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Best Picture
868
7.3
7.7
1.
Likely the safest bet at the moment. There's no frontrunner yet, but Three Billboards' success with the guilds, including four nominations from SAG and top prize nod from the PGA (writer-director McDonagh wasn't eligible for the WGA prize, to explain its exclusion). I'm not sure if it's a winner, there are too many narratives going around, but it would be stunning if it missed a nomination. 2.
Critically-acclaimed, with all of the right precursor love; it's in, and will definitely be a potential winner (especially this year).3.
Another lock; SAG, PGA, WGA nomination. Also another that could win. 4.
Led at the Golden Globes, and has performed excellently with the guilds. The only reason that it's not higher is that it missed a SAG ensemble nod, historically needed to win BP. While this could be the one to break the spell (if it takes top prize at the PGA and DGA awards, it will), I don't see it winning for now. It is getting nominated though. 5.
Missed at the SAG awards (though, it's likely that it wasn't screened enough in time), which has been historically needed to win BP (the three above scored), and surprisingly missed for the WGA. There's no way it isn't making it though; it hit with the Producer's Guild, it's Spielberg, and it's a big "fuck you" to Trump. 6.
It's doubtful that the film can win, it doesn't have the stats behind it, but Dunkirk is getting nominated. Even as it's underperformed here, it's still likely going to kill at the BAFTAs, which'll propel it to, at the very least, a BP nod here. 7.
Not the lock that it once was, but still highly likely. PGA and WGA nods bode well for it. 8.
A surprise hit with the guilds, scoring top prize nominations at the PGAs, SAG awards, and WGAs. While it could get lost in the shuffle, and eventually written off as a good "comedy", I think that this one will be a surprise Best Picture nominee.9.
I had The Florida Project here for the longest time, but I Tonya is just on too big a wave of momentum to deny. It's exceedingly close, but I think this'll make the cut.Other Possibilities
10.
Could still pull of a surprise, like Room did a couple of years ago, but it looks like The Florida Project was just too small to overcome a crowded field. 11.
SAG nominee with a diverse cast and great reviews; if it wasn't a Netflix movie, it probably would be a lock. As it is, it looks like an uphill battle that it may not be able to overcome. 12.
The Brits could really drive this one home, but Darkest Hour just doesn't look like a great contender anymore. It could certainly surprise, but it seems unlikely. 13.
A surprise PGA nominee, Molly's Game is a solid contender, but a bit too out-there. If Sorkin can score a DGA nomination in the overall field (not just first-timer's group), then it could be in, otherwise I just don't see it. 14.
It got the PGA nod that it needed, but we've seen several comic book movies make the cut over the years, so I'm not inclined to believe it'll get in at the Oscars. It doesn't have any other major guild support (it missed a big shot at the WGAs, missing to Logan, another acclaimed comic book movie), and Justice League couldn't have helped. The major knock against the film's chances is that it likely isn't going to make it in any other categories, or none that really signify and Best Picture nominee (likely Deadpool's undoing last year). Could certainly make it, but it's a longshot.
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Best Director
889
7.3
7.8
Dunkirk (2017)
1.
Still no frontrunner yet, but del Toro is locked in. If he takes DGA, he's your winner.2.
Probably neck-and-neck with del Toro, with the former having the lead simply because The Shape of Water has the momentum. I will be honest though; Nolan has been snubbed a few times, and I'm getting a bad feeling in my gut that he's going to be cut out again. The rational part of my mind is overwhelmingly saying that he's going to make it (his film is too much of his own achievement to dismiss), but I wouldn't be totally surprised to see him miss (I would be surprised, but not as much).3.
It's got the precursor love, and may even be the favorite to win (maybe). There may also be a riot if there are no women included in this category this year. She's deserving, and it would be a surprise if she was left out here.4.
Three Billboards is emerging as a favorite, meaning that if it's gonna compete for BP it'll need to have a director nod. The DGA and BAFTA nods bode well for him. 5.
It's Spielberg, with a relevant film, and great reviews. He's been in all of the precursor awards, and he's a legend, but this is looking to be a crazy year. He missed a DGA nomination, but they've only gone 5-for-5 seven out of 70 times (and a few over those were years where there were over five nominees). If a director was going to sneak in, it'll likely be Spielberg, but...Other Possibilities
6.
Peele scored a DGA nod, and the film has more overall love. As mentioned, however, the Oscars and DGA rarely correlate 100%, and Peele seems the most likely to miss. He could still make the cut, and probably will, but my gut says he's the one that misses.7.
Call Me by Your Name's momentum has stalled a bit, and while it likely isn't missing a BP nod (where, I believe, Guadagnino would be nominated for producing), the six directors above just have too much momentum to overcome.8.
9.
10.
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Best Actor
309
6.8
7.4
Darkest Hour (2017)
1.
The frontrunner (as long as he takes the SAG prize). 2.
The most possible spoiler. If he wins the SAG award (because he's not winning BAFTA), then he may be able to swing it.3.
He missed a SAG nomination, but there are two things to consider there; #1, it's highly likely that screeners weren't sent out in time, and #2, this is fuckin' Daniel Day-Lewis, he's still as respected as they come and it would be a stunner to see him snubbed for what is his (self-described) final screen performance. 4.
He's been nominated everywhere that he needs to to contend (including a somewhat surprising SAG nod). The film's got heat, and it would be pretty confounding if this category was filled with all white guys again (not to reduce his work). It's pretty close between the next two, but I see him in. 5.
He's been nominated at all of the precursors, and won the Golden Globe (which has predicted a nominee or winner every year this decade). No lock, but looking very good for his second nomination. Recent misconduct allegations could diminish his chances, but I think they came out too late to impact that many votes. Other Possibilities
6.
The SAG snub seriously hurt his momentum (at was likely due to not enough people seeing the film in time, but still) and it's become something of a running joke that the Academy keeps snubbing him. While he could surprise, the men above don't already have two Oscars, and Hanks does. 7.
He scored a shocking SAG nod, but the film has no momentum whatsoever, and the above films do. Still though, it's Denzel; he's always got a strong shot and, while it would shock a bit, it wouldn't be totally unexpected. 8.
Highly unlikely, but the BAFTA nod puts him in the game.9.
Probably has no shot, but The Big Sick is doing very well on the Guild circuit. Plus, I'm just waiting for the big surprise this time out (there's usually at least one). 10.
Critics' Choice nomination, and that's it; in the conversation, but the movie came and went without much heat.
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Best Actress
425
7.1
7.5
1.
Likely the favorite; easily a lock.2.
Could spoil; locked in for a nomination, at least. 3.
Could still take the prize (if she wins the SAG awards, it's probably hers), but a lock for a nomination. 4.
The SAG nomination was a strong pick-up, but the fact that I, Tonya has been scoring all over with Guild nominations (including a Producer's Guild nomination, which she also received a nomination for) leads me to believe that the film has a lot of support.5.
Even without a SAG nomination (read the explanation for the snub above with Hanks), it's hard to see Streep missing out. She working with Spielberg in a film with a highly feminist storyline; not a lock, but looking very strong.Other Possibilities
6.
A surprise SAG nod probable BAFTA nomination make Dench a viable possibility here. She certainly doesn't have the momentum of the five above, but that hasn't stopped the Academy from nominating favorites in the past. Definitely one to watch. 7.
Despite Molly's Game doing surprisingly well with Guilds (the PGA nod was big), Chastain got snubbed at the SAG awards (missing to the unexpected Dench). While she's got a solid shot, and a lot of respect, the cards seem stacked against her this year. 8.
Like her costar, she probably doesn't have a great shot, but the BAFTA love puts her name in the hat.
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Best Supporting Actress
581
7.1
7.4
1.
Lost the Golden Globe, but likely still the favorite, albeit a minor one. However wins the SAG this year is winning the Oscar. 2.
Won the Golden Globe, and has a great shot at winning the Oscar. 3.
Missed a SAG nod, but she's a previous winner here in a film that is one of the big Oscar frontrunners. Only #1 & #2 are locks, but she's looking solid.4.
No lock, but she's been scoring all of the precursor nominations that she needs to. The Netflix curse could strike again, but I doubt it. 5.
A past winner with a well-received film; Hunter missed a Globe and BAFTA nod (though I'm guessing The Big Sick probably not being very big in Britain is the culprit of that snub), but the film is so well-liked, as is her performance, that I think that momentum will push her over. It's a stiff field though...Other Possibilities
6.
A BAFTA nominee that the British voters will really go hard for. The film has been under the radar this season, and doesn't have too much momentum, but she could certainly surprise here.7.
SAG, Globe and Critics' Choice Award nominee; she's been heavily recognized, and easily touted as the best part of the film. Trouble is, the film doesn't have any momentum (and was poorly received), and the above films do. I could certainly see her get a nomination, but I just think the other women here are going to overshadow her. 8.
BAFTA nominee, with a lot of respect, but she's not in the film long, and the BAFTAs are the only awards to recognize her work. Bit of a longshot.
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Best Supporting Actor
666
7.9
8.1
1.
Probably the favorite.2.
Will be the favorite if he wins the SAG award.3.
Only missed at the BAFTAs (largely because they went for a British star there instead), and is a highly respected character actor. Like Supporting Actress, only #1 and #2 are locks, but Jenkins looks like a very strong contender.4.
The momentum is strong with Plummer here; the BAFTA nomination was a big pickup, and the inherent notoriety of his recasting make him a very hot prospect. Missed a SAG nod, though that is likely because the film didn't screen until very late, but the momentum of the message his nomination would say to harassers ("you can be replaced; this won't be tolerated") might be too tantalizing to pass up. 5.
After #1 and #2, these last three could really go to any variation of about five or six actors; Jenkins and Plummer have picked up enough quality nominations to warrant some confidence, whereas Hammer is much more of a guess. While nominations from the Critics' Choice, Golden Globe, and Independent Spirit Awards are nothing to sniff at, they don't correlate to actual Academy voters; i.e. I'm banking more on passion for the film and performance. Also, the stats; BAFTA and SAG rarely go 5-for-5 in predicting Oscars (though, to my points detriment, neither do the HFPA, which my predictions mirror), and passion picks usually go a long way here. The biggest question then is, who is this year's, if there is one, passion pick? I'm going with Hammer, though there are a slew of possibilities.Other Possibilities
6.
He scored some rather surprisingly nominations with SAG and BAFTA, but he's well-liked and the film is looking more and more like the frontrunner. It's a strong role, but not a big one though, and it's been over 25 years since a movie has netted two actors nominations here. Will the two Billboards stars break this spell, or will Rockwell be the only one? I'm leaning towards the latter, but would not at all be surprised if he's nominated.7.
Here's one of those potential passion picks that I was talking about; he's a respected character actor whose work in the film is highly endearing. He hasn't shown up anywhere outside of the Critics' Choice Awards (not even the Independent Spirit Awards), but neither did Tom Hardy in 2016 or Michael Shannon last year, and all they had going in was a Critics' Choice nod. I wouldn't be totally surprised to see his named called nomination morning. 8.
Looks like a longshot, but that SAG nomination came out of nowhere, despite the film having no buzz. It honestly would be a bit surprising to see him nominated, but it isn't out of the realm of possibility. 9.
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Best Adapted Screenplay
418
7.2
7.3
1.
Ivory is still winning this thing. 2.
Lock.3.
Lock.4.
Not quite a lock, but an excellent contender. Could be hurt by the Franco allegations, but this is such a thin category that it would be surprising.5.
#5 is a total and utter toss-up. The first four have showed up everywhere, except BAFTA (where only Call Me by Your Name and Molly's Game got nominated), but the fifth spot has never really been clarified. Critics's Choice went with Wonder; WGA took Logan; BAFTA muddied things with The Death of Stalin (which doesn't qualify, as it hasn't been released in the U.S. yet), Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool (qualifies) and Paddington 2 (just released in the U.S.). Also in contention are Blade Runner 2049 (which had an excellent showing at BAFTA), The Beguiled (which could benefit from an increased focus on women this year), Victoria & Abdul and Wonder Woman. Of all of these, WGA seems the most credible indicator, so I'm taking Logan in a squeaker, though I fully expect to be wrong.Other Possibilities
6.
Hasn't gotten any love thus far, but all of the love it got from the British Academy has me wondering if it can sneak in here. It was certainly a well-received film, but not one that got as much notice as expected. Ultimately, I just don't think it has the momentum to really pull it off, but it wouldn't necessarily surprise me. 7.
The BAFTA nod puts it into contention. Had it had more of a presence in the states, I would probably dive in for this one, but I'm assuming that the BAFTA nomination was simply the Brits voting for one of their own films. 8.
Was a big hit critically and commercially, and it scored a surprise nod at the Critic's Choice awards. The Critics' Choice nod, while helpful for momentum, isn't really indicative of overall support though, and voters could turn their noses up at such a "slight" film. The views it's getting for makeup will be helpful, but I'm not too convinced that it can charm its way in (though, again, I wouldn't be too surprised). 9.
If Wonder Woman gets in here, it's probably pulling off a Best Picture stunner. I'm just not too convinced; had it pulled of a WGA nod, then I would've likely taken it, but it just doesn't have too much heat. 10.
11.
BradWesley123's rating:
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Best Original Screenplay
242
7.3
7.5
The Big Sick (2017)
1.
A lock, if not the favorite.2.
Lock; could easily win.3.
Lock; could easily win.4.
Not quite a lock, but looking pretty damn strong. 5.
Three movies are duking it out for #5 (because the top four look pretty safe), and they've all got strong narratives. The Post is a major BP contender (likely not a real winning contender, but a lock for a nomination), but it missed a WGA nomination, not just to The Big Sick, which was expected to get nominated (because Three Billboards was ineligible), but the surprisingly durable I, Tonya, which also scored a BAFTA nod. Any of these three could get in, but my gut says it's The Big Sick; it's been in the game since the beginning, and the real-life uplifting story is sure to win over many voters (unless, of course, voters find I, Tonya uplifting.Other Possibilities
6.
Despite the WGA setback, which could be explained by the lateness of the release, The Post has a very strong shot. It's a big story that's relevant today, both for it's trumpeting of the role of a free press and it's feminist message. 7.
I, Tonya has proven incredibly durable over the course of the season, and the film scored both a BAFTA and WGA nomination; i.e. broad support. Still, the above six are so powerful that I'm not sure the late-breaking momentum will be enough to overcome. Or, I'm undervaluing this thing.
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Best Animated Feature
769
7.4
8.4
Coco (2017)
1.
The winner.2.
Locked in.3.
Looking pretty safe.4.
Not totally safe, but it's been doing pretty strongly with the guilds. They have snubbed the Lego franchise before, so don't be surprised to see it happen again.5.
The Boss Baby has done surprisingly well with precursor awards, and is looking like a real contender. The reviews were mixed, but the film did exceptionally at the box office, and this category was opened up to wide voting this year (before, it was just the animation branch that voted); i.e. the public liked the movie, so it's probably a strong bet. Other Possibilities
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
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Best Foreign Language Film
120
6.7
7.2
A Fantastic Woman (2017)
1.
Since BPM got snubbed from the shortlist, The Square is probably the frontrunner.2.
3.
4.
5.
Other Possibilities
6.
7.
8.
9.
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Best Documentary
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Best Cinematography
115
7.2
7.4
Mudbound (2003)
1.
Still the presumptive frontrunner.2.
Lock.3.
Lock.4.
Scored an ASC nod, and is looking like a strong bet to become the first woman nominated for Best Cinematography. While no lock, it would be a bit surprising to see her miss in a year where women's work will be front and center.5.
ASC and BAFTA nominee; Delbonnel is a multiple-time nominee with a movie that's got support from two major voting branches. Trouble is, there's another movie that looks like a strong contender, and Darkest Hour's momentum has been waning. I'm still assuming he gets in, but he's no lock. Other Possibilities
6.
Hasn't scored any major nods beyond a Critics' Choice one, but Mukdeeprom's work is still a solid contender. 7.
Highly unlikely, but the BAFTA nod does put it in contention. It's usually the most eye-catching work that gets recognized here and, while still strong work, it really can't compete with the six above.
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Best Original Song
484
7.8
7.8
Call Me by Your Name (2017)
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Other Possibilities
6."Mighty River"- Mudbound
7."Stand Up for Something"- Marshall
8."Prayers for This World"- Cries from Syria
9."I Don't Wanna Live Forever"- Fifty Shades Darker
10."Visions of Gideon"- Call Me by Your Name
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Best Original Score
299
6.8
7.2
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Other Possibilities
6. Benjamin Wallfisch and Hans Zimmer- Blade Runner 2049
7. John Williams- Star Wars: The Last Jedi
8. Carter Burwell- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
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Best Costume Design
725
6
7.1
Beauty and the Beast (2017)
1.
It's really going to come down to this and Beauty and the Beast, and this is the "artsier" of the two. Plus, this film centering on a fashion designer allows for both the actual costumes and a probing of the craft of making them. The early frontrunner.2.
Lock.3.
Not a total lock, but the period setting and the film's overall love should propel this into the final five.4.
The same reasoning I had from the last list still applies here. The first three are pretty much the consensus three, with a lot of split about four and five. Usually, it's the most stylish and flamboyant of the bunch, and Byrne's work is likely that. Plus, as previously mentioned, this time period works like gangbusters. No lock, but a CDG nod does give me some hope. 5.
I just think Wonder Woman was too major of a 2017 touchstone to neglect completely; while I don't see it scoring any top nominations, it may sneak into a few down-the-line categories. Of those, costume design seems the most likely. Hemming's work blends fantasy and period costuming flawlessly, and her version of the Wonder Woman costume was instantly iconic. Scored CDG and Critics' Choice nominations, so not a total longshot, but the competition is stiff.Other Possibilities
6.
Durran could score double nominations for her work this year, but her work for Darkest Hour isn't particularly "big"; i.e. could get passed over for more flamboyant costuming. Nominated for the BAFTA award, but missed out on Critics' Choice and CDG nominations. A strong contender, but I think the others may prove to alluring for voters.7.
With a CDG nod and, pretty stunningly, a BAFTA nod to boot, Johnson's work on I, Tonya is a legitimate contender. If the film ends up hitting harder than expected (and it damn well could), then it may surprise. 8.
CDG nominee, but the film doesn't seem to have much juice beyond its songs.9.
CDG and Critics' Choice nominee; bit of a longshot, but not implausible. 10.
Missed out on every major costume design precursor; not an impossible omen to overcome, but I difficult one to overcome (if it couldn't even snag a nod from BAFTA, I don't see it happening).
BradWesley123's rating:
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Best Production Design
985
7.8
8
1.
The favorite.2.
Closest competitor.3.
Not quite a lock, but Crowley's work with Nolan has netted him three previous nominations, and it's been nominated everywhere it needs to. 4.
ADG and BAFTA nominee; Greenwood and Spencer have two shots for a nomination here; this and Beauty and the Beast. While Beauty and the Beast features a lot of strong work, I think it'll end up being a bit to gaudy for academy tastes, and they'll go for the more stately historical recreations. 5.
The number #5 spot could go to any of about a dozen films, but my gut keeps telling me that we're going to see a real surprise here, and Orient Express certainly checks that box (despite Critics' Choice and ADG nominations). Other Possibilities
6.
BAFTA, ADG and Critics' Choice nominee, but my reservations are voiced clearly on #4. Now, watch me be wrong.7.
ADG nominee; while The Post is one of Spielberg's less flashily-designed period pieces, his films have a long history of making the cut here. Would not be too surprised to see this here.8.
Only present at the Critics' Choice awards, it looks like Phantom Thread may just be a player (visually, that is) for costumes.9.
ADG nominee; the Themyscira designs, aided by WWI ones too, may propel this one into the pack. It's a longshot though.10.
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Best Film Editing
782
7
7.3
1. Lee Smith- Dunkirk
2. Sidney Wolinsky- The Shape of Water
3. Jonathan Amos & Paul Machliss- Baby Driver
4. Gregory Plotkin- Get Out
5. Jon Gregory- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Dunkirk and The Shape of Water are lock; Baby Driver and Get Out look like strong bets (especially the former); #5 comes down to Blade Runner 2049, The Post, and Three Billboards. While Walker's work was likely the more difficult and The Post is going to be a Best Picture nominee, Three Billboards is a legitimate contender for BP, and it follows that if you're the best picture, you're likely one of the best edited too.
Other Possibilities
6. Michael Kahn and Sarah Broshar- The Post
7. Joe Walker- Blade Runner 2049
8. Tatiana Riegel- I, Tonya
2. Sidney Wolinsky- The Shape of Water
3. Jonathan Amos & Paul Machliss- Baby Driver
4. Gregory Plotkin- Get Out
5. Jon Gregory- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Dunkirk and The Shape of Water are lock; Baby Driver and Get Out look like strong bets (especially the former); #5 comes down to Blade Runner 2049, The Post, and Three Billboards. While Walker's work was likely the more difficult and The Post is going to be a Best Picture nominee, Three Billboards is a legitimate contender for BP, and it follows that if you're the best picture, you're likely one of the best edited too.
6. Michael Kahn and Sarah Broshar- The Post
7. Joe Walker- Blade Runner 2049
8. Tatiana Riegel- I, Tonya
BradWesley123's rating:
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Best Sound Editing
838
7.2
7.6
1. Dunkirk
2. Blade Runner 2049
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
4. Baby Driver
5. Wonder Woman
Other Possibilities
6. The Shape of Water
7. War for the Planet of the Apes
8. Get Out
9. Only the Brave
10. Logan
2. Blade Runner 2049
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
4. Baby Driver
5. Wonder Woman
6. The Shape of Water
7. War for the Planet of the Apes
8. Get Out
9. Only the Brave
10. Logan
BradWesley123's rating:
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Best Sound Mixing
980
6.3
6.9
1. Dunkirk
2. Blade Runner 2049
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
4. Baby Driver
5. The Shape of Water
Other Possibilities
6. War for the Planet of the Apes
7. Wonder Woman
8. Get Out
9. The Post
10. The Greatest Showman
2. Blade Runner 2049
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
4. Baby Driver
5. The Shape of Water
6. War for the Planet of the Apes
7. Wonder Woman
8. Get Out
9. The Post
10. The Greatest Showman
BradWesley123's rating:
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Best Makeup & Hairstyling
1097
7.2
7.6
1.
The winner.2.
There's usually at least one sci-fi/fantasy film here, and with The Shape of Water failing to get shortlisted, Guardians is probably the next best. Makeup is always a wonky category, but I feel a bit safer with this pick. 3.
I, Tonya is on a wave right now and, while I don't quite see it pulling a BP nod off, I think it'll play well here. It isn't the most makeup heavy, but I really goes in on the "Hairstyling" part of the category. Not a lock (nothing beyond #1 is), but a strong contender.Other Possibilities
4.
Got horrible reviews, but it's got the same team as last year's winner (Suicide Squad) and the makeup here is, admittedly, impressive. My thinking is that they would rather have a good movie win this year, and good films nominated. 5.
A crowdpleaser that scored Critics' Choice and BAFTA nominations. Could definitely make the cut. 6.
7.
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Best Visual Effects
493
6.8
7.4
1.
Lock.2.
Another lock.3.
4.
Not a lock, but love for the film will likely propel this one.5.
The film was a bomb, with very mixed reviews, but this category loves a surprise, and Valerian certainly counts as one. It'll likely be Dunkirk, but it would be outlier year for the Oscars and BAFTAs to match 100% (which it would if Dunkirk gets nominated). Valerian's got a lot of work, and the visual effects are better than the film itself. Don't count it out.Other Possibilities
6.
I think it'll be labeled too practical. 7.
8.
9.
10.
BradWesley123's rating:
Dunkirk: 8
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri: 6
Blade Runner 2049: 5
Call Me by Your Name: 5
Darkest Hour: 5
I, Tonya: 5
Lady Bird: 5
Get Out: 4
The Post: 4
Baby Driver: 3
The Big Sick: 3
Mudbound: 3
Phantom Thread: 3
Star Wars: The Last Jedi: 3
Beauty and the Beast
Coco: 2
The Disaster Artist: 2
Murder on the Orient Express: 2
Wonder Woman: 2
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