Predicting the Winners of the 2024 Oscars

And the Nominees are...


*American Fiction
*Anatomy of a Fall
*Barbie
*The Holdovers
*Killers of the Flower Moon
*Maestro
*Oppenheimer
*Past Lives
*Poor Things
*The Zone of Interest

And the Oscar goes to...


Maybe the biggest lock here of the last decade. It's won every precursor, was a massive success and is beloved. It has no major drawbacks, and no second-place contender to usurp. It would be an all-time upset if anything else won here.

And the Nominees are...


*Jonathan Glazer- The Zone of Interest
*Yorgos Lanthimos- Poor Things
*Christopher Nolan- Oppenheimer
*Martin Scorsese- Killers of the Flower Moon
*Justine Triet- Anatomy of a Fall

And the Oscar goes to...


Same as above. This is Nolan's.

And the Nominees are...


*Bradley Cooper- Maestro
*Colman Domingo- Rustin
*Paul Giamatti- The Holdovers
*Cillian Murphy- Oppenheimer
*Jeffrey Wright- American Fiction

And the Oscar goes to...


After the Critics' Choice Awards tried to make this a race by awarding Giamatti, Murphy took BAFTA and SAG, cementing his status as the likely winner. Oppenheimer is going to be a juggernaut.

Power Rankings
1. Murphy
2. Giamatti
3. Cooper
4. Wright
5. Domingo

And the Nominees are...


*Annette Bening- Nyad
*Lily Gladstone- Killers of the Flower Moon
*Sandra Hüller- Anatomy of a Fall
*Carey Mulligan- Maestro
*Emma Stone- Poor Things

And the Oscar goes to...


It's Gladstone or Stone, with Hüller have the slimmest of shots if they split (the fact that she couldn't win BAFTA, her best shot, makes that unlikely). Gladstone won the SAG award, Stone won BAFTA. Honestly, those precursors have a pretty split record here; last year, Cate Blanchett won BAFTA and Michelle Yeoh won SAG, with Yeoh prevailing at the Oscars; two years ago, Jessica Chastain wasn't even nominated at BAFTA but SAG, then Oscar anyway. This is a close one. My heart says Gladstone, for a star making performance, but my gut tells me Stone wins her second. Poor Things has more juice than Killers, which hasn't seen it's critical acclaim translate into much awards momentum, and Gladstone missed an easy BAFTA nomination, which leads me to believe that there's more broad support for Stone. I'd love to be wrong, but... we'll see.

Power Rankings
1. Stone
2. Gladstone
3. Hüller
4. Mulligan
5. Bening

And the nominees are...


*Sterling K. Brown- American Fiction
*Robert De Niro- Killers of the Flower Moon
*Robert Downey Jr.- Oppenheimer
*Ryan Gosling- Barbie
*Mark Ruffalo- Poor Things

And the Oscar goes to...


Another acting lock. RDJ's won everything, and Oppenheimer's going to conquer.

And the Nominees are...


*Emily Blunt- Oppenheimer
*Danielle Brooks- The Color Purple
*America Ferrera- Barbie
*Jodie Foster- Nyad
*Da'Vine Joy Randolph- The Holdovers

And the Oscar goes to...


One of the biggest guarantees of the night.

And the Nominees are...


*American Fiction- Cord Jefferson
*Barbie- Greta Gerwig & Noah Baumbach
*Oppenheimer- Christopher Nolan
*Poor Things- Tony McNamara
*The Zone of Interest- Jonathan Glazer

And the Oscar goes to...


Zone is a director's feat, so it's out. So is Poor Things to an extent, and some of the turns McNamara's screenplay takes have been the most criticized aspects of the film. Barbie could be seen as a make-up win, an apology for not putting Gerwig in director, but the film just hasn't had much heat this year and I don't expect that to change. That leaves Jefferson and Nolan, with my gut going with the former. Nolan's going to win two already, and Fiction's clearly a well-liked film (you don't score five noms on a lark). Plus, it would fit nicely into this writerly category (it's a film about writing). I feel safe with it, though understand that they could just go wild for Oppenheimer.

Power Rankings
1. Jefferson
2. Nolan
3. Gerwig & Baumbach
4. McNamara
5. Glazer

And the Nominees are...


*Anatomy of a Fall- Justine Triet and Arthur Harari
*The Holdovers- David Hemingson
*Maestro- Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer
*May December- Samy Burch and Alex Mechanik
*Past Lives- Celine Song

And the Oscar goes to...


It wouldn't be the biggest surprise to see any of these win, but it feels like Anatomy of a Fall has taken pole position. It won the BAFTA and the Golden Globe, and the film has caught fire in the past month. It's also a place to recognize filmmaker Triet, as she's not winning director of International feature. The Holdovers is well-liked and could score a win, but that film's momentum has stalled since nominations and may seem too pat for Oscar voters.

Power Rankings
1. Anatomy of a Fall
2. The Holdovers
3. Past Lives
4. May December
5. Maestro

And the Nominees are...


*20 Days in Mariupol
*Bobi Wine: The People's President
*The Eternal Memory
*Four Daughters
*To Kill a Tiger

And the Oscar goes to...


They're not going to talk about Palestinian suffering, but the Academy can show off their "concern" about the world with a win for 20 Days in Mariupol. Outside of the broader political reasoning, the film was incredibly well-received, and has won most major precursors. Seems locked in.

And the Nominees are...


*Io Capitano
*Perfect Days
*Society of the Snow
*The Teacher's Lounge
*The Zone of Interest

And the Oscar goes to...


Feels like one of the locks of the night.

And the Nominees are...


*The Boy and the Heron
*Elemental
*Nimona
*Robot Dreams
*Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

And the Oscar goes to...


This one is down to Boy and the Heron and Across the Spider-Verse. Both have big precursor wins (Boy won the Globe and BAFTA, while Spider-Verse took PGA and Annie), and both are beloved. While Miyazaki is beloved, as is his The Boy and the Heron, I think the box office success of Across the Spider-Verse push it over the top; more eyes, more notice.

Power Rankings
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
2. The Boy and the Heron
3-5. I don't know. They aren't winning.

And the nominees are...



* "The Fire Inside" from Flamin' Hot- Music & Lyrics by Diane Warren
* "I'm Just Ken" from Barbie- Music & Lyrics by Mark Ronson & Andrew Wyatt
* "It Never Went Away" from American Symphony- Music & Lyrics by John Batiste and Dan Wilson
* "Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)" from Killers of the Flower Moon- Music & Lyrics by Scott George
* "What Was I Made For?" from Barbie- Music & Lyrics by Billie Eilish & Finneas O'Connell


And the Oscar goes to...


I think it comes down to the Barbie tracks. In a tougher year they might split, but boy is this a thin field (am I really to believe that Diane Warren's finally going to win for the Cheeto movie?). "I'm Just Ken" might be the more fun of the two, with a highly memorable scene to boot, I think "What Was I Made For?"'s emotionally, ballad-y aspects fit pretty strongly with previous winners for this category. Not a lock, but feels like the Eilish/O'Connell pairing will win their second in three years.

Power Rankings
1. "What Was I Made For?"
2. "I'm Just Ken"
3. "The Fire Inside"
4. "It Never Went Away"
5. "Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)"

And the Nominees are...


*Jerskin Fendrix- Poor Things
*Ludwig - Oppenheimer
*Laura Karpman- American Fiction
*Robbie Robertson- Killers of the Flower Moon
*John Williams- Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

And the Oscar goes to...


I suppose that Robertson could score a sentimental surprise, but Göransson has won everything. I'd be stunned if he didn't pick up his second win.

And the Nominees are...


*Hoyte Van Hoytema- Oppenheimer
*Edward Lachman- El Conde
*Matthew Libatique- Maestro
*Robbie Ryan- Poor Things
*Rodrigo Prieto- Killers of the Flower Moon

And the Oscar goes to...


Van Hoytema has swept every cinematography precursor this year. He'll continue that here.

And the Nominees are...


*Barbie- Jacqueline Durran
*Killers of the Flower Moon- Jacqueline West
*Napoleon- Janty Yates and David Crossman
*Oppenheimer- Ellen Mirojnick
*Poor Things- Holly Waddington

And the Oscar goes to...


This is one of the toughest picks of the night. Poor Things won the BAFTA and a Costume Designers' Guild Award, as is a dazzling technical feat. Barbie was a behemoth here though, and has been tipped for this category since July (it also won a CDG award). This came down to the wire, but my gut is telling me Barbie. Poor Things is stronger overall, but I just don't know if Barbie has fallen off enough to only score one; i.e. the Star Is Born route. Other little notes: Yorgos Lanthimos's last film, The Favourite, also won the BAFTA, only to lose to the biggest film of it's year (Black Panther), and Barbie costume designer has two already; i.e. she's got her fans. This is also a category where the most colorful costumes win (both Black Panthers, Cruella, Fantastic Beasts, Fury Road, Grand Budapest Hotel to name a few), which is another tip in Barbie's cap.

Power Rankings
1. Barbie
2. Poor Things
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Napoleon
5. Oppenheimer

And the Nominees are...


*Barbie- Sarah Greenwood and Katie Spencer
*Killers of the Flower Moon- Jack Fisk and Adam Willis
*Napoleon- Arthur Max and Elli Griff
*Oppenheimer- Ruth de Jong and Claire Kaufman
*Poor Things- James Price & Shona Heath and Zsuzsa Mihalek

And the Oscar goes to...


Of the do design categories, I think Poor Things has pulled away a bit here. It won the BAFTA and Costume Designer's Guild award, beating Barbie both times. The gothic, steampunk design are consistently eye-popping, and Poor Things has more heat than the Mattel smash. Plus, I think voter's will see Poor Things work as the more original of the two, where as Barbie, strong as it is, is more recreation. Or, Oppenheimer swallows this category, too.

Power Rankings
1. Poor Things
2. Barbie
3. Oppenheimer
4. Napoleon
5. Killers of the Flower Moon

And the Nominees are...

*Jennifer Lame- Oppenheimer
*Yorgos Mavropsaridis- Poor Things
*Laurent Sénéchal- Anatomy of a Fall
*Thelma Schoonmaker- Killers of the Flower Moon
*Kevin Tent- The Holdovers

And the Oscar goes to...


Lame. One of the easiest calls of the night.

And the Nominees are...

*The Creator- Ian Voigt, Erik Aadahl, Ethan Van der Ryn, Tom Ozanich and Dean Zupancic
*Maestro- Steven Morrow, Richard King, Jason Ruder, Tom Ozanich and Dean Zupancic
*Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One- Chris Munro, James H. Mather, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor
*Oppenheimer- Willie D. Burton, Richard King, Gary Rizzo and Kevin O'Connell
*The Zone of Interest- Tarn Willers and Johnnie Burn

And the Oscar goes to...


Oppenheimer will probably hold out and win (it's a juggernaut that won top prizes with the sound mixers and editors guilds), but The Zone of Interest actually has a shot at playing spoiler. It won BAFTA, and the sound has been one of the most praised aspects of the film. Could be a surprise.

Power Rankings
1. Oppenheimer
2. The Zone of Interest
3-5. None of these are winning.

And the Nominees are...


*Golda- Karen Hartley, Suzi Battersby and Ashra Kelly-Blue
*Maestro- Kazu Hiro, Kay Georgiou and Lori McCoy-Bell
*Oppenheimer- Luisa Abel
*Poor Things- Nadia Stacey, Mark Coulier and Josh Weston
*Society of the Snow- Ana López-Puigcerver, David Martí and Montse Ribé

And the Oscar goes to...


Probably Maestro. Poor Things won the BAFTA and has some inspired, often grotesque work, so it's a genuine contender, but this category goes, overwhelmingly, to biopics. For all it's faults, the makeup work in Maestro, particularly the old age work (which may actually be some of the best of all time), is incredible, and I expect voters to see that. Or the Oppy train takes this one, too. Not totally out of the question.

Power Rankings
1. Maestro
2. Poor Things
3. Oppenheimer
4. Golda
5. Society of the Snow

And the Nominees are...


*The Creator- Jay Cooper, Ian Comley, Andrew Roberts and Neil Corbould
*Godzilla Minus One- Takashi Yamazaki, Kiyoko Shibuya, Masaki Takahashi and Tatsuji Nojima
*Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3- Stephane Ceretti, Alexis Wajsbrot, Guy Williams and Theodore Bialek
*Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One- Alex Wuttke, Simone Coco, Jeff Sutherland and Neil Corbould
*Napoleon- Charley Henley, Luc-Ewen Martin-Fenouillet, Simone Coco and Neil Corbould

And the Oscar goes to...


I just threw up my hands and went with The Creator. It could honestly go to any of these, but the A.I. thriller is the only nominee that has shown up everywhere, which gives me a consensus vibe. It won the VES top prize, as well as five overall, and is a technical marvel. Even the people cold on the film (myself included) cannot deny the incredible VFX work. Dead Reckoning, Guardians and Napoleon all scored BAFTA nominations, but feel a bit also-ran.

The latest M:I flick is strong, but some of the effects are a bit blotchy and they never really seem to be a focal point of most of the praise (in a lesser year, it would be a contender in sound). Marvel is never going to win this award, despite typically strong work on Vol. 3. The subtlety of Napoleon's work could win over voters, as that is something that has done well here over the past few years (Ex Machina, First Man, 1917). It's also the most nominated film here, which means it'll likely have more views. It hasn't won anywhere though, including at VES, where it lost in the Supporting VFX category to Nyad. Fuckin' Nyad. If it can't beat Nyad...

That leaves Godzilla Minus One as the big competitor. The movie was a surprise success, and has an underdog vibe that could certainly help it out. It hasn't been a major player in precursors though, and there are some glaring stats that it misses. The winner here has been nominated for BAFTA for the past 24 years; Godzilla did not get a BAFTA nomination. The Oscar winner here, also, is typically nominated for more than one. In fact, only 11 times has a one-nomination film won here, the last being The Jungle Book. It's possible, I'm just not sure it's as beloved by the Academy as it is with the public. We'll see.

Power Rankings
1. The Creator
2. Godzilla Minus One
3. Napoleon
4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
5. Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One