Predicting the Winners of the 2014 Emmys

And the nominees are...



*The Big Bang Theory
*Louie
*Modern Family
*Orange Is the New Black
*Silicon Valley
*Veep

And the Emmy goes to...

**Modern Family**

This is probably my shakiest pick. The category is stronger than it's been in a while. Silicon Valley is the one show that has no shot here. While it's incredibly funny, it barely made it in. The Big Bang Theory is the biggest show on TV, but I think it makes it in mostly as a fan service. Veep had it's best season yet, and received it's most nominations ever, so it definetly has a shot. A lot of people are going with Louie, but I think it's more likely in the creative categories. To me though, if there's one show that could beat Modern Family, it's Orange is the New Black. It got nominations it got nominations in most of the main categories, and will get support from it's recently aired second season. But, I just have a feeling that Family takes it for a fifth straight year, tying Frasier for the most wins ever. Voters don't do well with change.

Spoiler: Orange is the New Black

And the nominees are...



*Breaking Bad
*Downton Abbey
*Game of Thrones
*House of Cards
*Mad Men
*True Detective

And the Emmy goes to...

**Breaking Bad**

I think this one comes down to Breaking Bad and True Detective, with Bad having the slight edge. Voters have been pretty crappy to shows in their final season in the past, but with shows with the momentum that Bad has (i.e. The Sopranos), they usually go with the flow. Detective could definitely win though. It aired more recently than Bad, so it's still fresh, and the quality was definitely there. Other than those two, the field gets a bit more questionable. House of Cards is clearly well liked, but it had a rather divisive second season, and the competition is too tough. Mad Men got it's best reviews in quite some time, but it's an older show, and voters may just wait for next year during it's final outing. If Downton wins, it would be the biggest shocker in quite some time. Game of Thrones probably comes closest to the aforementioned two, but it's still pretty far off.

Spoiler: True Detective

And the nominees are...



*American Horror Story: Coven
*Bonnie & Clyde
*Fargo
*Luther
*Treme
*The White Queen

And the Emmy goes to...

**Fargo**

It's Fargo's to lose. It got 18 total nominations, the second most among nominees.

Spoiler: Nothing, but maybe American Horror Story: Coven

And the nominees are...



*Killing Kennedy
*Muhammad Ali's Greatest Fight
*The Normal Heart
*Sherlock: His Last Vow
*The Trip to Bountiful

And the Emmy goes to...

**The Normal Heart**

This is the biggest lock of the night.

Spoiler: Nothing, but maybe Sherlock: His Last Vow

And the nominees are...



*The Colbert Report
*The Daily Show with Jon Stewart
*Jimmy Kimmel Live!
*Real Time with Bill Maher
*Saturday Night Live
*The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon

And the Emmy goes to...

**The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon**

It seems like The Tonight Show's just got the momentum this year. It's doing great in the ratings, and it's been pretty solid. Previous winners The Daily Show and The Colbert Report are still big, and could easily win. SNL had a rough, and was lucky to make it in at all. Real Time and Jimmy Kimmel Live! seem to be perennial bridesmaids.

Spoiler: The Colbert Report

And the nominees are...



*Louis C.K.- Louie
*Don Cheadle- House of Lies
*Ricky Gervais- Derek
*Matt LeBlanc- Episodes
*William H. Macy- Shameless
*Jim Parsons- The Big Bang Theory


And the Emmy goes to...

**Jim Parsons- The Big Bang Theory**

Forget six, there's really two nominees here, Parsons and C.K.. C.K. is definitely the critic's choice, but voters clearly love Parsons, with this being his possible fourth Emmy. Either could win, but I've got feeling it'll be Parsons.

Spoiler: Louis C.K.- Louie

And the nominees are...



*Lena Dunham- Girls
*Edie Falco- Nurse Jackie
*Julia Louis-Dreyfus- Veep
*Melissa McCarthy- Mike & Molly
*Amy Poeher- Parks & Recreation
*Taylor Schilling- Orange is the New Black

And the Emmy goes to...

**Julia Louis-Dreyfus- Veep**

Louis-Dreyfuss has won the past two years, and with an even more highly received third season, it would surprise me if she lost this year.

Spoiler: Taylor Schilling- Orange is the New Black

And the nominees are...



*Mayim Bialik- The Big Bang Theory
*Julie Bowen- Modern Family
*Anna Chlumsky- Veep
*Allison Janney- Mom
*Kate McKinnon- Saturday Night Live
*Kate Mulgrew- Orange is the New Black

And the Emmy goes to...

**Allison Janney- Mom**

Last year's winner Merritt Wever is gone, and Modern Family is starting to look vulnerable. Janney is an Emmy favorite, she's got four for The West Wing, and with two chances to win this year (Masters of Sex), I think she's the favorite. Mulgrew could ride an Orange love fest to a win though.

Spoiler: Kate Mulgrew- Orange is the New Black

And the nominees are...



*Fred Armisen- Portlandia
*Andre Braugher- Brooklyn Nine-Nine
*Ty Burrell- Modern Family
*Adam Driver- Girls
*Jesse Tyler Ferguson- Modern Family
*Tony Hale- Veep

And the Emmy goes to...

**Andre Braugher- Brooklyn Nine-Nine**

Last year's winner Hale definitely has a shot, but I think this one's has been Braugher's to lose since the Nine-Nine pilot. He's been nominated countless times, but never in comedy, and that type of shake-up is exactly what the voters like.

Spoiler: Tony Hale- Veep

And the nominees are...



*Lizzy Caplan- Masters of Sex
*Claire Danes- Homeland
*Michelle Dockery- Downton Abbey
*Julianna Margulies- The Good Wife
*Kerry Washington- Scandal
*Robin Wright- House of Cards

And the Emmy goes to...

**Robin Wright- House of Cards**

This is one of the more curious categories of the year. Danes has won for the past two years, but with Homeland's support waning, it would be a bit surprising if she won, though not improbable. Scandal's third season was pretty up and down, and that may hurt Washington's chances. Caplan was good enough to make it in, but Masters of Sex failing to attract nominations in most other categories makes me think it won't be her year. With Downton slipping, I don't think Dockery has a shot here. That leaves Margulies and Wright, either of whom could win. The Good Wife had a hell of a season, and Margulies was great. The one thing that gives me pause though, is that The Good Wife didn't make it into the Drama Series category, leading me to believe that voters weren't as enamored with the show as the rest of us. Not the case for Wright, Cards got nominations in almost all major categories. Wright had a great season too, including a moment (turning her rape and abortion into political leverage) that would have easily won in a lesser year. It won't be easy, but I think Wright takes it.

Spoiler: Julianna Margulies- The Good Wife

And the nominees are...



*Bryan Cranston- Breaking Bad
*Jeff Daniels- The Newsroom
*Jon Hamm- Mad Men
*Woody Harrelson- True Detective
*Matthew McConaughey- True Detective
*Kevin Spacey- House of Cards

And the Emmy goes to...

**Matthew McConaughey- True Detective**

For such a stacked category, this really comes down to two guys; Cranston and McConaughey. Both have a great chance of winning (if there was ever a year for a tie), but I think McConaughey has the edge. He's having an all-time great year, have already won numerous awards, including an Oscar, and his performance as Rust Cohle is being hailed as his best.

Spoiler: Bryan Cranston- Breaking Bad

And the nominees are...



*Jim Carter- Downton Abbey
*Josh Charles- The Good Wife
*Peter Dinklage- Game of Thrones
*Mandy Patinkin- Homeland
*Aaron Paul- Breaking Bad
*Jon Voight- Ray Donovan

And the Emmy goes to...

**Aaron Paul- Breaking Bad**

A very tight category with Paul having the edge. While he didn't really have an expansive season, the episode he submitted, "Confessions", features one of his best performance of the series, and he's always been a sentimental pick. Dinklage had a hell of a year too, with his courtroom speeches possibly the best piece of acting of the year. And even had Will Gardener not been offed this season, Charles would have still likely made it in, with his work in "Hitting the Fan" a series best.

Spoiler: Peter Dinklage- Game of Thrones

And the nominees are...



*Christine Baranski- The Good Wife
*Joanne Froggatt- Downton Abbey
*Anna Gunn- Breaking Bad
*Lena Headey- Game of Thrones
*Christina Hendricks- Mad Men
*Maggie Smith- Downton Abbey

And the Emmy goes to...

**Anna Gunn- Breaking Bad**

Gunn seems to be a lock here. She won last year and had even better material this time.

Spoiler: Christine Baranski- The Good Wife

And the nominees are...



*Benedict Cumberbatch- Shelock: His Last Vow
*Chiwetel Ejiofor- Dancing on the Edge
*Idris Elba- Luther
*Martin Freeman- Fargo
*Mark Ruffalo- The Normal Heart
*Billy Bob Thornton- Fargo

And the Emmy goes to...

**Billy Bob Thornton- Fargo**

Thornton looks to be the favorite here. He has the most hype, and Fargo was clearly well liked. Ruffalo has a shot if The Normal Heart really starts winning early.

Spoiler: Mark Ruffalo- The Normal Heart

And the nominees are...



*Helena Bonham Carter- Burton & Taylor
*Minnie Driver- Return to Zero
*Jessica Lange- American Horror Story: Coven
*Sarah Paulson- American Horror Story: Coven
*Cicely Tyson- The Trip to Bountiful
*Kristen Wiig- The Spoils of Babylon

And the Emmy goes to...

**Cicely Tyson- The Trip to Bountiful**

This one's pretty up in the air. I think Tyson will win, she's well liked among voters, and has several nominations under her belt. Either of the American Horror Story women could win though.

Spoiler: Jessica Lange- American Horror Story: Coven

And the nominees are...



*Angela Bassett- American Horror Story: Coven
*Kathy Bates- American Horror Story: Coven
*Ellen Burstyn- Flowers in the Attic
*Frances Conroy- American Horror Story: Coven
*Julia Roberts- The Normal Heart
*Allison Tolman- Fargo

And the Emmy goes to...

**Julia Roberts- The Normal Heart**

This one is really Roberts' to lose. The Miniseries/Movie categories usually tend to award the big stars, and Roberts is the biggest here. It doesn't hurt that the movie she's nominated for is primed to win several. American Horror Story was pretty poorly received this last season, and I think that'll hurt the three ladies nominated here. Burstyn won last year for Political Animals and could definetly surprise here, but I feel she made it in here partly because of a lack of competition. Tolman had her huge break with Fargo with many citing her as the best part. If there's somebody who could beat Roberts, it's her (I think).

Spoiler: Allison Tolman- Fargo

And the nominees are...



*Matt Bomer- The Normal Heart
*Martin Freeman- Sherlock: His Last Vow
*Colin Hanks- Fargo
*Joe Mantello- The Normal Heart
*Alfred Molina- The Normal Heart
*Jim Parsons- The Normal Heart

And the Emmy goes to...

**Matt Bomer- The Normal Heart**

As good as Freeman and Hanks were, I don't think either of them have a chance here against four from The Normal Heart. Bomer lost a lot of weight and had the meatier part, so I think he'll take it.

Spoiler: Martin Freeman- Sherlock: His Last Vow

And the nominees are...



*Uzo Aduba- Orange is the New Black
*Laverne Cox- Orange is the New Black
*Joan Cusack- Shameless
*Tina Fey- Saturday Night Live
*Natasha Lyonne- Orange is the New Black
*Melissa McCarthy- Saturday Night Live

And the Emmy goes to...

**Uzo Aduba- Orange Is the New Black**

Spoiler: Laverne Cox- Orange Is the New Black

And the nominees are...



*Steve Buscemi- Portlandia
*Louis C.K.- Saturday Night Live
*Gary Cole- Veep
*Jimmy Fallon- Saturday Night Live
*Nathan Lane- Modern Family
*Bob Newhart- The Big Bang Theory

And the Emmy goes to...

**Bob Newhart- The Big Bang Theory**

Spoiler: Jimmy Fallon- Saturday Night Live

And the nominees are...



*Dylan Baker- The Good Wife
*Beau Bridges- Masters of Sex
*Reg E. Cathey- House of Cards
*Paul Giamatti- Downton Abbey
*Robert Morse- Mad Men
*Joe Morton- Scandal

And the Emmy goes to...

**Beau Bridges- Masters of Sex**

Spoiler: Robert Morse- Mad Men

And the nominees are...



*Kate Burton- Scandal
*Jane Fonda- The Newsroon
*Allison Janney- Masters of Sex
*Kate Mara- House of Cards
*Margo Martindale- The Americans
*Diana Rigg- Game of Thrones

And the Emmy goes to...

**Allison Janney- Masters of Sex**

Spoiler: Jane Fonda- The Newsroom

And the nominees are...

*Paris Barclay- Glee (Episode:*100*)
*Louis C.K.- Louie (Episode:*Elevator, Part 6*)
*Jodie Foster- Orange is the New Black (Episode:*Lesbian Request Denied*)
*Mike Judge- Silicon Valley (Episode:*Minimum Viable Product*)
*Iain B. McDonald- Episodes (Episode:*Episode Nine*)
*Gail Mancuso- Modern Family (Episode:*Las Vegas*)

And the Emmy goes to...

**Jodie Foster- Orange is the New Black**

I said the same thing last year about David Fincher. When famous people get nominated in technical categories, they usually win.

Spoiler: Louis C.K.- Louie

And the nominees are...

*David Evans- Downton Abbey (Episode:*Episode One*)
*Carl Franklin- House of Cards (Episode:*Chapter 14*)
*Cary Joji Fukunaga- True Detective (Episode:*Who Goes There*)
*Vince Gilligan- Breaking Bad (Episode:*Felina*)
*Neil Marshall- Game of Thrones (Episode:*The Watchers on the Wall*)
*Tim Van Patten- Boardwalk Empire (Episode:*Farewell Daddy Blues*)

And the Emmy goes to...

**Vince Gilligan- Breaking Bad**

Really, this category could go three ways. Fukunaga is nominated for one episode, but he has an advantage considering that he directed every episode. Marshall's "The Watchers on the Wall" was possibly the finest directorial achievement of the year, but the episode from a story level was one of the weakest of the year. I think Gilligan goes out on top, taking his first individual win for Bad.

Spoiler: Cary Joji Fukunaga- True Detective

And the nominees are...

*Adam Bernstein- Fargo (Episode:*The Crocodile's Dilemma*)
*Colin Bucksey- Fargo (Episode:*Buridan's Ass*)
*Stephen Frears- Muhammad Ali's Greatest Fight
*Alfonso Gomez-Rejon- American Horror Story: Coven (Episode:*Bitchcraft*)
*Nick Hurran- Sherlock: His Last Vow
*Ryan Murphy- The Normal Heart

And the nominees are...

*Alec Berg- Silicon Valley (Episode:*Optimal Tip-to-Tip Efficiency*)
*Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci & Tony Roache- Veep (Episode:*Special Relationship*)
*Louis C.K.- Louie (Episode:*So Did the Fat Lady*)
*David Crane & Jeffrey Klarik- Episodes (Episode:*Episode Five*)
*Liz Friedman & Jenji Kohan- Orange is the New Black (Episode:*I Wasn't Ready*)

And the Emmy goes to...

**Louis C.K.- Louie**

Spoiler: Liz Friedman & Jenji Kohan- Orange is the New Black

And the nominees are...

*David Benioff & D.B. Weiss- Game of Thrones (Episode:*The Children*)
*Vince Gilligan- Breaking Bad (Episode:*Felina*)
*Nic Pizzolatto- True Detective (Episode:*The Secret Fate of All Life*)
*Moira Walley-Beckett- Breaking Bad (Episode:*Ozymandias*)
*Beau Willimon- House of Cards (Episode:*Chapter 14*)

And the Emmy goes to...

**Moira Walley-Beckett- Breaking Bad**

Spoiler: Nic Pizzolatto- True Detective

And the nominees are...

*Neil Cross- Luther
*Noah Hawley- Fargo (Episode:*The Crocodile's Dilemma*)
*Larry Kramer- The Normal Heart
*Steven Moffat- Sherlock: His Last Vow
*Ryan Murphy & Brad Falchuk- American Horror Story: Coven (Episode:*Bitchcraft*)
*David Simon & Eric Overmyer- Treme (Episode:*...To Miss New Orleans*)

And the Emmy goes to...

**Noah Hawley- Fargo**

Spoiler: Larry Kramer- The Normal Heart

And the nominees are...

*The Colbert Report
*The Daily Show with Jon Stewart
*Inside Amy Schumer
*Key & Peele
*Portlandia
*The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon

And the Emmy goes to...

**The Colbert Report**

Spoiler: The Daily Show with Jon Stewart