2021 Oscar Predictions

1.

Safest in this category. #1-#5 are locks, each scoring both DGA and PGA.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

After the top five, I'd say Ma Rainey is likely the safest bet. I wouldn't say it's got a lot of passion behind it, but it's shown up everywhere it needs to (PGA, SAG, WGA). Plus, having the likely Best Actor winner is always a positive (only five times in the past 30 years has the Best Actor winner not come from a BP nominee, and not since 2009).

7.

Another PGA/SAG/WGA combo (it made the firs-timer's DGA roster) that's likely in, though it would be a lie to say there's a lot of heat behind it. Still probably in, but it has cooled in the months since its release.

8.

After being something of a wild card pick early on, Sound of Metal has been showing up everywhere it needs to (DGA, PGA, WGA). It would appear that the film has the momentum necessary to make the cut. No lock, but I think this one could do surprisingly well.

9.

I think nine spots seems the safest bet here (I can't imagine any less than eight for the last year of this nonsense; next year goes back to a full 10), so that led me to The Father and Judas and the Black Messiah. I had the latter in here until I switched to the former last minute. While Judas has been on a roll lately, The Father's hung in all season, and I think the Brits will push this one over the top. I could see either though (Jesus, why couldn't they have made this the full 10 year?), or even a surprise player.

Other Possibilities

10.

11.

A craft player, for sure, and maybe a few others, but it hasn't scored a Picture nomination anywhere but from the Critics.

12.

It doesn't seem likely, but I wouldn't rule out a surprise. The SAG ensemble nomination has impact, but it's been slumping everywhere else.

13.

Scored a major PGA nom, but I can't imagine stuffier voters putting a Borat movie up for best film.

14.

Cleaned up at the BAFTAs, but I think that help it in a few individual categories more than this crowded picture race.

15.

16.

1.

Chloé Zhao- NomadlandThe frontrunner.

2.

David Fincher- MankLooks safe.

3.

Lee Isaac Chung- MinariDGA nominee with a surging film; very likely.

4.

Emerald Fennell- Promising Young WomanAfter the top three, I don't know how the last two spots will shake out. There are six or so legitimate contenders, all will decent shots. Of the group, I think Fennell has the best chance of making the cut. Young Woman has been steadily been gaining momentum in this expanded season, and she's showed up at all of the important precursors, including the all-important DGA tip. Probably in.

5.

Darius Marder- Sound of MetalSorkin was the fifth DGA nominee, has shown up at all of the major precursors, and has a film that could still contend for BP. Of the directors in this field, however, his work is the least "director-ly"; it's a sturdily constructed piece, but it's power lies more in Sorkin's screenplay than his direction, and I suspect many voters will see that. So, then, who takes the last spot?

Regina King scored a Globe nod, and has a likely BP contender, but One Night in Miami just hasn't had the strongest season, and her work, while strong, isn't as showy as a few a the other contenders. Da 5 Bloods just hasn't had a good season at all, and looks to miss most major categories. Is it possible that Lee could still pull out a nod, even without a BP player? Certainly, but there are just too many contenders with surging films. Greengrass is in a similar boat; News of the World has done okay, but it just doesn't seem to have much passion behind it, and he hasn't shown up anywhere. Zeller's got a showy piece with The Father, but I'm not sure it has enough juice to make into a crowded picture race, let alone director. That leaves me with two directors of surging films; Shaka King (Judas and the Black Messiah) and Darius Marder (Sound of Metal). Either could score here, but my gut says that Marder's got the bigger of the two; playing with audio like he did in the film shows the kind of vision that I think the directors branch will eat up.

Other Possibilities

6.

Shaka King- Judas and the Black Messiah

7.

Aaron Sorkin- The Trial of the Chicago 7

8.

Regina King- One Night in Miami

9.

Florian Zeller- The Father

10.

Spike Lee- Da 5 Bloods

1.

Carey Mulligan- Promising Young WomanShe's a lock for a nomination, and I'm starting to think that she's going to be one to break out here. The women below don't have movies that are going to make a broad impact. McDormand just won a few years ago, and I'm guessing that her work this year isn't "big" enough to sway voters. Davis has the "big" factor, but her film is, really, her late costar's, and, like McDormand, she also won recently. Day got a big bounce from her shocker Globe win, but she's out at SAG and didn't even get longlisted at BAFTA (Mulligan was snubbed there, but the new voting system through a lot out of whack there). It might be Mulligan's time.

2.

Frances McDormand- NomadlandA certainty.

3.

Viola Davis- Ma Rainey's Black BottomAnother lock.

4.

Andra Day- The United States vs. Billie HolidayThe Globe win certainly propels here into the final five, at least in my mind. That said, she's missing key precursors to take the win.

5.

Vanessa Kirby- Pieces of a WomanProbably safe, though Pieces doesn't seem to be that major of a player outside of this category, so I could see her slipping if someone else catches momentum. That said, it doesn't really look like anyone has; if it'd been a more competitive year, I'd likely have her out.

Other Possibilities

6.

Rosamund Pike- I Care a LotThat surprise Globe win gave her a lot of momentum, and the film is breaking at just the right time. It's a very divisive film, however, so I imagine a few voters not really bothering. Still a very strong threat.

7.

Yeri Han- MinariShe hasn't shown up anywhere, but Minari seems to be such a beloved film that I could see her sneaking in thanks to that love.

8.

Amy Adams- Hillbilly ElegyThe movie was reviled critically, but she still scored a SAG nomination, and she's a beloved figure with the Academy (six nominations), so I wouldn't rule a surprise nod out.

9.

Zendaya- Malcolm & MarieThe Critics' Choice nomination puts her in the conversation, but the film came and went and she hasn't shown up anywhere else. Likely not.

10.

Sophia Loren- The Life AheadThe European voting block could lift her in, but I doubt it.

1.

Chadwick Boseman- Ma Rainey's Black BottomGuaranteed. Probable winner.

2.

Anthony Hopkins- The FatherLock.

3.

Riz Ahmed- Sound of MetalHe's been nominated for all the precursors, but the I'm not sure of the film's chances. It'd be a surprise to see him snubbed, but not out of the realm of possibility, or even probability.

4.

Steven Yeun- MinariA SAG nominee from a surging film that; Yeun looks strong. He's not a lock, only the three above can claim that, but I think the film's hot enough right now that he'll couple that momentum with a strong performance to score his first.

5.

Tahar Rahim- The MauritanianMost have the last two spots down to Lindo, Oldman and Yeun, and the smart money's on them, but I think Rahim's going to pull off a surprise. While BAFTA acting nominations aren't the great barometer that they've been previous years, the fact that The Mauritanian was shortlisted 12 times and scored in key nominations in non-juried categories (including Best Film). That tells me that the film has wide support, enough to propel Rahim into the fray. Oldman is certainly a strong pick, scoring nominations everywhere he needs to, including SAG, along with my #1-#4 selections. SAG has only lined up 100% with the Oscars six out of 26 times, and I think the top four are safe, which leads me to leaving Oldman out. If he hadn't won three years, I think he'd have a stronger claim. Now that he's a winner, the desire for voters to keep throwing him nominations may be sated. Still a very viable contender.

Other Possibilities

6.

Gary Oldman- Mank

7.

Delroy Lindo- Da 5 BloodsMost people would love to see him make the cut here, but it's just been a rough season for the actor and his film. I could see him sneaking in though. He scored a Critics' Choice nod, the cast got a SAG nod, and there's been some hubbub about his snubs; i.e. it isn't totally unfathomable. Bloods just hasn't been enough of a consistent player this season, compared to the six men above.

8.

Mads Mikklesen- Another RoundScored at BAFTA, but I've noted my reservations about that. The film did well, overall, at BAFTA, too, which is a good sign. A possible spoiler.

9.

LaKeith Stanfield- Judas and the Black MessiahIf he'd picked up any precursor noms, I'd have been tempted. As is, I don't see him making it.

10.

Kingsley Ben-Adir- One Night in Miami

1.

Daniel Kaluuya- Judas and the Black MessiahThe Globe win was the confirmation that Kaluuya is the frontrunner here.

2.

Sacha Baron Cohen- The Trial of the Chicago 7Lock.

3.

Leslie Odom Jr.- One Night in MiamiLock.

4.

Chadwick Boseman- Da 5 BloodsAfter those top three, there doesn't seem to be any clear consensus as to what way voters will go. With that in mind, this seems to me the perfect place to give Boseman another shout out. He scored a SAG nod here, and his passing makes this potential nomination more urgent. I don't think he could make it in a tougher year, be this is likely the slimmest acting race of the night.

5.

Paul Raci- Sound of MetalThis last spot could go a number of different ways. Leto got the Globe and SAG nods, but it just doesn't seem like an Oscar role, and that film doesn't have much momentum. Murray got Globe and Critics' Choice nods, but that was earlier in the season, when the idea of Murray as a player here seemed more viable. In the weeks since, he's fallen off a bit. Alan Kim got in at BAFTA, is part of a surging film, and adorable. With that being said, I don't know how much stock we can take of BAFTA acting accolades, and his youth will likely work against him compared to older, more established presences. Strathairn is a sleeper contender who could benefit from Nomadland's love. I don't think it'll happen, but it's certainly possible. Literally any Baron Cohen's costars could join him here (most likely Mark Rylance), but this is likely to be a Spotlight situation (one star represents the group).

Then there's Raci, who's been hanging around all season, only scoring a Critics' Choice nomination (he did get in at BAFTA, but I just don't know what that new voting system means for overlap). He's been the sentimental pick here, and I think that in a category as varied as this one, that will win out. It also helps that Sound of Metal has caught momentum of late, scoring nominations at most major guilds (ACE, DGA, PGA, SAG, WGA).

Other Possibilities

6.

Jared Leto- The Little Things

7.

David Strathairn- Nomadland

8.

Alan S. Kim- MinariSAG and Globe nominations are nothing to sleep on, but News has been losing momentum for a bit and doesn't look like a major player outside of crafts. Could surprise, but I don't really see it.

9.

Mark Rylance- The Trial of the Chicago 7

10.

Bill Murray- On the Rocks

1.

Yeo-jeong Yoon- MinariMinari's got a lot of love. If she wins SAG, I think she'll run the table and win.

2.

Olivia Colman- The FatherI don't know if she's got what it takes to win so soon after her last one for The Favourite, but she seems the safest bet for a nomination (I have her second, but that's only because see #1 as more of a contending winner; Colman's probably the safer nominee).

3.

Maria Bakalova- Borat Subsequent MoviefilmThere are breakout performances, and then there's what Bakalova gives in the new Borat movie. It's easy to see her missing, but she's been nominated by all the necessary precursors, and the movie seems to have legs. Also, she was touched by Rudy Guiliani; who gave more for their craft this year? She won the Critics' Choice Award, which has only missed an eventual Oscar nominee once (Joan Allen for Pleasantville in 1998, but she tied with Kathy Bates, who was nominated). That said, the Globe loss might portend to a snub, so don't be surprised.

4.

Jodie Foster- The MauritanianI'd had her out for a bit, even after the shocker of a Globe win. Then I looked at the Globe/Oscar correlation for supporting actress, and I couldn't leave her out. Only three times in 77 years has the winner of the Globe not been nominated for the Oscar (for if you count Kate Winslet in 2008 for The Reader, but she wound up winning for Best Actress that year for the role) and that hasn't happened in nearly 50 years. Add to that that the film clearly has love across the pond (she didn't get nominated, but it was shortlisted a bunch, and ended up scoring four non-juried nominations including Best Film), and it looks like she might be a real threat here.

5.

Amanda Seyfried- MankShe went from being the favorite here preseason to an on the edge candidate, and Mank doesn't seem to have a lot of passion behind it (it's showing up everywhere it needs to, but it's not winning). I still think she'll make the cut though. This last one, likely, comes down to her, Close and Fishback (possibly Zengel, too). Close has scored all the nominations she needs, but I think that the fact that she doesn't look like a viable contender for the win hurts the "due" narrative (i.e. it's finally her time, so get in line voters), and the fact that the film itself seems to be so loathed hurts her, too. Fishback is a very strong spoiler, with a booming film and a powerful performance. I just don't know if she's too new for some voters; i.e. Seyfried's been around longer, and is more due for recognition, where as Fishback will have plenty of opportunities. Seyfried, too, has been in the conversation for quite awhile, and I suspect that many voters will stick with the trend (voter apathy could help several lagging candidates). This is a very close one though, with only the top two seemingly locked in.

Other Possibilities

6.

Glenn Close- Hillbilly Elegy

7.

Dominique Fishback- Judas and the Black Messiah

8.

Helena Zengel- News of the WorldSAG and Globe nominations are nothing to sleep on, but News has been losing momentum for a bit and doesn't look like a major player outside of crafts. Could surprise, but I don't really see it.

9.

Ellen Burstyn- Pieces of a Woman

1.

Emerald Fennell- Promising Young WomanLocked for a nomination. It'll be a real battle between Fennell and Sorkin for the win.

2.

Aaron Sorkin- The Trial of the Chicago 7Lock.

3.

Lee Isaac Chung- MinariAnother lock.

4.

Jack Fincher- MankThe late Fincher could be left out here, but, despite a seeming lack of passion for the film, he's been nominated everywhere he needs to be (outside of WGA, where he was listed ineligible). Not the safest, but the film does have the kind of crackling, classic-Hollywood dialogue that, I think, will keep it in.

5.

Darius Marder & Abraham Marder and Derek Cianfrance- Sound of MetalThere are about four films that have a legitimate claim for the fifth spot. Judas and the Black Messiah is booming, and has a WGA nod to boot; Soul is another emotionally resonant Pixar film; Another Round is the International Film favorite and a BAFTA nominee, two precursors that could make it a surprise contender. Any of those three could make the cut, but I'm leaning towards Sound of Metal here. It's scored surprising nominations at the Critics' Choice and, more crucially, WGA awards, and I think more voters will take to the degree-of-difficulty argument for the film; blending progressive hearing loss and ASL-heavy dialogue is a feat that the film accomplishes in spades. I could see any of the above contenders making it in (or even knocking Mank out), but Metal has the stronger case on paper.

Other Possibilities

6.

Will Berson & Shaka King and Kenny Lucas & Keith Lucas- Judas and the Black Messiah

7.

Thomas Vinterberg & Tobias Lindholm- Another Round

8.

Pete Docter, Mike Jones and Kemp Powers- Soul

9.

Andy Siara & Max Barbakow- Palm Springs

10.

Eliza Hittman- Never Rarely Sometimes Always

1.

Chloé Zhao- NomadlandThe only true lock that this category has.

2.

Kemp Powers- One Night in MiamiProbably the safest bet after Zhao. I could see the film underperforming overall, but the category's so weird that I can't see this one missing.

3.

Florian Zeller and Christopher Hampton- The FatherAnother that I'd be surprised to see miss. The degree of difficulty, showing a man's deteriorating mind, should get it in.

4.

Sacha Baron Cohen, Anthony Hines, Dan Swimer, Peter Baynham, Erica Rivinoja, Dan Mazer, Jena Friedman, Lee Kern & Nina Pedrad- Borat Subsequent MoviefilmAfter those first three, I just don't know. Conventional wisdom says that it's probably Ma Rainey's Black Bottom and News of the World (I'll talk about it below), and I can see that, but I've not really seen the power of the former. Ma's certainly gotten in everywhere it's needed to (Critics' Choice, WGA, even USC Scripters), but I have a feeling that many voters are just going to see it as August Wilson's play, not Ruben Santiago-Hudson's screenplay. Sequels have rough track record here (The Godfather Part II is the only one to win; only five nominees in the past 30 years), but Borat has stuck around all season, scoring major nominations from the WGA, and even PGA and SAG; this film is resonating, and I think a surprise screenplay nomination is a very strong possibility.

5.

Paul Greengrass and Luke Davies- News of the WorldThis last one came down to News and The White Tiger, with former coming out ahead. News scored WGA and Critics' Choice award nominations, and has been in the conversation all season. Tiger scored WGA and BAFTA noms; seemingly the stronger pairing. I suspect, though, that the WGA nod was because Nomadland was ineligible there, and BAFTA was never really going to take to scripts like Ma Rainey or One Night in Miami (whether that's because their very American and/or predominantly Black, I can't say to a certainty). It could definitely prove to be a spoiler here, but News seems the easier pick (plus, I think Borat is as wild as this category is willing to get).

Other Possibilities

6.

Ramin Bahrani- The White Tiger

7.

Ruben Santiago-Hudson- Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

8.

M.B. Traven, Rory Haines and Sohrab Noshirvani- The MauritanianBAFTA went hard for it; could be an interesting spoiler.

9.

Jonathan Raymond and Kelly Reichardt- First Cow

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

Other Possibilities

6.

7.

8.

9.

10.

1.

Winner.

2.

Lock.

3.

4.

5.

Other Possibilities

6.

7.

1.

It's the only contender here with appeal in other categories; probable winner.

2.

3.

4.

5.

Other Possibilities

6.

7.

8.

9.

10.

1.

Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, Jon Batiste- Soul
Probable winner.

2.

Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross- Mank
Seems fairly locked in.

3.

James Newton Howard- News of the WorldHoward's an eight-time nominee, and he's been nominated everywhere that he needs to be. Likely in.

4.

Emile Mosseri- MinariAnother contender than looks like a solid bet. Mosseri's ethereal work for the BP player has been consistently nominated elsewhere. Not quite a lock, but I'd be surprised to see it miss.

5.

Alexandre Desplat- The Midnight SkyThis last spot is likely to come down to recent winners Desplat and Göransson. I had Göransson in for the longest time, but Desplat's just so dug into this category (he's won twice off of 11 nominations), and The Midnight Sky has a more classical orchestra pallet (i.e. the thing that usually wins out here). Göransson's riding off of his success with The Mandalorian though, and three of Nolan's last four films have been nominated here, so he's no slouch. After that, there are a few wild cards that could sneak in, but none that seem to have too much momentum.

Other Possibilities

6.

Ludwig Göransson- Tenet

7.

Thomas Newman- The Little ThingsNever rule Newman out. Never. He's been nominated 14 times and frequently finds himself in here, even for curious picks like Passengers. While I don't see it happening, it does help that the film came out more recently than a few of the contenders above, and it's one of his finest scores in awhile.

8.

Daniel Pemberton- The Trial of the Chicago 7Pemberton's '60s-infused work could ride a Chicago lovefest into the final five. I don't see it happening, but wouldn't be surprised to see him in.

9.

Terrence Blanchard- Da 5 Bloods

10.

Dustin O’Halloran & Volker Bertelmann- Ammonite

1.

"Speak Now"- One Night in MiamiLock. Looking like a very strong contender for the win.

2.

"Io sì (Seen)"- The Life Ahead
A very strong contender that could finally net Diane Warren her first Oscar after 10 nominations.

3.

"Fight for You"- Judas and the Black MessiahAfter the top two, there are a number of contenders that could take the last three spots. "Fight for You" seems to have the strongest case; it's an r&b-infused ballad, with civil rights themes, from a BP player.

4.

"Turntables"- All In: The Fight for Democracy#1 and #2 are locks, and #3 looks solid-ish. The last two spots look like a crapshoot. Do they rubber stamp songs from BP contenders? Are they looking at songs that look "important"? Probably a mix of both, though this branch typically looks at the songwriters, too, throwing nominations to their favorites (look at Diane Warren). I'm not quite sure who that helps this time around (maybe John Legend, but I think this category is fairly flush with inspirational ballads). With that said, I think Janelle Monáe is a solid contender. She's a well-respected figure (she's performed at the Oscars, which helps for visibility), and here empowerment ballad for the potential Best Documentary contender All In is, surprisingly, catchy for this category. Not sure about it, but I'll take it.

5.

"Husavik (My Hometown)"- Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga"Hear My Voice" seems to be the consensus pick; it's a big civil rights ballad from a BP frontrunner, and it already scored a Globe nod. It's just not very good, though, and to include it in here (along with my top three) would mean that the Globes went 4/5 in Oscar overlap, which hasn't happened in nearly 20 years. It also doesn't have much passion behind, and I think Husavik actually does. I think it'll also help that the title Swedish town, Húsavík, is charmingly campaigning for the Oscar. In other years that might just be noise, but I think it'll woo some apathetic voters here.

Other Possibilities

6.

"Hear My Voice"- The Trial of the Chicago 7

7.

"Rain Song"- MinariMinari's got a lot of love, and I could definitely see voters going for this soothing lullaby. It just isn't something that seems in line with voter thinking here. They typically shunt smaller stuff for the bigger, more professionally made songs. Strong contender though.

8.

"Wuhan Flu Song"- Borat Subsequent MoviefilmI wouldn't be surprised if it made the cut, Borat could do very well, but I just don't see it happening. I could see a lot of voters thinking about, before doing what they always do, going for the big emotional songs instead.

9.

"Never Break"- Giving Voice

10.

"Loyal Brave True"- Mulan

1.

Erik Messerschmidt- MankLock. Will compete with #2 for the win.

2.

Joshua James Richards- Nomadland

3.

Dariusz Wolski- News of the WorldAfter the first two, there are a number of ways that this category could go. Of them, Wolski seems the safest. News is a sparse, sun-drenched western that checks most boxes for this category. Only ASC nominee, outside of the ones above, that seem safe.

4.

Phedon Papamichael- The Trial of the Chicago 7A fairly surprising contender here that, nevertheless, scored a very important ASC nod. ASC hasn't predicting less than four of the eventual five Oscar nominees in 15 years and, while I could see this being the year to that trend, I honestly can't see Cherry being an Oscar nominee (assuming the three above are fairly safe), especially since Newton Thomas Sigel (that film's DP) has another contender that could pull votes (Da 5 Bloods) and Trial has been cruising all season. Not a lock, but it feels solid.

5.

Sean Bobbitt- Judas and the Black MessiahThe last spot could go a number of different ways, but I've (uneasily) gone with Bobbitt's darkly hued effort. It's strong work, but not the kind that's usually recognized. In a typical year, I don't think it could make it, but this is a thin field. It scored a BAFTA nod, which is both fairly strong with aligning with Oscar nominees (usually around three or four, with #1-3 all making the cut) and, also, not juried, so seemingly indicative of potential broad support. Again, I have the barest of confidence in this pick.

Other Possibilities

6.

Newton Thomas Sigel- CherryAlso in contention are two Newton Thomas Sigel efforts, Cherry and Da 5 Bloods. The former scored a coveted ASC nod, while the latter seemed like a firm bet for most of the season, thanks to shifting filming techniques and aspect ratios. As I mentioned above, it would surprise me to see Cherry in, but it did score that big ASC nod, so it may have more play than I'm suspecting. He could score for Bloods, but that one has had a disappointing run and I don't expect that to change here.

7.

Hoyte van Hoytema- TenetShould be in contention, but has missed everywhere outside of a Critics' Choice nod. Could still make it in, but Tenet's been fading for awhile now.

8.

Newton Thomas Sigel- Da 5 Bloods

9.

Lachlan Milne- Minari

10.

Alwin H. Küchler- The Mauritanian

1.

Ann Roth- Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

2.

Trish Summerville- Mank

3.

Bina Daigeler- MulanI'm not entirely sold on Mulan for several upcoming categories, but costumes should be fairly easy.

4.

Alexandra Byrne- Emma.Should be safe. It's a Jane Austen adaptation, and Byrne is a previous winner/perennial player here. Also, it's a slight year here, and I expect voters not to stretch with these.

5.

Susan Lyall- The Trial of the Chicago 7News of the World or David Copperfield are the safe bets here, but my gut is saying that the love for Chicago 7 will be enough to surprise (think Joker here, last year). Bridges is a major force here, though, so he's a strong player. Copperfield and Billie Holiday could be players here, too. Really, this category is always ripe for a surprise contender.

Other Possibilities

6.

Mark Bridges- News of the WorldNever count Bridges out.

7.

Suzie Harman and Robert Worley- The Personal History of David Copperfield

8.

Paolo Nieddu- The United States vs. Billie Holiday

9.

Erin Benach- Birds of Prey

10.

Michael Wilkinson- Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey

1.

Donald Graham Burt and Jan Pascale- MankLikely winner.

2.

David Crank and Elizabeth Keenan- News of the WorldAfter Mank, there a few that look fairly solid, and whole bunch that could surprise. News looks like one of the safe ones, with Crank's and Keenan's dusty, worn-in western work scoring noms at all of the major precursors.

3.

Mark Ricker and Karen O'Hara, Diana Stoughton- Ma Rainey's Black BottomAppears to be locked in, though I'm not sure there's enough locations to really compete for the win, like many believe that it will.

4.

Nathan Crowley and Kathy Lucas- TenetAfter those top three, there are about a dozen films that have legitimate shots at these last two spots. Tenet seems like the safest option, if I could call it that. Crowley is a five-time nominee here, four of which were for Christopher Nolan films. Five of Nolan's last six films (Dark Knight Rises missed, but 2012 was a historically stacked year) were nominated. While Tenet was met with a chillier response that most of his films, the technical crafts were routinely praised, and I think Crowley's robust, practical work will be recognized again.

5.

Jim Bissell and Maudie Andrews, John Bush- The Midnight SkyI'm going for a wild card here, and taking The Midnight Sky for the last spot. My thinking here is that the Academy, typically, has one true space (or spaceship containing) odyssey here. A weird thought, sure, but there's a long list in the past decade of films that fit (Gravity, Interstellar, The Martian, Arrival, Passengers, First Man). That's, admittedly, flimsy logic, but I really don't know with this category. Typically, the craft categories go for showy, practical, large-scale stuff. I could see Mulan fitting that bill, but I just don't see much passion for the film beyond it's costumes, and maybe VFX (though I'll have thoughts on that down the line). Emma.'s a period-appropriate Jane Austen adaptation, but it hasn't shown up at any precursors, and is likely to be overshadowed by it's costumes.

Parasite showed that the Academy is willing to go contemporary, but it had a big, showy location; The Father has a flat. A BAFTA nod is nothing to laugh off, but I just don't know what impact they're going to have this time. I could definitely see Trial of the Chicago 7 slide in thanks to broad support, but I think that's more likely to aid it in costumes. David Copperfield could make it, but, again, it's costumes are likely to overshadow it. There are, honestly, several others that I wouldn't rule out (The Dig and Rebecca got in a BAFTA, Promising Young Woman is beloved, even Birds of Prey or Jingle Jange have their admirers).

Other Possibilities

6.

Shane Valentino and Andrew Baseman- The Trial of the Chicago 7

7.

Grant Major and Anne Kuljian, Amber Richards- Mulan

8.

Peter Francis and Cathy Featherstone- The Father

9.

Kave Quinn and Stella Fox- Emma.

10.

Cristina Casali and Charlotte Dirickx- The Personal History of David Copperfield

1. Sound of Metal
2. Mank
3. News of the World
4. Tenet
5. Soul

Other Possibilities
6. Greyhound
7. The Trial of the Chicago 7
8. Nomadland
9. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
10. The Midnight Sky

1. Alan Baumgarten- The Trial of the Chicago 7
2. Chloé Zhao- Nomadland
3. Kirk Baxter- Mank
4. Mikkel E.G. Nielsen- Sound of Metal
5. Frédéric Thoraval- Promising Young Woman

Other Possibilities
6. Yorgos Lamprinos- The Father
7. Harry Yoon- Minari
8. Jennifer Lame- Tenet
9. William Goldenberg- News of the World
10. Kristan Sprague- Judas and the Black Messiah

1.

Ma Rainey's Black BottomThe safest bet of a weird category.

2.

Hillbilly ElegyThere were a lot of problems with this movie, but I'll give them this; Glenn Close looks a bit like my grandmother in this. Probably in.

3.

MankProbably in, aided by the fact that it's one of the few BP contenders shortlisted here. Wouldn't necessarily be surprised to see it miss, though (think Once Upon a Time in Hollywood last year. Outside of the top two, I'm not very confident in this lineup.

4.

Birds of PreyIt's the spashiest of the remaining shortlist, and the last time Harley Quinn was featured in a live-action film, it won the category.

5.

PinocchioThis is a last-minute inclusion. Originally I had Jingle Jangle here but, while I could certainly see it in here, I finally looked at some of Pinocchio's work, and it became clear that I was sleeping on it. It's a bit garrish, but this is a slim category for big prosthetic work this year, and artist Mark Coulier is a two-time winner. Plus, it scored a BAFTA nomination (which is still important, outside of acting and directing); enough for me in a scattered year.

Other Possibilities

6.

Jingle Jangle: A Christmas JourneyI think it's in a better position than most. Could go either way.

7.

Emma.Possible. Hell, in this category, any of them are possible.

8.

The Little Things

9.

One Night in Miami

10.

The Glorias

1.

TenetLikely safe.

2.

The Midnight SkyIt, too, seems like a safe bet.

3.

MankAfter the top two, any of the eight remaining shortlisted could fill the last three spots. Mank seems the most likely. This category has been leaning towards smaller, more supporting effects than big budget one over the past few years, and it's the only BP contender that got shortlisted. Likely in.

4.

Welcome to ChechnyaChechnya's vfx aren't just subtle, they're revolutionary and life-saving (vfx faces were added to real subjects to hide their identities. I think that well help it rise above a rather odd field of films (it did score with the VES, too).

5.

The One and Only IvanMulan seems to be the consensus pick for most, and it could very well make the cut, but it missed in the main category at VES (it scored three nominations), which was a warning sign that another big Disney film from a few years ago, Black Panther, was going to miss. It be seem like reaching to include that film, but watching the films make the comparisons clear; they've got some big effects, but some glaringly bad ones too. The rest of the shortlist is an odd mix. I think Soul could, finally, break the Pixar curse here (they've never scored a nomination, but I also see that there's only been two animated nominees here, and both were stop-motion (Kubo and the Two Strings and The Nightmare Before Christmas). Ivan, then, feels like the safest choice. I could easily see Bloodshot swooping in here, as it did score a couple of nods from VES and, admittedly, has a few standout moments, but Ivan scored at BAFTA, got a VES nod, and movies with apes (Planet of the Apes, King Kong, Jungle Book, Mighty Joe Young) have a decent history here.

Other Possibilities

6.

Soul

7.

Mulan

8.

Bloodshot

9.

Bird of Prey

10.

Love and Monsters