2022 Oscar Nomination Predictions

1.

The favorite. #1-#5 are locks.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

SAG nomination for ensemble, plus the best actor frontrunner bodes well here for the biopic.

7.

Hasn't had that much heat, but it's been nominated everywhere it needs to be. Feels safe.

8.

Exceedingly divisive (it just cracks 50% on RT, 49% on Metacritic), but it is "IMPORTANT!", with a large cast of Oscar winners; i.e. this is dug into Hollywood like a tick. It's looking strong. It is entirely possible, though, that this divisiveness could draw away votes.

9.

Here's where things could get nutty. Drive My Car is probably winning International Feature. This category has, historically, been on it's own little island, but recent years have seen Roma and, most successfully, Parasite slay. It's been building momentum for the last month and a half, and won the three major critics groups; LA, NY, NSFC (both coasts, then national). Only five other films have done this; Goodfellas, Schindler's List, L.A. Confidential, The Social Network and The Hurt Locker. All of those films were nominated and/or won BP. While this would be the most likely to buck the trend, I think this one has a lot of love, and 10 open spots gives voters more room to breathe.

10.

PGA nominated 10 films; #1-8#. I'm going a bit big with Drive My Car, which means I'm leaving one out in the cold. 10/10 seems a bit too good for Oscar/PGA overlap; they've predicted all nominated BP nominees three of the last five years (called 7/8 last year). In 2009 and 2010, when the Oscars BP had 10 nominees (like this year), PGA went 9/10. I expect that to happen this time. So, with that in mind; Being the Ricardos or Tick, Tick... Boom!. Boom is the more critically acclaimed, has been in the conversation for months and has, consistently, found itself in numerous BP categories. Unfortunately, I expect the Hollywoood-ness of The Ricardos to overshadow the better film. It's Sorkin, 50s Hollywood, famous people playing famous dead people; it's pure bait. It seems crazy that it's in the conversation, until, of course, you look at the above things going for it. Add in the fact that Kidman is starting to look like a real threat for Actress, and it'll have more eyeballs on it. It's close, and both could overtake Drive My Car, but I see Sorkin's backwash to score. Plus, it's hard for a studio to score three BP nominees; Netflix already has The Power of the Dog and Don't Look Up. Another knock against Boom!.

There are plenty of other players though...

Other Possibilities

11.

12.

Has shown up at several guilds, and has post-Oscar sheen of BP/BD Guillermo del Toro winner. That said, it hasn't really been a great contender anywhere (Critics' Choice BP nominee; that's it), and if it couldn't score in a 10 slot PGA field, I don't have confidence.

13.

Can Apple score a BP nod? Macbeth has the right pedigree, and has built up some decent momentum over the past few weeks. It could surprise, as so many Coen films have, but I still don't see the passion. I think it might pick up some below-the-line nominations, but Apple's time, I think, will be next year.

14.

One of the few films here to make money, Gucci has some positives behind it. It looks like it'll score some acting nods, as well as a couple of tech categories, and SAG nominated it for Best Ensemble (their Best Picture). There's some heat. There are already a couple of divisive films in the mix above though, and I don't see the power or "IMPORTANCE" of the others. Could surprise, but I don't see it.

1.

Jane Campion- The Power of the DogProbably your winner here. The safest pick, at the very least.

2.

Steven Spielberg- West Side StoryIt would be a stunner to see him snubbed. If he is, I'd wager that voters think he's got enough and want to spread the wealth. I really can't see it, though.

3.

Paul Thomas Anderson- Licorice PizzaDGA nominee with a guaranteed BP nominee. The director's branch loves him (evidenced by his surprise Phantom Thread nomination), and he's got a broadly appealing film here. Feels safe.

4.

Denis Villeneuve- DuneThese last two spots come down to math. If I think Anderson, Campion and Spielberg are safe, then either Branagh or Villeneuve are out. All five scored DGA which, typically, is a kiss of death for the predicted five. Since 1970, when the DGA went to nominating the Oscar standard five nominees, the Academy/DGA 5/5 correlation has only happened only for times; 77, 81, 98, 09. While it's entirely possible that this will be the one time for this decade, the last few years have seen the Directors branch of the Academy sneak a few wild contenders. So, with that in mind, I'm taking Villeneuve to score his second nom. Dune is a technical marvel, the kind that ensnares both broad appeal and "auteur"-beholden voters. And, to Branagh's discredit, having a major BP contender doesn't mean you're locked in, as both Argo and Green Book have won top prize in the last decade without a directing nomination (see, also, every year for the past decade; Aaron Sorkin for Trial of the Chicago 7, Bradley Cooper for A Star Is Born, Martin McDonough for Three Billboards, Ridley Scott for The Martian, Kathryn Bigelow for Zero Dark Thirty).

5.

Ryûsuke Hamaguchi- Drive My CarWhat's the Director's branch pick if they pass over Branagh? Del Toro could surprise but, as mentioned above, Nightmare Alley just hasn't connected this year. McKay's coming off of two straight nominations but, even if it does manage to score a BP nod, few would call Don't Look Up a director's picture. Coen's as respected as hell and his Macbeth is immaculately staged, but I don't know about the film. It could over-perform, or it could under-perform; I'm hedging my bets. Maggie Gyllenhaal is a decent wild card. They haven't gone wild for actor-turned-director films lately, but The Lost Daughter is searing and specific enough that I think it could have more respect than expected. I'm not confident enough about that. There are a couple more that aren't out of the question (Pedro Almodovar, Sian Heder, Asghar Farhadi), but the one that pops out to me is Ryûsuke Hamaguchi for Drive My Car. Directors with non-English language films have really been surging lately, winning back-to-back in 2018 and 2019, and scoring four nods overall (Curaron and Joon-Ho winning; Paweł Pawlikowski and Thomas Vinterberg scoring surprise nods). Car is the International favorite, and his direction is key to that. It feels like a no-brainer.

Other Possibilities

6.

Kenneth Branagh- Belfast

7.

Joel Coen- The Tragedy of Macbeth

8.

Guillermo del Toro- Nightmare Alley

9.

Adam McKay- Don't Look Up

10.

Maggie Gyllenhaal- The Lost Daughter

1.

Will Smith- King RichardThe frontrunner.

2.

Benedict Cumberbatch- The Power of the DogLock. Could spoil if he takes BAFTA, which I'm sure he will.

3.

Denzel Washington- The Tragedy of MacbethNot quite a lock, but it's Denzel. As Macbeth. He got the SAG nod, and the film seems to be popping at the right time.

4.

Javier Bardem- Being the RicardosI feel a major snub coming here, and Garfield feels the most probable for that. Cumberbatch and Smith are guarantees, and Denzel is still Denzel, so that leaves Garfield. It seems like most years have one contender who gets nominated everywhere, typically in a musical and/or comedy (James Franco for The Disaster Artist, Taron Egerton for Rocektman, Ralph Fiennes for The Grand Budapest Hotel; Nightcrawler wasn't a comedy, but it was one of the biggest snubs of the last decade, as he was nominated everywhere else). Despite the film getting guild support everywhere (DGA, PGA, SAG, WGA), I just don't know if Tick, Tick... Boom! can handle the momentum of other films. Being the Ricardos, by contrast, has some heat, looking likely for a few major categories (including a potential acting win that could glow bright enough to give Bardem a few extra votes), and Don't Look Up has caught on as one of the more discussed films in contention.

5.

Leonardo DiCaprio- Don't Look UpCan Don't Look Up go without an acting nod? It's a movie with a sprawling cast, and DiCaprio is an Academy favorite. The BAFTA nomination, as well as how well that film did there overall, does hint at more support than previously expected. I could be looking for drama where there isn't, but the SAG five feels too obvious, as does DiCaprio over just Bardem.

Other Possibilities

6.

Andrew Garfield- Tick, Tick... Boom!

7.

Peter Dinklage- CyranoThe film just doesn't have heat. Blame a botched rollout. He's possible, but it feels unlikely.

8.

Nicolas Cage- PigHighly doubtful, but the Critics' Choice, at the very least, puts him in the spotlight. Crazier things have happened.

9.

Hidetoshi Nishijima- Drive My CarMaybe if Drive My Car does well enough? I don't know. Asian performers broke through here last year, I wouldn't rule a surprise for Nishijima out.

10.

Mahershala Ali- Swan SongBAFTA and HFPA support. The film's got no buzz, but Ali's well-liked in a dual role. I don't see it, but it's not unthinkable.

1.

Lady Gaga- House of GucciLast year Frances McDormand won this award as one of two women to score nominations at all of the major precursor awards (Critics, Globes, SAG, BAFTA). This year, Gaga is the only women to score nominations everywhere. Can she win? Stronger bet than I thought.

2.

Olivia Colman- The Lost DaughterKidman is ascending, but Colman will have backing from foreign and domestic voters. Not saying she's winning, but look out.

3.

Nicole Kidman- Being the RicardosIn, and currently looking like the frontrunner.

4.

Kristen Stewart- SpencerOnce the favorite, the SAG nod was a dagger for her chances of winning; no Oscar winner here every missed a SAG nomination. Assuming she misses at BAFTA, which she probably will (they don't like things that critique the crown), it looks rough. That said, I think she's been in the conversation so long that she still gets in. SAG rarely goes five-for-five with Oscar nods here (seven out of 27 years, but not since 2009), and re-examining treatment of female figures of the past is very in vogue at the moment. Biopic, empowerment, American with a British accent; I think there's too much Oscar-nip here. Don't be surprised with a miss though.

5.

Alana Haim- Licorice PizzaChastain is a lock to many, Hudson scored a surprise SAG nod, Cruz has been lurking all season, and Zegler won a Globe. I'm going with Haim though. The BAFTA nominations, weirdly, were the clincher. While voting changes their make major overlap nearly impossible, last year they did no worse than, at least, correlating two out of five nominees in every category. That category, with the lowest correlation, was in best actress. This year, they went mostly British again; Gaga, Haim, Emilia Jones (CODA), Renate Reinsve (The Worst Person in the World), Joanna Scanlan (After Love) and Tessa Thompson (Passing). Jones could be a solid spoiler bet, CODA is a player this year, while Thompson could too, (I wouldn't even rule out Reinsve), but Haim seems like an okay bet. The fact that the Brits went hard for Licorice Pizza shows me a real passion for the film; one that could tip the scales in a tight race.

Other Possibilities

6.

Rachel Zegler- West Side StoryIs she too young? Is West Side Story seen more as an ensemble picture? I don't know. Honestly, I had her in before the BAFTA nominations came out. If she'd shown up there, or SAG or even Critics Choice, I'd have felt safer keeping her in. As it is, I just don't know if the passion is there. We'll see.

7.

Jessica Chastain- The Eyes of Tammy FayeThere's always one who gets in everywhere, but get snubbed at the Oscars. I think it'll be Chastain this year. The film's only got heat in one other category; besides that, it has no heat. Every other woman here does.

8.

Jennifer Hudson- RespectPrevious winner with a SAG nomination, playing a real life character; solid ingredients for an Oscar nomination. Again though, this is a film with little to no traction. While she has a solid shot, that SAG nomination is a strong factor, I just don't feel it.

9.

Penelope Cruz- Parallel MothersSeemingly a contender, but she hasn't scored any major precursors. Not likely, but possible thanks to the reception and lingering presence of the film.

10.

Emilia Jones- CODABAFTA puts her in the game, and she could off a surprise is CODA is more beloved than expected. Still, it feels like her work here is more a preview of a future here.

1.

Ariana DeBose- West Side StoryShe seems to be in the driver's seat here. Not a guaranteed winner, but a safe lock for a nomination.

2.

Caitríona Balfe- BelfastPretty safe. She's scored all of the major precursor nomination, and there don't seem to be any drawbacks.

3.

Kirsten Dunst- The Power of the DogNominated everywhere but at BAFTA. She's in the BP frontrunner, and has a narrative that she due. I could see the snub, but I don't expect it.

4.

Aunjanue Ellis- King RichardMissed with SAG, but she's been nominated everywhere else (including, surprisingly, at the BAFTAs) and, typically, having a lead acting frontrunner helps score supporting players nominations and wins (Jennifer Connelly, Viola Davis, Marcia Gay Harden, Alicia Vikander, others).

5.

Ruth Negga- PassingI'm wrestling with this one. Negga's been nominated everywhere, sans Critics' Choice, and she's got a buzzed about role. But is Passing big enough to compete against a surprise contender? Ann Dowd scored a Critics' Choice and, surprisingly, a BAFTA nomination, and is a highly respected character actress hooking some great roles. Cate Blanchett got the SAG nod, and has two roles in prominent films (Don't Look Up and Nightmare Alley). Jessie Buckley has been bubbling under the surface, and just scored a BAFTA nomination. Rita Moreno is Rita Moreno, in a beloved film. Marlee Matlin is a stealth contender in a sentimental pick. Looking at those, I think Negga has the edge, but it is very close.

Other Possibilities

6.

Jessie Buckley- The Lost Daughter

7.

Ann Dowd- Mass

8.

Cate Blanchett- Nightmare Alley

9.

Rita Moreno- West Side Story

10.

Marlee Matlin- CODA

1.

Kodi Smit-McPhee- The Power of the DogThe early frontrunner.

2.

Troy Kotsur- CODAAll the precursor nominations, in a BP player; close to a lock.

3.

Jared Leto- House of Gucci#1 and #2 are the only truly safe bets here, with some wiggle room for the last three spots. There are several possible nominees, arguably the most open of the four acting races. Of them, I'd say Leto feels the safest. SAG and Critics' choice nominations are strong, coupled with the fact that, unlike his SAG/Globe nominated film (The Little Things) from last year, Gucci has some weight in other categories. The physical transformation stuff is another big boost that, I think, will push him over the top.

4.

Ciarán Hinds- BelfastThe SAG snubs for Hinds and costar Jamie Dornan were huge blows for both, and for Belfast's power overall (it's still a major player, but it harmed the idea that it was unimpeachable). Both costars could split the vote, and both could still get in, but I think Hinds still feels like a solid contender. The BAFTA nom helped him (Dornan, again, missed), as should the sentimental nature of the role (sage, loving grandfather). Plus, I still think Belfast has enough power to get him in.

5.

Bradley Cooper- Licorice PizzaAfter a season of snubs, SAG propelled Cooper into the race. It's a big, comedic, scene-stealing role that many wrote off for being too small (he's in the movie less than 10 minutes), that has, surprisingly, caught on. The fact that the film has such broad appeal only aids his chances. The wildest pick of the bunch, but I'm feeling okay about it. Moreover, there are less drawbacks to his nod that the other contenders.

Other Possibilities

6.

Jamie Dornan- BelfastCould still get in, absolutely, but, as mentioned, the SAG nomination miss hurt, and then he didn't score a BAFTA nod (as goofy as their new voting system is, it really would've helped his chances), and his role isn't as "big" as the other contenders here. I think he gets overlooked.

7.

Ben Affleck- The Tender BarSAG and Globe nominations are very important, as is the overdue narrative that may be building for him to score an acting nod, but The Tender Bar just doesn't have much heat. It's the kind of lovable, movie-stealing role that is typically rewarded here, but the film is flying way too under the radar.

8.

Mike Faist- West Side StoryA breakout role in a BP frontrunner is typically a precursor for an Oscar nomination. While I don't expect it for Faist, DeBose and Zegler have dominated so much of the acting buzz for the film and the BAFTA nomination is all he's scored (coupled with other noms, the modern BAFTA nomination is important, without...?), it wouldn't stun me to see him in the top five.

9.

Jesse Plemons- The Power of the DogAnother case where there's a BAFTA nomination on it's own, and an acting contender with other costars in the spotlight. Here, Plemmons has a main contending costar in the same category. It's not unthinkable, considering three of the past four years have seen this category score two nominations for a single film (Three Billboards, The Irishman, Judas and the Black Messiah), but Plemmons role in the film doesn't have the same pop as the others her (especially considering he's fairly absent for the last hour).

10.

J.K. Simmons- Being the RicarodsCritics' Choice nominee in a surging contender. Very possible, but this is the kind of role that should've attracted the acting branch, so the SAG snub is fairly telling.

1.

Jane Campion- The Power of the DogWinner.

2.

Sian Heder- CODALocked in.

3.

Maggie Gyllenhaal- The Lost DaughterNot a lock necessarily, but it would be stunning if she missed here.

4.

Ryusuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe- Drive My CarIf I'm taking it in Picture and Director, might as well go with screenplay, too. Honestly, though, this isn't a category that has much in the way of writerly. West Side Story is a musical adaptation of both a previous film and a stage play, Dune is a sumptuous visual masterwork with more grandeur than notable writing, Nightmare Alley falls in between those two, more writerly both visual-centric too. Tick, Tick... Boom! is another musical; i.e. working at a disadvantage because the music is going to be of greater focus than the screenwriting. With all of that in mind, Drive My Car seems the most likely; a three odyssey into grief and regret.

5.

Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve, and Eric Roth- DuneIt comes down to Dune and West Side Story for me, with the sci-fi epic getting the slight edge. My bet is that condensing and refining a sprawling novel into a coherent installment will be seen as the greater achievement over Tony Kushner's adaptation of the classic musical. He adds some smart touches throughout, but I just don't know if it's enough for voters to see anything new with Kushner's work. I also think that West Side Story's success will be seen more as Spielberg's directorial accomplishment than a screenwriting feat.

Other Possibilities

6.

Tony Kushner- West Side Story

7.

Guillermo del Toro and Kim Morgan- Nightmare Alley

8.

Steven Levenson- Tick, Tick...Boom!

9.

Joel Coen- The Tragedy of Macbeth

10.

Rebecca Hall- Passing

1.

Paul Thomas Anderson- Licorice Pizza#1-#3 are locks, with the top two the most likely to win.

2.

Kenneth Branagh- Belfast

3.

Adam McKay and David Sirota- Don't Look Up

4.

Aaron Sorkin- Being the RicardosLooks safe but, with a movie as safe as this, voters could look elsewhere. It's scored all of the necessary precursors though, (BAFTA, Critics, HFPA, WGA), and the film is looking likely to pull in a solid haul of nominations, so Sorkin will probably get his third straight screenplay nomination (and fifth of his last six)

5.

Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola, Hugo Guinness & Jason Schwartzman- The French DispatchBaylin is the easy choice, and probably correct, but I think Wes Anderson's got a trick up his sleeve. Original screenplay is, typically, the category for critical darlings; writers with a specific brand can breakout here in a way that they couldn't in other categories. Baylin's script has been acclaimed, but it doesn't have the specificity of The French Dispatch, nor would it be considered it's films strongest aspect. It scored every major precursor that one would need to (BAFTA, Critics', WGA) score an Oscar nomination. There's typically one that does that, however, and gets snubbed (Mank, Booksmart, I, Tonya, The Hateful Eight), and King Richard feels the most likely of the perceived locks. Of the awards bodies, nobody every really goes 5/5, but WGA has previewed some surprise players the last few years. Last year it predicted Judas and the Black Messiah, in 2019 1917, Straight Outta Compton in 2015, Dallas Buyers Club in 2013, Flight in 2012. There are others, but I think that gets the point across. To my discredit, those nominees are not necessarily that most original, but I think seeing where the writers branch is at is helpful. The French Dispatch scored that key WGA nod, and I think it's got the juice to pull off a surprise.

Other Possibilities

6.

Zach Baylin- King Richard

7.

Pedro Almodóvar- Parallel MothersMaybe. More international voters could certainly boost Almodóvar's chances, as well as the fact that it's been nearly 20 years since he's been nominated (and won) for screenplay.

1.

Probable winner.

2.

3.

4.

5.

Other Possibilities

6.

7.

8.

9.

10.

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

This last one is between Raya and Sing 2. Raya's got the reviews, but it came out before, even, last year's ceremony. I think Sing 2's recency and success will propel it in.

Other Possibilities

6.

7.

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

Other Possibilities

6.

7.

8.

9.

10.

1.

Hans Zimmer- DuneNot the mile-out frontrunner, but certainly sitting in pole position.

2.

Jonny Greenwood- The Power of the DogLock.

3.

Alexandre Desplat- The French Dispatch
He missed last year (for The Midnight Sky), but Desplat has scored two straight nominations collaborating with Wes Anderson, and his work has picked up precursor nominations everywhere. Solid bet.

4.

Nicolas Britell- Don't Look UpAfter those top three, we get a bit scattered. Do Greenwood (The Power of the Dog and Spencer) or Zimmer (for Dune and his bombastic booms romantic swoons in No Time to Die)dual nominations? Would they actually nominate Candyman (shortlisted)? Can The Last Duel finally get some recognition? Likely not, for any of those, but it's not entirely out of the question. Most likely is that they go with the music from their favorite films and, for some reason, Don't Look Up is a favorite this year. Britell's terrific, as per usual, score has scored nominations with BAFTA and the Critics', who both, typically, go about 4/5. Britell seems likely.

5.

Germaine Franco- EncantoI suspect that this last spot will come down to Franco and Alberto Iglesias. Both scored Golden Globe nominations, while Franco is likely to score a nomination in the other music category. Iglesias has three previous nominations, and his work here is strong, but Encanto has really blown up for the last month or so, with many lauding both the music itself and the impact it has had on Latinx representation. It feels like the momentum is a bit too much. Another useless stat; Iglesias's three previous nominations were preceded by BAFTA nominations, and he didn't receive one this year. Adding to this, I'm not entirely sure Parallel Mothers is going to have much play, as it hasn't had any, really, throughout the season.

Other Possibilities

6.

Alberto Iglesias- Parallel Mothers

7.

Hans Zimmer- No Time to DiePossible, though I think BAFTA would've lauded him first. Plus, despite a strong record in the other music category (where it'll likely be recognized this year), only two 007 films have been nominated here (The Spy Who Loved Me and Skyfall).

8.

Daniel Pemberton- SpencerThe BAFTA nomination gives in play, as does the film's ascension, but it still feels like a longshot. That's the trouble with Sorkin films; you spend so much time focusing on the dialogue that you forget the score.

9.

Jonny Greenwood- SpencerPossible, but the film has flatlined overall. Maybe, but probably not.

10.

Carter Burwell- The Tragedy of Macbeth

1.

"No Time to Die"- No Time to DieProbable winner.

2.

"Dos Oruguitas"- EncantoProbably in, though they blew it by not submitting "We Don't Talk About Bruno".

3.

"Just Look Up"- Don't Look UpAfter those top picks, it's a crapshoot. I'll take "Just Look Up" because it's a big song, and one from a BP contender.

4.

"Be Alive"- King RichardAnother "because it's a BP player" pick, but more wobbly that #3, largely because the Academy doesn't seem to like Beyonce. She missed with The Lion King, she missed with Cadillac Records, and she missed with Dreamgirls despite the song from that film, "Listen", being nomination (she was listed as a songwriter, but the Academy determined that she didn't contribute enough). Feels likely, but I would not be surprised, at all, to see her miss out here.

5.

"Somehow You Do"- Four Good DaysThey will nominated Diane Warren for everything until they relent and give her this damn award. Until then, films like this (and Beyond the Lights, Breakthrough, The Life Ahead, Marshall) will inexplicably be prefaced with "Oscar Nominee". It is a tougher year though, and they may, finally, snub her. Jennifer Hudson & Carol Kane have one from Respect. Van Morrison's "Down to Joy" played throughout Belfast, a much more beloved film (though I'd prefer one of his anti-vax BANGERS!; I actually wonder if that shit will keep him from making it in, despite a Globe nod). Jay-Z is in the race with a song from The Harder They Fall. CODA has one. It could go numerous ways.

Other Possibilities

6.

"Down to Joy"- Belfast

7.

"Here I Am (Singing My Way Home)"- Respect

8.

"Beyond the Shore"- CODA

9.

"Guns Go Bang"- The Harder They Fall

10.

"Automatic Woman"- Bruised

1.

Greig Fraser- DuneProbable winner. #1-#3 seem pretty locked in.

2.

Ari Wegner- The Power of the Dog

3.

Bruno Delbonnel- The Tragedy of Macbeth

4.

Janusz Kaminski- West Side StoryThe ASC and BAFTA misses are worrying, but I'm still taking Kaminski here. While the B&W memories in Belfast and the moody period nightmares of Nightmare Alley have some beautiful imagery (they also have ASC nominations, as do the three above), I think voters will be moved by the dizzying camerawork and fluid dance numbers that Kaminski puts on in WSS. Also, this category likes established names, which Kaminski most certainly is; two wins off of six nominations. It's probable that I'm backing a slow horse, but my gut is telling me he pulls it off.

5.

Dan Laustsen- Nightmare AlleyWhy am I predicting a Belfast snub? It's a beloved BP favorite that scored ASC and BAFTA award nominations with crisp black-and-white photography in a category that has rewarded black-and-white films two out of the past three years. I'm a dumbass, right? Allow me justify my picks. This category likes two things, above all else; pretty images and cultivated images, or difficult, specific images. Belfast has pretty images, but Nightmare Alley and West Side Story do, too, and they also have more cultivated lighting and camerawork. As good as Haris Zambarloukos's work is, it can often appear as just a standard image in black-and-white. This is especially noticeable when compared to this category's other B&W film, the gorgeously lit and shot Macbeth. Probably wrong, but we'll see.

Other Possibilities

6.

Haris Zambarloukos- Belfast

7.

Linus Sandgren- No Time to DieBAFTA nominee, so it's in the hunt. It'd be hard for it to breakthrough those top six, though. Possible, but not probable.

1.

Patrice Vermette and Zsuzsanna Sipos- DuneLooking like the likely winner.

2.

Tamara Deverell and Shane Vieau- Nightmare AlleyLock.

3.

Adam Stockhausen and Rena DeAngelo- West Side StoryLooks likely, though not at the level of the first two.

4.

Adam Stockhausen and Rena DeAngelo- The French DispatchIt's looking like a double-nomination year for Stockhausen and DeAngelo. It's not quite a lock, because it's not the most talked about film, but Wes Anderson's last movie, The Grand Budapest Hotel won, and it's scored ADG and BAFTA nominations. Beautiful work that will, probably, be rewarded.

5.

Stefan Dechant and Nancy Haigh- The Tragedy of MacbethThis last one comes down to, likely, Macbeth and Cyrano. The latter scored an important BAFTA nod, while the latter got the ADG nod, and seems to have the momentum (MGM really botched Cyrano's release. I suppose something like Belfast could sneak in, if the film really does well, or Licorice Pizza, or even No Time to Die (though the BAFTA snub for it likely kneecapped it's chances), but this isn't the most flush category.

Other Possibilities

6.

Sarah Greenwood and Katie Spencer- Cyrano

7.

Jim Clay and Claire Nia Richards- Belfast

8.

Florencia Martin and Ryan Watson- Licorice Pizza

9.

Mark Tildesley and Véronique Melery- No Time to Die

10.

Fiona Crombey and Alice Felton- Cruella

1.

Jenny Beaven- CruellaProbable winner.

2.

Robert Morgan and Jacqueline West- DuneHonestly, I'm not entirely certain of any nominees outside of #1, but Dune has been the most consistently nominated, alongside Cruella, with precursors, so it seems safe.

3.

Janty Yates- House of GucciMissed at the BAFTA awards, but I expect the Oscars to go with Yates here. This category loves movies about fashion (Cruella, Phantom Thread, The Devil Wears Prada), and what does the Gucci brand scream if not fashion (well, aside from murder).

4.

Luis Sequeira- Nightmare AlleyDespite the film not looking great overall, Sequeira's work has shown up at all the major precursors (BAFTA, CDG, Critics' Choice). Not a lock, but looks safe.

5.

Milena Canonero- The French DispatchAfter a rather cool few months after release, The French Dispatch has popped up in a few spots, including a surprise BAFTA nomination for costume design. More than any other Oscar category, this category loves repeat contenders. While last year saw three of the five nominees as first timers, it's primarily return nominees; old Academy favorites that have fan bases. Canonero has nine nominations and four previous wins, including for Wes Anderson's last film The Grand Budapest Hotel; i.e. she's a living legend. Taking that into account, as well as the fact that Dispatch has some typically vivid, European-inspired costumes, I think she pulls off a surprise nomination here. Tazewell is the predicted pick, and could easily make the cut, but I think voters will take two things into account with WSS; the costumes aren't as vivid as the other contenders here, nor or they as bright and dazzling as the 1961 version's. They love pretty here and, despite some lovely work, they don't stack up to the other contenders here.

Other Possibilities

6.

Paul Tazewell- West Side Story

7.

Massimo Cantini Parrini- CyranoScored BAFTA and CDG nominations, and Parrini is coming off of a nomination last year for Pinocchio, the this could be a solid spoiler. Holding it back from my top five is, however, the fact that the film hasn't been released in the U.S. yet, and MGM has mangled it's release. I just don't know how many people have seen it.

8.

Mary Zophres- The Tragedy of MacbethHere's a wildcard I wish I had the balls to bet on. I'm sure she won't, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Zophres sneak in here. If she'd just picked up any precursors, I'd have had her in (like her 2018 BAFTA nod for The Ballad of Buster Scruggs previewed an Oscar nomination).

9.

Ruth E. Carter- Coming 2 AmericaA wild, wild, wild longshot that has a mild chance. Carter's a recent winner, and the original film scored a nomination.

1. Joe Walker- Dune
2. Peter Sciberras- The Power of the Dog
3. Úna Ní Dhonghaíle- Belfast
4. Michael Kahn and Sarah Broshar- West Side Story
5. Andy Jurgensen- Licorice Pizza

Other Possibilities
6. Tom Cross and Elliot Graham- No Time to Die
7. Hank Corwin- Don't Look Up
8. Joshua L. Pearson- Summer of Soul
9. Pamela Martin- King Richard
10. Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum- Tick, Tick... Boom!

1. Dune
2. West Side Story
3. No Time to Die
4. The Power of the Dog
5. A Quiet Place Part II

Other Possibilities
6. Belfast
7. Last Night in Soho
8. Tick, Tick... Boom!
9. Spider-Man: No Way Home
10. The Matrix Resurrections

1.

DuneTammy Faye is No. #1 on most boards, but I think Dune might take this one.

2.

The Eyes of Tammy Faye

3.

House of GucciLikely.

4.

CruellaProbable, mostly for the hairstyles.

5.

The Suicide SquadAfter the top four, it's something of a crapshoot. BAFTA took Cyrano, along with the above four; Critics' Choice picked Nightmare Alley; the Makeup Artists Guild nominated all of the remaining contenders for something, with Coming 2 America and Suicide Squad scoring Special Makeup Effects nominations (for heavy prosthetics). I could see any of them making it in, but I'm playing reasonably safe and taking the Squad. Eddie Murphy movies have a pretty strong history here, but direct sequels don't (unless their original was snubbed; Coming to America was). That would, also, preclude The Suicide Squad, but I think most see it more as a reboot than a sequel. West Side Story could sneak in too, but this category has often avoided just rubber stamping a BP contender (if Once Upon a Time in Hollywood couldn't make the cut a couple of years ago...).

Other Possibilities

6.

Coming to America

7.

West Side Story

8.

Cyrano

9.

Nightmare Alley

10.

No Time to Die

1.

DuneWinner.

2.

The Matrix ResurrectionsDune is the only lock, but The Matrix has been a surprisingly steady presence in VFX categories throughout the season. BAFTA, Critics' Choice and VFX society nominee; feels safe.

3.

No Time to DieBAFTA, Critics, VES nominee; the Oscars have been going more practical/subtle here the past few years. Feels likely.

4.

Spider-Man: No Way HomeThere are three Marvel movies in contention this year, but I'd wager No Way Home is the likeliest nominee of the bunch. Some of the effects in the film have been criticized, but I doubt the Academy wants to leave the year's biggest movie out in the cold. BAFTA snub could be something, but I think it's in.

5.

Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten RingsSnubbed at BAFTA, but VES nominee. I don't know, man. Free Guy and Ghostbusters: Afterlife scored BAFTA nominations, and Godzilla vs. Kong got a VES nomination. There are, also, two other Marvel films that could box it out (Black Widows and Eternals). It just feels right, though. Some of the visuals seen in Shang-Chi are the most striking in recent MCU memory, and the Asian representational value of the film overall strike the right cords. It's a very close race, but I think American voters will think of this one more than other contenders.

Other Possibilities

6.

Godzilla vs. KongThey do love them some big ape movies (other Kong films, the recent Planet of the Apes trilogy, The One and Only Ivan last year), though, so don't be shocked to see this one slip in.

7.

Ghostbusters: Afterlife

8.

Free Guy

9.

Eternals

10.

Black Widow