I Thought You'd Be Bigger: Part 2

With Taylor Lautner's fame at an all-time high, I thought that it would be safe to assume that this one could crack $50-70mil.



Prediction: $50-70mil.
Actual: $28,087,155.

After a nearly ten year hiatus from the big screen, the American Pie gang returned solidly, but no spectacularly. The first three films grossed over $100mil. each, but then the straight-to-DVD movies came along and diminished the brand. I never thought that this one would make as much as the originals, but I thought it could get close.



Prediction: $70-85mil.
Actual: $56,758,835.

The trailers made a case for this being a fresh take on the ghost genre, but it turned out that the film's marketing team pulled a fast one and included either footage that would not be in the film, or just flat out lie. Moviegoing audiences do not like to be lied to.



Prediction: $25-35mil.
Actual: $4,930,798.

I don't think that I'm alone when I say that this was a sure-fire, guaranteed hit. Liam Neeson was still hot after the smash Taken, Bradley Cooper was just moving into the A-List after the success of The Hangover, and the trailers made sure that they showed off what audiences want most out of a summer movie, action. But, unfortunatley for the film, a fly found it's way into the ointment, and that fly's name was The Karate Kid.



Prediction: $125-160mil.
Actual: $77,222,099.

It expanded to wide release on January 5th, 2007, a weekend where the only opening competition Code Name: The Cleaner, Freedom Writers, and Happily N'Ever After. But this is a case where a couple of strong hold-overs continued to impress. Night at the Museum won the weekend with about $24mil, and The Pursuit of Happiness finishing in second with $12mil. This left Children of Men to third with $10mil. I guess around the holidays, people don't want to watch films about bleak, dystopian futures. Their loss, because this movie was superb. One of the many on this list that deserved more.



Prediction: $70-85mil.
Actual: $35,552,383.

The original Narnia is one of the biggest movies of all-time, so it seemed safe to bet on this one, but for some reason it did not reach its potential. Whether it was the competition from Iron Man or simply that audiences did not like the darker direction that the franchise was taking, this one didn't live up to the expectations.



Prediction: Anywhere between $200-300mil.
Actual: $141,621,490.

The attempt to cash-in on the Twilight Saga failed miserably, even though this film is better than most of those. Add in the built-in fanbase of the books, I thought this stood a decent chance.



Prediction: $60-90mil.
Actual: $13,869,515.

America made the right decision in 2008. I'm not talking about politics, I'm talking about not going to see Disaster Movie. This one was never going to be a goliath sized parody film like any of the Scary Movie installments, but the Friedberg/Seltzer team had carved out a niche, and had a solid fanbase. Their first three films, Date Movie, Epic Movie, and Meet the Spartans had all been profitable in the U.S., banking in the $39-50mil. range, but this one had a different studio backing it, leading to a poor marketing effort. It also didn't help that most of the films they were parodying were still in theaters, and obviously better choices.


^Looking in horror at the script^

Prediction: $40-55mil.
Actual: $14,190,901.

Early fan response led me to believe that this would be a hit, but it opened up on a very crowded weekend, and the marketing slowed down in the week leading up to the release.



Prediction: $50-70mil.
Actual: $13,414,714.

Even though it was an indie flick, I thought Will Ferrell's star power could bring in a decent gross. Sometimes indies are just indies, no matter who's in them.



Prediction: $10-20mil.
Actual: $2,711,643.

Animated films usually do well around the holidays, and Wes Anderson has always had a built in audience, but Fox Searchlight didn't really promote, and Christmas 2009 was an already crowded season, Avatar, Sherlock Holmes.



Prediction: $40-60mil.
Actual: $21,002,919.

Judd Apatow's first two directorial efforts scored big at the box office, grossing over $100mil. each. Add in a very talented comedic cast and a July release date, this one looked like a guaranteed hit. Unfortunately, audiences weren't that fond of mixing crude comedy and harsh death drama.



Prediction: $120-130mil.
Actual: $51,855,045.

Most people were expecting big numbers for the film, but I was more realistic with my expectations. Even with one of the finest directors around helming the pic, it was still a very dark, hard R-Rated movie coming out around Christmas. Adding that Christmas 2011 was a very busy time for movies, War Horse, Tintin, M:I4, Sherklock Holmes 2, and it was a remake to an already popular film, based on a very popular book. this one was never going to be very big, but I thought it would have done a bit better than what it did.



Prediction: $110-125mil.
Actual: $102,515,793.

Presentig itself as the female Jason Bourne, this seemed like it could be a small success in the Winter months, but audiences didn't catch on to it's art-house approach to action.



Prediction: $35-60mil.
Actual: $18,942,396.

This looked more like Oscar Bait than box office gold to begin with. An extremely likable cast starring in a romantic dramedy, with a director, James L. Brooks, who helped pioneer the genre directing. But this one was destined to fail from the get-go. With a hefty pricetag of $125mil., in a genre where $60mil. is a hit, it was done. It didn't help that it wasn't that good of a movie, grabbing a bad 32% on the Rotten Tomatometer, and even worse, a 24% from audiences.



Prediction: $60-80mil.
Actual: $30,212,620.

Michael Bay has a formula that usually never fails, (Hot Leads + Summer + Big Explosions = Big Money), usaully. The formula didn't pay off this time, and it remains his biggest flop. Not helping, the releases of Wedding Crashers and Charlie and the Chocolate Factory the previous weekend.



Prediction: $100-125mil.
Actual: $35,818,913.

With a promotional campaign that emphasized a mix between horror, comedy, and Megan Fox's body, this looked like it would take in a solid amount, but audiences either were Megan Foxed out (Tranformers 2 was just 2 months earlier), or turned off by the marketing, because this came and went.



Prediction: $50-70mil.
Actual: $16,734,283.

I wasn't expecting much out of this one, but I at least thought it would end close to the original's $28mil.



Prediction: $20-35mil.
Actual: $8,305,970.

Okay, so it was opening up against Toy Story 3, but it seemed like it would work well as counterprograming. There was just one problem, it sucked. It is now one of the biggest bombs in movie history.



Prediction: $60-80mil.
Actual: $10,547,117.

Two big name stars and a genre that does well during the summer months. It opened up weak and never recovered.



Prediction: $80-110mil.
Actual: $76,423,035.

Some comic book adaptations due extremely well. Others don't, this is the latter.



Prediction: $40-60mil.
Actual: $23,591,432.

I remember when this was released. It came out the same weekend as Get Smart, and the question going in was, "which movie will win?" As it turned, Get Smart would win the weekend handily, and those who went to see The Love Guru mostly hated it. Get Smart would go on to become the bigest comedy of 2008, and The Love Guru would win the Razzie for Worst Pitcure.



Prediction: $70-90mil.
Actual: $32,235,793.

Like all comedies, you can never really know what the over/under will be, but the popularity of the character on SNK and the general stupidity of the trailers, I thought this one would do reasonably well.



Prediction: $30-60mil.
Actual: $8,525,600.

A family film opening in midsummer seemed like it could do at least moderately, if Alvin and the Chipmunks could do well, so could this. No.



Prediction: $50-80mil.
Actual: $33,644,788.

I was expecting Disney to pull off a last minute miracle. The trailers looked bad, the reviews were terrible, and the marketing was weak. If you can believe it, this cost a whopping $150mil. It is the biggest box office flop in motion picture history.



Prediction: $50-70mil.
Actual: $21,392,758.

Television adaptations are usually hit-and-miss, and this one was a bit of a miss. Based off of the '80's series, this replaced the campy fun of the original with gritty, realistic violence. Audiences were either too preoccupied with Pirates of the Caribbean 2, or thought the movie took itself too seriously.



Prediction: $100-120mil.
Actual: $63,450,470.

The trailers made this look like it was skewering the usually rom-com conventions to try to woo male viewers. It didn't work.



Prediction: $60-80mil.
Actual: $22,530,295.

The original, Valentine's Day, was a hit, but audiences weren't too pleased with it. I never expected this to reach the heights of the original, but it could've done better than this.



Prediction: $70-90mil.
Actual: $54,544,638.

The movie's box office prospects sunk before the ship did.



Prediction: $100-130mil.
Actual: $60,674,817.

After 50/50 and The Dark Knight Rises, it seemed like JGL's star status was untouchable, and this looked like a solid late summer performer.



Prediction: $40-70mil.
Actual: $20,013,322.

Beefed up lead, desert locale, summer release, and Jerry Bruckheimer. Usually, that description pays off, but it just didn't add up for Disney, who were expecting to make a franchise out of this one.



Prediction: Anywhere in between $100-150mil.
Actual: $90,759,676.

Granted, the original was not that big of a hit, but I at least thought it would do modestly.



Prediction: $20-40mil.
Actual: $8,050,977.

Wasn't expecting a whole lot, but it did think that it could have been on par with other futuristic thriller genre films.



Prediction: $30-50mil.
Actual: $13,794,835.

The Office got Rainn Wilson out into the public eye, and many expected this to do somewhat well, given it's goofy premise. The marketing was pretty awful, and the film was only okay.



Prediction: $30-60mil.
Actual: $6,409,528.

I wasn't expecting much here, so I'm not really gonna give a great description. I'll simply say that the first two cracked $140mil.



Prediction: At Least $100mil.
Actual: $84,500,122.

I wasn't expecting much, but better than this.



Prediction: $20-40mil
Actual: $12,754,783.

The trailers did a good job of selling it as a fun, gritty alien invasion pic. Turns out that it was about 90 minutes of bad acting, poor writing, and some truly shitty special effects.



Prediction: $40-60mil.
Actual: $21,393,620.

The Disney/Bruckheimer/Cage team had not yet failed, with the two National Treasure being big hits, so I naturally assumed that this was do well. Unfortunately, Nic Cage was becoming a punchline, and it opened the same weekend as Inception. It did qutie well over seas though.



Prediction: $100-120mil.
Actual:$63,150,991.

This was a gamble from day 1. A big budget adaptation of an obscure '60's cartoon, with two directors who were coming off a very dissapointing end to their mega franchise, The Matrix Revolutions, with a price tag of $100mil.+. To add insult to injury, it had to compete against Iron Man's very strong second weekend.



Prediction: $80-110mil.
Actual: $43,945,766.

Sin City did quite well at the box office, and fans loved it, it currently has an 8.2 rating on IMDB, and this having the same creator and director, looked like a continuation of the brand. It turned out it was a more thinly written, bland rip-off.



Prediction: $70-80mil.
Actual: $19,806,188.

Jamie Foxx was hot off of his oscar, Jessica Biel was all over the covers of magazines, and Josh Lucas was just recognizable enough. Add the big budget and open summer release, and it looked like a hit.



Prediction: $100-120mil.
Actual: $32,116,746.

The previews emphasized that this was not your average animated movie, adding the mocumentary genre to tell the story. It ended up seeming like an animated film aimed at adults, and turned off many families.



Prediction: $80-100mil.
Actual: $58,867,694.

Studios, here's a tip. Never release a movie poster where one of your leads is apparently sniffing sperm.



Prediction: $30-40mil.
Actual: $27,779,426.

This one followed the Michael Bay strategy, see The Island recap for the details, to the nail, except it came out around Valentine's Day.



Prediction: $80-90mil.
Actual: $54,760,791.

Johnny Depp and Angelina Jolie starring in a movie together. Must have been a smash right? WRONG. Many looked at this as one to watch for the Winter of 2010, but the reviews were very rough, and the trailers didn't make it look like a must-see.



Prediction: $100-130mil.
Actual: $67,631,157.

This did fairly well when you weigh in the competition and limited appeal of late year comedies that aren't Christmas related. But when you have Ben Stiller and Eddie Murphy toplining the same movie, as well as an impressive supporting cast, this should have done better. The movie was also marred with director Brett Ratner's anti-gay, pro-banging-Olivia-Munn statements.



Prediction: At least $100mil.
Actual: $78,046,570.

A timely biography of the 43rd being released right he is about to exit the White House seem like it could do well if treated with enough care. Many were turned away, however when audiences realized it was not the damning portrait they were led to believe, and painted the President in a more sypathetic light.



Prediction: $50-60mil.
Actual: $25,534,493.

Romantic comedies like this could always go either way. This went south.



Prediction: $40-50mil.
Actual: $14,011,084.

The Wolfman was already an established brand, being one of the "godfathers" of the horror genre, adding in a talented cast and crew, including some superb makeup by the great Rick Baker, this seemed like it woul do quite well, and it did... on opening weekend.



Prediction: $100-140mil.
Actual: $61,979,680.

A great cast, interesting premise, and a weekend with no other real competition, this seemed like it could make a solid profit.



Prediction: $25-40mil.
Actual: $11,494,838.