Preliminary 2018 Academy Awards Predictions

1.

A hit dramatic-romance about showbiz, a directorial debut from a multi-nominated actor, a powerful new take on a classic story; it may be too early to say that it's the presumptive favorite (this isn't the most dynamic of fields), but A Star Is Born is a bona fide contender for Oscars across the board.

2.

A sweeping, foreign-language period drama from a multi-winner, Roma looks to help Netflix finally break through to the Best Picture category, if not win it outright. Alfonso Cuarón's first film since he won for Directing, and Editing, Gravity five years ago was hailed out of Cannes, and is possibly the best reviewed film of the year. While being in a foreign-language, Spanish, may hinder the broad appeal it'll need to possibly win (voters will likely gravitate towards film's in their native tongue), I can't imagine that it doesn't get nominated, and contend for top prize.

3.

While there is absolutely no way that it could win with the modern voting body, Green Book is the type of old-school "issue" movie that used to be the Academy's bread and butter. That throwback appeal, it's crowdpleasing story, and an older voting body will, likely, but this one in the top category (though I wouldn't exactly rule out this one being overly-hyped; is it too old-fashioned?).

4.

While it's not quite of the usual brand, it's too original for that, The Favourite will, likely, occupy the Academy's designated British-movie slot, as well as appeal to modernist, auteur voters who like odd, singular films. Probably not winning, but weirder things have happened.

5.

It probably would be a stronger contender if it came out later, but BlackkKlansman still appears to have a strong shot for a BP nomination. After surprisingly strong showings at the Golden Globes and, more crucially, the SAG awards, it appears to be inching closer and closer to lock status.

6.

The last time that Adam McKay shed his absurdist comedic roots for a more dramatic filmmaking style, his The Big Short crashed the Oscar party, and came damn close to taking the top prize (it won the PGA award). Could Vice provide a similar effect? With the film scoring the most Golden Globe nominations overall, it looks like it certainly might (only twice in the past 20 years has the film with the most Globe nominations not been nominated here). Led at the Globes, and did well at the Critics' Choice Awards and SAG Awards (though it did miss a crucial ensemble nod); likely in.

7.

After several films fell by the wayside, either critically or commercially, films that have been present since the beginning of the year have started to re-emerge. Of that bunch, none stick out more than Black Panther; it was the biggest movie of the year, a critical smash, and one of the most important films in film history (for it's vital representation). After scoring big at the Globes, Critics' Choice Awards, and possibly even being the frontrunner at the SAGs, it's all but assured to make the cut.

8.

While it isn't getting the rapturous response that Barry Jenkins' last BP winner (Moonlight), If Beale Street Could Talk is getting exceptional reviews, and has the same team behind it as his last winner. It's hard to say that it hasn't fallen off a bit, though; it missed the boat completely at SAG (not even scoring a nod for the early runaway frontrunner for supporting actress Regina King). That said, I still feel that it's got too great of reviews and pedigree not to make the cut; not winning, but probably in (if it misses a PGA nod though, it may be time ring the alarm bells).

9.

The last blockbuster here is the one still unseen, but one that could pack a wallop. Is it likely to match that film's whopping 13 nominations? Not at all. But could it sneak into a thinning field, and score a bundle of tech nods along the way? I think so. Momentum is always a strong factor with these awards, and Poppins has certainly been building that lately, with critical showings at the Globes, Critics' Choice, and SAG Awards (where lead Emily Blunt scored in a tough field). It might be tough for Disney to swing two BP nods, especially since Black Panther is likely the primary campaign, but chances are looking very good at the moment.

Other Possibilities

10.

After a what-the-fuck? ensemble nomination at the SAG awards, and a likely solid showing at the BAFTAs, Bohemian Rhapsody has, inexplicably, catapulted itself into the BP race. While it still doesn't quite feel like it'll make the cut, that may just be the shock though, if it can land a Best Film nomination at the BAFTAs and/or a PGA nod, then it'll be a hard film to bet against. The biggest hurdle the film will have to overcome is simple though; which movie above does it overtake. Maybe Mary Poppins, but it's a Disney mandated-hit. if it takes the spot of If Beale Street Could Talk, with Bryan Singer's name attached to it no less, expect some extreme backlash. Being a box office hit, and the kind of mixed-package crowdpleaser that has done well here before (think The Blind Side almost a decade ago) will help it's chances, but it still doesn't quite look like it'll be in.

11.

No movie's chances have been crippled by poor box office more than First Man. Originally, the movie was expected to be a major contender, but weak box office and a generally apathy towards the film derailed it's golden dreams. While it's possible that the film could end up making the cut (the pedigree is off the charts here), it doesn't seem to be inspiring a lot of passion from critics either. People loved and respected Whiplash and La La Land; they just respect First Man.

12.

After those first eleven (with even First Man still having a solid shot), the field becomes rather wonky. There aren't really any that pop off the page as BP contenders. That said, there is almost always at least one movie that comes out of nowhere to make the final eight or nine. Who could it be this year? One of the names that is floating out there is Can You Ever Forgive Me?. It's getting excellent reviews, and has slowly been gaining in notoriety. While the box office has been sluggish, that's not exactly a knock for a smaller film. If it has a slow but sure gain in nods throughout the season, it could be a sleeper.

13.

Weak box office streaks again. While it still certainly has a shot, the names behind this are too big to completely miss, Widows appears to have fallen off considerably in the last few weeks. Counter that with several late breaking films catching fire, and things just don't look to good for this one.

14.

While not the cultural touchstone that Black Panther was, A Quiet Place was a sensation that hit the lexicon running. With so few late-year movies really popping, could the acclaimed thriller make it. It's a longshot, certainly, but last year's win for Get Out, and the Academy's yearning for hit films to nominate, could make this one a bit more than a below-the-line player.

15.

Another of the potential popular nominees, Crazy Rich Asians was both a critical and commercial success, as well as being a major landmark for Asian-representation onscreen (a sibling to this year's Black Panther, in that regard). While I'm not sure that it'll compete with the other two blockbuster's heft (many voters will see it as "just" a good studio romantic comedy), it's certainly crowdpleasing enough that it could sway a few bored voters.

1.

Alfonso Cuarón- RomaWhile BP looks, a bit, like a dogfight, Director appears to have Cuarón in the driver's seat. His autobiographical, black-and-white Mexican epic has the director going full-auteur, a designation that'll score him respect and admiration from both the director's branch that he needs to score a nomination, and the filmmaking community in general. Not a lock to win (that Netflix label will, still, taint the film for some voters), but the early favorite.

2.

Bradley Cooper- A Star Is BornLikely locked-in, and could even contend for the prize. While there is a, slight, worry that he'll get Affleck-ed (actor-director un-nominated for the eventual BP winner), it's unlikely, and you'll likely see him pop up here throughout the season.

3.

Spike Lee- BlacKKKlansmanLee's filmmaking style be a bit hit-or-miss, but it is always, unmistakably, his style. With BlacKKKlansman, he takes that style and crafts a crackling, urgent film that explores the deep-seeded racism in American. Things get a bit murky after #1 and #2, but the story is so vital, and the film such a success, that it would be somewhat surprising to see him miss out on what would be his first Best Director nomination.

4.

Yorgos Lanthimos- The FavouriteBest Director is a category designed, primarily, for auteurs and auteur-driven filmmaking, and Lanthimos and his film certainly fit the bill. The Favourite will be a major player this season, and the director's signature style is one of the biggest reasons for that. Not quite a lock just yet, but he looks like a strong player.

5.

Barry Jenkins- If Beale Street Could TalkNumbers #1-4 look pretty strong, but #5 presents a mess of genuine contenders, who've either won or been nominated here before. If First Man hadn't imploded, I'd expect to see Damien Chazelle in here, for what is an immaculately crafted film. Vice's Adam McKay could definitely see himself score his second straight for his Dick Cheney biopic. Of the remaining bunch though, my gut's telling me that Jenkins will squeak out his second straight nod here. Beale Street isn't gonna win that many, if any, awards come Oscar Sunday, but's a film that garners such praise and respect that I expect it to show up in several categories. The same can be said of Jenkins, who's one of the most respected newcomers around. It's close, but I think, for the moment, that he's in, and this is one of the most diverse field of Directing nominees in history.

Other Possibilities

6.

Adam McKay- ViceFew expected him to score a directing nod last time, but the filmmaker has shown a knack for making films that elicit strong reactions, and lasting impacts. If Vice becomes a genuine contender (and in a year as up in the air as this one, it might), then he'll definitely make the cut. At the moment, I think the field is a bit too strong (much stronger than 2015 roster that he managed to become a strong contender), and I can't quite see which of the above five gets left out in favor of him.

7.

Damien Chazelle- First ManAs mentioned previously, First Man has truly fallen off in the last month, and that's going to effect it's chance everywhere in the top categories (it should still do well in below-the-line fields). Chazelle has a lot of respect though, and he's the youngest person to ever win this prize, so he's a name brand here. While I think the film has fallen just too far for him to make it in, I wouldn't be too surprised to see him make the cut and the film still miss BP; only once has that happened in 5+ nominee era, Bennett Miller for 2014's Foxcatcher. That film was as respected as this one, as well as a bit too cold to develop full support. I don't see it happening, but I've missed a lot over the years.

8.

Peter Farrelly- Green BookHis film is a contender, and he's making a big switch from gross-out comedies to sentimental race-dramedies; he's got a few things going for him. That said, the film isn't distinct enough, from a directorial standpoint, to truly compete with such unique filmmakers above. Has a solid shot, but is more likely to score in the writing department.

9.

Ryan Coogler- Black PantherWhile Panther has a solid shot of sneaking into BP, Coogler may have to sit out this time. The film has the auteur problem here; while it certainly has Coogler's style, many voters will see it as, merely, an MCU assembly-line production, and not give the director his do. Take that, and add it to a strong field like this one, and you've got a genuine longshot.

10.

Steve McQueen- Widows

1.

Bradley Cooper- A Star Is BornHe's been the favorite for a couple of months now, and this could be the best shot for the Academy to give him an individual award for a film that he could, possibly, score four nods for. There are some lingering threats coming on strong but, at the very least, he is guaranteed a nomination.

2.

Christian Bale- ViceBale was always gonna be a major contender for the prize, but the early word is that he's stellar enough to upend, what many thought, to be a showdown between Cooper and Mortensen. If the film hits big enough, there is a great chance that he could snag his second Oscar for this most recent physical transformation.

3.

Viggo Mortensen- Green BookDespite the N-Word controversy, though it wasn't particularly major, Mortensen should contend for his third nomination. His performance has garnered rave reviews, and he has a lot of respect in the filmmaking community. While I'm not sure he'll be able to pull out a win this year, Bale and Cooper are a hell of a combination, it would be surprising to see him miss a nod.

4.

Rami Malek- Bohemian RhapsodyWhile the film only score mixed reviews, Bohemian Rhapsody was a box office hit, and Malek's performance as Freddie Mercury had a lot to do with that. In fact, his work has propelled the movie to greater success; helping score the film a Golden Globe nod, and a stunning SAG ensemble nod. He's a lock for a nomination, and may be a sleeper contender for the win.

5.

Ethan Hawke- First ReformedAfter assuming that the film was too niche, and released too early, Hawke's career-best performance in First Reformed, and the film itself, has been picking up critic's awards left and right. That said, he missed some pretty big precursors, including a Golden Globe and SAG nomination. While I still think he'll have the critical indie-cred that'll score him a nomination, it's much closer than I previously expected.

Other Possibilities

6.

John David Washington- BlacKKKlansmanBlacKKKlansman overperformed with precursors, and that included Washington as well; scoring a Golden Globe nomination and, surprisingly, a SAG nod as well. While still not quite sure he can land in this category, there's no doubt that he's the next man up if Reformed does hit the requisite Academy boxes.

7.

Ryan Gosling- First ManAs the film has fallen off, so has Gosling's chances. While it's one of the actor's best, it's a, mostly, internal performance with only a few show-y, Oscar-bait moments. Playing a real-life character is always a plus, but too many other actors have the momentum that Gosling doesn't.

8.

Willem Dafoe- At Eternity's GateAfter those top six, the remaining contenders look less and less likely. Dafoe's probably got the best chance of the rest; he's a highly respected actor, playing a historical artist in a film nobody's heard of. Despite the praise, it still feels like a longshot.

9.

Robert Reford- The Old Man and the GunLooked like a real threat early, but once the retirement narrative was backed-off of, the movie hasn't really made much noise. His name recognition could him sneak a few nods in (a Critics' Choice nomination wouldn't be the biggest surprise), but Oscar seems like a longshot.

10.

Lucas Hedges- Boy Erased

1.

Lady Gaga- A Star Is BornBest Actress is just a murderers row of contenders this year, and Gaga appears to be part of a three-woman tie at the moment for frontrunner status. Considering her film appears to be the most beloved at the moment, I'm considering putting her in the top spot, at the moment.

2.

Olivia Colman- The FavouriteAnother of this category's triumvirate, Colman's performance in The Favourite is so strong that she's being positioned here over her more recognizable, Oscar-winning costars. In terms of precursors, she's probably taking the Comedy Golden Globe and, likely, the BAFTA; i.e. she's going to be a very strong contender here this season.

3.

Glenn Close- The WifeIf The Wife had any real buzz, Close would've had this in the bag already. As is, it's riding on her performance. She's overdue for this prize, and the Academy may take notice of that. Unfortunately for her, this category is absolutely brutal this year, and it may be hard for her to make any headway. It's a category where she could ride an overdue wave and win everything, or she could miss a nomination entirely in favor of a woman surging here. For now, she looks like a strong contender on her name alone; that could change though.

4.

Melissa McCarthy- Can You Ever Forgive Me?Outside of the top three, there aren't any surefire looks. McCarthy, however, does look pretty close; she's a comedic actress taking a rare dramatic role, in an indie darling, getting some of, if not the, best notices of her career. If she can hold onto her momentum, because there are some late-breaking contenders her, she'll score her second nomination.

5.

Emily Blunt- Mary Poppins ReturnsAfter scoring at all of the major awards bodies, especially taking the five spot at the SAGs (and a surprise supporting spot at the SAGs as well), Blunt appears to be a solid bet for the five spot. Not a lock but, with the film getting a lot of momentum right now, and likely the beginning of next year, she is certainly in the sun, so to speak.

Other Possibilities

6.

Yalitza Aparicio- RomaIf she'd made it in at the Globes, because I'm not sure she'd be eligible for SAG, then maybe I could go with her, but she missed there, and she's going up against a group with a lot of momentum at the moment. Still has a shot, but looking more and more like a long shot.

7.

Viola Davis- WidowsDavis is one of the most respected performers around, but Widows appears to be tracking downward, and this category is just too strong for any sign of weakness.

8.

Toni Collette- HereditaryWhile she scored exceptional reviews and the film had a solid impact, it appears that this year will just be too hard for her to make the cut.

1.

Amy Adams- ViceA lock for a nomination and, with King's SAG snub, the likely favorite to win her first, after six nominations.

2.

Regina King- If Beale Street Could TalkShe was chugging along just fine until that stunner of a SAG snub. I'm not exactly sure how the hell that happened, but it's certainly killed any momentum she had. While I do believe that she'll still pull out a nomination, and may even compete for the win (but she's has to win everything else, including a long shot BAFTA).

3.

Rachel Weisz- The Favourite#3 and #4 are pretty interchangeable at this point; I expect that both Weisz and Stone will both be nominated here. The film has been seen, by many, as a three woman co-lead picture, with categorization a bit mixed up. Weisz has won here before, and appears to have a little more buzz than her costar, but, again, both are so integral to the film's success that it be a surprise if either missed.

4.

Emma Stone- The FavouriteSee above.

5.

Margot Robbie- Mary Queen of ScotsAfter scoring little buzz beforehand, the SAG awards through out some real stunners here, including throwing Robbie into this race. Most had been waiting for her to enter it, but after missing at both the Globes and Critics' Choice Awards, many expected her to be out. With Foy's film having a weird run (10 Critics' Choice nominations, then nothing but a couple of Golden Globe noms), Kidman not performing the way many expected, and Blunt more likely to score in the lead category, Robbie has emerged as a surprising, yet viable, candidate here. With the BAFTAs likely to give her more momentum, this could the most last-minute contender this year.

Other Possibilities

6.

Claire Foy- First ManAfter the SAG miss, and First Man's odd awards season performance, I just can't pull the trigger here. She's still got a strong shot, but I'm guessing that the Academy leans towards more showy performances.

7.

Emily Blunt- A Quiet PlaceThe out-of-nowhere SAG nod beefed up her chances, but my gut says that she'll be a stronger candidate above; i.e. while she really seems to be coming out strong, I can't see her scoring two nods (though it's not out of the question).

8.

Nicole Kidman- Boy Erased

9.

Marina de Tavira- Roma

10.

Michelle Yeoh- Crazy Rich Asians

1.

Mahershala Ali- Green BookToo wonky a category to call him the runaway favorite, but Ali is certainly the frontrunner here, potentially winning his second Oscar in three awards seasons.

2.

Richard E. Grant- Can You Ever Forgive Me?Not quite a lock, but he's been picking up some of the best notices of his career for the film, with many saying he steals the film from his potentially nominated costar. Could contend for the prize, as he'll likely have major British support (I'd say he can start writing his BAFTA speech).

3.

Sam Elliot- A Star Is BornLocked for a nomination, though he may not have been onscreen enough to take the win (certainly hurt him at the Globes).

4.

Adam Driver- BlacKKKlansmanAfter flying fairly under the radar, Driver scored big nods everywhere he needed to, crucially at the SAG awards, and BlacKKKlansman has overperformed everywhere. He looks like a strong bet.

5.

Timothée Chalamet- Beautiful BoyIf Beautiful Boy had more buzz behind it, Chalamet would probably be the favorite here. He's likely in, his performance has been praised and he's a breakout star, but he's not a lock; there are just too many potential nominees from films with more buzz. That said, he's been nominated everywhere he needs to be, and this is the kind of role that begs for Oscars.

Other Possibilities

6.

Michael B. Jordan- Black PantherWhile the film will, likely, be able to breakthrough to a BP nomination, I'm not sure that the academy will be willing to toss an acting nomination. Jordan is, unquestionably, the only legitimate Panther contender for acting; his raw, powerful performance is one of the best in comic book film history, one that thrust him into this race early in the year. That said, only once has a comic book film scored an acting nod (not counting William Hurt for A History of Violence, which was both a graphic novel adaptation, and bears little resemblance to the source material), and, with their frugality, one has to wonder whether Heath Ledger's Oscar wasn't, in some way, effected by his death; he deserved, but would the Academy have felt that way if his life hadn't been so clearly impacted by his performance? That's a long way of saying that I'm not sure that Jordan's performance in a comic book adaptation will meet the Academy's more snobbish tastes. He does have a very strong shot though, as long as he gets a solid push.

7.

Sam Rockwell- ViceHe's still, likely, got a lot of residual respect from his win here last year (the Globe nod shows that), but this is a tough category to break through with a, reportedly, caricatured, mostly comedic performance. He'll definitely be in the hunt though (he does, reportedly, steal every scene he's in).

8.

Steve Carell- ViceHe needed to pick up some sort of precursor to be seen as a legitimate prospect here, but never did. While that doesn't necessarily kill his chances (actors have popped up here without precursors before), it appears that he'll be passed over.

1.

Charlie Wachtel & David Rabinowitz and Spike Lee & Kevin Willmott- BlacKKKlansmanThe film's balance of tones and storytelling, as well as it's timeliness and vitality, make BlacKKKlansman the early favorite here. It missed at the Golden Globes, but so did last year's winner in this category (Call Me By Your Name); i.e. it's early.

2.

Barry Jenkins- If Beale Street Could TalkCould Jenkins take his second win here? His poetic screenplay adaptation has scored rave reviews, and have easily placed him here. Not so much a question of whether he'll be nominated, but whether he'll win.

3.

Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty- Can You Ever Forgive Me?Along with the performances, Holofcener and Whitty's script has likely been the most praised aspect of the film. Not quite a lock here, there are a few BP contenders that could usurp it if they gain momentum, but it's a script about writing; they do quite well here.

4.

Bradley Cooper, Will Feters, and Eric Roth- A Star Is BornIf there's one main category that could slip up the Star Is Born freight train, it'll be screenplay. While it's still likely to get in, this category has grown surprisingly thin, it's the one aspect of the film that wasn't particularly praised. Likely in, but no lock.

5.

Joe Robert Cole and Ryan Coogler- Black PantherThe #5 spot this year seems pretty wide open. First Man could've been here, but it both faltered come award-season, and was more a directorial showcase than a storytelling on. Widows could still get in, but that film seems to have also hit a snag with awards, and also proved to be more or a director's film (though the script had more crackle than First Man's did). Then there's several smaller, critically acclaimed films that could snag a spot; my gut says The Death of StalinBoy Erased, or even Leave No Trace could stun (Stalin already scored a BAFTA nod last year). As of right now, however, I think this will be another major category where Black Panther benefits from a thinning field. While the script was one of the least praised aspects of the film, the film itself is gaining momentum, BP nominees always do well in screenplay categories, and having Coogler's name on it, the director, will certainly sway voters who want to give the filmmaker some love (even if they aren't quite willing to go for him in Best Director). A wonky field, but if Panther can score a WGA nod, I'm willing to feel confidence here (if not, it won't be getting nominated).

Other Possibilities

6.

Gillian Flynn and Steve McQueen- WidowsThere are some great moments in Widows that are wholly from the screenwriting, and some superb dialogue, but the momentum is dying here. McQueen and Flynn are respected figures (a nomination for Flynn could even rectify her glaring snub a few years ago for Gone Girl) that could certainly get in on their name recognition, but I'm just not sure it'll be enough this year.

7.

Josh Singer- First Man

8.

Armando Iannucci, David Schneider, Ian Martin and Peter Fellows- The Death of Stalin

9.

Joel Edgerton- Boy Erased

10.

Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini- Leave No Trace

1.

Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara- The FavouriteSparing a pun here, Davis and McNamara's witty and freewheeling script is in the top spot, for the moment.

2.

Alfonso Cuarón- RomaLocked in for a nomination, could contend for the prize (it'll need it to win BP).

3.

Adam McKay- ViceNot quite a lock just yet, but the last time McKay wrote a script he won an Oscar. With Vice catching heat at just the right time, I expect to see McKay back in the race.

4.

Nick Vallelonga, Brian Hayes Currie and Peter Farrelly- Green BookWhile many would consider it a lock, I'm not quite ready to go that far. Don't get me wrong, it's probably in, but there are a few more auteur-driven screenplays that could usurp this one, especially if voters buckle at some of the film's race lessons. Then again, if the similarly-themed Hidden Figures could get a screenplay nod a few years back, I don't think there'll be any legitimate backlash here.

5.

Paul Schrader- First ReformedWith #1-4 seeming pretty damn solid at the moment, though #3 and #4 are less so than the top two, #5 looks to be a knife fight between a legendary screenwriter and an acclaimed first timer. Bo Burnham's debut was a deft and exceedingly credible portrait of modern youth; a truly genuine and empathetic work. If this was a weaker year, he'd likely have a shot at winning the award; unfortunately this is a surprisingly strong lot, and Schrader has more momentum. He's been picking up awards left and right, and the fact that the film has other nomination prospects (Best Actor is certainly on the table) means that it'll get more views as a result. Also of note is the fact that Schrader, the man who wrote Raging Bull and Taxi Driver, has never been nominated before; i.e. he's due, and Burnham will be a contender again.

Other Possibilities

6.

Bo Burnham- Eighth GradeAgain though, Eighth Grade's got a hell of a perceptive script. While I laid Reformed's pluses pretty thick above, this one's a squeaker, and I could easily see Burnham take the fifth spot, or even knock off the third or fourth pick.

7.

Scott Beck & Bryan Woods and John Krasinski- A Quiet PlaceProbably the only film outside the above six with an even slight shot, A Quiet Place was a critically acclaimed hit, and some voters may want to throw it a bone and give it something more that a few craft nominations. That said, the script was really one of the few areas that didn't garner widespread acclaim, relying more on directorial touches than writerly ones.

1.

Not a lock for a win, but the movie was a monster hit from Pixar; at the very least, it'll be nominated.

2.

Locked for a nomination, could contend for the prize.

3.

A late-breaking contender with stellar reviews and healthy box office. It's catching momentum at just the right time, and could surprise with a victory here.

4.

Not a lock, but the reviews and box office were strong enough to instill enough confidence in predicting a nomination.

5.

The reviews for Mirai are exceptional and, historically, there's usually one foreign animated film here. That said, the new voting system here (everybody votes for nominations, unlike animators voting previously) likely means that more noticeable, name-brand U.S. hits make the cut (see: The Boss Baby). I still think it make it in, but don't be surprised if some voters just check a box because they recognize a big title.

Other Possibilities

6.

The Grinch didn't get very good reviews, but the title is recognizable, and that may be all that less caring voters will need to vote for it.

7.

8.

1.

The winner.

2.

Pawel Pawlikowski's last film, Ida, won this category, and pulled off the rare feat, for a foreign film, of scoring an additional nomination. He could do the same this year, with another black-and-white box-screen presentation. Not a lock, this category is always wonky, but one of the safer bets of the bunch.

3.

4.

5.

Other Possibilities

6.

7.

8.

9.

10.

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

Other Possibilities

6.

7.

8.

9.

10.

1.

Alfonso Cuarón- RomaThe Academy usually goes nuts for modern Black-and-White cinematography, and it looks like Cuarón's crisp work on Roma will continue that trend. In a year with few clear frontrunners in many categories, this looks to be one of the rare ones.

2.

Robbie Ryan- The FavouriteRyan's use of natural light and shooting on film combined with director Yorgos Lanthimos's deliberate choice of angles and framing has made The Favourite one of the most uniquely and strikingly shot films of the year. Could contend for the top prize; at the very least, a lock for a nomination.

3.

James Laxton- If Beale Street Could TalkJames Laxton and Barry Jenkins latest collaboration continues their trend of brilliantly shot films. Beale Street's swooping, gorgeous shots are truly romantic, and expertly illustrate the film's poetic storytelling. Not quite a lock, but a very strong contender.

4.

Linus Sandgren- First ManWhile it certainly has it's detractors, many of whom take issue with the camera's constant movement and harsh grain, Sandgren's work also has a lot of respect for it's recreation of the 1960's space program, harshness and all. First Man will have issues making the cut in the major categories, but should be able to score in many craft ones; people don't necessarily like the work here, but they'll admire the effort enough to nominate it here. Not quite safe yet, but looking solid enough.

5.

Łukasz Żal- Cold WarThere are about three films going for this fifth spot, each with a solid amount of momentum. Libatique's work on A Star Is Born doesn't seem that extraordinary on the surface, but his vérité style and gritty lighting, emphasizing colors like harsh reds, often make the film resemble something close to a modern take on a 1970s flick, fueling many of the film's charms. Rachel Morrison's work, too, is a major standout; instead of the bland, silvery-hued looks that the MCU had produced up to that point, Panther had some genuine color that captured the artistry that's often taken for granted in these (comic-book) films. Both have their admirers, but my gut is leaning towards another returning former nominee; Żal surprised many with his nomination for his last collaboration with Pawel Pawlikowski, Ida, and he follows in that film's Black-and-White, 1.37 framing. While it rarely wins, modern Black-and-White usually goes over like gangbusters here and, though Roma is the main contender this time, I think that classicism on the Academy's part will likely score him his second nod.

Other Possibilities

6.

Matthew Libatique- A Star Is Born

7.

Rachel Morrison- Black Panther

8.

Dion Beebe- Mary Poppins Returns

1.

"Shallow"- A Star Is BornThe early runaway favorite to take the prize.

2.

"All the Stars"- Black PantherScored all the precursor nominations it needs, was a hit radio track, and is the main contender from a likely BP nominee; nothing after #1 is a total lock, but this is certainly close to it.

3.

"The Place Where the Lost Things Go"- Mary Poppins Returns
At least one of the songs from Mary Poppins Returns are getting in here, but the question remains as to which one (if not both). "Trip a Little Light Fantastic" is the bigger, more produced of the bunch, ready-made for an Oscar night performance. Over the past decade or so though, the Academy has been going for the deeper, more emotional songs, and "Lost Things" is clearly that, of the two.

4.

"I'll Fight"- RBG
A ballad for a documentary about Ruth Bader Ginsburg, written by perennial nominee Diane Warren; a genuine contender for a nomination.

5.

"Girl in the Movies"- Dumplin'There are several major contenders for the fifth spot, and every other (this category rarely goes the way it's expected to), but when in doubt, go with Dolly. "Girl in the Movies" is the type of song that scores an Oscar nod; features a legendary singer/songwriter, ballad-y, and features and aspiration theme. Scored both at the Globes and Critics' Choice Awards; different voting bodies, but it certainly gives it momentum.

Other Possibilities

6."Revelation"- Boy Erased
7."Trip a Little Light Fantastic"- Mary Poppins Returns
8."Requiem for a Private War"- A Private War
9."Gravity"- Free Solo
10."Ashes"- Deadpool 2

1.

Nicholas Britell- If Beale Street Could TalkDespite the weird Golden Globe snub, I still expect to see Britell's score in the final five, if not win the thing outright (the track above is probably one of the most beautiful to grace the silver screen ever).

2.

Justin Hurwitz- First ManDespite the apathy for the film, Hurwitz's score should have no problem making the cut, potentially netting him his second Oscar.

3.

Marc Shaiman- Mary Poppins ReturnsWhether or not it gets thrown out for hewing too closely to the original is something I cannot speak of with any clarity, but Shaiman's work on Poppins has been scoring nods left and right, and many believe that it outshines many of the new original songs. Not quite a lock, but looking very strong at the moment.

4.

Ludwig Göransson- Black PantherDespite nominations from the Golden Globes and Critics' Choice Awards, Göransson's acclaimed score isn't a lock. There are several solid contenders for the fourth and fifth spots (or even #3-5), and comic book movies, as in most categories, are running uphill. Only once has a comic book adaptation been nominated here, and that was 40 years ago (John Williams for Superman). While it does appear that Black Panther will be breaking through several hurdles this year, it'll be tougher here, where it'll be going up against several established, previously nominated contender. Still, I think it's got the momentum to make the cut.

5.

Terence Blanchard- BlacKKKlansmanProbably the biggest leap of the category, but the Globes and Critics rarely go five for five, and Blanchard's infusing of classical music styles with a hip-hop/rock does some great stuff in the film, especially in highlighting the film's gut-punch of an ending. Add to that the film's momentum, and it certainly looks like a real contender.

Other Possibilities

6. Alexandre Desplat- Isle of Dogs
7. Marco Beltrami- A Quiet Place
8. Kris Bowers- Green Book
9. Nicholas Britell- Vice
10. Max Richter- Mary Queen of Scots

1.

Sandy Powell- The FavouriteLock; potentially the winner.

2.

Ruth E. Carter- Black PantherLocked for a nomination, and may even take the trophy.

3.

Sandy Powell- Mary Poppins ReturnsAnother locked-in nod for Powell this year; could she end up cancelling herself out? Panther fans certainly hope so.

4.

Mary E. Vogt- Crazy Rich AsiansAfter the first three, things get a bit murky. There are about seven or eight real contender looking to fill two spots. Conventional wisdom says that smart betting should be on period dramas, and maybe a fantasy flick; since 2000, only four contemporary films have been nominated here (and that's stretching to include 2006's 1990s-era The Queen. With all of that in mind, however, my gut is telling me that the flamboyant, diverse costumes of Crazy Rich Asians will score a nomination. Asian-themed costumes have always had a niche with the Academy, and Vogt's work here luxuriates in the region, filling the screen with a litany of glamorous outfits. Plus, this could be one of the few chances to get the movie nominated, something the Academy will want to promote. Probably wrong, but it's a early gut reaction.

5.

Alexandra Byrne- Mary Queen of ScotsI'll go the expected route with Byrne for my #5 spot. There are about four movies gunning for the last two spots. I've explained, at great length, my Crazy Rich Asians hunch at #4, leaving, to my mind, three movies fighting for the last spot (maybe even four); Bohemian Rhapsody, Fantastic Beasts 2, and Mary Queen of Scots. Of the bunch, Mary is the most traditional pick, the one that'll likely unite both American and British voting bodies. It doesn't hurt that Bryne is an Academy favorite, operating within her lane; she won for 2007's Elizabeth: The Golden Age which chronicles the same monarch's tenure (she was also nominated for Elizabeth in 1998, chronicling the same period). Beasts has the era down, and Colleen Atwood has four Oscars to her name, but the fact that the original won this category just two years ago and only six sequels have ever been nominated here (of those, only three were direct sequels) gives me pause. Rhapsody did score a critic's choice nod, but they rarely sync up five-for-five (take out Asians and it would), and it seems less likely than Mary.

Other Possibilities

6.

Julian Day- Bohemian RhapsodyIf it picks up a BAFTA nomination, it's probably in. The era, 70s-80s, isn't known for being a big nomination-getter, with only four films 2000, when the eras would've become retro, scoring nods. Still, they're, likely, big enough to score votes, so it'll be close.

7.

Colleen Atwood- Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald

8.

Jenny Beavan- The Nutcracker and the Four Realms

9.

Andrea Flesch- Colette

10.

Erin Benach- A Star Is Born

1.

Fiona Crombie and Alice Felton- The FavouriteLock.

2.

John Myhre and Gordon Sim- Mary Poppins ReturnsLock.

3.

Hannah Beachler and Jay Hart- Black PantherNot quite the lock that it is in other below-the-line categories, but a very likely nominee.

4.

Nathan Crowley and Kathy Lucas- First ManWhile never the most beloved of the group, Crowley's work is always so nuanced and specific, either to period or genre, that it's hard to deny that he should be in the final five. Not as strong of a contender thanks to the film's weak standing, but likely to contend here (though there's no way it wins).

5.

Adam Stockhausen and Paul Harrod- Isle of DogsI'm going way out there for #5, but Isle of Dogs has all of the hallmarks of a nominee here; foreign setting, flamboyance, specificity. The only hurdle it has to overcome is the fact that it's a stop-motion film. I believe that that could be easier than in most years; while there are numerous other contenders, few really have that je ne sais quoi. Probably way off, but it's early enough that I can go nuts.

Other Possibilities

6.

Eugenio Caballero and Barbara Enriquez- RomaWill the Black-and-White get in the way here? Likely not, but I have a feeling that it's going to get in the way of a few key voters; bright, vivid coloring has, historically, been a clincher here, and only two movies with black-and-white cinematography have been nominated here in the last 50 years (three if you count Pleasantville). Still a strong contender, as it's a BP contender in a rather thin field.

7.

Stuart Craig and Anna Pinnock- Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of GrindelwaldNot quite there yet, but a BAFTA nod would go a long way here. I say it having a better chance here than in costume design though; sequels have much better odds here, and the location change from New York to France gives Craig and Pinnock a lot to work with this time.

8.

Nelson Coates and Andrew Baseman- Crazy Rich Asians

9.

Guy Hendrix Dyas and Lisa Chugg- The Nutcracker and the Four Realms

10.

Karen Murphy and Ryan Watson- A Star Is Born

1. Jay Cassidy- A Star Is Born
2. Alfonso Cuarón and Adam Gough- Roma
3. Tom Cross- First Man
4. Hank Corwin- Vice
5. Yorgos Mavropsaridis- The Favourite

Other Possibilities
6. Barry Alexander Brown- BlacKKKlansman
7. Michael P. Shawver and Debbie Berman- Black Panther
8. Joe Walker- Widows
9. Nat Sanders and Joi McMillon- If Beale Street Could Talk
10. Christopher Tellefsen- A Quiet Place

1. First Man
2. Black Panther
3. A Quiet Place
4. Mission: Impossible- Fallout
5. Ready Player One

Other Possibilities
6. A Star Is Born
7. Incredibles 2
8. Roma
9. Avengers: Infinity War
10. Bumblebee

1. A Star Is Born
2. A Quiet Place
3. Mary Poppins Returns
4. Black Panther
5. First Man

Other Possibilities
6. Bohemian Rhapsody
7. Ready Player One
8. Roma
9. Mission: Impossible- Fallout
10. Solo: A Star Wars Steady

1.

ViceTurning famous people into other famous people has always gone over big in this category, and turning several famous people into the government officials that royally fucked this country should make the cut, if not take the prize.

2.

Stan & OllieLike I said above; turning famous people into other, older famous people is like cat-nip here. Ever greater is the love of British famous people here, with major prosthetic work; this year, Stan & Ollie looks to scratch that itch. The Favourite and Mary Queen of Scots could occupy this spot, but Stan & Ollie, again, goes big on the prosthetic work that won Darkest Hour the Oscar here last year.

3.

The Nutcracker and the Four RealmsThere's usually one big-budget flick with big makeup work nominated here, and Nutcracker fits both. Most expect Black Panther to be the blockbuster here, and it may very well be, but most also forget that this category truly does not care about the quality of a film; The Lone Ranger,Suicide Squad, The Wolfman, fucking Norbit. They go for the rough stuff here, and I expect that trend to continue.

Other Possibilities

4.

Black Panther

5.

Border

6.

Mary Queen of Scots

7.

The Favourite

8.

Bohemian Rhapsody

9.

Suspiria

1.

Avenger: Infinity WarThe film with most visual effects usually gets in here and, despite being upstaged by Black Panther in most categories, Infinity War fits that bill.

2.

Ready Player OneSpielberg continues to invigorate the studio epic, and revolutionize effects-driven films entirely with Player One. Likely in.

3.

Black PantherDespite the fact that the effects get pretty bad in the last act, Black Panther is a, likely, BP contender, and, as such, will likely play a major role in this category.

4.

AquamanWe're getting into the guessing area here, and, despite only okay reviews, the visual effects of Aquaman been routinely been praised as old-school, big-budget spectacle.

5.

Welcome to MarwenRobert Zemeckis has routinely push visual effects further and further throughout his career, and he looks to do so again for Welcome to Marwen.

Other Possibilities

6.

Mary Poppins Returns

7.

Bumblebee

8.

First Man

9.

Ant-Man and the Wasp

10.

Mission: Impossible- Fallout