If There Had Been 10

Amélie and Black Hawk Down would've been the first ones in; Amélie scored five noms, including one's for best foreign film and screenplay, and also score a BP nod at the BAFTAs. Hawk made cracked the directing category, as well as a key editing win. Somewhat shockingly, I'd put Shrek in next; it won the first ever animated feature award, picked up a screenplay nod, and got top-prize mentions at both the BAFTAs and the PGAs. Memento would've probably come into play as well. Picking up key nominations for writing and editing, as well as a DGA nomination for Nolan, it seems like a stronger bet than anything left. Lastly, it came down to the first Harry Potter and Monster's Ball; in that bout, I'd give the edge to Ball. While The Sorcerer's Stone nabbed a surprise PGA nom, I'd bet that voters would've seen it as too juvenile or populist to compare to a sobering look at race in the south.

Likelihood of Nomination
6. Amélie
7. Black Hawk Down
8. Shrek
9. Memento
10. Monster's Ball

Adaptation. and Talk to Her would've been the first two in in a ten picture year. Talk to Her got a surprise Best Director nomination and won for it's screenplay, and Adaptation. scored three acting nominations with a script one, as well as top-prize nominations at the PGAs and the SAGs. Road to Perdition was another PGA nominee, as well as a six-timer on Oscar night. It wouldn't have hurt that it was from a director coming of a BP & BD win, and a studio that was at the height of it's powers.

The last two spots are pretty close. While My Big Fat Greek Wedding only grabbed a screenplay nomination, it also got PGA and SAG nominations; two credentials that most BP nominees have. #10 came down to Far from Heaven and Frida. Frida got more nominations, 6 to Heaven's 4, but Far from Heaven managed to pick up a screenplay nomination, a great indicator for BP picks. Neither picked up many kudos elsewhere; the only real leg up was that Heaven got a nomination at the Critics' Choice Awards. As it is, I'd say Far from Heaven would've been the one.

Likelihood of Nomination
6. Talk to Her
7. Adaptation.
8. Road to Perdition
9. My Big Fat Greek Wedding
10. Far from Heaven

Once we make it past the top five, there's three movies that pop out immediately. Cold Mountain received the most noms of any film not nominated for Best Picture (7) and it's the type of old-Hollywood spectacle that would've easily won over older voters. City of God was arguably the year's second biggest indie (the first being Lost in Translation), and the fact that the film's director Fernando Meirelles made the cut in a very competitive year only leads me to believe that it was very well liked among the academy. Last but not least is Pixar's Finding Nemo, which was universally loved and strong enough to make it into the Screenplay category, which is pretty difficult for an animated film.

That leaves us two final spots, with about five or six viable options. If you based it on what movie got more nominations, the final two spots would go to the original Pirates of the Caribbean (5 noms) and The Last Samurai (4). However, both of those movies received most of their nominations in below-the-line (aside from one acting nom for each) categories, where movies like Norbit and Revenge of the Fallen have thrived. That's not to say the films are bad, they aren't, but to suggest that reading into below-the-line categories to gage top prize contenders is a tough ride. Having said all of that though, I think that The Last Samurai would've of made the cut. Like Cold Mountain it's an old-school epic with a big star. Add in Picture nods at the Critic's choice and Golden Globe awards, and it looks pretty probable.

To cap things off, I'll take Jim Sheridan's In America. It was a critical darling, and Sheridan has always been pretty well liked by the Academy (or was in 2003). Other contenders include Big Fish (too oddball), The Barbarian Invasions (too foreign; foreign movies can make it in, but they have to have HUGE hype), House of Sand and Fog (too small) and 21 Grams (too depressing).

Likelihood of Nomination
6. Cold Mountain
7. City of God
8. Finding Nemo
9. The Last Samurai
10. In America

2004 is a bit more scattered than 2003; not because there weren't more deserving movies, but because the precursor awards really shared the love with their nominations. As for surefire inclusions, I would say there are three, maybe four. Mike Leigh's Vera Drake would seem to be the most likely; he earned a direction nom, indicating a high level of respect for the film. With some extra spots in the BP category, I think it would've been a lock. Next up probably would've been The Incredibles. It was a huge critical and commercial hit, and Pixar was at the height of it's powers (and respect). At #8, I'll go with Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind. It's the kind of small, quirky critic's hit that the expansion was made for. Add in the screenplay win, and seems like a sure thing.

Like 2003, the last two spots are a bit hazy, but there are a couple that I think would've stood out. Hotel Rwanda picked up a couple acting nods, and a screenplay one to boot. With it's important message and widespread appeal, I think it would've likely made the cut. It was also nominated at the Critic's Choice and Golden Globe awards, for all of the hardware sticklers out there.

#10 is really tough. On the one hand, Mike Nichols' Closer was really being promoted the hell out of, with it showing up at every award ceremony, though usually only for Clive Owen and Natalie Portman's supporting work. It didn't make the cut in adapted screenplay though, and with critical support waning as the season went on, I don't think it would've made it. Kinsey was another that was being thrown around, but it always felt like more of an outlier than an actual contender. I'll go with the little-seen The Motorcycle Diaries for the last spot. It was well-liked by critic, and was nominated for two Oscars, winning one. It was close, but I think that they would've opted to go for something smaller. Other contenders include Michael Mann's Collateral, Maria Full of Grace and Spider-Man 2

Likelihood of Nomination
6. Vera Drake
7. The Incredibles
8. Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
9. Hotel Rwanda
10. The Motorcycle Diaries

Walk the Line had won the Golden Globe for Best Musical/Comedy, it's leads were nominated, and it was the height of the Musical-Biopic craze that swept through Hollywood in the mid 2000s. It would've been in. So too would The Constant Gardener have been; it was nominated at the Globes and the BAFTAs, along with four other Oscar nods. King Kong probably would have made it too. Critical approval has waned over the years but, at the time, it was a huge hit, and Peter Jackson's prestige hadn't yet worn off (The Lovely Bones and The Hobbit trilogy would undo his clout later).

That, once again, leaves two spots. #9 would've likely been Cinderella Man. It was Ron Howard's follow-up to the Best Picture winning A Beautiful Mind and while they praise wasn't unanimous, it's story was the kind of rousing, old-school fare that would fit the Oscar mold. Finally, I'll go with Syriana for the last spot. A History of Violence and Memoirs of a Geisha would've been close, but I don't think they could overcome Syriana's timeliness (story about oil).

Likelihood of Nomination
6. Walk the Line
7. The Constant Gardener
8. King Kong
9. Cinderella Man
10. Syriana

Dreamgirls led all nominees and United 93 cracked the Director category, leading me to believe that they would've been the first up. Next I'll take Pan's Labyrinth; while it did end up losing Foreign Film, it had a lot of support (it won 3 oscars, and even cracked the screenplay category.

Things, as usual, get fuzzy with the last two spots. Children of Men got three noms, but was never nominated for the top prize anywhere else, and was likely seen by most Academy members as nothing more than an above-average sci-fi/action flick. The Last King of Scotland was well-received, but it was never really seen as great film, rather a great performance piece for Forrest Whitaker. Notes on a Scandal probably has a better chance than the two, but it always rang more as a movie that was respected rather than admired. Also of note, it missed out on it's home country England's BAFTAs in favor of The Last King. And then there's Bobby. Every few years, there's at least one movie that people look back on and think "why was this in the conversation?" Bobby was 2006's "What?" My final two picks then, are Blood Diamond and Little Children.

Little Children had been in the race all season, picking up Best Picture nods at the Globes and Critic's Choice Awards. Adding the the acting and screenplay nominations it got, and I feel relatively positive it would've made it. Diamond only got mixed-to-positive reviews, and wasn't a big box office smash, but considering it picked five nods, including two acting and editing, I think it was more well liked than we were led to believe. It also picked up a Critic's Choice best picture nod, and director Edward Zwick has always been in the Academy's good graces.

Likelihood of Nomination
6. Dreamgirls
7. United 93
8. Pan's Labyrinth
9. Little Children
10. Blood Diamond

The Diving Bell and the Butterfly was one of the most buzzed about movies of the year and received four nominations, including a Best Director nod that many people thought could be won. If it had been even a 6 movie year, it would've made it in. Ratatouille would've likely made it in too; it was Pixar's big comeback after Cars, and it scored powerful noms like Original Screenplay and Score. The Academy love them some musicals, even if they're from the warped mind of Tim Burton. Adding in the numerous Best Picture nominations at other awards ceremonies, including a Golden Globe win for Musical/Comedy, and it would've looked pretty good for Sweeney Todd.

I feel a bit more confident in my #9 and #10 picks than I did in previous years. Into the Wild was a critical darling, and had done well with the Guilds (Directors, Writers, Actors, etc.). American Gangster wasn't a runaway critical smash, but it had been nominated for top prize at the Globes, SAG, and Critic's Choice awards, and it was a box office smash. Others that would've contended: 3:10 to Yuma, La Vie en Rose, The Bourne Ultimatum, The Kite Runner, Lars and the Real Girl, and Enchanted (What a hell of year). Any of them could've honestly made it in, but I'm sticking with my ten.


Likelihood of Nomination
6. The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
7. Ratatouille
8. Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
9. Into the Wild
10. American Gangster

The Dark Knight, Wall-E, and Doubt all would've been locks if there had been ten nominees. Knight was the biggest movie of the year, and had been nominated at most of the major guilds including the PGA, DGA, and WGA. Wall-E was another Pixar classic, and would receive five nods that year. Doubt had hung around all season, and it would've played hugely with the actor's branch. I feel pretty solid that #9 would've probably been Revolutionary Road. While it didn't get much help from the Guilds, it did pick up a nod at the Globes, and considering Michael Shannon's surprise nom, it may have been more widely liked than we thought.

#10 is a bit loose. The Wrestler could've contended, but I think most looked at it for the acting rather than the film as a whole. Some might throw Vicky Cristina Barcelona in there, and while it's a fair guess, the lack of a screenplay nod gives me pause. In the end, I think they would've sided with Clint and taken Changeling. It was relatively well-liked (it got eight BAFTA noms, and a Picture nod at BFCAs), and it was a prestige drama that was begging for consideration.

Likelihood of Nomination
6. The Dark Knight
7. WALL·E
8. Doubt
9. Revolutionary Road
10. Changeling

There are really numerous movies that could go here. Bridesmaids was hot, A Seperation managed to crack the Original Screenplay category, The Ides of March had hung in all season, and Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy had a surprisingly strong showing. In the end though, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo just had the momentum; it picked up nods at the DGA, WGA, SAG, and Editors Guild awards. Add the five nominations it got, and the key editing win, and it just looks too strong to beat.

Likelihood of Nomination
10. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

2012 honestly included most of the big players. The only other two that I think could've made it in are Skyfall and Moonrise Kingdom. While Skyfall did get five noms, and won two, I think that the Academy would've went with Anderson's film. It was the more awards-friendly of the two, and Skyfall always carried around the stigma of an action movie. And while they both made the cut at the PGA awards, Moonrise was also tipped by the WGA, BFCA (Critic's Choice), HFPA (Globes), Skyfall was not.

Likelihood of Nomination
10. Moonrise Kingdom

This comes down to Blue Jasmine, Inside Llewyn Davis, and Saving Mr. Banks. Davis had a disappointing season, and the fact that it pretty much failed to get any guild recognition leads me to believe that it would've failed here too. Mr. Banks fared okay throughout, but the fact that it only managed to get one nod, and star Emma Thompson got snubbed, I think it would've miss out. That leaves Jasmine it did well on the Guild circuit, and Woody Allen has always been an Academy golden-boy.

Likelihood of Nomination
10. Blue Jasmine

It's not an unreasonable assumption to take Foxcatcher at #9. It got five nomination, including a Best Director nod over filmmakers of several Picture nominees. #10 would've been close; Gone Girl was a massive hit, but Nightcrawler did incredibly well at the guilds, with many shocked that it didn't make the cut.

Likelihood of Nomination
9. Foxcatcher
10. Nightcrawler

These last two seem as though they would've been pretty clear. Carol was a critical darling that had a lot of respect, and six other nominations (i.e. broad support), while Straight Outta Compton had had a surprisingly strong showing on the guild circuit, strong top place nods at the PGAs, SAGs, and WGAs. Sicario would've also been a strong candidate but, as I've said before, it always seemed more like an overachiever than a legit contender.

Likelihood of Nomination
9. Carol
10. Straight Outta Compton