My Way Too Early 2017 Oscar Predictions

And the Nominees Could Possibly Be...



*Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
*The Birth of a Nation
*La La Land
*Lion
*Loving
*Passengers
*Silence
*Thank You for Your Service
*War Machine
*The Zookeeper's Wife

Silence and The Birth of a Nation seem, at this very early stage, to be the most likely here. Since 2002 five of his six movies have been nominated (Shutter Island is the only one not to make it; a case could be made that that was partially do to it's February release). It's essentially a legacy nod; if it's just good, it'll likely still make it in and if it's great then it'll really be in the running. Birth of a Nation is one of the few movies in this race that's already screened; it opened at Sundance to rapturous acclaim, with everyone who'd seen it beating the drum for an eventual oscar run. While only a few were outright taken with the film, the response was huge, and if it can continue this in October than it should have no trouble making the cut.

After that I'd put in Billy Lynn's Halftime Walk, Loving and The Zookeeper's Wife. Ang Lee has a strong history with the academy; four BP nominees in a seventeen year span and two best director wins. Like Scorsese, if Lee makes a good film, it'll likely have the support. Loving doesn't have a legend at the helm, but Jeff Nichols has had a great run over the past few years with indie darlings like Take Shelter, Mud and Midnight Special. With this one, he has a real life story with some social relevancy even today. Focus Features seems to be huge on it; they bought the rights for $9 mil. after seeing just minutes of a sizzle reel, and then gave it a prime November release slot (i.e. it's their big player, and they're always power players come awards season). The Zookeeper's Wife is one that I was on the fence about including, until I read it's synopsis that reads like an oscar checklist (think Schindler's List mixed with We Bought a Zoo). Niki Caro has a decent track record as a director, with two of her films scoring nods (Whale Rider & North Country), and I expect that to continue here.

Passengers was honestly one that I didn't think I'd end up adding on here, but after reading numerous bits of praise for the film's script, which has been circulating for almost a decade, and remember how well sci-fi movies have been doing lately, I was swayed. I had a similar feeling about Lion, though to a smaller degree. From the descriptions that I read, Lion seems like a cross between Philomena and Slumdog Millionaire. I show-reel was shown at Cannes last year to a largely positive response, and the film recently took The Founder's release date of November 25th; there seems to be a lot of confidence in this one, and I'm gonna go with it. Also backed by confidence is Damien Chazelle's followup to Whiplash, La La Land, which recently had it release date shifted from the Summer to December 2nd, in the thick of awards season posturing. Hollywood loves a good musical (how the hell else do we explain Chicago winning or Les Misérables even being nominated) and, just as importantly, love themselves (it's a musical about making it in Hollywood).

Left with two more spots (yeah, it's a cop out, but I'm still going with the full ten), I've taken one somewhat on the radar, and one not at all on it. Netflix handed over $60 mil. to get War Machine, and the material looks incredibly promising; a satire of the Afghanistan war. David Michôd is an inspired choice to tackle the material, after delving into some very dark vehicles with Animal Kingdom and The Rover, and star Brad Pitt has been on a roll as of late. If it's good, the only hurdle it'll have to clear will be the bias that some in the academy have for streaming services; members who likely kept Beasts of No Nation on the sidelines. Finally, I'm taking another film that deals with war, this time through the soldiers perspective. Thank You for Your Service is based on the acclaimed book of the same name that looks at several returning soldiers transition from war to home, and the PTSD they're inflicted with. It's weighty material, the type that'll surely get the attention of older members of the academy if handled well. Jason Hall directs it, after a screenplay nod last year for American Sniper, a film that dealt with similar material that got strong notices. I didn't see this film on any of the other lists that I looked at, so I'm going out on my own with this one, but I just have a feeling that this could be this category's surprise by the year's end.

The Next Six
*The Founder
*The Girl on the Train
*Manchester by the Sea
*The Promise
*20th Century Women
*Fences (if it make's it in time)

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
**Silence

Result: Poor, 2/9; La La Land and Lion. Three of my picks (Thank You for Your Service, War Machine and The Zookeeper's Wife) didn't even come out. Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk and Passengers were the only one's to receive mixed-to-poor reviews; Loving and Silence were kind-of in the hunt; The Birth of a Nation had an all-time collapse when Nate Parker's past indiscretions came to light.

Of the two nominated, La La Land was the historic favorite before collapsing at the finish line and Lion was, likely, a filler candidate.

And the Nominees Could Possibly Be...


*Niki Caro- The Zookeeper's Wife
*Ang Lee- Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
*Jeff Nichols- Loving
*Nate Parker- The Birth of a Nation
*Martin Scorsese- Silence

The Next Five
*Damien Chazelle- La La Land
*Garth Davis- Lion
*Jason Hall- Thank You For Your Service
*David Michôd - War Machine
*Morten Tyldum- Passengers

If it Comes Out in Time
*Denzel Washington- Fences

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
**Martin Scorsese- Silence

Result: Awful, 0/5. The only name up here to get a nod was Chazelle, who eventually won, but he's not in my official five.

And the Nominees Could Possibly Be...


*Casey Affleck - Manchester by the Sea
*Andrew Garfield- Silence
*Michael Keaton- The Founder
*Nate Parker- The Birth of a Nation
*Miles Teller- Thank You for Your Service

As usual, this appears to be a very strong category. The obvious one here was Keaton, who's already got a fair amount of hype for his performance here. He's been on a hell of a run the past couple of years, and looks to continue it in 2016. Next up would, for me, me Garfield. He's been in the running before (he was snubbed five years ago for The Social Network), and he'll have plenty of exposure here. Scorsese's movies have had a pretty solid track record here, with three of his five 2000s BP nods scoring them; Daniel Day-Lewis in 2002 for Gangs of New York, and Leonardo DiCaprio for both The Aviator in 2004 and The Wolf of Wall Street in 2013. Based on everything that I've read and seen, Garfield seems to be committed as hell, and that most certainly will help. We've already seen Park and Affleck's performances, and both were praised considerably. Parker will be aided by the fact that his movie already seems like a best picture contender, and the academy not wanting another whiteout. Most reviews I read called Affleck's performance arguably the best of the Sundance film festival this year, and the best of his career. His biggest difficulty will be overcoming academy streaming bias, and flashier performances that'll clash with his more subtle work here. My final spot came down to Miles Teller and Dev Patel, and while Patel could very well end up making it in (after all, I'm just guessing), I'm going with my gut and taking Teller. He's got an incredibly meaty role here, and the academy has always had a soft spot for actors playing returning soldiers from war.

The Next Five
*Joel Edgerton- Loving
*Tom Hanks- Sully
*Dev Patel- Lion
*Chris Pratt- Passengers
*Will Smith- Collateral Beauty

If it Comes Out in Time
*Denzel Washington- Fences

You'll see this a few more times, but I think this movie could be a real hitter in many categories (especially in best actress) if it comes out this year.

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
**Michael Keaton- The Founder

Result Really 1.5/5, but I'm going to take 2.5; Affleck was in, and won, and Garfield made it in, but for Hacksaw Ridge (hence the .5). The extra is for Denzel Washinton, who I knew would be nominated if the film was done in time.

And the Nominees Could Possibly Be...


*Amy Adams- Arrival
*Annette Bening- 20th Century Women
*Emily Blunt- The Girl on the Train
*Jessica Chastain- The Zookeeper's Wife
*Ruth Negga- Loving

This category is largely comprised of women who are due (or overdo) to win one. Amy Adams is essentially seen now as the female Leonardo DiCaprio; she's been nominated five previous times without any success. That could very well change this year with not one, but two high profile titles (the other is Nocturnal Animals from Tom Ford). Bening is in a similar boat; four previous nods without a win. 20th Century Women's director Mike Mills helped get one overdue performer their first Oscar a few years ago (Christopher Plummer with Beginners) and, based on the material, I think he can do it again (though she could end up going supporting, which may just make it any easier case). Chastain has two previous nods, with many believing that she should've won for Zero Dark Thirty in 2012; looking at The Zookeeper's Wife's log line, she may just get one. Blunt has been on the cusp for years without ever getting even a nomination. Taking into account the The Girl on the Train's director Tate Taylor has a strong record of getting female performer's their spotlight (three actresses were nominated from The Help), and the meatiness of the character that she's playing (an alcoholic divorcée who stumbles into a murder mystery); this appears to be her strongest shot yet. Negga's the least known of the group, but she's an up & comer, and 2016 looks to be a great year for her; between this and roles in Summer blockbuster Warcraft and the highly anticipated AMC serice Preacher. With some more attention, and a lead role in a potential awards player, I think she'll be in the conversation.

The Next Five
*Haley Bennett- Thank You for Your Service
*Marion Cotillard - Allied
*Taraji P. Henson- Hidden Figures
*Jennifer Lawrence- Passengers
*Alicia Vikander- The Light Between Oceans

If it Comes Out in Time
*Viola Davis- Fences

If this gets released this year, not only do I think she'll be nominated, but I think she'll win. Until then, however...

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
**Annette Bening- 20th Century Women

Result: 1/5, but my picks were closer here than most. Negga was the only one I got right, but Adams, Bening and Blunt were all in the hunt (Adams looked like a lock going into nomination morning).

And the Nominees Could Possibly Be...


*Rebecca Ferguson- The Girl on the Train
*Greta Gerwig- 20th Century Women
*Aja Naomi King- The Birth of a Nation
*Kristen Stewart- Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
*Rachel Weisz- The Light Between Oceans

This is always the most difficult category to predict, which is why I've gone 3/10 over the past two years. Stewart and Weisz were the ones I felt more confident with; we've already seen a bit of Weisz, and she looks to knock it out. Stewart's been shaking off her Twilight woes with smaller films that she's been doing quite well with. She's got the only female lead role in Billy Lynn, a film that looks, on paper at least, to be a solid bet, so it shouldn't be too difficult to stand out. The next three are essentially guesses. With so much potential here (and potential category fraud), it's just so damn difficult to gauge what supporting female will hit. My reasoning for Gerwig is that she's in a film about complex women, and she's been rising for quite a while now. With strong work here, she could finally pop. Pretty much the same for Ferguson, who broke out big with Mission: Impossible- Rogue Nation last year, and has a few shots in awards friendly movies this year. Of those, this seems to have the most potential (though, from what I've read, she could end up going lead here). And King has a pretty emotional role in Birth of a Nation; one that could give here a similar run to Lupita Nyong'o a few years ago for 12 Years a Slave.

The Next Five
*Haley Bennett- The Girl on the Train
*Laura Dern- The Founder
*Amy Schumer- Thank You for Your Service
*Rooney Mara- Lion
*Octavia Spencer- Hidden Figures

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
**Kristen Stewart- Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk

Result: 0/5, and only one of my other five, Octavia Spencer, was even in the running.

And the Nominees Could Possibly Be...


*Armie Hammer- The Birth of a Nation
*Oscar Isaac- The Promise
*Steve Martin- Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
*Liam Neeson- Silence
*Michael Shannon- Loving

I feel like I'm playing it relatively safe here. Neeson and Martin were in pretty much every list I read, with Shannon also getting several mentions. In all of their cases, it's easy to see why; Neeson's been around for a long time, yet has only received one total nomination (Schindler's List). While he's mainly stuck to action films for the past few years, before that he was something of a prestige player, working on several contenders. It's seems that he's venturing back there this time, and teaming with Scorsese seems like a hell of a proposition. Martin is one of the most beloved comedic actors out there, yet he's never received a nomination; it's the type of narrative that the voters love, and starring in a movie from a perennial oscar contender certainly helps. Shannon is one of the more respected actors out there; he scored his first (and only) nomination for Revolutionary Road while just being on screen for about fifteen minutes, and manage to score a Golden Globe, Critic's Choice, and SAG award nomination for a film as small as 99 Homes. With Loving, he has a potential awards contender, and he's reuniting with his longtime collaborator Jeff Nichols, who frequently gets the best work out of him. Hammer is already getting strong reviews for his work in The Birth of a Nation, with many comparing him to Michael Fassbender in 12 Years a Slave, which bodes relatively well for him considering he got a nod. Lastly, Isaac has been on the rise for years, and a role in a sweeping period romance could finally push him to an oscar nod.

The Next Five
*Joe Cole- Thank You for Your Service
*Adam Driver- Silence
*Patrick Stewart- Green Room
*J.K. Simmons- La La Land
*Jared Leto- Suicide Squad

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
**Liam Neeson- Silence

Result: .5/5; Shannon made it in, but it was for Nocturnal Animals. None of my other picks were even in the running.

And the Nominees Could Possibly Be...

*Damien Chazelle- La La Land
*Kenneth Lonergan- Manchester by the Sea
*Mike Mills- 20th Century Women
*Jeff Nichols- Loving
*Jon Spaihts- Passengers

Passengers seems like the strongest early bet; the script has been out and circulating for nearly a decade, and has been picking up excellent notices ever since. Manchester by the Sea is the only film here that's been seen, and it scored near unanimous praise. While I think it'll likely be too small to make much of an impact, I think it will duplicate the exact numbers of Lonergan's debut film You Can Count on Me (Lead Acting, Screenplay). If Chazelle brings even a portion of the writing ability he brought to Whiplash, then he should have a strong shot. If I'm predicting Loving in Picture and Director, then it would seem pretty pointless not to put it here (it also doesn't hurt that Nichols' scripts have always been strong). 20th Century Women is one that I see being more respected than outright loved, and respected original stories usually have a great chance here.

The Next Five
*Nate Parker and Jean McGianni Celestin- The Birth of a Nation
*Woody Allen- Café Society
*Richard Linklater- Everybody Wants Some!!
*Robert D. Siegel- The Founder
*Jared Bush, Phil Johnston, Byron Howard, Jennifer Lee, Rich Moore, Jim Reardon and Josie Trinidad- Zootopia

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
**Jon Spaihts- Passengers

Result: 3/5, one of my better categories. I still messed up the winner, Passengers was in no way a potential winner at any point, but Chazelle, Lonergan and Mills all made the cut.

And the Nominees Could Possibly Be...

*Simon Beaufoy and Jean-Christophe Castelli- Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
*Jay Cocks- Silence
*Luke Davies- Lion
*David Michôd- War Machine
*Angela Workman- The Zookeeper's Wife

Nominees in this category are predominantly also BP nominees, especially since that has expanded. The Zookeeper's Wife and Silence seemed like gimmes considering how big I'm going on both of them. I used Slumdog Millionaire and Philomena to describe Lion, and considering that both did pretty well here, as well as being critically adored, it seemed like an easy jump to take. Billy Lynn and War Machine are both modern war satires, and both would require a lot of witty screenwriting to do so well.

The Next Five
*Derek Cianfrance- The Light Between Oceans
*Tom Ford- Nocturnal Animals
*Jason Hall- Thank You for Your Service
*Eric Heisserer- Arrival
*Erin Cressida Wilson- The Girl on the Train

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
**David Michôd- War Machine

Result: 1/5 (Lion). 2 of my picks (War Machine and The Zookeeper's Wife) didn't even come out in 2016, and the other two never gained much momentum.

And the Nominees Could Possibly Be...

*John Williams- The BFG
*Thomas Newman- Finding Dory
*Alexandre Desplat- The Light Between Oceans
*Volker Bertelmann & Dustin O'Halloran- Lion
*Alan Silvestri- Allied

Williams will probably be nominated for every score he does for the rest of his life. Newman's been on a roll for the past few years, and has been nominated for his previous two Pixar contributions, including for this film's predecessor Finding Nemo. Considering he's been nominated thirteen previous times, he could be a strong bet to win. Desplat hasn't had more than a year between nominations since 2007, and appears a to have a solid vehicle here. While I'm not entirely sold on the movie's overall chances, I think it'll do well on the tech side (the academy loves period pieces). Lion's here mainly because I only had it in two categories, and I think it'll do better than that. It made it easier when I read O'Halloran's track record; he's been doing strong work on Transparent for the past few years, and I think it'll translate to the big screen. It surprised me when I was reading these composers awards records to find that Silvestri has only one nomination here (he has two overall; Best Song for The Polar Express) for Forrest Gump over twenty years ago. WWII movies have always done well here, and the weight of them is usually enough to bring in a glut of other nods here. I think that'll happen here, and propel Silvestri into the final five.

The Next Five
*Justin Hurwitz- La La Land
*Jóhann Jóhannsson- Arrival
*Abel Korzeniowski- Nocturnal Animals
*Harry Gregson-Williams- The Zookeeper's Wife
*Whoever Does It (Likely Howard Shore)- Silence

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
**Alan Silvestri- Allied

Result: 1.5/5; Lion made the cut, but it was the only movie I got right. Thomas Newman was nominated, but for Passengers. The category's winner, Justin Hurwitz for La La Land, was in my other five section, I was kicking myself all season for not seeing that one clearer.

And the Nominees Could Possibly Be...

*Finding Dory
*La La Land
*La La Land
*Moana
*Sing Street

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
**La La Land

Result: 3/5, and the winner (a general La La Land pick, but still). I'd argue Sing Street was pretty close too.

And the Nominees Could Possibly Be...

*Finding Dory
*Kubo and the Two Strings
*Moana
*Storks
*Zootopia

The Next Five
*The Angry Birds Movie
*Kung Fu Panda 3
*The Secret Life of Pets
*Sausage Party
*Sing

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
**Zootopia

Result: 3/5, including the correct winner.

And the Nominees Could Possibly Be...

*Javier Aguirresarobe- The Promise
*Adam Arkapaw- The Light Between Oceans
*Rodrigo Prieto- Silence
*Linus Sandgren- La La Land
*Bradford Young- Arrival

I surprised myself with this one, in that I opted for mostly potential first-timers. Prieto is the only one who's been nominated before, but just once over a decade ago for Brokeback Mountain. He's been doing strong work for a while without any accolades, and Scorsese's non-contemporary/non-gangster usually have a strong showing here (Hugo, The Aviator, Gangs of New York, etc.). We've only seen one still from La La Land, but if the film's visual palette is as warm and charming as the image is, then it should definitely be in the conversation. We've also seen the trailer for The Light Between Oceans, and it didn't disappoint on the visual front. Arkapaw looks to have shot a visually arresting period-drama. Young has been on the rise for several years (he should've been nominated in 2014 for Selma or A Most Violent Year, and Villeneuve's films have always had a strong visual sense. It was essentially a toss up between six guys for my final spot, but I picked Aguirresarobe largely he's doing a period drama/romance, which essentially have to look beautiful to stand out.

The Next Five
*Elliot Davis- The Birth of a Nation
*Roger Deakins- Hail, Caesar!
*Seamus McGarvey- Nocturnal Animals
*Rodrigo Prieto- Passengers
*John Toll- Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
**Rodrigo Prieto- Silence

Result: 3/5; Arrival, La La Land, and Silence.

And the Nominees Could Possibly Be...

*Alice Through the Looking Glass
*The Birth of a Nation
*Miss Peregrine's Home or Peculiar Children
*Silence
*The Zookeeper's Wife

The Next Five
*Allied
*Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
*Hail, Caesar!
*The Lost City of Z
*The Promise

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
**The Birth of a Nation

Result: 0/5. I did better in my "Next Five" list, with a nominee and the eventual winner, Allied and Fantastic Beasts respectively.

And the Nominees Could Possibly Be...

*Alice Through the Looking Glass
*The Lost City of Z
*Passengers
*The Promise
*Silence

The Next Five
*The Birth of a Nation
*Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
*Hail, Caesar!
*Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
*The Zookeeper's Wife

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
**Silence

Result: 1/5; Passengers. I did better in the next five, with nominees Fantastic Beasts and Hail, Caesar!.

And the Nominees Could Possibly Be...

*Tom Cross- La La Land
*Dino Jonsäter- Thank You for Your Service
*Thelma Schoonmaker- Silence
*Peter Sciberras- War Machine
*Tim Squyres- Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk

The Next Five
*Maryann Brandon- Passengers
*Jeremiah O'Driscoll- Allied
*Steven Rosenblum- The Birth of a Nation
*Christopher Rouse- Jason Bourne
*Joe Walker- Arrival

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
**Tim Squyres- Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk

Result: 1/5; La La Land. Again, two didn't even come out Thank You for Your Service and War Machine, and two weren't even in the conversation.

And the Nominees Could Possibly Be...

*Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
*Jason Bourne
*Passengers
*Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
*Thank You for Your Service

The Next Five
*The Lost City of Z
*Silence
*Suicide Squad
*Untitled WWII Romantic Thriller
*War Machine

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
**Thank You for Your Service

Result: 0/5 and my winner didn't even come out.

And the Nominees Could Possibly Be...

*Jason Bourne
*Passengers
*Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
*Silence
*La La Land

The Next Five
*Billy Lynn's Halftime Walk
*Suicide Squad
*Thank You for Your Service
*Untitled WWII Romantic Thriller
*War Machine

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
**La La Land

Result: 2/5, with La La Land having been the favorite (it did lose to Hacksaw Ridge though).

And the Nominees Could Possibly Be...

*Alice Through the Looking Glass
*Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children
*Suicide Squad

The Next Five
*The Lost City of Z
*The Promise
*Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
*Silence
*X-Men Apocalypse

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
**Suicide Squad

Result: 1/3 but, improbably (after it's toxic reception), Suicide Squad did win.

And the Nominees Could Possibly Be...

*The BFG
*The Jungle Book
*Passengers
*Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
*X-Men: Apocalypse

The Next Five
*Arrival
*Captain America: Civil War
*Doctor Strange
*Star Trek Beyond
*Suicide Squad

My Bold, Way Too Early, Out on a Limb Predicted Winner
**Passengers

Result: 1/5; The Jungle Book (which won).