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Best Picture
The Trial of the Chicago 7 (2020)
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Safest in this category. #1-#5 are locks, each scoring both DGA and PGA.2.
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After the top five, I'd say Ma Rainey is likely the safest bet. I wouldn't say it's got a lot of passion behind it, but it's shown up everywhere it needs to (PGA, SAG, WGA). Plus, having the likely Best Actor winner is always a positive (only five times in the past 30 years has the Best Actor winner not come from a BP nominee, and not since 2009). 7.
Another PGA/SAG/WGA combo (it made the firs-timer's DGA roster) that's likely in, though it would be a lie to say there's a lot of heat behind it. Still probably in, but it has cooled in the months since its release.8.
After being something of a wild card pick early on, Sound of Metal has been showing up everywhere it needs to (DGA, PGA, WGA). It would appear that the film has the momentum necessary to make the cut. No lock, but I think this one could do surprisingly well.9.
I think nine spots seems the safest bet here (I can't imagine any less than eight for the last year of this nonsense; next year goes back to a full 10), so that led me to The Father and Judas and the Black Messiah. I had the latter in here until I switched to the former last minute. While Judas has been on a roll lately, The Father's hung in all season, and I think the Brits will push this one over the top. I could see either though (Jesus, why couldn't they have made this the full 10 year?), or even a surprise player.Other Possibilities
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A craft player, for sure, and maybe a few others, but it hasn't scored a Picture nomination anywhere but from the Critics. 12.
It doesn't seem likely, but I wouldn't rule out a surprise. The SAG ensemble nomination has impact, but it's been slumping everywhere else. 13.
Scored a major PGA nom, but I can't imagine stuffier voters putting a Borat movie up for best film. 14.
Cleaned up at the BAFTAs, but I think that help it in a few individual categories more than this crowded picture race.15.
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Best Director
Nomadland (2020)
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Regina King scored a Globe nod, and has a likely BP contender, but One Night in Miami just hasn't had the strongest season, and her work, while strong, isn't as showy as a few a the other contenders. Da 5 Bloods just hasn't had a good season at all, and looks to miss most major categories. Is it possible that Lee could still pull out a nod, even without a BP player? Certainly, but there are just too many contenders with surging films. Greengrass is in a similar boat; News of the World has done okay, but it just doesn't seem to have much passion behind it, and he hasn't shown up anywhere. Zeller's got a showy piece with The Father, but I'm not sure it has enough juice to make into a crowded picture race, let alone director. That leaves me with two directors of surging films; Shaka King (Judas and the Black Messiah) and Darius Marder (Sound of Metal). Either could score here, but my gut says that Marder's got the bigger of the two; playing with audio like he did in the film shows the kind of vision that I think the directors branch will eat up.
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Best Actress
Promising Young Woman (2020)
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Best Actor
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Best Supporting Actor
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Then there's Raci, who's been hanging around all season, only scoring a Critics' Choice nomination (he did get in at BAFTA, but I just don't know what that new voting system means for overlap). He's been the sentimental pick here, and I think that in a category as varied as this one, that will win out. It also helps that Sound of Metal has caught momentum of late, scoring nominations at most major guilds (ACE, DGA, PGA, SAG, WGA).
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Best Supporting Actress
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Best Original Screenplay
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Best Adapted Screenplay
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Best Documentary Feature
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Best Animated Feature
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Best Foreign Language Film
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Best Original Score
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Probable winner.
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Best Original Song
One Night in Miami... (2020)
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A very strong contender that could finally net Diane Warren her first Oscar after 10 nominations.
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Best Cinematography
News of the World (2020)
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Best Costume Design
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Best Production Design
The Midnight Sky (2020)
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Parasite showed that the Academy is willing to go contemporary, but it had a big, showy location; The Father has a flat. A BAFTA nod is nothing to laugh off, but I just don't know what impact they're going to have this time. I could definitely see Trial of the Chicago 7 slide in thanks to broad support, but I think that's more likely to aid it in costumes. David Copperfield could make it, but, again, it's costumes are likely to overshadow it. There are, honestly, several others that I wouldn't rule out (The Dig and Rebecca got in a BAFTA, Promising Young Woman is beloved, even Birds of Prey or Jingle Jange have their admirers).
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Best Sound
1. Sound of Metal
2. Mank
3. News of the World
4. Tenet
5. Soul
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6. Greyhound
7. The Trial of the Chicago 7
8. Nomadland
9. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
10. The Midnight Sky
2. Mank
3. News of the World
4. Tenet
5. Soul
6. Greyhound
7. The Trial of the Chicago 7
8. Nomadland
9. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
10. The Midnight Sky
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Best Film Editing
1. Alan Baumgarten- The Trial of the Chicago 7
2. Chloé Zhao- Nomadland
3. Kirk Baxter- Mank
4. Mikkel E.G. Nielsen- Sound of Metal
5. Frédéric Thoraval- Promising Young Woman
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6. Yorgos Lamprinos- The Father
7. Harry Yoon- Minari
8. Jennifer Lame- Tenet
9. William Goldenberg- News of the World
10. Kristan Sprague- Judas and the Black Messiah
2. Chloé Zhao- Nomadland
3. Kirk Baxter- Mank
4. Mikkel E.G. Nielsen- Sound of Metal
5. Frédéric Thoraval- Promising Young Woman
6. Yorgos Lamprinos- The Father
7. Harry Yoon- Minari
8. Jennifer Lame- Tenet
9. William Goldenberg- News of the World
10. Kristan Sprague- Judas and the Black Messiah
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Best Makeup & Hairstyling
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Best Visual Effects
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BradWesley123's rating:
Sound of Metal: 7
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom: 6
Minari: 6
Nomadland: 6
The Trial of the Chicago 7: 6
Promising Young Woman: 5
The Father: 4
News of the World: 5
One Night in Miami: 4
Judas and the Black Messiah: 3
The Midnight Sky: 3
Soul: 3
Tenet: 3
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: 2
Collective: 2
The Mauritanian: 2
Welcome to Chechnya: 2