Predicting the Winners of the 2025 Oscars

And the Nominees are...


*Anora
*The Brutalist
*A Complete Unknown
*Conclave
*Dune: Part Two
*Emilia Pérez
*I'm Still Here
*Nickel Boys
*The Substance
*Wicked

And the Oscar goes to...


It's down to Anora and Conclave here, with the former having a slight edge here. While one can't overlook Conclave's BAFTA and SAG victories, Anora's DGA, PGA, WGA combination is too strong to ignore. Only once has that guild combination failed to yield a BP win; 2005's Brokeback Mountain. That doesn't make it a lock, especially this weird year, but it's enough to put it in pole position.

Power Rankings
1. Anora
2. Conclave
3. The Brutalist
4. A Complete Unknown
5. Wicked
6. Emilia Pérez
7. The Substance
8. I'm Still Here
9. Nickel Boys
10. Dune: Part Two

And the Nominees are...


*Jacques Audiard- Emilia Pérez
*Sean Baker- Anora
*Brady Corbet- The Brutalist
*Coralie Fargeat- The Substance
*James Mangold- A Complete Unknown

And the Oscar goes to...


He's won nowhere else, and I could see Anora losing this one even if it were to still take picture, but I think the DGA/PGA/WGA pairing is just too strong, and he has a lot of respect behind him. Corbet won the Globe and, more importantly, the BAFTA, and is shepherding a three-hour epic, but it's also his first at-bat here; Baker's been around a long time, i.e. he's due.

Power Rankings
1. Baker
2. Corbet
3. Fargeat
4. Mangold
5. Audiard

And the Nominees are...


*Cynthia Erivo- Wicked
*Karla Sofía Gascón- Emilia Pérez
*Mikey Madison- Anora
*Demi Moore- The Substance
*Fernanda Torres- I'm Still Here

And the Oscar goes to...


Madison's BAFTA win is major, as is the fact that she's the lead of the BP frontrunner, but I still think Moore squeaks out. While BAFTA is the stronger precursor for this category lately, Moore's in a stronger movie than recent SAG-winner/Oscar-losers (Glenn Close, Viola Davis, Lily Gladstone), and the Makeup win pairing has been very strong lately (the last three Makeup winners have predicted lead acting wins). Plus, her speeches really have been strong, and she's a hometown comeback; I think that's a strong narrative. Torres could play a real spoiler here, a more traditional performance for this category and strong international backing. But it reminds me too much of the Parallel Mothers/Penelope Cruz mirage from a few years ago to take the bait.

Power Rankings
1. Moore
2. Madison
3. Torres
4. Erivo
5. Gascón

And the Nominees are...


*Adrien Brody- The Brutalist
*Timothée Chalamet- A Complete Unknown
*Colman Domingo- Sing Sing
*Ralph Fiennes- Conclave
*Sebastian Stan- The Apprentice

And the Oscar goes to...


Chalamet's SAG win certainly made this thing competitive, and A Complete Unknown has done very well with the American guilds, so he's got a pretty good shot. Still going with Brody, though. The actors' branch is the biggest voting block, so Chalamet clearly has the love, and they really didn't go for The Brutalist at all (Brody was the lone nominee), but Brody has won everything else, including a pivotal BAFTA win, i.e. I think SAG was probably close, where as The Brutalist's international flavor likely gave Brody a stronger edge at BAFTA. That combined with the fact that even people that don't like, or didn't finish, The Brutalist are still fairly unanimous with praise for Brody, lead me to believe that the previous winner will take his second win here.

Power Rankings
1. Brody
2. Chalamet
3. Fiennes
4. Domingo
5. Stan

And the Nominees are...


*Monica Barbaro- A Complete Unknown
*Ariana Grande- Wicked
*Felicity Jones- The Brutalist
*Isabella Rossellini- Conclave
*Zoe Saldaña- Emilia Pérez

And the Oscar goes to...


Saldaña's been fairly teflon this season, even with her film's controversies, and she's won every precursor thus far. Grande could surprise, but Wicked has not been as beloved as many have expected. Many think Rossellini could stun, but she's really not enough of a presence to spoil.

Power Rankings
1. Saldaña
2. Grande
3. Rossellini
4. Barbaro
5. Jones

And the Nominees are...


*Yura Borisov- Anora
*Kieran Culkin- A Real Pain
*Edward Norton- A Complete Unknown
*Guy Pearce- The Brutalist
*Jeremy Strong- The Apprentice

And the Oscar goes to...


It's Culkin's.

And the Nominees are...


*Anora- Sean Baker
*The Brutalist- Brady Corbey & Mona Fastvold
*A Real Pain- Jesse Eisenberg
*September 5- Moritz Binder & Tim Fehlbaum and Alex David
*The Substance- Coralie Fargeat

And the Oscar goes to...


I think it's Anora, but A Real Pain has come on surprisingly strong in the back half. It won BAFTA and the Spirit Award, and Eisenberg is a very likable presence. But the fact that it couldn't score the Picture nod and that Anora seems like the favorite there, as well as Baker's WGA win, have me leaning towards Anora. The Substance could sneak in if voters want to reward Fargeat's effort, but I don't think people really think of it's screenplay when they think of the film. Closer than expected.

Power Rankings
1. Anora
2. A Real Pain
3. The Substance
4. The Brutalist
5. September 5

And the Nominees are...


*A Complete Unknown- James Mangold and Jay Cocks
*Conclave- Peter Straughan
*Emilia Pérez- Jacques Audiard and Thomas Bidegain, Léa Mysius and Nicolas Livecchi
*Nickel Boys- RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes
*Sing Sing- Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar and Clarence Maclin & John Divine G Whitfield

And the Oscar goes to...


Probably the lock of the night. Maybe Nickel Boys has enough passion behind it to upset, but Conclave has won everything and is the bigger BP contender.

Power Rankings
1. Conclave
2. Nickel Boys
3. A Complete Unknown
4. Sing Sing
5. Emilia Pérez

And the Nominees are...


*Flow
*Inside Out 2
*Memoir of a Snail
*Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
*The Wild Robot

And the Oscar goes to...


It's Flow or the The Wild Robot. Both are beloved, and it's quite close, but The Wild Robot has a lot of precursor love, winning top prize at the Annies and PGAs. It also has nominations in other categories, hinting at broad support (last time a Best Animated Feature nominee didn't win with a Sound nomination was 2001, the first year for the category). Could go either way.

Power Rankings
1. The Wild Robot
2. Flow

And the Nominees are...


*Emilia Pérez (France)
*Flow (Latvia)
*The Girl with the Needle (Denmark)
*I'm Still Here (Brazil)
*The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany)

And the Oscar goes to...


I had I'm Still Here for awhile now, but something funny happened; the Emilia Pérez stuff didn't seem to hit as hard as I expected. It killed it for picture, director, actress and probably screenplay, but was it going to win those anyway? I was unsure beforehand, and the recent guild awards hint that it might not have been the juggernaut that people thought. But it did get 13 nominations though, so there is real passion here for it. I'm Still Here has it too, but I just don't know. Is this a mirage? Maybe. I'm sticking with the 13-time nominee.

Power Rankings
1. Emilia Pérez
2. I'm Still Here
3. Flow
4. The Girl with the Needle
5. The Seed of the Sacred Fig

And the Nominees are...


*Black Box Diaries
*No Other Land
*Porcelain War
*Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat
*Sugarcane

And the Oscar goes to...


It's No Other Land or Porcelain War. Porcelain War has the hardware, winning DGA and scoring a PGA nomination, but No Other Land is certainly the most noteworthy and written-about of the bunch, and that's usually the thing that wins out here. Now, could a enough of a Pro-Israeli genocide contingent of voters derail this? Or weak-willed liberal who don't want to ruffle feathers, preferring the more easily defined Ukrainian war as their "statement" pick? Absolutely. But I'm maybe giving them too much credit and believing they'll go for the hard and heralded No Other Land. We'll see.

Power Rankings
1. No Other Land
2. Porcelain War
3. Black Box Diaries
4. Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat
5. Sugarcane

And the Nominees are...


*The Brutalist- Daniel Blumberg
*Conclave- Volker Bertelmann
*Emilia Pérez- Clément Ducol & Camille
*Wicked- John Powell and Stephen Schwartz
*The Wild Robot- Kris Bowers

And the Oscar goes to...


It's down to Bertelmann and Blumberg, with the Brutalist composer seemingly the favorite. He took the BAFTA, the only major precursor that didn't go to Challengers (which went un-nominated). If Bertelmann couldn't win there, where Conclave won Best Film, I just don't know if the passion's quite there. Plus, The Brutalist just has a booming, soaring theme that resonates even if you haven't seen the film (as many haven't). Sometimes, that's enough.

Power Rankings
1. The Brutalist
2. Conclave
3. The Wild Robot
4. Wicked
5. Emilia Pérez

And the nominees are...



* "El Mal" from Emilia Pérez- Music & Lyrics by Clément Ducol & Camille; Lyrics by Jacques Audiard
* "The Journey" from The Six Triple Eight- Music & Lyrics by Diane Warren
* "Like a Bird" from Sing Sing- Music & Lyrics by Abraham Alexander and Adrian Quesada
* "Mi Camino" from Emilia Pérez- Music & Lyrics by Clément Ducol & Camille
* "Never Too Late" from Elton John: Never Too Late- Music and Lyrics by Elton John, Brandi Carlile, Bernie Taupin and Andrew Watt

And the Oscar goes to...


A lot of people have jumped ship to "The Journey", finally giving Diane Warren her competitive Oscar and ending our long national nightmare of having to deal with whatever the hell she puts out every year. I'm not going that far though. I could see it, mind you (this has been a very stupid year), but are we really going to make a Netflix Tyler Perry movie a Oscar-winning film? Have we strayed that far from God's light? I just can't go that far.While the Emilia Pérez backlash has killed it for the major awards, I still think it's got enough love to win in categories not associated with it's lead actress. "El Mal" is a Saldana moment, and she's come out of this thing unaffected thus far. It's also one of the few moments that people don't actively hate in the film. It's a bad year for this category guys; there's no real winner.

Power Rankings
1. "El Mal"
2. "The Journey"
3. "Mi Camino"
4. "Like a Bird"
5. "Never Too Late"

And the Nominees are...


*Jarin Blaschke- Nosferatu
*Lol Crawley- The Brutalist
*Greig Fraser- Dune: Part Two
*Paul Guilhaume- Emilia Pérez
*Edward Lachman- Maria

And the Oscar goes to...


This one's another close race. The Brutalist seems like it would be the overwhelming favorite, given it's production and advocacy for film, but it's only won the BAFTA. Lachman took ASC, and is overdue for this award, and Blaschke won the Critics' Choice Award and his movie was the most widely seen. I do think the BAFTA win gives Crawley the edge (BAFTA and Oscar has correlated 9 of the past 10 races) and it's a BP frontrunner, something that the others aren't (I also really don't think many people care about Maria).

Power Rankings
1. The Brutalist
2. Nosferatu
3. Maria
4. Dune: Part Two
5. Emilia Pérez

And the Nominees are...


*A Complete Unknown- Arianne Phillips
*Conclave- Lisy Christl
*Gladiator II- Janty Yates and David Crossman
*Nosfertatu- Linda Muir
*Wicked- Paul Tazewell

And the Oscar goes to...


Pretty solidly Tazewell's to lose. He's won all of the precursors, and feels like the easiest win for Wicked. No real spoiler visible, too.

And the Nominees are...


*The Brutalist- Judy Becker and Patricia Cuccia
*Conclave- Suzie Davies and Cynthia Sleiter
*Dune: Part Two- Patrice Vermette and Shane Vieau
*Nosferatu- Craig Lathrop and Beatrice Brentnerová
*Wicked- Nathan Crowley and Lee Sandales

And the Oscar goes to…


If The Brutalist had won at BAFTA, I might be winning to take a shot, but they went with Wicked, like most other precursors (ADG, Critics).

Power Rankings
1. Wicked
2. The Brutalist
3. Conclave
4. Dune: Part Two
5. Nosferatu

And the Nominees are...


* Sean Baker- Anora
* Nick Emerson- Conclave
* Dávid Jancsó- The Brutalist
* Myron Kerstein- Wicked
* Juliette Welfling- Emilia Pérez

And the Oscar goes to...


Any of these movies could win, but this feels like another Anora/Conclave showdown, with this one going to the papal picture. Anora's got a lot of cuts, but it doesn't feel as refined or as measured as Conclave's quasi-thrilling work. Conclave took the BAFTA prize, as well. Also, I think voters will want to reward a full-on editor here, instead of a filmmaker cutting their own work. Still, this could go a lot of ways.

Power Rankings
1. Conclave
2. Anora
3. The Brutalist
4. Wicked
5. Emilia Pérez

And the Nominees are...

*A Complete Unknown- Tod A. Maitland, Donald Sylvester, Ted Caplan, Paul Massey and David Giammarco
*Dune: Part Two- Gareth John, Richard King, Ron Bartlett and Doug Hemphill
*Emilia Pérez- Erwan Kerzanet, Aymeric Devoldère, Maxence Dussère, Cyril Holtz and Niels Barletta
*Wicked- Simon Hayes, Nancy Nugent Title, Jack Dolman, Andy Nelson and John Marquis
*The Wild Robot- Randy Thom, Brian Chumney, Gary A. Rizzo and Leff Lefferts

And the Oscar goes to...


It's a Chalamet showdown here. Dune won the BAFTA, while A Complete Unknown took CAS (sound mixers guild). It's a close one, but I think Dune squeaks by. If this category was split between sound editing and mixing, you'd likely see a split here (Unknown taking mixing, Dune for editing), but the Sci-Fi epics success in both aspects of this award push it over for me. Could go either way, though (Wicked could spoil, though it didn't win a precursor)

Power Rankings
1. Dune: Part Two
2. A Complete Unknown
3. Wicked
4. Emilia Pérez
5. The Wild Robot

And the Nominees are...


*A Different Man- Mike Marino, David Presto and Crystal Jurado
*Emilia Pérez- Julia Floch-Carbonel, Emmanuel Janvier and Jean-Christophe Spadaccini
*Nosferatu- David White, Traci Loader and Suzanne Stokes-Munton
*The Substance- Pierre Olivier Persin, Stéphanie Guillon, and Marilyne Scarselli
*Wicked- Frances Hannon, Lara Blount and Sarah Nuth

And the Oscar goes to...


Strong work all over the place here, but The Substance is the overwhelming favorite. It's won everywhere it's needed to, is a BP contender, and has a likely acting win to pair with.

Power Rankings
1. The Substance
2. Wicked
3. A Different Man
4. Nosferatu
5. Emilia Pérez

And the Nominees are...


*Alien: Romulus- Eric Barba, Nelson Sepulveda-Fauser, Daniel Macarin and Shane Mahan
*Better Man- Luke Millar, David Clayton, Keith Herft and Peter Stubbs
*Dune: Part Two- Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe and Gerd Nefzer
*Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes- Erik Winquist, Stephen Unterfranz, Paul Story and Rodney Burke
*Wicked- Pablo Helman, Jonathan Fawkner, David Shirk and Paul Corbould

And the Oscar goes to...


Apes won the VES top prize, but so did the other three in the series, only to lose here. Dune and Wicked are the only BP nominees here, which is typically the deciding factor (only once, in 2015, has a non Best Picture nominee beat BP contender). Dune took BAFTA, and clearly has the superior effects over the gaudiness of Wicked. Could surprise, but doesn't seem likely.

Power Rankings
1. Dune: Part Two
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
3. Wicked
4. Better Man
5. Alien: Romulus