2013 Academy Awards Predictions

**12 Years a Slave


*American Hustle


*Captain Phillips


*Gravity


*Her


*Inside Llewyn Davis


*Nebraska


*Saving Mr. Banks


*The Wolf of Wall Street


For now, 12 Years a Slave seems to be the odds on favorite to take the top prize, with Gravity running second. Saving Mr. Banks is pure Oscar bait, and will likely make it in, along with Tom Hanks' other picture Captain Phillips. While Hustle and Wolf have yet to be seen, the pedigree behind each inspires confidence. David O. Russell's last two movies (The Fighter and Silver Linings Playbook) were big Academy favorites, and his latest seems to be right up the same alley. With the exception of Shutter Island in 2010, all of Scorsese's movies of the last decade have been major players.

After those six, things start to get really mirky. Nebraska has gotten some great reviews, and looks to extend Alexander Payne's streak. The main problem for Payne and Co. could be that voters find the movie too small and obscure. The same could be said of Spike Jonze's latest Her. While it's got amazing reviews, it seems to be a bit weird for the Academy, though if there's one director weird enough for voters to rally behind, it's Jonze. His films Being John Malkovich and Adaptation were both in the similar vein, and they did very well. And finally there's Inside Llweyn Davis from the Coen Brothers. The Academy loves the Coens, and if A Serious Man could make it in, this should be a cakewalk right?

**Alfonso Cuarón- Gravity


*Paul Greengrass- Captain Phillips


*Steve McQueen- 12 Years a Slave


*David O. Russell- American Hustle


*Martin Scorsese- The Wolf of Wall Street


While I think 12 Years a Slave will probably win several, it may lose here. McQueen is probably the frontrunner, but my gut tells me he and Cuarón are going to be in a dog fight until the very end. Like Life of Pi last year, the Academy seems to prefer the director of the more challenging film (though it helped that Ben Affleck wasn't nominated). Greengrass seems like a lock at this point to, with Captain Phillips being both a critical and commercial success. Like I previously mentioned, Russell and Scorsese's films have yet to be seen, but if there good, they'll probably be in. Alexander Payne, Spike Jonze, and the Coen brothers are still in the race though.

**Chiwetel Ejiofor- 12 Years a Slave


*Bruce Dern- Nebraska


*Tom Hanks- Captain Phillips


*Matthew McConaughey- Dallas Buyer's Club


*Robert Redford- All is Lost


This is pretty much a toss up category. The five listed all seem like locks, with not much outside competition. Leonardo DiCaprio could spoil for The Wolf of Wall Street, as could Christian Bale for American Hustle, but their performances have yet to be seen.

**Cate Blanchett- Blue Jasmine


*Sandra Bullock- Gravity


*Judi Dench- Philomena


*Meryl Streep- August: Osage County


*Emma Thompson- Saving Mr. Banks


As with the best actor category, this one seems locked up, with only Amy Adams in American Hustle to challenge.

**Lupita Nyong'o- 12 Years a Slave


*Jennifer Lawrence- American Hustle


*Julia Roberts- August: Osage County


*June Squibb- Nebraska


*Oprah Winfrey- Lee Daniels' The Butler


Winfrey, Nyong'o, and Squibb seem safe for the moment. Roberts is essentially the lead in August: Osage County, but she's competing in the lead to make way for Meryl Streep, the more likely contender. From the clips that I've seen, and the few words I've heard on the film, Lawrence seems like the stand-out in the cast of American Hustle. Octavia Spencer for Fruitvale Station appears to be close here too. And Scarlett Johansson's voice acting in Her is getting a major push from Warner Bros.

**Michael Fassbender- 12 Years a Slave


*Bradley Cooper- American Hustle


*Tom Hanks- Saving Mr. Banks


*Jonah Hill- The Wolf of Wall Street


*Jared Leto- Dallas Buyer's Club


Out of all the acting categories, this one has the most potential nominees. Fassbender, Hanks, and Leto are pretty much locks at this point. Cooper was nominated last year, and I'm guessing that the love he got last year will extend to this year too, and Hill looks pretty solid from the footage I've seen. But there are so many possibilities here...

Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips)
Daniel Bruhl (Rush)
James Franco (Spring Breakers, doesn't have a shot, but it was possibly the most entertaining performance of the year.)
Will Forte (Nebraska)
James Gandolfini (Enough Said)
John Goodman (Inside Llewyn Davis)
Jeremy Renner (American Hustle)

**Spike Jonze- Her


*Woody Allen- Blue Jasmine


*Joel & Ethan Coen- Inside Llewyn Davis


*Bob Nelson- Nebraska


*David O. Russell and Eric Singer- American Hustle


Most of the nominees here seem fairly likely, considering that 4/6 of them are previous nominees. Kelly Marcel and Sue Smith's work for Saving Mr. Banks has a solid shot, but from all I've read, the script is one of the weaker points of the film.

**John Ridley- 12 Years a Slave


*Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke & Richard Linklater- Before Midnight


*Tracy Letts- August: Osage County


*Billy Ray- Captain Phillips


*Terrence Winter- The Wolf of Wall Street

**Emmanuel Lubezki- Gravity


*Barry Ackroyd- Captain Phillips


*Sean Bobbitt- 12 Years a Slave


*Roger Deakins- Prisoners


*Anthony Dod Mantle- Rush


Gravity seems poised to take most of the technical awards, and I doubt that stops here. It also doesn't hurt that Lubezki's been shut out six previous times.

**Alfonso Cuarón & Mark Sanger- Gravity


*Jay Cassidy & Crispin Struthers- American Hustle


*Daniel P. Hanley & Mike Hill- Rush


*Christopher Rouse- Captain Phillips


*Joe Walker- 12 Years a Slave


I've stated previously that Gravity is the heavy favorite in every technical category, and there's no difference here. 12 Years a Slave could win if it starts to dominate, and Captain Phillips could take this one too.

*Hans Zimmer- 12 Years a Slave


*Randy Newman- Monsters University


*Thomas Newman- Saving Mr. Banks
Not Available

*Steven Price- Gravity


*John Williams- The Book Thief

**"Let it Go" by Kristen Anderson-Lopez & Robert Lopez- Frozen


*"Young and Beautiful" by Lana Del Rey & Rick Nowels- The Great Gatsby


*"So You Know What It's Like" by Keith Stanfield- Short Term 12


*"In The Middle of the Night" by Fantastia Barrino- Lee Daniels' The Butler


*"The Moon Song" by Karen O- Her


Who knows. The song category is always so out of whack, and will likely be again this year.

**Catherine Martin- The Great Gatsby


*Patricia Norris- 12 Years a Slave


*Daniel Orlandi- Saving Mr. Banks


*Michael Wilkinson- American Hustle


*Mary Zophres- Inside Llewyn Davis

**Catherine Martin & Beverly Dunn- The Great Gatsby


*Alice Baker & Adam Stochausen- 12 Years a Slave


*Susan Benjamin & Michael Corenblith- Saving Mr. Banks


*Susan Bode & Jess Gonchor- Inside Llewyn Davis


*Dan Hennah & Ra Vincent- The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug


I'm going with Gatsby mainly because it's the flashiest, but it would not surprise me if The Hobbit or 12 Years a Slave took this one, or even Gravity making it's way into the category.

**The Wind Rises


*The Croods


*Despicable Me 2


*Frozen


*Monsters University


This was a really weak year for animation, and I therefore really have no clue. Monsters University and Despicable Me 2 were huge hits, and seem somewhat safe (more so M.U.). Frozen's early reviews suggest a fun film, so why not? The Wind Rises seems like the favorite here by a mile. It's gotten stellar reviews, and it's Hayao Miyazaki's supposed final film.

**Wadjda


*The Broken Circle Breakdown


*Gloria


*The Hunt


*The Past

**Gravity


*All is Lost


*Captain Phillips


*Rush


*12 Years a Slave

**Gravity


*All is Lost


*Captain Phillips


*Man of Steel


*Rush

**The Hobbit: Desolation of Smaug


*Lee Daniels' The Butler


*Rush


This is a fairly scant year for makeup work. By images, The Hobbit seems the favorite, and likely winner. Spoilers here would by Oz the Great and Powerful and American Hustle (just look at those fucking hairdos).

**Gravity


*The Hobbit: Desolation of Smaug


*Man of Steel


*Rush


*The Secret Life of Walter Mitty


Gravity wins. The end.