2024 Oscar Nomination Predictions

1.

Starting to seem like the one to beat. It's a broad hit with actual craft and intelligence, a monumental achievement.

2.

Lock. Probably another Scorsese film that does well with nominations, but has a hard time winning anything, though.

3.

Probably not winning any of the top-of-the-line categories (original screenplay was always it's best bet; got put into adapted), but it was a cultural milestone with strong notices; safe.

4.

Could be a CODA-esque sleeper that sneaks up and scores. It's a lovable, human dramedy with real contenders (Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay) that could gain the overall support necessary to win. We'll see.

5.

I don't see a win path yet (BAFTA could save it), but it's a strong contender in most categories it's in.

6.

Seemed a little fringe at first, but it's scored everywhere it needs to (including major showings at SAG), and could very well pick up a win. Should be in.

7.

The big foreign-language player this year. Not a lock, but it's a critics' pick, and did well at BAFTA (and won two big globes). The fact that it won't be up for International Film might hurt it's visibility, but I think it'll be in.

8.

Doesn't seem to have that much love, even outright derision in some pockets, but the pedigree is too undeniable. Likely too big to fail. Wouldn't be the biggest surprise to see it miss, though.

9.

So small that I could see it missing, but it's had surprising power this season, scoring everywhere it's needed to (Critics', DGA, Globes, PGA). Likely in.

10.

The PGA nod sealed the deal for me. If something this cold could win over even the Producers branch, it can do well anywhere. Plus, I don't see who the spoiler is. The Color Purple got the SAG ensemble nod, but it's really under-performed everywhere else. Saltburn, maybe? It's got some buzz, but it's critical reception wasn't great and it hasn't had much heat anywhere else (BP nod with the Critics', but that felt like a customary "predict the Oscars" pick). May December if it hits a support wave, but it hasn't played well anywhere. It's an odd year; the PGA 10 are likely to be the Oscar 10.

Other Possibilities

11.

12.

13.

1.

Christopher Nolan- OppenheimerIt looks like it's his year. Scorsese's the only one who could even come close, and I don't see that happening.

2.

Martin Scorsese- Killers of the Flower MoonMissed at BAFTA, but I cannot believe the Academy would snub him. If they do... wow.

3.

Yorgos Lanthimos- Poor ThingsAfter the top two, there are about five names for three spots. Of them, Lanthimos seems the safest. Poor Things is another example of the auteur's singular vision, and it's a big, technical marvel. The BAFTA snub was weird, especially considering that film did so well there, but they have a jury system where the top three in voting get nominated, and the rest are picked by that group. My thinking is, he wasn't top three for them, but he will be in the top five for the Oscar.

4.

Jonathan Glazer- The Zone of InterestI've been going over and over with these last two spots. Who will be the customary foreign language pick? Who's the DGA nominee that misses (they typically go 4/5, with #1-3 all nominated, along with Gerwig and Payne)? Are this actually gonna be an all male field? Whatever the case, I see Glazer in. The Zone of Interest is winning International Feature, and the director of four of the last five winners has scored a director nod. Plus, Glazer has a fair amount of hardware from critics' groups; Boston, Los Angeles, Toronto and the National Society of Film Critics have all awarded him (he also won the San Francisco Bay Area critics award, which doesn't seem like a major win until you look at their winners and see they've only missed awarding an Oscar nominee twice in the past 20 years). I'm not confident, but he feels safer here than anyone else.

5.

Alexander Payne- The HoldoversI don't feel great about excluding women here, especially when there are genuine, honest-to-God female contenders here. I just can't shake the feeling; this is gonna be another sausage fest. Gerwig seems like the obvious pick, but the director's branch is fickle with studio blockbusters; Dune, Green Book, A Star Is Born, The Martian, American Sniper, Captain Phillips, Argo, Zero Dark Thirty, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Inception (all DGA nominees, all hits, all Oscar snubbed). Minimal, auteur-ish films typically score big here, and Barbie just isn't that. The there's Justine Triet, who I honestly had in her for the longest time and could still easily see sneaking in. I wanted to include her (especially after the BAFTA nom, where she was likely top three) but The Holdovers just has more juice, and Payne is a previous, director's branch-approved nominee (three nominations). If they went for him for Nebraska, they'll go for him again for a film with much, much more love.

Other Possibilities

6.

Justine Triet- Anatomy of a Fall

7.

Greta Gerwig- Barbie

8.

Celine Song- Past LivesShe'd be a wonderful surprise, but I just don't know. I could see Past Lives overperforming, and I could see it missing everywhere but screenplay.

9.

Bradley Cooper- MaestroMaybe, but it would require a level of admiration that hasn't even been hinted at throughout the season. Yeah, he got the BAFTA nom, but he was obviously a juried pick. In the U.S., Maestro feels like it's on the way out, even before it's actually in.

1.

Cillian Murphy- OppenheimerIt's gonna be him or Giamatti. I'd still give Murphy the edge, even after the Critics' Choice loss. We'll see.

2.

Paul Giamatti- The HoldoversHe's overdue, and the film is very well-liked. Could easily take this.

3.

Bradley Cooper- MaestroHe's not winning, but I don't think the film has fallen off enough for him to be snubbed. Nominated everywhere he's needed to be; likely safe.

4.

Jeffrey Wright- American FictionHe's scored all of the major precursor noms, including SAG. He's also a pretty well-like actor, seen by some as overdue for the recognition, and his film is in the upper-echelon on BP nominees. Not a lock by any means, but feels the safest of the rest.

5.

Leonardo DiCaprio- Killers of the Flower MoonThis last spot is down to DiCaprio and Domingo. The Rustin star has the showier, more awards-baity role (gay civil right icon). He's also been nominated at all of the major precursors, including BAFTA (though he was probably a jury save there). DiCaprio is DiCaprio, in a Scorsese movie that'll score nominations across the board. In the end, I think that wins out. It's not a soaring, heroic performance, but it's strong, and the movie's got heat. I'm not certain people really know or care about the Netflix biopic, and it's only other potential nomination is in Best Song.

Other Possibilities

6.

Colman Domingo- RustinCould easily score, but there's typically someone that misses despite doing well with precursors. If the movie had any juice whatsoever, compared to the above films, I'd take him.

7.

Andrew Scott- All of Us StrangersIf BAFTA couldn't even nominate him...

1.

Emma Stone- Poor ThingsSlowly starting to look like the favorite.

2.

Lily Gladstone- Killers of the Flower MoonThat BAFTA snub is a head-turner, but I'd be stunned if she wasn't nominated here. She could even still win, though she'd have to win SAG for that.

3.

Margot Robbie- BarbieThis is a stacked category, so I only feel safe with Gladstone and Stone. After them, Robbie has pulled ahead. It'd be an atypical nominee here (more comedic, less overly-dramatic, more commercial), but she's scored everywhere needed (BAFTA, SAG, Globes, Critics) to be considered a major player. Plus, a great deal of Barbie's success is thanks both to her work in front of and behind the camera. I think they'll reward that effort.

4.

Sandra Huller- Anatomy of a FallI had her in already, but BAFTA more or less sealed the deal. Not so much the nomination itself, but my assumption that she was a top three nominee there, along with the film in most categories. It's got a lot of passion behind it (she could win BAFTA), both at home and abroad. I'd be foolish to call her a lock, but I think she's very strong.

5.

Greta Lee- Past LivesConventional wisdom says to go with Carey Mulligan here. She's a previous nominee, she's in a biopic, and she scored all of the major precursor nominations. I'll probably kick myself if/when she gets in, but I just can't shake the feeling that there's both going to be a major snub here, as there always is (Davis and Deadwyler last year, Lady Gaga the year before, etc), and Maestro is not as strong as the precursors would lead us to believe. It's not a traditional biopic, leaving many oddly cold. It'll miss a few big ones. Cooper can't miss actor, that feels preordained (he's promoted himself so heavily, and actor is relatively thin), but I've never felt too strong about Mulligan. It's strong work, but this category is never certain.

With that in mind, I've got Lee here at five. Past Lives is just the kind of critical hit that lingers, and could pop up in some surprising spots. It's likely in picture and screenplay, so people are seeing it, and her lead turn has garnered raves. Outside of her, there are a couple of others that could surprise, but she feels the strongest possibility.

Other Possibilities

6.

Carey Mulligan- Maestro

7.

Annette Bening- NyadI doubt it, but the SAG nomination and respect for her makes it a possibility. I just don't buy Nyad has much impact, especially compared to the films above. We'll see.

8.

Fantasia Barrino- The Color PurpleIf she'd scored a SAG nod, then maybe, but the BAFTA was like juried, and the film doesn't have much heat. Not out of it though.

1.

Da'Vine Joy Randolph- The HoldoversProbably the safest bet for an acting win.

2.

Emily Blunt- OppenheimerShe's overdue for recognition, and she's in the BP favorite. Not a lock, but I'd be stunned if she didn't score here.

3.

Danielle Brooks- The Color PurpleShe's been nominated everywhere, even as the film has underwhelmed. I wouldn't call her a lock, because there's a lot of potential here, but she feels relatively safe.

4.

Penelope Cruz- FerrariAfter those three, things get chaotic. There are a lot of possibilities, but Cruz has always felt right to me. Honestly, I had her in before the SAG nomination; she's well-liked, enough so that many though she would win Actress two years ago with no precursor nominations. She has one this year, and a fiery performance to boot. I see another nomination.

5.

Sandra Huller- The Zone of InterestI've just got no damn clue here, guys. Foster scored Critics' Choice, Golden Globe and, most importantly, SAG nominations. That would seem safe, but I just don't think Nyad is a real player. Ferrara's got the biggest movie, and a big monologue. With that said, I feel like she would've shown up at SAG if she had love. Possibly, but I don't see it.

Pike has scored the BAFTA nod, as well as a Globe nomination. I think she was probably a jury pick in the former, but the Globes have a weird track record for scoring flukey nominees here, so I wouldn't rule her out. Neither could I rule out Moore, how scored the Globe nomination, as well as the Critics' Choice. If the film had more heat I'd keep her, but May December has, disappointingly, fallen off a bit. This all leads me to Huller, who I think will pull of dual nominations. The BAFTA isn't out and out all important, but The Zone of Interest is on the upswing, and, looking at the category, I think she was likely a top three candidate at the British Oscars. Plus, she's got visibility thanks to Anatomy. Flimsy, sure, but this is a wild category. Lotta ways this could go.

Other Possibilities

6.

Jodie Foster- Nyad

7.

Julianne Moore- May December

8.

America Ferrara- Barbie

9.

Rosamund Pike- Saltburn

10.

Claire Foy- All of Us Strangers

1.

Robert Downey Jr.- OppenheimerThe frontrunner.

2.

Ryan Gosling- BarbieIf he can win SAG... maybe.

3.

Robert De Niro- Killers of the Flower MoonHe has, surprisingly, been the most consistent presence for the Killers team this year. Not a lock (I could still see a surprise snub in favor of younger, newer contenders), but looking safe.

4.

Dominic Sessa- The HoldoversAfter those three, things get wild. There are a lot of contenders, each who've shown up in various precursors. Of them, I've warmed to Sessa's chances. While he was probably a jury pick with BAFTA, the nomination puts him in the spotlight, and The Holdovers is having a lot of staying power. His age is his biggest disadvantage, as younger actors typically get passed over for older, overdue stars. There aren't many "overdue" guys here this year, though, and this is a movie people like. I think he scores.

5.

Charles Melton- May DecemberThere are about four guys with legit claims to this last spot, and even a couple of spoilers that could trip everyone up. There's the Poor Things duo of Dafoe (Globe, SAG) and Ruffalo (Critics' Choice, Globe), Sterling K. Brown (Critics' Choice, SAG), and Melton (Critics' Choice, Globe). On paper, Brown would seem the best of the bunch here. The SAG nod is major, and he doesn't have the vote split potential of Dafoe and Ruffalo, and he has a film that has legit heat. Melton likely has the weakest; his is the only of the four not likely to score a picture nomination, and the guilds have mostly rejected the film. So then, why am I sticking with him? Each year, there's a critics' choice-only player; Bryan Tyree Henry (Causeway) and Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans) last year, J.K. Simmons (Being the Ricardos), Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals), etc. Not the same category, but something similar has happened with Kristen Stewart (Spencer) and Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans) the last few years. I think Melton is that contender this year. Probably off, but I taking him here.

Other Possibilities

6.

Mark Ruffalo- Poor ThingsProbably the better shot of the duo (it's broader and more scene-stealing), but, again, I think the strength of both, and the category itself, will hold him and Dafoe back.

7.

Sterling K. Brown- American FictionHe's a strong contender, but I just thing there's too much heat here. The SAG nod is big, but I wonder if that's love for the film and his performance, couple with love for him (he's got six individual nominations, one individual win and three overall). American Fiction was never gonna do well at BAFTA, but if he could've got jury-pick at least, I'd probably have left him in (I actually held him the top five until I started writing this).

8.

Willem Dafoe- Poor Things

9.

Milo Machado Graner- Anatomy of a FallThey rarely nominate kids, but Anatomy's got heat, and it's been a long to since we've had a gobsmacker surprise here. We're due.

10.

Paul Mescal- All of Us Strangers

1.

Christopher Nolan- OppenheimerNot sure it'll win, but Nolan's gotta be the likeliest nominee.

2.

Cord Jefferson- American FictionLocked in, and could really take it. We'll see.

3.

Tony McNamara- Poor ThingsIn, and could certainly win.

4.

Eric Roth and Martin Scosese- Killers of the Flower MoonThe BAFTA snub is concerning, but I just think this film plays better here. I wouldn't be shocked if they're snubbed, but it'd be a real surprise.

5.

Noah Baumbach & Greta Gerwig- BarbieThere's a reason they promoted this for original; a clear path to a win vs. a chance that it'll miss a nomination. I still think it's in; it's a writer's picture, a well-liked film, and Baumbach and Gerwig are respected, previously nominated screenwriters. Still, Zone of Interest has real strength and All of Us Strangers is the kind of smaller film that could inspire a lot of voter passion. This will be interesting.

Other Possibilities

6.

Jonathan Glazer- The Zone of InterestCould get in, certainly, but it's a film built on quiet terror; i.e. I assume voters will see it more as a directorial feat than a writerly one.

7.

Andrew Haigh- All of Us Strangers

8.

Kelly Fremon Craig- Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret

9.

Ava DuVernay- OriginI've seen a few voters post about the film, but seems a bit too late. Botched rollout.

1.

David Hemingson- The HoldoversLock. Could win.

2.

Justine Triet and Arthur Harari- Anatomy of a FallVery well-liked, and has overperformed all season. I could see a win here, for the film itself and as a way to give Triet something for the achievement.

3.

Celine Song- Past LivesCould falter everywhere else and still show up here.

4.

Sammy Burch and Alex Mechanik- May DecemberAfter the top three, this category gets very thin. Despite the fact that it's underperformed with the guilds, May December is one of the few viable options here. It's a critical darling, the kind that writers should eat up, and the last of the remaining contenders where the screenplay could be considered an asset. I could see it miss, but I think the category's thinness save it.

5.

Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer- MaestroI kinda just through up my hands here guys. I had Saltburn for awhile, but if it couldn't even score a BAFTA nomination, where the film managed three juried acting slots, I don't see it having any steam here. Air has been a non-starter, and they creative team has gone on record saying that most of the dialogue was improvised. Asteroid City should be in, but it hasn't had much impact. Iron Claw never picked up steam. Dream Scenario? Beau Is Afraid? Hell, could The Boy and the Heron score a surprise nom? Maestro: the process of elimination pick.

Other Possibilities

6.

Emerald Fennell- Saltburn

7.

Alex Convery- Air

8.

Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola- Asteroid City

9.

Sean Durkin- The Iron Claw

10.

Hayao Miyazaki- The Boy and the Heron

1.

It or Boy and the Heron will win. This was bigger, so it takes poll position.

2.

3.

Could get snubbed, but it has the comeback narrative (it was a bomb that eventually was able to almost break even), and Pixar is always strong here.

4.

Annie and Critics' Choice nominee. I don't know, we'll see. Netflix has proved solid here lately.

5.

Didn't really make an impact, but Aardman is beloved, and it scored a BAFTA nomination. This isn't a wide field, so I think it'll sneak in. TMNT seems the consensus, but I think voters will see it as too juvenile. Suzume could, but I think it'll bee too small. Wish wasn't very good, but it's Disney so it has a shot. Super Mario Brothers wasn't very good, but it was a monster hit, and scored a PGA nom. Could go a lot of ways.

Other Possibilities

6.

7.

8.

9.

1.

Without Anatomy of a Fall here (France did not submit it), Zone should pick up a relatively easy win.

2.

It's been a hit on Netflix, and made several shortlists (Makeup, Score, VFX). Feels the safest.

3.

After those two I'm uncertain, as I always am here. I think the Ukrainian conflict is like catnip for voters, so I'll take it here. It's the one international conflict they allow themselves to speak of, so... yeah. It'll follow a recent phenomena of docs scoring noms here.

4.

After those, [shrug emoji]. Fallen Leaves feels likely, as it's well-reviewed and shown up everywhere else (missed at BAFTA, but they kept Anatomy of a Fall in and considered Past Lives non-English). It could also be seen as too slight (it's an 81-minute rom-com). I still have it, but I've cooled recently.

5.

I feel like there will be some big snubs here, as usual. The Taste of Things is well-liked, but I wonder if voters may reject it; it was France's submission, over what would have been a likely winner in Anatomy of a Fall. I don't know. Is Perfect Days too quiet? Maybe. It, also, hasn't shown up anywhere but Critics' Choice (meh). I settled on The Teachers' Lounge because it feels like a spoiler, and it's been almost a decade since Germany squeaked one in. I really, really don't know guys.

Other Possibilities

6.

7.

8.

9.

10.

1.

Feels safest (that's not much with this category).

2.

BAFTA and PGA nominee, Netflix backing. They don't like to go for docs about a single person, but I think this one feels solid. They like music docs, and this is the only one here this year.

3.

BAFTA, DGA and PGA, important subject; probably in.

4.

Critics' Choice nominee. An Alzheimer's-tinged love story; feels like it'll be very affecting, sticking in voters minds.

5.

I think the singe-subject bias will rear it's head with Still, as well as the fact that it's already won several Emmy's; i.e. is it television or cinema? I had Four Daughters here for a while, but it's had no precursor support. That isn't a killer here, but I wonder if it's too small. I went with Bobi Wine. It's a DGA nominee, and it's got National Geographic/Disney backing; i.e. it'll have some heft behind it.

Other Possibilities

6.

7.

8.

9.

10.

1.

Ludwig Göransson- OppenheimerThe winner.

2.

Robbie Robertson- Killers of the Flower MoonFeels like a lock for a posthumous nomination.

3.

Jerskin Fendrix- Poor ThingsProbably safe. Scored all of the necessary precursor nods (Globe, BAFTA, Critics' Choice) and is in a BP favorite.

4.

John Williams- Indiana Jones and the Dial of DestinyAfter the top three, things, as always, get frayed. With that said, I think voters will check the John Williams box on their ballots again. He's a legend, it's a solid score and, more importantly, he'll be 92 next month. He's gone back on his claim that this will be his last score, but I think voters will take every chance they have to honor the legend.

5.

Mica Levi- The Zone of InterestThis is a tough one. I look at the 15 scores that made the shortlist, and I can rule out maybe one (if American Symphony gets in... wow). Across the Spider-Verse was a hit, with a great score, and Pemberton is overdue for recognition here. It has scored nominations everywhere; BAFTA, Critics' Choice, Globes. To most, it's a lock. I'm just not sold. Those are the same precursors that Pinocchio got last year, and it missed, and the music branch has not gone wild for animation as of late. Sure, Soul won, and Encanto got nominated, but since the Pixar heyday of the 2000s/early-2010s, it's been slim. In the since 2011, four animated films have been nominated. Two were Disney and/or Pixar (the aforementioned duo above), one was John Williams (Tintin, and one was Alexandre Desplat (Isle of Dogs), with what was likely an afterglow nomination (he won the previous year for The Shape of Water). Comic book movies have an even worse record; two back-to-back winners a few years ago (Black Panther and Joker), and only one other nomination (John Williams' Superman in 1978). I could see it, but I just can't go for it.

Barbie looks to do quite well in the other music category, and that could certainly help it here. It only got a Critics' Choice nod though, were they went wildly overboard with Barbie love, and the music itself isn't particularly memorable. Saltburn got the fifth BAFTA slot, and could easily surprise here, but I just don't know. The film hasn't been a consistent enough presence this season, and that nod feels very much like a "hometown" pick (composer Anthony Willis was nominated for his first collaboration with Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman, but failed to score the Oscar nod). Society of the Snow has a little juice, but they've turned weirdly cold to composer Michael Giacchino following his win for Up (he didn't even make the shortlist for his incredibly Batman score last year). In the end, I took Zone of Interest. Mica Levi was surprisingly snubbed at BAFTA, where Zone was beloved, but I think it's the kind of nerve-rattling, stirring score that will stick in voters' minds.

Other Possibilities

6.

Daniel Pemberton- Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

7.

Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt- Barbie

8.

Anthony Willis- Saltburn

9.

Michael Giacchino- Society of the Snow

10.

Joe Hisaishi- The Boy and the Heron

1.

"What Was I Made For?"- Barbie
#1 and #2 are guarantees.

2.

"I'm Just Ken"- Barbie

3.

"The Fire Inside"- Flamin' HotIt shouldn't really be eligible, but it is, and it's Diane Warren's annual entry. While I could see this being the year they finally stop nominating here, I'll believe it when I see it. Plus, it's actually pretty good this time.

4.

"Dance the Night"- BarbieThree in one year is rare, especially lately (not even La La Land could pull it off). It's only happened four times previously; Beauty and the Beast, The Lion King, Dreamgirls and Enchanted. There is a key difference this year, though; Barbie was a monster. Each song was a major hit, and this is an incredibly bland field. There are some fun choices down the line, but of what's feasible... meh. I think they'll stick "Dance the Night" in because it's one of the few here that's noteworthy.

5.

"It Never Went Away"- American SymphonyIt's likely coming down to "Road to Freedom" and "It Never Went Away", with my gut telling me to go for the latter. I just don't think Rustin's gonna hit. Sure, it's the civil rights anthem du jour this season, but... I don't know. I just think the music branch will go for winner Batiste over Lenny Kravitz here. We'll see.

Other Possibilities

6.

"Road to Freedom"- Rustin

7.

"Keep It Movin'"- The Color Purple

8.

"Quiet Eyes"- Past Lives

9.

"High Life"- Flora and Son

10.

"Dear Alien (Who Art in Heaven"- Asteroid City

1.

Hoyte Van Hoytema- OppenheimerProbably winner.

2.

Rodrigo Prieto- Killers of the Flower MoonSeems pretty safe, as do all of the top four here. Each scored ASC and BAFTA nominations, each are BP contenders.

3.

Robbie Ryan- Poor Things

4.

Matthew Libatique- MaestroProbably the only of the top four that could miss (is it too gaudy?), but that's doubtful.

5.

Łukasz Żal- The Zone of InterestI think it's between El Conde and Zone, though it'd be fun to see a surprise here. The former scored a surprise ASC nod, features crisp black and white, and it's cinematographer, Ed Lachman, is a legend here. Historically, ASC is a better bet to go five for five, but I don't feel confident with El Conde. I don't know if people are watching, I don't know if people want to watch it (satire or not, a movie about Pinochet is a tough sell), and I think Zone is just the bigger player. Żal's been here before, and his unfussy, often static compositions tend to leave an impression.

Other Possibilities

6.

Ed Lachman- El Conde

7.

Linus Sandgren- SaltburnIf it had got in anywhere, I might have take a flyer. It just hasn't though. Possible, but unlikely.

8.

Rodrigo Prieto- BarbiePossible, but I don't know if Barbie is going to runaway with the tech categories the way others do. I think Prieto will have to settle for one nomination.

9.

Pedro Luque- Society of the SnowCould we see a big surprise here? I don't know. Netflix has some players that could stick around.

10.

Erik Messerschmidt- The KillerFincher movies do well here. Maybe.

1.

Sarah Greenwood and Katie Spencer- BarbieProbably the winner, though #2 is a strong player as well.

2.

James Price, Shona Heath, and Zsuzsa Mihalek- Poor Things

3.

Ruth De Jong and Claire Kaufman- OppenheimerLock.

4.

Jack Fisk and Adam Willis- Killers of the Flower MoonLock.

5.

Chris Oddy, Joanna Maria Kuś and Katarzyna Sikora- The Zone of InterestI wrestled with this one. My gut instinct is Asteroid City. It's got some staggeringly beautiful sets, and Adam Stockhausen (the production designer) is a previous winner, multi-nominee. But it's only picked up Art Director and Critics' Choice award nominations. That would be fine if the movie was playing well in other places, but it isn't. Zone of Interest is. It's sets are sturdier, most historically-accurate, but play a major role in the film (think Parasite). I don't like going for the BAFTA five, as they've only matched up 5/5 twice, but this feels like a gimme.

Other Possibilities

6.

Adam Stockhausen and Kris Moran - Asteroid City

7.

Arthur Max and Elli Griff- Napoleon

8.

Kevin Thompson and Rena DeAngelo- Maestro

9.

Paul D. Austerberry and Larry Dias- The Color Purple

10.

Suzie Davis and Charlotte Dirickx- Saltburn

1.

Jacqueline Durran- BarbieOnce again, this will come down to #1 and #2.

2.

Holly Waddington- Poor Things

3.

David Crossman and Janty Yates- NapoleonAfter the top two, there's a lot of room for movement in this top five. Despite my uncertainty in it's potential, I feel pretty safe with Napoleon here. Big, colorful 18th and 19th Century French costumes are voter catnip, and I'd be surprised if voters don't take the bait.

4.

Jacqueline West- Killers of the Flower MoonI could see this as a potential snub. It's not as flashy as others here, more period accurate. It's too good though, and too detailed to be taken for granted. Killers isn't winning much, but it'll keep in Scorsese movie tradition and score a lot of nominations.

5.

Ellen Mirojnick- OppenheimerOnce again, I feel like a jag taking the BAFTA five, but I think Oppenheimer is just too beloved, and scores a semi-surprise nomination here. The costumes, already, feel iconic, and the period detail is immaculate. Plus, it would be veteran designer Ellen Mirojnick's first nomination; i.e. she's overdue, and the film is a monster.

Other Possibilities

6.

Mark Bridges- MaestroWith the trajectory this film's been on, most would rule it out. Bridges, though, is enough of a reason to see it as a spoiler. The man has two Oscars and four nominations, including a wonky one for Joker. I think the five above are a bit too strong, but I would not be surprised to see him slip in.

7.

Lindy Hemming- WonkaThe movie's a hit, and it's got fancy costumes, but it hasn't managed many precursor notices. It miss and CDG and, more tellingly, BAFTA. I had it in for awhile, but it doesn't seem to have caught on.

8.

Francine Jamison-Tanchuck- The Color Purple

1. Jennifer Lame- Oppenheimer
2. Thelma Schoonmaker- Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Laurent Sénéchal - Anatomy of a Fall
4. Kevin Tent- The Holdovers
5. Yorgos Mavropsaridis- Poor Things

There's gotta be one big snub here. There is every year (All Quiet on the Western Front last year, Belfast and West Side Story in 2021, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood in 2019, a lot of big ones in 2018). I'm just having a hard time figuring out how it is. It's not gonna be Lame or Schoonmaker. Even if Killers falters, I can't imagine this branch snubbing the three-time winning legend, denying the all-time record for nominations (nine).

I think Anatomy of a Fall is breaking at just the right time. The BAFTA nod is important, but I think the measured intensity and intrigue at the heart of the film will stick in voters minds (think Tar last year). For some damn reason, I also feel weirdly solid about The Holdovers making it in. I'm thinking about past nominees like Jojo Rabbit or Green Book, Three Billboards or even another Alexander Payne film The Descendants.

That leaves the five spot. I could definitely see Poor Things missing. Not out of quality, but out of sort of blindspot voting. One or two movies start to catch heat, and one of the obvious picks that's not quite near the top gets forgotten. Like I said, I doubt it's Lame or Schoonmaker, and Mavropsaridis is third to most. I still have, because I think that'll be more to Barbie's detriment. It's a well-liked movie, but the cuts aren't quite as precise as others here, and it hasn't shown up in as many precursors as you'd expect for such a juggernaut (ACE isn't releasing their nominees until after Oscar noms, and it missed BAFTA).

Zone of Interest scored the BAFTA nod, but I'm not sure this is a category it'll surprise in. It'll do well, but I'm not sure it has the necessary pop to surprise here. American Fiction could be a fun surprise. It's got a lot of love, and that could translate into a nomination.

Other Possibilities
6. Paul Watts- The Zone of Interest
7. Nick Houy- Barbie
8. Hilda Rasula- American Fiction
9. Michelle Tesoro- Maestro
10. Pietro Scalia- Ferrari

1. Oppenheimer
2. Maestro
3. The Zone of Interest
4. Ferrari
5. Barbie

Pretty solid on my top four, but five is tough. Barbie and Killers got the CAS tip, while Dead Reckoning got in at BAFTA. But you can't really count out The Killer. Even with a more muted response, Fincher films always have incredible sound design/mixing, and Napoleon has a lot of big, booming battle sequences. I went with Barbie, largely because of the musical elements. If there was still two categories, it'd be a shoe-in for mixing. Here, it's close.

Other Possibilities6. Killers of the Flower Moon
7. The Killer
8. Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning
9. Napoleon
10. The Creator

1.

MaestroProbable winner.

2.

Poor ThingsCould pull an upset.

3.

OppenheimerProbably the most at-risk of it's "locks", it's still very likely. BP players do well here, and there's a lot of subtle work throughout (and the prosthetics later).

4.

GoldaThere are so many delightful options for these last two slots that it pains me to go with the bog standard "famous actor plays historical person" picks. While I could see voters being a bit apprehensive to wade into the Israel/Gaza stuff, Golda fits the Academy m/o. Big prosthetic, "importance". Scored a Makeup Guild nod for Special Makeup Effects (prosthetics), and will probably score here, too. I'd love to be wrong.

5.

NapoleonBAFTA typically misses one here (Golda), which leaves this last spot down to Killers of the Flower Moon and Napoleon. The Scorsese epic will do better overall but, based on what I've heard, a surprising amount of work in the film is VFX. That leads me to Napoleon, recreating the looks of 18th/19th Century France with aplomb. With ten contenders here though, any movie could score.

Other Possibilities

6.

Killers of the Flower Moon

7.

Society of the Snow

8.

Beau Is Afraid

9.

The Last Voyage of the Demeter

10.

Ferarri

1.

The Creator#1 and #2 are locks, with Poor Things likely safe, too (it's the only BP player that made the shortlist).

2.

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

3.

Poor Things

4.

Indiana Jones and the Dial of DestinyMost have Across the Spider-Verse in, but I just don't buy it. Only two animated films have ever been nominated here (three if you count 2019's Lion King, and they were stop-motion (The Nightmare Before Christmas and Kubo and the Two Strings). While this one feels different than most, I'm unmoved. I'm also unsure of what to make of Godzilla Minus One. It feels like a legit contender, but it hasn't shown up anywhere else (VES Society nominated it for character animation), the character of Godzilla doesn't have the strongest history here (nothing).

Dead Reckoning could be a stealth contender. The BAFTA nomination is important, and this franchise is long overdue for recognition. But I just don't think this is it. It doesn't have the success of Cruise's other films, and there are blockbusters with bigger VFX, which is typically what's required of studio films. That's why I'm taking Dial of Destiny here. De-aging is popular with this branch (Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, The Irishman, Rogue One), as is LucasFilm (obvious examples). Unsure, but talking myself into it.

5.

Society of the SnowThen there's the supporting VFX player. Napoleon got the BAFTA nod (and VES) and looks to have some support across the board, and Ridley Scott has a strong track record here. But I've gotta believe that Society of the Snow's strength on the shortlists has to mean something. VES nod, and Netflix backing, which has proven surprisingly strong (All Quiet on the Western Front, The Irishman, The Midnight Sky), are enough to sway me.

Other Possibilities

6.

Napoleon

7.

Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning

8.

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

9.

Godzilla Minus One

10.

Rebel Moon: Part One - A Child of Fire