My Way Too Early 2018 Oscar Predictions

And the Nominees Could Possibly be...



*Call Me by Your Name
*Darkest Hour
*The Greatest Showman
*Mudbound
*Phantom Thread
*The Post
*Suburbicon
*Thank You for Your Service
*Untitled Detroit Project
*Wonderstruck

The Post announcement came out while this list was being firmed up, but it immediately jumped to the top of the list. Spielberg's got an excellent record in BP, with his last three presitge dramas (War Horse, Lincoln, Bridge of Spies) all making the cut, with Lincoln likely 2012's runner-up. It also comes in the era of "fake news" and an assault on the press, meaning that it's story of The Washington Post dealing with the Pentagon Papers will strike a very timely chord. Add in Tom Hanks and Meryl Streep, and the fact that the last great movie about journalism, Spotlight, won top prize in 2015. If it's good, it'll at least be nominated. If it's great, it might just win.

The other most obvious nominees here for me were Darkest Hour, British WWII Churchill biopic (if it has a pulse, it'll probably sweep), and Untitled Detroit Project, Kathryn Bigelow's last two have been nominated (with The Hurt Locker winning). This doesn't mean that they'll be the heavy hitter come a year from now, but they just sound too good not to make this cut. Next was Phantom Thread and a pair of Sundance hits; Call Me by Your Name and Mudbound.

Thread is P.T. Anderson's reteam with Daniel Day-Lewis. While Anderson's last two flicks, Inherent Vice and The Master, missed the mark, but the last time he and Day-Lewis came together, it was an all-time great. Mudbound will likely serve as the category's only real diverse film (where 2016 seemed like a pretty diverse on from the onset, 2017 is looking a little less than solid), which could put it in lock position if the slots start filling up. While it'll have to overcome the stigma of Netflix's day-and-date model, the reviews out of Sundance were very strong, and this is the type of historical family story that has hit hard here in the past. Call Me by Your Name also premiered at Sundance, and got near-universal acclaim. Where being a gay-themed film would've hurt it a decade, it'll likely help it this time (just ask this year's winner). The Sony Picture Classics tag only boosts my confidence in the pick.

I went hard for Thank You for Your Service last year and, while my confidence is less than it was a year ago, I'm sticking with it this time. War stories have been becoming more in favor lately than they were in the 2000s, or even early 2010s, and the director, Jason Hall, was the screenwriter on one of the biggest hits of that genre, 2014's American Sniper. While it wasn't able to cross the finish line that many had expected it to, La La Land showed how much power an original musical can have when it's done right and, as 2012's Les Misérables showed us, quality isn't even essential to a musical's success; enter, The Greatest Showman. It's a Hugh Jackman vehicle, with big studio backing (20th Century Fox), and a prime release dat (Christmas). It also doesn't hurt that La La Land's songwriter's are doing the music for Showman.

The last time that one of Brian Selznick's books was adapted, it got 11 nominations and 5 wins. That movie was Hugo, and Wonderstruck is definitely trying to recapture some of that magic. Adding to that, it's got Todd Haynes (Carol) behind the camera and Amazon Studios producing it, who hit big last year with Manchester by the Sea. While writer's adapting their own work can be hit or miss, Selznick is doing the script, Wonderstruck's pedigree hints that it'll be able to make a genuinely special film. George Clooney has an odds and evens record; his even numbered films (#2, Good Night, and Good Luck; #4, The Ides of March) hitting well with the Academy, while his odd numbered flicks (#3, Leatherheads; #5, The Monuments Men) haven't connected. Suburbicon is his sixth, but don't worry, that numbers business isn't the only evidence I have to support my claim. The film's cast is stacked (Matt Damon, Julianne Moore, Josh Brolin, Oscar Isaac) and the script was done by Clooney and the Coen Brothers. A comic-mystery, if the film is able to consolidate both of those storytelling voices, I have complete confidence that it'll be in the running.

The Next Five
*Blade Runner 2049
*The Current War
*Dunkirk
*The Glass Castle
*Mary Magdalene

All of these movies were in the top ten in earlier versions, but just couldn't completely sell me. Blade Runner 2049 was in it very late, but I moved it out when The Post was announced. I could certainly see it sneaking in though; the Academy has been better to blockbusters as of late, and Villeneuve is on a hell of a hot streak, with Arrival finally bringing here last year. The Current War is classic awards bait, but the Academy has been slowly shying away from those. Plus, the last film that director Alfonso Gomez-Rejon did, Me and Earl and the Dying Girl, got no play. He's got The Weinstein Co. behind him, so I'm probably wrong, but I just didn't feel anything behind it. Another Weinstein flick that I came close to putting in was Mary Magdalene. It's from Lion breakout Garth Davis, and has a very awards-friendly cast with it; Rooney Mara (more on her later), Joaquin Phoenix (as Jesus), Chiwetel Ejiofor. Religious movie don't have much of a record, and while I'm confident that this roster of talent can do something strong, I'm not sure it'll hit unless it's something masterful; it'll be too divisive.

Dunkirk and The Glass Castle were the closest to making it for me. Dunkirk looks visually flawless and Nolan has a superb track-record, but not with the Academy. Inception was his only BP nominee and, though it had a similar rollout, it wouldn't have been without the revolutionary story. If the movie is great and it hits, he may have a stronger chance at Director nom, it could be in, but I'm shaky on it. Destin Cretton reteams with his Short Term 12 star Brie Larson for The Glass Castle, and if this is anywhere near as good as that film, he's now got an Oscar winner in his back-pocket.

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
**The Post**
Result: 4/9, with Dunkirk also making the cut. The Post made the cut for BP, but was the lowest scoring nominee (I'm a hell of a jinx).

And the Nominees Could Possibly Be...


*Kathryn Bigelow- Untitled Detroit Project
*Todd Haynes- Wonderstruck
*Dee Rees- Mudbound
*Steven Spielberg- The Post
*Joe Wright- Darkest Hour

The Next Five
*Paul Thomas Anderson- Phantom Thread
*George Clooney- Suburbicon
*Michael Gracey- The Greatest Showman
*Christopher Nolan- Dunkirk
*Denis Villeneuve- Blade Runner 2049

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
**Steven Spielberg- The Post**
Result: 0/5, though PTA and Christopher Nolan did make it in from my Next Five bracket.

And the Nominees Could Possibly be...


*Daniel Day-Lewis- Phantom Thread
*Tom Hanks- The Post
*Hugh Jackman- The Greatest Showman
*Gary Oldman- Darkest Hour
*Miles Teller- Thank You for Your Service

After going with a decidedly un-baity performance here last year, Casey Affleck for Manchester by the Sea (in fact, only one character was an actual person), I expect this category to get back to normal and go for the wholly expected biopic characters. The only original character I see making it in is Daniel Day-Lewis's for Phantom Thread; he's nominated for pretty much every performance that he's given, and he's won here thrice. While I'm not entirely sure that he'll take his fourth, at least not this year, it would take the film being a total turd for him to miss. On the flip-side, this year's most likely candidate is Gary Oldman, who's only ever been nominated once. He's playing Winston Churchill in film produced by the same people behind The King's Speech; he's due, playing the type of character that would be a prototypical career achievement award-winner.

The last time Hugh Jackman got a nomination, it was for 2012's Les Misérables. He's out for another musical this time with The Greatest Showman, playing P.T. Barnum. The mixture of history and music sounds like a strong prospect, aiding it is his performance in Logan, which itself probably couldn't get him nominated but could help with a "body of work" narrative for the year. Hanks, while often snubbed in favor of bigger performances, is at it again this year, reteaming with Steven Spielberg in The Post, a 70s set look at the Washinton Post's response to the Pentagon Papers. The last time that some played Ben Bradlee, Jason Robards in All the President's Men, won an Oscar, and, while I don't he'll win his third, the combination of character and the story's relevancy should sway a lot of voters. The last spot is a crowded one, but my gut is still going with Teller. While a somewhat divisive presence, he often gives strong performances, and the idea of him playing a returning soldier suffering from PTSD will likely be one too strong to ignore. It also helps that the last time that the film's director, Jason Hall, operated in this arena, he helped get Bradley Cooper a nomination for American Sniper.

The Next Five
*Chadwick Boseman- Marshall
*Timothée Chalamet- Call Me by Your Name
*Benedict Cumberbatch- The Current War
*Colin Firth- The Mercy
*Jake Gyllenhaal- Stronger

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
**Gary Oldman- Darkest Hour**
Result: 2/5, with Chalamet at least mentioned in the Next Five bracket (I thought voters would think he was too young; I was wrong). Most importantly though, I got the winner correct (well, probably anyone who predicted predicted that Oldman would win).

And the Nominees Could Possibly be...


*Jessica Chastain- Molly's Game
*Judi Dench- Victoria and Abdul
*Rooney Mara- Mary Magdalene
*Frances McDormand- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
*Meryl Streep- The Post

A swath of previous nominees here, the Best Actress category looks to be exceptional once again in 2018. Aaron Sorkin penned films have only once missed in the acting categories, so that bodes very well for Chastain. Add in the fact that she's playing his first female protagonist, and she looks like a lock already. So too does Streep, who could get nominated for just about anything. Taking her first main role with Steven Spielberg, playing a journalist attempting to break the glass ceiling in the 1970s; Streep should have no trouble making the cut. Stephen Frears leading ladies are often a force in this category, with Helen Mirren (The Queen), Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins), and Judi Dench (Mrs. Henderson Presents, Philomena) all making it in. Dench collaborate with him again this year in Victoria and Abdul; another of the light, historical dramedies that the director has been making for years. Playing Queen Victoria, Dench is another strong bet for this category.

The last two spots are tough. A lot of women who are either Academy favorites or up-and-comers, but I've settled on a pair of previous nominees, one of which is a previous winner. The previous winner is Frances McDormand. Originally out, I simply couldn't ignore the recent trailer for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. If she has that power and energy throughout the whole film, it's going to be a performance that is hard to overlook. Mara is another performer that often carries a lot of power, though her performances tend to be more internal than external. Playing the title role in Mary Magdalene, she's got a doozy of a role to chew on. With so much material to work with, and with Weinstein backing, it's hard for me to see this performance not excelling. Still, this is a tough category, with any of these women posing a legitimate contention...

The Next Five
*Lily James- Darkest Hour
*Brie Larson- The Glass Castle
*Jennifer Lawrence- mother!
*Julianne Moore- Suburbicon
*Emma Stone- Battle of the Sexes

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
**Jessica Chastain- Molly's Game**
Result: 2/5. Chastain wasn't nominated, but I at least predicted that the winner was nominated.

And the Nominees Could Possibly be...


*Mary J. Blige- Mudbound
*Carey Mulligan- Mudbound
*Julianne Moore- Wonderstruck
*Kristin Scott Thomas- Darkest Hour
*Naomi Watts- The Glass Castle

Supporting actress is usually the toughest category to predict in the early going. That being said, Scott Thomas, Moore and Watts all look pretty strong. Scott Thomas is a veteran actress who's only been nominated once, playing a biopic character; enough said. Moore's reteaming with her Far from Heaven director Todd Haynes, after receiving an Oscar nod for that film. Haynes himself has a great record with Actresses getting nominations, with Far from Heaven, I'm Not Here and Carol securing them. Watts is an overdue performer who's got two nominations under her belt. I won't spoil the film, but her story in The Glass Castle screams for Oscar. The Mudbound women, Blige and Mulligan, are pretty much guesses, but both did score strong notices out of Sundance.

The Next Five
*Penelope Cruz- Murder on the Orient Express
*Michelle Pfeiffer- mother!
*Amy Schumer- Thank You for Your Service
*Katherine Waterston- The Current War
*Michelle Williams- The Greatest Showman

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
**Kristin Scott Thomas- Darkest Hour**
Result: 1/5. These supporting ones are always difficult, and my predictions often show that (the fact the I even called one nominee is a surprise).

And the Nominees Could Possibly be...


*Armie Hammer- Call Me By Your Name
*John Hurt- Darkest Hour
*Oscar Isaac- Suburbicon
*Anthony Mackie- Untitled Detroit Project
*Michael Shannon- The Current War

Is it lazy or crazy that my list is almost exactly the same as last year? I had the trio of Hammer, Isaac and Shannon in my supporting actor picks last year, with only Shannon scoring a nod for Nocturnal Animals, though Hammer would've likely been in the running had The Birth of a Nation not imploded. Shannon is probably my most likely to be nominated, despite being the only one who's film I don't have in BP. While his role as George Westinghouse in The Current War could be more of a co-lead with Cumberbatch, The Weinstein Co. has a record of moving co-leads to supporting for an easier road (ex: Rooney Mara in supporting for Carol). Hammer's work has already been seen, and his work has garnered rave reviews. If Call Me by Your Name is going to get a BP nom, it's probably going to need an acting honor, and Hammer seems like the movie's best chance. Isaac and Mackie are really coin flips; Isaac is in an ensemble cast, but is one of the few that hasn't been nominated before and Mackie is reteaming with his Hurt Locker director Kathryn Bigelow.

Bigelow's last two movies have both scoring an acting nomination, and Mackie feels like the most likely to pop from the Detriot cast; it's a young cast, so he'll be seen as more "due", and he was probably close to scoring one for The Hurt Locker. Isaac is someone who has been popping up more and more, and a standout role in a big cast could be enough to score him his first. Darkest Hour has a lot of options here, but Hurt's the one who stood out to me. With just two nominations to his name, Hurt gives his final film performance in Darkest Hour, following his death in January. Posthumous nominations are few-and-far-between, but a role as potentially meaty as this, and an actor as respected as Hurt, could lead to one.

The Next Five
*Javier Bardem- mother!
*Sterling K. Brown- Marshall
*Kevin Costner- Molly's Game
*Woody Harrelson- The Glass Castle
*Ben Mendelsohn- Darkest Hour

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
**Michael Shannon- The Current War**

Result: 0/5, though Hammer was actually in the running (which is more than I could say for my other picks).

And the Nominees Could Possibly be...

*Destin Cretton, Andrew Lanham and Marti Noxon- The Glass Castle
*Luca Guadagnino and James Ivory- Call Me by Your Name
*Dee Rees and Virgil Williams- Mudbound
*Brian Selznick- Wonderstruck
*Aaron Sorkin- Molly's Game

We've already got two proven contenders with Call Me by Your Name and Mudbound. I'm more sure that Call Me will get in, but both were well-received, and I've got both in for BP; 'nuff said. While authors adapting their own work can be too much on the indulgent side, if Selznick's work hues closer to Gillian Flynn (Gone Girl) than Dennis Lehane (The Drop), then he'll be in the running. Sorking is usually a solid bet to score a nomination when he does a movie; while he's only got two nominations, he's dialogue heavy scripts are almost always close to the final five. It'll all depend on the quality of the category. Finally, we've got The Glass Castle, which comes from Short Term 12 helmer Destin Cretton, as well as UnReal creator Marti Noxon. There were a lot to consider here, but the prospect of Cretton's humanism and Noxon's humor was too much to overlook. This is going to be a tough category to crack though...

The Next Five
*Hossein Amini and Matthew Michael Carnahan- The Snowman
*Alex Garland- Annihilation
*Armando Ianucci, Peter Fellows, Ian Martin and David Schneider- The Death of Stalin
*Michael Mitnick- The Current War
*Jason Hall- Thank You for Your Service

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
**Luca Guadagnino and James Ivory- Call Me by Your Name**
Result: 3/5 (which should give you an idea of how limp this category was in 2017), plus I called the winner right (though Guadagnino wasn't a part of the nomination, just Ivory).

And the Nominees Could Possibly be...

*Paul Thomas Anderson- Phantom Thread
*Anthony McCarten- Darkest Hour
*Jordan Peele- Get Out
*Liz Hannah- The Post
*George Clooney, Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, and Grant Heslov- Suburbicon

While I'm not certain the Get Out can overcome the horror-movie stigma that the Academy has nurtured for decades, the film's reception was just too damn good for the film to be left out in the cold. A script nomination is usually where a great hit usually gets recognized when it can't anywhere else. Other than that, this list is comprised of all potential BP picks. I'd argue that Darkest Hour and The Post are two earliest frontrunners and, as such, I'd be shocked not to see them in. PT Anderson and the group from Suburbicon are perennial nominees here, and if their movies have both the quality and the originality to back them up, then they'll be in the running.

The Next Five
*Darren Aronofsky- mother!
*Simon Beaufoy- Battle of the Sexes
*Mark Boal- Untitled Detroit Project
*Martin McDonagh- Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri
*Alexander Payne & Jim Taylor- Downsizing

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
**Paul Thomas Anderson- Phantom Thread**
Result: 1/5. I could see this early out that Get Out would have the legs to pull off a nomination here, though I honestly didn't see it winning. Weirdly, I mixed up my PTA noms (I predicted he'd miss directing, and get in for script).

And the Nominees Could Possibly be...

*Barry Ackroyd- Untitled Detriot Project
*Roger Deakins- Blade Runner 2049
*Hoyte Van Hoytema- Dunkirk
*Edward Lachman- Wonderstruck
*Seamus McGarvey- The Greatest Showman

Deakins and Hoytema are the only two contenders we've seen here, and both look fantastic. Deakins has been nominated 13 previous times, and two of those come from pairings with Denis Villeneuve, 2049's director. The question isn't whether Deakins will get nominated, it's whether he'll win. War epics usually do well here, and Hoytema is one of the best un-nominated DPs around. He came close with his last pairing with Christopher Nolan, Interstellar; BAFTA & BFCA noms. Nolan's other DP, Wally Pfister, manged to net four nominations and one win (Inception), with the filmmaker, and, based on the footage we've already seen, it could lead to Hoytema's first. The team of Todd Haynes and Ed Lachman has proved fruitful for the DP in the past; two nominations for Far From Heaven and Carol. Working in two different settings, 1927 and 1977, will likely lead to different color patterns that will pop off the screen. Musicals have a strong record here, including a win here last year (La La Land), and if McGarvey shows his usual flair with the camera, his bright colors and long takes, then he'll likely jump to the top of the pack. The last time that Kathryn Bigelow and Barry Ackroyd collaborated, he got an nod for The Hurt Locker. While not everyone is a fan of his shaky-cam tactics, he's very well respected and is usually in the conversation for his heavier dramas (Hurt Locker, Captain Phillips).

The Next Five
*Dion Beebe- The Snowman
*Bruno Delbonnel- Darkest Hour
*Robert Elswit- Phantom Thread
*Greig Fraser- Mary Magdalene
*Janusz Kaminski- The Post

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
**Roger Deakins- Blade Runner 2049**
Result: 2/5, with Delbonnel at least mentioned in the Next Five. Finally, Deakins to the Oscar!!!

And the Nominees Could Possibly be...

*Carter Burwell- Wonderstuck
*Alexandre Desplat- Suburbicon
*Dario Marianelli- Darkest Hour
*Thomas Newman or John Williams- The Post
*John Williams- Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Spielberg movies have always done exceptionally well here, so I expect whoever's doing the score for The Post to be in, though the name of the composer may have a real effect on if it wins. John Williams is the most liked composer ever (50+ nominations), and if he could make it in for The Force Awakens, I find it likely that he'll have the same success for The Last Jedi. Marianelli has a pretty strong record of Oscar success with director Joe Wright; three nominations and one win (Atonement from four films together. A historic WWII epic sounds like another strong outing for the duo. Desplat is another favorite of the Academy, with eight nominations (and one win) within an eight-year span (2006-14). Reteaming with George Clooney could go hit-or-miss (he's never been nominated for a Clooney score), but I'm betting that it'll be more "hit" this time. Finally, for the last spot, I'm going with Burwell for another collaboration with Todd Haynes. Burwell's been in the industry for a long time, and finally received his first nomination for Haynes' last film Carol. If his score is nearly as successful as that one, I think the work will stick out.

The Next Five
*Alexandre Desplat- The Shape of Water
*Jonny Greenwood- Phantom Thread
*Jóhann Jóhannsson- Blade Runner 2049
*Benj Pasek & Justin Paul- The Greatest Showman
*Hans Zimmer- Dunkirk

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
**Thomas Newman- The Post (if he scores it)**
**Carter Burwell- Wonderstruck (if not)**
Result: 2/5; I had John Williams in for Star Wars, and was only halfway right with Burwell and Desplat (with them being nominated for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and The Shape of Water, respectively. Weirdly though, I mentioned all five nominees here, and only missed one film (Three Billboards).

And the Nominees Could Possibly be...

*Coco
*Beauty and the Beast
*Despicable Me 3
*The Greatest Showman
*The Greatest Showman

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
**The Greatest Showman**
Result: 2/5, with The Greatest Showman only getting one nomination, and Coco ultimately winning.

And the Nominees Could Possibly be...

*Coco
*Despicable Me 3
*Ferdinand
*The Lego Batman Movie
*My Entire High School Sinking Into the Sea

The Next Five
*Animal Crackers
*An Independent, Foreign Animated Film That You Won't Have Heard Of
*Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie
*Cars 3
*The Star

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
**Coco**
Result: 2/5, and I got the winner right.

And the Nominees Could Possibly be...

*Alexandra Byrne- Murder on the Orient Express
*Jacqueline Durran- Beauty and the Beast
*Jacqueline Durran- Darkest Hour
*Ellen Mirojnick- The Greatest Showman
*Sandy Powell- Wonderstruck

The Next Five
*Michael T. Boyd- Mudbound
*Consolata Boyle- Victoria and Abdul
*Jacqueline Durran- Mary Magdalene
*Jenny Eagan- Suburbicon
*Luis Sequeira- The Shape of Water

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
**Wonderstruck**
Result: 2/5, and the only future nominee that I didn't mention (Mark Bridges for Phantom Thread) was the one that eventually won.

And the Nominees Could Possibly be...

*Blade Runner 2049- Dennis Gassner and Alessandra Querzola
*Dunkirk- Nathan Crowley and Gary Fettis
*The Greatest Showman- Nathan Crowley and TBA Set Decorator
*The Post- TBA
*Wonderstruck- Mark Friedberg and Debra Schutt

The last Blade Runner made the cut here, as did Villeneuve's last foray into sci-fi (Arrival, and Sci-fi flicks have been doing quite well here over the past few years, so I'd say that 2049 looks like a lock, even now. Christopher Nolan films have had a solid track record here (The Dark Knight, Inception, Interstellar and The Prestige were all nominated), and taking his sensibilities to WWII will likely send voters flocking once again. In another potential bid for Nathan Crowley is The Greatest Showman, which will no doubt benefit from it's musical genre and period setting. The last time that a movie was made about the Washington Post in the 1970s, All the President's Men, it won here, and considering that all three of Spielberg's 2010s BP nominees have been nominated here, with Lincoln actually winning, I'd be surprised not to see The Post land here. While Todd Haynes' Carol couldn't make the cut here, I think Wonderstruck will have better luck. This is largely due to the fact that it has two period settings; 1927 and 1977.

The Next Five
*Beauty on the Beast- Sarah Greenwood and Katie Spencer
*Darkest Hour- Sarah Greenwood and Katie Spencer
*Ghost in the Shell- Jan Roelfs and TBA Set Decorator
*Murder on the Orient Express- Jim Clay and TBA Set Decorator
*The Shape of Water- Paul D. Austerberry and Jeffrey A. Melvin & Shane Vieau

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
**The Greatest Showman**
Result: 2/5, and I mentioned every future nominee (including eventual winner The Shape of Water).

And the Nominees Could Possibly be...

*Valerio Bonelli- Darkest Hour
*William Goldenberg & Harry Yoon- Untitled Detroit Project
*Dino Jonsäter- Thank You for Your Service
*Michael Kahn (Presumably)- The Post
*Joe Walker- Blade Runner 2049

The Next Five
*Affonso Gonçalves- Wonderstruck
*Joe Hutshing- The Greatest Showman
*Stephen Mirrione- Suburbicon
*Lee Smith- Dunkirk
*Dylan Tichenor- Phantom Thread

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
**William Goldenberg & Henry Yoon- Untitled Detroit Project**
Result: 0/5, with eventual winner Lee Smith mentioned in The Next Five. Sad.

And the Nominees Could Possibly be...

*Blade Runner 2049
*Dunkirk
*Star Wars: The Last Jedi
*Thank You for Your Service
*Untitled Detroit Project

The Next Five
*Alien: Covenant
*Coco
*Granite Mountain
*Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
*Justice League

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
**Dunkirk**
Result: 3/5, and I predicted the winner correctly.

And the Nominees Could Possibly be...

*Blade Runner 2049
*Dunkirk
*The Greatest Showman
*Star Wars: The Last Jedi
*Untitled Detroit Project

Musicals, sci-fi, action, war. These are the genres that kill here. I'd honestly be a little surprised if I missed many in this category.

The Next Five
*Beauty and the Beast
*Darkest Hour
*Thank You for Your Service
*Transformers: The Last Knight
*Wonderstruck

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
**The Greatest Showman**
Result: 3/5.

And the Nominees Could Possibly be...

*Darkest Hour
*Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
*Logan

As seen in the best actor category, the makeup for Darkest Hour appears to be pretty immaculate, and there's usually at least one "prestige" nominee here. Guardians looks like it has more of the wonderful work that propelled the first movie into this category two years ago. Logan is the wild card here; while I doubt that it has much of a shot at cracking any of the other categories (though an outside shot at Actor or Supporting Actor is possible, if not probable), blockbusters that get great reviews usually factor in somewhere in the tech categories. It has the showy, character makeup (Calaban), and the subtler type that adds definition to characters.

If There are 5 Nominees Here
*The Shape of Water
*Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Why the hell does this category only have three nominees? Each year, there are countless deserving movies (often more deserving than the movies that get nominated, arguably) that miss out due to this category being small. If the Academy finally decides to rectify, I think that these two would be the most likely to jump in. The Shape of Water is Guillermo del Toro's latest visual extravaganza. While Crimson Peak missed, Pan's Labyrinth won here and Hellboy II was nominated. The Last Jedi feels like an obvious one, even if The Force Awakens missed. With an expanded field, I believe that the work here will make it in.

The Next Five
*Beauty and the Beast
*Blade Runner 2049
*Bright
*The Mummy
*Wonder

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
**Darkest Hour**
Result: 1/3, and I at least mentioned Wonder. This was as obvious as Oldman's win.

And the Nominees Could Possibly be...

*Alien: Covenant
*Blade Runner 2049
*Ghost in the Shell
*Star Wars: Episode VIII- The Last Jedi
*War for the Planet of the Apes

Apes, Blade Runner, Star Wars feel like locks already; all come from franchises that have a strong record here. Alien: Covenant, while not a lock, looks very strong already. Ridley Scott movies have done pretty damn well here over the years, and I wouldn't be surprised to see another. The last spot came down to Ghost in the Shell and Guardians 2, and my gut tipped towards the Anime adaptations. Despite his storytelling problems, director Rupert Sanders has a way with visual effects, and his last movie, Snow White and the Huntsman made the cut. Also, the effects just look stunning. Guardians work looks strong too, but I think it'll come down to a "standard" sequel vs. "something new".

The Next Five
*Beauty and the Beast
*Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
*Justice League
*Thor: Ragnarok
*Transformers: The Last Knight

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
**Blade Runner 2049**
Result: 3/5, and I called the winner correctly, unfortunately (I really wanted Apes to win).