91st Academy Awards Predictions (Goldderby)

Best Picture

1. Lady Bird
2. Dunkirk
3. The Post
4. Get Out
5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
6. The Shape of Water
7. Call Me By Your Name
8. The Florida Project
9. Darkest Hour
10. The Big Sick

Current Projected Winner: Lady Bird

This could be the most unsure year at the Academy Awards, where there is no clear frontrunner. Dunkirk was for a little while, but now it seems to be mixed in with a bunch of others. As of right now, the odds are split pretty heavily between Lady Bird, Dunkirk, The Post, Get Out, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and The Shape of Water, with Lady Bird having the slight edge at the moment, and Three Billboards' odds rising.

Best Director

1. Christopher Nolan for Dunkirk
2. Guillermo Del Toro for The Shape of Water
3. Greta Gerwig for Lady Bird
4. Steven Spielberg for The Post
5. Jordan Peele for Get Out

Current Projected Winner: Christopher Nolan for Dunkirk

The only two surefire nominations are Christopher Nolan and Guillermo Del Toro, for their work in Dunkirk and The Shape of Water. Any one else is just pure guesswork. Martin McDonagh's odds are also rising for his work in Three Billboards, Luca Guadagnino's are not as strong as they once were for his work for Call Me Your Name, whilst Spielberg may not last long in the odds. Whoever else gets nominated will probably help in determining potential frontrunners, because the Best Picture winner is usually also nominated in the Best Director category, with Argo and Driving Miss Daisy being the only two exceptions in the last two decades. If Greta Gerwig doesn't get in, which based on how the other award shows like the Golden Globes and BAFTA went is a possibility, there's a pretty good chance that Lady Bird's chances of winning the top prize will drop like a rock. Make no mistake, the fight for the grand prize is almost certainly going to be Nolan v. Del Toro, both directors considered long overdue, not just for a win but for a nomination for Best Director.

Best Actress

1. Frances McDormand for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. Saoirse Ronan for Lady Bird
3. Sally Hawkins for The Shape of Water
4. Meryl Streep for The Post
5. Margot Robbie for I, Tonya

Current Projected Winner: Frances Mcdormand for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

These are the five general predictions by a wide margin. The only possibility for spoilers are Jessica Chastain for Molly's Game and Michelle Williams for All the Money in the World. The top three though, are almost certainly guarantees. Hawkins and Ronan have never won, but they have been nominated, Hawkins once and Ronan twice, and McDormand won all the way back in 1997 for her work in Fargo. Whether that will factor in is currently unknown, but for the moment, McDormand leads the charge.

Best Actor

1. Gary Oldman for Darkest Hour
2. Timothee Chalamet for Call Me By Your Name
3. Daniel Day-Lewis for Phantom Thread
4. James Franco for The Disaster Artist
5. Daniel Kaluuya for Get Out

Current Projected Winner: Gary Oldman for Darkest Hour

The top 4 seem to be the safe bets for this race, while the fifth spot seems to be close, with either Daniel Kaluuya getting in for his role as the main character in a horror film (a rarity for the Academy should it happen), and Tom Hanks for The Post,, which would be the safer conventional Academy route, with Jake Gyllenhaal having a very slight chance of getting in for his work in Stronger. The winner here is almost certainly going to be Gary Oldman, for his career defining role as Winston Churchill. He's cleaning up in other award shows, and there's nothing to indicate that he's going to miss out here. Timothy Chalamet could sneak in there, but the odds of that happening seem remote.

Best Animated Short

1. In a Heartbeat
2. Dear Basketball
3. Cradle
4. Negative Space
5. Lou

Current Projected Winner: In a Heartbeat

If a Disney or Pixar short isn't a frontrunner in this category, then all bets are off. Lou was not loved by people, and even has a chance of missing out, which would mean there's a chance that all the nominations in this category, could be independent short films. As of right now, In a Heartbeat, a story of a closeted gay kid falling in love with another boy, is the clear frontrunner, with Dear Basketball, a poem written and narrated by Kobe Bryant that was animated, having a solid chance. The Top 5 seem to be good bets, but in this category, you should always expect a surprise, because there's very little to compare it to, so there's a chance that the top picks may not even get nominated.

Best Live Action Short

1. DeKalb Elementary
2. The Silent Child
3. Watu Wote/ All of Us
4. My Nephew Emmett
5. Rise of a Star

Current Projected Winner: DeKalb Elementary

Another category that's difficult to predict, right now the clear frontrunner is DeKalb Elementary a short film that dramatizes what it would be like to be in an elementary school shooting. In terms of the nomination, the top 4 are probably safe, but the fifth slot will either be Rise of a Star a short about a ballerina being forced to grapple with a secret, and Facing Mecca a short about a pensioner helping a Syrian refugee bury his wife.