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1240 Views Share:Predicting the Winners of the 2018 Oscars
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Best Picture
782
7
7.3
And the Nominees are...
*Call Me by Your Name
*Darkest Hour
*Dunkirk
*Get Out
*Lady Bird
*Phantom Thread
*The Post
*The Shape of Water
*Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri
And the Oscar goes to...
The top category of the night, once again, doesn't have a lock. The Shape of Water seems like the favorite at the moment; it won the DGA and PGA, and scored the most nominations. There are a few key precursors that keep it from being a lock; first, it isn't going to win screenplay (something that has been a necessity for six of the seven BP winners). Second, it didn't get a SAG nod for ensemble, which every BP winner for the past 22 years has gotten. If the SAG precursor holds this year, then BP is going to Three Billboards, Get Out, or Lady Bird.
Of those three, Three Billboards looks like the biggest threat. It took the SAG for best ensemble, it won the Golden Globe, and it is likely to take the BAFTA award. It's biggest knock though is a crucial one; it missed a Best Director nomination. Argo was able to win without it, but by the time Oscar nominations came out, it had won every other prize out there, something that Three Billboards has not been able to do. Still, the Directors' branch and BP voting is so wonky that there's differing criteria and voting bodies for both.
The biggest factor in all of this is the preferential ballot, which puts, essentially, the same weight to both a #1 pick and a #2 pick, and a #9 place ranking can kill you (one of the main reasons that La La Land collapsed last year). With that in mind, a critical/commercial darling like Get Out could feasibly take enough #2 votes to take the win; unlike the top two though, it has to have another win, because it is unlikely that a movie can just win BP without winning anything else. It's got a great chance for Original Screenplay, but it seems like an uphill battle as it's yet to win any top prize (even Moonlight took the Golden Globe, and had a clear rival in La La to put at #9). Lady Bird seemed like it could've been a threat early on, but it has lost a lot of steam (though could gain some lingering #metoo guilt-votes), and also has to find another category to win (if it wins any, than it could be a spoiler).
Conversely, Three Billboards looks the shakiest on a preferential ballot. It's the most divisive of the three main contenders; one that could get a lot of #1 votes, but also a lot of last place votes (out of voters either genuinely hating the film, or simply disliking it and wanting it to lose). The Shape of Water is the most inoffensive, consensus pick that could benefit from a lot of #2 votes. This is, ultimately, my main reasoning behind picking it; it may not be the most loved, but it could very well be the most liked.
Of the other five, Dunkirk is probably the only one that could feasibly win; it could attract enough #2 votes, and woo a lot of older, white-male voters. Still, word is that Shape of Water is quite beloved, seemingly enough of one to take a lot of #1 and #2 votes. This is another uncertain BP race, but Shape seems like its in the best position to win.
Power Rankings
1. The Shape of Water
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Get Out
4. Lady Bird
5. Dunkirk
6. Call Me by Your Name
7. Phantom Thread
8. Darkest Hour
9. The Post
*Call Me by Your Name
*Darkest Hour
*Dunkirk
*Get Out
*Lady Bird
*Phantom Thread
*The Post
*The Shape of Water
*Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri
And the Oscar goes to...
The top category of the night, once again, doesn't have a lock. The Shape of Water seems like the favorite at the moment; it won the DGA and PGA, and scored the most nominations. There are a few key precursors that keep it from being a lock; first, it isn't going to win screenplay (something that has been a necessity for six of the seven BP winners). Second, it didn't get a SAG nod for ensemble, which every BP winner for the past 22 years has gotten. If the SAG precursor holds this year, then BP is going to Three Billboards, Get Out, or Lady Bird.
Of those three, Three Billboards looks like the biggest threat. It took the SAG for best ensemble, it won the Golden Globe, and it is likely to take the BAFTA award. It's biggest knock though is a crucial one; it missed a Best Director nomination. Argo was able to win without it, but by the time Oscar nominations came out, it had won every other prize out there, something that Three Billboards has not been able to do. Still, the Directors' branch and BP voting is so wonky that there's differing criteria and voting bodies for both.
The biggest factor in all of this is the preferential ballot, which puts, essentially, the same weight to both a #1 pick and a #2 pick, and a #9 place ranking can kill you (one of the main reasons that La La Land collapsed last year). With that in mind, a critical/commercial darling like Get Out could feasibly take enough #2 votes to take the win; unlike the top two though, it has to have another win, because it is unlikely that a movie can just win BP without winning anything else. It's got a great chance for Original Screenplay, but it seems like an uphill battle as it's yet to win any top prize (even Moonlight took the Golden Globe, and had a clear rival in La La to put at #9). Lady Bird seemed like it could've been a threat early on, but it has lost a lot of steam (though could gain some lingering #metoo guilt-votes), and also has to find another category to win (if it wins any, than it could be a spoiler).
Conversely, Three Billboards looks the shakiest on a preferential ballot. It's the most divisive of the three main contenders; one that could get a lot of #1 votes, but also a lot of last place votes (out of voters either genuinely hating the film, or simply disliking it and wanting it to lose). The Shape of Water is the most inoffensive, consensus pick that could benefit from a lot of #2 votes. This is, ultimately, my main reasoning behind picking it; it may not be the most loved, but it could very well be the most liked.
Of the other five, Dunkirk is probably the only one that could feasibly win; it could attract enough #2 votes, and woo a lot of older, white-male voters. Still, word is that Shape of Water is quite beloved, seemingly enough of one to take a lot of #1 and #2 votes. This is another uncertain BP race, but Shape seems like its in the best position to win.
Power Rankings
1. The Shape of Water
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Get Out
4. Lady Bird
5. Dunkirk
6. Call Me by Your Name
7. Phantom Thread
8. Darkest Hour
9. The Post
BradWesley123's rating:
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Best Director
889
7.3
7.8
Dunkirk (2017)
And the Nominees are...
*Paul Thomas Anderson- Phantom Thread
*Guillermo del Toro- The Shape of Water
*Greta Gerwig- Lady Bird
*Christopher Nolan- Dunkirk
*Jordan Peele- Get Out
And the Oscar goes to...
This is an excellent category that could easily take to anyone, but del Toro's got the precursors and the passion. It seems that everybody loves him, and respects him, and that his fantasy/romance has charmed all of the important people. He's won the Globe, the Critics' Choice Award and, most importantly, the DGA, who have only differed with the Academy seven times in 70 years. Nolan seems like the most likely spoiler, and if he takes the BAFTA then he might have a pretty good shot, but this is the first time that they've even nominated here, and he may have to build to that win. Gerwig also has a strong shot at winning, as the #metoo movement has played such an integral part this award season that it may power her to become only the second woman to win here. Lady Bird just doesn't seem to have the scope that BD winning films have had in the past, and that'll work against her. Peele would become the first African American to win here, but it, like Gerwig's, probably isn't "big" enough to win here (they have a much better shot at winning in Original Screenplay).
Power Rankings
1. del Toro
2. Nolan
3. Gerwig
4. Peele
5. Anderson
*Paul Thomas Anderson- Phantom Thread
*Guillermo del Toro- The Shape of Water
*Greta Gerwig- Lady Bird
*Christopher Nolan- Dunkirk
*Jordan Peele- Get Out
And the Oscar goes to...
This is an excellent category that could easily take to anyone, but del Toro's got the precursors and the passion. It seems that everybody loves him, and respects him, and that his fantasy/romance has charmed all of the important people. He's won the Globe, the Critics' Choice Award and, most importantly, the DGA, who have only differed with the Academy seven times in 70 years. Nolan seems like the most likely spoiler, and if he takes the BAFTA then he might have a pretty good shot, but this is the first time that they've even nominated here, and he may have to build to that win. Gerwig also has a strong shot at winning, as the #metoo movement has played such an integral part this award season that it may power her to become only the second woman to win here. Lady Bird just doesn't seem to have the scope that BD winning films have had in the past, and that'll work against her. Peele would become the first African American to win here, but it, like Gerwig's, probably isn't "big" enough to win here (they have a much better shot at winning in Original Screenplay).
Power Rankings
1. del Toro
2. Nolan
3. Gerwig
4. Peele
5. Anderson
BradWesley123's rating:
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Best Actor
309
6.8
7.4
Darkest Hour (2017)
And the Nominees are...
*Timothée Chalamet- Call Me by Your Name
*Daniel Day-Lewis- Phantom Thread
*Daniel Kaluuya- Get Out
*Gary Oldman- Darkest Hour
*Denzel Washington- Roman J. Israel, Esq.
And the Oscar goes to...
Oldman seems pretty locked in. He's won the Critics' Choice, Golden Globe, SAG Award and, almost assuredly, BAFTA for his performance as Winston Churchill, and it's the type of performance that gets a veteran actor an Oscar. If there's a spoiler, it'd be Chalamet, who gives an exceptional breakout performance in Call Me by Your Name, and has been campaigning nonstop. If there was a weakness in Oldman's campaign though, I feel like we would've seen it already. Not an out of the question spoiler, but it would appear that Oldman is just due for this.
Power Rankings
1. Oldman
2. Chalamet
3. Day-Lewis
4. Kaluuya
5. Washington
*Timothée Chalamet- Call Me by Your Name
*Daniel Day-Lewis- Phantom Thread
*Daniel Kaluuya- Get Out
*Gary Oldman- Darkest Hour
*Denzel Washington- Roman J. Israel, Esq.
And the Oscar goes to...
Oldman seems pretty locked in. He's won the Critics' Choice, Golden Globe, SAG Award and, almost assuredly, BAFTA for his performance as Winston Churchill, and it's the type of performance that gets a veteran actor an Oscar. If there's a spoiler, it'd be Chalamet, who gives an exceptional breakout performance in Call Me by Your Name, and has been campaigning nonstop. If there was a weakness in Oldman's campaign though, I feel like we would've seen it already. Not an out of the question spoiler, but it would appear that Oldman is just due for this.
Power Rankings
1. Oldman
2. Chalamet
3. Day-Lewis
4. Kaluuya
5. Washington
BradWesley123's rating:
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Best Actress
666
7.9
8.1
And the Nominees are...
*Sally Hawkins- The Shape of Water
*Frances McDormand- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
*Margot Robbie- I, Tonya
*Saoirse Ronan- Lady Bird
*Meryl Streep- The Post
And the Oscar goes to...
It's maybe the strongest Best Actress category in recent memory, but this one looks like it will easily go to McDormand. It's a fiery, powerhouse performance that helped propel the movie to the critical praise it's received. Hawkins seems like the most likely spoiler, as her film seems to be the BP favorite and anchors it, or even Ronan, but McDormand's got the precursors, and the power.
Power Rankings
1. McDormand
2. Hawkins
3. Ronan
4. Robbie
5. Streep
*Sally Hawkins- The Shape of Water
*Frances McDormand- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
*Margot Robbie- I, Tonya
*Saoirse Ronan- Lady Bird
*Meryl Streep- The Post
And the Oscar goes to...
It's maybe the strongest Best Actress category in recent memory, but this one looks like it will easily go to McDormand. It's a fiery, powerhouse performance that helped propel the movie to the critical praise it's received. Hawkins seems like the most likely spoiler, as her film seems to be the BP favorite and anchors it, or even Ronan, but McDormand's got the precursors, and the power.
Power Rankings
1. McDormand
2. Hawkins
3. Ronan
4. Robbie
5. Streep
BradWesley123's rating:
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Best Supporting Actress
581
7.1
7.4
And the Nominees are...
*Mary J. Blige- Mudbound
*Allison Janney- I, Tonya
*Lesley Manville- Phantom Thread
*Laurie Metcalf- Lady Bird
*Octavia Spencer- The Shape of Water
And the Oscar goes to...
Janney seems like something close to a lock, but this is really the only acting category where I could see a genuine upset. Janney is very-much the frontrunner; she's taken the Golden Globe, Critics' Choice and SAG award, a historically great combination. If she takes BAFTA, then I'll go on record as saying she is a total lock (though I wouldn't be surprised at all if Lesley Manville won there, which would certainly throw her hat into the ring). If there's a major knock against her chances, its that I, Tonya couldn't score a BP nod despite be a sensation with the guilds, whereas Metcalf's (and, even, Manville's) film got a BP nod. If they really want to give Lady Bird something, then this is probably going to be the place (because Picture, Director, Actress and, even, Screenplay are starting to look out of reach) where they would. Hell, Manville could certainly sneak in; if she takes BAFTA (and she probably will, because she's the only Oscar-nominated Brit to get one), the she could certainly be a threat, seeing as Phantom Thread has been surging as of late. Still, for now, I'm going with the stats and sticking with Janney.
Power Rankings
1. Janney
2. Metcalf
3. Manville
4. Blige
5. Spencer
*Mary J. Blige- Mudbound
*Allison Janney- I, Tonya
*Lesley Manville- Phantom Thread
*Laurie Metcalf- Lady Bird
*Octavia Spencer- The Shape of Water
And the Oscar goes to...
Janney seems like something close to a lock, but this is really the only acting category where I could see a genuine upset. Janney is very-much the frontrunner; she's taken the Golden Globe, Critics' Choice and SAG award, a historically great combination. If she takes BAFTA, then I'll go on record as saying she is a total lock (though I wouldn't be surprised at all if Lesley Manville won there, which would certainly throw her hat into the ring). If there's a major knock against her chances, its that I, Tonya couldn't score a BP nod despite be a sensation with the guilds, whereas Metcalf's (and, even, Manville's) film got a BP nod. If they really want to give Lady Bird something, then this is probably going to be the place (because Picture, Director, Actress and, even, Screenplay are starting to look out of reach) where they would. Hell, Manville could certainly sneak in; if she takes BAFTA (and she probably will, because she's the only Oscar-nominated Brit to get one), the she could certainly be a threat, seeing as Phantom Thread has been surging as of late. Still, for now, I'm going with the stats and sticking with Janney.
Power Rankings
1. Janney
2. Metcalf
3. Manville
4. Blige
5. Spencer
BradWesley123's rating:
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Best Supporting Actor
299
7.5
7.6
And the Nominees are...
*Willem Dafoe- The Florida Project
*Woody Harrelson- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
*Richard Jenkins- The Shape of Water
*Christopher Plummer- All the Money in the World
*Sam Rockwell- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
And the Oscar goes to...
He's won everything leading up to the Oscars, and Three Billboards is such an actor-heavy movie that it would be a major surprise if Rockwell lost. As for upset possibilities, this isn't the most rich field. Early thinking was that this would be Dafoe's lifetime achievement award, but The Florida Project never hit the way prognosticators expected, and his is the film's sole nomination. Harrelson is clearly well-liked, but it'll be difficult to overcome his costars' more showy work here. Plummer rode a wave of momentum into the category, but his (like Dafoe's) is the film's sole nomination, and his nod and the message that it sends seems like the award itself. Dafoe is probably the closest, but it seems like the award is locked in.
Power Rankings
1. Rockwell
2. Dafoe
3. Jenkins
4. Plummer
5. Harrelson
*Willem Dafoe- The Florida Project
*Woody Harrelson- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
*Richard Jenkins- The Shape of Water
*Christopher Plummer- All the Money in the World
*Sam Rockwell- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
And the Oscar goes to...
He's won everything leading up to the Oscars, and Three Billboards is such an actor-heavy movie that it would be a major surprise if Rockwell lost. As for upset possibilities, this isn't the most rich field. Early thinking was that this would be Dafoe's lifetime achievement award, but The Florida Project never hit the way prognosticators expected, and his is the film's sole nomination. Harrelson is clearly well-liked, but it'll be difficult to overcome his costars' more showy work here. Plummer rode a wave of momentum into the category, but his (like Dafoe's) is the film's sole nomination, and his nod and the message that it sends seems like the award itself. Dafoe is probably the closest, but it seems like the award is locked in.
Power Rankings
1. Rockwell
2. Dafoe
3. Jenkins
4. Plummer
5. Harrelson
BradWesley123's rating:
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Best Adapted Screenplay
484
7.8
7.8
Call Me by Your Name (2017)
And the Nominees are...
*Call Me by Your Name- James Ivory
*The Disaster Artist- Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber
*Logan- Scott Frank, James Mangold and Michael Green
*Molly's Game- Aaron Sorkin
*Mudbound- Dee Rees and Virgil Williams
And the Oscar goes to...
This one seems pretty simple; Call Me by Your Name is the only BP nominee of the bunch, and a non-Best Picture screenplay nominee has only won this category three times in 89 years (and two of those years didn't have a Picture-nominated script in the field). It also won the WAG award, will likely take the BAFTA, and James Ivory has been nominated numerous times without winning. It's possible that it could be spoiled (Mudbound looks like it's the only script that's within a mile of CMBYN), but it would be a huge surprise.
Power Rankings
1. Call Me by Your Name
2. Mudbound
3. Logan
4. Molly's Game
5. The Disaster Artist
*Call Me by Your Name- James Ivory
*The Disaster Artist- Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber
*Logan- Scott Frank, James Mangold and Michael Green
*Molly's Game- Aaron Sorkin
*Mudbound- Dee Rees and Virgil Williams
And the Oscar goes to...
This one seems pretty simple; Call Me by Your Name is the only BP nominee of the bunch, and a non-Best Picture screenplay nominee has only won this category three times in 89 years (and two of those years didn't have a Picture-nominated script in the field). It also won the WAG award, will likely take the BAFTA, and James Ivory has been nominated numerous times without winning. It's possible that it could be spoiled (Mudbound looks like it's the only script that's within a mile of CMBYN), but it would be a huge surprise.
Power Rankings
1. Call Me by Your Name
2. Mudbound
3. Logan
4. Molly's Game
5. The Disaster Artist
BradWesley123's rating:
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Best Original Screenplay
868
7.3
7.7
And the Nominees are...
*The Big Sick- Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani
*Get Out- Jordan Peele
*Lady Bird- Greta Gerwig
*The Shape of Water- Guillermo del Toro & Vanessa Taylor
*Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri- Martin McDonagh
And the Oscar goes to...
This could be the most difficult category of the night to call. Original Screenplay usually goes to two types of screenplay; the most "original" screenplay, or the most screenplay. This year, that dictum is embodied by the two most likely winners; the most original, Get Out, versus the most, Three Billboards. Peele won the WGA award, which really should tip the award in his favor, but McDonagh was ineligible there, so there was no real contest. McDonagh won the Golden Globe, where Peele was not nominated, and is likely to win the BAFTA, which should tip the award in his favor, but Get Out is a distinctly American film (so it never really had a big shot), and BAFTA isn't the most reliable Oscar prognosticator, as it's been right just four times out of seven; missing in 2011 (they went for The Artist over Midnight in Paris, 2013 (American Hustle over Her) and 2014 (The Grand Budapest Hotel over Birdman.
There are a few possible curveballs that could be thrown into this race; if Get Out were to surprise and take BAFTA, then it would be pretty hard to see it losing (as Three Billboards is pretty damn beloved by the BAFTAs). Another would be the top two films splitting, leading to Lady Bird or even The Shape of Water to take top prize (sorry Big Sick fans). Shockers are, however, pretty rare for the original screenplay category, so it's likely to be the top two. Its a toss-up, and a category that I could easily switch in the next two weeks, but I'm going with Three Billboards. My thinking is that if it's the BP threat that many are billing it as, then it has a, presumably, very well-liked script, and the actors, who make up the largest voting branch, are going to go with the script that gives it's actors the most to do (most beats most original, in other words). Still, this is a superb race that could easily go for Get Out (or even the other two BP nominees).
Power Rankings
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. Get Out
3. Lady Bird
4. The Shape of Water
5. The Big Sick
*The Big Sick- Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani
*Get Out- Jordan Peele
*Lady Bird- Greta Gerwig
*The Shape of Water- Guillermo del Toro & Vanessa Taylor
*Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri- Martin McDonagh
And the Oscar goes to...
This could be the most difficult category of the night to call. Original Screenplay usually goes to two types of screenplay; the most "original" screenplay, or the most screenplay. This year, that dictum is embodied by the two most likely winners; the most original, Get Out, versus the most, Three Billboards. Peele won the WGA award, which really should tip the award in his favor, but McDonagh was ineligible there, so there was no real contest. McDonagh won the Golden Globe, where Peele was not nominated, and is likely to win the BAFTA, which should tip the award in his favor, but Get Out is a distinctly American film (so it never really had a big shot), and BAFTA isn't the most reliable Oscar prognosticator, as it's been right just four times out of seven; missing in 2011 (they went for The Artist over Midnight in Paris, 2013 (American Hustle over Her) and 2014 (The Grand Budapest Hotel over Birdman.
There are a few possible curveballs that could be thrown into this race; if Get Out were to surprise and take BAFTA, then it would be pretty hard to see it losing (as Three Billboards is pretty damn beloved by the BAFTAs). Another would be the top two films splitting, leading to Lady Bird or even The Shape of Water to take top prize (sorry Big Sick fans). Shockers are, however, pretty rare for the original screenplay category, so it's likely to be the top two. Its a toss-up, and a category that I could easily switch in the next two weeks, but I'm going with Three Billboards. My thinking is that if it's the BP threat that many are billing it as, then it has a, presumably, very well-liked script, and the actors, who make up the largest voting branch, are going to go with the script that gives it's actors the most to do (most beats most original, in other words). Still, this is a superb race that could easily go for Get Out (or even the other two BP nominees).
Power Rankings
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. Get Out
3. Lady Bird
4. The Shape of Water
5. The Big Sick
BradWesley123's rating:
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Best Animated Feature
769
7.4
8.4
Coco (2017)
And the Nominees are...
*The Boss Baby
*The Breadwinner
*Coco
*Ferdinand
*Loving Vincent
And the Oscar goes to...
Coco's win seems like a forgone conclusion at this point; it's won all the precursors, it was a hit at the box office, it's Pixar at the best. The Breadwinner might be a possible spoiler, if #metoo and women's stories really hit hard that night, but it would be pretty stunning to see Coco lose.
Power Rankings
1. Coco
2. The Breadwinner
3. Loving Vincent
4. Ferdinand
5. The Boss Baby
*The Boss Baby
*The Breadwinner
*Coco
*Ferdinand
*Loving Vincent
And the Oscar goes to...
Coco's win seems like a forgone conclusion at this point; it's won all the precursors, it was a hit at the box office, it's Pixar at the best. The Breadwinner might be a possible spoiler, if #metoo and women's stories really hit hard that night, but it would be pretty stunning to see Coco lose.
Power Rankings
1. Coco
2. The Breadwinner
3. Loving Vincent
4. Ferdinand
5. The Boss Baby
BradWesley123's rating:
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Best Documentary Feature
69
7.6
7.8
And the Nominees are...
*Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
*Faces Places
*Icarus
*Last Men in Aleppo
*Strong Island
And the Oscar goes to...
This is one of those categories that's been prone to surprise, but my gut is saying that it's coming down to the weightiest (Last Men in Aleppo) vs. the most charming (Faces Places), with the charming one winning out. I think Places quirky originality will be able to subdue those going for the "most important" film in the pack. It could go to either one, or even any of the others, but Faces Places seems to have the momentum.
Power Rankings
1. Faces Places
2. Last Men in Aleppo
3. Icarus
4. Strong Island
5. Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
*Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
*Faces Places
*Icarus
*Last Men in Aleppo
*Strong Island
And the Oscar goes to...
This is one of those categories that's been prone to surprise, but my gut is saying that it's coming down to the weightiest (Last Men in Aleppo) vs. the most charming (Faces Places), with the charming one winning out. I think Places quirky originality will be able to subdue those going for the "most important" film in the pack. It could go to either one, or even any of the others, but Faces Places seems to have the momentum.
Power Rankings
1. Faces Places
2. Last Men in Aleppo
3. Icarus
4. Strong Island
5. Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
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Best Foreign Language Film
120
6.7
7.2
A Fantastic Woman (2017)
And the Nominees are...
*A Fantastic Woman
*The Insult
*Loveless
*On Body and Soul
*The Square
And the Oscar goes to...
It seems like this category comes down to A Fantastic Woman and The Square. Both have the backing, but Woman seems to have the momentum, with it's topical transgender lead character/actress, and strong critical praise. It's also, likely, the less divisive of the two, with some actively hating The Square. It'll be a close race, but my gut says A Fantastic Woman will take the prize.
Power Rankings
1. A Fantastic Woman
2. The Square
3. Loveless
4. On Body and Soul
5. The Insult
*A Fantastic Woman
*The Insult
*Loveless
*On Body and Soul
*The Square
And the Oscar goes to...
It seems like this category comes down to A Fantastic Woman and The Square. Both have the backing, but Woman seems to have the momentum, with it's topical transgender lead character/actress, and strong critical praise. It's also, likely, the less divisive of the two, with some actively hating The Square. It'll be a close race, but my gut says A Fantastic Woman will take the prize.
Power Rankings
1. A Fantastic Woman
2. The Square
3. Loveless
4. On Body and Soul
5. The Insult
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Best Original Score
368
7.6
7.4
And the Nominees are...
*Carter Burwell- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
*Alexandre Desplat- The Shape of Water
*Jonny Greenwood- Phantom Thread
*John Williams- Star Wars: The Last Jedi
*Hans Zimmer- Dunkirk
And the Oscar goes to...
A strong race, but Desplat's beautiful work for The Shape of Water has got to be the favorite. While Greenwood's score may be the most complete, Desplat's opening theme for his film is the stuff of dreams. He's won the Globe, Critics' Choice Award, and will probably take the BAFTA. Not a lock, but a very strong contender.
Power Rankings
1. The Shape of Water
2. Phantom Thread
3. Dunkirk
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
*Carter Burwell- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
*Alexandre Desplat- The Shape of Water
*Jonny Greenwood- Phantom Thread
*John Williams- Star Wars: The Last Jedi
*Hans Zimmer- Dunkirk
And the Oscar goes to...
A strong race, but Desplat's beautiful work for The Shape of Water has got to be the favorite. While Greenwood's score may be the most complete, Desplat's opening theme for his film is the stuff of dreams. He's won the Globe, Critics' Choice Award, and will probably take the BAFTA. Not a lock, but a very strong contender.
Power Rankings
1. The Shape of Water
2. Phantom Thread
3. Dunkirk
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
BradWesley123's rating:
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Best Original Song
115
7.2
7.4
Mudbound (2017)
And the nominees are...
* "Mighty River" from Mudbound- Music and Lyrics by Mary J. Blige, Raphael Saadiq & Taura Stinson
* "Mystery of Love" from Call Me by Your Name- Music & Lyrics by Sufjan Stevens
* "Remember Me" from Coco- Music and Lyrics by Kristen Anderson-Lopez & Robert Lopez
* "Stand Up for Something" from Marshall- Music by Diane Warren, Lyrics by Lonnie Lynn & Diane Warren
* "This is Me" from The Greatest Showman- Music & Lyrics by Benj Pasek & Justin Paul
And the Oscar goes to...
Not a lock, but "Remember Me" looks like a comfortable favorite. The nominees are previous winners (strong track record), it's an animated movie (better record), and it took the Critics' Choice Award (only missed twice this decade). It is, also, the most emotionally impactful song of the bunch, played for maximum tear-jerking effort twice in Coco. This a rather loaded category this year though; The Greatest Showman took the Golden Globe, and was written by last year's winners; Call Me by Your Name is the only BP nominee in the pack, and that could help "Mystery of Love"; "Mighty River" is the type song that has won in the past, and it would be a strong place to award a clearly liked film. Coco is the favorite, but don't be surprise if you see an upset.
Power Rankings
1. "Remember Me"
2. "Mighty River"
3. "This is Me"
4. "Mystery of Love"
5. "Stand Up for Something"
* "Mighty River" from Mudbound- Music and Lyrics by Mary J. Blige, Raphael Saadiq & Taura Stinson
* "Mystery of Love" from Call Me by Your Name- Music & Lyrics by Sufjan Stevens
* "Remember Me" from Coco- Music and Lyrics by Kristen Anderson-Lopez & Robert Lopez
* "Stand Up for Something" from Marshall- Music by Diane Warren, Lyrics by Lonnie Lynn & Diane Warren
* "This is Me" from The Greatest Showman- Music & Lyrics by Benj Pasek & Justin Paul
And the Oscar goes to...
Not a lock, but "Remember Me" looks like a comfortable favorite. The nominees are previous winners (strong track record), it's an animated movie (better record), and it took the Critics' Choice Award (only missed twice this decade). It is, also, the most emotionally impactful song of the bunch, played for maximum tear-jerking effort twice in Coco. This a rather loaded category this year though; The Greatest Showman took the Golden Globe, and was written by last year's winners; Call Me by Your Name is the only BP nominee in the pack, and that could help "Mystery of Love"; "Mighty River" is the type song that has won in the past, and it would be a strong place to award a clearly liked film. Coco is the favorite, but don't be surprise if you see an upset.
Power Rankings
1. "Remember Me"
2. "Mighty River"
3. "This is Me"
4. "Mystery of Love"
5. "Stand Up for Something"
BradWesley123's rating:
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Best Cinematography
985
7.8
8
And the Nominees are...
*Roger Deakins- Blade Runner 2049
*Bruno Delbonnel- Darkest Hour
*Hoyte Van Hoytema- Dunkirk
*Dan Laustsen- The Shape of Water
*Rachel Morrison- Mudbound
And the Oscar goes to...
In theory, this should be a total lock. Deakins is a legend on his fourteenth nomination, and zero wins; this should be his career achievement award. That, unfortunately, isn't the case; he's in a category with the BP nominees, and one that is making history with the nomination alone (Mudbound). While I still think that Deakins is going to take the prize, if he loses at BAFTA (it won ASC), then it could be a very close race; if he wins, he'll be pretty strong, but still not necessarily a lock (though, nobody has ever won ASC, BAFTA and the Critics' Choice Award and lost the Oscar). If he loses it could really go to any of the other candidates (except for Darkest Hour), but I'll take The Shape of Water as the most likely spoiler, as the film is a BP favorite.
Power Rankings
1. Blade Runner 2049
2. The Shape of Water
3. Dunkirk
4. Mudbound
5. Darkest Hour
*Roger Deakins- Blade Runner 2049
*Bruno Delbonnel- Darkest Hour
*Hoyte Van Hoytema- Dunkirk
*Dan Laustsen- The Shape of Water
*Rachel Morrison- Mudbound
And the Oscar goes to...
In theory, this should be a total lock. Deakins is a legend on his fourteenth nomination, and zero wins; this should be his career achievement award. That, unfortunately, isn't the case; he's in a category with the BP nominees, and one that is making history with the nomination alone (Mudbound). While I still think that Deakins is going to take the prize, if he loses at BAFTA (it won ASC), then it could be a very close race; if he wins, he'll be pretty strong, but still not necessarily a lock (though, nobody has ever won ASC, BAFTA and the Critics' Choice Award and lost the Oscar). If he loses it could really go to any of the other candidates (except for Darkest Hour), but I'll take The Shape of Water as the most likely spoiler, as the film is a BP favorite.
Power Rankings
1. Blade Runner 2049
2. The Shape of Water
3. Dunkirk
4. Mudbound
5. Darkest Hour
BradWesley123's rating:
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Best Costume Design
100
6.2
6.8
And the Nominees are...
*Consolata Boyle- Victoria & Abdul
*Mark Bridges- Phantom Thread
*Jacqueline Durran- Beauty and the Beast
*Jacqueline Durran- Darkest Hour
*Luis Sequeira- The Shape of Water
And the Oscar goes to...
With Phantom Thread scoring surprise Best Picture and Director nominations, it's status as favorite inches closer to lock. Bridges only real competition here is Durran's work of Beauty and the Beast, but Thread's prestige status, as well as the fashion design nature of the film, should propel it to gold.
Power Rankings
1. Phantom Thread
2. Beauty and the Beast
3. Victoria & Abdul
4. Darkest Hour
5. The Shape of Water
*Consolata Boyle- Victoria & Abdul
*Mark Bridges- Phantom Thread
*Jacqueline Durran- Beauty and the Beast
*Jacqueline Durran- Darkest Hour
*Luis Sequeira- The Shape of Water
And the Oscar goes to...
With Phantom Thread scoring surprise Best Picture and Director nominations, it's status as favorite inches closer to lock. Bridges only real competition here is Durran's work of Beauty and the Beast, but Thread's prestige status, as well as the fashion design nature of the film, should propel it to gold.
Power Rankings
1. Phantom Thread
2. Beauty and the Beast
3. Victoria & Abdul
4. Darkest Hour
5. The Shape of Water
BradWesley123's rating:
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Best Production Design
725
6
7.1
Beauty and the Beast (2017)
And the Nominees are...
*Beauty and the Beast- Sarah Greenwood and Katie Spencer
*Blade Runner 2049- Dennis Gassner and Alessandra Querzola
*Darkest Hour- Sarah Greenwood and Katie Spencer
*Dunkirk- Nathan Crowley and Gary Fettis
*The Shape of Water- Paul Denham Austerberry and Shane Vieau and Jeff Melvin
And the Oscar goes to...
Despite a strong lineup, this race, likely, comes down to Blade Runner 2049 and The Shape of Water, with Shape appearing to be the favorite. Both won in their respective categories at the ADG awards, and both feature some dazzling work, but my guess is that steampunk fantasy/period designs will be enough to stave of the decaying ruins of Blade Runner's world (plus, there may be some concern of voters as to how much visual effects play into 2049 as opposed to Shape).
Power Rankings
1. The Shape of Water
2. Blade Runner 2049
3. Darkest Hour
4. Beauty and the Beast
5. Dunkirk
*Beauty and the Beast- Sarah Greenwood and Katie Spencer
*Blade Runner 2049- Dennis Gassner and Alessandra Querzola
*Darkest Hour- Sarah Greenwood and Katie Spencer
*Dunkirk- Nathan Crowley and Gary Fettis
*The Shape of Water- Paul Denham Austerberry and Shane Vieau and Jeff Melvin
And the Oscar goes to...
Despite a strong lineup, this race, likely, comes down to Blade Runner 2049 and The Shape of Water, with Shape appearing to be the favorite. Both won in their respective categories at the ADG awards, and both feature some dazzling work, but my guess is that steampunk fantasy/period designs will be enough to stave of the decaying ruins of Blade Runner's world (plus, there may be some concern of voters as to how much visual effects play into 2049 as opposed to Shape).
Power Rankings
1. The Shape of Water
2. Blade Runner 2049
3. Darkest Hour
4. Beauty and the Beast
5. Dunkirk
BradWesley123's rating:
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Best Film Editing
425
7.1
7.5
And the Nominees are...
*Jon Gregory- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
*Paul Machliss and Jonathan Amos- Baby Driver
*Tatiana S. Riegel- I, Tonya
*Lee Smith- Dunkirk
*Sidney Wolinsky- The Shape of Water
And the Oscar goes to...
Best Editing usually goes to the film with the most edits and, this year, that has to be Dunkirk. Smith's work combing three separate storylines, plus the thrilling action within all of them, and creating a fluid experience. Baby Driver is seen by many as a potential spoiler; the edits are exact and match up with the soundtrack near-flawlessly. It couldn't win the ACE Eddie award (editing guild), even in the slim Comedy category (where I, Tonya won). Statistically, only one film that has won the Eddie for Comedy editing has won, and never has one that lost that award gone on to win here (or, even been nominated here). It did, however, win the BAFTA, which has only failed to match up with the Oscars twice this decade (both times awarding a film that was not an Oscar nominee). It'll be a close race, but my gut still says Dunkirk. The Shape of Water could spoil too; it's a BP frontrunner, and BP winners have been known to take editing too. If Three Billboards somehow makes out with this one, look for it to win Best Picture.
Power Rankings
1. Dunkirk
2. Baby Driver
3. The Shape of Water
4. I, Tonya
5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
*Jon Gregory- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
*Paul Machliss and Jonathan Amos- Baby Driver
*Tatiana S. Riegel- I, Tonya
*Lee Smith- Dunkirk
*Sidney Wolinsky- The Shape of Water
And the Oscar goes to...
Best Editing usually goes to the film with the most edits and, this year, that has to be Dunkirk. Smith's work combing three separate storylines, plus the thrilling action within all of them, and creating a fluid experience. Baby Driver is seen by many as a potential spoiler; the edits are exact and match up with the soundtrack near-flawlessly. It couldn't win the ACE Eddie award (editing guild), even in the slim Comedy category (where I, Tonya won). Statistically, only one film that has won the Eddie for Comedy editing has won, and never has one that lost that award gone on to win here (or, even been nominated here). It did, however, win the BAFTA, which has only failed to match up with the Oscars twice this decade (both times awarding a film that was not an Oscar nominee). It'll be a close race, but my gut still says Dunkirk. The Shape of Water could spoil too; it's a BP frontrunner, and BP winners have been known to take editing too. If Three Billboards somehow makes out with this one, look for it to win Best Picture.
Power Rankings
1. Dunkirk
2. Baby Driver
3. The Shape of Water
4. I, Tonya
5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
BradWesley123's rating:
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Best Sound Editing
838
7.2
7.6
And the Nominees are...
*Baby Driver- Julian Slater
*Blade Runner 2049- Mark Mangini and Theo Green
*Dunkirk- Richard King and Alex Gibson
*The Shape of Water- Nathan Robitaille and Nelson Ferreira
*Star Wars: The Last Jedi- Matthew Wood and Ren Klyce
And the Oscar goes to...
This is a solid category, but Dunkirk is an all-out assault on the ears. Editing is the creation of sound, and Dunkirk's got gunfire, aerial dogfights, explosions, etc.; everything that one needs to win this category. Plus, it's a BP nominee; a credential that has worked well for this category since that race went beyond five nominees (The Shape of Water is also a BP contender, but it would be hard to argue that that work has more sound than this one).
Power Rankings
1. Dunkirk
2. Blade Runner 2049
3. Baby Driver
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
5. The Shape of Water
*Baby Driver- Julian Slater
*Blade Runner 2049- Mark Mangini and Theo Green
*Dunkirk- Richard King and Alex Gibson
*The Shape of Water- Nathan Robitaille and Nelson Ferreira
*Star Wars: The Last Jedi- Matthew Wood and Ren Klyce
And the Oscar goes to...
This is a solid category, but Dunkirk is an all-out assault on the ears. Editing is the creation of sound, and Dunkirk's got gunfire, aerial dogfights, explosions, etc.; everything that one needs to win this category. Plus, it's a BP nominee; a credential that has worked well for this category since that race went beyond five nominees (The Shape of Water is also a BP contender, but it would be hard to argue that that work has more sound than this one).
Power Rankings
1. Dunkirk
2. Blade Runner 2049
3. Baby Driver
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
5. The Shape of Water
BradWesley123's rating:
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Best Sound Mixing
980
6.3
6.9
And the Nominees are...
*Baby Driver- Julian Slater, Tim Cavagin and Mary H. Ellis
*Blade Runner 2049- Ron Bartlett, Doug Hemphill and Mac Ruth
*Dunkirk- Mark Weingarten, Gregg Landaker and Gary A. Rizzo
*The Shape of Water- Christian Cooke, Brad Zoern and Glen Gauthier
*Star Wars: The Last Jedi- David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce and Stuart Wilson
And the Oscar goes to...
Another craft category that looks likely to go to Dunkirk. The combination of score and sound effects, heightening and lowering both for maximum effect, should be enough to win the category. This one is probably closer than the Sound Editing though; Baby Driver's combination of music and sound effects, arguably, makes the film the success it is, and The Shape of Water's dazzling score mixed with sound could be enough to sway voters. Still, the audio assault that Dunkirk inflicts is likely the favorite.
Power Rankings
1. Dunkirk
2. Baby Driver
3. The Shape of Water
4. Blade Runner 2049
5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
*Baby Driver- Julian Slater, Tim Cavagin and Mary H. Ellis
*Blade Runner 2049- Ron Bartlett, Doug Hemphill and Mac Ruth
*Dunkirk- Mark Weingarten, Gregg Landaker and Gary A. Rizzo
*The Shape of Water- Christian Cooke, Brad Zoern and Glen Gauthier
*Star Wars: The Last Jedi- David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce and Stuart Wilson
And the Oscar goes to...
Another craft category that looks likely to go to Dunkirk. The combination of score and sound effects, heightening and lowering both for maximum effect, should be enough to win the category. This one is probably closer than the Sound Editing though; Baby Driver's combination of music and sound effects, arguably, makes the film the success it is, and The Shape of Water's dazzling score mixed with sound could be enough to sway voters. Still, the audio assault that Dunkirk inflicts is likely the favorite.
Power Rankings
1. Dunkirk
2. Baby Driver
3. The Shape of Water
4. Blade Runner 2049
5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
BradWesley123's rating:
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Best Makeup & Hairstyling
236
7.2
7.9
And the Nominees are...
*Darkest Hour- Kazuhiro Tsuji, David Malinowski and Lucy Sibbick
*Victoria & Abdul- Daniel Phillips and Lou Sheppard
*Wonder- Arjen Tuiten
And the Oscar goes to...
It would be a pretty huge stunner if Darkest Hour fails to win here.
Power Rankings
1. Darkest Hour
2. Wonder
3. Victoria & Abdul
*Darkest Hour- Kazuhiro Tsuji, David Malinowski and Lucy Sibbick
*Victoria & Abdul- Daniel Phillips and Lou Sheppard
*Wonder- Arjen Tuiten
And the Oscar goes to...
It would be a pretty huge stunner if Darkest Hour fails to win here.
Power Rankings
1. Darkest Hour
2. Wonder
3. Victoria & Abdul
BradWesley123's rating:
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Best Visual Effects
493
6.8
7.4
And the Nominees are...
*Blade Runner 2049- John Nelson, Gerd Nefzer, Paul Lambert and Richard R. Hoover
*Guardians of the Galaxy Vol.2- Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Jonathan Fawkner and Dan Sudick
*Kong: Skull Island- Stephen Rosenbaum, Jeff White, Scott Benza and Mike Meinardus
*Star Wars: The Last Jedi- Ben Morris, Mike Mulholland, Neal Scanlan and Chris Corbould
*War for the Planet of the Apes- Joe Letteri, Daniel Barrett, Dan Lemmon and Joel Whist
And the Oscar goes to...
This one looks like a two-way race between Blade Runner 2049 and War for the Planet of the Apes, and it looks like one of the toughest races of the night to call. Blade Runner got more nods, which implies a stronger respect for the film overall, particularly its technical aspects. At the same time, the work on Apes is just stunning, and the fact that the previous two films have lost add a sheen of "due-ness" to the franchise. It's predecessors, 2011's Rise and 2014's Dawn, both lost this award, with Rise's lost coming as a major surprise. It however, lost to a BP nominee, Hugo, which this category has none of this year. Dawn's loss looks like a more apt comparison, when it got beat by Interstellar, which, like 2049, has four other nominations. Apes won the VFX Society prize (though, so did the other two), while 2049 is likely to win the BAFTA (which has a pretty solid track record for predicting the Oscars); i.e. it's a toss, with history seemingly more on 2049's side. My head is telling me to go with Blade Runner, but my heart is saying Planet of the Apes; for some reason, I'm going with my heart.
Power Rankings
1. War for the Planet of the Apes
2. Blade Runner 2049
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
5. Kong: Skull Island
*Blade Runner 2049- John Nelson, Gerd Nefzer, Paul Lambert and Richard R. Hoover
*Guardians of the Galaxy Vol.2- Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Jonathan Fawkner and Dan Sudick
*Kong: Skull Island- Stephen Rosenbaum, Jeff White, Scott Benza and Mike Meinardus
*Star Wars: The Last Jedi- Ben Morris, Mike Mulholland, Neal Scanlan and Chris Corbould
*War for the Planet of the Apes- Joe Letteri, Daniel Barrett, Dan Lemmon and Joel Whist
And the Oscar goes to...
This one looks like a two-way race between Blade Runner 2049 and War for the Planet of the Apes, and it looks like one of the toughest races of the night to call. Blade Runner got more nods, which implies a stronger respect for the film overall, particularly its technical aspects. At the same time, the work on Apes is just stunning, and the fact that the previous two films have lost add a sheen of "due-ness" to the franchise. It's predecessors, 2011's Rise and 2014's Dawn, both lost this award, with Rise's lost coming as a major surprise. It however, lost to a BP nominee, Hugo, which this category has none of this year. Dawn's loss looks like a more apt comparison, when it got beat by Interstellar, which, like 2049, has four other nominations. Apes won the VFX Society prize (though, so did the other two), while 2049 is likely to win the BAFTA (which has a pretty solid track record for predicting the Oscars); i.e. it's a toss, with history seemingly more on 2049's side. My head is telling me to go with Blade Runner, but my heart is saying Planet of the Apes; for some reason, I'm going with my heart.
Power Rankings
1. War for the Planet of the Apes
2. Blade Runner 2049
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
5. Kong: Skull Island
BradWesley123's rating:
*The Shape of Water: 4/13
Dunkirk: 3/8
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri: 3/7
Coco: 2/2
Darkest Hour: 2/6
Blade Runner 2049: 1/5
Call Me by Your Name: 1/4
Faces Places: 1/1
A Fantastic Woman: 1/1
I, Tonya: 1/3
Phantom Thread: 1/6
War for the Planet of the Apes: 1/1
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