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Best Picture
235
7.9
8
The Irishman (2019)
1.
Appears to have the broadest base of support; i.e. it's become the favorite.2.
It's in.3.
After that SAG ensemble nod, this one clearly has a lot of appeal. This could be a very interesting contender if it wins a few major awards.4.
After those big Globe wins, it could very well start a run to a victory.5.
It's not winning, but it's a guaranteed nominee.6.
Scored nominations everywhere it needs to to be considered a lock.7.
Consistently performed strongly across all major guilds; not quite a lock, it's still a comic book movie with somewhat mixed reviews, but it's looking very firm here.8.
Under-performed so far, but the film is doing quite well at the box office, and generated a fair amount of conversation; it's breaking at just the right time. Could get a big snub (especially considering how rapturous the response to the film has been), but I'm optimistic. 9.
Pretty much the same thing that I said the last time; well-received, old-fashioned entertainment that's done strongly across guilds. This could just be an eight-picture field (or even a seven), but I suspect this will be the ninth if it goes that long, as it predominately has since 2011 (2011, 2012, 2013, 2016, 2017). Other Possibilities
10.
I'll be honest; I was very tempted to put this in the ninth spot. It scored a big PGA nomination, along with the Globe nods, and several key guild marks. It's a box office hit, with a lot of broad support; it's a film that could easily be seen on several ballots (it's a film that's easy to like). That said, between this a Ford v Ferrari, the former is, historically, the kind of Oscar fare that voters drool over. It's you dad's favorite movie, and there are a lot of dads in the Academy. It's a sleeper though, and I could see it sneaking in (I'm personally hoping that it does). 11.
SAG went wild for the film, nominating it's cast, and three leads individually. With support from the actors' branch, the largest voting block in the Academy, Bombshell could be a major party crasher. It's been a bust pretty much everywhere else, though; less-than-stellar reviews and box office, as well as little cultural footprint. I could see it in, but it doesn't seem to have much heat.12.
It did well at the Globes, but it's had a hard time gaining traction anywhere else. While I'm sure that older-skewering voters enjoy it, I don't see enough broad support for it. 13.
It's had a disappointing awards run thus far (despite Awkwafina's Globe win), but there's typically one movie that hasn't played well at the guilds (Phantom Thread, Philomena, Room, Selma, among others) that sneaks in thanks to a passionate voter base. Granted, those films have usually been top prize nominated at other awards (it's been relegated to Best Foreign Language Film categories, where it's ineligible at the Oscars). Unlikely, but not impossible.14.
A hail mary toss, but not outside the realm of possibility.
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Best Director
411
7.2
7.8
1.
#1-4 are complete locks. These numbers are only based on likelihood of nods; even if things get wonky here, Scorsese's not missing out. 2.
While I'm not certain that that Globe win foreshadows a big Oscar run, it'd be a stunner if he misses the cut (I'd don't see him getting Affleck'd).3.
Parasite's stature just keeps rising this season, and I think Joon-ho is a real threat here. 4.
His smugness at the Golden Globes might hinder his chances at a win, but voting ended just two days later, and Hollywood is looking like the one to beat this season. He's in.5.
The fifth spot is a tricky one. Assuming that the four men above are locks, and I would be genuinely stunned if one of the missed the cut, history tells us that it may be something of a surprise. Joon-ho, Mendes, Scorses and Tarantino each score BAFTA, DGA and Golden Globe nominations; for the fifth spot, both BAFTA and the Globes went with Todd Phillips, while DGA went with Taika Waititi. The smart money is on one of these two men, particularly Waititi, as the Directors' Guild is more industry based. With that in mind, however, none of these three awards' bodies have a great record with matching the Oscars five-for-five. In the 20 years that BAFTA has gone with five nominees, only once have they aligned (2000); DGA's done it eight times, but three of those were in expanded fields, and the last time was a decade ago (when the voting body wasn't as diverse and varied as it is today); the Golden Globes have thrice, but one of those years (1983) had six nominees, and that year's winner (Barbara Streisand for Yentl wasn't even nominated; by the way, all these correlating years were in the 1980s). While either Phillips or Waititi could make it (or both), I expect to see someone else. Gerwig is the name that jumps to the top of the remaining contenders; Little Women has some momentum right now, after a PGA nod, as well as a solid BAFTA showing (and, helpfully, strong box office), and she is, likely, the only potential female nominee, something that the growing voting base is likely, and hopefully, closely considering. Don't be surprised to see her miss though; there are a lot of contenders for the last spot, as the director's branch has gone for some truly shocking contenders in the past few years, several of which (Lenny Abrahamson for Room, Paul Thomas Anderson for Phantom Thread, Terrence Malick for The Tree of Life, Bennett Miller for Foxcatcher, Benh Zeitlin for Beasts of the Southern Wild) earned no major precursor love. This could be a wild one.Other Possibilities
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Best Actor
490
7.8
8.6
Joker (2019)
1.
The Globe win boosts his momentum, though that Hollywood-chiding speech may prove troublesome for a few voters. That said, he was the favorite before, and he's the favorite now.2.
Still in the hunt for a win. Don't be that surprised if he can upset at SAG, on a road to win this thing. 3.
While I'm still hesitant to call him a lock (again, there is typically one major snub), he's been nominated everywhere, and his film is growing into the BP favorite. Probably in.4.
After a Globe win and BAFTA/SAG nominations, Egerton appears to be in this thing. While I don't think he'll follow the same route as Rami Malek did last year (Rocketman was more acclaimed, but doesn't have nearly the same impact as Bohemian Rhapsody did), it's looking like he's got the support to earn his first nomination.5.
The four men listed above each score BAFTA and SAG nominations; historically, neither of those groups align 100% with Oscar (in it's 25 years, SAG's only gone five-for-five six times; since extending to 5 nominees in 1999, BAFTA's only matched thrice). Christian Bale got the SAG tip, while Jonathan Pryce got the BAFTA. Both, also, scored Globe nods, so they've got international appeal. There are a lot of contenders for this fifth spot, following my no-100% correlation theory. Outside of Bale and Pryce, De Niro's got a beloved film, but he's been snubbed, virtually, everywhere and Murphy needed that Globe win to power that comeback narrative, but Egerton took it, so I don't think he's coming back. Adam Sandler, might still have a shot, as actors have jumped in here despite missing everywhere else (outside of his Critics' Choice nod, and the NBR win) and his film is playing rather well at the box office. That said, he just doesn't seem to have that much momentum, and stigma surrounding his comedy likely, still, will hinder many voters. With all of this in play, Banderas seems like the natural choice; he's scored other big nods (Critics' Choice, Golden Globe, a win at Cannes), he's overdue, and a more international voting pool should champion the only, truly, non-English speaking role. Bale and/or Pryce could still take it, but my gut says Banderas gets his first nomination.Other Possibilities
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Best Actress
32
6.5
6.7
Bombshell (2019)
1.
Probable winner.2.
Lock that could make a run at the prize.3.
Another lock.4.
After the top three, the last two spots are extremely tight. Awkwafina, Cynthia Erivo, Lupita Nyong'o and Saoirse Ronan all have major claims to the nomination. Awkwafina won a Golden Globe, and is a likable talent on the rise; Erivo score a Globe and, more importantly, a SAG nomination, she's playing a historical hero, and is also having a breakout moment (she's, also, a fairly safe bet to score a nomination for best song); Little Women is the most prominent of these films, and Ronan is a consistent presence here, as well as an international draw (she scored BAFTA and Golden Globe nominations); while initially a dark horse, Nyong'o scored a major SAG nomination, is a previous winner with a lot of respect, and is the star of the biggest movie of the bunch. Of these four, my gut is telling me that Awkwafina will make it in. She won a the Comedy/Musical Golden Globe, which has a better than expected record with correlating to Oscars (56 of 77 winners have been Oscar nominated), and she's been rising all season long. It's flimsy, but I feel better about her here than the others. 5.
Conventional wisdom says that Ronan will probably make the cut, so I feel a bit silly for going against it. Despite her strong work and beloved status among voters, my gut says that Erivo gets the nom. Ronan's great in the film, but she's expected strong and, outside of Pugh and Chalamet, the film is such an ensemble piece that few breakout (you'd be forgiven for forgetting that Emma Watson is even in the film). Erivo is front and center. I'd feel safer if she'd stuck the BAFTA landing, but she's playing Harriet fuckin' Tubman; the Oscars love heroes and they love biopics. Other Possibilities
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Best Supporting Actress
70
6.3
6.4
Hustlers (2019)
1.
The likely winner.2.
She's been nominated everywhere, including twice from the BAFTAs (for both this and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood); even though the film isn't playing like they hoped, Robbie's performance (and her herself) has a lot of love.3.
She should be one of the category's few locks, but the film's lack of support elsewhere has me worried. Also of worry; that voters will see Hustlers as, just, that stripper movie, and Lopez herself as being not "thespian" enough to warrant accolades from such a prestigious organization (there are a lot of dickheads in Hollywood). Ultimately, I feel like she'll be here, but a small part of me sees her as the potential biggest snub of the season.4.
After those top three, things get rather scattered. The precursors haven't really cleared things up; BAFTA gave Margot Robbie two (one for Bombshell, one for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood), snubbed JLo, and nominated Laura Dern, Scarlett Johansson and Florence Pugh; SAG went with the above three, as well as Johansson and Nicole Kidman; Globes went with the above three Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell) and Annette Bening (The Report); Critics' Choice were the above three, Johansson, Pugh and Zhao Shuzhen (The Farewell). While I've resisted it for a while, the precursors have made it hard for me to leave Johansson out. I'm still wary about having her here (I just don't know if voters are willing to nominated her twice this year), but she's been nominated everywhere that she needs to be, and Jojo Rabbit is the biggest player out of this bunch. Not safe, but statistically the best choice.5.
Man, do I wanna have Zhao Shuzhen in here; it's a delightful performance, the film deserves respect, and it would be an all-around nice moment for the Academy. I just have a gut feeling that she's left out. Though I'm a bit hopeful for The Farewell in a few categories, she hasn't shown up in enough races for me to feel confident. I'm not that confident about Pugh, but she's in a more beloved film, she's having a breakout year, and the BAFTA nod shows she has a fan base. Bates, Bening or Kidman could rally, but this one looks like either Pugh's or Shuzhen's, and I feel better about the former. Other Possibilities
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Best Supporting Actor
30
8.1
7.6
1.
My top five has no changes here guys. I still have my sure picks (Pacino, Pesci; Pitt is winning), my concerning pick (Hanks continuously gets snubbed), and my wildcard (despite not showing up anywhere else, I think Song will ride Parasite's wave). 2.
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Best Adapted Screenplay
66
7.2
7.7
The Two Popes (2019)
1.
Again, this is another category with no change from my previous list. While the fact that this is a complete overlap with BAFTA nominations (all five here scored there), they've got a better record for overlap than most (twice they've gone five for five in the past decade, and it's been a while), and these seem to have so much more momentum than the rest of the field. This is a category that produces some stunners every now and again (Borat, In the Loop, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs), so look out. That being said, I feel fairly confident with this roster.2.
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Other Possibilities
6.
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Best Original Screenplay
183
7.8
8.1
Marriage Story (2019)
1.
Again, the placing doesn't really matter here; Hollywood, Marriage Story and Parasite are guaranteed nominees.2.
3.
4.
After looking like an outside contender early, Johnson's screenplay has scored nominations from both BAFTA and WGA, and the film itself has taken off, becoming an awards player (the PGA nod puts it in the BP race) and box office hit. While it would likely jinx his chances to call him a lock, it would now be something of a surprise to see him not make the final list.5.
This fifth spot is a killer. Ultimately, I've stuck with Wang; this is a category that, often, goes for offbeat, heartfelt films that aren't big enough or traditional enough to make the bigger races, and it would be a terrible look for the Academy to make this an all male roster. That said, I'm very hesitant about it. She's only scored a Critics' choice nod and, while they have a fairly strong correlation record (each of the five Oscar screenplay nominees in 2017 and 2018 made were nominated by the critics; they typically go about four-for-five), that's not enough to make me feel comfortable. Other precursors haven't helped; WGA (where The Farewell and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood were ineligible) went with 1917 and Booksmart, while BAFTA also went with Booksmart. While that would suggest that Booksmart is a major player, and Wang is not the only hope that this category has to break an all dude stronghold, I just don't see something so contemporary, so loud, so straight comedic making it in. 1917 is a major BP contender but, for all of the film's technical master, it's script isn't being championed as much as the filmmaking is (think Dunkirk). There's also Pain & Glory, which hasn't score anywhere major, but that hasn't stopped films before (20th Century Women, A Separation, Margin Call, The Messenger, Happy-Go-Lucky, Wall-E, Ratatouille, to name a recent few) and Pedro Almodóvar is a beloved filmmaker that has won this category before. The no-precursor love rule could also extend to Jordan Peele for Us or the Safdie Brothers for Uncut Gems. It's a tricky spot that could go a lot of ways.Other Possibilities
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Best International Film
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Best Animated Feature
316
7.2
8
1.
2.
3.
The only major change to this list from the last; Missing Link's Golden Globe win (only one winner of that award has ever been snubbed for an Oscar nomination; Tintin in 2011), and nominations at all of the major precursors (BAFTA, PGA, Annie Awards) make this a prominent contender. 4.
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Other Possibilities
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Best Documentary Feature
6
7.2
7.6
American Factory (2019)
1.
No changes to this one.
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Best Original Song
99
6.7
7.2
Frozen II (2019)
1.
No changes from my previous list, outside of shifting #4 and #5.
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Best Original Score
79
8
8.6
1917 (2020)
1.
No changes from my previous list.
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Best Cinematography
136
7.7
7.8
The Lighthouse (2019)
1.
Still the likely winner.2.
Lock.3.
After looking like an outside contender, Sher's scored nominations with the Cinematographer's Guild and British Academy, and looks pretty solid here for his striking work on the DC film.4.
ASC and BAFTA nominated, with a frontrunner movie; probably in, but not quite a lock.5.
The last spot comes down to Blaschke and Papamichael. Both scored BAFTA noms (where likely player Richardson was passed over; he's not getting snubbed at the Oscars), but Blaschke was passed over at the ASC. The smart pick is Papamichael, as he's got the precursor love and the more in-play movie. I think, however, that the black-and-white gothic if The Lighthouse will win the voters over; two B&W movies scored nominations last year, and voters love classicism evoked. It's a close race.Other Possibilities
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If the movie catches fire, Kyung-pro could leapfrog a few contenders.8.
Hasn't caught on anywhere, but Caleb Deschanel's nomination for Never Look Away proves that voters are willing to throw a nomination to a well-liked international film.
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Best Costume Design
61
7.3
8.3
Little Women (2019)
1.
The only surefire lock that this category has.2.
After a CDG snub, Durran picked up momentum with a big BAFTA nod. I won't go as far as to say she's locked in, but chances are she'll score her seventh nomination.3.
BAFTA-here. nominated, with a broadly supported film; Rubeo is no longer the longshot that she was, and appears to be a very viable contender.4.
I still see the film's setting and residual love for her, following last year's win, being enough to get Carter in again this time. 5.
Surprisingly missed a BAFTA nomination, given the film he's got, but I think Rocketman's extravagance and flamboyance will win Day a spot after missing last year for Bohemian Rhapsody (which he, ironically, did get a BAFTA nomination for).Other Possibilities
6.
It's like I said before; the film's beloved, as is Powell, and it's strong work, but it doesn't have the flash or pop of the above contenders. Has a very strong shot (it did score a big BAFTA nom), but I'm not seeing it.7.
A period biopic with a BAFTA nomination. Tamine's been under the radar all season, but don't be surprised to see her pull off a nomination.8.
Missed a BAFTA nod that it sorely needed.9.
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Best Production Design
96
7.5
8
Jojo Rabbit (2019)
1.
The only change here is shifting 1917 and The Irishman, as the technical contribution to the film itself seems great (sets and locations had to be built around the one-shot timeline). My biggest concern is history; this was the BAFTA lineup, and they've only gone five-for-five with the Oscars twice (though, admittedly, one of those was just two years ago). I just think that this lineup is really strong, and each have the necessary momentum. I could see a wildcard like Little Women or, even more so (given it's momentum) Parasite leapfrogging one of these.2.
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Other Possibilities
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Best Film Editing
73
7.6
8.2
Ford v Ferrari (2019)
1. Thelma Schoonmaker- The Irishman
2. Michael McCusker and Andrew Buckland- Ford v Ferrari
3. Fred Raskin- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
4. Jinmo Yang- Parasite
5. Jeff Groth- Joker
Other Possibilities
6. Tom Eagles- Jojo Rabbit
7. Bob Ducsay- Knives Out
8. Jennifer Lame- Marriage Story
9. Lee Smith- 1917
10. Chris Dickens- Rocketman
2. Michael McCusker and Andrew Buckland- Ford v Ferrari
3. Fred Raskin- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
4. Jinmo Yang- Parasite
5. Jeff Groth- Joker
6. Tom Eagles- Jojo Rabbit
7. Bob Ducsay- Knives Out
8. Jennifer Lame- Marriage Story
9. Lee Smith- 1917
10. Chris Dickens- Rocketman
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Best Sound Editing
229
5.6
6.9
1. 1917
2. Ford v Ferrari
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
4. Avengers: Endgame
5. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Other Possibilities
6. Rocketman
7. Ad Astra
8. The Irishman
9. The Lion King
10. Joker
2. Ford v Ferrari
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
4. Avengers: Endgame
5. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
6. Rocketman
7. Ad Astra
8. The Irishman
9. The Lion King
10. Joker
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Best Sound Mixing
147
7.1
7.4
1. 1917
2. Ford v Ferrari
3. Rocketman
4. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
5. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Other Possibilities
6. Joker
7. Avengers: Endgame
8. The Irishman
9. The Lion King
10. Ad Astra
2. Ford v Ferrari
3. Rocketman
4. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
5. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
6. Joker
7. Avengers: Endgame
8. The Irishman
9. The Lion King
10. Ad Astra
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Best Makeup and Hairstyling
30
6
7
Judy (2019)
1.
Lock.2.
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5.
It came down to Dolemite and Hollywood, with the latter just having too much momentum to discount. Dolemite could certainly make it in, but the momentum isn't on it's side right now. Other Possibilities
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Made the BAFTA cut; could definitely ride a wave of momentum here. 8.
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Best Visual Effects
500
7.2
8.5
Avengers: Endgame (2019)
1.
There are no real changes to this top five, just readjustments to the placing. 2.
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4.
While still think it gets in, I'm a bit shakier than I was before. I could see it getting snubbed in favor of more traditional fare.5.
Other Possibilities
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No, no. We don't need to see this anymore.
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The Irishman: 9
Joker: 8
1917: 7
Little Women: 6
Marriage Story: 6
Parasite: 6
Jojo Rabbit: 5
Rocketman: 5
Ford v Ferrari: 4
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker: 4
Bombshell: 3
Avengers: Endgame: 2
Frozen II: 2
The Farewell: 2
Harriet: 2
Judy: 2
The Lion King: 2
Pain & Glory: 2
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