2015 Academy Awards Predictions

1.

With superb reviews and strong early box office, Spotlight has leaped forward as the early favorite. Whether or not it can hold on to the momentum for the next three months is a serious question mark, especially when there are at least three big contenders yet to be released, but for now it seems to be on top and, even if it loses its thunder, is almost guaranteed a nomination.

2.

This one's got a lot of hype surrounding it; its coming from the reigning best picture & director champ, starring a lead overdue for the gold, and every single trailer thus for has promised a unique cinematic experience. A recent early screening received a lot of praise, so this is looking like one the strongest contenders of the year.

3.

Every year usually has at least one hit movie in the lineup, and this year's hit appears to be The Martian. As well as being a commercial hit, it's gotten excellent reviews, and in a year lacking a runaway front runner, that should be good enough to make the cut. Add in a comeback narrative for director Ridley Scott, and the fact that movies set in space have been doing exceptionally well over the past couple of years, and things gold. It could be this year's Gone Girl though; a critical and commercial smash with a big name director that gets shut out in favor of artier, more "prestige" fare. That looks fairly unlikely to happen though, at least for now.

4.

Despite it's dark and emotional story, Room has become something of a favorite for many people, hitting I lot of people hard. With strong reviews and decent box office thus far, expect to see this one here two months from now.

5.

Three of Spielberg's last five movies have gotten nominated here, all of which (Munich in 2005, War Horse in 2011, and Lincoln in 2012) "awards-bait" movies. With strong reviews and the kind of old-school filmmaking that'll likely hit hard for older voters, Bridge of Spies will be likely make it in.

6.

While it's popularity has fallen considerably since it's Cannes premiere, Carol is still one of the best reviewed movies of the year, with award magnets in front of and behind the camera, and Weinstein Co. backing. It may be in the back five of the pack, but it's still a strong contender.

7.

It's flying way under the radar at the moment, but it's the type of classic Hollywood romantic drama that several voters could cling to. Plus, Fox Searchlight has had at least one movie here every year of the 2010s, including winning the last two (12 Years a Slave, Birdman).

8.

Word from the first screening was highly positive, and Tarantino's become something of a favorite with the Academy. Things are looking pretty good now.

9.

Inside Out was a major comeback for Pixar, and could definitely make the cut. It all depends on how the rest of the field shakes out, and if any of them catch fire. At the moment, things look good.

10.

39 years ago, Rocky finished a true Cinderella run, winning Best Picture. Now, the seventh film in the series is receiving excellent reviews upon release. The Academy has always been in love with boxing movies, from Rocky to Raging Bull to Million Dollar and The Fighter, and this could end up being a lot of voters sentimental choice. Add the fact that this is really Warner Bros. only genuine contender, and this could get a very strong push.

Other Possibilities

11.

David O. Russell's last three movies were all nominated for best picture, and combined for a total 25 nominations, but early word from the first screening was fairly mixed. He's clearly well liked by the voters, but in such a strong year, does it have what it takes? I'm not sure.

12.

This was a sure thing until it bombed at the box office, now it's not looking positive. The reviews were strong, and I'd say Universal is gonna try their hardest to get it here, as it's the only major contender they have this year, but this season is too strong.

13.

Wall Street movies have been doing quite well here lately, with Wolf of Wall Street scoring five in 2013 and Margin Call scoring a surprise screenplay nod in 2011. The reviews thus far have been pretty strong and, this year, Paramount actually got screeners out in time, unlike Wolf or last year's Selma. Plus, it's really Paramount's only dog this year, so expect a major push. This could end up being a surprise dark horse, though it could also miss entirely. We'll see.

14.

National Board of Review named it best pic. While they missed big last year with A Most Violent Year, that's one of only three times since 1980. It's a bold pick, but the kind that could surprise.

15.

It got strong reviews and Netflix is gonna give a hell of a push, but Beasts of No Nation doesn't seem to being hanging on the way other critical successes have, likely because it's an incredibly tough watch. The slew of Independent Spirit Award nods it got might give it a boost, but it still seems too under the radar at the moment. It could rally though.

16.

The reviews have been fairly mixed (73% on RT, but few have been glowing), but this is the type of Oscar bait that has succeeded hugely in the past. This could catch on, but with so many other films getting more love, it may just settle for acting and technical nods.

1.

Tom McCarthy- Spotlight
His movie is the early frontrunner, so it would be a surprise not to see him.

2.

Alejandro González Iñárritu- The Revenant
Considering that he won last year, he's not exactly hurting for momentum. If the movie's any good, he'll likely be here. Directors of more visually oriented movies usually do well here.

3.

Ridley Scott- The Martian
Scott's "comeback" movie has been a massive hit, and he's been getting some of the best reviews of his career. If The Martian can keep momentum throughout the season, he'll be a strong bet.

4.

Steven Spielberg- Bridge of Spies
This is a tough spot, with several other genuine contenders, but the Academy usually goes for it's favorites when they deliver, and Spies did. He has only been nominated twice since winning for Saving Private Ryan, so it's possible they're not as enamored with him as they once were. Still, he's a safe bet for now, so I go with him.

5.

Todd Haynes- Carol

Other Possibilities

6.

Quentin Tarantino- The Hateful Eight

7.

George Miller- Mad Max: Fury Road

8.

Lenny Abrahamson- Room

9.

Ryan Coogler- Creed

10.

David O. Russell-Joy

1.

Brie Larson- Room
Larson's been on the edge of breaking out for a while, but Room appears to have finally done it. She's been getting amazing reviews for a film that'll likely make into Best Picture. Many are tipping her as the front runner and, based on the rest of the field, I'm inclined to agree.

2.

Cate Blanchett- Carol
Aside from Meryl Streep, Blanchett may be the most respected actress around, and she's getting a lot of it for her role in Carol. While the film has fallen off in buzz over the past few months, I can't imagine her losing out here. Stranger things have happened though.

3.

Jennifer Lawrence- Joy
Lawrence has been nominated for both of her previous performances in David O. Russell films, and won here three years ago for Silver Linings Playbook. Even if the film disappoints (there have been a few negative rumors floating around), I think her performance will be strong enough to get her in.

4.

Saoirse Ronan- Brooklyn
Brooklyn appears to be a player this season, and Ronan's performance is a big part of that. Most reviewers point out that she's the best part of a great film. While this category is a bit tougher this year, few of the women in spots below her are in, likely, Best Picture nominees.

5.

Lily Tomlin- Grandma
There are several women competing for this spot, most having strong narratives to get behind. But I'll still with Tomlin for now; Grandma was a small movie, but Tomlin's having a great year, and it's been decades since her last nomination. I think she's respected enough to make the cut, even if her film didn't make a big splash.

Other Possibilities

6.

Carey Mulligan- Suffragette

7.

Charlotte Rampling- 45 Years

8.

Blythe Danner- I'll See You in My Dreams

9.

Charlize Theron- Mad Max: Fury Road

10.

Maggie Smith- The Lady in the Van

1.

Leonardo DiCaprio- The Revenant
It appears that DiCaprio will final get his own little gold statue. The fact that this seems to be a much weaker year for the category, and that almost all of the early reaction mentioned him as deserving of the oscar. Plus, most just see him as being due. Unless one of the following guys make a surprise run, DiCaprio may have this in the bag.

2.

Michael Fassbender- Steve Jobs
Even with the movie's box office failure, it's hard to imagine Fassbender's excellent performance not making the cut. It helps that it's a weaker year, and it helps that he's playing a real life figure. Baring some genuinely surprising dismissal, he'll likely be in.

3.

Matt Damon- The Martian
The Martian was a monster hit, both critically and commercially, and Damon's performance had a lot to do with it. While he could get passed over for smaller, more artier performance, the movie was so well likely by most that I think he on a lot of people's lists.

4.

Eddie Redmayne- The Danish Girl
The hype that he'll being going back-to-back has pretty much died down, thanks to okay but not great reviews and buzzier performances. Its such an awards-friendly performance that it'd be surprising if he missed, but the movie doesn't seem to have that much love, so he may.

5.

Johnny Depp- Black Mass
While Depp got strong notices for his comeback work in Black Mass, the movie came and went so quickly that his spot seems more wobbly that the other four. But, the Academy has always liked makeup heavy performance, and Depp is quite strong, so for now I'll leave him in.

Other Possibilities

6.

Samuel L. Jackson- The Hateful Eight

7.

Michael Caine- Youth

8.

Ian McKellen- Mr. Holmes

9.

Tom Hanks- Bridge of Spies

10.

Michael B. Jordan- Creed

1.

Michael Keaton- Spotlight
Keaton's loss last year still stings for some, and his performance is getting some the best notices in a ensemble full of heavy hitters. It's too early to say if he'll win, but it seems he's at least a lock for a nomination.

2.

Mark Ruffalo- Spotlight
Another Spotlight star who's due. Ruffalo is also getting excellent reviews for his work in the film, and looks to be a strong bet here as well.

3.

Idris Elba- Beasts of No Nation
While the movie doesn't seem to be that much of a player, Elba's been getting excellent reviews, and this is a category where villainous characters have always thrived.

4.

Tom Hardy- The Revenant
Like DiCaprio, Hardy also got excellent reviews at the recent screening, and Iñárritu actors have always been magnets for awards. Plus, Hardy's been on the rise for a while, and it's likely time he gets noticed.

5.

Sylvester Stallone- Creed
I've said before, and I'll say it again; everybody loves a comeback. Stallone's been getting the most praise ever, aside from his first performance in this role 39 years ago. This is the type of comeback narrative that can really get people behind it. Strong dark horse possibility.

Other Possibilities

6.

Mark Rylance- Bridge of Spies

7.

Jacob Tremblay- Room

8.

Paul Dano- Love & Mercy

9.

Christian Bale- The Big Short

10.

Benicio Del Toro- Sicario

1.

Jennifer Jason Leigh- The Hateful Eight
We haven't seen her yet, but both trailers suggest an off-the-wall performance, and Tarantino has a solid history with female characters. Plus, like I said above, this isn't the most loaded category. She may also be seen as due; she's been in the business a long time and has yet to receive a nom. If she's good, we could be seeing a strong contender.

2.

Rooney Mara- Carol
The only thing that could stop Mara from making it in here is if most voters were split as to whether or not she should actually be in lead. While that hasn't stopped most people campaigning here before, the buzz seems to be pretty loud. I doubt that it'll be loud enough though, and based on everything that I've seen, she's an early favorite here. She could end up in lead though, so look out.

3.

Alicia Vikander- The Danish Girl
Another bit of category fraud, though the criticism isn't as loud for her as it is Mara, which is surprising considering many think Vikander has more screen time than the film's lead actor. Either way, it likely won't effect her either (especially since this is a pretty thin field); most reviews have been calling Vikander the best part of the movie, and she's having a truly breakout year. She'll be tough to ignore.

4.

Kate Winslet- Steve Jobs
The movie is on the downswing, but with a smaller field here I think Winslet's strong work will be enough to get her a nom. She's a previous winner, and hasn't been nominated since The Reader, and respected enough carry her over.

5.

Jane Fonda- Youth
This is an odd spot, where several women could take the fifth spot. I'll go with Fonda for now; she's a multiple winner with a lot of respect within the industry. But...

Other Possibilities

6.

Rachel McAdams- Spotlight

7.

Joan Allen- Room

8.

Elizabeth Banks- Love & Mercy

9.

Kristin Stewart- Clouds of Sils Maria

10.

Helen Mirren- Trumbo

1.

Tom McCarthy and Josh Singer- Spotlight
Total lock.

2.

Pete Docter, Meg LeFauve, Josh Cooley, and Ronnie Del Carmen- Inside Out
Pixar has always been strong here, and Inside Out's originality and imagination should insure a spot here

3.

Quentin Tarantino- The Hateful Eight
Tarantino has owned this category in the past, and if Eight maintains his trademark stroytelling, then he should make it in.

4.

Matt Charman and Joel Coen & Ethan Coen - Bridge of Spies
While the script was one of the few aspects of the film that wasn't particularly praised, it was still a smart, taut screenplay. It also doesn't hurt that it's really the last potential best picture nominee in this category, and that it has the Coen brothers names attached to it.

5.

Annie Mumolo and David O. Russell- Joy
Early word is mixed, but O. Russell has a strong track record in the screenplay category, and this is a pretty slim one.

Other Possibilities

6.

Laslo Nemes and Clara Royer- Son of Saul

7.

Paolo Sorrentino- Youth

8.

Oren Moverman and Michael Alan Lerner- Love & Mercy

9.

Amy Schumer- Trainwreck

10.

Sean Baker & Chris Bergoch- Tangerine

1.

Aaron Sorkin- Steve Jobs
Even with the movie bombing hard, it would be genuinely shocking not Sorkin here. The movie is so script reliant that most would point to him for the film's success (critically, that is). Being a previous winner doesn't hurt.

2.

Emma Donoghue- Room
Room is a likely best picture nominee with a praised script from the book's author. Donoghue seems likely to be nominated, and possibly even win. Though she could become this year's Gillian Flynn; a scripter of her own material, Gone Girl, that get's shut out in favor of an all male field. That seems a bit unlikely, mainly because where a Room is an expected nominee, Gone Girl was always more on the fringe.

3.

Nick Hornby- Brooklyn
A big BP contender with a script from a previous nominee, who also came pretty close to cracking the field with last year's Wild. The movie has been so well received that it would be surprising not to see it here.

4.

Phyllis Nagy- Carol
Two women in one year? It looks like a strong possibility this year. While many have been writing off Carol lately, and they may be right, I think it'll still have a strong showing, including here. The movie's getting amazing reviews, and checks off several boxes (period piece, romance, LGBT). It could fall off, but I'm going with my gut.

5.

Drew Goddard - The Martian
The Martian is clearly a favorite among critics and audiences, and a lot of that has to do with Goddard's smart and clever script. There are a lot of great lines here, and dialogue is usually a big deciding factor.

Other Possibilities

6.

Mark L. Smith and Alejandro González Iñárritu- The Revenant
I expect The Revenant to be a huge player this year, but everything that I've seen and heard indicates that this is going to be more of visual experience (Malick comparisons were plentiful at the screening) than a story one.

7.

Charlie Kaufman- Anomalisa

8.

Adam McKay and Charles Randolph- The Big Short

9.

Cary Joji Fukunaga- Beasts of No Nation

10.

Lucinda Coxon- The Danish Girl

1.

Duh.

2.

Seems pretty much like a lock at the moment.

3.

Even if it's viewed as the lesser Pixar movie this year, the category is so empty that it would be a real shocker if it didn't make it in.

4.

Few people saw it, but it got great reviews, and this is a weak category.

5.

Decent reviews and solid box office seems like enough this year.

Other Possibilities

6.

7.

8.

1.

Easily the favorite.

2.

3.

4.

5.

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

Other Possibilities

6.

7.

8.

1.

Emmanuel Lubezki- The Revenant
Could we be seeing a three-peat? It's looking pretty good now. Every new image released is a work of art, and his use of natural light appears to be mind-blowing.

2.

Robert Richardson- The Hateful Eight
Richardson is an academy favorite here (he's won thrice), and he's been nominated for his last two QT collaborations. Early word is strong, praising his 70mm photography.

3.

Roger Deakins- Sicario
Deakins has been nominated four out of this decade's five years, including three straight. Yet another nomination is looking good for his strong work here. Is it good enough to win though? Questionable.

4.

John Seale- Mad Max: Fury Road
Seale's a previous winner and multiple nominee who came out of retirement to shoot MMFR, and it paid off. The film is one of the most thrilling films in decades.

5.

Edward Lachman- Carol
Lachman was nominated over a decade ago for another of Haynes films, Far From Heaven, and he's getting similarly strong reviews here. The fifth spot is a tough won, but I'm betting on Lachman's evocative, 1950s styled cinematography.

Other Possibilities

6.

Janusz Kaminski- Bridge of Spies

7.

Dariusz Wolski- The Martian

8.

Danny Cohen- The Danish Girl

9.

Maryse Alberti- Creed

10.

Cary Joji Fukunaga- Beasts of No Nation

1.

John Williams- Star Wars: Episode VII- The Force AwakensWilliams is going for his 50th career nomination, and everything we've heard thus far suggests he'll get it. The category isn't as overflowing as it usually is, and Williams can really get in for just about anything he does (The Book Thief anyone?).

2.

Ennio Morricone- The Hateful EightMorricone has yet to win an Oscar, and his work here brings to mind some of his earlier, classic westerns. If Hateful Eight plays well, and it probably will, then he'll likely be a major force here.

3.

Thomas Newman- Bridge of SpiesNewman's been nominated 12 times without winning, and could very well go for a 13th here. While it's not as showy as some of his earlier work, and at times hues too heavily towards a John Williams sound-alike, its solid, respectable work from respected composer. Overall love for the movie will likely help too.

4.

Carter Burwell- CarolBurwell's been around for a while without a nod. That, plus the fact that Carol seems pretty well liked, lead me to believe that he'll make the cut.

5.

Michael Brook- BrooklynThis one is probably my most out-there choice here, but I think Brooklyn's gonna be strong in the below the line categories, so why not take it here too?

Other Possibilities

6. Alexandre Desplat- The Danish Girl
7. Ryûichi Sakamoto- The Revenant
8. Howard Shore- Spotlight
9. Harry Gregson-Williams- The Martian
10. Michael Giacchino- Inside Out

1.

"See You Again"- Furious 7Could a Fast & Furious movie actually get an Oscar nom? It certainly looks possible at the moment, maybe even probable. The song is a hit, so it may attract a few more viewers. Plus, the song's got a lot of emotion behind it, and nominees here are frequently chosen for how much of an impact they'll make on the telecast. This would be a big moment. And, finally, it's a pretty good song.

2.

"One Kind of Love"- Love & MercyVery similar to what I said before; the movie, about Brian Wilson's life and struggles, was pretty well received, and Wilson himself wrote and performed the song. It would be both honoring a decent movie, and a music legend.

3.

"Til it Happens to You"- The Hunting GroundIt's a big, stirring song from an incredibly topical documentary. It'll be a strong contender.

4.

"Simple Song #3"- YouthIt's a song from a decently reviewed movie. In such a slim year for the category, that's the best you can hope for.

5.

"Cold One"- Ricki and the FlashThey may just wanna get Meryl Streep involved in the show somehow. Plus, it's this or songs from Fifty Shades of Grey.

Other Possibilities

6."Love Me Like You Do"- Fifty Shades of Grey
7."Earned It"- Fifty Shades of Grey
8."So Long"- Concussion
9."Writing's On The Wall"- Spectre
10."Salted Wound"- Fifty Shades of Grey

1. Margaret Sixel- Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Tom McArdle- Spotlight
3. Stephen Mirrione- The Revenant
4. Pietro Scalia- The Martian
5. Fred Raskin- The Hateful Eight

Other Possibilities
6. Michael Kahn- Bridge of Spies
7. Claudia Castello & Michael P. Shawver- Creed
8. Elliot Graham- Steve Jobs
9. Joe Walker- Sicario
10. Affonso Goncalves- Carol

1.

Carol

2.

Bridge of Spies

3.

The Danish Girl

4.

The Hateful Eight

5.

Star Wars: Episode VII- The Force Awakens

Other Possibilities

6.

Brooklyn

7.

Cinderella

8.

The Revenant

9.

Mad Max: Fury Road

10.

The Martian

1.

Sandy Powell- Carol

2.

Sandy Powell- Cinderella

3.

Paco Delgado- The Danish Girl

4.

Odile Dicks-Mireaux- Brooklyn

5.

Jacqueline West- The Revenant

Other Possibilities

6.

Jenny Beavan- Mad Max: Fury Road

7.

Kate Hawley- Crimson Peak

8.

Janet Patterson- Far From the Madding Crowd

9.

Courtney Hoffman- The Hateful Eight

10.

Kasia Walicka-Maimone- Bridge of Spies

1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. The Martian
3. Star Wars: Episode VII-The Force Awakens
4. The Revenant
5. Jurassic World
Other Possibilities
6. Inside Out
7. Straight Outta Compton
8. Creed
9. The Hateful Eight
10. Sicario

1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. The Martian
3. The Revenant
4. The Hateful Eight
5. Inside Out
Other Possibilities
6. Star Wars: Episode VII-The Force Awakens
7. Creed
8. Spectre
9. Jurassic World
10. Sicario

1.

Star Wars: Episode VII-The Force Awakens
Big movies usually do well here, and what's bigger than this? The movie's, presumed, reliance on practical makeup over CGI make this a real contender. Plus, the last time J.J. Abrams took over a dormant space franchise, Star Trek, it won here.

2.

The Danish Girl
Obviously.

3.

Black Mass
Not the showiest, but it's the type of work that got Foxcatcher in here last year.

Other Possibilities

4.

Mad Max: Fury Road

5.

The Revenant

6.

Crimson Peak

7.

The Hateful Eight

8.

Macbeth

9.

Carol

10.

Far from the Madding Crowd

1.

Star Wars: Episode VII-The Force Awakens
All but Revenge of the Sith made the cut here, and everything that we've seen so far makes The Force Awakens look like a genuine spectacle.

2.

The Martian
Likely best picture nominee with strong special effects. If Star Wars disappoints, this could do some damage.

3.

Jurassic World
Not the best received movie, but a still a huge one. The biggest movie of the year frequently makes it in somewhere, only in 2013 and 2007 (Catching Fire, Spider-Man 3) has the No. 1 movie of the year not gotten some kind of nod. Add in the admittedly strong work here, and it's likely.

4.

Mad Max: Fury Road
Not the most overt work, but still some of the strongest. The movie is gonna clean up in the tech categories, and that's probably not gonna stop here.

5.

Avengers: Age of Ultron
Not their best work, but Marvel's been in this category for the last three years, and usually by surprise.

Other Possibilities

6.

The Walk

7.

The Revenant

8.

Ant-Man

9.

Ex Machina

10.

In the Heart of the Sea