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Best Picture
A Star Is Born (2018)
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Still in the No. 1 spot, definitely getting nominated, if not winning. 2.
The only thing it missed was a SAG Ensemble nomination, which was always a longshot; i.e. The Shape of Water proved, last year, that you can still win BP without that important precursor. A Best Picture win from the Critics' Choice Awards is certainly a good omen.3.
Nominated everywhere that it needs to. I don't think it's necessarily in the number #3 spot to win, but DGA, PGA, SAG, and WGA nominations bode exceedingly well for it's nomination chances.4.
Again, it's doubtful that it wins. That said, it's been nominated everywhere it needs to, as well as having both the critical and commercial backing necessary; Black Panther will be the first comic book movie nominated for Best Picture. 5.
That odd SAG Ensemble snub notwithstanding, The Favourite has shown up everywhere that it needs to (aside from DGA), and is highly likely to score a BP nod.6.
While it's racial-based criticisms have hit enough that it's not going to win this prize, it would be surprising to see Green Book miss the cut. Outside of SAG, it's been nominated everywhere that it needed to be, including a big win at the Golden Globes.7.
Outside of the Ensemble snub at the SAG Awards, Vice has picked up key nominations everywhere that it's needed to, despite a decidedly mixed response from critics and audiences. Not a lock, but looking pretty firm for a nomination.
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Ugh. Despite some exceedingly mixed reviews and genuine pushback from critics, Bohemian Rhapsody finds itself as one of the most improbable Oscar contenders in recent memory. With that stunner of a Globe win, and nominations from every guild (outside of DGA and WGA), it looks like it will make it in. It's not winning, there are just way too many detractors for that to happen, but it would now be something of a surprise, and relief, to see it left out of the final group.9.
All of the potential nominees above also scored the all-important Producer's Guild nomination, which has an exceedingly high rate Oscar BP correlation; i.e. they've got a lot of momentum. That said, it's also exceedingly rare for the PGA to predict the whole BP lineup, as it's only done so four times in it's history, most recently in 2016 (though it was pretty hard for people to miss that nine-picture lineup). There's usually, at least, one small critical darling that sneaks in, thanks to ardent support from dedicated voters. Of the non-PGA nominees this year, the only one I see having that kind of support is Beale Street; the only guild it showed up at was WGA, but it's got a lot of respect and indie-cred, and I think Barry Jenkins' has gained enough auteur-respect over the past couple of years that he's got a strong enough base of supporters. That said, there are a lot of contenders for this last spot, and a solid possibility that it closes out at eight nominees. Other Possibilities
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After those top films, things get a bit murkier. Of the rest, I suppose Crazy Rich Asians seems to a bit more likely. It scored big nominations at the Golden Globes and, more importantly, SAG and PGAs. It's also got the hype for being such a watershed moment for Asian representation onscreen. While it would be a surprise to see it make the cut, it certainly wouldn't be the biggest. 11.
Another blockbuster that's been lingering around all awards season, A Quiet Place got a big boost from the Producers' Guild, as well as a surprise acting nod from SAG. It's got a lot of industry support (it's been doing well with the guilds), and it would certainly be enticing for voters to add another quality blockbuster into the mix (certainly more so than my #8 pick). That said, it's still a horror film, which, even after last year's Get Out, is a major hurdle to overcome, and I'm not sure many voters would feel happy making Michael Bay an Oscar nominee (he's a producer on the film). Still an outside contender though.12.
Mary Poppins Returns is a classic case of pre-release hype gone awry. Before it's release, it was a major musical sequel to one of the genre's most beloved ever, and the likely blockbuster hit of the holiday season. Then, people saw it. The reviews were solid, but not rapturous, nor did it have small pockets of ecstatic praise that some of the more divisive films above (Vice, presumably Bohemian Rhapsody). It also didn't do particularly great at the box office; solid, but not quite overly-enthusiastic. Still, the Academy loves musicals, and it'll have enough below-the-line support to possibly sway voters for the film overall.
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Best Director
Roma (2018)
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Best Actress
The Wife (2017)
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Best Actor
Bohemian Rhapsody (2018)
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Best Supporting Actor
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Best Supporting Actress
The Favourite (2018)
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Best Original Screenplay
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Best Adapted Screenplay
If Beale Street Could Talk (2018)
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Best Foreign Language Film
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Best Animated Feature
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Has hit at just the right time, and has won the Golden Globe and Critics' Choice Awards. It appears to have the momentum necessary to call it a frontrunner.2.
Lock3.
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Probably safe, but not quite invincible. 5.
Again, history is in it's corner, but the change in voting, allowing all members to vote for nominations, could mean that a more mainstream film breaks through.Other Possibilities
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Best Documentary Feature
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Best Cinematography
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Best Score
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7. Marco Beltrami- A Quiet Place
8. Nicholas Britell- Vice
9. Carter Burwell- The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
10. Ben Salisbury and Geoff Barrow- Annihilation
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Best Song
Dumplin' (2018)
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7."Trip a Little Light Fantastic"- Mary Poppins Returns
8."Keep Reachin'"- Quincy
9."When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings"- The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
10."Treasure"- Beautiful Boy
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Best Production Design
First Man (2018)
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Best Costume Design
Black Panther (2018)
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Best Film Editing
1. Jay Cassidy- A Star Is Born
2. Alfonso Cuarón and Adam Gough- Roma
3. Tom Cross- First Man
4. Hank Corwin- Vice
5. Barry Alexander Brown- BlacKkKlansman
Other Possibilities
6. Yorgos Mavropsaridis- The Favourite
7. John Ottman- Bohemian Rhapsody
8. Michael P. Shawver and Debbie Berman- Black Panther
9. Patrick J. Don Vito- Green Book
10. Christopher Tellefsen- A Quiet Place
2. Alfonso Cuarón and Adam Gough- Roma
3. Tom Cross- First Man
4. Hank Corwin- Vice
5. Barry Alexander Brown- BlacKkKlansman
6. Yorgos Mavropsaridis- The Favourite
7. John Ottman- Bohemian Rhapsody
8. Michael P. Shawver and Debbie Berman- Black Panther
9. Patrick J. Don Vito- Green Book
10. Christopher Tellefsen- A Quiet Place
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Best Sound Editing
1. First Man
2. A Quiet Place
3. Black Panther
4. Mission: Impossible- Fallout
5. Roma
Other Possibilities
6. Ready Player One
7. Aquaman
8. A Star Is Born
9. Incredibles 2
10. Bohemian Rhapsody
2. A Quiet Place
3. Black Panther
4. Mission: Impossible- Fallout
5. Roma
6. Ready Player One
7. Aquaman
8. A Star Is Born
9. Incredibles 2
10. Bohemian Rhapsody
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Best Sound Mixing
A Quiet Place (2018)
1. A Star Is Born
2. First Man
3. A Quiet Place
4. Black Panther
5. Bohemian Rhapsody
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6. Mary Poppins Returns
7. Mission: Impossible- Fallout
8. Roma
9. Ready Player One
10. Avengers: Infinity War
2. First Man
3. A Quiet Place
4. Black Panther
5. Bohemian Rhapsody
6. Mary Poppins Returns
7. Mission: Impossible- Fallout
8. Roma
9. Ready Player One
10. Avengers: Infinity War
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Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Stan & Ollie (2018) (2018)
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Best Visual Effects
Avengers: Infinity War (2018)
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BradWesley123's rating:
A Star Is Born: 10
The Favourite: 9
Roma: 9
First Man: 7
Vice: 7
BlacKkKlansman: 6
Bohemian Rhapsody: 4
Green Book: 4
If Beale Street Could Talk: 4
Mary Poppins Returns: 4
Can You Ever Forgive Me?: 3
A Quiet Place: 3
Cold War: 2
First Reformed: 2
RBG: 2
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