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Best Picture
143
7.4
7.5
The Fabelmans (2022)
1.
#1-7 are stone cold locks, with #1 and #2 being your likely winners.2.
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It's missed a lot this season, but the PGA nomination was a strong indicator of support. This is also the kind big, bold leap in cinema that inspires a lot of passion; James Cameron's specialty. Not a lock, but it feels strongly possible.9.
It feels like there are three or four films battling it out for the last two spots. Somehow, The Whale feels the safest. It's got a, if not "the", best actor frontrunner, is doing well in limited release, and seems to be connecting with voters. Two SAG nominations, a likely screenplay nomination lock (adapted screenplay is rough this year) and, more importantly, a PGA nomination. If that guild can get behind such a small film, especially when it also nominated four blockbuster sequels, then that shows a lot of passion.10.
It's Babylon, Triangle of Sadness or Women Talking for 10th, and the image above already tells you where I'm at. Sarah Polley's searing drama has had a fairly rough season, going from a seeming lock to a longshot, at best. The good news for it is, there doesn't seem to be a consensus at #10, and the films also in contention don't have the broad critical support that it does. It also got a lifeline nomination at SAG, and is still likely getting in for adapted screenplay (if not winning it). It's really, really close, but I'm going down with the Women Talking ship.
Other Possibilities
11.
Babylon has a lot of passion behind it, and is likely scoring a few below-the-line nominations (and maybe a few wins), but it's financial woes have overtaken the narrative, and the fact that it's missed some very easy nominations (this kind of big, splashy Hollywood story should be getting a PGA nomination; it did not) doesn't inspire confidence. Still, it's got a solid shot. It is likely to net three or four nominations, and SAG gave it an ensemble nod, so it's still on the radar.12.
Not a broad consensus pick, but it's got passionate fans. It's also a surprise player in a few categories, ones that often go hand-in-hand with BP nominees. Is it too small though? Too niche? Too abrasive? I think it just misses, not big enough in a year like this. If it had picked up any guild support, I'd call it. 13.
It's got an acting frontrunner and a surprise PGA nod, but there's not much heat coming off of this one. PGA wanted some blockbuster players, and went with four sequel; Oscars typically go smaller, and there are already a few bigger blockbusters that have more critical and commercial heft. If it got in at SAG, I could see it. As is, I doubt it.14.
PGA nod, but it's underperformed all season. Maybe if Netflix kept in theaters longer...15.
Does it have the juice? Maybe. I just don't feel it. It's momentum peaked months ago, and All Quiet's taken a lot of the International momentum.
BradWesley123's rating:
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Best Director
159
7.5
7.8
1.
Lock.2.
Don't buy into the post-BAFTA fretting. Spielberg is in. If he's not, then maybe we've lost the thread.3.
He's been everywhere this year, and seems to be a favorite of both populist voters and more niche ones. Seems pretty safe.4.
He could get snubbed again, but this race is a much different beast than 2017. First, the competition isn't as strong; he got snubbed in a category with P.T. Anderson, Guillermo del Toro, Greta Gerwig, Christopher Nolan and Jordan Peele, each with some of the most acclaimed films of their careers. Second, Banshees is much different than Three Billboards. While both were acclaimed, with broad support, Banshees represents a major step up in his abilities as a visual director. Billboards is well-directed film, but it always feels like it's more in service of it's script; Banshees feels like a proper marriage between storytelling and filmmaking. There are a lot of possibilities here, but my gut says that McDonagh gets his first directing nomination.5.
The fifth spot has a lot of potential nominees. Kosinski got the DGA nod, which is a strong precursor to have, but assuming that the directors above are safe (and I do), then you have to drop him, because DGA has only correlated with the Oscars 5/5 four times (77, 81, 98, 09). It's entirely possible that it happens this year, but the knock against Kosinski is a persistent one; how much of this thing did Tom Cruise shadow direct. It's a reductive criticism, but one that I think will prevail.Luhrmann's Elvis is a bona fide smash, with a high ceiling come nomination morning. It's also a film with a clear directorial eye. Throw in the fact that he's never been nominated here (they snubbed him for Moulin Rouge), and you've got a potential surprise. He just never showed up at any of the precursors that matter, despite the film's apparent love. DGA would've been a strong indicator, but he missed, and the film did great at BAFTA, but he was snubbed again. He's possible, but unlikely, to me.
Cameron's possible, but Avatar just doesn't seem to have that big of a fan base in the industry this year (he's scored no guild noms). Unfortunately, it's looking like this will be a woman-less field this year. Sarah Polley was seen as a favorite but, despite my prediction that Women Talking gets the BP nod, her chances here feel DOA. Prince-Blythwood did score a BAFTA nomination, but it was likely a juried selection, and The Woman King just never scored all that well (it should've been a contender at PGA and/or SAG; it was not).
That takes us the the foreign language film crop, where there has been at least one nominee from for the past four years. RRR is loved by many, and it's an epic that this branch loves, so Rajamouli has a legit shot, but it's never caught much heat this year outside of Song (India submitted another film for International film). Chan-wook got a BAFTA nod, but it was likely juried and Decision to Leave hasn't garnered much broad appeal outside of International Feature. All Quiet on the Western Front, however, has become a major player, and Berger's brutal, unflinching vision is key to that. While he's not a major name here, especially compared to the other major contenders here, I think his work will appeal to both the auteur, niche loving voters, and broad, quality devoted voters.
Other Possibilities
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Best Actress
21
8.1
7.2
Till (2022)
1.
Probably the winner.2.
Lock.3.
She was a bit on the fringe, but the SAG nom was enough to convince me. It's a gutting performance, with a subject matter (historical tragedy) that always goes over well. Probably in.4.
The SAG miss was a shocker, and the BAFTA snub was too, but it'd be even more of a shock she were to miss the Oscar nom. SAG and BAFTA rarely go 5/5 with Oscar. The former has 6/28, with the last being 13 years ago, while the latter has only once since going to a five+ nominee pool (even before, getting 4/5 was a tough ask).Several people are blinking, throwing her in their supporting predictions. I don't buy it. Fabelmans is a major contender, and her performance has a lot to do with that. I expect to see her here.5.
When in doubt, go with Viola. Davis and De Armas are, likely, the strongest contenders for the fifth spot, with the Blonde star scoring surprise BAFTA and SAG nomination (over Williams, no less). Her film is, however, an exceedingly divisive film, with few other possible showings here (it got on the makeup shortlist, so it's not entirely dormant), and Davis is in a more broadly accessible film and, more importantly, is an exceedingly beloved and respected member in the entertainment community. It's a tough spot with a few other possibilities, but Davis feels safest.Other Possibilities
6.
She's playing a legendary figure; still a major threat.7.
If the movie was in a stronger position she'd be in, but the film has fallen off and she's missed some easy precursors. Still possible, but doesn't feel like it.8.
I really don't expect Riseborough to stun here, but it would be negligent to not consider the possibility. Through some staggering campaigning on the part of dozens of celebrities (Cate Blanchett, Kate Winslett, Charlize Theron, Edward Norton, to name a few), she's been propelled into the conversation. Still a longshot (the seven women above are in much stronger, more widely seen films), but it would certainly be incredible to see something so unprecedented.9.
The film has fallen off completely, but Colman is beloved and could score big with British voters.
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Best Actor
217
7.3
7.7
The Whale (2022)
1.
After the surprise Critics' Choice win, as well as broad guild support (it getting multiple SAG nods was a major boost, but the PGA nomination is the clearest sign of strength), and the actor's comeback narrative, it's starting to looking like he's the favorite once again. Clear lock.2.
Locked for a nomination, and could easily win.3.
Lock. Could still win.4.
Not a lock, but pretty safe. It's a chance to honor a renowned character actor, the film's been well-received, and British voters should really take to Nighy. He could miss if that national allegiance were to shift to another contender, but it seems unlikely.5.
It's probably down to Cruise and Mescal. Sandler got the SAG fifth spot, but that feels like a fluke/"sorry we didn't call you for Uncut Gems", Calva could a more international vote (Latinx actors have been nominated here two of the past three years) but Babylon's tracking down, Pope or LaBelle are probably seen as too young (will have more opportunities). Mescal's gonna get a big push from the Brits, and the more austere, art-house crowds, while Cruise is probably going to garner some broad support (Maverick is a major contender). Cruise has detractors though, and this isn't a traditional "Oscar" performance. Mescal by a hair.Other Possibilities
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This one's more about covering the bases. I don't think it'll happen, but this is a thinner field than usual, and Otto is a populist crowdpleaser with another well-recieved lead performance from Hanks. Be surprised if he gets in, but don't be stunned.
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Best Supporting Actor
377
7.4
7.8
1.
Maybe the only true lock this year. Quan's winning.2.
Lock for a nomination.3.
He's been nominated everywhere he needs to, and Banshees has heat. Only #1 and #2 are locks, but Keoghan feels solid.4.
The SAG nomination was enough to make me feel confident about Dano's chances. It's not a showy performance, but his warm and quietly devastating performance as the title family's patriarch is one of the keys to it's success, and one of the few standouts in this frenzied category. 5.
I'm throwing up my hands here. I hate going with SAG's five (it's very rare for them to match up 5/5), but I just don't feel confident about any spoilers here. Hirsch and Henry would keep in the tradition of Critics' Choice surprises, but Causeway has no traction, and I'm just not sure if The Fabelmans has enough power to get two nominees here. Albrecht Schuch scored a surprise BAFTA nod, but I'm just not confident about him, either. Redmayne's not beloved here, but he gets nominated.Other Possibilities
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BradWesley123's rating:
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Best Supporting Actress
204
7.8
7.7
The Banshees of Inisherin (2022)
1.
Bassett is the likelier winner at the moment, but the UK vote makes her the safest nomination lock.2.
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Looks like a lock, a legacy nomination, but the potential for snub looms at every turn. Probably in though.4.
It's been somewhat insane how wobbly Hsu's chances are here. She's giving a breakout, emotionally complex performance in a clear favorite, but she's only showed up at SAG and Critics' Choice thus far. There are two spots for three women here; Hsu, Chau and De Leon. Chau and Hsu scored SAG nominations, while Chau and De Leon got in at BAFTA. BAFTA predicted the three women above, who all seem safe, but they've never gone 5/5; i.e. I see Chau or De Leon missing. Weirdly, Hsu's snub at BAFTA makes me feel a bit safer here. By my reasoning here, she misses or Chau, but Chau got BAFTA; i.e. she's my snub, despite The Whale coming on. They could just go 5/5 with SAG, which is rare but more likely than BAFTA (5 out of 29 times, the last being 2011). I don't know.5.
Other Possibilities
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A critics' favorite that has a slim shot.8.
The Women Talking women really cancel each other out. Buckley is the most likely, though still a longshot.9.
Critics' choice nominee, but the film's lost heat, and this category's stack. Slim shot.10.
I highly doubt that she gets in supporting, but it's not impossible.
BradWesley123's rating:
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Best Original Screenplay
132
7.2
7.4
Tár (2022)
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#1-#4 feels as close to safe you can get (Banshees and EEAAO are guarantees; Fabelmans is solid; Tár's been seen more as a directorial effort, but Field's script is hard to deny), with this fifth spot completely in the air. There are a few contenders, though consensus has formed around Aftersun and Triangle of Sadness being the main ones. Aftersun is the more critically acclaimed of the bunch, with a surefire acting contender, but Triangle is the louder, more writerly of the two, and the former is seen as more of a directorial achievement. Both could get in, but I'm leaning towards Triangle of Sadness.Other Possibilities
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Possible, but the film's downward trajectory makes it unlikely.8.
Possible. The film was made decent money, and was critically acclaimed. Hasn't shown up anywhere else though, so it'd need a push that I'm not sure it's going to get.9.
10.
BradWesley123's rating:
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Best Adapted Screenplay
284
6.9
7.2
1.
As it's claim to a BP nomination has grown stronger, so too has it's chances elsewhere. I doubt it wins, but the fact that the film seems like the likeliest BP nom here make's it the safest nominee.2.
It's been a rough season for Polley's flick, and she's been snubbed numerous times (including a baffling BAFTA omission). I would still be stunned to see her miss out her and, even now, consider her the likeliest winner of the bunch.3.
As the film has ascended to a potential BP nominee, so too has the script in an otherwise slim adapted field. Not a lock (none of this scripts are, to be perfectly honest), but probably in.4.
Probably in, though the BAFTA snub is mildly concerning (especially in such a thin field). The PGA nod keeps this one in play for me, though; it's got broad support. 5.
This last spot is, to me, down to Living and She Said, with a possible Quiet Girl surprise. None of them have that much heat, (The Quiet Girl could score for International film), but Living have a likely acting nominee sends it over the edge for me (She Said has Mulligan, but she doesn't feel that likely). Other Possibilities
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It's got the juice; it's possible.9.
BradWesley123's rating:
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Best Documentary Feature
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Best Animated Feature
224
7.6
7.8
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (2022)
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Other Possibilities
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BradWesley123's rating:
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Best International Feature
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Best Original Song
77
7.4
7.9
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Best Original Score
71
6.3
6.9
Women Talking (2022)
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He was snubbed by First Man after winning the Globe, but Babylon's music is much less experimental than that film. Most likely the favorite.
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Do not buy into the post-BAFTA paranoia; the academy is not snubbing John fuckin' Williams.
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I feel like a bum taking Women Talking. I drone on about stats some much but ignoring them here, picking the Globes five nominees. Since 1970, when the Oscars separate their music awards between score and song score, never have they correlated 5/5. BAFTA swapped Fabelmans and Women Talking for All Quiet on the Western Front and Everything Everywhere All at Once. Fabelmans isn't missing, so Guðnadóttir is probably the wobbliest, most likely to All Quiet, or possibly The Woman King (Terence Blanchard has scored two nominations in the past five years). I feel like if EEAAO was a legit player here, it would've popped already. I'm still taking Women Talking though, because Guðnadóttir is previous winner, has two notable scores this year (she was ineligible for Tár, though she still won a Critics' Choice Award for it), is the only woman in contention (it can't not be a factor to some voters), and some lingering love for a film that's had a rough season (maybe a last ditch effort on some of the fans parts). It's a very close one, though.
Other Possibilities
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BradWesley123's rating:
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Best Cinematography
470
7.1
7.8
The Batman (2022)
1.
Feels like a winner this year.2.
Not a lock, but the film's ascension into the upper-echelon of BP contenders places it firmly in the likely category. Friend's camera brilliantly illustrates the terror of war, and war films have a decent history here.3.
A surprise contender at ASC, then followed it up with a BAFTA nod too. The film's status as major contender should propel it into this category, making Walker only the second woman to ever be nominated here.4.
After being a seeming lockshot for months, Fraser's knockout work scored at ASC and BAFTA, where the film itself performed quiet well. 5.
I'm pulling a true chump move and snubbing Roger Deakins, a man tied for the third-most nominations ever in this category (15, with two wins). With that said, this is possibly the strongest that this category has been in years, with genuine variety amongst the guilds and major voting bodies. ASC took #1, #3 and #4, along with Bardo and Empire of Light, while BAFTA took all of the top four and Deakins. While it'd be simplistic to call Bardo's nom a fluke, Darius Khondji's much more popular among DP's than Oscar voters, with three at ASC and only one for Oscar (Bardo, Evita and Seven at ASC, only Evita for Oscar). Add to the fact that the film really hasn't factored in too much, and I just don't see an overlap.
Regarding Deakins; it's typically strong work, but Empire of Light has had so little heat all season, that I just think this is the one that misses for him. Even his other single-film nominations, The Man Who Wasn't There and Prisoners, had some other possible nomination and more heat (he won ASC for Man). Comparatively, The Fabelmans has. Kaminski is another favorite here, with seven nomination and two wins, including a nod for last year's West Side Story, work that ASC and BAFTA snubbed him for. Also of note is the Spielberg factor; 12 nominations for his films, three wins. I think the story of his young life will warrant some respect votes, and the image above clearly illustrating that this is, also, a very well-shot film.
Other Possibilities
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First one won, but sequels don't do all that well here if the first one scored (The Dark Knight notwithstanding). Plus, the VFX element has garnered some derision; voters want in-camera work. 8.
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BradWesley123's rating:
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Best Production Design
502
6.7
7.6
1.
Not sure about a winner yet, but Babylon's recreation of Old Hollywood decadence has to be the frontrunner.2.
The costume/production design combo has always been a strong one for Luhrmann joints. Elvis will continue that.3.
After #1 and #2, there are a lot of possibilities. Of the bunch, All Quiet feels like the safest. War films do well here, and the brutal, muddy WWI architecture is vividly captured here. It's got all of the precursor love, and the movie is surging. Might even be a spoiler for the win.4.
After those three, there are about five or six films looking to fill two spots. At four, it's a tale of two sequels, Avatar and Black Panther. Both are high-profile sequels to winning films, big spectacles with great designs. Trouble is, sequels to winning films, much like costumes, rarely get in here. A better rate than costumes, happening three times (Empire Strikes Back, Godfather, Part III, Return of the Jedi), it's still a rarity. This puts The Way of Water and Wakanda Forever at a disadvantage, despite their high ranking on prediction websites. The general thinking for voters would be something along the lines of, "been there, done that". I think that hurts Wakanda Forever more than Way of Water. Cameron directed eight films prior to his most recent, four of them receiving production design noms, with two wins (Avatar and Titanic). I think Way of Water's designs are different enough, from the new villages to the lush beauty of the ocean, that it'll be able to overcome the staleness that might set in otherwise with a nomination. Wakanda Forever has to contend with not much differentiation from the original (it's still strong work but, outside Namor's kingdom, there's not much new here), and a win just four years ago. I think it misses, and Cameron's latest scores.
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The Batman and Pinocchio were surprise inclusions at the BAFTAs, but I'm not too sure. The DC legend's films actually have a history here, with 89's Batman winning and The Dark Knight scoring a nomination. I just think the work in this one is a little too subtle, a little to grimy for academy taste. Would love to be wrong. Guillermo del Toro films also fare pretty well here (two winners, three nominations), but I just don't think they'll take a stop-motion animated film over the larger, more lifelike sets of other films. If you take them out, as well as Wakanda Forever, that more or less leaves Everything Everywhere All at Once and The Fabelmans (if Top Gun sneaks in here, it might just win Picture). EEAAO has a lot of passion and some interesting sets, Spielberg films have such a strong history here with 12 nominations and three wins (including for another collaboration with Rick Carter, 2012's Lincoln; Carter also won for Avatar), and it's subtle, period detail that can often do well here. It's always a safe bet banking on history over fantasy here.
Other Possibilities
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BradWesley123's rating:
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Best Costume Design
66
6.7
6.9
The Woman King (2022)
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Not sure it's the winner, but Martin's a two-time winner with another period biopic extravaganza. Lock.2.
Should be a lock. While the costumes here are not as lush as some movies from this era, Zophres is well-liked and she's scored nominations at every major precursor. Safe.3.
BAFTA and CDG nominations. Beavan has won three times, off of 11 nominations, including last year (Cruella). After being on the outside for a while, I feel relatively confident about her nomination here. It's a movie about fashion, for Christ's sake!4.
Here's where things get a bit wobbly. Carter is probably in, the work is strong and she's a well-liked previous winner, but I'm not sold that she's locked in. Sequels scoring nominations here are exceedingly rare, especially if the previous film was a winner (it's never happened, actually; likely the thought that the designer already got their award, wanting to spread the wealth). I was tempted, truly, to drop it, but Wakanda Forever is still a solid player, the new designs are still strong, and this category is lighter than it usually is. I don't see it winning, though.5.
This is a very close one. African/African-American designs/films have, historically, done somewhat well here; Black Panther, Coming to America, Harlem Nights, Malcolm X, to name a few. Does Wakanda Forever takes it's heat, or vise versa? Could they cancel each other out? If so, who gets in? All Quiet got the BAFTA nod, but seems unlikely to repeat (solid work, but war films don't do particularly well). They also took Amsterdam, which might actually have some heat. The movie wasn't all that well-received, but the craft work is undeniable, and having a legend like Albert Wolsky doing costumes (with J.R. Hawbaker); Wolsky has seven nominations and two wins (All That Jazz and Bugsy). It's a close call, but I think the "prettier", more vibrant work in Woman King will be what sticks out. Also, The Woman King has been a semi-player all year, while Amsterdam spent most of the past few months as a Twitter punchline. Other Possibilities
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Entirely possible, but this is one of the few categories where this film hasn't had much heat. CDG nomination is solid, but I think it needed BAFTA too. It's great work, but I think it gets left out for more traditional work.8.
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Great work, but it really needed that BAFTA spot they gave All Quiet.10.
Pretty boss sweaters. Could score a surprise if the film does well.
BradWesley123's rating:
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Best Film Editing
344
7.5
8.4
1. Paul Rogers- Everything Everywhere All at Once
2. Eddie Hamilton- Top Gun: Maverick
3. Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond- Elvis
4. Sven Budelmann- All Quiet on the Western Front
5. Mikkel E. G. Nielsen- The Banshees of Inisherin
Other Possibilities
6. Stephen Rivkin, David Brenner, John Refoua and James Cameron- Avatar: The Way of Water
7. Michael Kahn and Sarah Brosher- The Fabelmans
8. Tom Cross- Babylon
9. Monika Willi- Tár
10. Bob Ducsay- Glass Onion
2. Eddie Hamilton- Top Gun: Maverick
3. Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond- Elvis
4. Sven Budelmann- All Quiet on the Western Front
5. Mikkel E. G. Nielsen- The Banshees of Inisherin
6. Stephen Rivkin, David Brenner, John Refoua and James Cameron- Avatar: The Way of Water
7. Michael Kahn and Sarah Brosher- The Fabelmans
8. Tom Cross- Babylon
9. Monika Willi- Tár
10. Bob Ducsay- Glass Onion
BradWesley123's rating:
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Best Sound
187
6.6
7.3
1. Top Gun: Maverick
2. Avatar: The Way of Water
3. Elvis
4. All Quiet on the Western Front
5. Everything Everywhere All at Once
Other Possibilities
6. The Batman
7. Babylon
8. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
9. Moonage Daydream
10. Pinocchio
2. Avatar: The Way of Water
3. Elvis
4. All Quiet on the Western Front
5. Everything Everywhere All at Once
6. The Batman
7. Babylon
8. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
9. Moonage Daydream
10. Pinocchio
BradWesley123's rating:
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Best Makeup and Hairstyling
121
6.1
5.9
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Lock.2.
Lock.3.
After #1 and #2, things getting a bit dicier. The Batman feels the safest of the bunch, it's got the proper mix of prosthetics and makeup (big and subtle) that do well here.4.
After the top three, things get a bit wild. We've got another biopic, another comic book movie, an old Hollywood period piece, two films dealing with WWI and it's fallout, a slavery epic, and a Cronenberg shocker. While Amersterdam has the starrier lineup, All Quiet on the Western Front is a legit player this year. I think it takes a spot, a la 1917 a few years back.5.
There's gotta be one of pure invention, right? You've got all of these biopics, all of these historical stories, clear-cut aims (obesity, wounds, etc.), but none are from the ground up "new". Crimes has that. Cronenberg's had a winner here before, and another shortlisted (A History of Violence in 2005), so he's got a fan base. Now, with five spots instead of three, I think grotesqueness on display in his film will have room to breathe. It also helps that I'm not sure many of the other films have much heat. Western Front should eat into Amsterdam's votes, and that film doesn't have much love. If the first one couldn't get in, I'm not entirely sure that Wakanda Forever will score, especially considering there was not much new; Marvel's only had one nominee here, too (Guardians). Old Hollywood has, surprisingly, not fared well here, either (outside of biopics), so I'm not sure Babylon will make it. If Blonde was more prosthetic-based, it'd be in. As is, it's solid work that doesn't feel "big" enough to score here.Other Possibilities
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Best Visual Effects
51
7.8
7.8
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Winner.2.
Despite hyping the practical effects, there was a lot of VFX work in Maverick. It's a big-time contender in a wonky field, i.e. it should be in.3.
After the top two, there doesn't seem to be much consensus. Fantastic Beasts, Jurassic World, The Batman and Thirteen Lives scored VES nominations, with World and Lives having, reportedly, great showings in the Academy "bake-off". That said, the Caped Crusader's recent outing seems the safest. It has strong, subtle work, and the film itself is the only one that has a chance of scoring nominations elsewhere (not to say anything about it's solid showings from guilds).4.
Most have Black Panther and/or Doctor Strange scoring nominations here. The original Strange almost won this prize, and Wakanda Forever improves upon it's snubbed predecessor dramatically. So, why am I predicting snubs? Both whiffed with the visual effects society (Wakanda Forever got one, not for the top prize, while Strange missed entirely, and Marvel is embroiled in criticism regarding their treatment of visual effects artists (not paying, overwork causing nervous breakdowns). I think the effect branch will give a rebuke to that conduct this year. Of what's left, I weirdly feel most confident about Thirteen Lives. It's incredibly subtle work that goes mostly unnoticed (watch this video to see), i.e. great work. Could be a surprise here.5.
I just can't see Jurassic World getting nominated. I know it did well at the bake-off and scored the VES nom, but it's been 25 years since a Jurassic flick scored here, including neither of the preceding World flicks (in arguably easier years), and this is a category that's been tracking smaller, more subtle for the past few years. Beasts got a VES nomination, but so did the first one, and it missed (in an easier year). Nope seems beloved by fans, but hasn't shown up anywhere. With that in mind, I think All Quiet is in. It's a real contender, war films have done well here recently (think, again, 1917), and it seems broadly loved. Gut pick.Other Possibilities
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9.
10.
The Banshees of Inisherin: 9
Everything Everywhere All at Once: 9
Elvis: 8
The Fabelmans: 8
Top Gun: Maverick: 6
Avatar: The Way of Water: 4
Tár; 4
The Whale: 4
Babylon: 3
The Batman: 3
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever: 3
Women Talking: 3
Living: 2
Pinocchio: 2
Till: 2
Triangle of Sadness: 2
The Woman King: 2
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