Final 2017 Oscar Predictions

1.

No change. Still the favorite, but not a lock to win. It missed out on an ensemble nod at the SAGs, and no movie has won top prize without one since Braveheart in 1995, the first SAG ceremony. It's still likely to win, but there are other movie's that are getting support from all branches that could really leapfrog.

2.

Locked in, could pull a Spotlight style upset. It's got the love.

3.

A lock for the nomination, but won't likely win. Probably not "safe" enough.

4.

Strong reviews and love from the actor's branch essentially guarantee a nomination.

5.

Arrival has had a very strong awards season, with a bundle of nominations and wins from various groups and guilds. I don't want to get cocky, but it really is looking locked in.

6.

As I expected, Lion has done better than my previous expectations, and is looking pretty strong here. Not a lock, but certainly a probable nominee.

7.

With prominent showings at most major awards bodies, Hell or High Water appears to have struck a chord with it's well-executed and timely story. I could see it missing, but it's looking like it'll be in.

8.

Once an insider, Hacksaw Ridge has had an excellent month, picking nominations everywhere it needs to. It's still likely on the edge of a nomination, but I still see it in.

9.

With PGA, WGA, and SAG noms, as well as slew of other important guild nominations, Hidden Figures has got a lot of momentum. While it could be tough to secure the votes (I have a feeling that the top eight are going to dominate the ballots), 9 nominees feels right for this year, and this looks to be the movie to take the final spot.

Other Possibilities

10.

Despite strong reviews and a legendary director, Silence has gotten no love thus far. Scorsese's last movie The Wolf of Wall Street had similar luck, but even it had a couple of nominations beforehand. It missed at essentially every major guild, outside cinematography, and has very little momentum. It could surprise, but it just seems like a long shot.

11.

After surprise PGA and WGA noms, Deadpool is firmly in the hunt for a Best Picture nomination. While it would be a real surprise to see it make the cut, the credentials that it's got make it impossible to ignore the possibility.

12.

Jackie just hasn't had the awards season that Fox Searchlight was hoping for. While it's getting strong reviews, and is likely the favorite to win a couple of categories, it hasn't shown up anywhere other than the Independent Spirit Awards, which doesn't really instill much confidence (the Spirits can help momentum, but they can't be the only bit). It still could get in, but I think it's on the outside looking in.

13.

Loving did make it in at the Critics' Choice Awards, but missed out completely at the SAGs, and only got made the acting categories at the Globes. As with several above, a PGA bid could certainly help, but I expect this one to have a stronger shot in the acting categories.

14.

Warner Bros. has a hell of a track record here, usually scoring at least one nominee (they were even able to get Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close a few years ago), but Sully really looks to be flying under the radar, and it doesn't really have a great shot in any other category (i.e. you don't get a picture nom and nothing else).

15.

16.

17.

Result: 9/9

1.

Damien Chazelle- La La Land Probably the winner.

2.

Barry Jenkins- MoonlightPotential spoiler.

3.

Kenneth Lonergan- Manchester by the SeaLikely not winning, but it would be shocking if he didn't make the cut.

4.

Denis Villeneuve- ArrivalAs Arrival has risen towards the front of the BP race, so to has Villeneuve's shot at a nomination. While it has a great script, the movie is really a directors movie, with every element having to come together precisely for maximum impact, and I think the voters will recognize that.

5.

Martin Scorsese- SilenceAs I said in the first list, I think that Scorsese is so respected that even if Silence misses the picture cut, and that's looking like a very possible scenario, he could still make the cut. I'm sticking to that.

Other Possibilities

6.

Garth Davis- LionAfter surprise DGA nominations, and Lion's popularity throughout guild nomination season, Davis is near the top of the pack to take the fifth spot. My only qualm is that the DGA and the Oscars rarely go 5-for-5, and not once in this decade. He's certainly a possibility, but I'm just too unsure.

7.

Denzel Washington- FencesWhile actor/directors have had great success here in the past, they've more or less opted for smaller, more artsy options for the last spot. Washington does strong work behind the camera, but Fences is really being looked at more for what's going on on-screen. The degree of difficulty, so to say, isn't as much as it was for the five above.

8.

David Mackenzie- Hell or High WaterHell or High Water has had a surprisingly strong awards-season, and could have the love to push it into one more category. He's something of a longshot, but a Mackenzie nomination really wouldn't be surprising.

9.

Mel Gibson- Hacksaw RidgeHacksaw Ridge has emerged as a likely player in numerous categories, with all of that do to Gibson's direction. Its certainly checks the degree of difficulty box, the action and violence alone do that, but I'm still not sure if the Academy is going to wholeheartedly embrace Gibson after his pass digressions. Then again, they gave this award to Roman Polanski, so maybe they just care about the work.

10.

Tom Ford- Nocturnal Animals

Result: 4/5

1.

Casey Affleck- Manchester By the SeaThe frontrunner.

2.

Denzel Washington- FencesLock.

3.

Ryan Gosling- La La LandLock.

4.

Andrew Garfield- Hacksaw RidgeAfter BAFTA, SAG, BFCA (Critics Choice), and HFPA (Globes) nominations, Garfield looks very likely for his work in Hacksaw. He's not a lock, people with those credentials have missed before (Jake Gyllenhaal for Nightcrawler is one of the biggest that comes to mind), but he's probable.

5.

Joel Edgerton- LovingMissed at the SAGs, and the film isn't having the impact that was expected; Edgerton's chances aren't as shining as they once were. But I'm betting on the true life story winning out, and his respectable work will make the cut.

Other Possibilities

6.

Viggo Mortensen- Captain FantasticI know that I said that if he picked up a SAG nod he'd probably be in, and he likely is, but the SAGs rarely go five-for-five with the Oscars (and, based on my other predictions, definitely not in three categories), and Mortensen seems like the most likely casualty. This is really a guess, so I have no specifics, but I just don't see it.

7.

Tom Hanks- SullyMissed big at the Globes and the SAGs, Hanks chances look fairly slim. Still, he's a liked as they come, and Sully could end up connecting with older male voters the way other Eastwood films have.

8.

Andrew Garfield- SilenceNot likely since Hacksaw Ridge appears to be his dog in this race, but still a possibility.

9.

Ryan Reynolds- DeadpoolA long shot, but he's had some success this awards-season. It also appears that Deadpool has some major fans, with the film surprisingly scoring a WGA nod. It's not gonna happen, but I don't want to say that I didn't see it if it does.

10.

Jake Gyllenhaal- Nocturnal AnimalsSurprise BAFTA nod puts him as a possible spoiler, but it's unlikely.

Result: 4/5

1.

Natalie Portman- JackieNo the frontrunner, but the likeliest to get a nomination.

2.

Emma Stone- La La LandIn.

3.

Amy Adams- ArrivalFinally looking like a lock.

4.

Isabelle Huppert- ElleAfter a surprise upset at the Globes, Huppert is great here. Though the HFPA and the Oscars don't have the same voting base, only twice has the winner of the Globe for Best Actress - Drama missed the cut, with one of those misses tying with two other women that both made it in. These last three spots are close, but the stats are on her side.

5.

Meryl Streep- Florence Foster JenkinsAfter BAFTA, SAG, and HFPA noms, Streep is looking pretty strong right now. It's possible that she misses out to newer performances, ones by breakouts and ones by "due" actresses, but Streep is Streep, and she's more respected than most. Plus, the Cecil B. Demille Award speech went over incredibly well; many will want to reward her for it.

Other Possibilities

6.

Ruth Negga- LovingShe could sneak in, but the momentum has died down exponentially for Negga in the past month. Definitely has a shot though.

7.

Annette Bening- 20th Century Women20th Century Women is flying incredibly under the radar, to the point where I'm just not convince that it'll be able to break through the pack in any major category. Bening once seemed like a lock, but a key miss at the SAGs hints that the movie doesn't have as many fans on its side. She could still definitely make it in, but she's looking more like a longshot now.

8.

Emily Blunt- The Girl on the TrainThe surprise SAG nod definitely puts her in the conversation, but the film's mixed critical success can't do anything but hinder her chances, especially in a category with great performances in well-regarded films.

9.

Jessica Chastain- Miss SloaneGlobe nomination puts her in the hunt, but the movie got mixed reviews and did poorly at the box office. It's possible, but unlikely.

10.

Taraji P. Henson- Hidden FiguresShe's missed out everywhere, but if Hidden Figures does better than expected, she could definitely sneak in.

Result: 4/5

1.

Viola Davis- FencesShe's winning. Probably the strongest acting lock there is.

2.

Michelle Williams- Manchester By the SeaLocked in.

3.

Naomie Harris- MoonlightLock.

4.

Nicole Kidman- LionNot a lock necessarily, but she's made it in everywhere that she needs to. Probably in.

5.

Octavia Spencer- Hidden FiguresAfter a month where she made it in at the Globes and SAGS, Spencer looks like she'll probably be in; this is probably the most firm category this year. These five appear to be the consensus five, but...

Other Possibilities

6.

Janelle Monae- Hidden FiguresCould Monae overtake costar Spencer, or will Hidden Figures ride it's growing momentum for two supporting actress nominations? Possibly, but it looks too tight at the moment.

7.

Greta Gerwig- 20th Century WomenCritics' Choice nod, but nothing since, and the movie's momentum has petered out. Could get in, but it looks like a longshot.

Result: 5/5

1.

Mahershala Ali- MoonlightLost the Globe, but he's still the frontrunner. A win at the SAGs would, and likely will, confirm that.

2.

Jeff Bridges- Hell or High WaterHe's in.

3.

Dev Patel- LionLike his Lion costar, he's showed up everywhere he needs to, and his film looks like a BP nominee. Likely in.

4.

Hugh Grant- Florence Foster JenkinsAfter BAFTA, HFPA, and SAG nominations, Grant seems pretty strong here. It's a crowded category, but he looks pretty solid.

5.

Lucas Hedges- Manchester By the SeaLikely in, but what I said earlier could still pan out. The Academy doesn't really nominate younger guys, so they could leave him out in favor of someone "due". Still, it would be a bit of a surprise to see him not make it.

Other Possibilities

6.

Aaron Taylor-Johnson- Nocturnal AnimalsAfter a huge surprise win at the Globes (likely the biggest this season), Taylor-Johnson is now firmly in the race, with a better shot than even his much-loved costar Shannon. It's been 41 years since a Globe winner didn't make the cut here, but I think that top five is just too strong. I usually go with the stats, but I'm just finding it hard to take any of my five predicted nominees out. I'd suggest you do, but I just can't.

7.

Michael Shannon- Nocturnal AnimalsStill a possibility, but this category looks a bit tough to crack into, especially since his costar Aaron Taylor-Johnson has emerged as a genuine contender. Shannon's performance is a hell of a scene-stealer though, and he's become such a respected presence that I could definitely see him sneak in.

8.

Ben Foster- Hell or High WaterCan he sneak in over his Costar Bridges, or can Hell of High Water sore two nods here? Bridges is pretty much a lock, and there hasn't been two nominees from one film here in 25 years. Could happen, but the stats are against him.

9.

Issey Ogata- SilenceHe's getting the best notices from the Silence cast, and Scorsese films usually do well here. He's certainly a longshot, but a surprise amount of support for the film could catapult him in.

Result: 4/5

1.

Kenneth Lonergan- Manchester by the SeaWith Moonlight being moved to Adapted, Lonergan is the frontrunner here.

2.

Damien Chazelle- La La LandLocked in, and could possibly surprise for the win.

3.

Taylor Sheridan- Hell or High WaterLooks like a lock.

4.

Efthymis Filippou and Giorgos Lanthimos- The LobsterWith this category having been depleted (along with Moonlight, Loving was also moved to adapted), The Lobster looks like a very strong contender here. It's original concept and execution are tailor-made for this category.

5.

Matt Ross- Captain FantasticDespite okay reviews and disappointing box office, Captain Fantastic has hung in the race a lot longer than expected, culminating in a Best Ensemble nomination at the SAGs. While I'd be completely surprised by a BP nod, screenplay has always been the place to recognize well-liked movies not strong enough for other categories.

Other Possibilities

6.

Mike Mills- 20th Century WomenAs I've stated several times already, Women doesn't really have any momentum to speak of. But all it would really take to get here would be a strong, passionate group of fans for the film. It could get it, and is a very strong bet.

7.

Noah Oppenheimer- JackieJackie has had a disappointing awards-season, and Oppenheimer's script was never really that likely a candidate before. With the loss of two major contenders though, it could sneak in.

Result: 4/5

1.

Barry Jenkins and Tarell Alvin McCraney- MoonlightMoving into a category without a clear frontrunner, Moonlight now appears to be the one to beat here.

2.

Eric Heisserer- ArrivalLock.

3.

August Wilson- FencesLock.

4.

Luke Davies- LionLikely in, though the last three spots are a bit tricky.

5.

Tom Ford- Nocturnal AnimalsThe credentials for this don't really matter (a WGA nod, and the only adapted script that made into the Globes field), but like I set earlier, it's the trickiness of the plot. There are four movies fighting it out for the last two spots and, for some reason, my gut is telling me that Animals will make the cut.

Other Possibilities

6.

Allison Schroeder and Theodore Melfi- Hidden FiguresWhile the movie itself is building just the right amount of momentum, I'm not sure that the script is. It got in at the WGAs and the BAFTAs, but it's not against the full competition that it'll be against at the Oscars. If either Lion or Nocturnal Animals love falters, this will be there to take the last spot.

7.

Jeff Nichols- LovingMoved to Adapted, Loving's chances now look pretty slim. It got WGA love, but that was in original, though that love could extend over to him here.

8.

Jay Cocks & Martin Scorsese- Silence

9.

Rhett Reese & Paul Wernick- Deadpool

Result: 4/5

1.

With the shocking dismissal of Elle, The Handmaiden and Neruda, Erdmann is now the runaway favorite to take the category.

2.

Asghar Farhadi's films usually do well here, and The Salesman is another highly respected film. Probably in.

3.

4.

5.

It's poorly reviewed, but Dolan's been snubbed here before. They may see it as a way to make up for that.

Other Possibilities

6.

7.

8.

9.

Result: 4/5

1.

This 7 and a half-hour epic has really gained a lot of momentum, and could be crowned champ here. It would be a real surprise to see it miss.

2.

Probably in, though this is a category that snubs seemingly "sure-things".

3.

4.

5.

Other Possibilities

6.

7.

8.

9.

10.

Result: 3/5

1.

Still the favorite.

2.

Lock.

3.

Lock.

4.

Probably, but not a lock.

5.

A wobbly prospect, but I'm going with the power of Pixar on this one.

Other Possibilities

6.

7.

8.

9.

10.

Result: 4/5

1.

Justin Hurwitz- La La LandGoing to win.

2.

Dustin O’Halloran and Hauschka- LionSeems like a lock at this point.

3.

Nicolas Britell- MoonlightBritell's sweeping, intimate score is likely to make the cut, thanks to likely Moonlight love.

4.

Mica Levi- JackieStill probable, but the film's loss of momentum has put this category into doubt. I think that it still makes it in, but I'm really unsure.

5.

Abel Korzeniowski- Nocturnal AnimalsRanging from modern electronic notes, to classic Hitchcockian sprawl, Korzeniowski's epic score is one that likely has what it takes to attract all takes. I'd bet that it's down to this and Rogue One, another great score, but with Animals' rising momentum, I think it sneaks into a couple of categories this year.

Other Possibilities

6. Michael Giacchino- Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
7. Hans Zimmer, Pharrell Williams and Benjamin Wallfisch- Hidden Figures
8. John Williams- The BFG
9. Alexandre Desplat- Florence Foster Jenkins
10. James Newton Howard- Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Result: 4/5

1.

"City of Stars"- La La LandStill the likely winner.

2.

"Audition (The Fools Who Dream)"- La La LandLock, could win.

3.

"How Far I'll Go"- MoanaLock.

4.

"Drive It Like You Stole It"- Sing StreetSame as what I said before.

5.

"Runnin'"- Hidden FiguresProbably off, but Hidden Figures growing success will likely lend itself to the film branching out into several categories. Plus, Pharrell Williams has some history here (2013, "Happy"), and the film's catchiness will help it.

Other Possibilities

6."Can't Stop the Feeling"- Trolls
7."I'm Still Here"- Miss Sharon Jones
8."Try Everything"- Zootopia
9."The Empty Chair"- Jim: The James Foley Story
10."Never Give Up"- Lion

Result: 3/5

1.

Linus Sandgren- La La LandWinner.

2.

Bradford Young- ArrivalLooks like a lock.

3.

Rodrgigo Prieto- SilenceDespite Silence doing poorly everywhere else, Prieto managed to get an ASC nod. Probably in, though it's no lock.

4.

James Laxton- MoonlightASC nominee of a probable Best Picture nominee. Likely in.

5.

Seamus McGarvey- Nocturnal AnimalsLike I said with score, I think Nocturnal Animals is going to sneak into a couple of technical categories, and McGarvey is a favorite in this department. His crisp photography, mixing with the visual aesthetic for both storylines (cold and sterile in the real world, vibrant for the story world) is one of the film's finest features. A BAFTA and Critic's choice nominee.

Other Possibilities

6.

Stéphane Fontaine- JackieNeeded the ASC nom, didn't get it. It still could sneak in, but I'm not seeing it.

7.

Greig Fraser- LionSurprise ASC nominee, as well as a BAFTA nod. Strong possibility, though I think it's got a little more competition here.

8.

Roger Deakins- Hail, Caesar!

9.

Simon Duggan- Hacksaw Ridge

10.

Giles Nuttgens- Hell or High Water

Result: 4/5

1.

Madeline Fontaine- Jackie

2.

Mary Zophres- La La Land

3.

Colleen Atwood- Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

4.

Consolata Boyle- Florence Foster Jenkins

5.

Renee Ehrlich Kalfus- Hidden Figures

Other Possibilities

6.

Joanna Johnston- Allied

7.

Jacqueline West- Live By Night

8.

Dante Ferretti- Silence

9.

Eimer Ní Mhaoldomhnaigh- Love & Friendship

10.

Albert Wolsky- Rules Don't Apply

Result: 4/5

1.

David Wasco and Sandy Reynolds-Wasco- La La Land

2.

Jean Rabasse and Véronique Melery- Jackie

3.

Stuart Craig, James Hambidge and Anna Pinnock- Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

4.

Dante Ferretti and Francesca Lo Schiavo- Silence

5.

Patrice Vermette, Paul Hotte and André Valade- Arrival

Other Possibilities

6.

Jess Gonchor and Nancy Haigh- Hail, Caesar

7.

Wynn Thomas and Missy Parker- Hidden Figures

8.

Jess Gonchor and Nancy Haigh- Live By Night

9.

Christopher Glass and Amanda Moss Serino- The Jungle Book

10.

Shane Valentino and Meg Everist- Nocturnal Animals

Result: 3/5

1. Tom Cross- La La Land
2. Joi McMillon and Nat Sanders- Moonlight
3. John Gilbert- Hacksaw Ridge
4. Joe Walker- Arrival
5. Jennifer Lame- Manchester By the Sea

Other Possibilities
6. Jake Roberts- Hell or High Water
7. Thelma Schoonmaker- Silence
8. Blu Murray- Sully
9. Joan Sobel- Nocturnal Animals

Result: 4/5

1. Hacksaw Ridge
2. La La Land
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
4. Arrival
5. The Jungle Book

Other Possibilities
6. Deepwater Horizon
7. Silence
8. Sully
9. Patriots Day
10. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Result: 4/5

1. La La Land
2. Hacksaw Ridge
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
4. Arrival
5. The Jungle Book

Other Possibilities
6. Deepwater Horizon
7. Silence
8. Sully
9. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
10. Patriots Day

Result: 3/5

1.

Florence Foster JenkinsAfter the category was pretty wiped out (Jackie and Silence both out), I'd bet the requisite "mainly-hairstyling" nominee will likely be Florence Foster Jenkins.

2.

Star Trek BeyondShowy, sci-fi makeup usually does well here (Mad Max: Fury Road, Guardians of the Galaxy, The Lone Ranger, The Hobbit, Star Trek (2009), etc.) and Star Trek would appear to be this year's.

3.

DeadpoolAfter it's surprise surge with Guild awards, I'd say that Makeup is it's best possibility.

Other Possibilities

4.

A Man Called OveSame team behind last year's surprise nominee here, The 100 Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared. Could be a real spoiler.

5.

Suicide SquadPoorly reviewed movies have done surprisingly well here over the years; can one more join the humble ranks of The Lone Ranger or The Wolfman? Probably not, but we'll see.

6.

Hail, Caesar!

7.

The Dressmaker

Result: 1/3

1.

The Jungle BookLock. Probable winner.

2.

Doctor Strange
Lock.

3.

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Lock.

4.

Arrival
Seems safe.

5.

Captain America: Civil WarMy wildcard here; Marvel has a solid track record here, including dual nominations a couple of years ago. I'm guessing that that scenario happens here again.

Other Possibilities

6.

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find ThemDespite a few nods, the Harry Potter franchise was not particularly great in the visual effects category, with only three of the eight films getting nominated. It's a close call, but I'm guessing that it's out.

7.

Kubo and the Two String

8.

Passengers

9.

Deepwater Horizon

10.

The BFG

Result: 3/5