2022 Emmy Nominations Predictions

1.

Less a sure-fire winner than last year, Lasso should still, easily, score a nomination.

2.

With another well-received season, Hacks is locked in, and could even contend for the prize.

3.

Lock, though probably too dramatic to win.

4.

Doesn't have the heat that it has had in previous seasons, Mrs. Maisel should still crack the top eight.

5.

Safest bet of the newcomers. PGA, SAG, WGA nominations, comedy legend leads, and a new season playing during voting.

6.

Network's best shot this year, Abbott was a critical and audience hit that has laughs and heart. Probably in.

7.

It wouldn't be a surprise to see Atlanta's divisive third season get passed over. I think it's in, based on critical approval and name recognition, but it's on the ropes. Still, I think it's in.

8.

You need a laugher. A real laugher. The majority of this category hues dramedy, or not "laugh-a-minute" humor, and Shadows would be the necessary goofball player. Curb could, but I don't know how present it is in voters minds.

Other Possibilities

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15.

1.

Can it repeat? Looks probable, but #2's got heat.

2.

Lock. Could win.

3.

Should be safe, though the more muted response to the hit's final season may have a chilling effect on it's overall nomination haul.

4.

Likely not winning, but it would be a stunner if it didn't crack the top five.

5.

Severance seems to have the most heat of the newcomers this year. It's audacious premise and brilliant execution have garnered great reviews and strong audience response. It's always possible that it's snubbed, but it looks like such an across the board hit that it would be a surprise.

6.

It would seem odd that if it's previous two seasons could make the cut, Stranger Things' fourth season would miss. I could see it, though; the longer a series goes on, the more voters look to younger, fresher series. ST4, however, is looking to be one of the most viewed seasons of television in the medium's history, and was able to keep a high level of momentum throughout the voting period. Feels like it'll be in.

7.

This Is Us, Yellowjackets, Yellowstone. Two spots, three shows. Sure, Euphoria has some heat, as does Pachinko, and The Morning Show scored with every major precursor that it needed to, but it's the top three shows that seem to have the heat. I feel most comfortable with This Is Us. It's been here four times before, and this is the series final season; one last time to show it some love. Feels okay.

8.

While Yellowjackets was a great critical hit, Yellowstone was a ratings bonanza, terrible storytelling be damned. More than that, the Paramount Network hit scored major precursor nods from PGA and SAG, as well as myriad of guild nominations. I'm not entirely confident about either, but the western hit feels safest. Don't count out The Morning Show, which also scored major guild nominations, Pachinko, which got brilliant reviews, Euphoria, another zeitgeist hit, Bridgerton, with another hit season, or even Killing Eve, awful season but returning nominee.

Other Possibilities

9.

10.

If the Emmys were at the end of the year, it probably would've been in. Now, it feels as if it's been overtaken by Apple's new series.

11.

Also, likely, cancelled out by both other Appple series, and the success of Squid Game. Are English-language voters willing to go for two Koren-language series (this one also uses Japanese and some English)? I don't think so.

12.

A well received hit, but doesn't have either the breakout quality of the first season, nor that season's easier Drama series competition.

13.

Maybe. It wasn't a critical darling, but it was bold enough that it could sway some voters. I'm just not sure if voters are willing to go for a "teen" series. Prove me wrong.

14.

1.

#1-3 are locks, and will contend for the win.

2.

3.

4.

Seems pretty safe. A hot-button story, with a possible lead acting winner starring, is usually enough to score a slot here. After the top three though, there are a few surprises and snubs possible.

5.

I think both The Staircase and Under the Banner of Heaven are getting in, though I'm not sure which is likelier. I'm leaning towards Banner, though. The story of a religious group with archaic, confining views inflicting their will on the rest of the world has become rather timely. It's also FX's top contender this year, and the network has only missed out on a spot once here in the last decade (Impeachment could stun, but it didn't make any impact last few, and has fallen off considerably).

6.

Probably in. True crime has been served well by this category, and The Staircase was interesting enough. It feels like the response wasn't that ecstatic though, so I wouldn't rule out a surprise here. Station Eleven, another HBO player, did get a strong reaction, and is the kind of critical hit that could sneak in (in the vein of I Will Destroy You or Unorthodox). 1883 could squeak in as well, especially if Yellowstone does well; they could go all in for Taylor Sheridan's Dutton saga. Gaslit is another true story featuring Oscar winners, and depicting an overreaching, corrupt government could work in it's favor (Starz actually has a history of nominations here, unlike other categories). Hell, the ridiculous romp The Offer could scratch on itch for voters wanting to retreat back to shallow, name-drop miniseries of old. Possibilities are here.

Other Possibilities

7.

8.

9.

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11.

12.

1.

Who fuckin' knows here, man? The Survivor is, almost certainly, winning. It'll probably be overhauled next year, with more restrictions for what's eligible, as only a few of these films were actually made to be a "TV Movie". This is what we have now.

2.

3.

4.

5.

Other Possibilities

6.

7.

8.

9.

10.

1.

Jason Sudeikis- Ted LassoDespite the heft of this category, this one is likely to come down to Hader and Sudeikis. Both have won before, Hader twice (consecutively), but Sudeikis is still defending the title, so he's the likelier nominee (by a hair).

2.

Bill Hader- Barry

3.

Martin Short- Only Murders in the BuildingBoth he and Martin seem safe, though Short gets the goofier, showier role, so I'd give him the edge.

4.

Steve Martin- Only Murders in the Building

5.

Anthony Anderson- Black-ishNot a lock, but he's been nominated for the past seven years. This being the series' final season, I expect to see him here one more time.

6.

Nicholas Hoult- The GreatMost have Glover here. He's a winner with two nominations, and creators often get nominated here. I'm just skeptical of Atlanta's chances this year, and Glover was largely absent as a performer this year. Even in the episodes he appeared in, he wasn't the focal point. Few standout moments. After him, there are only a few legit contenders. Cheadle's been here six times before, twice for Black Monday, and he's a beloved presence (he got nominated for a 90-second performance on Falcon and the Winter Soldier last year). I just don't know if there's any care, at all, for Black Monday, in a field as rife with possibilities as this one. I'm taking Hoult, who had another strong season on The Great, in a tricky tonal balancing act. Also, he played dual characters, which is a bonus for voters. It's a standout performance on a series with standout performances.

Other Possibilities

7.

Donald Glover- Atlanta

8.

Don Cheadle- Black Monday

9.

Larry David- Curb Your Enthusiasm

10.

Rhys Darby- Our Flag Means Death

11.

Matt Berry- What We Do in the Shadows

12.

John Cena- Peacemaker

1.

Amanda Seyfried- The DropoutLock.

2.

Margaret Qualley- MaidLock.

3.

Jessica Chastain- Scenes from a MarriageAfter those two, there are a lot of possibilities. Of them, Chastain seems to be the safest bet. She got strong notices, and she's coming off of an Oscar.

4.

Julia Garner- Inventing AnnaThe show got mixed reviews, but it was a hit and Garner's performance was well-received. Add her being an Emmy favorite, she's won two and could win another this year, and she's probably in.

5.

Viola Davis- The First LadyShe received pretty lukewarm reviews for this performance but, at the end of the day, she is still Viola Davis, and in a pretty wide open field after the first four, I think her name will stick out.

6.

Julia Roberts- GaslitThere are several contenders for this last spot, but I think Roberts will pull through. While Starz doesn't have a strong record (they've never scored an acting nomination here), Roberts is an Oscar winner in a juicy, period role based on a true story. Historical reevaluations, too, have been in a strong way here recently (American Crime Story, Fosse/Verdon, Mrs. America, etc). To be fair, though, that could also aid several of the other women in contention here, especially James. Most have James in as a safe bet, though I just don't know if Pam & Tommy is going to set the voters passions ablaze. While "trashy" is too harsh, too derogatory a word for the series, I could see voters seeing it that way. They like the "dignified" biopic more than the boisterous, which I think will hinder the series across the board. I do think she has the show's best chance of scoring a nomination, but I worry about the aforementioned luridness as well as whether or not voters see her work as too makeup heavy (they always love the transformations, but this would be some of the most expansive makeup ever seen in this category). With that in mind, I think Roberts squeaks in.

Other Possibilities

7.

Lily James- Pam & Tommy

8.

Michelle Pfeiffer- The First Lady

9.

Gillian Anderson- The First Lady

10.

Anne Hathaway- WeCrashed

11.

Toni Collette- The Staircase

12.

Claire Foy- A Very British Scandal

1.

Jeremy Strong- SuccessionCan he win again? Maybe. He's getting nominated.

2.

Brian Cox- SuccessionLock.

3.

Lee Jung-jae- Squid GameSAG winner. Locked in, and could be a very strong contender.

4.

Jason Bateman- OzarkShould score a nomination for the series' final season. That said, the season's cooler than usual reception, including minimal cultural footprint, could lead to some surprising snubs. Probably in though.

5.

Bob Odenkirk- Better Call SaulA lock, in theory; Odenkirk was snubbed for Saul's last season, and he didn't have the big "EMMY" moment in the final season's first half. This is a thinner race than two years ago though, and I think the narrative surrounding his work (the show's final stretch, as well as his heart attack filming) will propel him in.

6.

Sterling K. Brown- This Is UsThere are a few potential curveballs, but I see this last spot coming down to Brown, Costner and Scott. Brown has been here for every season of This Is Us, and the being the last season makes it easier to see him getting a goodbye kiss. That said, Severance is a hot new show, and Apple's big contender, and Scott got some of the best notices of his career. If he gets in, he could contend. While I'm just not sold on Yellowstone's chances, Costner could easily get in if the series has love; it's a weaker field, prone to momentum. It just feels too lazy to me though; even if you love the series fourth season, which few admittedly did (it's pretty crazy comparing the awards season fire with the tepidness of the season), Costner isn't exactly stretching. Brown feels safest, though either contender could.

Other Possibilities

7.

Adam Scott- Severance

8.

Kevin Costner- Yellowstone

1.

Jean Smart- HacksAlmost certainly winning again.

2.

Rachel Brosnahan- The Marvelous Mrs. MaiselShe's back after a few years. The should could under-perform, but I don't see her missing.

3.

Quinta Brunson- Abbott ElementaryCreator/star of a new likely nominee; in.

4.

Kaley Cuoco- The Flight AttendantSeveral returning contenders and newcomers could knock her out, but I think that, despite my reservations about the show's chances overall, Cuoco's strong work will get her another nod. It's a hard year, but Cuoco's the most immediate returning contender, having had heat last year. Others are either returning after years out, with less impactful seasons, and uncertain newcomers.

5.

Sarah Lancashire- JuliaFeels like a wildcard that could gain some heat, Lancashire's got HBO backing and a famous, real-life subject in Julia Child. For film awards, playing a real person is like catnip; will the Emmy's follow suit? I think so. It's a big, boisterous, loving performance that will likely bewitch any voter willing to see it.

6.

Selena Gomez- Only Murders in the BuildingIssa Rae's been here before, and she seems like the consensus pick here (Gold Derby has her at #5), but I just Insecure's final season came and went so long ago, and has little momentum, as opposed to the fifth season's voting period release in 2020. Ross, too, has been here before (five times before, in fact), but Black-ish is another that's been flying under the radar. She's fallen off in tougher years before, particularly in 2019's bloodbath; i.e. voters are willing to let her fall off in tough years. The final season factor may help, but the fact that she isn't going to win may dampen enthusiasm. Lyonne was nominated for Russian Doll's first season, but that was three years ago, and the series second season came and went with little enthusiasm. With that in mind, I think Gomez gets in from the Murders love, as well as the newness factor. It helps that she's strong in the series. Still...

Other Possibilities

7.

Issa Rae- Insecure

8.

Elle Fanning- The Great

9.

Tracee Ellis Ross- The Great

10.

Natasha Lyonne- Russian Doll

11.

Sarah Jessica Parker- And Just Like That...

1.

Michael Keaton- DopesickThis is a rather thin category, so I feel pretty confident that #1-4 are all safe. Honestly, any of them could win. Keaton won all the precursors, so he's the early frontrunner.

2.

Andrew Garfield- Under the Banner of Heaven

3.

Ben Foster- The Survivor

4.

Colin Firth- The Staircase

5.

Oscar Isaac- Scenes From a MarriageAre there hotter stars here? Does his performance in Moon Knight split votes? Is HBO stretched too thin here, with two very likely nominees above? I expect him to get in, but here's where I think things get murky.

6.

Samuel L. Jackson- The Last Days of Ptolemy GreyStan is possible, but I'm not sure about Pam & Tommy's chances. Bettany could ping pong off of last year's nomination, but I don't think anyone cares about A Very British Scandal. Apple's pushing Leto, but I think he's such a divisive figure that I'm not betting on him. Schreiber could surprise and score another nomination, but more than one slot for an actor from a TV movie is a stretch these days (and I would be really surprised to see Foster miss). Sam Elliot is possible, but does he still have stink from his The Power of the Dog statement? Maybe. Jackson seems safest to me; he's an omnipresent actor who rarely scores accolades. I think he's due.

Other Possibilities

7.

Sebastian Stan- Pam & Tommy

8.

Jared Leto- WeCrashed

9.

Paul Bettany- A Very British Scandal

10.

Oscar Isaac- Moon Knight

11.

Liev Schrieber- Ray Donovan: The Movie

12.

Sam Elliot- 1883

1.

Zendaya- EuphoriaReturning winner with various "Emmy" moments.

2.

Laura Linney- OzarkLock.

3.

Jennifer Aniston- The Morning ShowSafe, though probably not winning.

4.

Mandy Moore- This Is UsShe's only been nominated once, but the series' final season was such a love letter to her character, and gave her so many Emmy reels, that it feel like she's a genuine contender here. "The Train" could be a winning tape.

5.

Melanie Lynskey- YellowjacketsAn often unheralded actress in a genuine player, Lynskey seems like a strong bet here. She won the Critics' Choice Award, and scored a TCA nod to boot. No lock (unless they are the hottest show on the block, freshman series on uncertain), but a solid bet.

6.

Sandra Oh- Killing EveI see the last spot coming down to Comer, Oh and Reilly. Comer won a few years ago, and Reilly spews venom like few have ever seen, but I think Oh's got a solid contingent of fans. She's been nominated nine times, including for the first three seasons of this show (that includes a particularly strong lineup in 2020), and her contention for Comedy Actress, for her role on The Chair, should draw a few more eyeballs. Comer's won, and the final season was terrible, so I don't see a lot of residual love for the show (just Oh), and I'm still not entirely sold on Yellowstone. Add in the fact that despite whole-body work from Reilly, her character is one of the most irrational and unpleasant on television and I think that will be a minor drawback.

Other Possibilities

7.

Kelly Reilly- Yellowstone

8.

Jodie Comer- Killing Eve

9.

Britt Lower- SeveranceA strong potential spoiler, Lower could score thanks to her terrific work and Severance's potency. Maybe.

10.

Reese Witherspoon- The Morning Show

Guys, I blew it with timing this year. The format takes too much time, so...

1. Murray Bartlett- The White Lotus
2. Naveen Andrews- The Dropout
3. Peter Sarsgaard- Dopesick
4. Michael Stuhlbarg- Dopesick
5. William H. Macy- The Dropout
6. Matthew Goode- The Offer
7. Wyatt Russell- Under the Banner of Heaven

This is always an unpredictable category, with the majority of slots going to the most beloved properties (each of the past four years have seen three contenders from at least one series, and it's been 10 years since the category housed only singe series nominees). That said, Bartlett is the only lock I see here. Jake Lacy or Steven Zahn could sneak in if The White Lotus get a lot of love, but after a full year of contenders, I think holding the category's favorite is the series' best bet. Dopesick is the favorite, so a couple of slots feels like a solid bet. Sarsgaard is probably in, as is Stuhlbarg. The later has two chances though, as he's also up for The Staircase. His villainous Dopesick work is the more showy, though it's possible that both split votes and he misses. I doubt it though.

Andrews seems the more likely of The Dropout contenders; a prominent role for a former nominee. Macy's more forehead than performance, but it's an odd character from a beloved actor, from a well-liked series. Probably enough. My last two spots feel like wildcards, though I'm feeling weirdly fine with them. The Offer got pretty rough reviews, but Goode's work as Hollywood legend Robert Evans was acclaimed by even those who hated the series. It's a big, flashy performance from a notable show. Russell, too, is doing flashy work, but in a different way; his crazed, manic work on Under the Banner of Heaven toed the line between hilarity and terror with such nuance that I think voters will remember it.

Other Possibilities

8. Nick Robinson- Maid
9. Seth Rogen- Pam & Tommy
10. Steve Zahn- The White Lotus
11. Will Poulter- Dopesick
12. Jake Lacy- The White Lotus
13. Clive Owen- Impeachment: American Crime Story
14. Shea Whigham- Gaslit

I had had Robinson in for a while, but I'm uncertain about him here. He got strong notices, but most of the potential nominees here's series were released later (i.e. fresher in minds) and younger actors have always had a harder time here than established character actors. Rogen's got buzz too, though I still think most of the buzz for Pam & Tommy has been overblown. I think his mostly comedic role will suffer compared to more dramatic work here. Dopesick and/or The White Lotus could certainly score an extra spot, though I'm not sure who would make the jump, so I'm not predicting them. Owen played Clinton, and the ACS brand is strong here, but Impeachment has no heat. Gaslit has several opportunities here, though Whigham's creepy G. Gordon Liddy

1. Hannah Waddingham- Ted Lasso
2. Hannah Einbinder- Hacks
3. Alex Borstein- The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
4. Kate McKinnon- Saturday Night Live
5. Juno Temple- Ted Lasso
6. Sarah Goldberg- Barry
7. Janelle James- Abbott Elementary
8. Sheryl Lee Ralph- Abbott Elementary

The only real variables I see here are the Abbott stars. #1-5 are locks, and Goldberg feels pretty safe (in a perfect world, she might actually win). James is the likelier of the two, her performance proving to be a breakout comedic role, but I think Ralph will sneak in too. She's a veteran character actor, finally scoring a worthy role in a hit series. I think voters will see her as being due, I the love for Abbott Elementary will only aid her.

Other Possibilities

9. Aidy Bryant- Saturday Night Live
10. Cecily Strong- Saturday Night Live
11. Meg Stalter- Hacks
12. Amy Ryan- Only Murders in the Building
13. Marin Hinkle- The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
14. Yvonne Orji- Insecure
15. Ariana DeBose- Schmigadoon!
16. Holland Taylor- The Chair

1. Kieran Culkin- Succession
2. Matthew Macfadyen- Succession
3. Billy Crudup- The Morning Show
4. Nicholas Braun- Succession
5. Oh Young-soo- Squid Game
6. Giancarlo Esposito- Better Call Saul
7. John Turturro- Severance
8. Alan Ruck- Succession

#1-4 are all locks, with #5 looking pretty safe. Esposito has been nominated twice for the past two seasons of Saul, and three straight years as he was nominated last year for The Mandalorian; i.e. he's got fans, so that'll help him. Turturro's another well-respected acting, a previous winner to boot. Severance is a major player this year, and his work is a major part of that. #8 is a contentious spot. Jonathan Banks could make his way back in, but after a miss last time and a similarly uneventful first half of season six, I think he'll have to wait until next year. David Harbour could make it back in, but he, too, had an uneventful year, and I don't think he's the Stranger Things star with the most heat. Eric Dane did some striking work on Euphoria, but I'm not sold on the series' prospects beyond lead actress. Sullivan's been here twice and, honestly, probably did his best work this year, but this is a crowded field, with a lot of newcomers and returning stars with much more heat. With that in mind, I'm taking Alan Ruck at #8. Succession's the main player here, and Ruck had, likely, his most eventful season. He's no safe play, but Succession is on fire.

Other Possibilities

9. Jonathan Banks- Better Call Saul
10. David Harbour- Stranger Things
11. Eric Dane- Euphoria
12. Chris Sullivan- This Is Us
13. Park Hae-soo- Squid Game
14. Christopher Walken- Severance
15. Steve Carell- The Morning Show
16. Jon Huertas- This Is Us

1. Jennifer Coolidge- The White Lotus
2. Kaitlyn Dever- Dopesick
3. Andie MacDowell- Maid
4. Connie Britton- The White Lotus
5. Juliette Binoche- The Staircase
6. Laurie Metcalf- The Dropout
7. Rosario Dawson- Dopesick

With the way this category often goes, this could just be Kaitlyn Dever, maybe MacDowell, and a whole category of White Lotus stars. I'm not joking. This category goes hard for the projects and stars it loves, and The White Lotus is stacked here. That said, I think they spread the wealth a bit. #1 and #2 are my only locks here, with #3 and #4 looking solid-ish. After that...? Binoche is an Oscar winner with a strong turn in The Staircase. With a cast as stacked as the HBO true crime drama has, it would surprise me if it only managed to snack one nomination, and Binoche seems the most likely. Metcalf is a beloved figure, and multi-winner, with some scene-stealing work in The Dropout, and I think she'll do well here. Dawson does strong work, and I expect Dopesick to do quite well with actors. I don't know guys. We'll see.

Other Possibilities

8. Alexandra Daddario- The White Lotus
9. Anika Noni Rose- Maid
10. Natasha Rothwell- The White Lotus
11. Ellen Burstyn- The First Lady
12. Edie Falco- Impeachment: American Crime Story
13. Sydney Sweeney- The White Lotus
14. Juno Temple- The Offer

1. Brett Goldstein- Ted Lasso
2. Henry Winkler- Barry
3. Tony Shalhoub- The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
4. Anthony Carrigan- Barry
5. Bowen Yang- Saturday Night Live
6. Kenan Thompson- Saturday Night Live
7. Nick Mohammed- Ted Lasso
8. Brian Tyree Henry- Atlanta

#1-4 are safe. Any of the back half, though, could easily fall off. Neither SNL star had major seasons; Thompson is always dependable, but Yang seemed a bit more absent this season. Both probably make it in (this is a category that rarely changes that radically), but don't be surprised if someone like Paul W. Downs or Stephen Root takes their spot. Same for Mohammed and Henry. While both did terrific work, they've both got major drawbacks. The Lasso star did tremendous work, but the audience came to loathe the character's dark turn so much that it may end up affecting his spot. Henry could fall off for many reasons; he's only been nominated here once (didn't have time to become a category perennial), Atlanta may be in for a rough nomination morning, and he was only really visible in two or three episodes. He likely had the strongest arc of the series' season though, and it would be surprising for Lasso to dominate this category one year and fall off so completely the next, so I think both men make the cut.

Other Possibilities

9. Paul W. Downs- Hacks
10. Stephen Root- Barry
11. Carl Clemons-Hopkins- Hacks
12. Luke Kirby- The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
13. Brendan Hunt- Ted Lasso
14. David Hyde Pierce- Julia
15. Andre Braugher- Brooklyn Nine-Nine
16. Taika Waititi- Our Flag Means Death

1. Julia Garner- Ozark
2. Sarah Snook- Succession
3. Jung Ho-yeon- Squid Game
4. J. Smith Cameron- Succession
5. Christina Ricci- Yellowjackets
6. Patricia Arquette- Severance
7. Rhea Seehorn- Better Call Saul
8. Yuh-Jung Youn- Pachinko

Other Possibilities

9. Millie Bobby Brown- Stranger Things
10. Sydney Sweeney- Euphoria
11. Julianna Margulies- The Morning Show
12. Sadie Sink- Stranger Things
13. Fiona Shaw- Killing Eve
14. Chrissy Metz- This Is Us
15. Kim Joo-ryoung- Squid Game
16. Melissa McCarthy- Nine Perfect Strangers

1. Lucia Aniello, Paul W. Downs, & Jen Statsky- Hacks: "The One and Only"
2. Quinta Brunson- Abbott Elementary: "Pilot"
3. Steve Martin & John Hoffman- Only Murders in the Building- "True Crime"
4. Alec Berg & Bill Hader- Barry- "starting now"
5. Jason Sudeikis & Joe Kelly- Ted Lasso: "Inverting the Pyramid of Success"
6. Stefani Robinson- What We Do in the Shadows: "The Wellness Center"
7. Liz Sarnoff- Barry: "candy asses"

Other Possibilities

8. Sterlin Harjo and Taika Waititi- Reservation Dogs: "Fuckin' Rez Dogs"
9. Tony McNamara- The Great: "Alone At Last"
10. Jane Becker- Ted Lasso: "No Weddings and a Funeral"
11. Bill Wrubel- Ted Lasso- "Rainbow"
12. Duffy Boudreau- Barry- "710N"
13. David Jenkins and Yvonne Zima- Our Flag Means Death: "Act of Grace"
14. Steven Glover- Atlanta: "Three Slaps"

1. Jesse Armstrong- Succession- "All the Bells Say"
2. Dan Erickson- Severance- "The We We Are"
3. Hwang Dong-hyuk- Squid Game- "One Lucky Day"
4. Thomas Schnauz- Better Call Saul- "Plan and Execution"
5. Chris Mundy- Ozark- "A Hard Way to Go"
6. The Duffer Brothers- Stranger Things- "Chapter Seven: The Massacre at Hawkins Lab"
7. Ashley Lyle & Bart Nickerson- Yellowjackets: "Pilot"

Armstrong is probably winning again. Erickson could give him a run, as could Dong-hyuk. Ozark submitted two, with Mundy's series finale the more likely of the two. "Ellie" has a shot, though, and this is a show that scored three nominations last time. With that being said, Mundy's slot doesn't feel guaranteed; the series had a divisive final season, and an even more divisive finale. Still taking him. Yellowjackets could either over or under-perform, but this is a relatively slim category, and pilot episodes of hot new series typically do well here (Showtime hasn't scored here since 2013, so don't take this strongly). Saul submitted six out of seven of their 6.5 season, meaning the love will be spread. Feels wrong to leave it out though, and Schnauz's finale is likely freshest in voters minds (don't count out three-time nominee Gordon Smith's "Rock and Hard Place" though). The Duffers missed last time, but Stranger Things has a lot of momentum right now, and I think their only submission should make the cut.

Other Possibilities

8. Gordon Smith- Better Call Saul: "Rock and Hard Place"
9. Dan Fogelman- This Us Us: "Us"
10. Taylor Sheridan- Yellowstone: "Half the Money"
11. Paul Kolsby- Ozark- "Ellie"
12. Sam Levinson- Euphoria- "Stand Still Like the Hummingbird"
13. Kerry Ehrin and Scott Troy- The Morning Show: "La Amara Vita"
14. Soo Hugh- Pachinko: "Chapter One"

1. Mike White- The White Lotus
2. Danny Strong- Dopesick: "The People vs Purdue Pharma"
3. Molly Smith Metzler- Maid- "Snaps"
4. Elizabeth Meriwether- The Dropout- "I'm in A Hurry"
5. Patrick Somerville- Station Eleven: "Unbroken Circle"
6. Dustin Lance Black- Under the Banner of Heaven: "When God Was Love"

Other Possibilities

7. Antonio Campos- The Staircase: "911"
8. Brandon Boyce & Dustin Lance Black- Under the Banner of God: "Blood Atonement"
9. Taylor Sheridan- 1883
10. George Pelecanos & David Simon- We Own This City- "Part One"
11. Mike Flanagan & James Flanagan- Midnight Mass- "Book V: Gospel"
12. Maggie Cohn- The Staircase: "Seek and Ye Shall"
13. Justine Juel Gillmer- The Survivor

1. Bill Hader- Barry: "710N"
2. Lucia Aniello- Hacks: "There Will Be Blood"
3. Amy Sherman-Palladino- The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel- "How Do You Get To Carnegie Hall?"
4. Jamie Babbitt- Only Murders in the Building- "True Crime"
5. Erica Dunton- Ted Lasso: "Rainbow"
6. Hiro Murai- Atlanta: "New Jazz"
7. James Widdoes- B-Positive: "Bagels, Billiards, & a Magic Show" (ALT- Pamela Fryman- How I Met Your Father: "Timing Is Everything")

Other Possibilities

8. Declan Lowney- Ted Lasso: "Inverting the Pyramid of Success"
9. MJ Delaney- Ted Lasso: "No Weddings and a Funeral"
10. Cherien Dabis- Only Murders in the Building- "The Boy From 6B"
11. Randall Einhorn- Abbott Elementary- "Pilot"
12. Daniel Palladino- The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel: "Ethan...Esther...Chaim"
13. Sam Jones- Ted Lasso: "Beard After Hours"
14. Christopher Miller- The Afterparty: "Yasper"

1. Hwang Dong-hyuk- Squid Game- "Red Light, Green Light"
2. Ben Stiller- Severance- "The We We Are"
3. Mark Mylod- Succession- "All the Bells Say"
4. Lorene Scafaria- Succession- "Too Much Birthday"
5. Jason Bateman- Ozark- "A Hard Way to Go"
6. Shawn Levy- Stranger Things- "Chapter Four: Dear Billy"
7. Karyn Kusama- Yellowjackets: "Pilot"

I don't think Squid Game will win here, but it's the only show smart enough to submit one episode (granted, that's because one man directed the whole series, but the point still holds). Both Severance submissions could score, but this is a packed category; incredibly so, this year. Stiller directed the pilot, and six of the series' nine episodes, so I think he gets the edge. Same goes for Stranger Things, submitting two out it's seven episodes. I could easily see Levy and The Duffer Brothers scoring, but "Dear Billy" has been hailed as the series' finest and features a breathtaking climax, so I'll give him the edge (though, again, both could make the cut, or the creators could usurp him and score their third nomination here).

Ozark submitted five of it's 14 episodes, and I just don't think the show has the heat to score more than one, nor the diversity of selections. Considering Bateman has been nominated and won here before, I'll give him the edge (the Laura Linney did a pretty terrific episode, and could usurp him). Succession went even bigger, submitting six of it's nine episodes. It dominated the DGA nominations (it took all five slots), with Mylod winning (i.e. he seems like an easy pick). I could, maybe see, three slots, but two feels about right in this incredibly tough category. With that in mind, I think Scafaria's nightmare "Too Much Birthday" stands out from the pack (don't sleep on "What It Takes", previous winner Andrij Parekh'S submission). I'm taking Kusama with my last spot. There's a lot of strong competition, but Yellowjackets is one of the buzzier new shows and pilots tend to do well here. Plus, despite their growing problems elsewhere, Showtime is fairly consistent here, missing only four times since 2010. This is their only player, and I expect them to push it like hell (I think it's also worth considering that the past few years have been better for female directors, and it would be odd to see only one score here).

Other Possibilities

8. The Duffer Brothers- Stranger Things: "Chapter Seven: The Massacre at Hawkins Labs"
9. Aoife McArdle- Severance: "The You You Are"
10. Andrij Parekh- Succession: "What It Takes"
11. Taylor Sheridan- Ozark- "Keep the Wolves Close"
12. Sam Levinson- Euphoria- "Stand Still Like the Hummingbird"
13. Mimi Leder- The Morning Show: "La Amara Vita"
14. Laura Linney- Ozark: "Pound of Flesh and Stick Kickin'"

1. Mike White- The White Lotus
2. Danny Strong- Dopesick- "The People vs Purdue Pharma"
3. Barry Levinson- The Survivor
4. Antonio Campos- The Staircase- "911"
5. Taylor Sheridan- 1883- "1883"
6. Courtney Hunt- Under the Banner of Heaven- "Church and State"

Other Possibilities

7. Hiro Murai- Station Eleven: "Wheel of Fire"
8. John Wells- Maid: "Sky Blue"
9. Dustin Lance Black- Under the Banner of Heaven: "One Mighty and Strong"
10. Michael Showalter- The Dropout: "Green Juice"
11. Ryan Murphy- Impeachment: American Crime Story: "Man Handled"
12. Craig Gillespie- Pam & Tommy- "I Love You, Tommy"
13. Isabel Sandoval- Under the Banner of Heaven- "Revelation"