It snagged 9 other nomination, won the Golden Globe for Best Comedy or Musical, and of the nominations, it currently has the highest rating on Rotten Tomatoes, Metacritic and IMDB. Plus, it's basically a love letter to the cinema and the Oscar people will eat it up. Plus it's in black and white AND is silent.
Hugo gained the most nominations this year with 11 nominations. Some people may think they won't go with it because it's a kids film, but it's very visually well shot, and it also pays tribute to one of the greatest directors, not only of the silent era, but ever. Plus it's directed by Martin Scorcese. Don't count this one out.
The Descendants won the Golden Globe for Best Drama. It's the only R rated movie in the bunch, so maybe the streak that started with Crash will continue. It has a decent chance of winning, but it's got the fact that both The Artist and Hugo are very cinema friendly films and it's going up against them. Maybe the charm of George Clooney will win some of votes.
This film was loved by critics when it first was released 6 months ago, and today it was voted the 2nd best reveiwed film of the year on Metacritic, behind only The Artist. However, the film's slow pacing alienated a lot of people, including some critics, and because of this, it's not entirely likely it will be picked.
The Academy seems to love nominating films dealing with the issue of prejudice and racism (To Kill a Mockingbird comes to mind) but I don't think it's ever won. Plus, some people loved it, while others thought it was overlong and was trying to appeal to Oscar voters. Don't expect this one to be called when the envolope is unfolded.
Wow. How this got nominated absolutely boggles my mind. The critical reception was lukewarm at best, the audience reaction wasn't that much better, and it's also got a rotten on Rotten Tomatoes. Watching the trailer I thought I was watching "Oscar Baiting" the film. If this film actually wins, there will be riots shortly after the Oscars are over.
Chance of winning. 0.01%
This is my list of the 2012 Best Picture nominations with the film's that will most likely win the top prize, in order from most likely to least likely.