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Final 2019 Oscar Predictions

Movie list created by BradWesley123 Avatar

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Best Picture

People who added this item 249 Average listal rating (197 ratings) 7.3 IMDB Rating 7.9

1.

Still in the No. 1 spot, definitely getting nominated, if not winning.

2.

The only thing it missed was a SAG Ensemble nomination, which was always a longshot; i.e. The Shape of Water proved, last year, that you can still win BP without that important precursor. A Best Picture win from the Critics' Choice Awards is certainly a good omen.

3.

Nominated everywhere that it needs to. I don't think it's necessarily in the number #3 spot to win, but DGA, PGA, SAG, and WGA nominations bode exceedingly well for it's nomination chances.

4.

Again, it's doubtful that it wins. That said, it's been nominated everywhere it needs to, as well as having both the critical and commercial backing necessary; Black Panther will be the first comic book movie nominated for Best Picture.

5.

That odd SAG Ensemble snub notwithstanding, The Favourite has shown up everywhere that it needs to (aside from DGA), and is highly likely to score a BP nod.

6.

While it's racial-based criticisms have hit enough that it's not going to win this prize, it would be surprising to see Green Book miss the cut. Outside of SAG, it's been nominated everywhere that it needed to be, including a big win at the Golden Globes.

7.


Outside of the Ensemble snub at the SAG Awards, Vice has picked up key nominations everywhere that it's needed to, despite a decidedly mixed response from critics and audiences. Not a lock, but looking pretty firm for a nomination.

8.

Ugh. Despite some exceedingly mixed reviews and genuine pushback from critics, Bohemian Rhapsody finds itself as one of the most improbable Oscar contenders in recent memory. With that stunner of a Globe win, and nominations from every guild (outside of DGA and WGA), it looks like it will make it in. It's not winning, there are just way too many detractors for that to happen, but it would now be something of a surprise, and relief, to see it left out of the final group.

9.

All of the potential nominees above also scored the all-important Producer's Guild nomination, which has an exceedingly high rate Oscar BP correlation; i.e. they've got a lot of momentum. That said, it's also exceedingly rare for the PGA to predict the whole BP lineup, as it's only done so four times in it's history, most recently in 2016 (though it was pretty hard for people to miss that nine-picture lineup). There's usually, at least, one small critical darling that sneaks in, thanks to ardent support from dedicated voters. Of the non-PGA nominees this year, the only one I see having that kind of support is Beale Street; the only guild it showed up at was WGA, but it's got a lot of respect and indie-cred, and I think Barry Jenkins' has gained enough auteur-respect over the past couple of years that he's got a strong enough base of supporters. That said, there are a lot of contenders for this last spot, and a solid possibility that it closes out at eight nominees.

Other Possibilities

10.

After those top films, things get a bit murkier. Of the rest, I suppose Crazy Rich Asians seems to a bit more likely. It scored big nominations at the Golden Globes and, more importantly, SAG and PGAs. It's also got the hype for being such a watershed moment for Asian representation onscreen. While it would be a surprise to see it make the cut, it certainly wouldn't be the biggest.

11.

Another blockbuster that's been lingering around all awards season, A Quiet Place got a big boost from the Producers' Guild, as well as a surprise acting nod from SAG. It's got a lot of industry support (it's been doing well with the guilds), and it would certainly be enticing for voters to add another quality blockbuster into the mix (certainly more so than my #8 pick). That said, it's still a horror film, which, even after last year's Get Out, is a major hurdle to overcome, and I'm not sure many voters would feel happy making Michael Bay an Oscar nominee (he's a producer on the film). Still an outside contender though.

12.

Mary Poppins Returns is a classic case of pre-release hype gone awry. Before it's release, it was a major musical sequel to one of the genre's most beloved ever, and the likely blockbuster hit of the holiday season. Then, people saw it. The reviews were solid, but not rapturous, nor did it have small pockets of ecstatic praise that some of the more divisive films above (Vice, presumably Bohemian Rhapsody). It also didn't do particularly great at the box office; solid, but not quite overly-enthusiastic. Still, the Academy loves musicals, and it'll have enough below-the-line support to possibly sway voters for the film overall.
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Best Director

People who added this item 234 Average listal rating (178 ratings) 7.6 IMDB Rating 7.8

1.

Alfonso Cuarón- Roma
Probable winner.

2.

Bradley Cooper- A Star Is Born
Should be locked in.

3.

Spike Lee- BlacKkKlansman
He's in.

4.

Yorgos Lanthimos- The Favourite
Missed a key DGA nomination, but I expect that the director's branch's penchant for auteur-ish, singular filmmaking will propel him in.

5.

Adam McKay- Vice
Despite a truly divisive reaction to the film, Vice has continuing to chug along all this awards season, scoring major nominations everywhere. This has included McKay, scoring director nods at the Golden Globes, Critics' Choice Awards, and, most importantly, DGA. DGA usually goes about four out of five when matching up with the Oscars, with the, usually, most commercial and less distinct effort missing out (see #7). McKay's frenzied biopic is a messy film, but it's got ambition and personality pouring out of it, and I think that is what will score him his second nod here. That said, this a crowded field with a lot of contenders...

Other Possibilities


6.

Barry Jenkins- If Beale Street Could Talk
I held on to Jenkins scoring a nod for a while, but he, and the film, just have had too disappointing of a season for me to keep him. I still think he could get in though, quite easily in fact; this category has gone pretty wild this decade with out-of-left-field nominees. Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild), Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher), Lenny Abrahamson (Room), PT Anderson (Phantom Thread); eventual nominees that didn't score any precursor love. The director's branch loves a distinct voice, and Jenkins' certainly got one.

7.

Peter Farrelly- Green Book
He's scored all of the nominations that he needs, and his film just won the most Golden Globes this year. So why am I down on his chances this year? Too much controversy; from Farrelly's own past genital exposure, to the Muslim-9/11 tweet, to the beef with the Shirley family. Add to that the fact that Farrelly's film is less auteur-driven the films above, and I think it gets a Picture and acting nods, but I'm not sure about anything else. Don't be surprised if he makes the cut though.

8.

Ryan Coogler- Black Panther
Unlikely, as he hasn't been nominated anywhere else and I suspect that many voters will see the direction of the film as "standard issue" Marvel fare, but he could certainly find his way in.

9.

Pawel Pawlikowski- Cold War
Another unlikely, but that surprise BAFTA nod certainly puts him into the conversation. Cuarón's likely got the foreign language spot sewn-up though, it would be surprising if two non-English film's scored spots here, and BAFTA isn't the best barometer for Oscar success (last year it only matched two nominees).

10.

Bryan Singer- Bohemian Rhapsody
He got fired during production, her hasn't shown up anywhere else, and he's a fucking alleged pedophile, but people seem to love Rhapsody so much that I really wouldn't be surprised to see him make it in. It's, thankfully, a longshot, but I've got a terrible gut feeling about this.
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Best Actress

People who added this item 52 Average listal rating (41 ratings) 6.9 IMDB Rating 7.2

1.

Glenn Close- The Wife
After the Globe win, and her stirring speech, it appears that Close's chances have come back around, and she looks like the favorite.

2.

Olivia Colman- The Favourite
Or is The Favourite star the favorite? She too won a Globe, and is likely a shoe-in for BAFTA. If SAG goes her way, it's over.

3.

Lady Gaga- A Star Is Born
She's a lock for a nomination, but that surprising Globe loss knocked the wind out of her sails terms of winning. Gotta win the SAG to stay in the race.

4.

Melissa McCarthy- Can You Ever Forgive Me?
She's not in the hunt for a victory, but McCarthy has scored nominations everywhere that she needs to make the cut here. Critics' Choice, Golden Globe, SAG and BAFTA nominated her, so she's got a lot of support. That said, I wouldn't go as far as to call her a lock, this decade has seen several women score those key nods only to miss (Amy Adams for Arrival, Emma Thompson for Saving Mr. Banks, Marion Cotillard for Rust and Bone, Tilda Swinton for We Need to Talk About Kevin). Likely, but not secure.

5.

Yalitza Aparicio- Roma
After the top four, the #5 spot appears to come down to newcomer Aparicio and frequently snubbed Blunt. Blunt scored a key SAG nomination, as well as at the Critics' Choice (where Aparicio was nominated, too) and Golden Globe Awards (she was, surprisingly, snubbed by BAFTA), but Mary Poppins Returns momentum plateaued after she scored that SAG nod, with positive-but-not-enthusiastic reviews and mildly disappointing box office. It also doesn't help that history isn't quite on Blunt's side, assuming that the four above are safe; SAG rarely matches up 100% with Oscar, only matching completely six times in 24 years, and the last time it happened was nine years ago. The shakiest usually misses, and Blunt looks to be that this time. Aparicio, however, has been picking up a little momentum lately, mostly due to Roma's prominence and respect for her understated work. It could go either way (or a third party could steal voters), but I've got a feeling that Aparicio is getting in.

Other Possibilities


6.

Emily Blunt- Mary Poppins Returns
She's neck and neck with my #5 pick, and certainly has a "due-vibe" going for her. But the film's lost buzz, as well as the fact that this isn't the only shot she's got this year at a nomination (her Supporting bid may take a few votes away from her work here) has me rethinking her chances.

7.

Viola Davis- Widows
While she's still pretty unlikely to score a nomination, that surprise BAFTA nomination shows that she's still got a lot of fans, and if #5 and #6 split enough votes, Davis could sneak her way in for an improbable nomination.

8.

Toni Collette- Hereditary
She's only scored a Critics' Choice Award not, and an Independent Spirit Award (though those have been splitting more and more with Oscar over the past couple of years), but crazier things have happened.
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Best Actor

People who added this item 349 Average listal rating (285 ratings) 6.7 IMDB Rating 8.1

1.

Christian Bale- Vice
Lock for a nomination, and starting to lock like the favorite here.

2.

Rami Malek- Bohemian Rhapsody
He just won the Golden Globe, and he's, essentially, carried Bohemian Rhapsody from box office player to major awards contender. If he wins either BAFTA or SAG, he's winning the Oscar.

3.

Bradley Cooper- A Star Is Born
He's definitely getting nominated, and could still win this if he picks up a win at the SAG awards.

4.

Viggo Mortensen- Green Book
Most likely safe, but if one of the presumed locks were to miss the cut, I'd wager it'd be Mortensen. It's happened before, actors scoring at all of the major precursors only to be snubbed at the Oscars (Jake Gyllenhaal for Nightcrawler, Tom Hanks for Captain Phillips), and the Green Book campaign has been a nightmare throughout the season. Still, he's likely in.

5.

Ethan Hawke- First Reformed
SAG went with Washington and BAFTA went with Coogan, but my gut is, as it has all season, telling me that Hawke will sqeak in for his fifth nominations (first in this category). SAG is the best barometer for these things, and Washington has a very strong shot for a nomination, having been nominated at the Globes and SAGs. That said, SAG rarely matches up five for five with the Oscars; six times in 24 years, and only thrice in the last decade (the last time was two years ago). BAFTA went with Coogan for Stan & Ollie, though that seems more like the Brits tossing a hometown favorite a nod in a narrow field. It's close between my #5 and #6 contenders (though, as mentioned, they could both usurp Mortensen), but I'm leaning towards Hawke.

Other Possibilities


6.

John David Washington- BlacKkKlansman


7.

Ryan Gosling- First Man
He only scored a Critics' Choice nod, but there's always an outside shot that he could snag that fifth spot. Unlikely though, as he hasn't shown up anywhere else, and the film hasn't scored outside craft and supporting actress all season.

8.

Steve Coogan- Stan & Ollie
The BAFTA puts him in the hunt, but the fact that this is the only place that he's shown up, as well as the fact that his costar John C. Reilly has been the only legitimate focus of acting kudos up to this point (he scored a Globe nom), makes his nomination a highly doubtful prospect.

9.

Willem Dafoe- At Eternity's Gate
Scored Critics' Choice and Golden Globe award nominations, but there's really no hype for him here. He's a beloved character actor, so don't rule it out, but it would be a big surprise.
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Best Supporting Actor

People who added this item 275 Average listal rating (214 ratings) 7.3 IMDB Rating 7.6

1.

Mahershala Ali- Green Book
Despite the film's many controversies putting other nominations in peril, Ali is still the frontrunner here.

2.

Richard E. Grant- Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Lock for a nomination, and could easily take this if he wins at either SAG or BAFTA.

3.

Adam Driver- BlacKkKlansman
He's scored nominations everywhere that matters, and his film is a major BP contender. No outside of the top two are locks, but he's looking strongest of the last three.

4.

Sam Elliot- A Star Is Born
He's gone about 50% from the major precursors (snubs at BAFTA and the Globes, but nominated by the Critics' and SAG awards), and his part is, really, quite small, but I think respect for the veteran character actor, as well as love for the film and the power of his few scenes will score him his first nomination.

5.

Michael B. Jordan- Black Panther
In a category that, generally, has a litany of possibilities, things look pretty tame here. All season long it's been Ali, Chalamet, Driver, Elliot and Grant, with Sam Rockwell taking Elliot's spot at the Globes and BAFTAs. The only other guy to score a nomination at any precursor was Jordan, who scored a nod at the Critics' Choice Awards. The SAG awards have only matched up completely with the Oscars three times in 24 years (though, to my point's detriment, they've all happened in the past decade), and the BAFTAs have never gone 5/5. While many would argue that it's Driver or Elliot, Chalamet looks the most vulnerable to me; he's a young actor who already just scored a nomination, and his film has no buzz. Jordan, on the other hand, has been snubbed a couple of times, and his performance was widely seen as being the finest in a BP contender. The Critics' Awards also has a pretty solid record when it comes to calling the "surprise" nominee who missed out on all of the other precursors; Tom Hardy for The Revenant, Michael Shannon for Nocturnal Animals. Rockwell's got a shot at the surprise spot, but I think the Globes went for him because they hadn't seen it yet and was expecting a more prominent role (he's got, generously, maybe five minutes of screentime, and Bale controls most of it), and BAFTA because Sam Elliot isn't the name there that he is here, and Panther wasn't the hit that it was in the U.S., leaving Rockwell, last year's winner, in the five spot. I don't think the Academy will put him in just from name recognition. That said, I still expect one of the five main players to miss here, and I'm leaning towards Jordan scoring his first nod.

Other Possibilities


6.

Timothée Chalamet- Beautiful Boy
He's been nominated everywhere, so the smart money is on him getting a second straight nomination. But, as mentioned, I'm not sure that his performance in a movie that no one remembers or, particularly, liked in the first place can keep his campaign afloat in the final voting period. Probably wrong though.

7.

Sam Rockwell- Vice
He scored some major nominations but, again, it would be a pretty stunning for such an inconsequential performance to be nominated (they've have only one scene to play in his nomination reel).

8.

Steve Carell- Vice
There is, also, a possibility for a performance that went un-nominated throughout the season to surprise with a nomination. Djimon Hounsou for In America, William Hurt for A History of Violence, Michael Shannon for Revolutionary Road, Max von Sydow for Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, Jonah Hill for The Wolf of Wall Street; performances that bubbled under the surface all season before finally making the Oscar leap. If there's one to do it this year, it's likely to be Carrell; he's a very well-liked actor, and he's the more substantially supporting player here for Vice. Unlikely, but I'm not willing to say it's impossible.

9.

Hugh Grant- Paddington 2
He did score a BAFTA nomination for his work here, but that was last year. It would be a stunner, but I'm willing to include him in this.

10.

Steven Yeun- Burning
Scored nominations and wins in places where the above mentioned non-precursor, eventual Oscar nominees did (LAFCA, Online Critics). Highly unlikely, but not entirely outside the realm of possibility.
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Best Supporting Actress

People who added this item 222 Average listal rating (187 ratings) 7.6 IMDB Rating 7.7

1.

Amy Adams- Vice
She's been nominated everywhere including, most importantly, BAFTA and SAG. I'm not sure if she's winning this yet, but she'll be nominated.

2.

Regina King- If Beale Street Could Talk
She missed the big precursors, BAFTA and SAG, but won both the Golden Globe and Critics' Choice Awards. While I don't know if she can overcome those big snubs as, historically, it's a tough task (just look at Sylvester Stallone a couple of years ago), it would be a shocker if she missed a nomination.

3.

Rachel Weisz- The Favourite
Feels like a lock.

4.

Emma Stone- The Favourite
The less locked in of The Favourite contenders, Stone is nevertheless highly likely to score her third nomination.

5.

Emily Blunt- A Quiet Place
All she got was that surprise SAG nod, but, I believe, where her dual contenders will take away some support for her lead bid (Mary Poppins Returns), I think they'll help score her her first nomination here. Where this category has less genuine contenders than the lead one, many may see this as a consolation nomination if they can't put her in lead. It also helps that A Quiet Place has much more buzz than other contending actresses' films; it's picked up nods at most of the major guild, including PGA. This isn't a pick that many are making (warning), but it's just plausible and wild enough for me to take the jump. That said...

Other Possibilities


6.

Margot Robbie- Mary Queen of Scots
She's on a bit of a hot streak, scoring BAFTA and SAG nominations, and coming off of her first nomination last year. That said, her film just doesn't have much buzz (outside of a some below-the-line fields), and I feel like The Favourite is likely to swallow the brunt attention for British period costume dramas (it's a comedy, but same logic applies).

7.

Claire Foy- First Man
Her only major miss this season was at SAG, but I'm still not quite feeling Foy as a nominee. Despite the fact that she's having a banner year, First Man has consistently lost buzz as the season's gone on, and more recent and/or buzzier performances have joined the fray in this category. Plus, a BAFTA nomination without a SAG kicker isn't the best precursor statistic (BAFTA usually goes about three or four for five). Smart money is on her or Robbie, but I'm just not sold.

8.

Nicole Kidman- Boy Erased
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Best Original Screenplay

People who added this item 216 Average listal rating (181 ratings) 7 IMDB Rating 8.3

1.

Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara- The Favourite
It hasn't won anything yet, but Davis and McNamara's script still feels like the most likely nominee here.

2.

Alfonso Cuarón- Roma
Lock.

3.

Adam McKay- Vice
Despite the mixed/positive response for the film, it's been a hit everywhere it's needed to be, including the screenplay categories. Not a lock by any means (#1 and #2 are the only contenders that can take that distinction), but the precursor love, as well as fellow contender Green Book's issues, leads me to believe that McKay's script will score a nomination.

4.

Nick Vallelonga, Brian Hayes Currie and Peter Farrelly- Green Book
I'm just not sure about this one. It won the Globe, and has scored nominations from every major precursor. That said, Farrelly's weathering a dick-wagging controversy and, with much more in the way of lasting power, Vallelonga is being taken to task for an old tweet supporting Trump's bullshit claim that Muslims were celebrating on rooftops after 9/11. While I still think it'll have enough support from old voters who think this stuff if just mean-spirited backlash, not legitimate criticism of two adults behavior, it wouldn't be the biggest surprise to see this fall out in favor of more critically acclaimed scripts.

5.

Paul Schrader- First Reformed
I had had Eighth Grade here after the WGA nominations, but Schrader's win at the Critics' Choice Awards is too strong a bellwether to scoff at; only one winner of the Critics' Choice Best Screenplay Award (either Original or Adapted) has missed a nomination at the Oscars (the historical snub of Gone Girl in 2015). It's not a lock, and the script hasn't shown up anywhere else (I believe that it was eligible at the WGA awards), but that's just too strong a stat to pass up.

Other Possibilities


6.

Bo Burnham- Eighth Grade
Scored nominations at the Critics' Choice Awards and, most importantly, the WGA awards, and has been able to stay in voters minds since a Summer release date. He's got a strong shot at taking the five spot, or usurping #3 or #4. As mentioned though, that Critics' Award for Reformed was too good an omen to pass up, and #3 and #4 are scripts from probably Best Picture nominees; I see the competition being too tough.

7.

Bryan Woods & Scott Beck and John Krasinski- A Quiet Place
Despite Critics' Choice and WGA Awards nominations, as well as a surprisingly present awards season for the film, it looks to be a tough journey to score the Oscar nod. This category usually leans towards the dialogue-heavy, and this is a mostly wordless film. Still, there's always a shot that #5 and #6 split votes, or either #3 or #4 (or both) fall off and it slides in. I just wouldn't bank on it though.

8.

Paweł Pawlikowski and Janusz Głowacki- Cold War
A longer shot than those above, but it did score a surprise BAFTA nod. That said, the BAFTAs usually have one pick of their own (i.e. one that's highly doubtful to overlap with Oscar), and it's unlikely that two foreign language scripts will manage to break through with a, mostly, English-speaking voting base. Not implausible though.

9.

Anthony McCarten and Peter Morgan- Bohemian Rhapsody
Highly unlikely, but the film's caught on in a big way, and that can sway voters for some surprising categories.
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Best Adapted Screenplay

1.

Barry Jenkins- If Beale Street Could Talk
Despite a, mostly, snubbed awards season for the critically acclaimed James Baldwin adaptation, Jenkins screenplay has been consistently been nominated everywhere that it's needed to be, including a win at the Critics' Choice Awards. I'm not sure if it'll take a victory yet, but it certainly looks like the most likely nominee.

2.

Charlie Wachtel & David Rabinowitz and Spike Lee & Kevin Willmott- BlacKKKlansman
Hasn't won any major award yet, but it's still a lock for a nomination.

3.

Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty- Can You Ever Forgive Me?
It's scored nominations everywhere that it's needed to; i.e. it looks like a strong bet in a rather mixed field.

4.

Bradley Cooper, Will Feters, and Eric Roth- A Star Is Born
Not the lock that it is in other categories, but the film appears to be so widely supported that it would be a stunner if it doesn't score a nod here. If it doesn't, it's out of the Best Picture race. Things look okay, one week out; it's scored both BAFTA and WGA nominations, as well as a Critics' nod, and, as mentioned, it is a BP frontrunner. I could definitely see it missing, but I can more clearly see it nominated.

5.

Joe Robert Cole and Ryan Coogler- Black Panther
While it looks good for Cole and Coogler, it's not quite great. Panther scored nominations at the Critics' Choice Awards, WGA awards, and the USC Scripter Awards, a mostly unknown but solid predictor of this category, but comic book adaptations have had a historically tough time cracking the screenplay category; only once has it happened, with last year's Logan finally breaking through. While Panther is certainly making more of a splash than that film, it also has to contend with a tougher field. The Death of Stalin picked up both a BAFTA nomination (last year) and a USC Scripter nod; Leave No Trace scored a surprise Scripter nod over BlacKkKlansman (Star was ineligible as it was adapted from previous films, so Klansman was the only main contender leapfrogged; it would be a real stunner, with all the nods its picked up, if it misses), and First Man was nominated by the Critics' Awards and BAFTA. I still see it scoring a nod here, it's got too much heat and I think voters will want to throw Coogler some sort of recognition (because Director looks like a longshot), but it does appear to be the most at-risk contender here.

Other Possibilities


6.

Armando Iannucci, Ian Martin and David Schneider- The Death of Stalin
The Scripter, coupled with last years BAFTA nod, really puts The Death of Stalin back on the map, looking like a major screenplay contender. It was a given that British voters would give this a push, but it now, clearly, appears that the film's appeal has crossed the pond. Iannucci is no stranger to surprise nominations here, as his script for In the Loop surprised with a nomination here almost a decade ago, for a similarly verbose and profane script. Add in a historical bent to the film, and it looks like a very strong player. That said, it's too difficult for me to see who it's got the heat to overtake here; as mentioned, Black Panther appears to be the most vulnerable, but it's been such a strong player this year that I'm just not sure. A Star Is Born isn't on the strongest footing either, but I'm not sure that voters won't just go along for the ride with it; they've nominated films with similarly perfunctory screenplays (in relation to the filmmaking displayed), and it isn't so visually oriented a BP contender (à la Dunkirk, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Revenant, Gravity) that's is easy too discount. It could easily be nominated, but I don't feel strong enough to include it in the final five.

7.

Josh Singer- First Man
Critics' Choice and BAFTA nominee; Singer's got a solid shot, but most would agree that First Man's main strength lie more in the crafts and less in the script. Still, it's a viable alternative to stuffy voters who don't want to include a comic book movie or a comedy.

8.

Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini- Leave No Trace
With a big momentum boost from the USC Scripters, Leave No Trace has become a viable surprise here. It's unlikely, that Scripter nod is the only one that the script's got all season (not even the Spirit Awards went for it), and the one's above have much more momentum. Still, it's got a shot if the last three or four split.

9.

Peter Chiarelli and Adele Lim- Crazy Rich Asians
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Best Foreign Language Film

People who added this item 99 Average listal rating (75 ratings) 8.1 IMDB Rating 8

1.

The winner.

2.

Lock.

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Other Possibilities


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Best Animated Feature

1.

Has hit at just the right time, and has won the Golden Globe and Critics' Choice Awards. It appears to have the momentum necessary to call it a frontrunner.

2.

Lock

3.

Lock.

4.

Probably safe, but not quite invincible.

5.

Again, history is in it's corner, but the change in voting, allowing all members to vote for nominations, could mean that a more mainstream film breaks through.

Other Possibilities


6.

As mentioned above, The Grinch is the more popular alternative, and could score votes simply for brand recognition. If The Boss Baby can make it in, so can this.

7.



8.

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Best Documentary Feature

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Other Possibilities


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Best Cinematography

People who added this item 98 Average listal rating (71 ratings) 7.5 IMDB Rating 7.6

1.

Alfonso Cuarón- Roma
Winner.

2.

Robbie Ryan- The Favourite
After nominations at most major precursors, Ryan looks like a very strong bet to be nominated.

3.

Linus Sandgren- First Man
A previous winner that's been nominated at all the major precursor awards; I don't think he's as likely as the top two, but it looks like Sandgren's scoring his second nomination.

4.

Łukasz Żal- Cold War
After big nominations at BAFTA and, more importantly, ASC, Żal moody black-and-white, box-framed work looks like a major contender here. The only real drawback could be voters looking for a bit more color, as the category's frontrunner is another b&w film. Still, I expect to see Cold War here.

5.

Matthew Libatique- A Star Is Born
I see the last spot coming down to Libatique and Laxton. Both have heralded work, but it appears that A Star Is Born's momentum may be too strong for Beale Street to overcome here. The ASC nomination for Libatique, as well as a generally disappointing season for Beale street, looks like the final shot. That said, ASC doesn't always go 100% with Oscar, though they do have a very strong record (the worst year they had was 1995, when they only predicted two nominees; in the 2010s, they've predicted all five nominees four out of seven times, including the past two years), and Laxton could certainly take the spot. Or, another contender could surprise.

Other Possibilities


6.

James Laxton- If Beale Street Could Talk


7.

Newton Thomas Sigel- Bohemian Rhapsody


8.

Rachel Morrison- Black Panther
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Best Score

People who added this item 120 Average listal rating (80 ratings) 6.4 IMDB Rating 7.2

1.

Nicholas Britell- If Beale Street Could Talk
Missed a nomination at the Golden Globes, and lost the award to First Man at the Critics' Choice Awards, but that film missed a key BAFTA nomination, and Beale Street didn't. Likely locked in.

2.

Justin Hurwitz- First Man
Has won two major prizes (GG and Critics'), but missed a key nod at the BAFTAs. While it is, no doubt, highly probable that Hurwitz is nominated, winning isn't as certain as it was. Only twice has an eventual Oscar winner here missed a BAFTA nomination in the 2000s, or since the BAFTAs became more Americanized (Frida and The Social Network).

3.

Marc Shaiman- Mary Poppins Returns
Has consistently scored nominations everywhere that it needs to, and has been seen by many as the highlight of the film. Not a lock, but looking strong.

4.

Ludwig Göransson- Black Panther
Another that's likely in, but a bit wobblier than the nominees above. Missed at BAFTA but, considering they usually only call above three or four Oscar picks, that's not really a major blemish against it. I can both see it missing, and would be surprised to see it actually miss.

5.

Terrence Blanchard- BlacKkKlansman
After a BAFTA nomination and the film's continued success on the Guild circuit, Blanchard looks better than the longshot spoiler pick that I called him last time. While I think he's the most vulnerable contender, I think the fact that he's been working a long time without a nomination, and the film's potency, will help him land the fifth spot.

Other Possibilities

6. Alexandre Desplat- Isle of Dogs
7. Marco Beltrami- A Quiet Place
8. Nicholas Britell- Vice
9. Carter Burwell- The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
10. Ben Salisbury and Geoff Barrow- Annihilation
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Best Song

People who added this item 33 Average listal rating (34 ratings) 6.5 IMDB Rating 6.7

1.

"Shallow"- A Star Is Born
Winner.

2.

"All the Stars"- Black Panther
Nominated everywhere it's needed to be, and the only contender from a major BP contender; not quite a lock, but a stronger bet than the picks below.

3.

"I'll Fight"- RBG
As I said earlier, this one is just pure Oscar catnip, and Diane Warren is so frequently nominated that it would be naive to thing she won't make it in.

4.

"The Place Where the Lost Things Go"- Mary Poppins Returns
Could get swapped on with Poppins's other song, "Trip a Little Light Fantastic", or both could cancel each other out, but "The Place Where the Lost Things Go" is the emotional, ballad-y one, and those usually are the ones that excel here.

5.

"Girl in the Movies"- Dumplin'
After the first three, things get a bit congested. Can both Mary Poppins make it in? Will they cancel each other out? Will Golden Globe nominee "Revelation" ride it's zeitgeist-y narrative to a nomination here? Can an under-the-radar nominee stun with a nomination, as is customary with this category? There's too many questions here to be sure, as all remaining contenders here have a lot of positives and negatives. All things considered, I feel better about sticking with "Girl in the Movies" than any of the others here, with Parton's name recognition pushing it over the finish line.

Other Possibilities

6."Revelation"- Boy Erased
7."Trip a Little Light Fantastic"- Mary Poppins Returns
8."Keep Reachin'"- Quincy
9."When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings"- The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
10."Treasure"- Beautiful Boy
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Best Production Design

People who added this item 170 Average listal rating (124 ratings) 7.2 IMDB Rating 7.4

1.

Hannah Beachler and Jay Hart- Black Panther
Won the Critics' Choice Award, which has missed the winner only twice since 2009; missed a key BAFTA nod, but looks like the likeliest nominee.

2.

Fiona Crombie and Alice Felton- The Favourite
It'll win the BAFTA, so this'll be a close race.

3.

John Myhre and Gordon Sim- Mary Poppins Returns
Lock.

4.

Nathan Crowley and Kathy Lucas- First Man
Not quite a lock, but the requisite precursors have consistently nominated it, and Crowley is one of the most respected production designers working today.

5.

Eugenio Caballero and Barbara Enriquez- Roma
ADG, Critics' Choice and, most importantly, BAFTA nominations make Roma a strong contender here. The fact that the film is also a major BP contender means it'll likely get more notice; i.e. more potential votes. As mentioned in the last list though, Black and White movies don't have the best history here, with only two being nominated here in the last 50 years. That said, I'm not sure that really represents a bias towards B&W films here (though it is easier to discount the work without seeing the full, naturally color designs) as much as cinema evolving to a more colorized medium. I still expect to see it make the cut.

Other Possibilities


6.

Stuart Craig and Anna Pinnock- Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
With ADG and BAFTA nominations, the biggest detriment against another nod for Craig and Pinnock is the fact that they were nominated for the first one; i.e. we've seen this world brought to life once, maybe it's just old hat now. Sequels have a better record here than in most craft categories (aside from visual effects), and the work is gorgeous. I don't quite see it breaking through, but it's got a solid shot.

7.

Nelson Coates and Andrew Baseman- Crazy Rich Asians
ADG and Critics' Choice nominations, but contemporary films don't do well here, and the category is loaded with period and fantasy contenders that'll, likely, steal the show. That said the work is strong, and voters may want to include a hit movie like this so they can use footage for it's telecast promos.

8.

Guy Hendrix Dyas and Lisa Chugg- The Nutcracker and the Four Realms


9.

Karen Murphy and Ryan Watson- A Star Is Born


10.

Adam Stockhausen and Anna Pinnock- Ready Player One
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Best Costume Design

People who added this item 670 Average listal rating (484 ratings) 6.8 IMDB Rating 7.3

1.

Ruth E. Carter- Black Panther
Lock for a nomination; only missed a BAFTA nod, but won the Critics' Choice Award, which has only missed the Oscar winner once.

2.

Sandy Powell- The Favourite
Easily locked in, and could easily take this thing.

3.

Sandy Powell- Mary Poppins Returns
Two Powell locks this year.

4.

Julian Day- Bohemian Rhapsody
With nominations from the Costumer's Guild, Critics' Choice and BAFTA awards, Day's work has been consistently recognized. In a year that's only got about three locks here, this looks like the most likely of the rest of the bunch.

5.

Mary E. Vogt- Crazy Rich Asians
It only managed a CDG nomination, but I think that Crazy Rich Asians will score a minor upset and pick up a nod here. The rich, culturally-specific costumes here are one of the many things that really makes the movie what it is, and I think voters will see that over the usual period costume line-up. That said, this looks like something of a longshot, so take this one with a grain of salt.

Other Possibilities


6.

Alexandra Byrne- Mary Queen of Scots
Critics' Choice, CDG and BAFTA nods certainly puts this one right in the hunt, but it's a film that hasn't really made much of an impact and, despite the nominations, I think the more recognizable titles above will steal it's thunder (especially the work of The Favourite). Still a very strong contender.

7.

Colleen Atwood- Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald


8.

Mary Zophres- The Ballad of Buster Scruggs


9.

Jenny Beavan- The Nutcracker and the Four Realms


10.

Kym Barrett- Aquaman
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Best Film Editing

People who added this item 92 Average listal rating (80 ratings) 6.1 IMDB Rating 7.2
1. Jay Cassidy- A Star Is Born
2. Alfonso Cuarón and Adam Gough- Roma
3. Tom Cross- First Man
4. Hank Corwin- Vice
5. Barry Alexander Brown- BlacKkKlansman

Other Possibilities

6. Yorgos Mavropsaridis- The Favourite
7. John Ottman- Bohemian Rhapsody
8. Michael P. Shawver and Debbie Berman- Black Panther
9. Patrick J. Don Vito- Green Book
10. Christopher Tellefsen- A Quiet Place
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Best Sound Editing

1. First Man
2. A Quiet Place
3. Black Panther
4. Mission: Impossible- Fallout
5. Roma

Other Possibilities

6. Ready Player One
7. Aquaman
8. A Star Is Born
9. Incredibles 2
10. Bohemian Rhapsody
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Best Sound Mixing

People who added this item 427 Average listal rating (311 ratings) 7.1 IMDB Rating 7.6
1. A Star Is Born
2. First Man
3. A Quiet Place
4. Black Panther
5. Bohemian Rhapsody

Other Possibilities

6. Mary Poppins Returns
7. Mission: Impossible- Fallout
8. Roma
9. Ready Player One
10. Avengers: Infinity War
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Best Makeup & Hairstyling

People who added this item 33 Average listal rating (23 ratings) 7 IMDB Rating 7.3

1.

Vice
Winner.

2.

Stan & Ollie
Many see it as a longshot, but the formula of famous performers playing old-timey famous performers is tried and true. Only Vice is a lock here, but I feel decent about this film's chances.

3.

Mary Queen of Scots
British royalty is a really hot kink for the makeup branch, and famous people playing them is enough to send them over the edge.

Other Possibilities


4.

Black Panther
Could easily overtake #2 or #3, and has clearly got a lot of support. That said, comic book movies, even beloved ones, often have a hard time making the cut here, with only six ever making the cut. Marvel, in particular, has only managed one nomination (Guardians of the Galaxy). Could go either way.

5.

Bohemian Rhapsody


6.

Border


7.

Suspiria
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Best Visual Effects

People who added this item 762 Average listal rating (558 ratings) 7.4 IMDB Rating 8.9

1.

Avenger: Infinity War
BAFTA and Critics' Choice nominations, and it scored the most nominations with the Visual Effects Society; locked for a nomination.

2.

Black Panther
The snubs by the Visual Effects Society, where it received no nominations, were pretty substantial, but it's the only genuine BP contender that made the shortlist; i.e. it'll be in, an could still win.

3.

Ready Player One
Locked for a nomination.

4.

First Man
BAFTA, Critics' Choice, and VES nominations (Supporting Visual Effects category there, but there's usually at least one from that category that gets tipped by Oscar); it's scored the precursors necessary to get a nomination. That said, subtler work has been, as of late, shunned in favor of more V/FX heavy films. I still think it'll be in, but don't be surprised to see it miss.

5.

Solo: A Star Wars Story
While it hasn't been much of a player this season, Solo is still a Star Wars film, and only one Star Wars film has missed a Visual Effects nomination (Revenge of the Sith). It scored big nominations with the VES, and it's other main Disney competitor, Mary Poppins, was snubbed there and at the BAFTAs. More a gut feeling, but this fifth spot (and even the fourth on) has several legitimate contenders.

Other Possibilities


6.

Mary Poppins Returns


7.

Christopher Robin


8.

Welcome to Marwen


9.

Ant-Man and the Wasp


10.

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
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Predicted # of Nominations (Min. 2)
Black Panther: 10
A Star Is Born: 10
The Favourite: 9
Roma: 9
First Man: 7
Vice: 7
BlacKkKlansman: 6
Bohemian Rhapsody: 4
Green Book: 4
If Beale Street Could Talk: 4
Mary Poppins Returns: 4
Can You Ever Forgive Me?: 3
A Quiet Place: 3
Cold War: 2
First Reformed: 2
RBG: 2

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