2021 Emmy Nominations Predictions

1.

After years playing the bridesmaid, The Crown appears ready to ascend to bride. Even if this had been a normal year, the show's fourth season would likely be a major player. This Covid-impacted year; it won every major guild award in sight. It's in the top spot. I wouldn't call it the runaway favorite (the. monarchy isn't so hot these days), but it has to be #1.

2.

After a surprise nomination last year, The Mandalorian looks poised to break out even further this year. If it can score writing and/or directing noms, it could contend for the prize.

3.

A debut phenomenon that scored nominations at all the key guilds (sans WGA). It's a major player that scratches that Downton Abbey itch voters have had for the last five years.

4.

With a genuine comeback season that saw the series winning back critics and viewers, The Handmaid's Tale should have no trouble scoring it's fourth straight nomination, and possibly competing in a few key races.

5.

Though it came out a year ago, Lovecraft did well at all of the major guilds (sans DGA), and is HBO's most likely contender (you'd have to go back to 2008, the year after The Sopranos ended, to find a year that HBO didn't have at least one nominee here); i.e. it's probably safe, despite it's age and cancellation.

6.

Pose missed last year, but that was a very crowded field and it's second season had been over a year old by the time nominations came out. By contrast, this is a slim year (nine legitimate contenders for eight spots, with a couple longshots/wildcards), and it's season ended during voting. Should be in.

7.

I am almost certain that these last two spots will be occupied by some combination of The Boys, Perry Mason and This Is Us. Which two, I'm less certain of. Of the bunch, I feel, weirdly (considering it's subject matter and brashness), safest with The Boys. It's a hit commercially and critically, and it's Amazon's only regular series contender, in both Drama and Comedy.

8.

I honestly had Perry Mason here, until a last minute switch. While I expect it to score the more noteworthy nominations, and make a killing at the Creative Arts Emmys, Mason came out a while ago and, while drew more acclaim as the season went along, left some cold. While This Is Us is old, and missed last year (though that can be attributed to a murderer's row of contenders more than critical derision), it's still something of a fallback, sentimental pick.

Other Possibilities

9.

10.

11.

1.

At this point, it seems like the guaranteed winner.

2.

A surprise hit with the guilds, The Flight Attendant should be a lock.

3.

The only remaining holdover from last year. Not necessarily a lock but, with this being it's last season, probably in.

4.

A late-breaking player, Hacks near-universal praise and beloved star make this a strong player.

5.

A surprise writing nominee two years ago, Pen15 has a strong chance to build to a series nomination with more visibility, stronger reviews and, most helpfully, an exceedingly depleted field.

6.

After those five, things get very murky. Most have Black-ish making it's way back in, or Master of None coming back after a long hiatus (and a drastically different series), or even Zoey's Infinite Playlist leaping in for it's last season (thus far). Those are safe picks, and I could see any of those easily making it in, but I think each have too many drawbacks. Outside of it's lead stars, Black-ish hasn't been in the conversation for a while, and it's been out of the loop for the last two ceremonies. Master of None came back a different series, and the response was not as strong as it's original two seasons (most people, from what I've read, found it monotonous and slow). Zoey is a wildcard; I think it might have a stronger shot than the two above, but I'm also not sure whether the Academy cares about it.

Who, then, do I have in the last three spots? Of the bunch, I have the strongest gut sense with Cobra Kai. The reviews were solid, but the impact was drastic. It became one of the biggest hits of the last year, a year where most have been in their homes consuming content. I think that visibility, the quality, and the dearth of legitimate contenders will get it in.

7.

After that, Girls5Eva seems to have a decent shot. While the Peacock brand doesn't instill me with confidence, the show is just the kind of ridiculous, joke-dense comedy that producer Tina Fey always does well with here. That straight-comedy part is quite a boost here; they always do well here and over the past year, in particular, people have needed a good laugh.

8.

Is it a longshot? Is it being undervalued? I don't know. All I know is that this is a slimmer year for this category, and Mythic Quest is a critically acclaimed sleeper that has slowly become beloved. I think that cult adoration, a much more visible second season (those pandemic specials helped), and a stronger push from Apple (not to mention the growing brand, thank to the #1 hit above) will score it a well-deserved nomination.

Other Possibilities

9.

10.

11.

1.

Likely still the winner, but Mare's certainly surging lately.

2.

The hit Spring spoiler; Mare is a very viable contender here. HBO's scored here 7 times since 2010, and winners here tend to be late-premiering.

3.

Had a strong run during guild season (PGA and SAG are telling), and critical acclaim to boot. Plus, it helps that it was, arguably, the show that took down the HFPA (it's snub there started the landslide); notoriety like that helps, big time (HBO backing doesn't hurt, either).

4.

In a normal year, this would be a lock. Hell, it'd be the favorite to win. But Amazon really fucked up it's rollout. This isn't an easy show to watch, certainly not one to be binged (I can assure you that many voters haven't, and won't, watch it), so dumping it all at once wasn't smart. Weekly, it could've built buzz. As released, nobody wanted to sit through a 10 hr. slavery epic (one a week might've been more palatable to weaker-willed voters). I still think it gets in, but I would not be surprised if this is one of the biggest snubs of the season.

5.

This last one is tough, but I think WandaVision squeaks in. Small Axe was acclaimed, and will likely show up in other spots, but I think most will have a hard time with putting it here. While Anthology series have been added to the title, Axe is, essentially, five films. They do have a tethered plot point, the lives of West Indian immigrants in London from the 1960s to the 1980s, but the films themselves feel so substantive, that many may see this as a cheat, believing that they simply should've been submitted to TV Movie, and pass it over in favor of a more complete story. Though it's ending received a divided reception, and Marvel is an unknown property here, WandaVision is reasonably distinct, approaching it's comic book story in a very unique way that engrossed viewers, even if some of those viewers were left wanting in the end. It's very close (they could both leapfrog Underground Railroad, too).

Other Possibilities

6.

7.

It's a smaller contender, but it was very well-received. It's the kind of indie daring that could very easily surprise here.

8.

Did well with the guilds, but 2020 was slim pickings, and the show ended terribly. It doesn't help that Mare has stolen most of it's thunder.

9.

It's got the odds' on favorite for Actor, so it has a shot at sneaking it. It'll be tough though.

10.

The first two seasons got in, but nobody seems to care about this. It might squeak a few acting nods, but I can't see it making it in here.

1.

I'm not going to rundown this category beyond this. The last year has rendered most films TV Movies, so this category feels fairly neutered. Of what's left, these five seem fairly safe.

2.

3.

4.

5.

Other Possibilities

6.

7.

8.

9.

10.

1.

Emma Corrin- The CrownA breakout performance that is sure to be nominated, Corrin is the early favorite to win her first.

2.

Olivia Colman- The CrownThough, considering the last actress to play the queen won for her final season, maybe Colman will get a going away present.

3.

Elisabeth Moss- The Handmaid's TaleAfter falling out in a very competitive class last year, Moss should be able to sail back in. It's a slimmer year here, and Handmaid's had, what many considered, a resurgent season.

4.

Uzo Aduba- In TreatmentI'm not sure that In Treatment is on anyone's radar this year; a reboot of a series that wasn't the biggest hit, which, itself, has not been the biggest hit. Aduba, however, is a beloved figure with the TV academy, winning three times, including last year. I wouldn't say she's a lock, but she's likely in.

5.

Jurnee Smollett- Lovecraft CountryAfter those top four, there are a few major contenders. That said, there are fewer here than a few categories, certainly less than this category last year. Of the bunch, Smollett seems the safest. While I'm worried that Lovecraft may fall out in spots, I think the fact that it scored at all of the major guilds (sans PGA), and Smollett's been working for a long time without nominations, means the she and the series will have staying power.

6.

Mj Rodriguez- PoseThe possibilities are always pretty endless for nominations, but I'd say this last spot (or last two spots) comes down to five women; Aya Cash, Phoebe Dynevor, Mandy Moore, Sarah Paulson and Mj Rodriguez. Cash and Moore are more longshots. I'm not certain that The Boys is going to break through, and even if it does I think it'll go the way of The Mandalorian last year (i.e. no major nods outside of series, but several creative arts nominations). Moore was nominated two years ago, but fell out last year in a very competitive category. If she was going to make it back in, this'd be the year, but she was largely absent for the series' fifth season; i.e. possible, but unlikely. Paulson is a beloved, perennial nominee when it comes to the TV academy, and could very well find herself in a regular series category for the first time. I don't see it though; Ratched came out a while ago, longer than all but one of the actresses above (Lovecraft premiered last August), and reviews were not positive (personally, I'd call it shit), not even uniformly for her performance (mostly positive but, for her, that's surprising).

That leaves me with Dynevor and Rodriguez. Nominally, Dynevor's got the hotter series, and period dramas usually hit acting categories hard. Plus, she's a breakout player, which usually goes well. What keeps me from putting her in is the fact that even as the series has surprised in precursors, she's never been in the conversation much. While her performance was well-received, much of the conversation has been about her costars (Regé-Jean Page, in particular, burst out). Rodriguez, in contrast, has often been mentioned with her costars, and rose to the status of lead on Pose more than ever this year. That, coupled with the possibility of landmark nomination, is why I'm going with her. Plus, because the series came out recently, she has the fresher performance. Now watch me be wrong.

Other Possibilities

7.

Phoebe Dynevor- Bridgerton

8.

Sarah Paulson- Ratched

9.

Mandy Moore- This Is Us

10.

Aya Cash- The Boys

1.

Jason Sudeikis- Ted LassoHe's winning.

2.

Michael Douglas- The Kominsky MethodSeems pretty safe. It's the show's last season, and he's one of the few holdovers from last year.

3.

Anthony Anderson- Black-ishHe just keeps getting nominated. In a slighter year than usual, it would really surprise if he was snubbed.

4.

Ted Danson- Mr. MayorAfter those top three, there are no holdovers left. The rest of the field is, primarily, filled with old favorites in new roles. Danson seems the most likely of the group. While Mr. Mayor wasn't beloved, he is (he's the most nominated actor here, ever).

5.

Ralph Macchio- Cobra KaiMost have Kenan Thompson, and he's probably a safer bet. I just don't think that that series has the heft, despite Thompson becoming a well-regarded figure within the TV academy. Who then do you slot in in this slim year. Daniel-san! Macchio's paid his dues, and Cobra Kai was a major hit this year (which, as mentioned, is why I think it'll do well this year). His costar Zabka could also surprise, though I think someone who's been more visible over the years, like Macchio, will get the tip. Also in contention for the last spot (or last two); Rob McElhenney for, what I believe will be a series nominee, Mythic Quest (I think that'll be more a supporting player than his lead work); William H. Macy, who could get a goodbye nod for Shameless. Maybe even Alan Tudyk, who would be a fun surprise for Resident Alien.

Other Possibilities

6.

Kenan Thompson- Kenan

7.

William H. Macy- Shameless

8.

William Zabka- Cobra Kai

9.

Rob McElhenney- Mythic Quest

10.

Alan Tudyk- Resident Alien

1.

Anya Taylor-Joy- The Queen's GambitStill the favorite, but Winslet's is making a strong run at it.

2.

Kate Winslet- Mare of EasttownCame in at just the right time, could easily take her second.

3.

Michaela Coel- I May Destroy YouA consistent nominee in the winter, and early spring this time around, Coel looks like a lock.

4.

Elizabeth Olsen- WandaVisionI could, quite easily, see WandaVision getting snubbed a lot come nomination morning, but I think Olsen should be safe if that happens. Even people who found the series too opaque and/or unsatisfying are often ready to praise the actress, who consistently elevated every scene throughout. Not a lock, but it would be a bit surprising to see her miss out.

5.

Cynthia Erivo- Genius: ArethaEh, probably. She's respected, and she did well in the role, based on a real person. If Underground Railroad had hit bigger, I'd give Mbedu a stronger shot here. That said, even if that does do well, it's not a show built on a lead performance (or characters, even; Barry Jenkins and DP James Laxton are the stars), whereas my five predicted nominees are (even WandaVision is, really, a showcase for Olsen).

Other Possibilities

6.

Thuso Mbedu- The Underground Railroad

7.

Nicole Kidman- The UndoingSAG nominee who's won this category before; again, Mare stole this one's thunder, and this category seems too loaded.

8.

Danielle Brooks- Mahalia

1.

Josh O'Connor- The CrownAfter missing in supporting last year, O'Connor jumps to lead with a stellar season that saw him winning all but one major precursor (he lost SAG to Jason Bateman, but he's ineligible this year). The early favorite.

2.

Regé-Jean Page- BridgertonPage's smoldering, dashing work was a big part of Bridgerton's success, so much so that many are worried how the series will fare without him next season, and he scored several precursor nominations (including a very important SAG nod). He'll be in.

3.

Billy Porter- PoseHe won for the first season and was nominated for the second; it tracks that he'd make it in for the finale, especially in a slim year like this.

4.

Matthew Rhys- Perry MasonHe's a recent winner back with HBO's strongest shot at a nomination. While the series could miss overall here, Rhys was acclaimed in the titular role. Enough so to warrant this prediction.

5.

Sterling K. Brown- This Is UsEven if the show doesn't make series, or if none of the other actors get nominated, I'd still wager that Brown gets his fifth nomination here. He had some of the strongest material he's had in years, he's beloved by the TV academy, and this is a slim year. Should be in.

6.

Jonathan Majors- Lovecraft Country#6 could go a few ways. Majors is the safest bet; in a likely series nominee that just got cancelled, it's the only chance they'll have to recognize him for role that's aided his breakout (he's going on to great things), as well as just a terrific performance in it's own right. It's possible, though, that Mando love will propel Pedro Pascal to his first nomination. If he does get in, for only two onscreen appearances in season 2, it would be fairly stunning, and signs that this is a truly slim category and/or The Mandalorian may have the juice to win drama series. There's also Justin Theroux for The Mosquito Coast (I'm not sure enough people are watching it), Joseph Fiennes for The Handmaid's Tale (possible, though repellent characters often have a hard time making the cut), Milo Ventimiglia (should've submitted in supporting, if not guest), Antony Starr (totally deserving, but won't) and Anthony Mackie (I'm just not hot on The Falcon and Winter Soldier's prospects overall).

Other Possibilities

7.

Pedro Pascal- The Mandalorian

8.

Joseph Fiennes- The Handmaid's Tale

9.

Milo Ventimiglia- This Is Us

10.

Justin Theroux- The Mosquito Coast

11.

Antony Starr- The Boys

12.

Anthony Mackie- The Falcon and the Winter Soldier

1.

Kaley Cuoco- The Flight AttendantToo early to call her the favorite (Jean Smart's coming in fast), the Cuoco seems like a given to score her first nomination.

2.

Jean Smart- HacksAs mentioned above, she's a beloved previous winner likely to score two nominations this time out; a major potential winner here.

3.

Tracee Ellis Ross- Black-ishAfter missing a few years back, Ross made it back in last year and, with this category being in flux, seems to be a safe bet to stay this year.

4.

Maya Erksine- Pen15After those three, there are a lot of contenders for these last two spots. Allison Janney could pop back in for the final season of Mom, but I'm not sure they remember the show at this point. Jane Levy could get a goodbye present for the underseen Zoey's Extraordinary Playlist, but I'm not as high on it's chances as many. Lena Waithe's got Master of None, but it doesn't seem to have much momentum. That leads me to a couple of choices, the safest of which I feel is Erksine at #4. Pen15 looks to break out this year, and I think Erksine has a solid shot. It's a smart, odd performance that should sway voters. Her costar Konkle is terrific, too, but Erksine's is the more outwardly comedic of the two, so I think she'd get the tip.

5.

Renée Elise Goldsberry- Girls5EvaI think Girls5Eva is going to do okay this year. It's the most purely comedic newbie and, despite the stellar work by a few series merging genres, funny usually wins out. With that in mind, I think the performers of the series will get a boost, chief among them Goldsberry. She's been doing strong work for a long time, and coupled with her potential nom for Hamilton, and she gets some ridiculous things to do in the Peacock series. It's very close, but I have a feeling she make it in.

Other Possibilities

6.

Allison Janney- Mom

7.

Jane Levy- Zoey's Extraordinary Playlist

8.

Lena Waithe- Master of None

9.

Anna Konkle- Pen15

10.

Cristin Milioti- Made for Love

1.

Ethan Hawke- The Good Lord BirdI wouldn't say he's the favorite, but it's such a fiery performance that it would be a big surprise if he missed a nomination.

2.

Hugh Grant- The UndoingLikely one of the few spots that The Undoing can contend, Grant should make it in here. It's a slim category, and his wormy performance was one of the few bright spots in the series. He's been nominated everywhere he needs to have.

3.

Paul Bettany- WandaVisionAfter the top two, there are a few ways that this category could go. Of them, Bettany seems the most likely. WandaVision is a series contender, he's strong in it, and he's not been nominated before. That said, he's also got his performance in Uncle Frank submitted. I could see that one getting in (it's the more traditional award-contender), are both splitting and him missing. Hell, I wouldn't be too terribly surprised if he got both in. It's that kind of year here.

4.

Lin-Manuel Miranda- HamiltonProbably, as long as the In the Heights controversy doesn't hinder voters. Otherwise, he's done so well over the years at the Emmys and this category is so thin that it seems too easy.

5.

Leslie Odom Jr.- HamiltonThe consensus seems to be that Jeff Daniels will take the fifth spot, with Ewan McGregor gaining steam. I could see either, or both, taking it, but I'm not sure about the passion. Halston was poorly received, and The Comey Rule had a very mixed reaction. The latter, in particular, felt irrelevant during the election cycle it rushed to be released during; now that the Trump administration is over, it feels like something less than an afterthought. Odom, in contrast, is coming off of two Oscar nominations, in a hit film, for a performance that he's already won a Tony for. I think those factors will work for him here.

Other Possibilities

6.

Ewan McGregor- HalstonHe is playing a real person though, and the Ryan Murphy brand is strong he. Probably has a stronger shot than I'm giving him credit for.

7.

Jeff Daniels- The Comey Rule

8.

Bryan Cranston- Your Honor

9.

Joel Edgerton- The Underground Railroad

10.

Chris Rock- Fargo

1.

Gillian Anderson- The CrownThe frontrunner.

2.

Helena Bonham Carter- The CrownProbably not winning, but a safe bet in a scattered field.

3.

Samira Wiley- The Handmaid's TaleWiley's been nominated, in some capacity, for every season of Handmaid's up to this point, including jumping back in in a very competitive field last year. Seems fairly safe.

4.

Ann Dowd- The Handmaid's TaleAfter falling out for the show's third season, Dowd had a much more substantive fourth. Couple that with the a resurgent season, and add a transitional category to the mix (six of the eight nominated women from last year are ineligible this time), and Dowd seems like a solid bet.

5.

Wunmi Mosaku- Lovecraft CountryWhile the leads' prospect may been looking dicey, Lovecraft Country's supporting players should manage to make the cut. Mosaku has been popping up all over lately (including, and most importantly, currently being seen on Loki), with her scene-stealing work on Lovecraft her biggest break yet. While I could see her being snubbed (there's a lot of talent in this field), eight spots and a breakout performance give me confidence.

6.

Tatiana Maslany- Perry MasonAfter the first five, things get very interesting. There are easy picks, like Yvonne Strahovski (not sure she had enough to do this time out) or Cynthia Nixon (probably the best things about a very bad show, but still a bad show that was released a while ago to little fanfare), breakouts looking to bank on the success of other projects (Emerald Fennell won an Oscar writing Promising Young Woman), or returning favorites in new projects. That's where Maslany fits in. I could see Perry Mason exploding with a glut of nods, or being passed over completely. In any regard, I do see Maslany sneaking in. She managed three nominations for Orphan Black, of which none were predicted (including the year she won), she did compelling work in the series, and she's one of, maybe, three HBO contenders, a network that has thrived here over the past few years (10 nominees in the past three years). Maybe.

7.

Madeline Brewer- The Handmaid's TaleMy biggest wild card here. Brewer's been doing exceptional on the series since the start, but season four saw her have her most screen time, and she thrived. Probably going on a ledge here, but I smell a surprise (or maybe I'm just having a stroke).

8.

Nicola Coughlan- BridgertonWith such an expansive cast, it seems surprising that Bridgerton has so few contenders. It seems, primarily, down to Adjoa Andoh and Coughlan. Both could make, neither could; I could definitely see either scenario, or Andoh making it instead, but Coughlan's role was the most prominent to the story, and I think voters will remember that.

Other Possibilities

9.

Yvonne Strahovski- The Handmaid's Tale

10.

Cynthia Nixon- Ratched

11.

Aunjanue Ellis- Lovecraft Country

12.

Emerald Fennell- The Crown

13.

Dominique Jackson- Pose

14.

Indya Moore- Pose

15.

Adjoa Andoh- Bridgerton

1.

Kenan Thompson- Saturday Night LiveIn such a wild, scattered category, Thompson seems the most obvious nominee.

2.

Bowen Yang- Saturday Night LiveYang broke out big this season on SNL, and I think voters will see that.

3.

Brett Goldstein- Ted LassoTed Lasso has about four legitimate contenders here, and Goldstein seems the most likely of the bunch as the volatile aging footballer with a heart of gold.

4.

Nick Mohammed- Ted LassoHe's not too high on many lists, but I see Mohammed's Nate the Great making the cut. It, like most on the show, is breakout work, and I think the underdog spirit of the character will make him a sentimental pick.

5.

F. Murray Abraham- Mythic QuestAfter those top four, there are a lot of contenders. I'm going with my wildest at #5 with Abraham. If I think Mythic Quest has the goods to make in series, then I think it can make a few other surprises. I'll probably miss big here, but Abraham is an Oscar winner who managed to score a couple of nominations for Homeland that were more like extended cameos; i.e. he's respected, and I think he'll have the exposure with the series.

6.

Alex Newell- Zoey's Extraordinary PlaylistWhile I'm mostly down on Zoey's Emmy chances, I think Newell is it's best chance. They're a breakout character on a critical favorite, in a transitional year for the category (Thompson is the only returning nominee from last year). It would, also, be the chance for voters to make history (Newell is gender-nonconforming), something they may feel keen on after the tough time awards groups have been having lately in regard to diversity. A solid possibility.

7.

Jeremy Swift- Ted LassoAt #7, there are about a dozen potential contenders. Most have Michiel Huisman and Brendan Hunt in here, and in much safer positions. Huisman's odds are, I think, being overinflated, with his position as one of the only male cast members on The Flight Attendant (his costar, T.R. Knight, is also a viable contender, but has few scenes that aren't wholly dramatic, which puts him in a disadvantage in a category that favors funny scene-stealers), and his value to the plot (which is substantial, but his scenes are never particularly necessary). Hunt is too, being involved in a hit series. His understated peculiarities make him more likely here, but I think his costars above will pop with voters more (his likely nominations elsewhere, for the series overall and writing, also lessens the immediacy for a nomination here. With that in mind, I'll take Jeremy Swift. He's a consistent scene-stealer on a beloved series, one with sever major player here.

Other Possibilities

8.

Brendan Hunt- Ted Lasso

9.

Michiel Huisman- The Flight Attendant

10.

Ray Romano- Made for Love

11.

Pete Davidson- Saturday Night Live

12.

Laurence Fishburne- Black-ish

13.

Paul Reiser- The Kominsky Method

14.

Danny Pudi- Mythic Quest

1.

Kathryn Hahn- WandaVisionEven if WandaVision misses everywhere else, I think Hahn is pretty safe. She's well-liked, and her character reveal lead to one of the most memorable moments of the TV year.

2.

Jean Smart- Mare of EasttownShe's having a renaissance, and Mare is going to do well. Solid.

3.

Marielle Heller- The Queen's GambitQueen's strongest contender here, Heller has the respect for here performance, as well as buzz for her filmmaker-turned-performer narrative (she's directed terrific films A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Can You Ever Forgive Me? and Diary of a Teenage Girl).

4.

Julianne Nicholson- Mare of EasttownA late breaker here, as her work in the final episodes of the series left a searing impression. She's been doing strong work for a long time without plaudits; I think she's due.

5.

Letitia Wright- Small AxeA previous nominee with a strong performance, Wright seems like a solid bet for a nomination, as long as people forget some of the Covid conspiracy stuff she posted on Twitter.

6.

Weruche Opia- I May Destroy YouAfter those top five, this category gets pretty thin. Renée Elise Goldsberry could score for her work in Hamilton; she's got much more visibility thanks to possibly nominated work on Girls5Eva, Hamilton was a hit, and this is a Tony-winning performance. My feeling though, is that Opia's in the more likely Emmy player, and this category likes to take a chance on more unknown names. Teyonah Parris is another possibility, but I don't think WandaVision has the juice to score two nominations here (plus, Hahn's going to take the brunt of the show's buzz), as are Jessie Buckley for Fargo (solid, but in a down season and a rather one-note character), Moses Ingram for The Queen's Gambit (strong, but probably not enough material), Phillipa Soo for Hamilton (Tony-nominated, but her costar's taking most of the buzz) and Lydia West for It's a Sin (completely deserving, but I'm guessing too under seen).

Other Possibilities

7.

Renée Elise Goldsberry- Hamilton

8.

Teyonah Parris- WandaVision

9.

Moses Ingram- The Queen's Gambit

10.

Jessie Buckley- Fargo

11.

Phillipa Soo- Hamilton

12.

Lydia West- It's a Sin

1.

Michael K. Williams- Lovecraft CountryEven if Lovecraft falls out everywhere else, Williams has become such a presence at the Emmys over the past few years that it would be a bit of a surprise if he isn't nominated. Might even win.

2.

Bradley Whitford- The Handmaid's TaleLikely safe.

3.

Tobias Menzies- The CrownHis role in the fourth season was, essentially, an extended cameo, but his snub from last year, this category's slimness, and Prince Philip should secure Menzies a nomination.

4.

John Lithgow- Perry Mason

5.

Giancarlo Esposito- The MandalorianAfter sneaking in here last year for Better Call Saul, as well as a surprise guest actor nod for this Disney+ hit, Esposito is poised to score another nomination for his villainous role. Anybody who can threaten baby Yoda without breaking deserves all the accolades.

6.

Jonathan Bailey- BridgertonAfter those top five, there are, as always, a lot of options. Bailey seems to sit firmly in the mix; he's not too big a longshot, but not a total lock either. He's a scene-stealer in a crowded ensemble, poised for an expanded role in the series' second season. Appears to be an okay pick.

7.

Wyatt Russell- The Falcon and the Winter SoldierAfter those six, I'm taking a couple of longshots. With eight slots available, I think a few surprises are in store, one of which could be Russell. Many were left with conflicting emotions on the character, which should be considered positively towards him; he turned a standard villain into something a bit murkier, leading many to feel outright hatred and/or empathy. It's solid work that, I believe, will be remembered.

8.

Justin Hartley- This Is UsWith eight spots, I'm going with a longshot in Hartley. He's been snubbed since the second season, this is a weird category, and This Is Us has a weird way of sneaking actors in here when we aren't looking. Chris Sullivan, who was nominated a couple of years ago, could sneak back in, but voters have always spread the love with this show in terms of the cast members they nominated (except for Sterling K. Brown, who will probably end up nominated for every season), and his character's foibles this season weren't the most well-liked (there's a reason we can buy the finale's twist ending).

There are, to be expected, a litany of other options. Most have In Treatment's John Benjamin Hickey and Anthony Ramos in the nominees circle. I'm just not buying that show's love this time out. Despite acclaim for both performers, and the original incarnation's knack for scoring supporting players nominations, I'm just not feeling the heat here (though I do think Ramos has a shot at a "breakout" nod, despite In the Heights's box office failure). There's also O-T Fagbenle, who really upped his game for The Handmaid's Tale's fourth season, Daniel Brühl for The Falcon and the Winter Soldier, who's scene-stealer work could jump him in ahead of his costar Russell (the dancing, in particular, was one of the most memorable moments of TV this year), and Carl Lumbly for TFATWS.

Other Possibilities

9.

Anthony Ramos- In Treatment

10.

O-T Fagbenle- The Handmaid's Tale

11.

John Benjamin Hickey- In Treatment

12.

Chris Sullivan- This Is Us

13.

Daniel Brühl- The Falcon and the Winter Soldier

14.

Carl Lumbly- The Falcon and the Winter Soldier

1.

Hannah Waddingham- Ted LassoLock.

2.

Kate McKinnon- Saturday Night LiveAnother lock.

3.

Juno Temple- Ted LassoShould be safe. Waddingham is the clear frontrunner of the two, but Temple's doing strong work and the show is beloved.

4.

Hannah Einbinder- HacksDid breakout work on a very well-received series, holding her own against an Emmy favorite. If the women of SNL and Ted Lasso split enough votes, she could surprise.

5.

Rosie Perez- The Flight AttendantWhile I'm not sure it'll have the heat to score too many acting nods outside of lead actress, Perez seems solid. While she doesn't have the most to do in the series, it's more broadly comedic work, and she has enough industry respect that I think she should find a spot in here.

6.

Cecily Strong- Saturday Night LiveThere are a lot of contenders here, but Strong seems the safest. While I initially didn't have her in, she had, yet another, strong season, and the buzz surrounding her possible departure should influence voters.

7.

Aidy Bryant- Saturday Night LiveIn a scattered category with only a couple of fresh faces, voters typically go with favorites. Though she hasn't been nominated in a couple of years, SNL women have been doing very well over the past few years, and with speculation that this could be her final year as well, I think they'll be generous. It may also help that there doesn't seem to be a true consensus of who else could get in. There are still two other Flight Attendant contenders, Zosia Mamet and Michelle Gomez, that could make it in, though, as mentioned, I don't know how much juice the series will have for its actors.

Kathleen Turner could score a nomination for The Kominsky Method but, again, I don't know if enough people will have seen her (I think that series' nominations will be more checklist that passion). Naomi Ackie got great notices for Master of None bit, as mentioned earlier, I don't know if there's much passion for this series (especially this year, considering it's mainly a drama series). Then there's Paula Pell, who could make the cut for her work on Girls5Eva. I had here in late in my predictions, but I just don't know how much clout Peacock will have here. While I think it can the series in, and maybe one other performer, I'm just not certain that this'll be a breakout.

Other Possibilities

8.

Paula Pell- Girls5Eva

9.

Zosia Mamet- The Flight Attendant

10.

Kathleen Turner- The Kominsky Method

11.

Michelle Gomez- The Flight Attendant

12.

Naomi Ackie- Master of None

1.

John Boyega- Small AxeA rather thin field this time out, Boyega seems to be the strong favorite.

2.

Bill Camp- The Queen's GambitScored a SAG nod for just one episode; very strong contender.

3.

Donald Sutherland- The UndoingHe's highly respected, had some fun monologues, and is in a thin field of contenders. Should be safe.

4.

Daveed Diggs- HamiltonSAG nominee in the role(s) that won a Tony for. If this was a tougher field, he might be on the edge. As is, I think he'll make it.

5.

Evan Peters- Mare of EasttownAfter a decade of being snubbed for American Horror Story, Peters has his strongest chance yet of scoring a nomination. These last two spots are tough. Peters, I think, has the edge over the rest field. Mare has more momentum than Genius, The Good Lord Bird or The Underground Railroad, and Peters had a prominent role, one that factored to one of the most heartbreaking moments of the season.

6.

Courtney B. Vance- Genius: ArethaAs I mentioned earlier, nobody really cares about Genius, which, in theory, should give other contenders a better shot. People love Courtney B. Vance, though, and I think that'll be enough. Harper has a solid shot, but he doesn't show up until late in Underground, and, as stated above, I'm not sure a lot of voters made it that far. Essiedu has a shot, but I'm curious to see if Destroy You will play well outside of craft and Coel's lead performance. Johnson gave a breakout performance, but I'm not sure if Good Lord Bird has the heat to make it outside of a thin lead actor field. Brodie-Sangster could surprise, but I think he'd have a better shot at a coattail nod if Queen's Gambit hadn't been released so long ago. Lotta options here.

Other Possibilities

7.

William Jackson Harper- The Underground Railroad

8.

Brendan Gleeson- The Comey RuleHe's one of the consensus six, but I just think Comey Rule will be seen as a Trump era relic, a bit of political dress-up that'll be lost to the ages. He's definitely a strong player, but I don't see it

9.

Paapa Essiedu- I May Destroy You

10.

Thomas Brodie-Sangster- The Queen's Gambit

11.

Joshua Caleb Johnson- The Good Lord Bird

12.

Glynn Turman- Fargo

1.

Benjamin Caron- The Crown: "Fairytale"#1 and #2 are fairly interchangeable. Both Crown submissions are in, though I'd expect them to cancel each other out for a win.

2.

Jessica Hobbs- The Crown: "War"

3.

Julie Anne Robinson- Bridgerton: "Diamond of the First Water"Of Bridgerton's two submissions, "Diamond" is the clear frontrunner. It's the series' pilot, and Robinson already scored a DGA nod. Only two of the DGA crop are eligible for this category, which is a very strong indicator for a nomination here (only three of the past 25 nominees haven't scored corresponding Emmy nominations). Likely.

4.

Elisabeth Moss- The Handmaid's Tale: "Testimony"After the top three, this category is awash with over submission. Even The Handmaid's Tale has that problem. It's mitigated, I believe, by the fact that it has a couple that are more memorable, Moss's included. Her name should carry weight, but the episode itself is a strong piece of directing (her one-take testimony is a combination of terrific acting and directing), and I think that the series will makes it's way back into the nominee's circle.

5.

Jon Favreau- The Mandalorian: "Chapter 9: The Marshal"The Mandalorian seems tailor made to sweep a directing category, but it submitted seven of it's eight season two episodes: i.e. a lot of split votes. I still think that Favreau's "The Marshal" should stand out though. He scored a DGA nod for his work, and the action is particularly big, especially the climax. Big, feature-level action often does well here (look at Game of Thrones 11 nominations), so I think he'll make it.

6.

Tim Van Patten- Perry Mason: "Chapter 2"Mason could miss everything and be totally forgotten by most voters. I doubt, however, that the directors' branch will forget Tim Van Patten, the second most nominated director ever in this category with nine nominations. He was nominated four times for Boardwalk Empire, (winning one) well after that show was a player overall), for the GOT pilot, and another four for The Sopranos. He's HBO's most probable player here, which should give him a lot of help; since 1999, The Sopranos' first year, HBO has only missed this category twice (2008 and 2009). Lovecraft Country should've been a player here, but they submitted half of their season; In Treatment was never a directing contender in it's original incarnation, it'd stun now. Euphoria could surprise, it's got one of it's two specials submitted. I'll believe that that one can compete here when I see it, though (wouldn't rule it out). Might be off on a ledge, but it seems highly possible.

7.

Kari Skogland- The Falcon and the Winter Soldier: "One World, One People"It took me a minute to come around to Skogland at #7. I'm still not 100% sold, but process of elimination gives her the edge. Originally, I had Liz Garbus's work on The Handmaid's Tale's finale "The Wilderness". While I still think it could make the cut, and even should, Handmaid's only managed more than one slot here once, in it's first season. It's also coming off a third season that saw it drop out of the category, meaning even getting one nominee in here is an uphill battle. And, like many series that I'll mention here, it submitted too many episodes, five of it's ten. Moss's name will pop out, but I'm not sure about the rest of the bunch.

The Mandalorian, as mentioned, submitted all but one of it's season two episodes, but that's only because Peyton Reid directed two (i.e. every director was submitted). While I think his finale, "Chapter 16: The Rescue", is probably the one that could make it alongside Favreau's presumed nominee (it's the finale, and there's a major, memorable cameo), it's also got to compete against a slew of other big episodes and directors (Dave Filoni, Bryce Dallas Howard, Robert Rodriguez; Hell, even Carl Weathers had an action-packed one). It'll be hard. So too will it be for any Lovecraft Country entry. Half of it's season is submitted, one that came out almost a year ago. I'd give the tip to pilot director Yann Demange or creator Misha Green for "Jig-a-Bobo", but it doesn't feel likely. The Boys submitted half of it's season, most of which, while great, don't stand out (maybe Alex Graves for the finale "What I Know").

Pose submitted three, about half of it's seven episode season, and could surprise (maybe Steven Canals' "Finale" or Janet Mock's "Something Old, Something New"), but I don't think any of the entries will be big enough to pop. Bridgerton had another submission, "Shock and Delight", but I'm not entirely sure it's got the heft to score two nods here. Is Ridley Scott a big enough name to overcome the weirdness of Raised by Wolves? Probably not.

Other Possibilities

8. Liz Garbus- The Handmaid's Tale: "The Wilderness"
9. Peyton Reid- The Mandalorian: "Chapter 16: The Rescue"
10. Bryce Dallas Howard- The Mandalorian: "Chapter 11: The Heiress"
11. Tom Verica- Bridgerton: "Shock and Delight"
12. Sam Levinson- Euphoria: "Trouble Don't Last Always"
13. Dave Filoni- The Mandalorian: "Chapter 13: The Jedi"
14. Robert Rodriguez- The Mandalorian: "Chapter 14: The Tragedy"

1.

Susanna Fogel- The Flight Attendant: "In Case of Emergency"DGA winner, and only submission for the series. DGA doesn't have as strong a record here as it does on the drama side, but Fogel's work is some of the most distinct in contention this year; big enough to see the work, and specific enough to see the vision. Should be in.

2.

MJ Delaney- Ted Lasso: "The Hope That Kills You"Ted Lasso submitted four episodes here. I don't think it'll get all of them; I think it'll get three of them in. It's a hit, the kind of critical/commercial hit that has everyone celebrating it. Putting all four in feels too gluttonous, though; as good as the show is, there's a lot of strong work in this category, and to give the whole thing over to one show (well, three, including the by-mandate three-camera studio sitcom), feels a bridge too far (it's only happened three times; M*A*S*H did it twice, while Curb Your Enthusiasm is the most recent example; those shows were breaking the formula, which is something that Ted Lasso, despite being wonderful, isn't doing). Of the submissions, "The Hope That Kills You" feels the safest. It was the show's first season finale, a DGA nominee, and probably the biggest episode of the show. Feels safe.

3.

Zach Braff- Ted Lasso: "Biscuits""Biscuits" was another DGA nominee, and Braff's name stands out as being the most well-known. "Biscuits", being the series' second episode, also starts to paint a picture of what the series will become (inexplicably, the pilot was not submitted). Probable.

4.

Declan Lowney- Ted Lasso: "Make Rebecca Great Again"If Tom Marshall would've just submitted the pilot episode, he'd be in. While "For the Children" is a strong episode, "Make Rebecca Great Again" features some of the most memorable moments of the series, and shows more directorial effort.

5.

Lucia Aniello- Hacks: "There Is No Line"Hacks made the very wise choice to just submit it's pilot here, one that should give it some legs (no vote splitting, and it's the pilot). Lasso could very well score four, or maybe even the big finale of Cobra Kai could make the cut (it, too, is that series only submission). Hacks, having aired most recently, should have the most juice of the bunch though (I'd considered Mythic Quest, but five submissions out of nine episodes makes it a hard sell).

6.

James Burrows- B Positive: "Pilot"Who fucking knows with the multi-cam spot. The Conners had a few. Maybe Mom's final season could sneak in. United States of Al? Burrows is the most nominated director here ever, so I'll just go with him. ???????????

Other Possibilities

7. Tom Marshall- Ted Lasso: "For the Children"
8. Josh Heald- Cobra Kai: "December 19"
9. Aziz Ansari- Master of None: "Chapter Four"
10. Sam Zvibleman- Pen15: "Opening Night"
11. Rob McElhenney- Mythic Quest: "Backstory!"
12. Mandy Moore- Zoey's Extraordinary Playlist: "Zoey's Extraordinary Double Date"

1.

Scott Frank- The Queen's GambitNo lengthy write-up necessary for this category. #1-3 are guaranteed locks, and #4 is close to being one.

2.

Barry Jenkins- The Underground Railroad

3.

Thomas Kail- Hamilton

4.

Craig Zobel- Mare of Easttown

5.

Matt Shakman- WandaVisionProbably, but I could see it getting written of as just another Marvel assembly line product (which would be highly dispiriting, considering it's one of the most original things they've ever put out). That said, Shakman puts in a lot of work here, switching up genres without losing the overall vision.

6.

Steve McQueen- Small AxeIt's a bit frenzied after those first four. Shakman seems solid, but could fall. #6, too, seems a bit wobbly. McQueen missed out on some key precursors, but I wonder if that has more to due with guild designations (i.e. is it film or television?). I have him in, mostly, because I can't really see what could knock him out. I think I May Destroy You could, but I wonder if the fact that it submitted two episodes will hurt it (though the one with creator Michaela Coel could easily slip in here). Susanne Bier is a previous winner here (for The Night Manager), and a DGA nominee to boot, but The Undoing has fallen off a lot since the Winter. It's a Sin feels unlikely here, though it could slip in somewhere else.

Other Possibilities

7. Sam Miller and Michaela Coel- I May Destroy You: "Ego Death"
8. Sam Miller- I May Destroy You: "Eyes Eyes Eyes Eyes"
9. Susanna Bier- The Undoing
10. Peter Hoar- It's a Sin
11. Alan Ball- Uncle Frank
12. Eugene Ashe- Sylvie's Love

1.

Peter Morgan- The Crown: "War"Winner.

2.

Chris Van Dusen- Bridgerton: "Diamond of the First Water"Only here because it's the series only submission.

3.

Sam Levinson & Hunter Schafer- Euphoria: "Fuck Anyone Who's Not a Sea Blob"I'll take a big swing with Euphoria. It's the shows only submission, and some of the sure thing series submitted too many episodes. This one should stand out.

4.

Dave Filoni- The Mandalorian: "Chapter 13: The Jedi"Three submissions for the series, and Filoni's seems the most likely.

5.

Ryan Murphy & Brad Falchuk & Steven Canals & Janet Mock & Our Lady J- Pose: "Finale"It's a pretty thin category. The Boys submitted three, which I'm guessing, more than other series here, will cancel each other out. Lovecraft Country's in a similar boat. Nominating "Finale" could be a nice going away gift.

6.

Bruce Miller- The Handmaid's Tale: "The Wilderness"The Handmaid's Tale submitted three episodes, and fell out of the category last year. Last year was tougher though, and "The Wilderness", the show's fourth season finale, is clearly the contender of the bunch.

Other Possibilities

7. Jon Favreau- The Mandalorian: "Chapter 16: The Rescue"
8. Rebecca Sonnenshine- The Boys: "What I Know"
9. Yahlin Chang- The Handmaid's Tale: "Home"
10. Rick Famuyiwa- The Mandalorian: "Chapter 15: The Believer"
11. Eric Tuchman & Aly Monroe- The Handmaid's Tale: "Progress"

1.

Lucia Aniello & Paul W. Downs & Jen Statsky- Hacks: "There Is No Line"Only submission for the series; their going for the crown.

2.

Jason Sudeikis & Bill Lawrence & Brendan Hunt & Joe Kelly- Ted Lasso: "Pilot"Two submission in this category makes it likely that both get in.

3.

Jason Sudeikis and Brendan Hunt & Joe Kelly- Ted Lasso: "Make Rebecca Great Again"

4.

Anna Konkle- Pen15: "Vendy Wiccany"Pen15 submitted two episodes this time around, and I think it's possible that both make it in. It scored a surprise nomination in a very crowded category two years ago. By contrast, this is a relatively slim category. The Flight Attendant submitted one, but I think it's thought of more as a directorial series. Pen15 submitted the pilot, but is it substantial enough? I don't think so, not with the heft of the contenders here. Does Master of None have this time out? Most consider it a meandering season; i.e. it likely has more of a shot in directing.

5.

Maya Erksine- Pen15: "Play"

6.

Craig Mazin- Mythic Quest: "Backstory!"I'm taking a wildcard with this last spot (I think, it could go to seven; I didn't read an accurate count) with "Backstory!". While Mythic Quest submitted four, I'm anticipating a jump this season, and writing is, usually, a place to put shows just breaking out. Of the submissions, Mazin's entry feels like the one to do it. He just won big for Chernobyl, and it's period setting sets it apart from the rest of the series. Again, a longshot.

Other Possibilities

7. Aziz Ansari & Lena Waithe- Master of None: "Moments in Love, Chapter 4"
8. Steve Yockey- The Flight Attendant: "In Case of Emergency"
9. Megan Ganz- Mythic Quest: "Please Sign Here"
10. Meredith Scardino- Girls5Eva: "Pilot"

1.

Michaela Coel- I May Destroy You#1-#3 are locks.

2.

Scott Frank- The Queen's Gambit

3.

Brad Inglesby- Mare of Easttown

4.

Barry Jenkins and Jacqueline Hoyt- The Underground Railroad: "Chapter 10: Mabel"Though The Underground Railroad was regarded much more for it's filmmaking than it's writing, this category gets very thin through a combination of too many submissions (WandaVision submitted eight of it's nine episodes) and/or lack of options. With this being the only other limited series contender possible for this category, it should find it's way in.

5.

Russell T. Davies- It's a SinAs mentioned above, this category gets thin after the top three, maybe four. Which, I believe, will give Davies his second nomination for writing. It a perfect world, where limited series was given the same amount of nominees as regular series (among other, better things; this would be a perfect world, after all), It's a Sin would be a stronger contender across the board. As is, writing is usually the category that gives nominations to smaller, more beloved fare.

Other Possibilities

6. Steve McQueen and Alastair Siddons- Small Axe: "Mangrove"
7. Steven McQueen and Courttia Newland- Small Axe: "Red, White and Blue"
8. Jac Shaeffer- WandaVision: "Filmed Before a Live Studio Audience"
9. Noah Hawley- Fargo: "Welcome to the Alternate Economy"
10. Mark Richard & Ethan Hawke- The Good Lord Bird: "Last Words"