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Added by garfield2710 on 25 Jan 2012 03:57
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Order I think the chances of a film winning Best P

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People who added this item 1327 Average listal rating (849 ratings) 7.9 IMDB Rating 8
The Artist (2011)
It snagged 9 other nomination, won the Golden Globe for Best Comedy or Musical, and of the nominations, it currently has the highest rating on Rotten Tomatoes, Metacritic and IMDB. Plus, it's basically a love letter to the cinema and the Oscar people will eat it up. Plus it's in black and white AND is silent.

Chance of winning. 45%
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People who added this item 1736 Average listal rating (1106 ratings) 7.4 IMDB Rating 7.6
Hugo (2011)
Hugo gained the most nominations this year with 11 nominations. Some people may think they won't go with it because it's a kids film, but it's very visually well shot, and it also pays tribute to one of the greatest directors, not only of the silent era, but ever. Plus it's directed by Martin Scorcese. Don't count this one out.

Chance of winning. 25%
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People who added this item 1091 Average listal rating (776 ratings) 7.1 IMDB Rating 7.3
The Descendants won the Golden Globe for Best Drama. It's the only R rated movie in the bunch, so maybe the streak that started with Crash will continue. It has a decent chance of winning, but it's got the fact that both The Artist and Hugo are very cinema friendly films and it's going up against them. Maybe the charm of George Clooney will win some of votes.

Chance of winning. 15%
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People who added this item 1547 Average listal rating (855 ratings) 6.9 IMDB Rating 6.7
This film was loved by critics when it first was released 6 months ago, and today it was voted the 2nd best reveiwed film of the year on Metacritic, behind only The Artist. However, the film's slow pacing alienated a lot of people, including some critics, and because of this, it's not entirely likely it will be picked.

Chance of winning. 10%
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People who added this item 1367 Average listal rating (912 ratings) 7.8 IMDB Rating 8.1
The Help (2011)
The Academy seems to love nominating films dealing with the issue of prejudice and racism (To Kill a Mockingbird comes to mind) but I don't think it's ever won. Plus, some people loved it, while others thought it was overlong and was trying to appeal to Oscar voters. Don't expect this one to be called when the envolope is unfolded.

Chance of winning. 2%
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People who added this item 996 Average listal rating (691 ratings) 7.1 IMDB Rating 7.6
Moneyball (2011)
Moneyball is also another of those films that some people loved, others thought it was just okay. If the film has any chance of winning at a nomination, it would be for Brad Pitt's performance.

Chance of winning. 1%
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People who added this item 879 Average listal rating (541 ratings) 6.9 IMDB Rating 7.2
War Horse (2011)
War dramas are pretty good Oscar contenders, and a few have even won, but this one is not likely to win due to it's positive, but not critically acclaimed response.

Chance of winning. 1%
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People who added this item 1928 Average listal rating (1322 ratings) 7.5 IMDB Rating 7.7
Woody Allen is a great director. I've heard a lot of people say that this is a fun lighthearted fantasy comedy, but it's going up against some tough competition. Don't bet money on this one.

Chance of winning. 0.99%
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Wow. How this got nominated absolutely boggles my mind. The critical reception was lukewarm at best, the audience reaction wasn't that much better, and it's also got a rotten on Rotten Tomatoes. Watching the trailer I thought I was watching "Oscar Baiting" the film. If this film actually wins, there will be riots shortly after the Oscars are over.

Chance of winning. 0.01%
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This is my list of the 2012 Best Picture nominations with the film's that will most likely win the top prize, in order from most likely to least likely.

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