My Way Too Early 2016 Oscar Predictions

And the Nominees could possibly be...

*Bridge of Spies
*Brooklyn
*Carol
*The Hateful Eight
*Icon
*Joy
*Our Brand is Crisis
*The Revenant
*Spotlight
*Steve Jobs

While Brooklyn was slightly overshadowed by Me and Earl and the Dying Girl's success, both were incredibly well-received, and Brooklyn's period-romance story line is right up the Academy's alley. Plus, Sundance has done incredibly well the last few years (Whiplash took three), and with Fox Searchlight backing it, it looks like an early favorite. The Revenant has the bonus of coming from last year's Best Director & Picture winner Alejandro González Iñárritu. If the movie's any good, an early signs are promising, than it'll be to interesting to pass up. Spielberg has a pretty strong track record, with three Best Picture nominees in the last decade (he's only made five movies in that time), so I feel relatively confident with Bridge of Spies. The Academy have really had a love affair with David O. Russell the last few years; his last three films have a combined 25 nominates in a 4-year span (he himself has gotten five noms), so Joy seems like a strong possibility. They've also been Pretty good to Quentin Tarantino, who's last two movies were both nominated for the top prize. With Weinstein backing, The Hateful Eight looks strong on paper. The Weinstein's also have Carol, which boasts a strong cast and prestige premise.

Steve Jobs had a surprisingly tumultuous pre-production, with numerous delays and withdraws, but now appears to be right on track for an awards run later this year. It's got a strong cast and crew, and for all the mud-slinging that came out of the Sony hack, most comments about Jobs script were strong, so with solid campaigning it should be a force. Our Brand is Crisis has Warner Bros. angling for their next Argo and, based on the film's premise, they may have found it. Sandra Bullock has been on a roll the last few years, helping The Blind Side and Gravity into Best Picture, and her presence could definitely help here. I get a little fuzzy with my last two. Many haven't been talking about Spotlight, but it's an issues movie that, if good, could really strike a chord. Icon is in a similar position; while no one has really been talking about, if it pulls off Lance Armstrong's story in a compelling way, I could definitely see it making a run.

The Next Five
*The Danish Girl
*Me and Earl and the Dying Girl
*The Sea of Trees
*Snowden
*Trumbo

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
Bridge of Spies

How'd I Do?: 4/8. While I didn't predict it to win, I was one of the few to include Spotlight into my list, so I feel pretty good about that, and I swear that I would've had The Big Short in here if I'd known it was going to be released in 2015. As for the rest...

Bridge of Spies

Strong, but too quiet to really compete. Eventually nominated for...
*Best Picture
*Best Supporting Actor (WON)
*Best Original Screenplay
*Best Production Design
*Best Score
*Best Sound Mixing

Steve Jobs

was tanked by terrible box office; had it been a hit, I think it would've definitely been in the running. Was nominated for...
*Best Actor
*Best Supporting Actress

The Revenant

was nominated, and was the favorite going into the ceremony, but only ended up winning three of it's twelve nods...
*Best Picture
*Best Director (WON)
*Best Actor (WON)
*Best Supporting Actor
*Best Cinematography (WON)
*Best Production Design
*Best Costume Design
*Best Makeup & Hairstyling
*Best Film Editing
*Best Sound Editing
*Best Sound Mixing
*Best Visual Effects

Our Brand is Crisis

Bombed hard, and nobody remembered three days after it was released, let alone on Oscar night.

Brooklyn

was nominated, but wasn't seven nomiation hit that I expected...
*Best Picture
*Best Actress
*Best Adapted Screenplay

Joy

opened to mixed reviews and middling box office, but Jennifer Lawrence still managed to get nod...
*Best Actress

The Program (formerly Icon)

opened at some film festival to mixed reviews, and will be rolling out in a quiet release in 2016.

The Hateful Eight

proved to be QT's most divisive movie in some time, and only made the cut in...
*Best Supporting Actress
*Best Cinematography
*Best Score (WON)

Carol

was in the running all season, but was eventually snubbed. It did manage six nominations...
*Best Actress
*Best Supporting Actress
*Best Adapted Screenplay
*Best Cinematography
*Best Score
*Best Costume Design

And the Nominees could possibly be...


*John Crowley- Brooklyn
*David Gordon Green- Our Brand is Crisis
*Alejandro González Iñárritu- The Revenant
*David O. Russell- Joy
*Steven Spielberg- Bridge of Spies

The Next Five
*Danny Boyle- Steve Jobs
*Todd Haynes- Carol
*Tom Hooper- The Danish Girl
*Gus Van Sant- The Sea of Trees
*Quentin Tarantino- The Hateful Eight

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
Steven Spielberg- Bridge of Spies

How'd I Do?: 1/5.
Eventual Winner: Alejandro González Iñárritu- The Revenant

And the Nominees could possibly be...


*Leonardo DiCaprio- The Revenant
*Michael Fassbender- Steve Jobs
*Ben Foster- Icon
*Jake Gyllenhaal- Southpaw
*Eddie Redmayne- The Danish Girl

Yet again, we're looking at another banner year for the Best Actor category. Redmayne has a role that screams OSCAR even louder than the one he won for last year. While I'm not very confident that he can go back-to-back, he'll still be a major force. While DiCaprio has been snubbed numerous times by the Academy, he's usually always been in the running, and this year he's got another golden opportunity. He's working with Alejandro González Iñárritu this time, a director who's last four movies have all gotten acting nods, so the odds seem to be in his favor. Foster's always been an actor on the cusp of breaking out, but this may finally be the year; he's playing Lance Armstrong in Icon. While the movie doesn't seem to be generating much early buzz (I could easily see it moving to 2016), I think if it's good enough, Foster will definitely be in the conversation. I mean, he's playing a tarnished, real-life character; even if the movie's not very good, there'll still be buzz.

Playing another polarizing real-life character is Michael Fassbender as Steve Jobs, in the creatively titled Steve Jobs. Fassbender was an outside-the-box pick to play Jobs, but assuming that he can nail Aaron Sorkin's mile-a-second dialogue, he should be fine. Will all of the question marks surrounding the film, if it wows, he should likely make the cut. If history tells us anything, it's that the Academy goes crazy for three things; biopics, diseases, and transformations. Jake Gyllenhaal's performance occupies the former. Gyllenhaal's been on a hell of a roll the last couple of years, with some strong work in Prisoners, Enemy, and last year's Nightcrawler, which he came incredibly close to a nomination for. He gained 63 pounds for the film (30 of which back from losing it for Nightcrawler), which is pretty damn close to De Niro's legendary 68 lbs. gain. Plus, the boxing genre has always been a fruitful one. Gyllenhaal's got a few shots this year (Demolition could very well end up being his awards-pic), but he looks pretty strong here.

The Next Five
*Don Cheadle- Miles Ahead
*Bryan Cranston- Trumbo
*Tom Hanks- Bridge of Spies
*Ian McKellen- Mr. Holmes
*Robert Redford- Truth

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
Jake Gyllenhaal- Southpaw

How'd I Do?: 3/5. I guess I just never thought they'd give to DiCaprio.
Eventual Winner: Leonardo DiCaprio- The Revenant

And the Nominees could possibly be...


*Cate Blanchett- Carol
*Sandra Bullock- Our Brand is Crisis
*Jennifer Lawrence- Joy
*Carey Mulligan- Suffragette
*Saoirse Ronan- Brooklyn

Blanchett is an Academy favorite in a potential Oscar heavyweight. Throw in some period romance and a helping of lesbianism, and you've got the ingredients for a strong contender. Ronan received some incredible notices for her performance in Brooklyn and, considering that the film looks like a major force even this early in the game, will likely factor in. Lawrence has already managed to get three nods in just a few short years; she's a fan and voter favorite. She's been nominated for both collaborations with David O. Russell, and won her first for Silver Linings Playbook. If Joy strikes the same way their previous collaborations have, she'll definitely be a frontrunner.

Mulligan has probably the biggest Oscar-bait of the five women above; playing a woman fighting for woman's rights in the 1920s. Period piece, historically important, empowerment; she's got it all working for her here. While I'm a bit unsure about the film (it was announced like two years ago and is just now coming out), I expect here performance to be strong enough. Bullock is essentially my wild card here. While here role doesn't necessarily cry out OSCAR, neither did her last two nominated roles in The Blind Side and Gravity (though they did gently suggest it). I'm going out on a limb with Our Brand is Crisis, and if I'm predicting the movie itself to make the cut, I should probably go with the film's lead to make it in too. It'll be tough though, this is shaping to be the best year for this category in quite a while.

The Next Five
*Marion Cotillard- Macbeth
*Julianne Moore- Freeheld
*Meryl Streep- Ricki and the Flash
*Lily Tomlin- Grandma
*Naomi Watts- Demolition

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
Cate Blanchett- Carol

How'd I Do?: 3/5.
Eventual Winner: Brie Larson- Room

And the Nominees could possibly be...


*Diane Ladd- Joy
*Jennifer Jason Leigh- The Hateful Eight
*Rooney Mara- Carol
*Kristen Stewart- Clouds of Sils Maria
*Meryl Streep- Suffragette

David O. Russell's movies usually score numerous acting nods (Silver Linings Playbook and American Hustle each landed in all four categories), and I expect a similarly enthusiastic response this time around. There are a few names to pick from, but I expect Ladd to be the one who lands here from Joy. She's been around a long time, and has yet to win after three previous nods. She's got a pretty strong narrative. Mara could easily be bumped up to Lead Actress, but something tells me that the Weinsteins will campaign her in supporting; it's the smarter move. She'd be a returning nominee in a period, lesbian romance, fronted by Harvey Weinstein. If she's good, she'll be a lock. Meryl Streep is Meryl Streep and considering that the Lead category looks pretty fierce this year, where she'll be in the running for Ricki and the Flash, the likely option will be for her work in Suffragette. It's reportedly a smaller role, but one with a big showy speech, and it's those types of roles that usually stick.

Leigh has been around for a while and has yet to be nominated, but I, and several others, expect that to change this year. She's the only female of the title Hateful Eight, and it'll likely be showy enough to gain a lot of momentum; Tarantino usually writes strong female roles, minus Django Unchained. Kristin Stewart has come a long way since the Twilight franchise, working primarily in indies, including this one. She's already take home one award for her performance in Clouds of Sils Maria, the César Award (becoming the first American actress to do so). If it's strong enough to overcome the distance, it's scheduled for a limited April release, then I think she can make the cut.

The Next Five
*Virginia Madsen- Joy
*Ellen Page- Freeheld
*Elisabeth Röhm- Joy
*Amy Ryan- Bridge of Spies
*Julie Walters- Brooklyn

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
Rooney Mara- Carol

How'd I Do?: 2/5.
Eventual Winner: Alicia Vikander- The Danish Girl

And the Nominees could possibly be...


*Idris Elba- Beasts of No Nation
*Tom Hardy- The Revenant
*Samuel L. Jackson- The Hateful Eight
*Michael Keaton- Spotlight
*Seth Rogen- Steve Jobs

The Hateful Eight has six other options here (I feel like it's a foregone conclusion that someone from the movie will make it in here), but my money's on Jackson. He's been around for a long time, and has only been nominated once (Pulp Fiction in 1994), and based on what I've heard about the script, he has the most showy part of the group, which help Christoph Waltz in Tarantino's last two movie win the category. Elba could easily go lead, but I think that Netflix will take the smarter route and campaign him here. In Beasts of No Nation, he plays a villainous army commandant overseeing child soldiers. Villains usually thrive here, with Heath Ledger, Javier Bardem, Christoph Waltz, and last year's winner J.K. Simmons all taking the gold for their menacing work. If the Netflix stigma doesn't loom too largely, Elba has a strong shot. Alejandro González Iñárritu's movie's have always done well in the acting categories, and that good luck looks to extend to another ceremony. The Revenant is said to be very much the DiCaprio show, but Hardy reportedly has a strong, meaty role, and this category has always recognized great scene-stealers.

Keaton's coming off a performance in Birdman that many, including this writer, believe should have won him a golden boy. Not a whole lot is known of the dynamic among the Spotlight ensemble, but I'm guessing that Mark Ruffalo is the lead actor. If so, that still leaves several other strong actors for the film to compete here, but with Keaton having an all-time great comeback last year, I think that upward trajectory will continue this year. Aaron Sorkin helped get Apatow alum Jonah Hill his first Oscar nod with 2011's Moneyball, and odds are looking good that he'll do the same for Hill's pal Seth Rogen. Rogen's likely to maintain his comedic chops as Apple co-founder Steve Wozniack, and in a more serious film like this will likely be, that can stand out. While it sounds like he'll only appear in the film's first third based on the film's structure (the film is comprised of three scenes set in 1984, 1988, and 1998, and Wozniack left Apple in 1987), if the role is substantial enough, that shouldn't be a problem.

The Next Five
*Alan Alda- Bridge of Spies
*Robert De Niro- Joy
*Bruce Dern- The Hateful Eight
*Kurt Russell- The Hateful Eight
*Ken Watanabe- The Sea of Trees

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
Samuel L. Jackson- The Hateful Eight

How'd I Do?: 1/5.
Eventual Winner: Mark Rylance- Bridge of Spies

And the Nominees could possible be...

*Matt Chapman and Joel Coen & Ethan Coen- Bridge of Spies
*Enrico Casarosa and Bob Peterson- The Good Dinosaur
*Quentin Tarantino- The Hateful Eight
*David O. Russell and Annie Mumolo- Joy
*Thomas McCarthy & Josh Singer- Spotlight

Considering that I'm predicting a big night for Bridge of Spies, it would be fairly odd not to have it here. David O. Russell's last three movies have all gotten script nods, and I expect the trend to continue here. Tarantino has won this category twice, and will likely factor in again here. Spotlight is likely to be shut out of most of the technical categories, but the screenplay category is usually where well-respected, but not necessarily loved, make the cut. Pixar's cracked this category numerous times and, while Inside Out has the more original concept, The Good Dinosaur seems to be Pixar's best shot a true comeback.

The Next Five
*Bryan Sipe- Demolition
*Michael Arndt and Pete Docter- Inside Out
*Woody Allen- Irrational Man
*Alan DiFiore, Jim Kouf and Jamie Linden- Money Monster
*Chris Sparling- The Sea of Trees

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
Matt Chapman and Joel Coen & Ethan Coen- Bridge of Spies

How'd I Do?: 2/5.
Eventual Winner: Josh Singer and Tom McCarthy- Spotlight

And the Nominees could possible be...

*Nick Hornby- Brooklyn
*Phyllis Nagy- Carol
*Peter Straughan- Our Brand Is Crisis
*Alejandro González Iñárritu and Mark L. Smith- The Revenant
*Aaron Sorkin- Steve Jobs

The Next Five
*Cary Fukanaga- Beasts of No Nation
*Lucinda Coxon- The Danish Girl
*John Hodge- Icon
*Jesse Andrews- Me and Earl and the Dying Girl
*John McNamara- Trumbo

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
Aaron Sorkin- Steve Jobs

How'd I Do?: 2/5.
Eventual Winner: Charles Randolph and Adam McKay- The Big Short

And the Nominees could possible be...

*Roger Deakins- Sicario
*Emmanuel Lubezki- The Revenant
*Anthony Dod Mantle- In the Heart of the Sea
*Robert Richardson- The Hateful Eight
*Hoyte Van Hoytema- Spectre

While Sicario might not be typical awards fare, Deakins is an Academy favorite who's yet to win after 12 nominations, seven of which have been in the past eight years (since that point, 2009 and 2011 are the only years where he's been absent). He's been nominated for the last three years, and his last effort with the film's director, Denis Villeneuve (Prisoners) netted him a nod. Lubeszki is coming off of two straight wins, and he's reuniting with Birdman director Alejandro González Iñárritu here. The only film that we've seen any of here is In the Heart of the Sea, with a trailer released months ago. Judging by that brief trailer, Anthony Dod Mantle has really outdone himself this time. He's a previous winner for Slumdog Millionaire, and while he went un-nominated for his last Ron Howard collaboration, Rush, his work here looks too strong to be totally ignored. Robert Richardson has won this category three times before (JFK, The Aviator, Hugo), and nominated for his last two efforts with Tarantino. He made news when it was announced that he would be using Ultra Panavision 70 film, which hasn't been used widely since 1966, and netted numerous DPs Oscar noms during that time. Hoytema is probably my least confident pick (and I'm not very confident with any of these). Skyfall was nominated, but Roger Deakins shot that with his singular style. However, Hoytema has been doing some incredible work, he was close to a nod for Interstellar, and if Spectre is anywhere near as good as it's predecessor, it should get some strong buzz.

The Next Five
*Mauro Fiore- Southpaw
*Janusz Kaminski- Bridge of Spies
*Edward Lachman- Carol
*Masanobu Takayanagi- Black Mass
*Dariusz Wolski- The Martian

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
Robert Richardson- The Hateful Eight

How'd I Do?: 3/5.
Eventual Winner: Emmanuel Lubezki- The Revenant

And the Nominees could possibly be...

*The Good Dinosaur
*Home
*Inside Out
*Minions
*The Peanuts Movie

The Next Four
*Hotel Transylvania 2
*Monster Trucks
*The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water
*When Marnie Was There

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
The Good Dinosaur

How'd I Do?: 1/5; I incorrectly predicted that The Good Dinosaur would be the studio's comeback, instead of Inside Out.
Eventual Winner: Inside Out

And the Nominees could possible be...

*Michael Brook- Brooklyn
*Carter Burwell- Carol
*Michael Giacchino- Inside Out
*Thomas Newman- Bridge of Spies
*Thomas Newman- The Good Dinosaur

Brook got stellar marks for his Brooklyn score out of Sundance and, since I'm already predicting a solid night for the film, seems like a strong early bet. Newman is pretty much the Roger Deakins of the Score category; he's been nominated 12 times without winning, but that could change this year. After John Williams couldnt' do Bridge of Spies, Newman stepped in, giving him two potential noms. He's been nominated every other time he's worked with Pixar, and I expect the same to happen here. Giacchino won for 2009's Up, another Pixar film, and the only time he hasn't been nominated for a Pixar film was 2011's Cars 2. Barring some kind of catastrophe with Inside Out, Giacchino seems like a reasonable bet. Despite being in the industry for years, Burwell has yet to receive a nomination. With a period score on a Weinstein picture, this is likely his strongest bet yet.

The Next Five
*Roque Baños- In the Heart of the Sea
*Alexandre Desplat- Suffragette
*James Horner- Southpaw
*Thomas Newman- Spectre
*John Williams- Star Wars: Episode VII- The Force Awakens

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
Thomas Newman- Bridge of Spies

How'd I Do?: 2/5.
Eventual Winner: Ennio Morricone- The Hateful Eight

And the Nominees could possibly be...

*The Good Dinosaur
*Inside Out
*Ricki and the Flash
*Spectre
*Ted 2

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
Spectre

How'd I Do?: 1/5 but, improbably, Spectre's "Writing On the Wall" did eventually win.
Eventual Winner: Sam Smith and Jimmy Naples- Spectre

And the Nominees could possibly be...

*Bridge of Spies- Michael Kahn
*Joy- Jay Cassidy
*The Revenant- Stephen Mirrione
*Southpaw- John Refoua
*Spectre- Lee Smith

The Next Five
*Everest- Mick Audsley
*The Hateful Eight- Fred Raskin
*Icon- Valerio Bonelli
*In the Heart of the Sea- Daniel P. Hanley & Mike Hill
*Our Brand Is Crisis- Colin Patton

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
Michael Kahn- Bridge of Spies

How'd I Do?: 1/5

And the Nominees could possibly be...

*Inside Out
*In the Heart of the Sea
*The Revenant
*Spectre
*Star Wars: Episode VII- The Force Awakens

The Next Five
*The Avengers: Age of Ultron
*Bridge of Spies
*Everest
*The Good Dinosaur
*The Hateful Eight

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
The Revenant

How'd I Do?: 2/5.

And the Nominees could possibly be...

*The Hateful Eight
*In the Heart of the Sea
*The Martian
*The Revenant
*Spectre

The Next Five
*The Avengers: Age of Ultron
*Everest
*The Good Dinosaur
*Inside Out
*Star Wars: Episode VII- The Force Awakens

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
In the Heart of the Sea

How'd I Do?: 2/5 (The Revenant and The Martian. The other eventual nominees were Star Wars: The Force Awakens (in my next five), Bridge of Spies (even when I thought it would be successful, I didn't expect a sound nod, and the eventual winner Mad Max: Fury Road, which I expected to disappoint (there was no way it could be as good as the trailers, I thought); how wrong I was.

And the Nominees could possibly be...

*Brooklyn
*Carol
*Cinderella
*Crimson Peak
*Suffragette

The Next Five
*Bridge of Spies
*The Danish Girl
*Macbeth
*Pan
*Star Wars: Episode VII- The Force Awakens

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
Brooklyn

How'd I Do?: 2/5 with Carol and Cinderella making it in, and next fiver The Danish Girl, The Revenant and Mad Max: Fury Road, which swept the tech categories.

And the Nominees could possibly be...

*Brooklyn
*Carol
*In the Heart of the Sea
*Pan
*Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens

The Next Five
*The Danish Girl
*Bridge of Spies
*Macbeth
*The Martian
*Tomorrowland

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
In the Heart of the Sea

How'd I Do?: Not great; 0/5. I did better in my next five, with three of the five options *The Danish Girl, Bridge of Spies and The Martian making the cut. The two that I didn't get were the two that were most likely to win, and did; The Revenant and winner Mad Max: Fury Road.

And the Nominees could possibly be...

[I have a feeling that this category is going to be extended to five. I'm likely wrong, but what the hell.]

*The Danish Girl
*In the Heart of the Sea
*Jupiter Ascending
*Pan
*Star Wars: Episode VII- The Force Awakens

The Next Five
*Brooklyn
*Cinderella
*Far from the Madding Crown
*The Hunger Games: Mockingjay- Part II
*Macbeth

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
The Danish Girl

How'd I Do?: Poorly. Not only was the category not extended, but none of the five I picked made the cut. The nominees were Mad Max: Fury Road (winner), The Revenant, and The 100 Year-Old something or other than I'm not gonna look up because who cares.

And the Nominees could possibly be...

*Avengers: Age of Ultron
*In the Heart of the Sea
*The Martian
*Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens
*Tomorrowland

The Next Five
*Ant-Man
*Everest
*Fantastic Four
*Jupiter Ascending
*Jurassic World

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
Star Wars: Episode VII- The Force Awakens

How'd I Do: 2/5 (The Martian and The Force Awakens). Once again, I underestimated Mad Max and The Revenant, but even though Ex Machina was getting strong reviews at this point last year, there would've been no way in hell that I expected to even be nominated, let alone win. A genuine stunner.