Preliminary 2017 Academy Awards Predictions

1.

It did very well with the L.A. Critics, and eventually scored a whopping 14 Critic' Choice nominations, and 7 Golden Globe nods. I think we can start calling this the frontrunner.

2.

Christopher Nolan's epic would be the favorite, but does have a few issues with historically needed categories down the line. Also, the critics' groups haven't been too kind to it; however, smaller movies are always going to do better with critics groups than guilds. Most likely in and, if the Brits champion it hardcore (which they will), it could go all the way.

3.

NBR winner, with early screening garnering a lot of praise; The Post is starting to look like a it could become the favorite. Spielberg has a strong track record with the Academy as of late, and the film is timely as hell.

4.

A critical smash; Three Billboards has a strong backing (Fox Searchlight), and precursor love. It won the People's Choice Award at the Toronto Film Festival, which has picked a BP nod eight out of the past ten years.

5.

While it could end up experiencing some unintended backlash related to the sexual misconduct scandals plaguing Hollywood lately (it features a relationship between a 17-year-old and a twenty-something), it'll likely be able to get away from them, a become this year's major LGBT-themed Oscar-player.

6.

While coming-of-age stories are a bit hit-or-miss with the Academy, Lady Bird is getting superb reviews, and is lighting up the specialty box office. Plus, while the film will be absolutely acclaimed for its merits, stories by/about women are going to be held up this year more than previous ones, and this is the most likely female-directed picture to make it in this year. A solid contender.

7.

A critical and commercial smash that's had surprising staying-power. While no lock, the fact that it's one of the few legitimate minority made/led films that could actually make the cut. Probably in, though it could fall of it #10 has more power than expected.

8.

There's always a major Brit-pic in the pack, and Darkest Hour is really the only possible candidate. It's gotten solid reviews, though not earth-shattering, but British-biopics are like cat-nip to Academy voters, and movies that win Best Actor have almost-always get into BP (spoilers for Best Actor).

9.

Though The Florida Project is the smallest of the bunch, it does appear to have a loyal fanbase. The reviews have been excellent, and A24 has been on fire the last few years. This one is small enough that it could be seen as this year's Moonlight. It is however, small and there are a few other contenders that could take the last spot...

Other Possibilities

10.

After surprise nods at the Critics' Choice Awards and a spot on AFI's Top Ten list, The Big Sick has a decent amount of momentum. If it can follow that up with bids at the PGAs, then this could be surprise player. It would also help if #8 continues to lose momentum.

11.

It's got great reviews and the diverse cast/crew that the Academy sorely need to highlight, but can it overcome the Netflix hurdle? That's the biggest question on the table for Mudbound. If it starts to gain traction with the guilds, beyond the SAGs (which Beasts of No Nation somehow managed to sneak into; i.e. the actors are done for some Netflix), then it could be a real player. If not, it'll just be another talking point for the cinephile community.

12.

The last time that PT Anderson and Daniel Day-Lewis made a movie together, it was the biggest BP threat to No Country for Old Men in 2007. If it's great, it could make it in, but the buzz is just now startin for it beyond Best Actor (and maybe costumes), and nobody has even seen it. It would need a groundswell of support, and it would definitely need to be less divisive than his last two (Inherent Vice and The Master).

13.

It's a movie about movies, and it's a crowdpleaser; if it gets momentum, it could be the surprise player we've been looking. The hurdle; are voters willing to get behind such a goofy movie? Are they willing to let a James Franco movie be a BP contender. My gut says no for now, but it would be a fun surprise.

14.

As I mentioned above, women's stories are going to be considered more highly than ever before. Wonder Woman making the cut would be a huge statement; powerful women can compete with the "boy's club". That said, no comic book movie has ever made the cut here, and there's not many chances for nominations down the line; you're not getting a BP nod if it's going to be your only one. Plus, I can't help but feel that Justice League's shellacking could prove a difficult hurdle to overcome. A precursor that could bode well for it's chances; Patty Jenkins getting a DGA nod. Comic book movies don't usually get both PGA and DGA (outside of The Dark Knight, which competed in a five-picture field), and if it can, that means there's broad support for the film. Otherwise, it'll likely come down to the wire.

15.

The Greatest Showman is the last unknown player of the season. No reviews, screenings; no buzz at all. If it's good, then it has a possible shot (it is a musical, after all), but the fact that Fox isn't touting this is a bad sign.

1.

Christopher Nolan- DunkirkEven if Dunkirk doesn't win Best Picture, Nolan looks like he'll be winning his first Oscar in directing. The film is such a singular directorial achievement, in both storytelling a scope, that it's hard to see him missing for his all-out assault of a film.

2.

Guillermo del Toro- The Shape of WaterAnother singular vision; The Shape of Water is a critical smash that's likely to do well across the board. It would be surprise if del Toro didn't score his first Best Director nomination here.

3.

Steven Spielberg- The PostIf The Post is going to be a major player, and it appears that it will be, then Spielberg will certainly be in the conversation for Best Director. Trademark directorial touches go a long way in this category; the directors' branch goes for the "respectable" choices, and Spielberg is one the best around. If it's good, he'll probably be in.

4.

Greta Gerwig- Lady BirdThis will be mentioned in several justifications for this list; this will be an awards season where awards-bodies will try to recognize female-oriented stories. Of the female directors, Gerwig seems to have the strongest chance; the film is getting excellent buzz, and it's an indie film from a distinct voice. While she's certainly no lock (no one outside of del Toro and Nolan are), her chances look pretty good this early in the game.

5.

Luca Guadagnino- Call Me by Your NameCall Me by Your Name looks like a solid bet for several categories, and director is no exception. Distinct films for "artistic" directors often do well here, and I expect that to be the case again here.

Other Possibilities

6.

Jordan Peele- Get Out

7.

Martin McDonagh- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

8.

Dee Rees- Mudbound

9.

Sean Baker- The Florida Project

10.

Patty Jenkins- Wonder Woman

1.

Sally Hawkins- The Shape of WaterGuaranteed a nomination, and will likely go neck and neck with #2 for the win. It'll just depend which movie has more heat.

2.

Frances McDormand- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, MissouriLock.

3.

Meryl Streep- The PostMeryl Streep in a Spielberg movie = yet another Oscar nomination.

4.

Saoirse Ronan- Lady BirdRonan is yet again getting superb reviews for her work in Lady Bird. I wouldn't call her a lock yet, the film's stock could plummet over the course of the season, but she looks like a strong player this year.

5.

Jessica Chastain- Molly's GameThere are several contenders for the final spot, but I see Chastain being able to break through. Firstly, she's in an Aaron Sorkin-penned film, and six out of the seven film's that he's written have gotten a performer a nomination. Second, she's exceptionally respected, and has been a prominent voice in the Hollywood #metoo movement (everything affects these things). It's tough, but I'm leaning with her, but...

Other Possibilities

6.

Margot Robbie- I, TonyaRobbie is getting the best notices of her career for the film, and she's gaining momentum, with this potentially being her awards-breakout. I suppose it just depends on how much momentum the film is able to grab; if it doesn't perform up to expectations and she misses a couple of key precursors (SAG, BAFTA, Critics' Choice), then it's unlikely. In essence, this one is coming down to Chastain and Robbie.

7.

Emma Stone- Battle of the SexesLast year's winner give another acclaimed performance here, but the film didn't sustain a lot of momentum and didn't get the best of reviews. Plus, her win last year doesn't give her nomination much urgency (i.e. she already has one). It's possible, but it looks to crowded above for her to move up.

8.

Judi Dench- Victoria & AbdulDench is a legend, and this is the type of mild prestige picture that could surprise when no one is looking. It's unlikely, but if she picks up a SAG nod (go ahead and presume that she gets a BAFTA nomination) then she may have an outside shot.

9.

Kate Winslet- Wonder WheelOnce again, Winslet is getting superb reviews, but Woody Allen films are going to be skating in here again anytime soon. This being his film, I think his presence will taint her chances.

10.

Gal Gadot- Wonder WomanWonder Woman could be a surprise player this year, and it's chances will raise Gadot's. While a strong performance though, it's not one that screams OSCAR! My thinking is that the Academy goes for the more bait-y performances, though if the film gets momentum anything is possible.

1.

Gary Oldman- Darkest HourThis is a weak year for Best Actor, and Oldman is due. While he's been left out in the cold when it comes to early Critics' group awards, I think he'll turn it around (though his status as foregone winner has been smashed).

2.

Timothée Chalamet- Call Me by Your NameA breakout performance in an Oscar frontrunner gives Chalamet a leg up in a rather depleted field. While I wouldn't say he's a lock, young actors are often passed over in favor of established names, he looks like a strong contender. It certainly helps that he's been cleaning up this category early (wins at NYFCC and the LAFCA means he's got a lot of support from coast to coast).

3.

Daniel Day-Lewis- Phantom ThreadThis is likely to be his final film performance, and he's won more of these than any other man. If it's even slightly good, he's a lock. If it's great, then we may have the makings of a spoiler on our hands.

4.

Tom Hanks- The PostCan Hanks finally get another Best Actor nomination after a seventeen year drought? Early word is strong, with buzz that the role is somewhat a departure from his usual good guy routine (one early notice said that he was something of a bastard). While it is entirely plausible that he'll get passed over again, this year looks easier to break into than usual. The National Board of Review win adds a decent amount of momentum.

5.

James Franco- The Disaster ArtistThere are about three actors with a shot at this last slot, but Denzel's movie is getting pretty mixed reviews, with some even criticizing his performance, and Gyllenhaal's was well received, as was his performance, but his movie Stronger was a dud at the box office. The Disaster Artist, improbably, has caught buzz, being a likely player in couple of categories. Most of the film's praise has been directed at Franco, who has scored nominations at the Spirit Awards and the Gotham Awards, which he won (and has predicted a Best Actor nominee 3 out of the 4 years for the category). He's likely to win the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Comedy and, while there is no correlation between Globe and Oscar voters, that category's winner has made the Oscar cut for the last six years. No lock, but a better argument than the others.

Other Possibilities

6.

Jake Gyllenhaal- StrongerHis performance was very well-received, as was the film, but was it too small. It came and went in September without much notice, and that is never a good sign. Still, he's been passed over so many times that many see him as being due, and heart-string tugging biopics usually do very well here.

7.

Daniel Kaluuya- Get OutA surprise Critic's Choice nod, as well as the expected Globe nomination, add a strong amount of momentum to Kaluuya's chances. That top five is pretty strong though, so it would take a lot.

8.

Hugh Jackman- LoganLogan appears to be having greater legs than expected (see supporting actor), and Jackman is so linked to the role that he may ride some momentum here. As mentioned in Kayluuya's chances though, this category honestly looks like it'll be tough to crack into.

9.

Denzel Washington- Roman J. Israel, Esq.He's as respected as they come, but the movie's mixed reception, as well as the criticisms of his performance, give me pause. He could very well make it in on his status alone, and this category does need some diversity, but there's just very little buzz here.

10.

Andrew Garfield- BreatheGarfield's coming off a nod last year, but Breathe's reviews weren't great, and there is very little buzz at the moment. I suppose it could hit some of the voters that awarded Eddie Redmayne an Oscar for a similar performance in The Theory of Everything, but that seems like a long shot.

1.

Willem Dafoe- The Florida ProjectMost have him as the favorite, but his miss at the Independent Spirit Awards, an awards body that should've went over the moon for this performance, caused a little concern. NBR picked the momentum back up, as that category has only missed predicting a nominee twice (2012 and 2013). Add in wins with the LAFCA and the NYFCC, and he's looking stronger and stronger.

2.

Sam Rockwell- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, MissouriSeems like a lock. He's been hovering towards a nomination for a while, and this looks to finally get him over the hump.

3.

Armie Hammer- Call Me by Your NameWhile handsome younger actors are often passed over, praise seems pretty unanimous for Hammer's work here, and he's got the precursor love that he needs here. No lock, but Call Me by Your Name is going to be a heavy hitter this year, so his chances look good.

4.

Michael Stuhlbarg- Call Me by Your NameAnother possible contender from Call Me by Your Name; Stuhlbarg is a renowned character actor that has been getting raves about his performance in the film. He's no lock, he and Hammer could end up cancelling each other out (two actors haven't been nominated here for the same film in 27 years), but he looks could here at the moment.

5.

Richard Jenkins- The Shape of WaterJenkins is a highly respected character actor in a widely loved movie; he's got a very strong shot. A Critic's choice nod displays a clear amount of love for the performance. But, this is a very strong category...

Other Possibilities

6.

Patrick Stewart- LoganAfter a surprise nomination with the Critic's Choice Awards, Stewart's chances are starting to looking pretty strong. He's exceptionally respected, and has never been nominated before. That's a narrative that could really hit. If he gets either a BAFTA or SAG nod, then he could be a genuine contender. For now, he's certainly a potential spoiler.

7.

Jason Mitchell- MudboundMitchell gives a key performance in a film that has a strong amount of respect. While he does appear to be a bit of a longshot at the moment, this category usually gives us a surprise or two.

8.

Mark Rylance- DunkirkRylance is very respected, he won in this category just two years ago, but is his work enough to stand out in a crowded cast? Certainly he gives a strong performance, but the acting in Dunkirk really takes a back seat to the technical skills on display. He'll likely score a BAFTA nod, but if he can get a SAG one too, then he's probably in.

9.

Ray Romano- The Big SickRomano's performance is of the likable variety; the kind that impresses you and that you generally root for. While that usually isn't a check-mark for this category (it's usually evil pricks that win here), Romano's work is strong enough that voters may put him in as the sentimental pick.

10.

Ben Mendelsohn- Darkest HourHe's been on fire lately, and his performance in Darkest Hour is earning raves, but the film's momentum seems to have stalled, and this isn't exactly a new real life figure to hit the big screen (Colin Firth won an Oscar for playing him). Could surprise, but doesn't really look likely, at the moment at least.

1.

Laurie Metcalf- Lady BirdPresumably the favorite in an always fluctuating category; Metcalf is once again getting stellar reviews in a supporting turn. She's a lock for a nomination, and the fact that she's been in the industry for so long points to her being "due" for one.

2.

Allison Janney- I, TonyaAnother TV veteran looking to get her due, Janney gives another acclaimed performance in I, Tonya. I wouldn't call anyone, aside from Metcalf, a lock, but Janney looks the likeliest to join her.

3.

Holly Hunter- The Big SickAfter #1 and #2, things get decidedly murky. There are a lot of contenders but none that are seemingly going to win. As such, strong performances from likable performances, and ones overdue for nominations, are often championed. Hunter's work in The Big Sick certainly checks the first box; it's strong work in a film that may not be able to get much love anywhere else. With that in mind, I think she makes it in (for now).

4.

Mary J. Blige- MudboundBlige doesn't get the most to do in Mudbound, but it's an understated, breakthrough performance this is surprisingly lived-in a human. She's no lock, but this is another situation where the film may not get as much action as it should, and the Academy looks to give it a few nods. Blige looks good enough here to follow that path.

5.

Octavia Spencer- The Shape of WaterSpencer is an Oscar-favorite in a movie that could do quite well this year. This is a pretty wide open field, and that's really as good of an indicator as we're gonna get this early. If she misses any precursor, expect her to fall out here.

Other Possibilities

6.

Lesley Manville- Phantom ThreadVeteran british actress whose said to have a great part in PT Anderson's new flick. Somebody the British wing of the Academy could really rally behind, though No. 7 could take a couple. If she scores a BAFTA nod, look for her to take the #5 spot.

7.

Tiffany Haddish- Girls TripHaddish is having a breakout moment right now; so much so that she shocked everyone when she won the New York Film Critic Circle award in their equivalent category. That precursor is such a surprisingly strong at predicting a nominee here that it would feel shortsighted to leave her out of the conversation. Add in the major Critics' Choice nomination, and she is picking up momentum at exactly the right time.

8.

Hong Chau- DownsizingShe scored a surprising Critics' Choice nod, but I'm just not seeing it at the moment. Downsizing isn't getting particularly strong reviews, and doesn't have any buzz at the moment. She's been marked as the highlight of the film though, and Alexander Payne's last four movies have scored at least one acting nomination (his last five have scored at least one nomination). Certainly a possibility.

9.

Kristin Scott Thomas- Darkest HourI had her as the winner early in the year, but the film's not doing that well, in terms of momentum, and I'm not sure she makes a big enough impression. Could, but looking less and less likely.

10.

Lois Smith- Marjorie PrimeA veteran character actress whose yet to receive her Oscar due. It's likely the film is too small, but nominations at the Gotham's and Independent Spirit Awards imply that there may be more juice here than predicted.

1.

Martin McDonagh- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, MissouriLikeliest nominee; lock.

2.

Jordan Peele- Get OutAnother lock; could even surprise and take the thing.

3.

Greta Gerwig- Lady BirdYet another lock that could also win; this is an exceptionally strong category.

4.

Liz Hannah and Josh Singer- The PostProbably not going to win, but looks pretty strong for a nomination. If The Post is going to be a major BP contender, then it'll have to get nominated here.

5.

Guillermo del Toro and Vanessa Taylor- The Shape of WaterWhile a very strong contender, it's the unsafest of this five-script powerhouse category. del Toro's work is so visually oriented that the influence-heavy script could fall off. I expect to see it in there for now, but it could fall out of the category.

Other Possibilities

6.

Paul Thomas Anderson- Phantom ThreadAnderson often does very well for his screenplays, and the precursors are lining up left and right for his work here. If the film catches a wave of momentum, then he may well be a major contender for this prize.

7.

Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani- The Big SickA deft crowdpleaser that has a lot of support, but the category is very strong. I don't see it making it in, but a WGA nod could definitely change my mind (that is, if the scripts above are eligible).

8.

Sean Baker & Chris Bergoch- The Florida ProjectSimilar to #8's predicament, but The Florida Project is getting a bit of momentum now. If it get's strong pockets of supporters, it could surprise.

9.

Christopher Nolan- DunkirkThe movie is likely to get a lot of love, but Dunkirk is a director's movie, not a writer's one. If it gets in here, for this script, Dunkirk is winning Best Picture.

10.

Matthew Aldrich, Jason Katz, Adrian Molina and Lee Unkrich - Coco

1.

James Ivory- Call Me by Your NameThis category is so damn light that Ivory can probably go ahead and write an acceptance speech.

2.

Virgil Williams and Dee Rees- MudboundWhile Netflix will likely have trouble getting Mudbound in for Best Picture, I'd be surprised if it couldn't manage a screenplay nod. The category is thin, the film is getting great reviews, and it's the only other genuine BP contender in here outside of Call Me by Your Name. Most likely, its in.

3.

Aaron Sorkin- Molly's GameAnother beneficiary of this category's slim pickings; Molly's Game is another mile-a-second Sorkin script, boasting his usual gift for dialogue, and the reviews have been quite kind. While he missed for Steve Jobs a few years ago, that was a stacked category; this isn't.

4.

Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber- The Disaster ArtistIs it possible that the worst script of all time could be the basis for an Oscar-nominated one. It looks entire possible, if not surprisingly probable. The Disaster Artist is getting great reviews, and being set in the movie business certainly helps. It's billed as being both funny and touching, and the absurdity of the plot should attract more voters.

5.

Sofia Coppola- The BeguiledFor the fifth spot, it would appear to come down to this, Last Flag Flying, and Wonderstruck. Wonderstruck ended up having a much more muted response than respected, so too did Last Flag Flying, which was liked more than outright respected. The Beguiled didn't receive universal praise, but it was highly respected by some, and there's likely to be a greater emphasis on female stories this year than in years before.

Other Possibilities

6.

Richard Linklater & Darryl Ponicsan- Last Flag FlyingLinklater is very respected though, it may not be too difficult for voters to get behind him.

7.

Stephen Chbosky, Steven Conrad and Jack Thorne- WonderIt's a thin category, and Wonder scored a Critics' Choice nomination in this category. While I'm not quite sure it can duplicate this result at the Oscars, I will be if it gets a WGA nomination.

8.

Brian Selznick- Wonderstruck

9.

Scott Frank, Michael Green and James Mangold- LoganReviews were strong, and the category is weak. There is a outside shot that this could happen.

10.

Allan Heinberg and Zack Snyder & Jason Fuchs- Wonder WomanWell liked enough that it could surprise in a slight year for the category.

1.

The winner.

2.

3.

4.

5.

Other Possibilities

6.

7.

8.

9.

10.

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

The weakest reviewed of the bunch, but Haneke is beloved, so this will probably make the cut.

Other Possibilities

6.

7.

8.

9.

10.

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

Other Possibilities

6.

7.

8.

9.

10.

1.

Roger Deakins- Blade Runner 2049After 13 nominations over his legendary career, Deakins has his best shot ever at taking a top prize. It's no lock yet, the competition is too stiff this year, but he's guaranteed a nomination.

2.

Hoyte Van Hoytema- DunkirkVan Hoytema's blistering work on Dunkirk is certain to get a nomination, and could win for his landmark Imax camerawork.

3.

Dan Laustsen- The Shape of WaterLaustsen's Douglas Sirk inspired work on this gothic fairy-tale romance is sure to be nominated.

4.

Rachel Morrison- MudboundNo woman has ever been nominated for the Best Cinematography Oscar; that may change come January. Morrison's high contrast, earth-toned period flick features countless memorable shots, and often tells the story (the film has a lot of narration that often cedes control to her). No lock, but looking strong.

5.

Bruno Delbonnel- Darkest HourThe #5 spot isn't heavily contested, so I'll go with Oscar-favorite Delbonnel for now. While Darkest Hour is losing momentum, Delbonnel has four previous nominations, and his work for this film is quite striking. There's a couple of solid competitors though...

Other Possibilities

6.

Sayombhu Mukdeeprom- Call Me by Your Name...and Call Me by Your Name is certainly a major player. Mukdeeprom's work is being heavily touted, but I'm not sure it's "dynamic" enough. It looks lovely, though the major argument against that is the architecture and locations are naturally beautiful, even without his contribution.

7.

Vittorio Storaro- Wonder WheelWhile Woody Allen's films are going to be getting a lot more scrutiny for the foreseeable future, Storaro's work is so distractingly good here that he may just be able to break through that wall of loathing. It helps that he's a living legend, with three Oscars to his name. Could certainly be a surprise spoiler.

8.

Edward Lachman- WonderstruckLachman is a previous nominee who creates two separate visual palates for Wonderstruck, one, including, awards cat-knip black and white. However, the film has lost all the momentum that it once had, and his chances are looking rough. Possible, but not probable.

9.

Philippe Le Sourd- The Beguiled

10.

Alexis Zabe- The Florida Project

1.

Hans Zimmer- DunkirkThe thunder that Zimmer brings to Dunkirk is almost like a character itself. It's sure to be nominated, though it may not be "traditional" enough to win.

2.

Alexandre Desplat- The Shape of WaterDesplat is an Oscar-favorite who rarely does work that's below "good". His work for this film is exemplary, and could net him his second Oscar.

3.

John Williams- The PostWhen John Williams does a Spielberg movie (or really, any movie), you can go ahead and write him in (I couldn't even find a snippet of the score to link it yet, though).

4.

Jonny Greenwood- Phantom ThreadGreenwood's work with PTA always gets praised, but his haunting work for Phantom Thread is getting routinely tipped for Oscar. Not a lock (unlike #1-3), but a reasonable pick this early in the game.

5.

Benjamin Wallfisch and Hans Zimmer- Blade Runner 2049Maybe a longer shot than the four above, but Blade Runner 2049's score is soaring triumph that honors it's predecessor and succeeds in it's own right. The question will be whether our not it's elligible; did it borrow too much from the original? We'll find out soon.

Other Possibilities

6. John Williams- Star Wars: The Last Jedi
7. Dario Marionelli- Darkest Hour
8. Michael Giacchino- Coco
9. Michael Giacchino- War for the Planet of the Apes
10. Mychael Danna & Jeff Danna- The Breadwinner

1.

"Remember Me"- CocoLikely the winner.

2.

"Mystery of Love"- Call Me by Your NameThere are a couple that could cancel each other out, but "Mystery of Love" appears to be the consensus pick at the moment.

3.

"Evermore"- Beauty and the BeastBeauty and the Beast has a couple of contenders, but "Evermore" seems to be the most agreeable of the bunch.

4.

"This is Me"- The Greatest ShowmanWhile the movie isn't going to be much of a contender this year, getting into the best song for a musical should be an easier task than other categories.

5.

"Stand Up for Something"- MarshallThere are several contenders for the last spot, but "Stand Up for Something" will likely hit that inspirational/social justice g-spot for the Academy.

Other Possibilities

6."The Promise"- The Promise
7."Mighty River"- Mudbound
8."Prayers for This World"- Cries from Syria
9."It Ain't Fair"- Detroit
10."Never Forget"- Murder on the Orient Express

1.

Paul D. Austerberry and Jeffrey A. Melvin & Shane Vieau- The Shape of WaterGuillermo del Toro's films are always immaculately made, and The Shape of Water continues that trend. Guaranteed a nomination, and is likely the frontrunner.

2.

Dennis Gassner and Alessandra Querzola- Blade Runner 2049Lock.

3.

Nathan Crowley and Gary Fettis - DunkirkCrowley's work with Christoper Nolan has netted him three nominations, and Dunkirk's, while not the most flashy, accurate and realistic designs will likely get him his fourth.

4.

Mark Tildesley and Véronique Melery - Phantom ThreadAfter the first three, there are about five films competing for two spots (i.e. these are more guesses than others). With that in mind, I'll take Phantom Thread at #4; it's subtle, restrained, era-appropriate work that fit's the film's quiet intensity.

5.

Jim Clay and Rebecca Alleway- Murder on the Orient ExpressMurder and the Orient Express is just the right mix of showy and restrained; Clay and Alleways creation of the titular train pops with details. I solid contender, though...

Other Possibilities

6.

Sarah Greenwood and Katie Spencer- Beauty and the BeastStriking work from the four-times nominated duo of Greenwood and Spencer, but is it too much? While it's strong, it isn't what you'd call "real"; feels too big, too gaudy. Big is usually better here, but I think the (likely) CGI heavy sets will be passed over in favor of more practical work.

7.

Sarah Greenwood and Katie Spencer- Darkest HourAgain, it's very good work from this duo, but is it enough? Where there work from Beauty and the Beast may be too big, this one may be too normal; we've seen this period and setting before, and there's not much to change from it.

8.

Rick Carter and Rena DeAngelo- The Post

9.

Nathan Crowley and Debra Schutt- The Greatest Showman

10.

Rick Heinrichs and Richard Roberts- Star Wars: The Last Jedi

1.

Jacqueline Durran- Beauty and the BeastHere's where the gaudiest of gaudy work gets paid. Durran's recreation, and elaboration, or the original film is filled with flashy, eye-catching costumes that'll surely receive a nomination (though it's too early to say she's the "favorite" here).

2.

Mark Bridges- Phantom ThreadIt's about a costume designer in the 1950s; voters likely creamed their jeans when the heard that.

3.

Luis Sequeira- The Shape of WaterPeriod setting, sci-fi premise; this should be in.

4.

Alexandra Byrne- Murder on the Orient ExpressHere is where we start to get into the "gut reactions" portion of the category. While Orient Express wasn't the best received film, nor does it have much momentum, I think it's got a couple things working for it. First, the British-ness of it all; the above nominees will have a broad consensus, this film could be able to hit big with British voters, and be championed by them. Second, this is a time period, early 20th Century (here, the 1930s) that always does exceptionally well.

5.

Linda Hemming- Wonder Woman

Other Possibilities

6.

Jacqueline Durran- Darkest Hour

7.

Ellen Mirojnick- The Greatest Showman

8.

Consolata Boyle- Victoria & Abdul

9.

Renée April- Blade Runner 2049

10.

Sandy Powell- Wonderstruck

1. Lee Smith- Dunkirk
2. Joe Walker- Blade Runner 2049
3. Sidney Wolinsky- The Shape of Water
4. Gregory Plotkin- Get Out
5. Jonathan Amos & Paul Machliss- Baby Driver

Other Possibilities
6. Michael Kahn and Sarah Broshar- The Post
7. Bob Ducsay- Star Wars: The Last Jedi
8. Jon Gregory- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
9. Valerio Bonelli- Darkest Hour
10. Walter Fasano- Call Me by Your Name

1. Dunkirk
2. Blade Runner 2049
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
4. Baby Driver
5. The Shape of Water

Other Possibilities
6. War for the Planet of the Apes
7. Wonder Woman
8. Detroit
9. Only the Brave
10. Logan

1. Dunkirk
2. Blade Runner 2049
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
4. Baby Driver
5. War for the Planet of the Apes

Other Possibilities
6. The Shape of Water
7. Beauty and the Beast
8. The Greatest Showman
9. Wonder Woman
10. The Post

1.

Darkest HourThis is a no-brainer. Even if the film does completely fall off, it would be a big surprise to see this miss here.

2.

The Shape of WaterThe man-fish is another makeup highlight for del Toro, a director who often does well in this category.

3.

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2After the first two, things get a bit murky. Sequel don't do that well here, but between this and the other potential nominees, the work in Guardians stands out the most. But...

Other Possibilities

4.

Beauty and the BeastThe conventional pick, but more hairstyling than makeup (which has hurt contenders in the past).

5.

Star Wars: The Last JediIf it can make the shortlist, which the last one didn't, then it may have a chance. Otherwise, I'm guessing that it'll be overlooked.

6.

WonderA stealth contender; the movie has great reviews and has been lighting up the box office. The fact that there's only real bit of makeup in may hurt it's chances compared to the bigger players.

7.

ItIt's startling, eye-catching work, but my thinking is that Get Out is the only horror movie that'll be branching out this year.

8.

Logan

9.

I, Tonya

10.

The Disaster Artist

1.

War for the Planet of the ApesWhile they probably won't give the franchise the visual effects Oscar that it deserves, there's no greater lock here than Apes. The work is phenomenal, and the first two were nominated.

2.

Blade Runner 2049Another lock; likely Apes greatest threat.

3.

Star Wars: The Last JediOnly one Star Wars movie has ever missed in the VFX category (Revenge of the Sith), and The Last Jedi's work looks pretty strong. It would be a surprise to see it miss.

4.

The Shape of WaterIt's a likely BP frontrunner with a CGI lead character; it should, in theory, be a strong contender here. Not a lock like the first three, but a strong contender.

5.

Thor: RagnarokMarvel, mostly, does pretty well here, and they've got two pretty strong contenders this year. While Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 is definitely a solid prospect, Thor 3 has a lot of momentum, and the visual effects are strong. The least firm of the five, as this category has a lot of possibilities.

Other Possibilities

6.

DunkirkDunkirk is going to get a lot of love come Oscar Sunday, but can it crack VFX? Nolan's film's often do well here, winning twice (Inception and Interstellar), but the work here is so unnoticeable that it'll could be seen by many as being too practical.

7.

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2There's a lot of effects action going on in Guardians, including the planet of Ego, which has been called the biggest visual effect of all time. Does the film have momentum though? It was strong, but reaction wasn't as big as the original, and Marvel had other great successes this year. My thinking is that it gets lost in the shuffle, but it could definitely crack the top five.

8.

Wonder WomanWhile the effects might not have been the strongest part of Wonder Woman, the movie's got enough love that it could end up surprising in a few below-the-line categories (if it does, it's probably getting a BP nod). Still, this one seems like a bit of a long shot.

9.

Ghost in the ShellThe reviews were not kind, and the box office even less so, but Ghost in the Shell could be one of those obscure Oscar nominees that nobody really ever considered. Its a longshot, but the work is so strong here that it could surprise.

10.

Beauty and the BeastNot very good, but the film was so big that the Academy may want to get it in as many categories as possible.