predicting the Winners of the 2023 Oscars

And the Nominees are...

*All Quiet on the Western Front
*Avatar: The Way of Water
*The Banshees of Inisherin
*Elvis
*Everything Everywhere All at Once
*The Fabelmans
*Tár
*The Top Gun: Maverick
*Triangle of Sadness
*Women Talking

And the Oscar goes to...


EEAAO has won every major guild but, more importantly, no usurper has really emerged. All Quiet won big at the BAFTAs, but it missed key director/editing noms and major guilds nods, too (DGA, PGA, SAG). CODA it ain't. If Top Gun had won PGA, it'd have a shot, but it didn't. If Banshees couldn't even win at the BAFTAs, it can't win this. Fabelmans has the Globe win and Spielberg love, but it hasn't won anything else (it may go 0/7). This one, surprisingly, seems like the lock of the night.

Power Rankings
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once
2. All Quiet on the Western Front
3. Top Gun: Maverick
4. The Banshees of Inisherin
5. The Fabelmans
6. Tár
7. Elvis
8. Avatar: The Way of Water
9. Triangle of Sadness
10. Women Talking

And the Nominees are...


*The Banshees of Inisherin- Martin McDonagh
*Everything Everywhere All at Once- Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert
*The Fabelmans- Steven Spielberg
*Tár- Todd Field
*Triangle of Sadness- Ruben Östlund

And the Oscar goes to...


The Daniels took the DGA prize, as well as Critics' Choice, and their film is winning Best Picture. Spielberg's the only plausible spoiler, winning the Globe as well as being Steven fucking Spielberg, but The Fabelmans faded fast in most races. Another for the A24 hit.

Power Rankings
1. Kwan & Scheinert
2. Spielberg
3. Field
4. McDonagh
5. Östlund

And the nominees are...


*Cate Blanchett- Tár
*Ana de Armas- Blonde
*Andrea Riseborough- To Leslie
*Michelle Williams- The Fabelmans
*Michelle Yeoh- Everything Everywhere All at Once

And the Oscar goes to...


This is an incredibly close race. Blanchett and Yeoh have split every race thus far, including Blanchett winning at BAFTA and Yeoh winning at SAG. Yeoh seems to have the momentum, and EEAAO is going to do very well this year, but historically, BAFTA is the major correlation here. In the past 20 years, there have been nine times where BAFTA and SAG have split (discounting 2003, when Monster didn't get a release in Britain until the following year, and last year, where didn't have a nominee that scored an Oscar nomination). Of those, the BAFTA winner won six times, including three out of the last two out of the last four years. Now, EEAAO has a lot more love than The Help, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom or The Wife, but Tár is pretty well-liked too. It's so damn close, and we could see a tie, but I think Blancett pulls this one out, to the chagrin of many narrative lovers.

Power Rankings
1. Blanchett
2. Yeoh
3. Williams
4. Riseborough
5. de Armas

And the nominees are...


*Austin Butler- Elvis
*Colin Farrell- The Banshees of Inisherin
*Brendan Fraser- The Whale
*Paul Mescal- Aftersun
*Bill Nighy- Living

And the Oscar goes to...


Another incredibly close acting race. I threw up my hands here and took Butler. Both he and Fraser have real momentum, splitting every precursor thus for; Butler won the Golden Globe and the BAFTA award, while Fraser took Critics' Choice and SAG. Since 2000, when BAFTA essentially moved to broader its voting based, they matched up with the Oscars 15 of 21 times (including every winner since 2014); SAG has matched up 22 out of 29 times, but missed a few big ones in 2016 (Washington over Affleck) and 2020 (Boseman over Hopkins).

In the end, I went the moneyball route. SAG was likely close, and I'd wager that Butler did quite well, but if BAFTA was close it was probably between Butler and Farrell. In short, I think Butler's got more broad appeal. Elvis, too, is the more beloved film, nominated for eight including Best Picture, where as The Whale couldn't even score a fairly easy Adapted Screenplay nod. Fraser's still got emotion behind his bid, he's a sentimental pick for sure (I also don't like that there seems to be a consensus forming around Butler; feels too easy, especially considering SAG is the more predictive race), but when in doubt, go with the biopic. Farrell could sneak in if those two split though, which would be one of the biggest and best surprises of the night.

Power Rankings
1. Butler
2. Fraser
3. Farrell
4. Nighy
5. Mescal

And the nominees are...


*Angela Bassett- Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
*Hong Chau- The Whale
*Kerry Condon- The Banshees of Inisherin
*Jamie Lee Curtis- Everything Everywhere All at Once
*Stephanie Hsu- Everything Everywhere All at Once

And the Oscar goes to...


This is, maybe, the toughest acting category to crack. With actor and actress, it's down to about two contenders (three in actor, if you're being generous). Here, three women have major precursors; Bassett took the Critics' Choice and the Globe, Condon won the BAFTA and Curtis took a surprise SAG award. At the top, I think I'll take Bassett out here. Many thought she was the easy favorite going in; a career win for a beloved actress. While she is great, and she is good in Wakanda Forever, I've just never bought the idea that the voters are going to give an acting award to a Marvel movie. The studio's a monolith in modern cinema, but it's not exactly beloved by the industry. She could still win, but I just don't buy it.

I see this coming down to Condon and Curtis, and my gut is saying Condon. Curtis won a very important SAG award, but that feels, to me, like actors awarding a beloved actor. She campaigned hard with the actors branch, and it paid off hard for her and the film (EEAAO is the winningest film in SAG history). It's just hard to buy this as an Oscar winning performance though. It's great work, but I think Condon's going to be seen as having the more substantive performance. Plus, like actor, I think SAG was probably close, whereas BAFTA probably went overwhelmingly for Condon. It's, also, likely the only place for Banshees to be awarded.

Power Rankings
1. Condon
2. Curtis
3. Bassett
4. Hsu
5. Chau

And the nominees are...


*Brendan Gleeson- The Banshees of Inisherin
*Brian Tyree Henry- Causeway
*Judd Hirsch- The Fabelmans
*Barry Keoghan- The Banshees of Inisherin
*Ke Huy Quan- Everything Everywhere All at Once

And the Oscar goes to...


Outside of BAFTA, which went aggressively European this year, Quan has won everything he needs to to be considered the overwhelming favorite here. The film, the narrative, the performance; it just feels like too strong a triumvirate not to award.

Power Rankings
1. Quan
2. Keoghan
3. Gleeson
4. Hirsch
5. Henry

And the Nominees are...


*The Banshees of Inisherin- Martin McDonagh
*Everything Everywhere All at Once- Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert
*The Fabelmans- Steven Spielberg & Tony Kushner
*Tár- Todd Field
*Triangle of Sadness- Ruben Östlund

And the Oscar goes to...


This one is coming down to Banshees and EEAAO. The former won the Globe and BAFTA, while the latter won the Critics' Choice award and WGA (where McDonagh was ineligible). It's close, and they may what to give McDonagh something, but EEAAO just has all the momentum right now, and is almost assuredly winning Best Picture; winning a screenplay award is typically a bellwether for the top prize.

Power Rankings
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once
2. The Banshees of Inisherin
3. The Fabelmans
4. Tár
5. Triangle of Sadness

And the Nominees are...


*All Quiet on the Western Front- Edward Berger, Lesley Patterson and Ian Stokell
*Glass Onion- Rian Johnson
*Living- Kazuo Ishiguro
*Top Gun: Maverick- Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer and Christopher McQuarrie; Peter Craig and Justin Marks
*Women Talking- Sarah Polley

And the Oscar goes to...


Yet another race where I had to, finally, pick one, without much confidence. All Quiet is the bigger BP contender here, which usually translates to a win here (especially in a thin field such as this), but I have a few hangups with it. First, second or later adaptations just do not win this category, handicapping beloved versions of Hamlet (1996), Little Women (both the 1994 and 2019 versions were nominated and did not win), A Star Is Born (2018). A few remakes have won here, including last year's CODA, but they were English-language adaptations, not the other way around. The film is, also, not considered by many to be a writer's picture, with it's big, bold battles looked at as more of director Edward Berger's accomplishments (having said that, he's nominated here and not in director, so this may be seen as the place to honor it).

Women Talking doesn't have that issue. This is a very talky screenplay, hitting some important topics at a quick pace. It, also, has the more singular adaptation, something that is a necessity to win. It's got the precursors, Critics' Choice, WGA and USC Scripters, and this could be the place to honor Polley, who many see as being maligned this awards season. It's a very close race, but the wordiness of Polley's screenplay has me taking it.

Power Rankings
1. Women Talking
2. All Quiet on the Western Front
3. Top Gun: Maverick
4. Living
5. Glass Onion

And the Nominees are...

*Marcell the Shell with Shoes On
*Pinocchio
*Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
*The Sea Beast
*Turning Red

And the Oscar goes to...


If GDT didn't put his name on his Pinocchio, I think Puss in Boots's success would sway enough voters to take a chance on Frisky Two Times. But he did, and the film has won every major precursor leading up to this. It's del Toro's to lose.

Power Rankings
1. Pinocchio
2. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
3. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
4. Turning Red
5. The Sea Beast

And the Nominees are...

*All Quiet on the Western Front
*Argentina, 1985
*Close
*EO
*The Quiet Girl

And the Oscar goes to...


Seems like it's safely All Quiet. It's got nine nomination, and has won enough awards leading up to it. I don't see a clear usurper.

And the Nominees are...

*All That Breathes
*All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
*Fire of Love
*A House Made of Splinters
*Navalny

And the Oscar goes to...


This is often an award easily swayed by outside motives. Quality is important, but the narrative can often outweigh that. With that in mind, I'll take Navalny. Fire of Love took the DGA award, but Navalny took the BAFTA and PGA top prizes, a fairly lethal combination here (four times has it happened since BAFTA re-established the category in 2012; all have won the Oscar). Plus, many voters would take the chance to vote for to send a message to Putin, i.e. fuck you dude.

Power Rankings
1. Navalny
2. Fire of Love
3. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
4. All that Breathes
5. A House Made of Splinters

Power Rankings

And the Nominees are...


*Volker Bertelmann- All Quiet on the Western Front
*Carter Burwell- The Banshees of Inisherin
*Justin Hurwitz- Babylon
*Son Lux- Everything Everywhere All at Once
*John Williams- The Fabelmans

And the Oscar goes to...


It could really go to anyone this year, but conventional wisdom says it comes down to Bertelmann and Hurwitz. While Babylon's score is a banger, one they've used to promote the awards ceremony this year, All Quiet won the BAFTA award, and is part of a major BP contender. Only twice since 2000 has a film not nominated for Best Picture won this award, with the last time being 2016 with Ennio Morricone's work on The Hateful Eight (which was seen as a career award as much as it was for the film). This could be a category ripe for a surprise, with EEAAO a solid spoiler, and John Williams right around the corner for what may be his last collaboration with Spielberg (he's gone back on the claim, but you never know). I'm leaning towards All Quiet, but don't be surprise to see anything win here.


Power Rankings
1. All Quiet on the Western Front
2. Babylon
3. Everything Everywhere All at Once
4. The Fabelmans
5. The Banshees of Inisherin

And the nominees are...



* "Applause" from Tell It Like a Woman- Music & Lyrics by Diane Warren
* "Hold My Hand" from Top Gun: Maverick- Music & Lyrics by Lady Gaga & BloodPop
* "Lift Me Up" from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever- Music & Lyrics by Ryan Coogler and Tems; Music by Ludwig Göransson and Rihanna
* "Naatu Naatu" from RRR- Lyrics by Chandrabose; Music by M.M. Keeravani
* "This Is a Life" from Everything Everywhere Alll at Once- Music & Lyrics by David Byrne and Son Lux; Music by Mitski


And the Oscar goes to...


"Naatu Naatu"'s pulled out all the stops with promotion and visibility, and it may just pay off. It's, arguably, the most integral song in it's film, and certainly has the most memorable moment, and I think it'll pay off. Barely. It can't be overlooked that there are songs from two BP nominees here, and a emotional ballad about a fallen star in a film with five nominations. RRR, as beloved as it is, could only score one nomination. If I had to guess, I'd say Maverick's ballad is the closest usurper, with "Lift Me Up" right behind it. Could be a close one.

Power Rankings
1. "Naatu Naatu"
2. "Hold My Hand"
3. "Lift Me Up"
4. "This Is a Life"
5. "Applause"

And the Nominees are...


*Roger Deakins- Empire of Light
*James Friend- All Quiet on the Western Front
*Florian Hoffmeister- Tár
*Darius Khondji- Bardo: False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths
*Mandy Walker- Elvis

And the Oscar goes to...


Walker won ASC, and would become the first woman to ever win here. That's a strong narrative, and Elvis appears to be very well-liked. All Quiet won the BAFTA, in a near-sweep for the film there. It's close between them, and both have stats in their favor. Only twice has a film won the Oscar without and ASC nomination (1989's Glory and 2006's Pan's Labyrinth), which is a mark against All Quiet. With that said, ASC is Walker's only victory this season, and her work was rarely the center of Elvis's praise. When there's little consensus on the American side, look to the British side; Friend won BAFTA and the British Cinematographer's Society award, and the film won seven BAFTAs. While it's highly unlikely to repeat that at the Oscars, it would be very surprising if it could eek out at least one win here. It's a big, bold war film that mixes practical achievements with VFX ones; I think it's got the heat.

Power Rankings
1. All Quiet on the Western Front
2. Elvis
3. Tár
4. Empire of Light
5. Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths

And the nominees are...


*Jenny Beavan- Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
*Ruth Carter- Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
*Shirley Kurata- Everything Everywhere All at Once
*Catherine Martin- Elvis
*Mary Zophres- Babylon

And the Oscar goes to...


EEAAO could surprise here (it won a CDG award, and it's beloved), but this feels like Elvis's likeliest win. Martin's won twice here before, and her work is the kind of flashy that wins this category more often than not (she's won all of the major precursors, too).

Power Rankings
1. Elvis
2. Everything Everywhere All at Once
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
4. Babylon
5. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

And the Nominees are...


*All Quiet on the Western Front- Christian M. Goldbeck and Ernestine Hipper
*Avatar: The Way of Water- Dylan Cole and Ben Proctor and Vanessa Cole
*Babylon- Florencia Martin and Anthony Carlino
*Elvis- Catherine Martin and Karen Murphy and Bev Dunn
*The Fabelmans- Rick Carter and Karen O'Hara

And the Oscar goes to…


This one could go a few ways. All Quiet has the ugliness of trench warfare, Elvis has the gaudiness of Elvis's life, and Babylon revels in the decadence of old Hollywood. While the first two are BP contenders with a lot of passion, Babylon has won all of the major precursors (including ADG and BAFTA) and old Hollywood is like catnip to voters. Also, it's incredible stuff. Could be one of the BP contenders, but I think this is Babylon's likeliest win.

Power Rankings
1. Babylon
2. All Quiet on the Western Front
3. Elvis
4. The Fabelmans
5. Avatar: The Way of Water

And the Nominees are...


*The Banshees of Inisherin- Mikkel E.G. Nielsen
*Elvis- Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond
*Everything Everywhere All at Once- Paul Rogers
*Tár- Monika Willi
*Top Gun: Maverick- Eddie Hamilton

And the Oscar goes to...


Rogers is most likely winning this. Top Gun is a very strong contender (it won the ACE award for drama editing), but it lost every head-to-head category it had to face EEAAO. Even the BAFTAs went for the A24 favorite, a group that did not warm to the film otherwise (it was it's only win). Another EEAAO win.

Power Rankings
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once
2. Top Gun: Maverick
3. Elvis
4. Tár
5. The Banshees of Inisherin

And the Nominees are...

*All Quiet on the Western Front- Viktor Prášil, Frank Kruse, Markus Stemler, Lars Ginzel and Stefan Korte
*Avatar: The Way of Water- Julian Howarth, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Dick Bernstein, Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers, and Michael Hedges
*The Batman- Stuart Wilson, Will Files, Douglas Murray and Andy Nelson
*Elvis- David Lee, Wayne Pashley, Andy Nelson and Michael Keller
*Top Gun: Maverick- Mark Weingarten, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor

And the Oscar goes to...


All Quiet won the BAFTA award, which is a very strong precursor (only five times since 2000 has a BAFTA winner not won a sound Oscar), but they went hard for European productions, All Quiet (it won seven, including Best Film) especially. Top Gun has won the major American guilds (CAS and MPSE, or the sound mixers and sound editors guilds), and this is likely the only place to honor the film. Probably Maverick's only win.

Power Rankings
1. Top Gun: Maverick
2. All Quiet on the Western Front
3. Avatar: The Way of Water
4. Elvis
5. The Batman

And the Nominees are...


*All Quiet on the Western Front- Heike Merker and Linda Eisenhamerová
*The Batman- Naomi Donne, Mike Marino, and Mike Fontaine
*Black Panther: Wakanda Forever- Camille Friend and Joel Harlow
*Elvis- Mark Coulier, Jason Baird and Aldo Signoretti
*The Whale- Adrien Morot, Judy Chin and Anne Marie Bradley

And the Oscar goes to...


Elvis seems to be the consensus, and it would be in line with most winners here; big, flashy, biopic. In fact, the last five winners of this category were all mimicking real subjects. It's a winning ticket. So why am I taking The Whale? Elvis's makeup is solid throughout, but the big prosthetic feat is mainly Colonel Tom Parker, not The King (his work takes a small amount of time late in the film). To me, it comes down to fat suit vs. fat suit, and that gives The Whale the edge. I think it'll be seen as being more integral to the success of the story, and it's lead's performance. A few other points that I think will work in it's favor; they had much less money than the Elvis team (in races with no clear runaway and/or big versus small budgets, the smaller film wins more often than not), and it won the award for Best Special Effects makeup with the Makeup and Hairstylists Guild (a solid harbinger for Oscar). What this means for actor...? Who the hell knows.

Power Rankings
1. The Whale
2. Elvis
3. The Batman
4. All Quiet on the Western Front
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

And the Nominees are...


*All Quiet on the Western Front- Frank Petzold, Viktor Müller, Markus Frank and Kamil Jafar
*Avatar: The Way of Water- Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett
*The Batman- Dan Lemmon, Russell Earl, Anders Langlands and Dominic Tuohy
*Black Panther: Wakanda Forever- Geoffrey Baumann, Craig Hammack, R. Christopher White and Dan Sudick
*Top Gun: Maverick- Ryan Tudhope, Seth Hill, Bryan Litson and Scott R. Fisher

And the Oscar goes to...


It's Avatar. It would be a historic upset if anything else won here.