Order I think the chances of a film winning Best P
1067 7.9 8.11. The Artist (2011)
It snagged 9 other nomination, won the Golden Globe for Best Comedy or Musical, and of the nominations, it currently has the highest rating on Rotten Tomatoes, Metacritic and IMDB. Plus, it's basically a love letter to the cinema and the Oscar people will eat it up. Plus it's in black and white AND is silent.
Chance of winning. 45%
1374 7.5 7.62. Hugo (2011)
Hugo gained the most nominations this year with 11 nominations. Some people may think they won't go with it because it's a kids film, but it's very visually well shot, and it also pays tribute to one of the greatest directors, not only of the silent era, but ever. Plus it's directed by Martin Scorcese. Don't count this one out.
Chance of winning. 25%
855 7.1 7.43. The Descendants (2011)
The Descendants won the Golden Globe for Best Drama. It's the only R rated movie in the bunch, so maybe the streak that started with Crash will continue. It has a decent chance of winning, but it's got the fact that both The Artist and Hugo are very cinema friendly films and it's going up against them. Maybe the charm of George Clooney will win some of votes.
Chance of winning. 15%
1278 6.9 6.84. The Tree of Life (2011)
This film was loved by critics when it first was released 6 months ago, and today it was voted the 2nd best reveiwed film of the year on Metacritic, behind only The Artist. However, the film's slow pacing alienated a lot of people, including some critics, and because of this, it's not entirely likely it will be picked.
Chance of winning. 10%
1063 7.8 85. The Help (2011)
The Academy seems to love nominating films dealing with the issue of prejudice and racism (To Kill a Mockingbird comes to mind) but I don't think it's ever won. Plus, some people loved it, while others thought it was overlong and was trying to appeal to Oscar voters. Don't expect this one to be called when the envolope is unfolded.
Chance of winning. 2%
804 7.1 7.66. Moneyball (2011)
Moneyball is also another of those films that some people loved, others thought it was just okay. If the film has any chance of winning at a nomination, it would be for Brad Pitt's performance.
Chance of winning. 1%
666 7 7.27. War Horse (2011)
War dramas are pretty good Oscar contenders, and a few have even won, but this one is not likely to win due to it's positive, but not critically acclaimed response.
Chance of winning. 1%
1543 7.6 7.78. Midnight in Paris (2011)
Woody Allen is a great director. I've heard a lot of people say that this is a fun lighthearted fantasy comedy, but it's going up against some tough competition. Don't bet money on this one.
Chance of winning. 0.99%
446 6.9 6.89. Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close (2011)
Wow. How this got nominated absolutely boggles my mind. The critical reception was lukewarm at best, the audience reaction wasn't that much better, and it's also got a rotten on Rotten Tomatoes. Watching the trailer I thought I was watching "Oscar Baiting" the film. If this film actually wins, there will be riots shortly after the Oscars are over.
Chance of winning. 0.01%