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639 Views Share:Preliminary 2017 Academy Awards Predictions
Movie list created by BradWesley123 
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Best Picture
889
7.3
7.8
Dunkirk (2017)
1.
It did very well with the L.A. Critics, and eventually scored a whopping 14 Critic' Choice nominations, and 7 Golden Globe nods. I think we can start calling this the frontrunner.2.
Christopher Nolan's epic would be the favorite, but does have a few issues with historically needed categories down the line. Also, the critics' groups haven't been too kind to it; however, smaller movies are always going to do better with critics groups than guilds. Most likely in and, if the Brits champion it hardcore (which they will), it could go all the way.3.
NBR winner, with early screening garnering a lot of praise; The Post is starting to look like a it could become the favorite. Spielberg has a strong track record with the Academy as of late, and the film is timely as hell.4.
A critical smash; Three Billboards has a strong backing (Fox Searchlight), and precursor love. It won the People's Choice Award at the Toronto Film Festival, which has picked a BP nod eight out of the past ten years.5.
While it could end up experiencing some unintended backlash related to the sexual misconduct scandals plaguing Hollywood lately (it features a relationship between a 17-year-old and a twenty-something), it'll likely be able to get away from them, a become this year's major LGBT-themed Oscar-player. 6.
While coming-of-age stories are a bit hit-or-miss with the Academy, Lady Bird is getting superb reviews, and is lighting up the specialty box office. Plus, while the film will be absolutely acclaimed for its merits, stories by/about women are going to be held up this year more than previous ones, and this is the most likely female-directed picture to make it in this year. A solid contender. 7.
A critical and commercial smash that's had surprising staying-power. While no lock, the fact that it's one of the few legitimate minority made/led films that could actually make the cut. Probably in, though it could fall of it #10 has more power than expected. 8.
There's always a major Brit-pic in the pack, and Darkest Hour is really the only possible candidate. It's gotten solid reviews, though not earth-shattering, but British-biopics are like cat-nip to Academy voters, and movies that win Best Actor have almost-always get into BP (spoilers for Best Actor). 9.
Though The Florida Project is the smallest of the bunch, it does appear to have a loyal fanbase. The reviews have been excellent, and A24 has been on fire the last few years. This one is small enough that it could be seen as this year's Moonlight. It is however, small and there are a few other contenders that could take the last spot... Other Possibilities
10.
After surprise nods at the Critics' Choice Awards and a spot on AFI's Top Ten list, The Big Sick has a decent amount of momentum. If it can follow that up with bids at the PGAs, then this could be surprise player. It would also help if #8 continues to lose momentum. 11.
It's got great reviews and the diverse cast/crew that the Academy sorely need to highlight, but can it overcome the Netflix hurdle? That's the biggest question on the table for Mudbound. If it starts to gain traction with the guilds, beyond the SAGs (which Beasts of No Nation somehow managed to sneak into; i.e. the actors are done for some Netflix), then it could be a real player. If not, it'll just be another talking point for the cinephile community. 12.
The last time that PT Anderson and Daniel Day-Lewis made a movie together, it was the biggest BP threat to No Country for Old Men in 2007. If it's great, it could make it in, but the buzz is just now startin for it beyond Best Actor (and maybe costumes), and nobody has even seen it. It would need a groundswell of support, and it would definitely need to be less divisive than his last two (Inherent Vice and The Master). 13.
It's a movie about movies, and it's a crowdpleaser; if it gets momentum, it could be the surprise player we've been looking. The hurdle; are voters willing to get behind such a goofy movie? Are they willing to let a James Franco movie be a BP contender. My gut says no for now, but it would be a fun surprise. 14.
As I mentioned above, women's stories are going to be considered more highly than ever before. Wonder Woman making the cut would be a huge statement; powerful women can compete with the "boy's club". That said, no comic book movie has ever made the cut here, and there's not many chances for nominations down the line; you're not getting a BP nod if it's going to be your only one. Plus, I can't help but feel that Justice League's shellacking could prove a difficult hurdle to overcome. A precursor that could bode well for it's chances; Patty Jenkins getting a DGA nod. Comic book movies don't usually get both PGA and DGA (outside of The Dark Knight, which competed in a five-picture field), and if it can, that means there's broad support for the film. Otherwise, it'll likely come down to the wire. 15.
The Greatest Showman is the last unknown player of the season. No reviews, screenings; no buzz at all. If it's good, then it has a possible shot (it is a musical, after all), but the fact that Fox isn't touting this is a bad sign.
BradWesley123's rating:
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Best Director
581
7.1
7.4
1.
Even if Dunkirk doesn't win Best Picture, Nolan looks like he'll be winning his first Oscar in directing. The film is such a singular directorial achievement, in both storytelling a scope, that it's hard to see him missing for his all-out assault of a film. 2.
Another singular vision; The Shape of Water is a critical smash that's likely to do well across the board. It would be surprise if del Toro didn't score his first Best Director nomination here.3.
If The Post is going to be a major player, and it appears that it will be, then Spielberg will certainly be in the conversation for Best Director. Trademark directorial touches go a long way in this category; the directors' branch goes for the "respectable" choices, and Spielberg is one the best around. If it's good, he'll probably be in. 4.
This will be mentioned in several justifications for this list; this will be an awards season where awards-bodies will try to recognize female-oriented stories. Of the female directors, Gerwig seems to have the strongest chance; the film is getting excellent buzz, and it's an indie film from a distinct voice. While she's certainly no lock (no one outside of del Toro and Nolan are), her chances look pretty good this early in the game. 5.
Call Me by Your Name looks like a solid bet for several categories, and director is no exception. Distinct films for "artistic" directors often do well here, and I expect that to be the case again here. Other Possibilities
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
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Best Actress
231
7
7.4
1.
Guaranteed a nomination, and will likely go neck and neck with #2 for the win. It'll just depend which movie has more heat.2.
Lock.3.
Meryl Streep in a Spielberg movie = yet another Oscar nomination.4.
Ronan is yet again getting superb reviews for her work in Lady Bird. I wouldn't call her a lock yet, the film's stock could plummet over the course of the season, but she looks like a strong player this year. 5.
There are several contenders for the final spot, but I see Chastain being able to break through. Firstly, she's in an Aaron Sorkin-penned film, and six out of the seven film's that he's written have gotten a performer a nomination. Second, she's exceptionally respected, and has been a prominent voice in the Hollywood #metoo movement (everything affects these things). It's tough, but I'm leaning with her, but... Other Possibilities
6.
Robbie is getting the best notices of her career for the film, and she's gaining momentum, with this potentially being her awards-breakout. I suppose it just depends on how much momentum the film is able to grab; if it doesn't perform up to expectations and she misses a couple of key precursors (SAG, BAFTA, Critics' Choice), then it's unlikely. In essence, this one is coming down to Chastain and Robbie.7.
Last year's winner give another acclaimed performance here, but the film didn't sustain a lot of momentum and didn't get the best of reviews. Plus, her win last year doesn't give her nomination much urgency (i.e. she already has one). It's possible, but it looks to crowded above for her to move up. 8.
Dench is a legend, and this is the type of mild prestige picture that could surprise when no one is looking. It's unlikely, but if she picks up a SAG nod (go ahead and presume that she gets a BAFTA nomination) then she may have an outside shot. 9.
Once again, Winslet is getting superb reviews, but Woody Allen films are going to be skating in here again anytime soon. This being his film, I think his presence will taint her chances. 10.
Wonder Woman could be a surprise player this year, and it's chances will raise Gadot's. While a strong performance though, it's not one that screams OSCAR! My thinking is that the Academy goes for the more bait-y performances, though if the film gets momentum anything is possible.
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Best Actor
309
6.8
7.4
Darkest Hour (2017)
1.
This is a weak year for Best Actor, and Oldman is due. While he's been left out in the cold when it comes to early Critics' group awards, I think he'll turn it around (though his status as foregone winner has been smashed). 2.
A breakout performance in an Oscar frontrunner gives Chalamet a leg up in a rather depleted field. While I wouldn't say he's a lock, young actors are often passed over in favor of established names, he looks like a strong contender. It certainly helps that he's been cleaning up this category early (wins at NYFCC and the LAFCA means he's got a lot of support from coast to coast).3.
This is likely to be his final film performance, and he's won more of these than any other man. If it's even slightly good, he's a lock. If it's great, then we may have the makings of a spoiler on our hands. 4.
Can Hanks finally get another Best Actor nomination after a seventeen year drought? Early word is strong, with buzz that the role is somewhat a departure from his usual good guy routine (one early notice said that he was something of a bastard). While it is entirely plausible that he'll get passed over again, this year looks easier to break into than usual. The National Board of Review win adds a decent amount of momentum.5.
There are about three actors with a shot at this last slot, but Denzel's movie is getting pretty mixed reviews, with some even criticizing his performance, and Gyllenhaal's was well received, as was his performance, but his movie Stronger was a dud at the box office. The Disaster Artist, improbably, has caught buzz, being a likely player in couple of categories. Most of the film's praise has been directed at Franco, who has scored nominations at the Spirit Awards and the Gotham Awards, which he won (and has predicted a Best Actor nominee 3 out of the 4 years for the category). He's likely to win the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Comedy and, while there is no correlation between Globe and Oscar voters, that category's winner has made the Oscar cut for the last six years. No lock, but a better argument than the others. Other Possibilities
6.
His performance was very well-received, as was the film, but was it too small. It came and went in September without much notice, and that is never a good sign. Still, he's been passed over so many times that many see him as being due, and heart-string tugging biopics usually do very well here. 7.
A surprise Critic's Choice nod, as well as the expected Globe nomination, add a strong amount of momentum to Kaluuya's chances. That top five is pretty strong though, so it would take a lot. 8.
Logan appears to be having greater legs than expected (see supporting actor), and Jackman is so linked to the role that he may ride some momentum here. As mentioned in Kayluuya's chances though, this category honestly looks like it'll be tough to crack into. 9.
He's as respected as they come, but the movie's mixed reception, as well as the criticisms of his performance, give me pause. He could very well make it in on his status alone, and this category does need some diversity, but there's just very little buzz here. 10.
Garfield's coming off a nod last year, but Breathe's reviews weren't great, and there is very little buzz at the moment. I suppose it could hit some of the voters that awarded Eddie Redmayne an Oscar for a similar performance in The Theory of Everything, but that seems like a long shot.
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Best Supporting Actor
299
7.5
7.6
1.
Most have him as the favorite, but his miss at the Independent Spirit Awards, an awards body that should've went over the moon for this performance, caused a little concern. NBR picked the momentum back up, as that category has only missed predicting a nominee twice (2012 and 2013). Add in wins with the LAFCA and the NYFCC, and he's looking stronger and stronger.2.
Seems like a lock. He's been hovering towards a nomination for a while, and this looks to finally get him over the hump. 3.
While handsome younger actors are often passed over, praise seems pretty unanimous for Hammer's work here, and he's got the precursor love that he needs here. No lock, but Call Me by Your Name is going to be a heavy hitter this year, so his chances look good. 4.
Another possible contender from Call Me by Your Name; Stuhlbarg is a renowned character actor that has been getting raves about his performance in the film. He's no lock, he and Hammer could end up cancelling each other out (two actors haven't been nominated here for the same film in 27 years), but he looks could here at the moment.5.
Jenkins is a highly respected character actor in a widely loved movie; he's got a very strong shot. A Critic's choice nod displays a clear amount of love for the performance. But, this is a very strong category...Other Possibilities
6.
After a surprise nomination with the Critic's Choice Awards, Stewart's chances are starting to looking pretty strong. He's exceptionally respected, and has never been nominated before. That's a narrative that could really hit. If he gets either a BAFTA or SAG nod, then he could be a genuine contender. For now, he's certainly a potential spoiler. 7.
Mitchell gives a key performance in a film that has a strong amount of respect. While he does appear to be a bit of a longshot at the moment, this category usually gives us a surprise or two.8.
Rylance is very respected, he won in this category just two years ago, but is his work enough to stand out in a crowded cast? Certainly he gives a strong performance, but the acting in Dunkirk really takes a back seat to the technical skills on display. He'll likely score a BAFTA nod, but if he can get a SAG one too, then he's probably in. 9.
Romano's performance is of the likable variety; the kind that impresses you and that you generally root for. While that usually isn't a check-mark for this category (it's usually evil pricks that win here), Romano's work is strong enough that voters may put him in as the sentimental pick. 10.
He's been on fire lately, and his performance in Darkest Hour is earning raves, but the film's momentum seems to have stalled, and this isn't exactly a new real life figure to hit the big screen (Colin Firth won an Oscar for playing him). Could surprise, but doesn't really look likely, at the moment at least.
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Best Supporting Actress
425
7.1
7.5
1.
Presumably the favorite in an always fluctuating category; Metcalf is once again getting stellar reviews in a supporting turn. She's a lock for a nomination, and the fact that she's been in the industry for so long points to her being "due" for one. 2.
Another TV veteran looking to get her due, Janney gives another acclaimed performance in I, Tonya. I wouldn't call anyone, aside from Metcalf, a lock, but Janney looks the likeliest to join her.3.
After #1 and #2, things get decidedly murky. There are a lot of contenders but none that are seemingly going to win. As such, strong performances from likable performances, and ones overdue for nominations, are often championed. Hunter's work in The Big Sick certainly checks the first box; it's strong work in a film that may not be able to get much love anywhere else. With that in mind, I think she makes it in (for now).4.
Blige doesn't get the most to do in Mudbound, but it's an understated, breakthrough performance this is surprisingly lived-in a human. She's no lock, but this is another situation where the film may not get as much action as it should, and the Academy looks to give it a few nods. Blige looks good enough here to follow that path.5.
Spencer is an Oscar-favorite in a movie that could do quite well this year. This is a pretty wide open field, and that's really as good of an indicator as we're gonna get this early. If she misses any precursor, expect her to fall out here.Other Possibilities
6.
Veteran british actress whose said to have a great part in PT Anderson's new flick. Somebody the British wing of the Academy could really rally behind, though No. 7 could take a couple. If she scores a BAFTA nod, look for her to take the #5 spot.7.
Haddish is having a breakout moment right now; so much so that she shocked everyone when she won the New York Film Critic Circle award in their equivalent category. That precursor is such a surprisingly strong at predicting a nominee here that it would feel shortsighted to leave her out of the conversation. Add in the major Critics' Choice nomination, and she is picking up momentum at exactly the right time. 8.
She scored a surprising Critics' Choice nod, but I'm just not seeing it at the moment. Downsizing isn't getting particularly strong reviews, and doesn't have any buzz at the moment. She's been marked as the highlight of the film though, and Alexander Payne's last four movies have scored at least one acting nomination (his last five have scored at least one nomination). Certainly a possibility.9.
I had her as the winner early in the year, but the film's not doing that well, in terms of momentum, and I'm not sure she makes a big enough impression. Could, but looking less and less likely.10.
A veteran character actress whose yet to receive her Oscar due. It's likely the film is too small, but nominations at the Gotham's and Independent Spirit Awards imply that there may be more juice here than predicted.
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Best Original Screenplay
666
7.9
8.1
1.
Likeliest nominee; lock.2.
Another lock; could even surprise and take the thing.3.
Yet another lock that could also win; this is an exceptionally strong category.4.
Probably not going to win, but looks pretty strong for a nomination. If The Post is going to be a major BP contender, then it'll have to get nominated here.5.
While a very strong contender, it's the unsafest of this five-script powerhouse category. del Toro's work is so visually oriented that the influence-heavy script could fall off. I expect to see it in there for now, but it could fall out of the category.Other Possibilities
6.
Anderson often does very well for his screenplays, and the precursors are lining up left and right for his work here. If the film catches a wave of momentum, then he may well be a major contender for this prize.7.
A deft crowdpleaser that has a lot of support, but the category is very strong. I don't see it making it in, but a WGA nod could definitely change my mind (that is, if the scripts above are eligible).8.
Similar to #8's predicament, but The Florida Project is getting a bit of momentum now. If it get's strong pockets of supporters, it could surprise.9.
The movie is likely to get a lot of love, but Dunkirk is a director's movie, not a writer's one. If it gets in here, for this script, Dunkirk is winning Best Picture.10.
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Best Adapted Screenplay
484
7.8
7.8
Call Me by Your Name (2017)
1.
This category is so damn light that Ivory can probably go ahead and write an acceptance speech. 2.
While Netflix will likely have trouble getting Mudbound in for Best Picture, I'd be surprised if it couldn't manage a screenplay nod. The category is thin, the film is getting great reviews, and it's the only other genuine BP contender in here outside of Call Me by Your Name. Most likely, its in.3.
Another beneficiary of this category's slim pickings; Molly's Game is another mile-a-second Sorkin script, boasting his usual gift for dialogue, and the reviews have been quite kind. While he missed for Steve Jobs a few years ago, that was a stacked category; this isn't. 4.
Is it possible that the worst script of all time could be the basis for an Oscar-nominated one. It looks entire possible, if not surprisingly probable. The Disaster Artist is getting great reviews, and being set in the movie business certainly helps. It's billed as being both funny and touching, and the absurdity of the plot should attract more voters. 5.
Other Possibilities
6.
Linklater is very respected though, it may not be too difficult for voters to get behind him. 7.
It's a thin category, and Wonder scored a Critics' Choice nomination in this category. While I'm not quite sure it can duplicate this result at the Oscars, I will be if it gets a WGA nomination. 8.
9.
Reviews were strong, and the category is weak. There is a outside shot that this could happen.10.
Well liked enough that it could surprise in a slight year for the category.
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Best Animated Feature
769
7.4
8.4
Coco (2017)
1.
The winner.2.
3.
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5.
Other Possibilities
6.
7.
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10.
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Best Foreign Language Film
199
7.2
7.1
The Square (2017)
1.
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3.
4.
5.
The weakest reviewed of the bunch, but Haneke is beloved, so this will probably make the cut.
Other Possibilities
6.
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10.
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Best Documentary
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Best Cinematography
985
7.8
8
1.
After 13 nominations over his legendary career, Deakins has his best shot ever at taking a top prize. It's no lock yet, the competition is too stiff this year, but he's guaranteed a nomination.2.
Van Hoytema's blistering work on Dunkirk is certain to get a nomination, and could win for his landmark Imax camerawork.3.
Laustsen's Douglas Sirk inspired work on this gothic fairy-tale romance is sure to be nominated.4.
No woman has ever been nominated for the Best Cinematography Oscar; that may change come January. Morrison's high contrast, earth-toned period flick features countless memorable shots, and often tells the story (the film has a lot of narration that often cedes control to her). No lock, but looking strong.5.
The #5 spot isn't heavily contested, so I'll go with Oscar-favorite Delbonnel for now. While Darkest Hour is losing momentum, Delbonnel has four previous nominations, and his work for this film is quite striking. There's a couple of solid competitors though...Other Possibilities
6.
...and Call Me by Your Name is certainly a major player. Mukdeeprom's work is being heavily touted, but I'm not sure it's "dynamic" enough. It looks lovely, though the major argument against that is the architecture and locations are naturally beautiful, even without his contribution.7.
While Woody Allen's films are going to be getting a lot more scrutiny for the foreseeable future, Storaro's work is so distractingly good here that he may just be able to break through that wall of loathing. It helps that he's a living legend, with three Oscars to his name. Could certainly be a surprise spoiler. 8.
Lachman is a previous nominee who creates two separate visual palates for Wonderstruck, one, including, awards cat-knip black and white. However, the film has lost all the momentum that it once had, and his chances are looking rough. Possible, but not probable.9.
10.
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Best Score
368
7.6
7.4
1.
2.
3.
When John Williams does a Spielberg movie (or really, any movie), you can go ahead and write him in (I couldn't even find a snippet of the score to link it yet, though).4.
5.
Other Possibilities
7. Dario Marionelli- Darkest Hour
8. Michael Giacchino- Coco
9. Michael Giacchino- War for the Planet of the Apes
10. Mychael Danna & Jeff Danna- The Breadwinner
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Best Song
725
6
7.1
Beauty and the Beast (2017)
1.
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3.
4.
5.
Other Possibilities
7."Mighty River"- Mudbound
8."Prayers for This World"- Cries from Syria
9."It Ain't Fair"- Detroit
10."Never Forget"- Murder on the Orient Express
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Best Production Design
782
7
7.3
1.
Guillermo del Toro's films are always immaculately made, and The Shape of Water continues that trend. Guaranteed a nomination, and is likely the frontrunner. 2.
Lock.3.
Crowley's work with Christoper Nolan has netted him three nominations, and Dunkirk's, while not the most flashy, accurate and realistic designs will likely get him his fourth. 4.
After the first three, there are about five films competing for two spots (i.e. these are more guesses than others). With that in mind, I'll take Phantom Thread at #4; it's subtle, restrained, era-appropriate work that fit's the film's quiet intensity. 5.
Murder and the Orient Express is just the right mix of showy and restrained; Clay and Alleways creation of the titular train pops with details. I solid contender, though...Other Possibilities
6.
Striking work from the four-times nominated duo of Greenwood and Spencer, but is it too much? While it's strong, it isn't what you'd call "real"; feels too big, too gaudy. Big is usually better here, but I think the (likely) CGI heavy sets will be passed over in favor of more practical work. 7.
Again, it's very good work from this duo, but is it enough? Where there work from Beauty and the Beast may be too big, this one may be too normal; we've seen this period and setting before, and there's not much to change from it. 8.
9.
10.
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Best Costume Design
437
6.1
6.5
1.
Here's where the gaudiest of gaudy work gets paid. Durran's recreation, and elaboration, or the original film is filled with flashy, eye-catching costumes that'll surely receive a nomination (though it's too early to say she's the "favorite" here).2.
It's about a costume designer in the 1950s; voters likely creamed their jeans when the heard that. 3.
Period setting, sci-fi premise; this should be in.4.
Here is where we start to get into the "gut reactions" portion of the category. While Orient Express wasn't the best received film, nor does it have much momentum, I think it's got a couple things working for it. First, the British-ness of it all; the above nominees will have a broad consensus, this film could be able to hit big with British voters, and be championed by them. Second, this is a time period, early 20th Century (here, the 1930s) that always does exceptionally well.5.
Other Possibilities
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10.
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Best Editing
868
7.3
7.7
1. Lee Smith- Dunkirk
2. Joe Walker- Blade Runner 2049
3. Sidney Wolinsky- The Shape of Water
4. Gregory Plotkin- Get Out
5. Jonathan Amos & Paul Machliss- Baby Driver
Other Possibilities
6. Michael Kahn and Sarah Broshar- The Post
7. Bob Ducsay- Star Wars: The Last Jedi
8. Jon Gregory- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
9. Valerio Bonelli- Darkest Hour
10. Walter Fasano- Call Me by Your Name
2. Joe Walker- Blade Runner 2049
3. Sidney Wolinsky- The Shape of Water
4. Gregory Plotkin- Get Out
5. Jonathan Amos & Paul Machliss- Baby Driver
6. Michael Kahn and Sarah Broshar- The Post
7. Bob Ducsay- Star Wars: The Last Jedi
8. Jon Gregory- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
9. Valerio Bonelli- Darkest Hour
10. Walter Fasano- Call Me by Your Name
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Best Sound Editing
980
6.3
6.9
1. Dunkirk
2. Blade Runner 2049
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
4. Baby Driver
5. The Shape of Water
Other Possibilities
6. War for the Planet of the Apes
7. Wonder Woman
8. Detroit
9. Only the Brave
10. Logan
2. Blade Runner 2049
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
4. Baby Driver
5. The Shape of Water
6. War for the Planet of the Apes
7. Wonder Woman
8. Detroit
9. Only the Brave
10. Logan
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Best Sound Mixing
838
7.2
7.6
1. Dunkirk
2. Blade Runner 2049
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
4. Baby Driver
5. War for the Planet of the Apes
Other Possibilities
6. The Shape of Water
7. Beauty and the Beast
8. The Greatest Showman
9. Wonder Woman
10. The Post
2. Blade Runner 2049
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
4. Baby Driver
5. War for the Planet of the Apes
6. The Shape of Water
7. Beauty and the Beast
8. The Greatest Showman
9. Wonder Woman
10. The Post
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Best Makeup & Hairstyling
1097
7.2
7.6
1.
This is a no-brainer. Even if the film does completely fall off, it would be a big surprise to see this miss here.2.
The man-fish is another makeup highlight for del Toro, a director who often does well in this category. 3.
After the first two, things get a bit murky. Sequel don't do that well here, but between this and the other potential nominees, the work in Guardians stands out the most. But...Other Possibilities
4.
The conventional pick, but more hairstyling than makeup (which has hurt contenders in the past). 5.
If it can make the shortlist, which the last one didn't, then it may have a chance. Otherwise, I'm guessing that it'll be overlooked.6.
A stealth contender; the movie has great reviews and has been lighting up the box office. The fact that there's only real bit of makeup in may hurt it's chances compared to the bigger players. 7.
It's startling, eye-catching work, but my thinking is that Get Out is the only horror movie that'll be branching out this year. 8.
9.
10.
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Best Visual Effects
493
6.8
7.4
1.
While they probably won't give the franchise the visual effects Oscar that it deserves, there's no greater lock here than Apes. The work is phenomenal, and the first two were nominated. 2.
Another lock; likely Apes greatest threat. 3.
Only one Star Wars movie has ever missed in the VFX category (Revenge of the Sith), and The Last Jedi's work looks pretty strong. It would be a surprise to see it miss.4.
It's a likely BP frontrunner with a CGI lead character; it should, in theory, be a strong contender here. Not a lock like the first three, but a strong contender.5.
Marvel, mostly, does pretty well here, and they've got two pretty strong contenders this year. While Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 is definitely a solid prospect, Thor 3 has a lot of momentum, and the visual effects are strong. The least firm of the five, as this category has a lot of possibilities. Other Possibilities
6.
Dunkirk is going to get a lot of love come Oscar Sunday, but can it crack VFX? Nolan's film's often do well here, winning twice (Inception and Interstellar), but the work here is so unnoticeable that it'll could be seen by many as being too practical. 7.
There's a lot of effects action going on in Guardians, including the planet of Ego, which has been called the biggest visual effect of all time. Does the film have momentum though? It was strong, but reaction wasn't as big as the original, and Marvel had other great successes this year. My thinking is that it gets lost in the shuffle, but it could definitely crack the top five. 8.
While the effects might not have been the strongest part of Wonder Woman, the movie's got enough love that it could end up surprising in a few below-the-line categories (if it does, it's probably getting a BP nod). Still, this one seems like a bit of a long shot. 9.
The reviews were not kind, and the box office even less so, but Ghost in the Shell could be one of those obscure Oscar nominees that nobody really ever considered. Its a longshot, but the work is so strong here that it could surprise. 10.
Not very good, but the film was so big that the Academy may want to get it in as many categories as possible.
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