If There Had Been 5

2009 presents us with the five most obvious nominees in the 5+ nominee field, and maybe even ever. Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Precious, and Up in the Air were nominated for the top prize at basically every other award show. I genuinely can't imagine any of the other nominees knocking one of these five out. If one of them were to miss out it likely would've been Basterds, the least baity of the bunch (probably usurped by Up), but that still likely wouldn't have happened.

Likelihood of Nomination
1. The Hurt Locker
2. Avatar
3. Up in the Air
4. Precious
5. Inglourious Basterds

The King's Speech and The Social Network were locks from the beginning, The Fighter had steadily grown into a favorite and Black Swan had been in the running since the beginning. Those four seemed pretty safe. One that many would call a lock was Inception, considering it was a massive hit and would likely sweep the technical categories, but I think the Academy would've gone a different route and given the last spot to True Grit. Evidence: the movie received a whopping ten nominations, including in the Best Director category, where many assumed that Christopher Nolan was a lock. They screwed The Dark Knight, so it isn't the wildest assumption.

Likelihood of Nomination
1. The King's Speech
2. The Social Network
3. The Fighter
4. Black Swan
5. True Grit

The Artist, The Descendants and Hugo were massive locks, with Midnight in Paris looking pretty solid at #4. The fifth spot would've likely gone to either The Help or The Tree of Life, leading me to leaning toward the former. The Tree of Life just seemed liked a movie that more people respected than actually liked, accounting for Mallick's Best Director nomination. The Help went over big in the actor's branch and was the only box-office smash of the potential nominees, leading me to believe it would've (and did) make the cut.

Likelihood of Nomination
1. The Artist
2. Hugo
3. The Descendants
4. Midnight in Paris
5. The Help

Argo and Lincoln were the two obvious locks going into nomination morning, Silver Linings Playbook was a crowd-pleaser, and had the ever important Weinstein tag on it, and Life of Pi had hung on all throughout the season. Assuming that those four were locked in (they were), the only real question mark would be the fifth spot. Zero Dark Thirty was clearly the critic's favorite but, judging by Bigelow's director snub, it didn't have the support that many expected. Some would probably argue that maybe Argo didn't have much support either given Affleck's snub, but considering that it won the Critic's Choice and Golden Globe awards for best film, which were voted on before the noms, that argument just doesn't fit with me. Amour and Beasts of the Southern Wild were clearly well liked considering their surprising showing of five and four nominations, respectively, but they seemed more respected than liked, and despite the fact that Michael Haneke and Benh Zietlin both made it into the director race, I don't think that either could overtake the other potential nominees, or spoil nods for Pi or Silver Linings. That leaves Django Unchained and Les Miserables, both of whom were giant financial successes. Speaking honestly, I would have to say that, while it was clearly well liked enough to win two awards, Django probably had the weakest chance of winning of the nine nominees. Les Miserables, while also not having a shot in hell at winning, was the type of prestige designed for awards, and the Academy would went along with plan.

Likelihood of Nomination
1. Argo
2. Lincoln
3. Silver Linings Playbook
4. Life of Pi
5. Les Misérables

2013 is a bit tricky. 12 Years a Slave, Gravity and American Hustle were all locked in and it, at one point, appeared that any of them could win. After that, things get pretty murky at #4 and #5. Out of the other six nominated films, Captain Phillips seems like the safest bet. While it never really managed to win anything major, it was present at every major awards ceremony, and it was a critical and commercial hit, something that never hurts. Number five could really have gone in a number of different directions, but my gut leans slightly towards The Wolf of Wall Street. Aside from 2010's Shutter Island, every movie of Martin Scorsese's in the new millennium has received a best picture nomination; add in the fact that Wolf's popularity was at it's peek, and Scorsese himself scored a Director nom, and I think it would've led to the film taking the fifth spot. If it hadn't it would've likely been Nebraska, or even Dallas Buyers Club.

Likelihood of Nomination
1. 12 Years a Slave
2. Gravity
3. American Hustle
4. Captain Phillips
5. The Wolf Of Wall Street

I feel pretty safe in saying that Birdman, Boyhood, The Grand Budapest Hotel and The Imitation Game were all heavy locks to make the cut. That leaves one last spot and I'm inclined to think, judging by the nominations this year, that American Sniper would've taken it. Sure, Selma, The Theory of Everything, and Whiplash had stuck through the season, but Sniper had the most crucial aspect of any awards season, momentum.

Likelihood of Nomination
1. Boyhood
2. Birdman
3. The Grand Budapest Hotel
4. The Imitation Game
5. American Sniper

The first four seem pretty obvious, with the fifth spot coming down to Room and The Martian. Taking the Best Actress win into account, and the suprise director nod, I think that the Academy would've gone smaller, and rallied behind Room.

Likelihood of Nomination
1. Spotlight
2. The Big Short
3. The Revenant
4. Mad Max: Fury Road
5. Room

The top three are pretty obvious and, considering it got a Director, Writer and Editor nod, I'd say Arrival would've been in too. That leaves five movies fighting it out for that last spot; Hidden Figures had some momentum, but I'm not really sure it had enough to beat the other four, which had been in the hunt all season. Fences, for as much as it was liked by most branches, isn't really big or small enough to make it in, and probably would've fallen to the wayside. Lion helped prove, once again, how much power Harvey Weinstein has. Making into a five-picture year though would've been a real feat, and not one that I could really see happening (the fact that it didn't get director or editor nominations is telling). That leaves Hacksaw Ridge and Hell or High Water; as much love as Ridge got, it managed a directing nod in a very crowded field, it missed out on a script nod, which Hell or High Water didn't. Water also cracked the editing field, and was able to overcome a late-Summer release, indicating the film's potency.

Likelihood of Nomination
1. La La Land
2. Moonlight
3. Manchester by the Sea
4. Arrival
5. Hell or High Water

Likelihood of Nomination
1. The Shape of Water
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Get Out
4. Dunkirk
5. Lady Bird