2016 Academy Awards Predictions

1.

A big musical throwback, La La Land has scored excellent reviews on the festival circuit and is already looking like the frontrunner here. It's at least a lock.

2.

While I doubt it'll win, Manchester By the Sea has a staggering amount of critical support. It's at least a lock to be nominated.

3.

Ditto for Moonlight, which has near-perfect critic's scores, and has been doing solidly at the box office in limited release. Lock (I think).

4.

No formal reviews are up yet, but early screenings suggest a powerful experience. It also helps that the Academy usually responds strongly to movies by actors, and Washington is one of the most respected around. Likely locked in.

5.

It's getting some pretty strong reviews so far, though it's yet to show up at any major awards nominations (it's possible that the film has yet to screen for many). I have faith in it though, Scorsese has only missed this category once in the 2000s, and you can bet that he has a lot of fans within the Academy.

6.

While I wouldn't go as far as to say it's a lock (I would say that for #1-5), Loving is the type of well-meaning, respectful movie that does well here. Add in the year's social climate, and a movie about interracial marriage could be just enough to sway voters.

7.

Science fiction movies have been doing quite well with the Academy for the past few years, and I think (and hope) that'll continue this year with Arrival. The reviews have been strong and the box office has been solid, two things that you need (though a good campaign can offset a film's quality). This is one that I could see getting knocked out by a late-year addition though, so we'll have to see, but at the moment, I think it's in.

8.

Sometimes small movies with big fanbases can factor, unexpectedly, into awards seasons, and I would suspect that Hell or High Water could fill that role this year. With excellent reviews and respectable box office, this could be this years answer to Ex Machina or Sicario, also written by Taylor Sheridan. Though, to disservice my point, neither of those got a BP nod.

9.

A late-season pickup, Jackie burst onto the seen out of Toronto Film Festival with excellent reviews and an oscar-friendly premise. Not a lock, but a strong contender. The fact that it couldn't make it into the Critics' Choice top ten gives me pause though; I see it in, but I could easily see it out.

10.

My wildcard pick for BP, Hacksaw Ridge has got all the ingredients of a Best Picture nominee; WWII (check), period piece (check), comeback director (check). War films always hit pretty hard whether it be modern (American Sniper, The Hurt Locker, Zero Dark Thirty), classic (Platoon, Saving Private Ryan, The Thin Red Line) or even revisionist (Inglourious Basterds). The question mark is how voters will respond to Gibson; will they shun him for his past indiscretions, or will they welcome him in for a comeback. In a year as screwy as 2016, it could go either way.

Other Possibilities

11.

Most people have it making the cut, but I'm feeling pretty apprehensive about putting it in my top ten. The reviews are solid, but not great; while that hasn't stopped movies before, a good-to-okay movie needs a lot of passionate voter support and hype, and that doesn't seem to be here at the moment. Plus, the Weinstein Co. had trouble busting through a tough field last year and, with the competition equally strong this year, I will expect it to have the same luck. I'm probably wrong, but I'm not feeling it at the moment.

12.

Sully opened to strong reviews and surprisingly great box office. The pairing of Eastwood and Hanks helps, both big favorites of the Academy who can usually carry a movie into this category with their clout alone, and Warner Bros. will likely give a solid campaign. I'm not sure that it'll have the juice to make it though; it was released in early September, incredibly early for a contender, and it doesn't have the strong narrative that other movies do.

13.

An inspirational crowd-pleaser that could sway a few voters looking for a traditional BP nominee.

14.

It got very strong notices coming off of the AFI Film Festival, where it was the closing film. AFI's closing night has been a great omen for Oscar contenders over the past few years, with movies like The Big Short and Foxcatcher gaining traction there. Berg's an unknown to the BP field though, and I'm unsure whether voters will be able to separate this from the other Berg/Wahlberg film Deepwater Horizon, which will also be competing. I could definitely see this one making a strong run, and you may see it higher up in my updated predictions in January.

15.

Affleck's got a strong record as a director, but the fact I've only heard it as a possible contender in tech and design categories doesn't give me much hope.

1.

Damien Chazelle- La La Land His movie is the current Best Picture favorite. It's highly unlikely that he misses out here.

2.

Barry Jenkins- MoonlightMoonlight is getting a lot of praise, and Jenkins' directorial vision is likely the chief reason for it. It also doesn't hurt that an African American hasn't been nominated here in three years. After a couple of years of #OscarsSoWhite controversy, I'd bet that they'll be looking for more diversity. Luckily, they have a few strong options this year.

3.

Kenneth Lonergan- Manchester by the SeaWith Manchester by the Sea being such a favorite this year, it would surprise me to see Lonergan miss out. The only thing that could hinder him is the film's size; more and more, this category is going to the bigger, louder directorial accomplishments, forgetting the smaller ones. Still likely in (think Tom McCarthy's nod for Spotlight last year), but not a lock.

4.

Martin Scorsese- SilenceScorsese's name alone could get him here, but I'm expecting Silence to be something special. If it isn't though, he could probably still make it in, even if Silence misses BP.

5.

Denzel Washington- FencesAs I stated earlier, the Academy usually goes crazy for actor-director efforts. However, the directors branch has been a bit stingier with their picks over the years, championing smaller efforts over broader fare; Ben Affleck missing the director's slot in 2012 to Haneke (Amour) and Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild) is the posterchild for this. Still, Washington is so damn respected, and Fences is getting strong early reviews, I think he'll be in. Plus, the chance at history, there's never been two black best director nominees in one year, may be too enticing in a year marred by societal friction.

Other Possibilities

6.

Denis Villeneuve- Arrival

7.

Pablo Larrain- Jackie

8.

David Mackenzie- Hell or High Water

9.

Jeff Nichols- Loving

10.

Mel Gibson- Hacksaw Ridge

1.

Casey Affleck- Manchester By the SeaHe's the early favorite, and at least a lock for a nomination. Though, there's a sexual harassment controversy brewing and if it hits hard enough, it could derail his chances. Still, for now at least, he's locked in.

2.

Denzel Washington- FencesWhile I wouldn't call him a lock on the directing front, I can't imagine him not making it in here.

3.

Ryan Gosling- La La LandNot quite a lock, though I would be surprised if he missed out. La La Land looks like the movie to beat, and it's likely he rides that momentum to his second nomination.

4.

Joel Edgerton- LovingThere are three actors in the running for two spots and, of those, Edgerton seems like the safest bet. His subtle work in the film garnered rave reviews, and playing an actual person is always helpful.

5.

Andrew Garfield- SilenceThe only guess left in the race, Silence is the only film not to have screened yet, but it's such a strong prospect that it has everyone buzzing. The first trailer dropped a few days ago, hinting at the epic scope of the film, and at the power of the performers in the film. Garfield looks committed as hell in the film, and Scorsese has a solid track record, post-2000, with his leads making the cut. We'll find out soon enough.

Other Possibilities

6.

Tom Hanks- SullyFor Sully, Hanks has received his customary rave reviews. Most have him in, but I'm just not certain that they'll take him. He's been snubbed numerous times over the past decade, with showier parts to boot. If they wouldn't give him a nomination for Captain Phillips, I'm not sure they'll nominate him for the subtle work here. Still, Eastwood's leading men always stand an excellent chance at a nomination, so it's easily possible (if not probable).

7.

Andrew Garfield- Hacksaw RidgeAlong with Silence, Garfield has the most horses in this race. There is the chance that both performances split votes, but I suspect that Silence will be big enough that it overshadows his earnest work in Hacksaw Ridge. I could see a scenario where his work here leapfrogs in over the bigger performance; something akin to DiCaprio's nomination in 2006 for Blood Diamond when most expected him to get in for The Departed (also Scorsese).

8.

Viggo Mortensen- Captain FantasticMortensen is a respected actor, and his work in Captain Fantastic drew some of the best notices of his career. He's a dark horse pick, but one that could surprise (if he gets a SAG nod, he's probably in).

9.

Adam Driver- Paterson

10.

Matthew McConaughey- Gold

1.

Natalie Portman- JackieLikely the favorite. Lock.

2.

Emma Stone- La La LandComplete lock.

3.

Amy Adams- ArrivalWhile nothing after #1 & #2 are locks, I'm starting to feel more and more confident about Adams chances. Arrival has been gaining a lot of momentum lately, with notices from the NBR and Critic' Choice Awards, and Adams' performance is a huge part of that. Plus, she's incredibly well liked by the Academy (she's got five nominations). Certainly no lock, but I'm going with my gut.

4.

Annette Bening- 20th Century WomenA respected screen veteran, Bening has four previous nomination, and is getting superb reviews for her work in 20th Century Women. That said, the movie is flying pretty under the radar at the moment, and with her having so many previous nomination, many may not feel the need to give her another one, up against such strong competition. At the moment though, she seems like a pretty strong prospect.

5.

Ruth Negga- LovingLoving is one of the bigger "bubble" movies this awards-season. While it could hit big, it could also miss in every category that I've predicted it in. Negga is getting some excellent notices for her performance, and has been nominated by every major award voting group thus far. She's a newcomer however, and she's never been in the awards spotlight as well. Could she lose out to a more well-known actress with a film with more momentum. At the moment, I'm still going with her, but it's certainly not concrete.

Other Possibilities

6.

Isabelle Huppert- ElleHuppert's surprise nominations and wins thus far have jettisoned her into the conversation, but she's still at something of a disadvantage with a foreign film that might not get as many eyeballs on her work as the five women above. It hasn't hurt that much over the past two years though, with Marion Cotillard and Emmanuelle Riva making it in for foreign films. Plus, with most of the category looking uncertain, she may be able to sneak in with small pockets of support.

7.

Taraji P. Henson- Hidden FiguresIf Hidden Figures ends up making a legit run and takes off, then Henson has a shot. This category is pretty stacked though, so don't necessarily get you hopes up.

8.

Meryl Streep- Florence Foster JenkinsIt's Streep, so there's always a shot she could make it in.

9.

Jessica Chastain- Miss Sloane

10.

Viola Davis- FencesShe's campaigning in the supporting actress category, but there's always a chance that they put here in the lead category. But...

1.

Viola Davis- Fences...that's probably not going to happen, and she's gonna win Best Supporting Actress. Enough said.

2.

Michelle Williams- Manchester By the SeaLock.

3.

Naomie Harris- MoonlightLikely a lock, though not as strong of one as #1 & #2. Moonlight's got a lot of love though, so it's probable.

4.

Nicole Kidman- LionKidman's likely in here. She's getting some strong reviews for her turn in the film, and beyond the three above, this isn't necessarily the strongest category. While I'm not too certain of it's BP prospect, I'd say it'll pick up a few down the line.

5.

Janelle Monae- Hidden FiguresMonae's had something of a breakout year, with her work in this and Moonlight getting a lot of praise. It's a toss up between her a Gerwig, but I'm going with Hidden Figures growing (somewhat) momentum.

Other Possibilities

6.

Greta Gerwig- 20th Century WomenGerwig's always been on the verge of popping, and her work in 20th Century Women looks to be the one that puts her in the spotlight. Like I said before, it's between her a Monae. Though I'm going with the former, it's likely quite close.

7.

Octavia Spencer- Hidden Figures

8.

Felicity Jones- A Monster Calls

9.

Helen Mirren- Eye in the Sky

10.

Laura Linney- Nocturnal Animals

1.

Mahershala Ali- Moonlight I wouldn't say that there's a favorite to win here just yet, but Ali seems closest to it. He's been cleaning up the critics' awards, and Moonlight is looking like one of this season's darlings. He's a lock.

2.

Lucas Hedges- Manchester By the SeaHis breakout turn in Manchester By the Sea is turning a lot of heads, and he appears to be a lock. I'm a little hesitant to call him one though. It's highly likely that he makes it in, but the Oscars have never been kind to younger male actors (it's usually middle-aged to older men and younger women). Ali's the only lock, but Hedges looks pretty damn strong.

3.

Jeff Bridges- Hell or High WaterBridges is an Academy favorite, giving his best performance in nearly a decade here. Like Hedges, he's no lock, but Bridges looks stronger than the rest of the field.

4.

Dev Patel- LionIt's probably category fraud, but when has that stopped anyone in the past? Patel is getting strong reviews for the film, and he's got the Weinsteins backing him (who have an excellent track record with actors). It's a tough one, but he seems to have more momentum here than most.

5.

Michael Shannon- Nocturnal AnimalsShannon's been on the cusp of a second nomination for a while now; just last year he was likely the sixth man in this category for 99 Homes. As is typical for him, his work in Nocturnal Animals is being called a scene-stealer. I think his chances are better this time out; both because he's started to get an "overdue" vibe, and Nocturnal Animals isn't the surprise hitter that 99 Homes was. It's been here for a while, and is a contender in a few other categories. It's close, but he's looking solid at the moment.

Other Possibilities

This is going to be longer, because there are a lot of possibilities in this category.

6.

Liam Neeson- SilenceAn overdue acting veteran in Scorsese movie. Even if his role is small in Silence, I'm sure his performance will be in the conversation.

7.

Ben Foster- Hell or High WaterAfter scoring nods at the Spirit and Critics' Choice Awards, Foster is firmly in the conversation. Hell or High Water has been gaining a lot of momentum over the past few weeks, and with more eyeballs come more opportunity. The thing deterring him here is that Bridges is looking solid, and no movie has managed to get two or more slots here since Bugsy 25 years ago.

8.

Hugh Grant- Florence Foster Jenkins

9.

Stephen Henderson- FencesFences looks to be an acting powerhouse, and the supporting male cast has been receiving some solid notices, we could see any of them crack it. Henderson seems the most likely at the moment; a veteran acting who's been strong in character work for years.

10.

Mykelti Williamson- Fences

11.

Issey Ogata- SilenceFirstly, I'm not sure if he's in this picture. Based on the photos I looked at, he may be the middle guy. There's really no other photos though, so that's what you're getting. Secondly, after placing runner-up with the L.A. Film Critics Association, he's now on the map. It's been a suspicion that Neeson's part in the film is merely a cameo, and it appears that he could be usurped by a costar with a meatier part. So far, the early word puts Ogata as the most likely.

12.

Aaron Taylor-Johnson- Nocturnal Animals

13.

Adam Driver- Silence

14.

Jovan Adepo- Fences

15.

Simon Helberg- Florence Foster Jenkins

16.

Kevin Costner- Hidden Figures

1.

Jay Cocks & Martin Scorsese- SilenceCould Scorsese win his second Oscar for writing? With a depleted adapted screenplay category, it looks like a definite possibility. Silence, at this point, at least seems to be on track for a nomination.

2.

August Wilson- FencesWilson is a legendary playwright who passed away over a decade ago, but not before completing the script for the film. Respect for him, as well as the positive reception of the film, makes him likely a lock.

3.

Eric Heisserer- ArrivalArrival's shifting narrative, and the tricky twists as the film go on, make the film a real challenge to write. Because Heisserer pulled it off so magnificently, I'd be surprised to see him miss here (even if the film somehow falls out of the BP race).

4.

Luke Davies- LionThe Weinstein Company has missed the screenplay categories since 2007 (before the studio rose to awards prominence), and I don't expect them time break the trend this year. Though, it's not as set as it has been in previous years. Lion is well-received, but not overly loved, and there are about three or films battling it out for the last two spots (I'd wager that the top three are more-or-less safe). Luckily for Davies, Lion seems the safest out of those four, and is probably going to make it in. It helps that Adapted Screenplay isn't particularly strong this year.

5.

Tom Ford- Nocturnal AnimalsWhile it doesn't have the best reviews, the those who like it love it and those who don't at least respect. What gives it a leg open over #6 and #7 is it's structure; like Inherent Vice a couple of years ago, there's a strong degree of difficulty to adapting source material, with so many plot threads and stories within stories. It's visible onscreen, and I think it'll get a lot of respect for it.

Other Possibilities

6.

Allison Schroeder and Theodore Melfi- Hidden Figures

7.

Todd Komarnicki- Sully

8.

David Birke- Elle

9.

Ben Affleck- Live by Night

10.

Whit Stillman- Love & Friendship

1.

Kenneth Lonergan- Manchester By the SeaNo possible outcome where it isn't nominated.

2.

Barry Jenkins and Tarell Alvin McCraney- MoonlightDitto.

3.

Damien Chazelle- La La LandThere's a chance it could miss (it's a musical, and musics don't have a great screenplay nomination record) but it's pretty small; no movie has won Best Picture without a screenplay nod since 1997 (Titanic), and this is the favorite. Plus, it's pretty well-liked all around.

4.

Taylor Sheridan- Hell or High WaterEven before Hell or High Water ascended to a strong BP prospect, the script was in the running. Now, it looks like a near lock (emphasis on near). Like Adapted, there are about three or four movies duking it out for the last two spots, but HOHW looks the strongest of the bunch. It helps that the film features the best dialogue in the category.

5.

Jeff Nichols- LovingThis one's pretty much a guess, but I'm taking Nichols at #5. Scripts based on real-life stories have done pretty well in this category over the past few years, and Loving's got the type of inspirational, and mildly relevant, that the Academy usually goes bonkers for. It's got some stiff competition though...

Other Possibilities

6.

Efthymis Filippou and Giorgos Lanthimos- The LobsterIn terms of originality, there's no movie in this field that comes close to The Lobster. Originality, however, has been paling to scripts with more momentum over the past few years, and this one doesn't have to most momentum. It's in the running; little films like this often have small but passionate fan bases, and managed to get a Critics' Choice nod (though, they had six nominees per category, not five).

7.

Noah Oppenheimer- JackieStill in the running, but Jackie's lost a bit of momentum, and that's the one thing it needs to get into the category. While the film is getting a lot of praise, the script isn't the focus of much of it.

8.

Mike Mills- 20th Century Women

9.

Matt Ross- Captain Fantastic

10.

Byron Howard, Jared Bush, Phil Johnston, Jennifer Lee, Rich Moore, Jim Reardon, Josie Trinidad- Zootopia

1.

With great reviews and a surprisingly timely subtext, Zootopia looks like the favorite so far.

2.

Laika's previous three efforts have been nominated (even the disappointing The Boxtrolls, so it would be pretty shocking to see their best reviewed movie not make it in.

3.

Moana is getting some excellent reviews, and is doing incredibly well at the box office. Probably a lock, though not at the level of the first two.

4.

Animated sequels are usually a 50/50 prospect, but Dory is the sequel to one of the most beloved animated movies ever, and incredibly well-received in its own right. Probably in, but the lack of buzz (especially for one with 94% on RT and over a billion dollars at the box office) is alarming.

5.

Studio Ghilbi, which co-produced, has an excellent track record here, and its artsy enough to woo the animation branch (all animation, no dialogue). As always, with a movie like this, it could be too small or obscure, but I still expect to see it.

Other Possibilities

6.

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9.

10.

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5.

Other Possibilities

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8.

9.

10.

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

Other Possibilities

6.

7.

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9.

10.

1.

Linus Sandgren- La La LandProbably going to win.

2.

Rodrgigo Prieto- SilenceScorsese's cinematographers have a solid record as of late, only Shutter Island and Wolf of Wall Street didn't crack the field for his post-2000 films, and Prieto's work is getting praised for it's subtle, painterly camerawork. Likely in.

3.

Bradford Young- ArrivalYoung's work here is getting Malick comparisons, always a strong compliment in this department, and Arrival is looking stronger and stronger by the day.

4.

James Laxton- MoonlightLaxton's camera is essentially a character in the film, with actors looking directly into it and the slow setups where the camera movements are key. It's a smaller effort, but distinctiveness has always been a hallmark of this category, and Moonlight certainly looks different than any film in this category.

5.

Stéphane Fontaine- JackieShot with 16mm film to replicate a 1960s-type texture, Jackie has a soft, grainy, throwback look that pops off the screen. It's a lush looking film that could definitely make cut, though it's got so pretty tough competition...

Other Possibilities

6.

Robert Richardson- Live by NightRichardson is one of the most respected DPs in the bussiness, with nine nominations (including one last year for The Hateful Eight), and three wins (JFK in 1990, The Aviator in 2004, and Hugo in 2011). Based on trailers, he's created another visual treat.

7.

Seamus McGarvey- Nocturnal Animals

8.

Roger Deakins- Hail, Caesar!

9.

Bill Pope- The Jungle Book

10.

Vittorio Storaro- Cafe Society

1.

Justin Hurwitz- La La LandBecause obviously.

2.

Mica Levi- JackieLevi's orchestral and uneasy score is surely one of the more distinct in recent years, and plays a huge part in the film's resonance. Hurwitz is the category's only lock, but Levi is looking solid.

3.

Dustin O’Halloran and Hauschka- LionLion's piano and violin heavy score is a piercing emotional journey, one likely to be stuck in the minds of voters. One the edge, but the Weisteins are very good with scores.

4.

Michael Giacchino- Rogue One: A Star Wars StoryDefinitly on the edge, but Giacchino is an Oscar winner, and Star Wars music is bound to be an epic journey.

5.

Nicolas Britell- Moonlight

Other Possibilities

6. John Williams- The BFG
7. Hans Zimmer, Pharrell Williams and Benjamin Wallfisch- Hidden Figures
8. Abel Korzeniowski- Nocturnal Animals
9. Alexandre Desplat- Florence Foster Jenkins
10. James Newton Howard- Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

1.

"City of Stars"- La La LandThe favorite. Lock

2.

"Audition (The Fools Who Dream)"- La La LandProbably a lock. La La Land will likely have a major grip on this category.

3.

"How Far I'll Go"- MoanaProbable. The movie's music is getting a lot of praise, and Disney movies have a pretty excellent record in this category. It doesn't hurt that it has Lin-Manuel Miranda's name attached to it, who's having a hell of a year, possibly close to EGOTing.

4.

"Drive It Like You Stole It"- Sing StreetJohn Carney's last two movies, 2007's Once and 2014's Begin Again, have made the cut here, with the former winning the category. Nothing beyond the first three look safe, with #2-#3 likely not quite locks (this is a very weird category), but Carney's record here, and the song's infectiousness, give me a feeling that it's going to be in.

5.

"I'm Still Here"- Miss Sharon JonesI pretty wild guess, but the Academy usually goes for documentary songs here, with two making it in just last year. Also, with Jones's unfortunate passing, the song's been given an ironic poignancy.

Other Possibilities

6."Can't Stop the Feeling"- Trolls
7."Runnin'"- Hidden Figures
8."Just Like Fire"- Alice Through the Looking Glass
9."The Rules Don't Apply"- Rules Don't Apply
10."Faith"- Sing

1. Tom Cross- La La Land
2. Joi McMillon and Nat Sanders- Moonlight
3. John Gilbert- Hacksaw Ridge
4. Joe Walker- Arrival
5. Thelma Schoonmaker- Silence

Other Possibilities
6. Jennifer Lame- Manchester By the Sea
7. Sebastián Sepúlveda- Jackie
8. Blu Murray- Sully
9. Joan Sobel- Nocturnal Animals
10. Jake Roberts- Hell or High Water

1.

Madeline Fontaine- Jackie

2.

Mary Zophres- La La Land

3.

Colleen Atwood- Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

4.

Jacqueline West- Live By Night

5.

Consolata Boyle- Florence Foster Jenkins

Other Possibilities

6.

Dante Ferretti- Silence

7.

Joanna Johnston- Allied

8.

Eimer Ní Mhaoldomhnaigh- Love & Friendship

9.

Albert Wolsky- Rules Don't Apply

10.

Alexandra Byrne- Doctor Strange

1.

David Wasco and Sandy Reynolds-Wasco- La La Land

2.

Jean Rabasse and Véronique Melery- Jackie

3.

Dante Ferretti and Francesca Lo Schiavo- Silence

4.

Stuart Craig, James Hambidge and Anna Pinnock- Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

5.

Jess Gonchor and Nancy Haigh- Live By Night

Other Possibilities

6.

Patrice Vermette, Paul Hotte and André Valade- Arrival

7.

Christopher Glass and Amanda Moss Serino- The Jungle Book

8.

Jess Gonchor and Nancy Haigh- Hail, Caesar

9.

Doug Chiang and Neil Lamont- Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

10.

Santo Loquasto and Regina Graves- Café Society

1. Hacksaw Ridge
2. La La Land
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
4. Arrival
5. The Jungle Book

Other Possibilities
6. Silence
7. Deepwater Horizon
8. Sully
9. Live By Night
10. Captain America: Civil War

1. La La Land
2. Hacksaw Ridge
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
4. Silence
5. The Jungle Book

Other Possibilities
6. Arrival
7. Deepwater Horizon
8. Sully
9. Live By Night
10. Allied

1.

Jackie
Emphasis on "Hairstyling". Nothing is a lock (this category is pretty odd with it's nomination process), but this one seems the safest.

2.

Silence
Frizzled, greasy hair and emaciation work wonders here (Dallas Buyers Club, The Revenant), and

3.

Star Trek Beyond
There's usually at least one showy blockbuster here, and Beyond has some pretty damn showy work. Probably wrong, but I've got a gut feeling.

Other Possibilities

4.

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

5.

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

6.

Hacksaw Ridge

7.

Doctor Strange

8.

Florence Foster Jenkins

9.

Suicide Squad

10.

Deadpool

1.

The Jungle BookI'd be pretty surprised if this didn't win.

2.

Doctor Strange
Marvel's films are pretty strong here, and considering that Strange feature the studio's finest visual effects, it would be a shock to see it miss.

3.

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Only once has a Star Wars movie missed the cut, and I really don't expect that list to grow. Many reviews point to Rogue One's effects being better than The Force Awakens, which was very close to winning last year. Probably in.

4.

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
While the Harry Potter movies had a difficult time making the V/FX category, that can mostly be attributed to the category only having three vacant spots. When the category moved to five, both Deathly Hollows pics made the cut. As such, fantasy movies do pretty well here, and I expect to see Beasts make it in.

5.

Arrival
While not the biggest or most expensive here, Arrival's effects play a very important part in the movie, and last year's Ex Machina win proved that subtle work can shine here.

Other Possibilities

6.

Captain America: Civil War

7.

Star Trek Beyond

8.

Warcraft

9.

Passengers

10.

Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice